2008 Economic Update

Information provided by Jacksonville State University

Center for Economic Development and College of Commerce and Business Administration

2008 Economic Update

2

Opening the Door to the Future

• Calhoun County Update

• State of Alabama Update

Overview

Calhoun County 2007 Update

3

• Member Survey• Employment• Unemployment• County Gross Domestic

Product• Housing

4

This year better 40%

About same49%

This year worse11%

Q#1: Your Comparison of this Year to Last

Year 2008

5

56%

70%64% 67%

58%

40%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

% "

Th

is Y

ear

Bet

ter"

Q#1: Your Comparison of this Year to Last 2003-2008

6

Expand # emp31%

Remain same65%

Cutback # emp4%

Q#2: Your Employment Outlook for Coming Year

Year 2008

7

43%

31%28%34%

44%

37%

0%

17%

34%

52%

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

% "

Exp

and

# E

mp

"Q#2: Your Employment Outlook

for Coming Year 2003-2008

8

Remain same75

Very likely58%

May or may not

35%

Very unlikely

7%

Q#3: How Likely to Increase Employee Compensation in

Coming Year

Year 2008

9

54% 58%48% 47%

68%

53%

0%

25%

50%

75%

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

% "

Ver

y L

ikel

y" Q#3: How Likely to Increase Emp

Compensation in Coming Year 2003-2008

10

Population Trends Calhoun County 1999-2006

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

116.5

111.3 111.2 111.4112.1 112.4 112.1

112.9

108.0

110.0

112.0

114.0

116.0

118.0

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06

In 1

,000

11

Labor Force Calhoun County 1999-2007

54.053.2

52.051.6

53.554.3 54.2 54.2

54.6

50.0

52.0

54.0

56.0

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07

In 1

,000

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics *Jan-Nov 2007

12

Employment for Calhoun County 1999-2007

51.250.5

49.2 48.7

50.651.2 51.7 52.2 52.7

46.0

48.5

51.0

53.5

56.0

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07

In 1

,000


13

Unemployment Rate for Calhoun County 1999-2007

5.1%5.1%5.5%

5.7%5.4%

5.1%

4.5%

3.6%3.5%

3%

4%

5%

6%

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07

% U

nem

ploy

ed


14

Unemployment for Calhoun County vs Alabama 2007

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

3.7%

3.1%

3.6%

4.1%4.1%4.0%

3.1%

2.8%

3.5%3.7%

3.3%

3.5%

3.1%

3.7%3.8%3.7%

3.5%

3.5%3.3%3.4%

3.3%3.3%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov

% U

nem

ploy

ed

CalhounAlabama

15

Alabama Unemployment Rates

November 2006

State Ave – 3.6% Unemployment Rate 3.1% and Below 3.2% - 3.8% 3.9% and Above

Source: AL Dept of Industrial Relations

3.4%

16

Unemployment Rate

3.3% and Below3.4% - 4.4%4.5% and Above

Source: AL Dept of Industrial Relations

3.7%

Alabama Unemployment Rates

November 2007

State Ave – 3.5%

17

Calhoun County Gross Domestic Product

2001-2005 in $ Billions

$2.867

$2.665

$2.542

$2.422

$2.950

$2.30

$2.50

$2.70

$2.90

$3.10

01 02 03 04 05

GD

P in

$ B

illi

ons

Source: U. S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

18

Calhoun County Gross Domestic Product % Change

2002-2005


2.1%

7.6%4.8%5.0%

1.5%

3.7%

5.9%

8.1%

02 03 04 05

GS

P c

ha

ng

e in

%

19

Calhoun Housing Statistics Nov 2006 – Nov 2007

YTD Nov 2006 YTD Nov 2007 % Change

Total Homes Sold

1,274 1,194 -6.3%

Total Homes Listed

9,549 11,570 +21.1%

Avg Selling Price

$132,592 $135,598 +2.2%

Avg Days on Market

133 147 +10%

Source: Alabama Real Estate Research & Education Center

20

69.477.6 80.2 79.7 81.9

93.7

103.5

122.2113.8

108.5

60.0

75.0

90.0

105.0

120.0

135.0

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07

Hom

e Sa

les/

Mon

thNumber of Home Sales Per

Month Calhoun County 1998-2007

Source: Alabama Center for Real Estate *Jan-Nov 2007

92.5 Avg - - -

21

133

148

156154

149 149 149

138134

147

130

135

140

145

150

155

160

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07

Ave

Day

s on

Mar

ket

Ave # of Days Homes on Market Calhoun County

1998-2007


146 Avg - - -

22

Anniston Chemical Agent Disposal Facility

Since 1st burn on August 9, 2003, have destroyed

• 42,738 GB-filled rockets/warheads (0 remain)

• 16,026 GB-filled 8-inch Projectiles (0 remain)

• 9,060 GB-filled 155 Projectiles (0 remain)

• 98% storage risk eliminated (M55 Rockets)

• 38% stockpile destroyed

Source: Anniston Chemical Agent Disposal Facility

23

Calhoun County: Summing it Up

• Membership Survey-Guarded

• Population- Up

• Employment- Up

• Unemployment- Down YTD Nov 07– Nov 06 vs Nov 07 up slightly– New record low in April 2007 (2.8%)

• Housing Market- Down– Down from record highs

24

State of Alabama Update

• BLCI Survey

• Demographics

• Economic Indicators

• Education• Achievemens

2003• Other Issues

24

25

Alabama Business Leaders Confidence Index

• State Survey – 4th Quarter 2007

• Approximately 350 respondents

• www.blcindex.com

http://www.blcindex.com/

http://www.compassbank.com/

26

Alabama Economic Outlook

Q4 2006 compared to Q3 2006

0.0%

12.3%

42.1% 41.8%

3.8%

0%

20%

40%

60%

StrongDecrease

ModerateDecrease

No Change ModerateIncrease

StrongIncrease

% o

f R

espo

nden

ts

Source: Alabama Business Leaders Confidence Index

Last Year

27

Alabama Economic Outlook

Q4 2007 compared to Q3 2007

0.6%

18.2%

41.4%37.2%

2.6%0%

20%

40%

60%

StrongDecrease

ModerateDecrease

NoChange

ModerateIncrease

StrongIncrease

% o

f R

espo

nden

ts


This Year

28

54.2% 53.6%

56.0%56.8%

50.7%

45.0%

50.0%

55.0%

60.0%

Q4 06 Q1 07 Q2 07 Q3 07 Q4 07

% "

Nex

t Q

uart

er B

ette

r"Alabama Economic Outlook

Q4 2006 – Q4 2007


29

Alabama Population 2000-2007 in Millions

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

4.332 4.349 4.370 4.3854.414

4.5574.599

4.628

4.3

4.4

4.5

4.6

4.7

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07

in 1

,000

,000

30

Alabama High Inbound State January – December 2007

Source: United Van Lines Migration Study

High Inbound

High Outbound

Balanced

31

Alabama Civilian Labor Force2001-2007 in Millions

2.15

2.22 2.23

2.162.15

2.09

2.13

2.00

2.05

2.10

2.15

2.20

2.25

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

In M

illi

ons

Source: Alabama Dept of Industrial Relations *Jan-Nov 2007

32

Alabama Employment2001-2007 in Millions

2.06

2.14 2.15

2.042.021.97

2.02

1.84

1.92

2.00

2.08

2.16

2.24

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

In M

illi

ons

Source: Alabama Dept of Industrial Relations *Jan-Nov 2007

33

Alabama Unemployment 2001-2007

Source: U.S. Department of Labor

3.5% 3.5%3.6%

4.7%

5.9% 5.8% 5.7%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

5.9%

6.9%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

% U

nem

plo

yed

*Jan-Nov 2007

34

Alabama Gross State Product1998-2006 in $Billions

$116$115$114$111

$118$122

$128$132

$137

$100

$110

$120

$130

$140

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06

GSP

in $

Bil

lion

s


35

Alabama Gross State Product

% Change 1998-2006


0.9%

0.9%

2.7%2.8%

1.7%

3.4%

4.9%

3.1%3.8%

0.5%

1.5%

2.5%

3.5%

4.5%

5.5%

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06

GSP

cha

nge

in %

36

Total Tax Revenue Alabama % Change FY 01-02 thur FY 06-07

10.9%

8.2%

0.9%

3.2%

9.8%

4.2%

0.0%

3.0%

6.0%

9.0%

12.0%

01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07

Tax

Rev

cha

nge

in %

*FY: Oct-SeptSource: Alabama Department of Revenue

37

Income Tax Revenue Alabama % Change FY 01-02 thur FY 06-07

11.4%

8.0%

2.4%

0.8%

9.0% 9.1%

0.0%

3.0%

6.0%

9.0%

12.0%

01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07

Inco

me

Tax

Rev

cha

nge

in %


38

Sales Tax Revenue Alabama % Change FY 01-02 thur FY 06-07

6.1%

8.1%

1.7%

4.2%

9.0%

2.5%

1.0%

3.3%

5.5%

7.8%

10.0%

01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07

Sale

s T

ax R

ev c

hang

e in

%


39

Tax Revenue Alabama % Change Dec 2006 Vs Dec 2007

Source: Alabama Department of Revenue

15.07%

5.96%

15.07%

3.0%

6.5%

10.0%

13.5%

17.0%

Income Tax -Individual

Sales Tax Total Tax

% U

nem

plo

yed

40

Alabama Housing Statistics

Nov 2006 – Nov 2007YTD Nov 2006 YTD Nov 2007 % Change

Total Homes Sold

55,306 52,875 -4.4%Avg Selling

Price$156,535 $157,818 +.82%

Avg Days on Market

123 123 0%Total Homes

Listed366,005 451,852 +23%

Source: Alabama Real Estate Research & Education Center

41

2,750 2,792

3,960

4,5394,807

4,9714,994

2,9852,9222,875

2600

3250

3900

4550

5200

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07

Hom

e S

ales

/Mon

thNumber Home Sales Per Month

Alabama 1998-2007


3,760 Avg - - -

42

136

145 143

153156

151

141

130

122 123

120

130

140

150

160

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07

Ave

Day

s on

Mar

ket

Ave # of Days Homes on Market Alabama 1998-2007


140 Avg - - -

43

• Outlook Survey- Guarded

• State Population- Up

• Labor Force- Flat

• Employment- Flat

• Unemployment- Flat

• Alabama Gross State Product – Up

• State Tax Revenues – Up, decreasing rate

• Housing Sales– Down from record

highs

State of Alabama: Summing it Up

2008 Economic Update

Documents

Transcript of 2008 Economic Update