20 October 2021 Sector Update

Power Plus

HSIE Research is also available on Bloomberg ERH HDF <GO>& Thomson Reuters

Demand remains strong but coal stock is critical

Generation growth slowed down in Sep’21 to 0.2% YoY, after registering a

strong 17% YoY rise in Aug’21, due to subdued power demand, given the

heavy monsoon. However, demand revived in Oct’21, rising ~5% YoY month

to date, as supply fell short of it by 1.4% due to falling coal inventories across

plants. Coal stocks declined 78% YoY across stations with 93 plants having

stocks of less than 4 days, as on date. The demand-supply deficit led to ~300%

YoY/150% MoM rise in merchant rates in Oct’21 to INR10.9/unit. Coal

dispatches to power sector are expected to improve in the coming days with

CIL regulating its supplies to other sectors and speeding up evacuation of its

~40 MT of inventories lying at its bed. The outstanding dues of discoms, as of

Oct’21, remain at INR963 bn (-24% YoY but +2% MoM due to rise in power

offtake). The proposed reforms like the Draft Electricity Amendment Bill,

smart metering, and Direct Benefit Transfer scheme would be the silver lining

that can revive the sector. NTPC, PGCIL, and CESC are our top picks.

Demand revives in Oct’21: Power demand, which remained subdued at 1.2% in

Sep’21, has grown ~5% YoY in Oct’21 with the passing of monsoons and arrival

of festive season. Generation in Sep’21 remained flat for the coal segment (+0.4%

YoY) but was down across the gas (-21.3% YoY), hydro (-5.7% YoY) and nuclear

segments (-2.3% YoY). However, renewables (RES) saw strong 19.8% YoY rise in

generation in Sep’21. Overall generation remained flat at +0.2% YoY in Sep’21.

NTPC’s generation was flat YoY: NTPC’s generation remained strong with

10.4%/9.4% YoY increase in Sep’21/Q2FY22. However, it fell significantly across

the Tata Power stations by 56.8%/40.5% YoY during the same period due to

lower generation across the Mundra plant (on rising coal prices). During

Q2FY22, generation increased for NHPC (+2.9% YoY), while it remained flat for

CESC (+1% YoY). Generation declined for JSW Energy (-12.8% YoY) in Q2FY22.

Coal stock deteriorates and merchant rates zoom on higher demand: Coal

stocks across power stations deteriorated in Oct’21 with as many as 93 stations

having supercritical level of inventories (<4 days of coal stock). Low operation of

imported coal-based stations due to steep rise in international coal prices (+215%

YoY to US$160/tonne), rise in freight cost, robust power demand due to rise in

temperature, arrival of festive season, supply restrictions by CIL to ~14GW of

capacity for non-clearances for past dues, and low coal inventory across power

stations during Sep’21 led to a 78% YoY decline in coal stocks across power

stations. Also, lower wind generation across Tamil Nadu, Gujarat, and AP

forced them to procure power from the spot market. Supply crisis led to a ~300%

YoY rise in spot rates to INR10.9/unit during Oct’21. However, with the

intervention of coal and power ministry, the situation is expected to be

normalised in 7-10 days with CIL expected to enhance its dispatch and clear off

~40 MT of its inventory. Also, with few states agreeing to procure power at

higher rates from Mundra stations and the onset of winter in Nov’21 should

bring down the deficit.

Our view: While the overall demand/generation increased ~13% YoY each in

YTDFY22, we expect power demand to rise 12% in FY22, led by the country’s

improved economic activity. The central government’s liquidity package under

the Atmanirbhar scheme has significantly improved liquidity for discoms.

Further, with CCEA approving the INR3.03trn reform-linked package, we can

expect improved infrastructure Capex from discoms over the next 3-4 years. This

would, in our view, lower AT&C losses, nullify the ACS-ARR gap, and promote

private participation in the discom space.

Company Reco TP Upside

(%)

NTPC Buy 143* -4%

PGCIL Add 196* -1%

NHPC Add 29* -14%

CESC Buy 1011 6%

JSW Energy Sell 118 -68%

Tata Power Buy 156* -32%

Torrent Power Add 511 0%

* Under Review

FY23E P/BV (x) PER (X)

NTPC 1.1 8.6

PGCIL 1.6 9.9

NHPC 1.0 9.6

CESC 1.0 8.5

JSW Energy 3.8 57.0

Tata Power 2.9 29.7

Torrent Power 2.0 13.4

Anuj Upadhyay

anuj.upadhyay@hdfcsec.com

+91-22-6171-7356

Page | 2

Power Plus

Story in charts

Exhibit 1: Generation witnessed a revival in Oct’21, led by rise in temperature and arrival of festive season

Source: HSIE Research, CEA

Exhibit 2: PLF declined across all segments, barring RES Exhibit 3: YTDFY22, PLF improved across all sectors,

barring gas

Source: HSIE Research, Industry Source: HSIE Research, Industry

Exhibit 4: Both peak and base deficits remained low in Sep’21 but increased during H1 Oct’21

-5.7 0.0

2.8 9.6

-8.2

-23.4 -15.5

-10.9

-2.7 -1.7

4.8 9.7

0.4 4.2 5.1 2.1

19.5

39.4

6.6 8.0 10.1

16.9

0.2 5.0

-30.0

-20.0

-10.0

0.0

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20.0

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40.0

50.0

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v-1

9

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-19

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-20

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-20

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Ap

r-20

May

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Jun

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20

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g-2

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-20

Oct

-20

No

v-2

0

Dec

-20

Jan

-21

Feb

-21

Mar

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Ap

r-21

May

-21

Jun

-21

Jul-

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Au

g-2

1

Sep

-21

Oct

-21

54.3

24.1

78.4

56.6

16.0

53.8

19.0

76.6

52.5

16.9

0

20

40

60

80

100

Coal Gas Nuclear Hydro Renewables

PLF (%) September 20 September 21

54.2

22.7

38.0

70.7

17.0

57.8

19.4

45.8

72.3

20.1

0

20

40

60

80

Coal Gas Hydro Nuclear Renewables

PLF (%) FY21 YTDFY22

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

No

v-1

7

Jan

-18

Mar

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May

-18

Jul-

18

Sep

-18

No

v-1

8

Jan

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Mar

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May

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Sep

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No

v-1

9

Jan

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Mar

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Jul-

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Sep

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v-2

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Jan

-21

Mar

-21

May

-21

Jul-

21

Sep

-21

(%) Base deficit Peak deficit

8.46.9

Page | 3

Power Plus

Exhibit 5: Merchant rates witnessed 300% rise in Oct’21 Exhibit 6: Coal stocks across 112 plants reach subcritical

level (<7 days of inventory)

Source: HSIE Research, Industry Source: HSIE Research, PRAAPTI

Generation, PLF, and spot prices

Demand and generation saw an uptick in Oct’21

Power demand and generation remained subdued in Sep’21 (+0.2% YoY) due to

the heavy monsoon. Generation remained flat across coal (+0.4% YoY) but saw

steep decline across the gas (-21.3% YoY), hydro (-5.7% YoY) and nuclear (-2.3%

YoY) segments. This was partially offset by a robust 19.8% YoY rise in generation

across the RES, led by incremental capacity addition. However, demand revived

in H1 Oct’21 with the arrival of festive season and rise in temperature, witnessing

~5% YoY rise in power generation and demand.

Exhibit 7: Generation remained flat YoY in Sep’21 Exhibit 8: RES saw steep growth in Sep’21

Source: CEA, HSIE Research Source: CEA, HSIE Research

During Sep’21, the peak power demand improved steeply across Maharashtra,

Chhattisgarh, Karnataka, Kerala, TN, Telangana and Orissa on a low YoY base.

Demand, however, declined across Punjab, Rajasthan, UP, Haryana and

Jharkhand.

Power generation also increased significantly across Uttarakhand, Maharashtra,

Chhattisgarh, Karnataka, Kerala, TN, Telangana, Bihar and Orissa, mirroring the

growth in demand. Generation, however, declined steeply in Haryana, Punjab

Rajasthan, Gujarat and Chhattisgarh. Fall in generation in Gujarat is largely due

to a fall in Mundra plant generation, which is attributable to a steep rise in

imported coal prices, making the plant unviable to operate at current level.

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

Ap

r 19

Jun

19

Au

g 1

9

Oct

19

Dec

19

Feb

20

Ap

r 20

Jun

20

Au

g 2

0

Oct

20

Dec

20

Feb

21

Ap

r 21

Jun

21

Au

g 2

1

Oct

21

INR/Unit 10.9

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

62

88

112

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Au

g-2

0

Sep

-20

Oct

-20

No

v-2

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Dec

-20

Jan

-21

Feb

-21

Mar

-21

Ap

r-21

May

-21

Jun

-21

Jul-

21

Au

g-2

1

Sep

-21

Oct

-21

(No of

Power

Plants)

120.6 120.8

671.9

756.3

0.0

100.0

200.0

300.0

400.0

500.0

600.0

700.0

800.0

September 20 September 21 YTDFY21 YTDFY22

(BUs)

0.4

(21.3)

(5.7) (2.3) (8.0)

19.8

(30)

(20)

(10)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Coal Gas Hydro Nuclear Imports RES

(%)

Page | 4

Power Plus

Exhibit 9: State-wise generation and demand scenario on a monthly basis

Source: CEA, HSIE Research

-2% -7%

-2%

1%

-28% -11%

3%

18%

-14%

-65%

-6% 17%

6%

80%

13%

26%

38%

10%

-5% 17%

1%

-11%

-10%

1% 4%

-3%

-5%

-3% 0%

12%

-2%

1%

11%

10%

31% 12%

9%

6% 8%

-3% 17%

0%

-80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Delhi

Haryana

HP

J&K

Punjab

Rajasthan

UP

Uttarakhand

Chhattisgarh

Gujarat

MP

Maharashtra

AP

Karnataka

Kerala

TN

Telangana

Bihar

Jharkhand

Orissa

WB

Demand growth YoY Generation growth YoY

Page | 5

Power Plus

Company performance

NTPC’s power generation grew steeply by 10.4% YoY to 24.6bn units, with a

12.9% YoY rise at coal plants, which was partially offset by a 41.6% YoY decline

in generation at the gas-based plants. NTPC generation in Q2FY22 also increased

significantly by 9.4% YoY to 74.6bn units, led by 13.0% YoY rise in coal plants.

Generation, however, fell significantly at the Tata Power stations to 56.8% YoY in

Sep’21 and 40.5% YoY in Q2FY22 as rising international coal prices led to lower

generation (YoY) across the Mundra plant.

During Q2FY22, generation increased across NHPC (+2.9% YoY), while it

remained flat for CESC (+1% YoY). Generation declined across JSW Energy (-

12.8% YoY) in Q2FY22.

Exhibit 10: Company-wise generation

Company Capacity (MW) Generation

Sept'21 (GWH)

YoY % growth

(Sept'21)

Generation

YTDFY22

(GWH)

% Growth

(YTDFY22)

% coal PLF

(current

month)

% Gas PLF

(current

month)

% hydro PLF

(current

month)

NTPC 56,046 24,572 10.4 1,46,616 14.3 66 19 73

Tata Power 6,720 1,553 (56.8) 12,208 (38.1) 31 63 -

Reliance Power 5,760 2,892 (16.5) 19,168 (6.9) 69 - -

GMR 1,640 833 80.2 5,113 3.0 - 70 -

GVK 919 207 (11.5) 1,152 32.1 - 31 -

CESC 2,325 1,265 1.0 7,615 7.2 75 - -

Jindal 4,720 1,688 (10.9) 11,153 65.2 49 - -

Lanco 2,178 326 (35.9) 2,404 (20.6) 59 4 -

Adani 9,240 2,452 (47.5) 22,791 (2.1) 36 - -

JSW Energy 4,531 2,015 (12.8) 12,696 1.7 61 - -

GIPCL 660 248 26.6 1,393 (12.3) 68 0 -

Rattan India 2,700 652 NA 4,609 NA 33 - -

NHPC 5,121 2,931 2.9 17,061 (2.2) - - 74

SJVN 1,912 1,284 (1.1) 6,735 (4.9) - - 92

Source: CEA, HSIE Research

Exhibit 11: PLF declined across all segments, barring RES plants

Source: HSIE Research

54.3

24.1

78.4

56.6

16.0

53.8

19.0

76.6

52.5

16.9

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

Coal Gas Nuclear Hydro Renewables

PLF (%) September 20 September 21

Page | 6

Power Plus

Exhibit 12: PLF performance (YTDFY22) – coal, nuclear and RES reported an

improvement

Source: CEA, HSIE Research

Deficit: Deficits remained at lower levels during Sep’21.

Exhibit 13: Peak and base deficits for Sep’21

Source: CEA, HSIE Research

Exhibit 14: Region-wise base deficit and peak deficit

(Sep’21)

Region Base Deficit (%) Peak Deficit (%)

Northern region (0.6) (0.6)

Western region 0.0 0.0

Southern region 0.0 0.0

Eastern Region (0.5) 0.0

North Eastern region 0.0 0.0

All India (0.3) (0.2)

Source: CEA, HDFC Securities

Exhibit 15: Deficit status of eight major states (Sep’21)

Major deficit states Base Deficit (%) Peak Deficit (%)

J&K (7.2) (7.5)

Bihar (1.4) 0.0

AP (0.1) 0.0

Karnataka 0.0 0.0

UP (0.9) 0.0

Telangana 0.0 0.0

Tamil Nadu 0.0 (0.8)

Kerala 0.0 0.0

Source: CEA, HDFC Securities

Exhibit 16: Peak deficit and base deficit trend

Source: CEA, HSIE Research

54.2

22.7

38.0

70.7

17.0

57.8

19.4

45.8

72.3

20.1

0

20

40

60

80

Coal Gas Hydro Nuclear Renewables

% FY21 YTDFY22

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

Base Defict Peak Deficit

% deficit September-20 September-21

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

Jan

-18

Mar

-18

May

-18

Jul-

18

Sep

-18

No

v-1

8

Jan

-19

Mar

-19

May

-19

Jul-

19

Sep

-19

No

v-1

9

Jan

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Mar

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May

-20

Jul-

20

Sep

-20

No

v-2

0

Jan

-21

Mar

-21

May

-21

Jul-

21

Sep

-21

(%) Base deficit Peak deficit

8.6.

Page | 7

Power Plus

Spot rates: Merchant rates increased significantly by 300% YoY to INR10.9/kWh in

Oct’21 due to rise in power demand and shortage in power supply, given the coal

crisis. However, prices are expected to normalise by the end of Oct’21, as Punjab,

Gujarat and Maharashtra have agreed to procure power from Tata’s Mundra station

at INR4.5-5.5/unit, which will lower their purchases from the exchange. Also, with

improved coal dispatches by CIL, the power generation across coal-based stations is

expected to improve, going ahead.

Exhibit 17: Spot exchange rate on IEX

Source: IEX, HSIE Research

Exhibit 18: Month-wise zonal IEX average price trend

Zone Oct'21 Oct'20 YoY (%) Sept'21 MoM (%)

A1 10.92 2.73 299.6 4.40 148.33

A2 10.92 2.73 299.6 4.40 148.33

E1 10.92 2.73 299.6 4.40 148.33

E2 10.92 2.73 299.6 4.40 148.33

N1 10.92 2.73 299.6 4.40 148.33

N2 10.92 2.73 299.6 4.40 148.33

N3 10.92 2.73 299.6 4.40 148.33

S1 10.92 2.74 298.3 4.40 148.33

S2 10.92 2.74 298.3 4.40 148.33

W1 10.92 2.73 299.6 4.40 148.33

W2 10.92 2.73 299.6 4.40 148.33

W3 10.92 2.73 299.6 4.40 148.33

MCP 10.92 2.74 299.2 4.40 148.33

Source: IEX, HSIE Research

2.5 2.4 2.6 2.3 2.5 2.4 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.8 3.2 3.4 3.8 3.7 2.8 3.1 2.9

5.1 4.4

10.9

0.0

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4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

Mar

20

Ap

r 20

May

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Jun

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Jul

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g 2

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Feb

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May

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g 2

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Oct

21

INR/Unit

A1 - Tripura, Meghalaya, Manipur,

Mizoram, Nagaland

A2 - Assam, Arunachal Pradesh

E1 - WB, Sikkim, Bihar, Jharkhand

E2 - Orissa

N1 - J&K, HP, Chandigarh, Haryana

N2 - UP, Uttaranchal, Rajasthan,

Delhi

N3 - Punjab

S1 - AP, Telangana, Karnataka,

Pondicherry (Yanam), South Goa

S2 - TN, Kerala, Pondicherry

(Puducherry), Pondicherry

(Karaikal), Pondicherry (Mahe)

W1 - MP

W2 - Maharashtra, Gujarat, Daman

and Diu, Dadra and Nagar

Haveli, North Goa

W3- Chhattisgarh

Page | 8

Power Plus

Fuel supply, prices: Coal production/dispatches to power stations increased by

3.1%/5.4 % YoY to 45.2 MT/52.9 MT in Sep’21, while it was up 10.1%/30.1% YoY

to 279.8MT/282.9MT in YTDFY22. The growth was led by improved fuel demand

from the power gencos and a low YoY base. MCL, which is the largest

contributor to CIL production, saw a 15.6% YoY rise in production to 12.2 MT in

Sep’21, while NCL, which is the second major contributor, saw a 3.2% YoY rise in

production to 9.6 MT.

The outstanding dues of power generators to CIL, as of Aug’21, declined to

INR183.3bn vs INR203.8bn in Jun’21.

Inventory at power stations deteriorated significantly in Oct’21 with as many as

112 stations facing subcritical levels of inventories (<7 days of coal stock) and 93

plants facing supercritical level of inventories (<4 days of coal stock). Low

operation of imported coal-based stations due to a steep rise in international coal

prices (+215% YoY to US$160/tonne), rise in freight cost, robust power demand

due to rise in temperature, arrival of festive season, supply restrictions by CIL to

~14GW of capacity for non-clearances for past dues and low coal inventory across

power stations during Sep’21 led to a 78% YoY decline in coal stocks across

power stations.

Exhibit 19: Number of power plants facing subcritical level of inventory (less than seven days)

Source: CEA, HSIE Research

As of Oct’21, coal stocks at 135 power plants decreased by 77.9% YoY to 7.5mn

tons (98.6% domestic and 1.4% imported). The share of imports has fallen from

4.8% in Jun’19, largely due to the steep rise in international coal prices.

Exhibit 20: Coal production and dispatch continue to rise in Sep’21

Source: Ministry of Coal, HSIE Research

International coal prices (RB Index 6,300 kcal) too skyrocketed to US$230/MT

(+300% YoY) in Oct’21 amidst increased procurement from Europe, US and China

on the back of a steep rise in RLNG prices and the onset of severe winter. The

HBA Index, on the other hand, also increased 216% YoY to US$162/ton in Oct’21.

The rise in international coal prices had led to low imports and curbs in power

4 4 4 4 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

62

88

112

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Oct

-19

No

v-1

9

Dec

-19

Jan

-20

Feb

-20

Mar

-20

Ap

r-20

May

-20

Jun

-20

Jul-

20

Au

g-2

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Sep

-20

Oct

-20

No

v-2

0

Dec

-20

Jan

-21

Feb

-21

Mar

-21

Ap

r-21

May

-21

Jun

-21

Jul-

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Au

g-2

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Sep

-21

Oct

-21

(No of Power Plants)

-40.0

-20.0

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

-

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

Sep

-20

Oct

-20

No

v-2

0

Dec

-20

Jan

-21

Feb

-21

Mar

-21

Ap

r-21

May

-21

Jun

-21

Jul-

21

Au

g-2

1

Sep

-21

(%) (Mn Tonnes)

Coal production Coal dispatch to power sector

Coal Production Dispatch to Power

Page | 9

Power Plus

generation at the Mundra stations of Tata Power and Adani Power, which forced

Gujarat to procure expensive power from the spot market. However, recently,

Punjab, Gujarat and Maharashtra have agreed to procure power from the

Mundra station at a higher rate of INR4.5-5.5/unit, which should ease the

dependency on these states on spot market and, hence, bring down the spot rates.

Exhibit 21: International coal price trend (RB Index 6300 kcal) Oct’21

Source: HSIE Research

Exhibit 22: International coal price trend (Indonesian coal - HBA index) Oct’21

Source: HSIE Research

Coal imports declined by 52.3% YoY to 1.9 mn tonne in Aug’21 due to a steep rise in international coal prices and freight rates.

Exhibit 23: Non coking coal import by domestic power developers

Source: CEA, HSIE Research

There has been a rising trend in international freight charges for all routes since Jan’21, led by increased EXIM trade and higher demand for fuel in the country.

0

50

100

150

200

250

Jan

-16

Ap

r-16

Jul-

16

Oct

-16

Jan

-17

Ap

r-17

Jul-

17

Oct

-17

Jan

-18

Ap

r-18

Jul-

18

Oct

-18

Jan

-19

Ap

r-19

Jul-

19

Oct

-19

Jan

-20

Ap

r-20

Jul-

20

Oct

-20

Jan

-21

Ap

r-21

Jul-

21

Oct

-21

($/tonne)

0.00

20.00

40.00

60.00

80.00

100.00

120.00

140.00

160.00

180.00

Oct

-14

Feb

-15

Jun

-15

Oct

-15

Feb

-16

Jun

-16

Oct

-16

Feb

-17

Jun

-17

Oct

-17

Feb

-18

Jun

-18

Oct

-18

Feb

-19

Jun

-19

Oct

-19

Feb

-20

Jun

-20

Oct

-20

Feb

-21

Jun

-21

Oct

-21

($/tonne)

4.1 3.9

3.4 3.1

4.3

2.8 2.8

2.0 1.9

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21 Aug-21

Non - coking Coal Import (Mn Tonne)

Page | 10

Power Plus

Exhibit 24: Freight rates have been on a rising trend since Jan’21

Source: Elekore, HSIE Research

Capacity: In Sep’21, 900 MW of power capacities were added in the country (100 MW

hydro and 800 MW of RES capacity). YTD FY22, 6.6GW of net capacity has been

added into the system, with RES adding 7GW, hydro adding 303 MW and 705 MW of

thermal capacities have been retired. Currently, the pan-India installed capacity

stands at 389GW.

Exhibit 25: Current capacity fuel mix

Source: CEA, HSIE Research

Outstanding dues of discoms: The total outstanding amount, though improved post

the pandemic, was up only marginally on an MoM basis due to increased power

offtake.

Exhibit 26: Discoms outstanding dues towards gencos

Source: PRAAPTI, HSIE Research

Exhibit 27: Gas consumption by power sector (MMSCM/day)

Category Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21

RLNG 13 10 10 8 9 15

DOMESTIC 18 18 19 19 18 17

Total 31 28 29 27 27 32

Source: HSIE Research, Elekore

16 20

23 25 26 28 28

13 14 19 21 20 20 21

9 12 13 14 15 15 15 13 14

19 22 20 20 21

10 13 14 15 15 16 16

0

25

50

Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21

$/ton

Australia to India South Africa (RBCT) to India (West Coast)

Indonesia (Kalimantan) to India (East Coast) South Africa (RBCT) to India (East Coast)

Indonesia (Kalimantan) to India (West Coast)

53.8

6.4 1.7

12.0

26.1

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Coal Gas Nuclear Hydro RES

(%)

262 231

463

921

1,323

905 799 832 883

954 995 988 936 956

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

FY

17

FY

18

FY

19

FY

20

Jan

'21

Feb

'21

Mar

'21

Ap

r'21

May

'21

Jun

'21

July

'21

Au

g'2

1

Sep

t'21

Oct

'21

Rs bn Dues (INR bn)

Page | 11

Power Plus

Exhibit 28: Real time market (RTM) volume trend

Source: Elekore, HSIE Research

Exhibit 29: Recent RES tender result

Winning developers Capacity won (MW) Fuel Date of issuance Date of issuance

of Tender

Final tariff

(INR/kWh)

ReNew Naveen Urja Pvt. Ltd. 300 2.69 Sep-21 Wind May-21

Green Infra Wind Energy Ltd. 180 2.69 Sep-21 Wind May-21

Anupavan Renewables Pvt. Ltd. 150 2.69 Sep-21 Wind May-21

Adani Renewable Energy Holding Fifteen Ltd. 450 2.7 Sep-21 Wind May-21

Azure Power India Pvt. Ltd. 120 2.7 Sep-21 Wind May-21

TP Saurya Limited 160 2.15 Aug-21 Solar Jan-20

TP Saurya Limited 170 2.14 Aug-21 Solar Jan-20

AlJomaih Energy and Water Co. 170 2.15 Aug-21 Solar Jan-20

Tata Power Solar Systems Ltd. 20 NA Aug-21 Solar Dec-20

SJVN Ltd. 200 3.11 Aug-21 Solar Dec-20

NTPC Ltd. 450 2.34 Aug-21 Solar Apr-21

NLC India Ltd. 150 2.34 Aug-21 Solar Apr-21

Project Ten Renewable Power Pvt. Ltd. 450 2.34 Aug-21 Solar Apr-21

Azure Power India Pvt. Ltd. 150 2.35 Aug-21 Solar Apr-21

Acme Solar Holdings Private Limited 300 2.42 Jul-21 Solar May-21

Source: HSIE Research, Elekore

Exhibit 30: Peer valuation table

Company CMP

(INR) RECO

TP

(INR)

P/BV (x) RoE (%) EV/EBITDA (x) Dividend yield (%) P/E (x)

FY21 FY22E FY23E FY21 FY22E FY23E FY21 FY22E FY23E FY21 FY22E FY23E FY21 FY22E FY23E

NTPC 149 Buy 143* 1.3 1.2 1.1 13.2 13.4 13.7 10.3 9.1 8.4 4.3 4.2 4.7 10.2 9.5 8.6

PGCIL 199 Buy 196* 1.4 1.7 1.6 17.9 17.3 16.8 6.9 7.1 6.8 6.0 5.7 6.1 8.4 10.5 9.9

NHPC 34 Add 29* 1.0 1.0 0.9 10.0 10.4 10.0 11.7 11.4 11.3 4.7 4.9 5.0 10.0 9.7 9.6

CESC 96 Buy 101 1.2 1.1 1.0 12.1 13.7 14.0 16.5 11.4 10.5 4.7 4.5 4.5 9.3 9.0 8.5

JSW

Energy 373 Sell 118 4.2 4.0 3.8 6.3 6.8 6.9 23.6 22.1 21.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 74.5 60.2 57.0

Tata

Power 231 Buy 156* 3.3 3.1 2.9 6.1 8.2 8.9 15.3 12.6 11.8 0.7 0.8 0.8 46.3 34.0 29.7

Torrent

Power 512 Add 511 2.4 2.2 2.0 13.4 15.1 15.5 8.9 7.5 7.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 19.1 14.5 13.4

Source: HSIE Research; * - Under Review

1363 1408 1411

1726 1596

1864 1842

1409 1456 1440

1726 1596

1862 1828

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21 Aug-21 Sep-21

RTM volume (MUs)

Buyer Seller

Page | 12

Power Plus

Rating Criteria

BUY: >+15% return potential

ADD: +5% to +15% return potential

REDUCE: -10% to +5% return potential

SELL: >10% Downside return potential

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