2007 International Sweetener Colloquium Bill Hejl, President World Association of Beet and Cane...
-
Upload
timothy-geoffrey-hill -
Category
Documents
-
view
213 -
download
1
Transcript of 2007 International Sweetener Colloquium Bill Hejl, President World Association of Beet and Cane...
2007 International Sweetener Colloquium2007 International Sweetener Colloquium
Bill Hejl, President World Association of
Beet and Cane Growers
WABCG
World Association of Beet and Cane GrowersWorld Association of Beet and Cane Growers
5.6 Million FarmersWho associate to promote beet
and cane production
Who is the WABCG?
WABCG
31 Countries:Beet:Austria ItalyBelgium JapanCanada NetherlandsDenmark SpainFinland SwedenFrance TurkeyGermany United Kingdom
United States
Cane:Australia South AfricaBrazil Sudan**Fiji SwazilandIndia Tanzania Jamaica UgandaKenya ZambiaMalawi Mauritius Mexico Pakistan
World Association of Beet and Cane GrowersWorld Association of Beet and Cane Growers
WABCG
2007 International Sweetener Colloquium2007 International Sweetener Colloquium
Sugar is a Byproduct
WABCG
2007 International Sweetener Colloquium2007 International Sweetener Colloquium
50 MillionBeet and Cane
GrowersProduce Energy
WABCG
2007 International Sweetener Colloquium2007 International Sweetener Colloquium
Beet and Cane Growers:
• Production increases
• Increasing demand: Food & Fuel
• Higher fuel prices drive demand for more sugar
WABCG
2007 International Sweetener Colloquium2007 International Sweetener Colloquium
Balancing Food and EnergyResult:
• Higher prices
• Government action
WABCG
2007 International Sweetener Colloquium2007 International Sweetener Colloquium
Balancing Food and EnergyWill conversion to Bio-Fuels be:• Efficient?• Stable?• Sustainable?It must be:• High prices have driven investment• Better than trade deals
WABCG
2007 International Sweetener Colloquium
Balancing Food and Energy
What will the conversion of more sugar to energy
do to sugar-as-food markets?
WABCG
KWS• Increase sugar per hectare
from 10 Metric Ton to 15- Breeding- Winter sown beets
2006 WABCG Meetings2006 WABCG Meetings
WABCG
EU Reform• Close 33-50 factories in 2007 alone
• 21 million ton down to 12 by 2013
2006 WABCG Meetings2006 WABCG Meetings
WABCG
8.0358.035
8.027 – 8.035 Minutes
WABCG
“Bio-Fuel Cane”• Japan• 300% more bagasse• Now Bio-Fuel corn
2006 WABCG Meetings2006 WABCG Meetings
WABCG
Some Facts About IndiaGeographical area (million hectares) 328.73
Land utilization (million hectares) 306.06
Population (millions) 1055
Rural population (% of total) 72.2%
Work force (millions) 402.5
Per capita land (hectares) 0.33
World Sugar Balance (Million tons, raw value)
2005/06 Surplus: 2.7 Million Tons
2006/07 Surplus: 6.1 Million Tons
?
World Prices
???
Sugar Consumption Growth Sugar Consumption Growth in Major Consumersin Major Consumers
0
5
10
15
20
25
Ind
ia
EU
-25
Bra
zil
Ch
ina
US
A
Ru
ssia
Me
xico
Ind
on
esi
a
Pa
kist
an
Eg
yptM
ln t
on
nes
, raw
val
ue
Increase in sugar consumption between 1984 and 2005
Sugar consumption in 1984
Future Sugar Consumption(million tons)
13 Demand Growth 2005 – 2009
28 Demand Growth 2005 – 2013
Brazil’s Sugar and Ethanol
Sugar Production Up 9 Million Tons
Sugar Exports Up 10 Million Tons
Ethanol Production Up 11 Billion Liters
Ethanol Exports Up 3 Billion Liters
World Sugar and Fuel EthanolThe Global Fuel Ethanol Market
900 Million Gallons or 1.5 Days of Global Gasoline
Consumption
• What happens if (or when) crude oil prices fall?
• What happens if (or when) crude oil prices rise further?
World Sugar and Fuel Ethanol
Will Ethanol Destabilize World Sugar Markets?
U.S. Ethanol ImportsU.S. Ethanol Imports• Perfect storm of high oil prices & MTBE transition
is boosting U.S. imports of ethanol in 2006.
Year Total U.S. Ethanol Imports2002 46 million gallons2003 61 million gallons2004 161 million gallons2005 115 million gallons
2006 523 million gallons YTD
• Perfect storm of high oil prices & MTBE transition is boosting U.S. imports of ethanol in 2006.
Year Total U.S. Ethanol Imports2002 46 million gallons2003 61 million gallons2004 161 million gallons2005 115 million gallons
2006 523 million gallons YTD
That’s 3,322,000 metric tons of sugarThat’s 3,322,000 metric tons of sugar
U.S. Ethanol Imports 2006*U.S. Ethanol Imports 2006*• Year to date = 523 million gallons of ethanol (nearly 2 billion liters).
• Brazil accounts for 65% of imports or 343 million gallons (1.3 billion liters) YTD.
• CBI nations = 106 million gallons (401 million liters) YTD, mostly from Jamaica.
• DR-CAFTA nations (El Salvador) = 14 million gallons (55 million liters).
• Year to date = 523 million gallons of ethanol (nearly 2 billion liters).
• Brazil accounts for 65% of imports or 343 million gallons (1.3 billion liters) YTD.
• CBI nations = 106 million gallons (401 million liters) YTD, mostly from Jamaica.
• DR-CAFTA nations (El Salvador) = 14 million gallons (55 million liters).
*As of Nov. 1, 2006, from the U.S. International Trade Commission*As of Nov. 1, 2006, from the U.S. International Trade Commission
We’ve bought 42% Of Brazil’s
exports
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125
Bil
lio
n B
arr
els
pe
r Y
ea
r
History
Mean
USGS Estimates of Ultimate Recovery Ultimate Recovery Probability BBls-------------------- ---------Low (95 %) 2,248Mean (expected value) 3,003High (5 %) 3,896
Note: U.S. volumes were added to the USGS foreign volumes to obtain world totals.
7.8% Growth1963-1973
2% Growth& Decline
High Prices CanAffect Demand4.1% Decline
1979-1983
2016
Annual Production with 2 Percent Annual Growth & Decline
Remember 1,188BBls?
Tar sands and coal gasOnly add 3BBls/year
4.5% in 2005
13
14
55 60
More Sugar to Ethanol
Less Sugar for Food Use
Sucrose EthanolSucrose Ethanol
Corn Ethanol
Corn Ethanol
Cellulosic Ethanol
Cellulosic Ethanol
SugarSugar
EnergyEnergy FoodFood
WABCG
2007 International Sweetener Colloquium2007 International Sweetener Colloquium
Beet and Cane Growers:
• Production increases
• Increasing demand: Food & Fuel
• Higher fuel prices drive demand for more sugar
WABCG
2007 WABCG Meetings2007 WABCG Meetings
July 1-14, 2007 Brisbane, Australia