“Probability” and “Odds”

Probability: is the chance of doing something out of the total possible.

Let’s check an

example….

• TROG likes to roll caveman dice.

• What is the Probability of Trog rolling a “2” ?

Remember: Probability is the chance of doing something out of the TOTAL POSSIBLE.

1 chance

6 Possible Outcomes

• The probability of Trog rolling a “2” on the dice is:

16

What percent is that?

1 ÷ 6 = = .166666666666666666

…around 16-17%

• What is the probability of Trog rolling an even number?

3 chances6 total possible outcomes

• The probability of Trog rolling an even number is:

36

= 12

What is the percent? (you should know this one by heart!!)

50%

• The FANCY MATH WAY to write probability of something is like this:

P(something)

What is the probability of getting “heads” when you flip a coin?

Instead of writing “What is the probability…”

You can use the You can use the FANCY MATH FANCY MATH WAY :WAY :

P(heads) = 12

= 50%

That is Probability…..

…what about “ODDS” ?

NEWS FLASH!“ODDS” and “PROBABILITY”

are

NOT THE SAME ! ! ! ! !

• Odds and Probability are NOT THE SAME!!!!!

“Probability” is : Total ChancesTotal Possible

“Odds” is : Total ChancesWhat’s left over

What are the Odds of Trog rolling an even number?

3 chances3 left over

• The Odds of Trog rolling an even number are:

33

= 11

Odds are usually written like this 1 : 1

• What are the ODDS that Trog rolls a “3” ?

15

= 1:5

• What are the odds against rolling a “4”?

51 5:1

Putting it together.

• The weather station says there is a 40% probability of rain tomorrow. What are the odds that it will rain?

• Remember ODDS compares the chance of something happening vs. something not happening!!!

40%Chance of rain happening:

Chance of rain NOT happening.(The leftovers)

60%46

23

2 : 3 are the odds that it will rain.

= =