The Adelaide labour market and the impact of the Holden closedown

27 March 2015

Presenter: Ivan Neville

Department of Employment

2 – Labour market overview

Greater Adelaide South AustraliaUnemployment rate 7.2% 6.9%*Employment in Manufacturing 57,800 74,200

10 year change -20% -19%Total employment 623,900 794,600*

10 year change 11%(61,800)

9%*(63,900)

Monthly internet vacancies 5,700 7,100*Annual change 3% 0%

* Seasonally adjusted data

NotesSource: ABS, Labour Force, Australia, Detailed – Electronic Delivery, February 2015 (cat. no. 6291.0.55.001), three-month averages of original data; ABS, Labour Force, Australia, Detailed, Quarterly, February 2015 (cat. no. 6291.0.55.003), four-quarter averages of original data; Department of Employment, Vacancy Report, February 2015. The Greater Adelaide vacancies are three-month averages of original data, while the State figures are seasonally adjusted.

This table presents some key labour market data for Greater Adelaide and South Australia. It is worth noting that employment in Manufacturing has already fallen by about 20 per cent over the last 10 years.

3 – Regional disparity

NotesSource: ABS, Labour Force, Australia, Detailed – Electronic Delivery, February 2015 (cat. no. 6291.0.55.001). Data for Adelaide are three-month averages of original data. Data for ‘Rest of SA’ are 12-month averages of original data, in order to smooth out some of the volatility inherent in regional estimates.

At 8.6 per cent, North Adelaide had the highest rate of unemployment in Greater Adelaide.

4 – Long-term unemployment is an increasing challenge

NotesSource: ABS, Labour Force, Australia, Detailed – Electronic Delivery, February 2015 (cat. no. 6291.0.55.001), 12-month averages of original data (South Australia)

A person is said to be long-term unemployed if they are unemployed for a period of 52 weeks or longer. In South Australia, one out of four unemployed people were long-term unemployed.

Long-term unemployment has doubled in South Australia since the onset of the Global Financial Crisis in September 2008, rising to 14,800 in February 2015. More than a third (2,600) of this increase was accounted for by youth (15-24 year olds).

5 – Many auto workers have successfully moved to a variety of jobs

Between 2006 and 2011, many people who worked in Motor Vehicle and Motor Vehicle Parts Manufacturing successfully moved to a wide range of new jobs across a number of industries and occupations:

Transport and Manufacturing Truck and Bus Drivers Food Manufacturing

Trades Construction Labourers Chefs, Butchers and Bakers Glaziers, Plasterers and Tilers Painters and Carpet Layers

Services Shop Managers Sales Assistants and Salespersons Aged and Disabled Carers Prison Officers and Security Guards Defence Force Emergency Service Workers and Police Officers

Source: ABS, Census of Population and Housing, 2006 & 2011

6 – Retrenched workers are likely to be faced with:

Retrenched workers are likely to be faced with: Lower wages Fewer working hours Working at a different or lower skill level Different workforce composition Working in a smaller organisation

7 – Targeted training is vital

NotesSource: ABS, Census of Population and Housing, 2011

This chart shows that a positive relationship exists between higher levels of educational attainment and better labour market outcomes. In South Australia, 25-34 year olds were less likely to be unemployed if they had completed year 12 schooling or had post-school qualifications (certificate level III or IV and above).

8 – Some people take a long time to find a job

NotesSource: ABS, Labour Force, Australia, Detailed – Electronic Delivery, February 2015 (cat. no. 6291.0.55.001), 12-month averages of original data

This chart shows that older job seekers are more likely to be unemployed for longer periods of time than their younger counterparts. In February 2015, the average duration of unemployment for 25-44 year olds (46 weeks) was considerably lower than for people aged 65 and over (79 weeks).

9 – Many job seekers don’t get an interview

NotesSource: Department of Employment, Survey of Employers’ Recruitment Experiences, All regions surveyed in the 12 months to December 2014

For vacancies advertised online or in a newspaper, employers received an average of 18 applicants, 14 of whom were not interviewed.

10 – Why don’t people get an interview?

NotesSource: Department of Employment, Survey of Employers’ Recruitment Experiences, All regions surveyed in the 12 months to December 2014

The most common reasons employers gave as to why they didn’t interview applicants were that they lacked relevant experience, had insufficient qualifications or training, or submitted a poorly written or presented application.

11 – Retrenched workers need to emphasise what they have

NotesRetrenched workers need to emphasise their:

Experience Qualifications and training Proven track record Job specific skills e.g. lean manufacturing

12 – But they also need to demonstrate these:

NotesRetrenched workers also need to show potential employers:

• Flexibility/adaptability• Enthusiasm/positive attitude• Interpersonal/social skills• Teamwork• Customer services skills• Reliability

13 – 1 in 3 jobs are not advertised

NotesSource: Department of Employment, Survey of Employers’ Recruitment Experiences

About one third of vacancies are not formally advertised. Some employers prefer to use informal methods to recruit staff, such as word of mouth. For this reason, job seekers should use a broad range of search methods including approaching employers directly.

14 – Holden closure will have a negative impact…

NotesIn addition to the direct job losses associated with the Holden closure in Adelaide, there will likely be further job losses throughout the supply chain and others due to the associated fall in consumption.

15 - …but employment still forecast to grow

NotesSource: ABS, Labour Force, Australia, February 2015 (cat. no. 6202.0), trend

Despite the job losses expected from the Holden closure, both the South Australian Treasury and Deloitte Access Economics are projecting modest employment growth over the years ahead. The SA Treasury projected employment growth to be 1 per cent for the 2016-17 and 2017-18 financial years.

16 – What does this mean for you?

Expect a steady inflow of new customers Holden and supply chain workers

o Many will be mature ageo Career change necessary

Other industries/business will be impacted Young job seekers

o Will be competing with experienced Holden workerso Graduate outcomes at lowest level on record

Inroads into long-term unemployment unlikely in the medium-term Competitive jobs market Long-term unemployment rising

But there will still be many job opportunities Overall employment growth forecast to improve

o Growth industries (e.g. Health Care and Social Assistance)o Matching workers with vacancies an ongoing challenge

17 - End