2006 Preliminary Results Presentation 22nd March 2007

60
2006 Preliminary Results Presentation 22 nd March 2007

Transcript of 2006 Preliminary Results Presentation 22nd March 2007

Page 1: 2006 Preliminary Results Presentation 22nd March 2007

2006 Preliminary Results Presentation 22nd March 2007

Page 2: 2006 Preliminary Results Presentation 22nd March 2007

Page 2 | 22nd March 2007

Forward looking statements

This presentation may contain forward-looking statements and information that both represents management's current expectations or beliefs concerning future events and are subject to known and unknown risks and uncertainties.

A number of factors could cause actual results, performance or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied by

these forward-looking statements.

Page 3: 2006 Preliminary Results Presentation 22nd March 2007

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Agenda

Results Highlights Simon Lockett

Financial Results Tony Durrant

Regional Update Robin Allan & Neil Hawkings

Look Ahead Simon Lockett

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Results Highlights

Page 5: 2006 Preliminary Results Presentation 22nd March 2007

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Highlights

• Dua and Blackbird in Vietnam; Lembu Peteng, Macan Tutul and Lukah in Indonesia

• Current drilling in India & Guinea Bissau

• Operated drilling successes in Indonesia & Vietnam

• Signed MOU for gas sales in North Sumatra

• Significant progress on West Natuna gas• Resolution of partner issues on Ratna• Initiated sale process for Mauritania

• 25% increase in reserves and resources

• Tangible progress towards our medium term target of 50,000 boepd

• Further definition on development projects across all regions

• 3 acquisitions adding low cost barrels

• 270 bcf net certified gas in North Sumatra Block A

• Adding 5,000 bopd UK Scott production• New opportunities with Middle East JV

• Real progress in commercial discussions

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Financial highlights

• Profit after tax

• Operating cashflow

• Operating costs

• Balance sheet

Up 75% to $67.6 million (2005 - $38.6 million)

Up 102% to $244.8 million (2005 - $121.2 million)

Net cash of $40.9 million (2005 – net debt of $26.2 million)

Stable at $6.0 per barrel (2005 - $5.9 per barrel)

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Production and income statement

Working Interest Production (mboepd)Entitlement Interest Production (mboepd)Realised oil price ($/bbl)Realised gas price ($/mcf)

Sales and other operating revenuesCost of salesExploration/New BusinessGeneral and administration costsOperating profit Financial ItemsProfit before taxationTaxationProfit after taxLoss for the period from assets held for saleProfit for the period

Prepared in accordance with IFRS

12 months to31 Dec 2005

33.328.7

48.383.82

$m359

(176)(38)(20)126(1)

125(86)

39-

39

Highlights12 months to31 Dec 2006

33.028.9

64.905.11

$m359

(127)(37)(17)179(6)

173(87)

86(18)

68

Chinguetti revenues excluded

Favourable resolution of prior provisionsMauritania defined as asset for sale

Underlying field operating costs stable at $6.0/bbl

Close to Brent average of $65.40/bblStrong Singapore gas prices

• Maintained policy of hedging after tax barrels with average floor around $40

• Net movement in mark to market valuation over the year of $1.9 million

100.00

Dated Brent Oil($/bbl)

80.00

60.00

20.0003 04 08 10 12

40.00

05 06 07 09 11

Commodity Priceand Forward CurveAverage CapAverage Floor

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Cashflow

Net cash flow from operationsNet interest TaxationOperating cash flowCapital expenditurePre licence exploration costsNet share issues/(purchases)Other movementsMovement in net cash

Opening net cash/(debt)Closing net cash/(debt)

12 months to31 Dec 2005

$m

12 months to31 Dec 2006

$m

361-

(116)245

(154)(22)

1(3)67

(26)41

208-

(87)121

(133)(17)(20)

4(45)

19(26)

2006 2005

Development

Exploration 51

82Acquisitions -17

154

90

47

133

Undrawn facility of $275 million

Operating Cashflow Capex

Pakistan

North Sea 43

26West Africa 2522

245

45

91

154

Asia 6087

Estimated regional split

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Financial outlook

• Production expected to be 36,000-40,000 boepd for 2007

• Exploration spend will increase in 2007– Current estimate around $100m– After-tax cost will be around $70m

• Planned development spending currently estimated at $110 million

120

Exploration cash expenditure before and after taxUS Dollars (millions)

100

80

60

20

02004 2006

Gross expenditureExpenditure after tax and recoveries

2005 2007

40

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North Sea Strategy• Deliver material reserve additions through organic growth in Norway

• Maximise returns from current UK production assets with a focus on incremental projects

• Pursue acquisitions of additional equity in core areas

North Sea – returning to growth

25000

North Sea Production Profile(boepd)

20000

15000

10000

5000

02004 2006 2008 2009 2011

2004 Interim Results Forecast2004-6 Actuals and Current Forecast

2005 2007 2010

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Scott acquisition

• Pre-emption notice issued on Hess’ sale of part of Scott interest

• Premier share to increase from 1.79% to 21.83%• Additional 12.7 mmboe net to Premier for $60m• Increased 2007 production of 5,000 boepd

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• Premier 50% share(operator Pertra)

• Brent equivalent field abandoned by Total in 2001, awarded to Premier in 2005

• Operator’s reserves estimate is 62 mmbbl (35 to 70 mmbbls)

• Two development concepts being carried forward

– Jack-up drilling and production unit (leased)

– Subsea tie-back to Jotun• Final concept selection decision

planned for September • POD submission targeting

year end

Frøy

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Bream

Bream

• “Most sought after” blocks in the APA 2006 round• Undeveloped Brent equivalent oil field discovered in

1971, awarded to Premier in 2007• Awarded 40% and Operatorship of Bream Exploration

– 1 Firm well • Awarded 20% of Bream Appraisal (BG Operator)

– 1 Firm and 1 contingent well– POD submission in 2 years

• Could be developed as a tieback to the Yme field– POD was submitted in January 2007

PL407 Bream Appraisal

PL406 Bream Exploration

Yme Field Re-development

Bream

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2006 APA Round Awards

• Five blocks awarded

• First Operatorship for Premier Norway

• Bream discovery to be appraised

UKCS 24th Round Awards

• 1524a & 15/25f

2005 APA Round Awards

• 4 non-operated exploration licences awarded

• Working-up prospects for drilling

• Rig consortia discussions

North Sea exploration update

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PL359 – Merckx lead

• Paleocene sandstones laponto the edge of the Utsira High.

• Oil shows in down-dip16/4-1 well

• Risk analysis is being undertaken before deciding whether to commit to a well.

North Sea exploration update

Paleocene sandstone pinchout

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UK exploration - Peveril

Blocks 39/2, 39/7• Premier share 30%• Premier carried for well • 40mmbbl prospect in Fife (Upper Jurassic)

sandstones• Close to Fife infrastructure• Drilling April 2007

Peveril Prospect

Fife Field

Fergus Field

Outline ofPeveril

Prospect

Sealing Fault-locallydeveloped sands not

charged on eastern side

4 Way Dip closureat Base Cretaceous

Subcrop/Erosion/Pinchoutof Fife Sandstones defined

by subcrop of sealingTriassic Smith Bank

Formation shales against Lower Cretaceous shales

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Middle East & Pakistan Strategy• Grow high return Pakistan business through development and acquisition

• Replenish Pakistan exploration portfolio, focusing on High Impact acreage

• Develop relationships to access new opportunities – (EIIC Joint Venture)

Middle East & PakistanEnhancing the Pakistan gas business

20000

Pakistan Production Graph(boepd)

18000

16000

14000

12000

100002007 2008 2009 2010 2011

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Pakistan - Qadirpur Deep

Qadirpur• Discovered gas in a Lower

Cretaceous structure at ~4500m, with potential stratigraphic upside.

• The well has been suspended for testing later in 2007

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Qadirpur (4.75%)• Further plant expansion proceeding• Qadirpur Deep drilled awaiting testing

Zamzama (9.37%)• Phase 2 project progressing to plan• Additional 150 mmscfd - first gas in 2H

2007 • Potential Upside Reserves identified

Bhit/Badhra (6.0%)• GSA signed for additional sales• Additional gas targeted December 2007• Enlarging Badhra licence areaKadanwari (15.79%)• Development drilling proceeding

Pakistan – field updates

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Pakistan – Anne-1

Anne-1 EW• Targeting 300 mmbbl in Oligocene-Miocene sandstones

• Deep water: 1300m• Drilling June/July 2007

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West Africa Strategy• High Impact Exploration-led growth• Maximise value from existing discoveries• Generate a portfolio of new exploration

opportunities

West Africa – high impact exploration

Congo

Congo

Guinea Bissau

Guinea Bissau

Country

April 2007190Eirozes

285

260

70

Gross Unrisked Mean Potential (mmboe)

2008/9

2008

Drilling

Anticipated Spud

Frida

Ida

Espinafre

Prospect

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Mauritania update

• New well (Chinguetti-18) is now flowing

• Chinguetti-14 has been worked over• Plans progressing for Phase 2B

production wells in Q4 this year

• Tiof continues to make progress• High resolution seismic acquisition

in Q2

• Operator has started work on Banda gas commercialisation

• At 8.12% equity, unlikely to generate high impact exploration opportunities going forward

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Guinea Bissau

Esperanca (Block 4A and 5A) – 30.5% • Targeting cretaceous sandstones• Espinafre-1 currently drilling (70 MMBO)• Eirozes-1 to follow:190 MMBO mean, 360

MMBO upside• Block farmed-out to Delek Feb ’07 (subject to

Government ratification)

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North

Eirozes Prospect:mean reserves 190 million barrels

TopAlbianSand

Salt

South

Guinea Bissau high impact wells

Espinafre Prospect:mean reserves 70 million barrels

North

Salt

South

TopAlbianSand

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Marine IX Block (Premier 58.5%)• Significant reserve potential • 3D reprocessing and interpretation in

2007• Two large prospects – Frida and Ida• Exploration well 2008/9

Congo – Block Marine IX

Kitina150 mmbbls

Moho110 mmbbls

N’Kossa280 mmbbls

Frida Prospect

Ida Prospect

Frida Miocene Channel

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Frida Prospect 150 mmbo Kitina Field (Total)

Congo – Block Marine IX – Frida prospect

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Congo – Block Marine IX – Frida and Ida prospects

Frida Structure

Ida Structure

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Asia Strategy• Fully exploit the West Natuna potential

• Build a new core area in North Sumatra

• Develop the Nam Con Son Basin

• Access further high impact exploration

• Build on selected E&P projects in India

Asia – Building on our Natuna Sea position

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Asia success

Vietnam Block 12 37.5% - Duaand Blackbird discoveries

Tuna licence award - 65%

Vietnam Block 7&8/97 – optionexercised for 45% interest

Kakap 18.75% - Lukah discovery

Natuna SeaBlock A 28.67% - Macan Tutul-1,

Lembu Peteng-1, discoveries

North SumatraBlock A – acquisition

of 41.67% interest

Significant progress onWest Natuna gas sales

Buton licenceaward - 30%

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India – Ratna

• All partners are now in agreement and ready to sign the PSC and the associated documentation

• Being progressed through the ministries concerned• Premier’s reserves estimate is around 80 mmstb but

further upside exists• Premier is Operator with a 10% carried interest

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India – Cachar Block

Cachar, 14.5% (Operator)• Masimpur-3 (2 Tcf), spudded 21 Jan 2007• Hailakandi-1 & Kanchanpur-1 follow-up

wells, each with high potential

Hailakandi Prospect

Kanchanpur Prospect

MasimpurProspect

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Masimpur-3 drilling curve

Seismic line POC-03-12

Masimpur Anticline

• The Masimpur structure has defeated previous attempts to drill the Renjiformation target

• The rig is located off the crest, and the well is being drilled directionally to avoid high pressures seen in earlier wells

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North Sumatra Block A

• Acquired 41.67% in two acquisitions from ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips at a cost of $53m

• Medco have now assumed Operatorship

• Initial focus will be the development of the Alur Siwahgas field

• Followed by exploration activities and re-development studies on old oil fields

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Alur Siwah Development

• Initial gas development of three fields to an already built local fertiliser plant.

– D& M 2P certified gas reserves– Alur Siwah – 556 bcf– Alur Rambong – 76 bcf– Julu Rayeu – 34 bcf

• Outline Development– 120 mmscf/d offtake rate (including

20% CO2)– New gas processing facility– First production in 2010

• Gas sales MOU recently signed

Alur Siwah – 9 Well

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• Gas from Alur Siwah to be sold to fertiliser plants

• The Bata Raya Field could be developed either into the Arun LNG Plant or the Fertiliser plant

• Further gas to be discovered through exploration and quickly developed

• The old oil fields to be redeveloped with horizontal drilling technology

• The giant Kuala Langsa Field Gas to be developed and gas sold to the Arun LNG plant

• The reject CO2 stream could be used for EOR in the old oil fields

North Sumatra Block A – long term vision

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West Natuna Block A – Gas Sales Update

• Gas sales planned under two contracts

– Singapore petrochemical complex• ExxonMobil and other end users• HSFO indexed price

– Domestic power generation• Sale to PLN for Batam• Domestic pricing

• First gas in 2010 – Possibility of some supplies in

2009

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West Natuna – long term vision

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West Natuna drilling programme – 2007

Lembu Peteng-2 (Appraisal)

Ibu Lembu

Pancing

Kakak Lembu

Gajah Sumatera

2 development wells

Tenggiling

Tupai

Contingent Wells

Firm Wells

Page 39: 2006 Preliminary Results Presentation 22nd March 2007

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Ibu Lembu-1

Lembu Trend• A new oil and gas trend within tie-

back distance to existing infrastructure

Lembu Peteng-1

Lembu Peteng discovery

West Natuna – Lembu trend

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Gajah Puteri-2

Gajah Sumatera-1

plus ST

Gajah Puteri-1

West Natuna - Gajah Sumatera Prospect

Gajah Sumatera

Gajah Sumatera• Potential extension to the Gajah

Puteri Field

Page 41: 2006 Preliminary Results Presentation 22nd March 2007

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Buton 30%• Awarded 28 February 2007• Operator Japex• 2007 WP:

– Environmental Impact Assessment– Geological Field Survey– 265km 2D seismic (late ‘07)– Exploration well 2009

Buton Block

Indonesia licence award – Buton (Sulawesi)

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Large anticlines are seen at surface; there are likely to be structural traps at depth

U D

Oil seeps

Buton: Lead C Satellite Interpretation

Lead C Anticline

Tp-Q

Tp-Q

Sampolakosa-1S

Page 43: 2006 Preliminary Results Presentation 22nd March 2007

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Natuna Sea – Tuna Block

Seismic Line showing Direct Hydrocarbon Indicators

Tuna Block Leads

Tuna 65%, Operator• Awarded 2 March 2007 (3 yrs)• Adjacent to Vietnam Block 7 & 8/97 • On trend with Dua and Blackbird

discoveries• Potential 40-100 MMBO prospects

Page 44: 2006 Preliminary Results Presentation 22nd March 2007

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Vietnam Block 12 – discoveries and prospects

BlackbirdSuccessful exploration, 3D April 2007

FalconFollow-up to Blackbird

Dua FieldSuccessfully appraised

JayNear field exploration to Dua

QuitBig structure

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Vietnam Block 12 - Discoveries and Prospects

10 km

Falcon Blackbird

Quit

Dua

Peacock

Base Tertiary Depth Map

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Dua / Blackbird update

• Reservoir and Facilities Development studies are underway • 3D seismic on Blackbird in 2Q 2007 to reduce volumetric uncertainty• Concept selection scheduled for Q3 - Project sanction in Q2 2008• Likely to be an FPSO• Two wellhead platforms• Jack-up drilling rig• First production in 2010• 80 mmbbl of oil reserves• Gas options under review

Page 47: 2006 Preliminary Results Presentation 22nd March 2007

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Block 12 – Falcon prospect

Falcon – Top Middle DuaSands Depth Structure

Top ThongTop Intra Middle DuaTop MD1Near Top MD5Top MD6Top Cau

A

A’

A’

Falcon

Falcon A

Falcon Prospect – max closingContour 2990mSS

Falcon Prospect• 2007: 3D seismic programme• Exploration well in 2007/8

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Peacock Prospect Top Middle Dua Sands

Depth Map

Peacock Prospect• 2007: 3D seismic programme• Exploration well in 2008

Peacock

Peacock Prospect

Peacock Prospect

Vietnam Block 12 – Peacock prospect

Page 49: 2006 Preliminary Results Presentation 22nd March 2007

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Vietnam – Blocks 7 & 8/97

Block 7 & 8/97Premier 45%

• Force Majeure lifted in November 2006

• Adjacent to Block 12 (success in 2006) and newly awarded Tuna Block in Indonesia

• Numerous prospects and leads identified on seismic

• First well to be drilled in 2008/9

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Vietnam – Blocks 7 & 8/97

EW

Blue Marlin Prospect

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Red Grouper Prospect

Block 7 & 8/97 – Red Grouper Prospect

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Vietnam Block 12 – long term vision

• Repeat the successful model from West Natuna Block A

• Start with an FPSO based oil development

• Follow up with gas offtakethrough a shared pipeline to power generation

• Continue to integrate exploration successes

• Potential synergies with Block 7 & 8/97 and Tuna Block in Indonesia

Page 53: 2006 Preliminary Results Presentation 22nd March 2007

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Corporate Strategy• Deliver value through a growth focused

independent upstream E&P business• Production growth through

development projects• Focused high impact exploration• Pursuit of acquisitions which are

complementary to existing assets and knowledge base

Medium Term Targets• Targeting production growth to

50,000 bopd• 4 high impact wells per annum within

disciplined spend

Corporate strategy

Page 54: 2006 Preliminary Results Presentation 22nd March 2007

Page 54 | 22nd March 2007

Reserve additions

• West Natuna• North Sumatra

Block A• Blackbird/Dua• Frøy• Pakistan

100

Reserves/Resources(mmboe)

Opening Production Resourceadditions

Proforma0

50

200

150

250

Closing

300

350Resources movementBooked reserves movementResourcesBooked reserves

232

302

Scott

165164152

289

Page 55: 2006 Preliminary Results Presentation 22nd March 2007

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Development schedule

WNBA GSA-2

Ratna

Blackbird / Dua

NSBA–Alur Siwah

Frøy

Pakistan

2007 2008 2009 2010

ProjectInitiation

ConceptSelection

ProjectSanction

FirstProduction

Study Design ExecuteOperated

Non-operated

Page 56: 2006 Preliminary Results Presentation 22nd March 2007

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5 Year production

Production Profile(boepd)

2006

60000

0

80000

2007 2008 2009 2011

50000

40000

30000

20000

10000

(NB: Only includes discovered hydrocarbons (no exploration success assumed or acquisitions))

New projectsBooked reserves

70000

2010

Production Profile by Region(boepd)

2006

60000

0

80000

2007 2008 2009 2011

50000

40000

30000

20000

10000

70000

West AfricaAsiaM/East & PakistanNorth Sea

2010

Page 57: 2006 Preliminary Results Presentation 22nd March 2007

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Development capex

Future Field Capex by Region($ million)

0

300

250

200

150

100

50

West AfricaAsiaM. East & PakistanNorth Sea

Future Field Capex($ million)

0

300

250

200

150

100

50

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

New projectsBooked reserves

Page 58: 2006 Preliminary Results Presentation 22nd March 2007

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Exploration – the next 12 months

Contingent wells

North SeaUK : 39/7 Peveril

M/East & PakistanEgypt : NW Gemsa Gemsa WellPakistan : Indus Anne-1

West AfricaGuinea Bissau : Esperanca Espinafre-1

Eirozes-1Gabon : Themis Themis-1

AsiaIndonesia : Natuna A PSC Ibu Lembu-1

Gajah Sumatera-2Lembu Peteng-2TenggilingKakak Lembu-1

Kakap Pancing-1Vietnam : 12E & 12W Falcon-1 Philippines : Ragay Gulf Monte CristoIndia : Cachar Masimpur-3

Hailakandi-1Kanchanpur-1

JUN JUL AUG SEPAPR MAY OCT NOV DEC FEB2007MAR

High impact wellsFirm wells

2008JAN

Timing depends on rig availability

Page 59: 2006 Preliminary Results Presentation 22nd March 2007

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12 months ahead

• Progress development sanctions

• High impact exploration in Guinea Bissau, India, UK, Pakistan

• Focus exploration efforts on 2008/9; Vietnam, Congo and follow-ups

• Complementary acquisitions to existing Businesses

Page 60: 2006 Preliminary Results Presentation 22nd March 2007

Page 60 | 22nd March 2007www.premier-oil.com 22nd March 2007