2008 – Thoughts To Ponder IPAA Private Capital Conference January 16, 2008 Dan Pickering.
-
Upload
hilary-harmon -
Category
Documents
-
view
216 -
download
2
Transcript of 2008 – Thoughts To Ponder IPAA Private Capital Conference January 16, 2008 Dan Pickering.
![Page 1: 2008 – Thoughts To Ponder IPAA Private Capital Conference January 16, 2008 Dan Pickering.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081519/56649e715503460f94b705aa/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
2008 – Thoughts To Ponder
IPAA Private Capital Conference
January 16, 2008
Dan Pickering
![Page 2: 2008 – Thoughts To Ponder IPAA Private Capital Conference January 16, 2008 Dan Pickering.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081519/56649e715503460f94b705aa/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
2
What’s It Going To Be?
…or Uh-Oh?
Yippee!!
![Page 3: 2008 – Thoughts To Ponder IPAA Private Capital Conference January 16, 2008 Dan Pickering.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081519/56649e715503460f94b705aa/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
3
Who Is Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co.? Energy Specialists
Research, Investment Banking, Property A&D
~ 50 Employees
Houston/Denver Offices
Our clients are:
□ Institutional Investors
□ Companies Seeking Capital
□ Companies Buying/Selling Assets
![Page 4: 2008 – Thoughts To Ponder IPAA Private Capital Conference January 16, 2008 Dan Pickering.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081519/56649e715503460f94b705aa/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
4
$40
$45
$50
$55
$60
$65
$70
$75
$80
$85
$90
$95
$100
Jan-05 Apr-05 Jul-05 Oct-05 Jan-06 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08
$/b
bl
Oil strip 1/14/082008 $92.162009 $88.122010 $86.45
NYMEX Current Month Oil Price
![Page 5: 2008 – Thoughts To Ponder IPAA Private Capital Conference January 16, 2008 Dan Pickering.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081519/56649e715503460f94b705aa/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
5
$40
$45
$50
$55
$60
$65
$70
$75
$80
$85
$90
$95
$100
Jan-05 Apr-05 Jul-05 Oct-05 Jan-06 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08
$/b
bl
Oil strip 1/14/082008 $92.162009 $88.122010 $86.45
What If Oil Falls by $20/bbl?
![Page 6: 2008 – Thoughts To Ponder IPAA Private Capital Conference January 16, 2008 Dan Pickering.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081519/56649e715503460f94b705aa/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
6
What If It Doesn’t?
$40
$45
$50
$55
$60
$65
$70
$75
$80
$85
$90
$95
$100
Jan-05 Apr-05 Jul-05 Oct-05 Jan-06 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08
$/b
bl
Oil strip 1/14/082008 $92.162009 $88.122010 $86.45
![Page 7: 2008 – Thoughts To Ponder IPAA Private Capital Conference January 16, 2008 Dan Pickering.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081519/56649e715503460f94b705aa/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
7
What If China / India Slow?Cumulative Growth In Oil
Consumption2003 - 2006
Incremental Demand ~ 5.1 mmbbls/day
125
~2,500
~2,000
660
-160-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
US Europe Rest of OECD China/India Rest of Non-OECD
kbb
ls/d
ay
China / India
![Page 8: 2008 – Thoughts To Ponder IPAA Private Capital Conference January 16, 2008 Dan Pickering.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081519/56649e715503460f94b705aa/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
8
What If China / India Accelerate?
![Page 9: 2008 – Thoughts To Ponder IPAA Private Capital Conference January 16, 2008 Dan Pickering.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081519/56649e715503460f94b705aa/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
9
Does Inventory Matter?450
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
850
J an-97 J an-98 J an-99 J an-00 J an-01 J an-02 J an-03 J an-04 J an-05 J an-06 J an-07 J an-08 J an-09
Oil
& K
ey p
roduct
s in
vento
ry, m
mbbls
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
WTI O
il Pri
ce, $
/bbl
Inventories (Scale Inverted) Oil Price
Scarcity Gap?
![Page 10: 2008 – Thoughts To Ponder IPAA Private Capital Conference January 16, 2008 Dan Pickering.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081519/56649e715503460f94b705aa/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
10
How Scary Is The World?
Iran
Venezuela
Mexico
West Africa
Iraq
Russia
Deepwater
The Unknown
![Page 11: 2008 – Thoughts To Ponder IPAA Private Capital Conference January 16, 2008 Dan Pickering.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081519/56649e715503460f94b705aa/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
11
What If The Winter Stays Cold?
2005A $8.912006A $6.732007A $6.95
Henry Hub Realized Price
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
Aug-05 Dec-05 Apr-06 Aug-06 Dec-06 Apr-07 Aug-07 Dec-07
$/m
cf
![Page 12: 2008 – Thoughts To Ponder IPAA Private Capital Conference January 16, 2008 Dan Pickering.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081519/56649e715503460f94b705aa/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
12
What If Gas Trades At $9/mcf?
Source: Smith Bits, TPH
U.S. Rig Count by Operator Type
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
1/5/
01
4/5/
01
7/5/
01
10/5
/01
1/5/
02
4/5/
02
7/5/
02
10/5
/02
1/5/
03
4/5/
03
7/5/
03
10/5
/03
1/5/
04
4/5/
04
7/5/
04
10/5
/04
1/5/
05
4/5/
05
7/5/
05
10/5
/05
1/5/
06
4/5/
06
7/5/
06
10/5
/06
1/5/
07
4/5/
07
7/5/
07
10/5
/07
1/5/
08
MajorLarge Public E&PSmall Public E&PPrivate E&PUtility-Owned
![Page 13: 2008 – Thoughts To Ponder IPAA Private Capital Conference January 16, 2008 Dan Pickering.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081519/56649e715503460f94b705aa/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
13
What If U.S. Drilling Holds Steady?
U.S. Onshore 43.2 44.9 46.4 +1.5
U.S. Offshore 7.5 7.0 7.0 0
LNG 1.5 2.2 3.0 +0.8
Canada Imports
7.9 7.7 6.9 -0.8
Total Supply 60.1 61.8 63.3 +1.5
+2.4% y/y*All figures in bcf/day
2006 2007 2008
2008 Gas Supply Snapshot
![Page 14: 2008 – Thoughts To Ponder IPAA Private Capital Conference January 16, 2008 Dan Pickering.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081519/56649e715503460f94b705aa/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
14
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 2009
bcf
/d
RasGas II-T5; 0.6bcf/d
Eq. Guinea;0.5bcf/d
Snohvit;0.6bcf/d
Bonny T-6;0.6bcf/d
QatarGas II - T4;1bcf/d
QatarGas II - T5;1bcf/d
Yemen 0.9bcf/d;Tangguh 1.0bcf/d;
RasGas III, T-6; 1.0bcf/d;NWShelf, T-5 0.5bcf/d
RasGas III, T-7 1.0bcf/d;Camisea 0.6bcf/d;
QatarGas III 1.0bcf/d;Sakhalin II 1.3bcf/d
Is There Too Much LNG?
2008E = +5.5 bcf/day2009E = +4 bcf/day
Global Supply
![Page 15: 2008 – Thoughts To Ponder IPAA Private Capital Conference January 16, 2008 Dan Pickering.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081519/56649e715503460f94b705aa/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
15
What If The Credit Crunch Lingers?E&P 2008 Free Cash Flow @ $7/mcf
($1,000,000)
($500,000)
$0
$500,000
$1,000,000
$1,500,000
$2,000,000
EO
G
SD
SW
N
NF
X
CH
K
KW
K
RR
C
GD
P
PX
P
UP
L
CR
ZO
GM
XR
AR
D
BE
XP
PL
LL
RE
XX
CX
G
XC
O
BD
E
SG
Y
XT
O
DV
N
AP
C
AP
A
E&P Companies
Fre
e C
ash
Flo
w (
$000
)
Free Cash Flow ($000)
![Page 16: 2008 – Thoughts To Ponder IPAA Private Capital Conference January 16, 2008 Dan Pickering.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081519/56649e715503460f94b705aa/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
16
What About Alternative Energy?
![Page 17: 2008 – Thoughts To Ponder IPAA Private Capital Conference January 16, 2008 Dan Pickering.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081519/56649e715503460f94b705aa/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
17
Elections And Energy?
![Page 18: 2008 – Thoughts To Ponder IPAA Private Capital Conference January 16, 2008 Dan Pickering.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081519/56649e715503460f94b705aa/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
18
What If We Were In Another Business?!
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
1.1
1.2
1.3
Jan-
06
Feb
-06
Mar
-06
Apr
-06
May
-06
Jun-
06
Jul-0
6
Aug
-06
Sep
-06
Oct
-06
Nov
-06
Dec
-06
Jan-
07
Feb
-07
Mar
-07
Apr
-07
May
-07
Jun-
07
Jul-0
7
Aug
-07
Sep
-07
Oct
-07
Nov
-07
Dec
-07
Jan-
08
Inde
xed
to 1
/1/2
006
FinancialsRetail
![Page 19: 2008 – Thoughts To Ponder IPAA Private Capital Conference January 16, 2008 Dan Pickering.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081519/56649e715503460f94b705aa/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
19
Conclusions
Everything Is Intertwined
You want lower oil prices!
Gas Is Global
Risk Management
Alternatives Are Real…And Small
Energy Is Still The Best Game In Town
![Page 20: 2008 – Thoughts To Ponder IPAA Private Capital Conference January 16, 2008 Dan Pickering.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081519/56649e715503460f94b705aa/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
20
Put in Final Presentation Slide Here
Tudor, Pickering & Co. Securities, Inc. is a leading institutional brokerage firm focusing on energy-sector research for institutional investors. The Company, a NASD broker-dealer, develops investment ideas for our clients by actively covering the E&P and oil
service industries, while monitoring energy subsectors such as coal, nuclear, tankers and alternative energy.
In addition to research activities, Tudor, Pickering has executed share repurchases and helped energy companies raise equity capital via co-manager and syndicate positions in numerous energy offerings including CPX, HERO, WARR, BAS, XCO.
Our research is provided to institutional clients via published reports, concise emails, and through direct interaction with our highly rated analysts and unique, specialized sales force.
Tudor Pickering has 42 employees working from our main Houston office and two satellite offices in Denver, Colorado and New Orleans, Louisiana. The firm was established in February 2004 as Pickering Energy Partners and combined with Tudor Capital in
February 2007.
Contact UsHouston: 713-333-2960Denver: 303-300-1902
New Orleans: 504-371-5563
![Page 21: 2008 – Thoughts To Ponder IPAA Private Capital Conference January 16, 2008 Dan Pickering.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081519/56649e715503460f94b705aa/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
21
Disclaimer
TudorPickering does not provide accounting, tax or legal advice. In addition, we mutually agree that, subject to applicable law, you (and your employees, representatives and other agents) may disclose any aspects of any potential transaction or structure described herein that are necessary to support any U.S. federal income tax benefits, and all materials of any kind (including tax opinions and other tax analyses) related to those benefits, with no limitations imposed by TudorPickering.
The information contained herein is confidential (except for information relating to United States tax issues) and may not be reproduced in whole or in part.
TudorPickering assumes no responsibility for independent verification of third-party information and has relied on such information being complete and accurate in all material respects. To the extent such information includes estimates and forecasts of future financial performance (including estimates of potential cost savings and synergies) prepared by, reviewed or discussed with the managements of your company and/ or other potential transaction participants or obtained from public sources, we have assumed that such estimates and forecasts have been reasonably prepared on bases reflecting the best currently available estimates and judgments of such managements (or, with respect to estimates and forecasts obtained from public sources, represent reasonable estimates). These materials were designed for use by specific persons familiar with the business and the affairs of your company and TudorPickering materials.
Under no circumstances is this presentation to be used or considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy, any security. Prior to making any trade, you should discuss with your professional tax, accounting, or regulatory advisers how such particular trade(s) affect you. This brief statement does not disclose all of the risks and other significant aspects of entering into any particular transaction.