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ualR

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roup

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l Rep

ort b

y W

ork

Gro

up 2

on U

ncer

tain

ty A

naly

sis

and

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met

erEs

timat

ion

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met

er E

stim

atio

nTo

m N

icho

lson

, U.S

. Nuc

lear

Reg

ulat

ory

Com

mis

sion

M

Hill

US

Gl

ilS

Mar

y H

ill, U

.S. G

eolo

gica

l Sur

vey

2012

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ME

M A

nnua

l Pub

lic M

eetin

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ovem

ber9

2012

Nov

embe

r 9, 2

012

US

GS

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esto

n, V

A

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line

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ork

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up 2

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bjec

tive

and

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ls

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artic

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ts

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esan

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chni

calP

roje

cts

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tiviti

es a

nd T

echn

ical

Pro

ject

s

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min

ars

at th

e W

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etho

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ls a

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pplic

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ns

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rwar

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rate

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ectiv

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ing

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new

rese

arch

con

duct

ed

by U

.S. F

eder

al a

genc

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on:

tti

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ram

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est

imat

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unce

rtain

ty a

sses

smen

ti

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ld

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ns

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ti

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cus

on s

trate

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tech

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sen

sitiv

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naly

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need

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ach

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obje

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sear

ch s

taff

and

thei

r man

agem

ent

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it

dt

td

fli

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thru

effi

cien

t and

targ

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use

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mite

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sour

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Wor

k G

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cs:

B

th

l

Dev

elop

a c

reat

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col

labo

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viro

nmen

t to

adva

nce

pa

ram

eter

est

imat

ion

in th

e co

ntex

t of m

odel

dev

elop

men

t .

sour

ces

of u

ncer

tain

ty in

the

cont

ext o

f mod

el p

redi

ctio

ns.

Bat

ch s

cale

(0

.01m

)

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l

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elop

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omm

on te

rmin

olog

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tify

inno

vativ

e ap

plic

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ns.

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umn

scal

e (0

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)

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g To

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ntify

, eva

luat

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ompa

re a

vaila

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anal

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tegi

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ools

and

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twar

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Inte

rmed

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sc

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(2m

)

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ew T

ools

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evel

op, t

est,

and

appl

y ne

w th

eorie

s an

d m

etho

dolo

gies

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lect

rical

C

ondu

ctiv

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Trac

er te

st s

cale

(1

-3m

)

•Ex

chan

ge:

Faci

litat

e ex

chan

ge o

f tec

hniq

ues

and

idea

s th

ru t

elec

onfe

renc

es, t

echn

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wor

ksho

ps, p

rofe

ssio

nal

But

ler e

t al

Geo

phys

ics

(2-2

00m

)

4

mee

tings

, int

erac

tion

with

oth

er W

Gs

and

ISC

MEM

Web

site

link

s: h

ttps:

//iem

hub.

org/

grou

ps/is

cmem

. P

lum

e sc

ale

(200

0m)

Mem

bers

and

Par

ticip

ants

from

U.S

. Fed

eral

age

ncie

s,un

iver

sitie

s, a

nd in

dust

ry

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m N

icho

lson

, NR

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hair

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ary

Hill

, US

GS

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akov

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ary

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ou?

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iviti

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essi

ons

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11 F

all A

GU

: Mar

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ill, W

G2

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ensi

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lysi

s in

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tegr

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licat

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tistic

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athe

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atic

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itute

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M. H

ill c

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tain

ty in

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Nic

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per

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rtici

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nd p

artic

ipat

ed in

tech

nica

l se

ssio

ns. F

ocus

ed o

n ex

posu

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resp

onse

, eco

syst

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impa

cts,

life

cyc

le/c

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enef

it, a

nd in

form

atio

n te

chno

logy

.

6

Act

iviti

es: C

onfe

renc

e S

essi

ons

•20

12 F

all A

GU

: Co-

chai

r Mar

y H

ill o

rgan

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ses

sion

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plex

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yg

py,

Fals

ifiab

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, Tra

nspa

renc

y, a

nd U

ncer

tain

ty in

Env

ironm

enta

l M

odel

ing”

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12 G

eolo

gica

l Soc

iety

of A

mer

ica

Ann

ual M

eetin

g: C

o-C

hair

Tom

Nic

hols

on p

rese

nted

invi

ted

pape

r co-

auth

ored

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M

arH

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Cha

iron

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eral

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kG

rop

onU

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tain

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ary

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ncer

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lysi

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Est

imat

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chni

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roun

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ater

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el C

alib

ratio

n an

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ncer

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naly

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i

db

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YFl

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tt

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orga

nize

d by

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g Y

e, F

lorid

a S

tate

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vers

ity a

nd W

G2

mem

ber.

7

Act

iviti

es: T

elec

onfe

renc

es

We

cond

uct

tele

conf

eren

ces

to:

Trac

er a

pplic

atio

n ar

ea

Obs

erva

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wel

l

We

cond

uct

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conf

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view

and

dis

cuss

ong

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arch

stu

dies

an

d so

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velo

pmen

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form

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atur

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t m

easu

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men

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ould

he

lp

disc

rimin

ate

betw

een

two

mod

els?

mod

els?

from

2/

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012

sem

inar

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min

ar b

y Ya

kov

Pac

heps

ky,

US

DA

, on

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abst

ract

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Act

iviti

es: T

elec

onfe

renc

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We

cond

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conf

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ces

to:

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view

and

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cuss

ong

oing

rese

arch

st

udie

s an

d so

ftwar

e de

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pmen

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form

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epr

opos

als

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ield

appl

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form

ulat

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ield

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licat

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How

doe

s m

oist

ure

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l in

the

atm

osph

ere

and

lead

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ig s

torm

s?

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m 9

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sem

inar

by

Mik

e D

ettin

ger,

US

GS

, on

atm

osph

eric

rive

rs

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inar

s at

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leco

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ence

s in

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ulti

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tain

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ulti-

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le A

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t of P

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n U

ncer

tain

ty in

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oupl

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spor

t Mod

els

by G

ary

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urtis

, U

SG

S; M

ing

Ye,

Flo

rida

Sta

te U

nive

rsity

; Phi

lip D

. Mey

er

and

Ste

ve B

. Yab

usak

i, P

NN

L to

dis

cuss

the

use

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ayes

ian

mod

el a

vera

ging

met

hod

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sses

s pa

ram

etric

an

d m

odel

unc

erta

inty

for i

mpr

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ent o

f pre

dict

ive

yp

ppe

rform

ance

.

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riefin

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rnob

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ond

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omm

issi

onin

g an

d R

emed

iatio

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ropo

sal (

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ase

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dy fo

r Im

prov

ing

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entif

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ironm

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prov

ing

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entif

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asis

for M

ultim

edia

Env

ironm

enta

l M

odel

ing

and

Ris

k A

sses

smen

t) by

Bor

is F

aybi

shen

ko,

Law

renc

e B

erke

ley

Nat

iona

l Lab

orat

ory,

to p

rovi

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rthe

inte

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iona

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ting

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men

ts a

nd q

uest

ions

for t

he in

tern

atio

nal m

eetin

g in

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iev,

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aine

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edia

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iona

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tinue

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nviro

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valu

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d C

hara

cter

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tem

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EE

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ohns

on, M

. D

ortc

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d B

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enko

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ts fr

om

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l as

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ith a

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ater

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•Th

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ow” o

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elin

g: T

owar

d E

nhan

ced

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spar

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and

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utab

ility

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ary

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,to

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spar

ency

and

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utab

ility

by M

ary

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, US

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, to

disc

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ablis

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f mod

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valu

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easu

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edal

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form

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sed

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per

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odel

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o in

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any

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type

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pri

or k

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Vari

ance

of w

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dual

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phs

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odifi

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xplo

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ch p

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owce

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eth

epr

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met

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MA

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ost

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Obs

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e im

port

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e pr

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s? O

PR, C

V•W

hich

mod

els

in M

MA

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like

ly to

pro

duce

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bes

t pr

edic

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s?

For

indi

vidu

al m

odel

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luat

ions

:AIC

, AIC

c, B

IC, K

IC, C

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Com

puta

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ugal

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n 10

s to

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App

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PA

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form

atio

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Rep

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and

Dat

a S

ourc

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http

s://i

emhu

b.or

g/gr

oups

/iscm

em

18