2008 - Building Software: An Artful Science [ppt]

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Transcript of 2008 - Building Software: An Artful Science [ppt]

  • 1.
    • Michael Hogarth, MD
    Building Software: An Artful Science
  • 2. Software development is risky
    • IBMs Consulting Group survey :
      • 55% of the software developed cost more that projected
      • 68% took longer to complete than predicted.
      • 88% had to be substantially redesigned.
    • Standish Group Study of 8,380 software projects (1996):
      • 31% of software projects were canceled before they were completed
      • 53% of those are completed cost an average of 189% of their original estimates.
      • 42% of completed projects - have their original set of proposed features and functions.
      • 9% - completed on time and on budget.
    To err is human, to really foul things up requires a computer
  • 3. Standish Group report 2006
    • 19% of projects were outright failures
    • 35% could be categorized as successes (better than 1996, but not great)
    • 46% of projects were challenged (either had cost overruns or delays, or both)
  • 4. McDonalds gets McFried
    • McDonalds Innovate Project
      • $500 million spent for nothing....
      • Objective --
        • McDonald's planned to spend $1 billion over five years to tie all its operations in to a real-time digital network. Eventually, executives in company headquarters would have been able to see how soda dispensers and frying machines in every store were perfect.
        • Why was it scrubbed?
          • information systems don't scrub toilets and they don't fry potatoes
    Barrett, 2003. http://www.baselinemag.com/c/a/Projects-Supply-Chain/McDonalds-McBusted/
  • 5. FBIs Virtual Case File
    • 2003 - Virtual Case File - networked system for tracking criminal cases
    • SAIC spent months writing over 730,000 lines of computer code
    • Found to have hundreds of software problems during testing
    • $170 million dollar project was cancelled -- SAIC reaped more than $100 million
    • Problems
      • delayed by over a year. In 2004, the system was 1/10th of the functionality intended and thus largely unusable after $170 spent
      • SAIC delivered what FBI requested, the requesting was flawed, poorly planned, not tied to scheduled deliverables
    • Now what?
      • Lockheed Martin given contract for $305 million tied to benchmarks
    http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/08/17/AR2006081701485_pf.html
  • 6. Causes of the VCF Failure
    • Changing requirements (conceived before 9/11, after 9/11 requirements were altered significantly)
    • 14 different managers over the project lifetime (2 years)
    • Poor oversight by the primary owner of the project (FBI) - did not oversee construction closely
    • Did not pay attention to new, better commercial products -- kept head in the sand because it had to be built fast
    • Hardware was purchased first, waiting on software (common problem) -- if software is delayed, hardware is legacy quickly
    http://www.inf.ed.ac.uk/teaching/courses/seoc2/2004_2005/slides/failures.pdf
  • 7. Washington State Licensing Dept
    • 1990 - Washington State License Application Mitigation Project
    • $41.8 million over 5 years to automate the States vehicle registration and license renewal process
    • 1993 - after $51 million, the original design and requirements were expected to be obsolete when finally built
    • 1997 - Washington legislature pulled the plug -- $40 million wasted
    • Causes
      • ambitious
      • lack of early deliverables
      • development split between in-house and contractor
  • 8. J Sainsbury IT failure
    • UK food retailer, J. Sainsbury, invested in an automated supply-chain management system
    • System did not perform the functions as needed
    • As a result, merchandise was stuck in company warehouses and not getting to the stores
    • Company added 3,000 additional clerks to stock the shelves manually
    • They killed the project after spending $526 million.....
    to err is human, to really foul up requires a root password. anonymous
  • 9. Other IT nightmares
    • 1999 - $125 million NASA Mars Climate Orbiter lost in space due to a data conversion error...
    • Feb 2003 - U.S. Treasury Dept. mailed 50,000 Social Security checks without beneficiary names. Checks had to be cancelled and reissued...
    • 2004-2005 - UK Inland Revenue (IRS) software errors contribute to a $3.45billion tax-credit overpayment
    • May 2005 - Toyota had to install a software fix on 20,000 hybrid Prius vehicles due to problems with invalid engine warning lights. It is estimated that the automobile industry spends $2-$3billion/year fixing software problems
    • Sept 2006 - A U.S. Government student loan service software error made public the personal data of 21,000 borrowers on its web site
    • 2008 - new Terminal 5 at Heathrow Airport -New automated baggage routing system leads to over 20,000 bags being put in temporary storage...
  • 10. does it really matter?
  • 11. Software bugs can kill... http://www.wired.com/software/coolapps/news/2005/11/69355
  • 12. When users inadvertently cause disaster http://www.wired.com/software/coolapps/news/2005/11/69355?currentPage=2
  • 13. How does this happen?
    • Many of the runaway projects are overly ambitious -- a major issue (senior management has unrealistic expectations of what can be done)
    • Most projects failed because of multiple problems/issues, not one.
    • Most problems/issues were management related.
    • In spite of obvious signs of the runaway software project (72% of project members are aware), only 19% of senior management is aware
    • Risk management, an important part of identifying trouble and managing it, was NOT done in any fashion in 55% of major runaway projects.
  • 14. Causes of failure
    • Project objectives not fully specified -- 51%
    • Bad planning and estimating -- 48%
    • Technology is new to the organization -- 45%
    • Inadequate/no project management methods -- 42%
    • Insufficient senior staff on the team -- 42%
    • Poor performance by suppliers of software/hardware (contractors) -- 42%
    http://members.cox.net/johnsuzuki/softfail.htm
  • 15. The cost of IT failures
    • 2006 - $1 Trillion dollars spent on IT hardware, software, and services worldwide...
    • 18% of all IT projects will be abandoned before delivery (18% of $1 trillion = $180 billion?)
    • 53% will be delivered late or have cost overruns
    • 1995 - Standish estimated the U.S. spent $81 billion for cancelled software projects.....
  • 16. Conclusions
    • IT projects are more likely to be unsuccessful than successful
    • Only 1 in 5 software projects bring full satisfaction (succeed)
    • The larger the project, the more likely the failure
    http://www.it-cortex.com/Stat_Failure_Rate.htm# The%20Robbins-Gioia%20Survey%20(2001)
  • 17. Software as engineering
    • Software has been viewed more as art than engineering
      • has lead to lack of structured methods and organization for building software systems
    • Why is a software development methodology important?
      • programmers are expensive
      • many software system failures can be traced to poor software development
        • requirements gathering is incomplete or not well organized
        • requirements are not communicated effectively to the software programmers