COSYSMO-IP COnstructive SYStems Engineering Cost Model – Information Processing
©2006 BAE Systems. COSYSMO Application At BAE Systems Gan Wang COSYSMO Workshop 23 rd International...
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Transcript of ©2006 BAE Systems. COSYSMO Application At BAE Systems Gan Wang COSYSMO Workshop 23 rd International...
©2006 BAE Systems.
COSYSMO Application At BAE Systems
Gan Wang
COSYSMO Workshop23rd International Forum on COCOMO and Systems/Software Cost Modeling and ICM WorkshopUSC Campus, Los Angeles, CA Oct. 29 & 30, 2008
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COSYSMO Implementation at BAE Systems
• Developed System Engineering Estimation Model and Process (SEEMaP)
– Estimating end-to-end, system engineering and integration effort in a system development program
– Company-wide, common estimating tool deployed across major sites, lines of business (LoBs) and operating groups (OGs), including New Hampshire, San Diego, New Jersey, New York…
• Desktop tool, calibrated with historical program data across LoBs
– With organization and product line-specific calibrations
• Applied to – ROM estimates
– Engineering bid & proposal
– Trade studies
SEEMaP Workbook:Encapsulating Tool and Process
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Early Results Excellent
• Deployed in 2007-2008 to E&IS OG– Applied to: ROM, bid & proposal, risk analysis
– Mandated use by several organizations
• Outstanding correlation achieved between estimate and actual in calibrations
SEEMaP (COSYSMO) Calibration
• Early experience shows excellent result:
– Variance with other methods (bottom-up): 2–25%
– Effort to create estimate: 2-8 hours
– Cost saving and cycle time reduction: 85–95%
– (Bottom-up may take up to weeks)
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Quantitative Risk Analysis
• COSYSMO provides single-point estimates– With fixed driver counts and classification
• Integrating Crystal Ball quantifies the uncertainty and provides quantitative risk analysis through Monte Carlo Simulation
– Crystal Ball will provide a quantified output range of the various scenarios, with a probability of occurrence
– A sensitivity analysis provides insight into which inputs most effect the outcome
• Now it is possible to offer (true) 50/50, 80/20, 20/80 risk positions– Not just to claim them
Degrees of Reuse and Difficulties
Sizing Parameters
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Monte Carlo Simulation Generates an Estimate Distribution
Monte Carlo Simulation
Input Distribution
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In the Works
• Total Engineering Estimation Model and Process (TEEMaP)– Extending SEEMaP & COSYSMO capabilities to total engineering– Estimating the total, end-to-end engineering effort in development a system– Deployment in 2009
• Apply to company LCM Framework
Prepare Bid/No Bid Information
Prepare Proposal
Con
trac
t A
ccep
ted
Mob
ilize
Initial Design
Des
ign
Sys
tem
Inte
grat
ion
of S
yste
m
System Qualification
Pro
duct
ion,
In
stal
latio
n an
d C
omm
issi
onin
g
In-F
ield
S
uppo
rt
Disposal
Phase Reviews
1B 2A 2B 2C 3A 3B 4 5 6 7
Milestone Reviews
TEEMaP
TEEMaPTEEMaP
SRRSDR/PDR
CDRTRR
PRR
ROM to determine Cost & Risk positions relative to PTW Develop cost
targets & validation of total/functional engineering bids
Validate contract pricing & quick trades for scope negotiation
TEEMaPDevelop engineering baselines and milestone reviews & ETCs
TEEMaP
Evaluate technology insertion, upgrades, & new opportunities