.2 9 e L .2 % PLOW 2/25/18 PM 0.55 140 ETSY 2/25/18 PM 0 ...

Time Event Estimate Date Act.vs. Est. S&P

8:30 Chicago Fed NAI 0.22 1/28 0.00 -0.78

10:00 Wholesale Inventories 0.3 2/1 -0.2 0.09

10:30 Dallas Fed 5.4 1/28 3.7 -0.78

Last Report

Time Event Estimate Date Est Act. Diff. S&P Best Worst

None

8:15 Fed's Bostic Speaks in New York

10:15 Fed's Williams Speaks on Inflation in New York

12:00 Fed's Clarida Speaks in New York

12:30 Fed's Potter Speaks in New York

13:00 Baker Hughes Rig Count

13:30 Fed's Bullard Speaks in New York

13:30 Fed's Harker Speaks in New York

Last Report

Upgrades

Ticker Firm From To

C Jefferies Hold Buy

DBX Merrill Neutral Buy

DLPH Deutsche Hold Buy

INTC M Stanley Mkt Wgt Overwgt

POOL Baird Neutral Outperf

SO Evercore Underperf Inline

Downgrades

Ticker Firm From To

FIT Wedbush Outperf Neutral

KHC JP Morgan Overwgt Neutral

KHC Stifel Buy Hold

ROKU Wedbush Outperf Neutral

TNK JP Morgan Neutral Underwgt

XNCR Nomura Neutral Reduce

Initiations/Reiterations

Ticker Firm Action Rating

AIN Baird Initiated Outperf

GWPH Guggenheim Initiated Buy

LSCC Cowen Initiated Outperf

MGLN Merrill Initiated Buy

MRK Cantor Initiated Overwgt

WAB Jefferies Initiated Hold

- Trump to Meet With Chinese Premier Lui Today.i -0.2 %

h 1.9

h 0.5

h 0.6

Oil 57.78 h $0.8

Gold 1325.2 i -$2.6

$/Euro 0.883 h 0.00

$/Yen 110.88 h 0.2

10-Yr 2.68 i -0.01

Japan

China

Germany

UK

Trading Up ($):

TTD (21.51), W (21.22), AMZN (5.76), ROKU (3.21), BA (2.42), NFLX (2.1)

Trading Down ($):

STMP (-101), KHC (-11.28), BJRI (-4.97), LRCX (-3.22), BEAT (-3.05), AN (-2.38)-0.30

-0.20

-0.10

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

16:00 18:00 20:00 22:00 0:00 2:00 4:00 6:00

Pe

rce

nt

Ch

ange

Asia Opens

Europe Opens

Today’s Events

Stock Specific News of Note

Noteworthy Macro EventsOther MarketsOvernight Trading

Tomorrow

Overnight Trading

Analyst Actions

Indicators/EventsMarket Timing Model

© Copyright 2019, Bespoke Investment Group, LLC. The information herein was obtained fromsources which Bespoke Investment Group, LLC believes to be reliable, but we do not guarantee itsaccuracy. Neither the information, nor any opinions expressed, constitute a solicitation of thepurchase or sale of any securities or related instruments. Bespoke Investment Group, LLC is notresponsible for any losses incurred from any use of this information.

Earnings Reports

Ticker Date TOD EPS Revs.

CRI 2/25/18 AM 2.56 1075

TEN 2/25/18 AM 1.43 4270

ALSN 2/25/18 PM 1.20 632

DPLO 2/25/18 PM 0.24 1407

PLOW 2/25/18 PM 0.55 140

ETSY 2/25/18 PM 0.28 195

JBT 2/25/18 PM 1.38 537

KBR 2/25/18 PM 0.38 1243

MOS 2/25/18 PM 0.57 2364

OKE 2/25/18 PM 0.74 3312

RCII 2/25/18 PM 0.20 655

SHAK 2/25/18 PM 0.03 119

THC 2/25/18 PM 0.29 4505

TEX 2/25/18 PM 0.47 1201

Estimate

BMO Metals and Mining Conference

GSMA Mobile World Conference

JP Morgan Global High Yield Conference

M Stanley TMT Conference

Conferences & Meetings

Economic Indicators & Events

Dividends & Splits

NoneIndex Changes

JNJ 0.90

BespokePremium.com

For Personal Use Only—Do Not Forward1

Ticker News

AL Beat EPS forecasts by 22 cents (01.65 vs 1.43) on weaker revenues.

AN Missed EPS forecasts by 6 cents (1.10 vs 1.16) on weaker revenues; announces restructuring.

BIDU Beat EPS forecasts by 11 cents (1.92 vs 1.81) on stronger revenues; guided inline.

CENX Beat EPS forecasts by 10 cents (-0.43 vs -0.53) on weaker revenues.

DBX Beat EPS forecasts by 2 cents (0.10 vs 0.08) on stronger revenues; lowered margin guidance.

ED Beat EPS forecasts by 2 cents (0.77 vs 0.75) on stronger revenues; raised guidance.

EXAS Beat EPS forecasts by 5 cents (-0.44 vs -0.49) on inline revenues; raised guidance.

FLR Beat EPS forecasts by 16 cents (0.77 vs 0.61) on weaker revenues; lowered guidance.

FSLR Missed EPS forecasts by 15 cents (0.49 vs 0.64) on weaker revenues; guided inline.

HPE Beat EPS forecasts by 7 cents (0.42 vs 0.35) on weaker revenues; guided inline.

INTU Beat EPS forecasts by 14 cents (1.00 vs 0.86) on stronger revenues; guidance mixed.

ITT Beat EPS forecasts by 8 cents (0.82 vs 0.74) on weaker revenues; lowered guidance.

KEYS Beat EPS forecasts by 13 cents (0.93 vs 0.80) on stronger revenues; raised guidance.

KHC Missed EPS by 10 cents (0.84 vs 0.94) on inline sales; discloses SEC subpoena; cut dividend.

NEM Globe and Mail reports that Barrick is considering a hostile takeover of company.

ROKU Beat EPS forecasts by 1 cent (0.05 vs 0.04) on stronger revenues; raised guidance.

STMP Beat EPS forecasts by 83 cents (3.73 vs 2.90) on stronger revenues; lowered guidance.

TTD Beat EPS forecasts by 30 cents (1.09 vs 0.79) on stronger revenues; raised guidance.

W Beat EPS forecasts by 18 cents (-1.12 vs -1.30) on stronger revenues.

ZG Reported stronger than expected revenues and raised sales guidance; Rascoff to step down.

Bearish Bullish

Category One Week Two Weeks One Month

Sentiment 0.07 0.26 0.39

Technicals 0.06 0.22 0.36

Fundamental 0.17 0.24 0.54

Overall 0.09 0.24 0.39

Average (all days) 0.13 0.13 0.13

Expected S&P 500 Return (%)

Neutral

https://www.bespokepremium.com/

-0.15

-0.10

-0.05

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

Feb-18 Apr-18 Jun-18 Aug-18 Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19

Bonds Outperforming Stocks

Stocks Outperforming Bonds

Ticker % Chg. Occ. Chg. Percent Up Chg. Percent Up

DLPH 19.1 1 -4.2 0.0 -10.3 0.0

CECO 17.4 6 5.9 66.7 10.2 66.7

CAR 17.1 5 -0.3 60.0 0.9 80.0

SAM 14.3 2 -1.3 50.0 -3.7 0.0

IRDM

ATNI -20.9 1 7.5 100.0 -1.9 0.0

SPTN -20.7 5 0.6 40.0 5.1 60.0

UNIT -18.6 2 -1.5 0.0 -5.0 0.0

BRS -14.5 17 -3.2 41.2 -10.7 29.4

Average Return (%)

Next Day Next Week

Index/Sector Current 1 Wk Ago

S&P 500 OB OB

Cons Discret. OB OB

Cons Staples OB OB

Energy OB OB

Financials OB OB

Health Care OB N

Industrials OB OB

Materials OB OB

Technology OB OB

Comm. Svcs OB OB

Utilities OB OB

OS N OB

S&P 500 50-Day Moving Average Spread S&P 500 Internals Yesterday’s Movers

Relative Strength of Stocks versus Bonds

S&P 500 Overbought and Oversold Stocks (Percentage) Trading Ranges: Sectors

Trading Ranges: Bonds/Commodities

S&P 500 Overbought Stocks Most Likely to Fall

S&P 500 Oversold Stocks Most Likely to Rise


Extreme Overbought

Overbought

Oversold

Extreme Oversold

3.2

72.40

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90


Green indicates percentage of oversold stocks, and red indicates percentage of overbought stocks.

Commodity Current 1 Wk Ago

$/Euro N OB

$/Yen N N

2-Year N N

10-Year N N

Gold OB OB

Silver N N

Copper OB N

Crude Oil OB N

Heating Oil OB OB

Gasoline OB OB

Natural Gas N OS

OS N OB

Indicator Change50-Day Moving Avg Spread h 5.8 % 5.2 %10-Day A/D Line i 898 1068# of Overbought Stocks h 362 323# of Oversold Stocks h 16 12

P/E Ratio Trailing h 18.40 18.20 Forward h 16.65 16.38

Dividend Yield i 1.97 % 1.99 %

Net Earnings Revisions i -32.1 % -27.1 %

Credit Spreads (bps)High Yield i 408 412Corporate Bonds 0 132 132

Current One Week Ago


BespokePremium.com


Ticker Price

ALXN 127.55 1.39 -1.71 35.3

ANET 270.50 2.70 -0.75 38.6

IPG 23.41 1.38 -0.61 42.4

DISH 31.31 1.01 -0.51 43.8

INCY 83.33 1.18 -0.52 49.3

Standard Deviations

Above 50-Day Avg

Avg % Return

(One Week)

Percent of

Time Positive

Ticker Price

CME 176.49 -1.43 0.79 66.7

Standard Deviations

Below 50-Day Avg

Avg % Return

(One Week)

Percent of

Time Positive


Gold Future: Last Six Months

Gold Front Month Future: Last 15 Trading Days

1175

1195

1215

1235

1255

1275

1295

1315

1335

1355

8/21 9/19 10/17 11/14 12/13 1/14 2/12

1175

1195

1215

1235

1255

1275

1295

1315

1335

1355

8/21 9/19 10/17 11/14 12/13 1/14 2/12

1310

1320

1330

1340

1350

1360

1/31 2/4 2/6 2/8 2/12 2/14 2/19 2/21

200-DMA: 1255

50-DMA: 1297

1332

S&P 500: Last Six Months

S&P 500: Last 15 Trading Days

2300

2400

2500

2600

2700

2800

2900

3000

8/20 9/18 10/16 11/13 12/13 1/14 2/12

2300

2400

2500

2600

2700

2800

2900

3000

8/20 9/18 10/16 11/13 12/13 1/14 2/12

2675

2700

2725

2750

2775

2800

1/31 2/4 2/6 2/8 2/12 2/14 2/19 2/21

200-DMA: 2747

50-DMA: 2622

2775

Russell 2000: Last Six Months

Russell 2000: Last 15 Trading Days

1250

1350

1450

1550

1650

1750

8/20 9/18 10/16 11/13 12/13 1/14 2/12

200-DMA: 1588

1480

1500

1520

1540

1560

1580

1600

1/31 2/4 2/6 2/8 2/12 2/14 2/19 2/21

50-DMA: 1447

1576

Nasdaq Composite: Last Six Months

Nasdaq Composite: Last 15 Trading Days

6150

6450

6750

7050

7350

7650

7950

8250

8/20 9/18 10/16 11/13 12/13 1/14 2/12

6100

6400

6700

7000

7300

7600

7900

8200

8/20 9/18 10/16 11/13 12/13 1/14 2/12

50-DMA: 7015

200-DMA: 7471

7150

7250

7350

7450

7550

1/31 2/4 2/6 2/8 2/12 2/14 2/19 2/21

7460

Oil Future: Last Six Months

Oil Future: Last 15 Trading Days

8/21 9/19 10/17 11/14 12/13 1/14 2/12

41.5

45.5

49.5

53.5

57.5

61.5

65.5

69.5

73.5

77.5

8/21 9/19 10/17 11/14 12/13 1/14 2/12

200-DMA: 63

51.0

52.0

53.0

54.0

55.0

56.0

57.0

58.0

1/31 2/4 2/6 2/8 2/12 2/14 2/19 2/21

50-DMA: 51

57

BBG US Dollar Index: Last Six Months

BBG US Dollar Index: Last 15 Trading Days

1150

1160

1170

1180

1190

1200

1210

1220

8/29 9/26 10/24 11/21 12/19 1/16 2/13

1150

1160

1170

1180

1190

1200

1210

1220

8/29 9/26 10/24 11/21 12/19 1/16 2/13

50-DMA: 1193

200-DMA: 1188

1176

1180

1184

1188

1192

1196

1200

1204

2/1 2/5 2/7 2/11 2/13 2/15 2/19 2/21

1193


BespokePremium.com


DJ Transports: Last Six Months

DJ Transports: Last 15 Trading Days

8400

8900

9400

9900

10400

10900

11400

11900

8/20 9/18 10/16 11/13 12/13 1/14 2/12

8400

8900

9400

9900

10400

10900

11400

11900

8/20 9/18 10/16 11/13 12/13 1/14 2/12

200-DMA: 10564

9850

9950

10050

10150

10250

10350

10450

10550

10650

10750

1/31 2/4 2/6 2/8 2/12 2/14 2/19 2/21

50-DMA: 9760

10632

Long Bond Future: Last Six Months

Long Bond Future Intraday: Last 15 Trading Days

134

136

138

140

142

144

146

148

150

8/23 9/21 10/19 11/16 12/18 1/17 2/15

134

136

138

140

142

144

146

148

150

8/23 9/21 10/19 11/16 12/18 1/17 2/15

200-DMA: 142

144.8

145.3

145.8

146.3

146.8

147.3

1/31 2/4 2/6 2/8 2/12 2/14 2/19 2/21

50-DMA: 146

146


For Personal Use Only—Do Not Forward

BespokePremium.com © Copyright 2019, Bespoke Investment Group, LLC. The information herein was obtained from

sources which Bespoke Investment Group, LLC believes to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its

accuracy. Neither the information, nor any opinions expressed, constitute a solicitation of the

purchase or sale of any securities or related instruments. Bespoke Investment Group, LLC is not

responsible for any losses incurred from any use of this information.

4

Overview: Some mixed economic news in Europe and a huge negative surprise for one of the largest

consumer staples names (more on both later) isn’t hurting the market much with the S&P 500 set to

open almost 40 bps higher after a very strong night for metals prices and Chinese equities. US interest

rates are down, the dollar is flat, and energy commodities are ripping with WTI +130 bps.

Economic data is extremely light in the US today, but it will still be a very busy day of headlines. With

the Fed openly discussing what to do about its balance sheet’s optimal “steady state” size, the New

York and Atlanta Fed branches are sponsoring a joint research day with the subject “Quantitative Tools

for Monitoring Macroeconomic and Financial Conditions” (agenda link). In other words, be prepared

for a deluge of headlines related to the balance sheet as nine FOMC members muse out loud about it

over the course of the US trading day. Economic scorecard.

APAC Markets: It was another good night for Chinese A-shares investors with the CSI 300 up 2.25% to

its highest levels since July. The breakout is seeing an explosion of volume with the last three days

showing higher volumes than all but one session of the past year for the large cap on-shore stocks.

Elsewhere, the rest of the region was less optimistic with Japan, Singapore, Malaysia, and Indonesia all

down. Local currencies were broadly stronger versus the dollar, led by a 0.5% gain in Aussie dollar.

China Inflows: Overnight, the PBoC released FX settlement numbers for January. Over the last couple

of months we have seen a rapid shift in capital flows for China; after deteriorating throughout 2018,

capital is now storming back onshore, driven in part by hopes that the current credit stimulus being

undertaken will kick-start activity. Below we show three measures of capital flows: the change in FX

reserves managed by the PBoC over the last three months, the net FX settlement conducted by banks

on behalf of clients each month, and the “hot money” capital flow which strips out FDI from foreign

inflows to show how much capital moving in is liable to flow right back out. As shown, the hot money

measure (components are released at a lag) has likely picked up as investors have gotten more bullish

on China. One need only look at the CSI 300 chart to see the effects of this inflow on confidence.

Morning Commentary

Capital Inflows To China Are Starting To Ramp Up Significantly (USD bn)

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

300 3m FXReserveChange(Left)

Hot MoneyCapital Flow(Right)

China NetFXSettlementof CNY -Client Sales(Right)

https://www.bespokepremium.com

https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/conference/2019/quantitative-tools-monitoring_agenda.pdf?la=en

https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive-dev/economic-monitors/eco-global







5

China Property Prices: Credit stimulus is largely playing out in property markets, with more evidence

coming in last night’s property price release in Beijing. In January, the seasonally-adjusted growth of

medium and long-term consumer loans was more than $2.5trn USD at annualized rates. That sort of

uptick in credit provision is one reason home prices have risen faster than interest rates alone might

have predicted (as shown in the charts below). As shown in the heatmaps on the next two pages, Chi-

nese home prices continue to broadly run at a very solid high-single digit rate for existing homes and

low double-digit rate for new homes.

Morning Commentary

Home Prices Accelerate Ahead of Schedule As Rates Fall

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

102.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

10y Bond Yield (%, Left,Inverted, Adv 12m)Existing Home Prices YoY(%, Right)

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

122.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

10y Bond Yield (%, Left,Inverted, Adv 12m)New Home Prices YoY(Right)








6

Morning Commentary

1/31/2011 1/31/2019

China Top 70 Cities Property Prices YoY (Newly Built)

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

Average YoY % Change








7

Morning Commentary

3/31/2009 1/31/2019

China Top 70 Cities Property Prices YoY (Existing)

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

Average YoY % Change








8

German Data: It was a big day for German

data releases with both the “soft” IFO and

“hard” revised Q4 GDP numbers. On the

subject of IFO, the February print missed

across the board, and the index continues to

decelerate; as shown in the chart at right,

the current Q1 average for IFO would be

consistent with a YoY GDP print in negative

territory for Q2 of 2019.

Regular readers will recall that we are opti-

mistic about the outlook for autos and

therefore the entire backdrop in Germany,

and the IFO numbers don’t support that

narrative at all. If you want to believe the

hard data is wrong in Germany, the revised

GDP numbers give room to do that.

As shown in the chart at right, Q4 saw fixed

investment pick up to 5.1% real annualized

growth, while private consumption ticked

up to +2.6% real annualized. Those are

pretty impressive numbers! Imports grew

about 100 bps faster than exports in Q4, so

it makes sense that GDP (+0.9% QoQ SAAR)

would be weaker than the consumption and

investment numbers, but the domestic GDP

number was sharply lower than Q3’s 3.6%

QoQ SAAR growth. What’s more, nominal

inventories and real government spending

were both up. We are deeply skeptical that

these numbers are correct, though the

question of whether headline GDP/

domestic GDP numbers (weak) or the un-

derlying expenditure categories (very

strong) are wrong is one we can’t answer at

this time.

Switzerland: Turning to the Swiss, today output numbers for Q4 showed manufacturing recovering

from the excessive deceleration in Q3, with Q4 YoY numbers about what you would expect given Swiss

PMI. Other parts of the Swiss economy look pretty weak, but the manufacturing sector is in reasonably

good shape for the moment (relative to regional peers and despite deteriorating PMI).

Morning Commentary

Germany IFO For January & February Suggests No Improvement

German GDP Internals Non-Sensical (Chained Prices QoQ SAAR)

Swiss Output Impressive In Q4, But Looks Unlikely To Repeat

-9

-6

-3

0

3

6

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

IFO Expectations (OldMethod), Q Avg, Advanced 1Q

Germany GDP YoY

-9

-6

-3

0

3

6

9

12

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

Swiss PMI Output (Q Avg)

Swiss Manufacturing Production YoY

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

Consumption

Fixed Investment

Domestic Economy

GDP








9

Europe Data: Eurozone HICPs were on-expectations today, so we won’t spend any more time on them

than necessary; core and headline inflation remains relatively weak but not dramatically so.

Europe Earnings: It’s a relatively quiet day, with Switzerland’s Sika the largest reporting market cap at

16bn EUR. The construction materials firm guided to further acquisitions in 2019, re-affirmed its sales

forecast, and generally saw a positive backdrop. French Sopra Steria is up 15.5% on a huge net income

miss but improved margins that analysts focused on. On the other side of that coin, Swedish medical

equipment maker Elekta is down the most since early 2016 on its report that saw strong sales but a

weak margin result and reduced forecasts for the margin outlook.

Europe Markets: European equities have rallied throughout the session and are near session highs as-

of this writing with all major indices in the green. Breadth is weak at the sector level but more than 2:1

green at the single-stock level with leadership found in Resources. That group is up almost 2%, while

Tech is also up 1%. As shown below, since double-bottoming last December/January the mining sector

has ripped. Today’s rally is being fueled by further big gains for copper (8 month highs) and iron ore (up

4% from open to close today in Singapore).

Morning Commentary

Stoxx 600: Quick Breather, And Back Above The 200-Day

Stoxx 600 Basic Resources: Mining On A Tear

320

330

340

350

360

370

380

390

400

50-DMA

200-DMA

320

330

340

350

360

370

380

390

400

370

390

410

430

450

470

490

510

530

50-DMA

200-DMA

370

390

410

430

450

470

490

510

530








10

US Earnings: It’s not often you see $15.4bn evaporate overnight but today Kraft Heinz has written

down the value of some of its brands (goodwill on the balance sheet) by that amount. The stock is

down 24% pre-market, which would mean a market cap decline of about $14bn. Ironically, the good-

will valuation may drive the company’s price-to-book valuation up! Economic scorecard. Interactive

Earnings Calendar.

Morning Commentary

Asset Level Change 5d Chg 3m Chart Asset Level Change 5d Chg 3m Chart

S&P 500 2785.50 40.6 27.9 Gold 1324.80 -22.6 -1.5

Russell 1582.10 29.2 63.0 Silver 15.89 -10.1 22.1

VIX Fut 15.63 -154.3 -440.4 WTI 57.73 135.2 272.2

TSX 955.80 18.9 136.8 Copper 294.35 155.3 439.8

2 Year 251.83 -1.0 0.4 Nikkei 21425.51 -18.0 251.1

5 Year 250.15 -1.2 0.8 CSI 300 3520.12 224.9 543.4

10 Year 267.70 -1.4 1.4 ASX 200 6167.31 45.7 166.8

30 Year 303.51 -1.4 4.2 Stoxx 600 371.71 35.1 75.1

2s10s 15.67 -0.4 1.4 BBG USD 1193.84 9.5 -10.0

5s30s 53.19 -0.3 3.3 EURUSD 1.1326 -8.8 26.6

5 Yr BE 183.77 1.1 182.0 USDJPY 110.84 12.6 33.5

10 Yr BE 191.84 0.5 190.0 EM FX 63.60 14.6 27.6

Mar '19 97.40 0.0 3.5 CDX IG 61.86 0.0 -0.7

Jun '19 97.39 0.0 2.5 iTraxx IG 65.89 0.0 -3.4

Sep '19 97.39 0.0 3.0 CDX HY 347.76 0.0 4.3

Dec '19 97.35 0.0 2.5 iTraxx HY 289.88 0.0 -12.1

Euro

do

llar

s

Cre

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Major Asset Class Dashboard

Equ

ity

Futs

Co

mm

od

ity

Trsy

Yie

lds

Int'

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Cu

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s/B

E

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https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive-dev/economic-monitors/eco-global

https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive-earnings-calendar/

https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive-earnings-calendar/

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