Survey on Software Defect Prediction (PhD Qualifying Examination Presentation)
2008 Prediction Survey (NVCA)
Transcript of 2008 Prediction Survey (NVCA)
11
National Venture Capital AssociationNational Venture Capital Association
2008 Predictions Survey2008 Predictions Survey
All data embargoed until:All data embargoed until:
December 17, 2007
22
NVCA 2008 Venture Capital NVCA 2008 Venture Capital Predictions SurveyPredictions Survey
Second annual predictions surveySecond annual predictions survey Conducted in December 2007Conducted in December 2007 More than 170 respondentsMore than 170 respondents Quotes and press release available – Quotes and press release available –
contact Emily Mendell (610-565-3904)contact Emily Mendell (610-565-3904)
44
How much will venture capitalists invest in How much will venture capitalists invest in 2008?2008?
3.5%
71.3%
24.6%
0.6%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
10-19 BN 20-29 BN 30-39 BN 40 + BN
Mean = $26.8 billionMedian = $27 billionRange: $18 – 43 billion
Source: NVCA 2008 Predictions Survey
55
Of which single global investment region Of which single global investment region are you most leery? are you most leery?
1.8%
2.4%
2.4%
8.4%
16.8%
27.5%
36.5%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
US
India
Canada
Other Asia
Eastern Europe
China
South America
Source: NVCA 2008 Predictions Survey
66
Predictions for high growth investment Predictions for high growth investment sectors in 2008sectors in 2008
36.4%9.1%
54.5%
31.9%12.7%
55.4%
25.0%10.4%
64.6%
8.4%12.0%
79.5%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
Internet
Biotech
Media
CleanTech
Flat Decrease Increase
Source: NVCA 2008 Predictions Survey
77
Predictions for moderate growth Predictions for moderate growth investment sectors in 2008investment sectors in 2008
34.9%
22.3%
42.8%
49.4%
12.0%
38.6%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Wireless Telecom
Med Devices
Flat Decrease Increase
Source: NVCA 2008 Predictions Survey
88
Predictions for lower growth investment Predictions for lower growth investment sectors in 2008 sectors in 2008
48.8%
21.1%
30.1%
36.6%
49.7%
13.7%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Software
Semiconductors
Flat Decrease Increase
Source: NVCA 2008 Predictions Survey
99
Which single industry will be Which single industry will be overvaluedovervalued in in 2008?2008?
61%
18%12%
9%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Cleantech Internet Media Other
Source: NVCA 2007 Predictions Survey
1010
Which single industry will be Which single industry will be undervaluedundervalued in 2008?in 2008?
28%
23%
12%11% 10%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Semiconductors Software Medical Devices None Biotech
Source: NVCA 2008 Predictions Survey
1212
In 2008, the venture-backed U.S. IPO In 2008, the venture-backed U.S. IPO market will…market will…
59%22%
19%
Continue Recovery Remain Flat Weaken
Source: NVCA 2008 Predictions Survey
15 % faster pace than 200720 % slower pace to 200724 % equal pace to 2007
1313
Which stock exchanges hold the most Which stock exchanges hold the most promise for growth for venture backed promise for growth for venture backed
companies in 2008? companies in 2008? 69.6%
19.3% 16.4% 14.6% 11.1%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
NASDAQ AIM HongKong
Shenzen Bombay
Source: NVCA 2008 Predictions Survey
1414
In 2008, transaction In 2008, transaction volumevolume in the venture- in the venture-backed M&A market will…backed M&A market will…
55%
15%
30%
Increase Decrease Remain level
Source: NVCA 2008 Predictions Survey
1515
In 2008, transaction In 2008, transaction valuevalue in the venture- in the venture-backed M&A market will…backed M&A market will…
35%
27%
38%
Increase Decrease Remain level
Source: NVCA 2008 Predictions Survey
1717
On average, venture capital funds On average, venture capital funds raised in 2008 will be …raised in 2008 will be …
16%
41%
43%
Smaller Larger Same Size
Source: NVCA 2008 Predictions Survey
1818
In 2008, we will see the number of In 2008, we will see the number of venture capital firms…venture capital firms…
17%
26%57%
Increase Stay the same Decrease
Source: NVCA 2008 Predictions Survey
2020
How will venture capital performance How will venture capital performance change over time?change over time?
77%
5%
18%
Improve Decline Remain Same
81%
4%
15%
Improve Decline Stay Same
Short Term Returns (1-5 years) Long Term Returns (5-10 years)
Source: NVCA 2008 Predictions Survey
2222
How will the US economy trend in How will the US economy trend in 2008?2008?
19%
61%
20%
Imrpove Decline Unchanged
Source: NVCA 2008 Predictions Survey
2323
Will the sub-prime credit woes be Will the sub-prime credit woes be contained in 2008?contained in 2008?
60%
40%
Yes No
Source: NVCA 2008 Predictions Survey
2424
Where will the price of oil be in Where will the price of oil be in December 2008?December 2008?
55%41%
4%
Above $92/barrel Below $92/barrel At $92/barrel
Source: NVCA 2008 Predictions Survey
2525
What will happen to the value of the What will happen to the value of the US dollar in 2008? US dollar in 2008?
39%
42%
19%
Increase Decrease Remain level
Source: NVCA 2008 Predictions Survey
2626
Who will be sworn in as US president in Who will be sworn in as US president in January 2009? January 2009?
39%
21%
16%
11%13%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
HillaryClinton
RudyGiuliani
BarackObama
MittRomney
Other
Source: NVCA 2008 Predictions Survey
2828
VC Fundraising 1996 – 2007 (thru Q3)VC Fundraising 1996 – 2007 (thru Q3)
Source: VentureXpert™ Database by VE & NVCA
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
$B Gross 10.1 11.6 18.1 30.6 58.2 106.6 38.0 3.8 10.6 19.0 28.3 31.7 20.7
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 20069mos 2007
2929
Venture Capital Investment1995 – Q3 2007
Source: PricewaterhouseCoopers/National Venture Capital Association MoneyTree™ Report; Data: Thomson Financial
$0
$20,000
$40,000
$60,000
$80,000
$100,000
$120,000
$ M
illi
on
In
ve
ste
d
1995
199
6
1997
199
8
199
9
2000
200
1
2002
200
3
2004
2005
2006
200
79M
3030
Venture Exit Counts- Venture Exit Counts- IPOs and M&A by YearIPOs and M&A by Year
Source: Thomson Financial/National Venture Capital Association
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Year
Nu
mb
er o
f Is
sues
M&A
IPO
M&A 17 76 74 100 97 116 164 209 240 317 353 316 293 339 347 340 229
IPO 156 181 220 166 202 270 136 77 260 264 41 24 29 93 56 57 55
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '069m07
3131
Private Equity Returns As of 6/30/07Private Equity Returns As of 6/30/07
Source: Thomson Financial/National Venture Capital Association
9%7%6%4%NASDAQ
8%7%4%10%S&P 500
14%11%9%21%All PE
13%9%11%22%Buyouts
16%21%3%18%> All VC
14%10%5%24%Later VC
14%18%6%25%Balanced VC
21%40%-1%8%Early VC
20 yr10 yr5 yr1yrFund Type