2008 y 22nd - climate.be fileIt’s a complex stuff Time Space day month1 10 year 100 year 10,000 km...
Transcript of 2008 y 22nd - climate.be fileIt’s a complex stuff Time Space day month1 10 year 100 year 10,000 km...
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The recent decadal variability of the sea ice cover as viewed
by a numerical model
F. Massonnet and the LIM group
UNITER Brussels, 2nd December 2011
Centre de recherche sur la Terre et le climat Georges Lemaître
Earth and Life Institute
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The passport of sea ice
Name: Sea ice
Other names: Frozen
seawater, « Banquise »
Place of birth: Polar
regions
Date of birth: End of
summer
Employment: Climate
component
htt
p:/
/rst
.gsf
c.n
asa.
gov/
Sect
14
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t14
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It’s a complex stuff
Time
Space
100 year 10 year 1 year 1 month 1 day
10,000 km
1000 km
100 km
Area
Winds
1 mm
1 m
1 km
Rah
mst
orf
, 20
02
Thickness
Peto
ukh
ov
abd
Sem
eno
v, 2
01
0
Wettlaufer et al, 1997
earthobservatory.nasa.gov
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• Field expeditions: min. 2 months
• Sampling issues
• Observed variables
• Short time record (>1960s)
It’s not next door
« Understand complex system with limited observations »
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How numerical models can help
Sea ice model
FORECASTS HINDCASTS
PROCESSES
Continous in time
Stro
eve
et a
l., 2
00
7
Global spatial coverage
Zhan
g, 2
00
7
Arc
tic
sea
ice
exte
nt,
10
6 k
m²
Year
1983-2007 thickness changes [cm/decade]
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Arctic sea ice: clear changes
Arctic sea ice thickness (Louvain-la-Neuve sea Ice Model)
Average September 1979-2000 September 2011
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Antarctic sea ice: complex changes
Anomalies of sea ice volume, linear fits +/- 2 std
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Sea ice
• is a small component that highly matters
• exhibits strong variability on various timescales
• models are valuable tools
Take home message
This presentation is available on-line: www.climate.be/u/fmasson
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References
- Libération (Mardi 22 Janvier 2008), « Un point de non-retour pour la géographie polaire » - Petoukhov V., Semenov V. A. (2010), A link between reduced Barents‐Kara sea ice and cold winter extremes over northern continents, Journal of Geophysical Research 115 D21111 - Rahmstorf S. (2002), Ocean circulation and climate during the past 120,000 years, Nature 419 207-214 - Stroeve J., Holland M. M., Meier W., Scambos T., Serreze M. (2007), Arctic sea ice decline: Faster than forecast, Geophysical Research Letters 34 L09501 - Wettlaufer J. S., Grae Worster M., Huppert H. E. (1997), The phase evolution of young sea ice, Geophysical Research Letters 24 1251-1254 - Zhang J. (2007), Increasing Antarctic sea ice under Warming Atmospheric and Oceanic conditions, Journal of Climate 20 2515-2529