2 © Pro Bono Economics PBE acts as a broker, matching professional economists with charities; ...

2© Pro Bono Economics

PBE acts as a broker, matching professional economists with charities;

providing pro bono help to measure performance and understand charity impact; and

fostering a culture of volunteering within the economics profession

© Pro Bono Economics

Vfm of interventions UK analysis

Data collection

advice

Other economic

advice

Some charities PBE has helped..

http://www.stgilestrust.org.uk/

http://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=3Qt08Vh9cUSBwM&tbnid=LqJbmRsruBvXCM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://dartington.org.uk/&ei=hCNAUvTCMuGw0QXyy4HQCw&bvm=bv.52434380,d.d2k&psig=AFQjCNFhv0UGQEAY7kTiThe4y-KAI333cA&ust=1380021505323720

http://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=uE9BhaB0QRMZrM&tbnid=1HhsJwOLBHK-pM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://www.guess2give.com/national-childrens-bureau-on-guess2give/&ei=sCVAUrq5AsqI0AW8woGYCw&bvm=bv.52434380,d.d2k&psig=AFQjCNG0FoS-yk4DpfWLQ9WyUM4SZK3LiQ&ust=1380022056935241

http://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=g_SkiQI9KOkMqM&tbnid=VTV5aAzuPuUfVM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://uk.virginmoneygiving.com/fundraiser-web/fundraiser/showFundraiserProfilePage.action?userUrl=SalandNick&isTeam=true&ei=7MHTUsOIIKj70gWhjoDoAw&bvm=bv.59026428,d.ZGU&psig=AFQjCNGtrGMg-1ouw71NiEyhFI_jYl6HXQ&ust=1389695851322220

http://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=g_SkiQI9KOkMqM&tbnid=VTV5aAzuPuUfVM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://uk.virginmoneygiving.com/fundraiser-web/fundraiser/showFundraiserProfilePage.action?userUrl=SalandNick&isTeam=true&ei=7MHTUsOIIKj70gWhjoDoAw&bvm=bv.59026428,d.ZGU&psig=AFQjCNGtrGMg-1ouw71NiEyhFI_jYl6HXQ&ust=1389695851322220

http://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=woSb4oXG4BE9sM&tbnid=kOPvWJaerpdGsM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://www.david-tennant-news-dev.com/charity/circle-scotland&ei=2RgCU6ywBeam0AXphICYBA&bvm=bv.61535280,d.d2k&psig=AFQjCNGQ_P4MHzOr6UlWeZBupU3_9aLVUQ&ust=1392732736384729

http://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CAQQjRw&url=http://www.nationalnumeracy.org.uk/&ei=2LQxU86VO8rLhAfK_IDICw&usg=AFQjCNF839_mGKVcu6jBGiPB0Dl15oxBWA&bvm=bv.63587204,d.ZG4

Introduction to CBA


CBA is for everyone…• General principles are logical, common sense• Weighing up costs and benefits in a systematic

way• Results help inform negotiations and decisions • Only need a proportionate CBA• Help is available (webinar/relationship

manager/tools/consultancy)

• Logic model/Theory of Change (working out what benefits/outcomes you’re aiming for and how): necessary first step

• You’ll need one by end August


Begin now…• Do CBA before you start the project…

– it will be heavily based on assumptions – be explicit about them, and give as much detail as possible

• Different levels of detail needed for different sizes and shapes of projects

• Input to NEM model will be needed for the most complex interventions- consistency of presentation to help quality assurance

• But first, everyone needs a good theory of change…

Logic chainTheory of change

Logic model

Conditions

Local context

Policy context

What needs to be in place for change to occur?

RationaleEvidence & assumptions linking outputs to outcomes & impacts

InputsWhat resourcesdo you have?

ActivitiesWhat will the partnership do?

COSTS

OutputsWhat will the partnershipprovide?COSTS

Intended ImpactsWhat are you trying to achieve?

BENEFITS

Programme ObjectivesHigh level summary of intended outcomes

Project:

Intended OutcomesWhat is the change you want to see?

BENEFITS

Conditions

Local context

Policy context





COSTS


Intended ImpactsWhat are you trying to achieve?Improved health

BENEFITS


Project:

Intended OutcomesWhat is the change you want to see?

BENEFITS

Conditions

Local context

Policy context





COSTS



BENEFITS


Project:

Intended OutcomesWhat is the change you want to see?+50% uptake of health advice by young mothers

BENEFITS

Conditions

Local context

Policy context





COSTS

OutputsSpace for 1 GP& 2 health visitorsin Children’sCentre


BENEFITS


Project:


BENEFITS

Conditions

Local context

Policy context




ActivitiesManageChildren’s CentreAlign GP /HealthVisitor budgets



BENEFITS


Project:


BENEFITS

Conditions

Local context

Policy context



Inputs£50K Budget forChildren’sCentre Manager




BENEFITS


Project:


BENEFITS

Conditions

Local context

Policy context







BENEFITS

Programme ObjectivesImproving health of mothers and children by increasing their access to advice

Project:


BENEFITS

Conditions

Local context: Young mothers not visiting GP/Health Centre for routine baby check ups

Policy context: CCG looking for improved outcomes

Conditions: Willingness of local GP practice to allocate staff to Children’s Centre






BENEFITS

Programme ObjectivesImproving health of mothers and children by increasing their access to advice

Project:


BENEFITS

17


Getting to a good ToC…1. Set out the pathway…

• involve as many stakeholders as possible• include as many numbers as possible • what happens if the conditions aren’t met? Is there a plan

B?2*. Check to see if it’s…

• plausible – is the logic correct and is there evidence underpinning the assumptions?

• doable – do you have access to sufficient resources to deliver?

• testable – are there credible ways to see if predictions hold true?

• meaningful – are the outcomes important and worth the effort?

*Adapted from James P. Connell and Adena M. Klem: You Can Get There From Here

JOURNAL OF EDUCATION AND PSYCHOLOGICAL CONSULTATION 2000

Costs, Outcomes & Benefits

19


What are the costs of the project…?

…all ADDITIONAL resources needed to deliver the project:• Capital

one-off e.g. purchase of new building

• Revenuevary by scale of activity e.g. salaries

• In-kind e.g. facilities provided free of charge; volunteer time

20


Fine tuning…• Which agencies/individuals bear the costs?

• When do the costs occur?

• Adjust for optimism bias- (risks around the evidence/data)• Adds to costs

21


What are the benefits/outcomes – put numbers on …

• New delivery model (NDM) outcomes• Total population and target population = need• Level of engagement and retention rate• Success in achieving the desired outcomes

• Business as Usual (BAU) outcomes(What would have happened without the new delivery model?)= deadweight

• Forecast trends in outcome indicators over duration of project

• Comparator areas• Control groups

22


How do you estimate impact…?1. Estimate outcomes (NDM)2. Best estimate of what would have happened anyway (BAU)3. NDM - BAU = impact• But - an estimate minus an estimate = an estimate

• Be clear about your assumptions• Will some of the benefit be felt outside the area?• Will some of the benefits be at the expense of

others?

23


Fine tuning…• Which agencies/individuals achieve the benefits?

• When do the benefits occur? = lag

• For everyone? = drop-off

• Adjust for optimism bias –risks around evidence/data Reduces benefits

24


It’s not all about cashable savings…Types of benefit:• Fiscal

• Savings to the public sector, if cashable• Economic

• Fiscal benefits - transfers + non-cashable public sector savings

• + benefits to the economy (increased output) • Social

• Improved well-being, community cohesion etc.Values in NEM Cost database/CBA spreadsheet

25

What outputs do you get from CBA..? • Economic Case

• Net present public value = • Public benefits (economic & social) – Public costs

• Public value for money benefit cost ratio = • additional £s of economic & social benefits for

£1 of public spending

• Financial Case

• Net present budget impact =• Fiscal costs – Cashable fiscal benefits

• Financial return on investment• Additional £s of cashable fiscal benefit for £1 of

public spending

• Payback period• Year when the benefits are greater than the

costs

• It looks complicated

• Keep it simple• Get help


Support

27


Sources of help…• Webinars & Workshops

• Logic chain in July• CBA in September

• Guidance• Our Place website > resources

• Cost benefit analysis guidance for local partnerships• Excel model & Unit cost database

www.neweconomymanchester.com

• Direct support • via Locality and Relationship Managers

http://www.neweconomymanchester.com/

2 © Pro Bono Economics PBE acts as a broker, matching professional economists with charities; ...

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