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IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES. INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS, ARE PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS REPORT.

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REGIONAL

MALAYSIA

SINGAPORE

INDONESIA

THAILAND

PHILIPPINESCHINA, HONG KONG

ECONOMIC UPDATE

1Q12 GDP Hurdles along thewayDomestic demand continues to keep the economy afloat, helping tobuffer the weak export engine. Real GDP expanded 4.7% yoy in 1Q12with still-respectable consumer spending carrying the growth baton.We keep our 3.8% growth estimate this year for now given 1) renewedeurozone debt fears, and 2) weak high frequency data for the US andChina. If conditions in the eurozone deteriorate more rapidly thanexpected, there could be sharper declines in global asset markets andrisk appetite. The spillover would dampen domestic consumer andbusiness sentiments.

Growth slows but still respectable in 1Q12Backed by improved global economic prospects in 1Q12 before tensions in theeuro area coming to fore, the Malaysian economy posted decent GDP growth of4.7% yoy in 1Q12 (5.2% in 4Q11), although this marks two consecutive quartersof easing. 1Q12 GDP growth was in line with our projection of 4.5% but aboveconsensus forecast (4.3%). Malaysias 1Q12 GDP growth outperformed

Thailand (0.3%), South Korea (2.8%) and Singapore (1.6%) but was loweragainst China (8.1%) and Indonesia (6.3%).

anchored by domestic demandWith net trade taking a back seat, the overall growth was powered by domesticdemand growth (9.6%), which added 7.9% pts to 1Q12 GDP growth (+9.1% ptsin 4Q11). Consumer demand received a boost from generous cash handouts and7-13% pay rise for 1.4m civil servants although spending on big ticket items wasrestrained by the prudent lending guideline. Total investment growth surged16.1% (8.4% in 4Q11) on acceleration in private and public investments.

Shaky external conditions cloud 2H12 outlookWhile domestic drivers continue to steady the ship, we remain wary about the

vulnerable global economy given the high degree of uncertainty about how theeuro area crisis will play out. If conditions in the eurozone deteriorate morerapidly than expected, the spillover would dampen domestic consumer andbusiness sentiments. As such, we are keeping our GDP growth estimate of 3.8%this year for now, allowing us to assess the still-shaky external conditions.

Figure 1: Snapshot of economic indicators

2011 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12

Real GDP growth 5.1 5.1 4.3 5.7 5.2 4.7

Domestic demand 8.2 8.2 5.4 8.7 10.4 9.6

Net trade -7.4 -27.4 8.7 10.5 -10.5 -20.8

Government revenue 16.1 38.4 18.3 12.1 4.0 20.4

Government operating expenditure 20.4 21.2 9.5 26.6 23.6 18.0

Government development expenditure -12.1 -12.0 -31.3 0.3 -8.4 32.3

Fiscal balance (% of GDP) -4.8 -2.5 0.4 -5.7 -11.1 -2.6

--------------- % yoy (otherw ise stated) -------------------

SOURCES: BNM, DEPARTMENT OF STATISTICS (DOS), CIMB RESEARCH

CIMB Analyst

Lee Heng GuieT (60) 3 20849667E hengguie.lee@cimb.com

At this point in time, wedo no see a need to revise

2012 GDP growth forecastbecause that 4-5% ismainly driven by domesticdemand. We already

priced in the prospects ofsignificantly lower export

growth. Tan Sri Dr Zeti Akhtar Aziz,

Governor of BNM

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GDP growth slows further to 4.7% yoy in 1Q12In tandem with slowing growth momentum in regional economies, Malaysiasreal GDP growth eased for the second consecutive quarter to 4.7% yoy in 1Q12

(5.2% in 4Q11). This was in line with our projection (4.5%) but above marketconsensus (4.3%). On a qoq basis, real GDP growth declined 3.2% (+1.8% in4Q11). There were revisions made to past data series, reflecting the change inthe base year from 2000 to 2005.

Figure 2: Real GDP grew 4.7% yoy in 1Q12 Figure 3: Most regional countries posted slower growth in 1Q12

1

2

3

4

5

6

-8

-4

0

4

8

12

1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12

% yoy% pt co ntribution

Domestic demand Net exports

Changes in stocks GDP growth (RHS)

-16

-8

0

8

16

24

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

1Q03 1Q04 1Q05 1Q06 1Q07 1Q08 1Q09 1Q10 1Q11 1Q12

% yoy% yoy

Korea Indonesia Thailand

Singapore (RHS) China (RHS)

SOURCES: BNM, DOS, CIMB RESEARCH SOURCES: DOS, BLOOMBERG, CEIC, CIMB RESEARCH

Domestic drivers steady the ship

Domestic demand has generally remained steady, growing at a faster pace of9.6% in 1Q12 (10.4% in 4Q11), which buffered against the impact of theweakening external environment. In total, total domestic demand, excludingstocks, added 7.9% pts to 1Q12 GDP growth (+9.1% pts to 4Q11 GDP growth).

Figure 4: Real GDP by demand-side components

% pt contr.* % of GDP

2011 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 1Q12 1Q12

Real GDP 5.1 5.1 4.3 5.7 5.2 4.7 4.7 100.0

Priv. consumption 7.1 6.9 6.6 7.6 7.3 7.4 3.7 50.8

Public consumption 16.1 11.1 6.0 21.1 22.9 5.9 0.6 11.1

Investment 6.5 9.8 2.7 5.4 8.4 16.1 3.6 25.0

Exports 4.2 1.9 4.6 4.8 5.5 2.8 2.8 99.0

Imports 6.2 9.3 4.0 3.9 7.8 6.8 5.9 87.9

---------------------- % yoy ----------------------

* Change in stocks deducted 0.25% pts from 1Q12s GDP growth.

SOURCES: BNM, DOS, CIMB RESEARCH

Consumer spending rose 7.4% in 1Q12 (7.3% in 4Q11), benefitting from robustemployment growth and steady income expansion in addition to the boost fromcash handouts of RM500 to each household earning RM3,000 and below. As at17 Apr, a total of RM2.1bn was disbursed to 4.3m households. Privateconsumption indicators showed a mixed trend, especially the purchase of bigticket items (i.e. cars), which was somewhat restrained by Bank NegaraMalaysias net income rule for the computation of debt service ratios for allhousehold loan applications. We expect private consumption to advance

6.0-6.5% this year.

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Figure 5: Improved business and consumer sentiments Figure 6: Positive employment prospects

40

60

80

100

120

140

1Q00 2Q01 3Q02 4Q03 1Q05 2Q06 3Q07 4Q08 1Q10 2Q11

Index

MIER consumer sentiment MIER business conditions

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

0

2

4

6

8

10

Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12

%Person (th)

Total retrenchments Unemployment rate

SOURCES: CEIC SOURCES: CEIC

Growth in total investment also surged strongly by 16.1% (8.4% in 4Q11), largelyfuelled by a 19.8% growth in private investment (a share of 63.9% of totalinvestment) and a 10.3% growth in public investment. The surprisingly strongprivate investment was supported by large capital spending in the oil and gas aswell as manufacturing sectors. Private investment indicators point to acontinued expansion of private capital spending: 1) Capacity utilisationremained high at 80% in 1Q12 while capital goods imports, mainly machineryand equipment, rose 21% in 1Q12; 2) Approved manufacturing investmentprojects grew 11.6% yoy to RM15.1bn in 1Q12; 3) FDI into Malaysia was higherat RM7.5bn in 1Q12 (RM6.5bn in 4Q11), reflecting continued investment in themanufacturing, services and oil and gas industries. While the improved businessclimate, brought about by the Economic Transformation Programme, wouldspur investment and business activity over the medium term, the shaky externalenvironment would act as a dampener on investor sentiment. On publicinvestment, there was higher federal governments capital spending on thepublic utilities and trade and industry, as well as capital spending by thenon-financial public enterprises in the transportation and mining sectors.

Figure 7: Private consumption indicators Figure 8: Private investment indicators

0

4

8

12

16

20

24

28

-45

-30

-15

0

15

30

45

60

Jan-01 May-02 Sep-03 Jan-05 May-06 Sep-07 Jan-09 May-10 Sep-11

% yoy% yoy

Imports of consumption goods Sales of passenger cars

Con sumption credit (RHS)

0

3

6

9

12

15

18

-45

-30

-15

0

15

30

45

Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12

% yoy% yoy

Commercial vehicle sales Imports of capital goods

Busines s loans (RHS)*

SOURCES: DOS, CEIC, CIMB RESEARCH *Business loan growth differs from Bank Negara Malaysia as it derived from total

loans minus household loans and others.

SOURCES: DOS, CEIC, CIMB RESEARCH

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Figure 9: Overall capacity utilization rate in the manufacturingsector

Figure 10: Higher net FDI of RM7.5bn in 1Q12

50

60

70

80

90

1Q00 1Q01 1Q02 1Q03 1Q04 1Q05 1Q06 1Q07 1Q08 1Q09 1Q10 1Q11 1Q12

%

Capacity utilization rate (CUR) CUR: export-oriented

CUR: domes tic-oriented

-3

0

3

6

9

12

15

18

1Q04 4Q04 3Q05 2Q06 1Q07 4Q07 3Q08 2Q09 1Q10 4Q10 3Q11

RM bn

Foeri gn direct investment into Malaysia SOURCES: BNM, CIMB RESEARCH SOURCES: DOS, BNM, CIMB RESEARCH

Net trade takes a back seatWeak exports are taking its toll on overall GDP growth as net trade subtracted3% pts from 1Q12 GDP growth (-1.3% pts in 4Q11). Real exports of goods andservices growth slowed to 2.8% (5.5% in 4Q11), relative to import expansion of6.8% in 1Q12 (7.8% in 4Q11). High-frequency indicators such as global andregional PMIs as well as global semiconductor sales rose at an uneven pace inrecent months, suggesting that Malaysias export growth for this year is stillunder threat. In Mar, Malaysias exports to the EU plunged 16.2%, indicating

that the euro area is still struggling under the weight of the double whammy ofdebt crisis and fiscal austerity.

Most sectors registered slower growthExpansion in the services sector slowed to 5% in 1Q12 (6.6% in 4Q11),reflecting easing growth momentum in some sectors, including wholesale andretail trade (6.4% vs. 6.8% in 4Q11), finance and insurance (2% vs. 7.1% in 4Q11),transport and storage (5.9% vs. 6% in 4Q11), accommodation and restaurant(6.1% vs. 6.3% in 4Q11). Higher growth was recorded in the communication(9.4% vs. 8.8% in 4Q11) as well as real estate and business services (6.9% vs4.4% in 4Q11).

The manufacturing sector paced slower to 4.2% growth (5.2% in 4Q11),mainly dragged by modest growth in the export-oriented industries (2.7% vs

2.9% in 4Q11). Growth in the production of domestic-oriented industriesremained steady at 9.8% (12.8% in 4Q11), supported by the construction-relatedmaterials (10.3% vs. 12.3% in 4Q11), transport equipment (7.1% vs. 15.1% in4Q11) and food, beverage and tobacco products (9.7% vs 9.8% in 4Q11).

Growth of the agriculture sector slowed to 2.1% from 6.9% in 4Q11 due tolower output of palm oil and rubber.

The construction sector recorded a robust growth of 15.5% (7.5% in 4Q11),underpinned by the ongoing implementation of 10MP projects such as the lightrail transit extension. The residential sub-sector rose by 24.1% spurred by thehigh-end residential projects.

The mining sector rose marginally by 0.3% (-3.8% in 4Q11) due to a 1.3%

growth in the production of crude oil while the natural gas output declined by amarginal 0.2%.

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Figure 11: Real GDP by supply-side sectors

% pt contr.* % of GDP

2011 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 1Q12 1Q12

Real GDP 5.1 5.1 4.3 5.7 5.2 4.7 4.7 100.0

Agriculture 5.9 -0.2 7.7 8.8 6.9 2.1 0.1 6.9

Mining -5.7 -3.9 -9.3 -5.9 -3.8 0.3 0.03 9.4

Construction 4.6 5.1 1.8 4.0 7.5 15.5 0.4 3.2

Manufacturing 4.7 5.7 2.6 5.4 5.2 4.2 1.1 25.3

Services 7.0 7.1 7.1 7.1 6.6 5.0 2.7 54.0

---------------------- % yoy ----------------------

*Import duties added 0.28% pt to 1Q12s GDP growth.

SOURCES: BNM, DOS, CIMB RESEARCH

Figure 12: Services sector indicators

2010 2011 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12

Utilities

Electricity Production Index % yoy 8.8 2.0 1.3 4.2 2.3 6.1 3.1 2.7 11.3 4.9Wholesale, Retail Trade, Hotels and Insurance

Consumption credit outstanding % yoy 9.8 9.5 8.7 8.5 9.5 7.8 9.5 8.8 8.2 7.8

Loans to wholesale & retail trade, hotels & restaurants % yoy 7.5 11.5 6.8 9.6 11.5 11.7 11.5 10.1 8.3 11.7

Tourist arrivals Persons m 24.6 24.7 5.8 6.7 6.7 - 2.3 - - -

Tourist arrivals % yoy 3.9 0.6 -4.8 4.7 5.4 - 6.9 - - -

Passenger car sales % yoy 11.8 -1.6 -11.3 0.3 -2.0 -13.8 -13.6 -25.7 6.6 -16.6

Finance, Insurance, Real Estate and Business Services

Loans outstanding in the banking system % yoy 12.7 13.6 13.5 13.8 13.6 12.2 13.6 12.1 11.9 12.2

Loans to real estate % yoy 21.0 31.2 23.8 28.7 31.2 33.6 31.2 32.7 34.0 33.6

Bursa Malaysia turnover (volume) % yoy 2.1 30.0 20.4 8.9 24.5 16.8 44.8 -15.0 41.3 34.0

Transport, Storage and Communication

Total cargo handled at the 5 major ports (tonnes) % yoy 14.9 10.1 8.7 8.6 10.3 - 11.6 8.1 -0.2 -

Airport passenger traffic % yoy 12.7 10.7 13.3 10.8 7.2 6.5 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.

Air cargo handled % yoy 14.2 -2.0 -5.1 -2.9 -0.1 -1.4 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.

SOURCES: DOS, BNM, CEIC, CIMB RESEARCH

Federal governments deficit at 2.6% of GDP in 1Q12The federal governments budget deficit improved to RM5.8bn or 2.6% of GDPin 1Q12, compared to a deficit of RM25.4bn or 11.1% of GDP in 4Q11. This wasmade possible by better revenue collection (+20.4% to RM47.9bn) relative tooperating expenditure growth (+18% to RM45.6bn) and developmentexpenditure (+32.3% to RM8.5bn). Development expenditure was channeledmainly to the trade and industry, and public utilities. For 2012, the budgetdeficit is expected to come down to 4.7% of GDP from revised 4.8% in 2011.

Figure 13: Fiscal deficit at 2.6% of GDP in 1Q12 Figure 14: Revenue vs. expenditure

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

1Q05 4Q05 3Q06 2Q07 1Q08 4Q08 3Q09 2Q10 1Q11 4Q11

% of GDPRM bn

Fiscal balance % of GDP (RHS)

-80

-40

0

40

80

120

160

-30

-15

0

15

30

45

60

1Q 06 4Q06 3Q 07 2Q 08 1Q09 4Q 09 3Q 10 2Q11 1Q12

% yoy% yoy

Revenue Operating expenditre Development expenditure (RHS)

SOURCES: BNM, CIMB RESEARCH SOURCES: BNM, CIMB RESEARCH

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Federal government debt rose to RM470.8bn or 51.3% of GDP in 1Q12(RM456.1bn or 51.8% of GDP in 2011). Domestic debt made up 96.4% of totaldebt to amount RM453.9bn as at end-Mar 2012. Malaysias total outstandingexternal debt stood at RM249.5bn or US$80.5bn or 27.8% of GNI as at end-Mar2012 (RM257.4bn or US$80.4bn or 30% of GNI as at end-Dec 2011).Short-term external debt declined 2.9% to RM100.9bn (RM103.9bn at end-2011)while medium-and-long-term external debt dropped 3.2% to RM148.6bn atend-Mar (RM153.5bn at end-2011).

Figure 15: Public debt stood at RM470.8bn (51.3% of GDP) as atend-Mar 2012

Figure 16: Malaysias external debt declined to RM249.5bn(US$80.5bn) as at end-Mar 2012

10

20

30

40

50

60

0

100

200

300

400

500

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1Q12

% of GDPRM bn

Domestic debt External debt % of GDP (RHS)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

100

125

150

175

200

225

250

275

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1Q12

% of GDPRM bn

External debt % of GDP (RHS)

SOURCES: BNM, CIMB RESEARCH SOURCES: BNM, CIMB RESEARCH

Shaky external conditions cloud 2H12 outlookWhile domestic drivers continue to steady the ship, we remain wary about thevulnerable global economy given the high degree of uncertainty about how theeuro area crisis will play out. If conditions in the eurozone deteriorate morerapidly than expected, there could be sharper declines in global asset marketsand risk appetite. The fallout would dampen domestic consumer and businesssentiments in Malaysia. As such, we are keeping our GDP growth estimate of3.8% this year for now, allowing us to assess the still-shaky external conditions.

Figure 17: The OECD CLIs point to moderate global recovery Figure 18: Still-sluggish global trade and industrial output

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

85

90

95

100

105

Jan-00 May-01 Sep-02 Jan-04 May-05 Sep-06 Jan-08 May-09 Sep-10 Jan-12

% momIndex

% mom (RHS) OECD CLI US Euro area Japan

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

Jan-01 May-02 Sep-03 Jan-05 May-06 Sep-07 Jan-09 May-10 Sep-11

% yoy

Global trade World production index

SOURCES: OECD, CIMB RESEARCH SOURCES: CPB, CIMB RESEARCH

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Figure 19: Export-oriented industries are expected to remainweak

Figure 20: Wholesale and retail sectors are on weak momentum

92

94

96

98

100

102

104

-45

-30

-15

0

15

30

45

Jan-00 May-01 Sep-02 Jan-04 May-05 Sep-06 Jan-08 May-09 Sep-10 J an-12

Index% yoy

Exports Manufac tur ing output OECD CLI ( RHS)

-40

0

40

80

120

160

-15

0

15

30

45

60

1Q 06 4Q06 3Q 07 2Q 08 1Q09 4Q 09 3Q 10 2Q11 1Q12

Index% yoy

Retai l trade index (RHS) Wholesale sales Retai l sales SOURCES: OECD, DOS, CIMB RESEARCH SOURCES: CEIC, CIMB RESEARCH

Figure 21: GDP forecast

2011 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2012E 2011 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2012E 2011 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2012E

Real GDP 5.1 5.1 4.3 5.7 5.2 4.7 3.8 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 5.1 5.1 4.3 5.7 5.2 4.7 3.8

Private consumption 7.1 6.9 6.6 7.6 7.3 7.4 6.3 49.8 49.6 48.9 50.9 49.7 50.8 51.0 3.5 3.4 3.2 3.8 3.6 3.7 3.1

Public consumption 16.1 11.1 6.0 21.1 22.9 5.9 4.1 13.2 11.0 11.4 12.3 18.1 11.1 13.3 1.9 1.2 0.7 2.3 3.5 0.6 0.5

Private investment 12.2 24.9 18.8 19.8

Public investment -0.3 -8.2 1.9 10.3

Exports 4.2 1.9 4.6 4.8 5.5 2.8 3.4 100.6 100.8 101.2 100.4 100.1 99.0 100.2 4.3 1.9 4.6 4.8 5.5 2.8 3.4

Imports 6.2 9.3 4.0 3.9 7.8 6.8 5.9 87.5 86.2 87.6 86.9 89.4 87.9 89.3 5.4 7.7 3.5 3.5 6.8 5.9 5.2

2011 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2012E 2011 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2012E 2011 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2012E

Real GDP 5.1 5.1 4.3 5.7 5.2 4.7 3.8 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 5.1 5.1 4.3 5.7 5.2 4.7 3.8

Agriculture 5.9 -0.2 7.7 8.8 6.9 2.1 2.5 7.7 7.1 7.7 8.4 7.4 6.9 7.6 0.4 0.0 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.2

Mining -5.7 -3.9 -9.3 -5.9 -3.8 0.3 1.0 8.8 9.8 8.5 8.4 8.5 9.4 8.6 -0.6 -0.4 -0.9 -0.6 -0.4 0.03 0.1

Construction 4.6 5.1 1.8 4.0 7.5 15.5 11.4 3.0 2.9 2.9 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.2 0.1 0.1 0.05 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3

Manufacturing 4.7 5.7 2.6 5.4 5.2 4.2 2.5 25.1 25.4 25.3 25.1 24.8 25.3 24.8 1.2 1.4 0.7 1.4 1.3 1.1 0.6

Services 7.0 7.1 7.1 7.1 6.6 5.0 4.8 54.2 53.8 54.1 53.8 55.0 54.0 54.7 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.6 2.7 2.6

Demand side-------------------- % yoy --------------------- ---------------- % share -------------------- ----------------- % pt cont. ------------

2.7 5.4 10.0 23.5 22.5 23.9

Supply side-------------------- % yoy --------------------- ---------------- % share -------------------- ----------------- % pt cont. ------------

23.0 24.5 25.0 24.9 1.5 2.1 0.7 1.2 2.0 3.6 2.3

SOURCES: DOS, BNM, CIMB RESEARCH

BNM will stick to a wait-and-see approachWe believe Bank Negara Malaysia will maintain its accommodative monetarypolicy for an extended period on the back of continued caution on the externalenvironment. The global economy remains highly vulnerable and the euro areadebt crisis could escalate with severe implications for Asia. Malaysias exportsand its domestic economy would be threatened. The domestic stockmarketwould be affected by renewed stress in asset markets and a decline in global riskappetite. As such, we maintain our overnight policy rate target of 3% this year.

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persons who are wholesale clients (within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 (Cwlth)) and is supplied solely for the use of such wholesale clients and shall not be distributed orpassed on to any other person. This research has been prepared without taking into account the objectives, financial situation or needs of the individual recipient.

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Hong Kong: This report is issued and distributed in Hong Kong by CIMB Securities (HK) Limited (CHK) which is licensed in Hong Kong by the Securities and Futures Commission forType 1 (dealing in securities), Type 4 (advising on securities) and Type 6 (advising on corporate finance) activities. Any investors wishing to purchase or otherwise deal in the securitiescovered in this report should contact the Head of Sales at CIMB Securities (HK) Limited. The views and opinions in this research report are our own as of the date hereof and are subjectto change. If the Financial Services and Markets Act of the United Kingdom or the rules of the Financial Services Authority apply to a recipient, our obligations owed to such recipienttherein are unaffected. CHK has no obligation to update its opinion or the information in this research report.

This publication is strictly confidential and is for private circulation only to clients of CHK. This publication is being supplied to you strictly on the basis that it will remain confidential. No partof this material may be (i) copied, photocopied, duplicated, stored or reproduced in any form by any means or (ii) redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other person inwhole or in part, for any purpose without the prior written consent of CHK. Unless permitted to do so by the securities laws of Hong Kong, no person may issue or have in its possession forthe purposes of issue, whether in Hong Kong or elsewhere, any advertisement, invitation or document relating to the securities covered in this report, which is directed at, or the contentsof which are likely to be accessed or read by, the public in Hong Kong (except if permitted to do so under the securities laws of Hong Kong).

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recipient therein are unaffected. CIMBI has no obligation to update its opinion or the information in this research report.This publication is strictly confidential and is for private circulation only to clients of CIMBI. This publication is being supplied to you strictly on the basis that it will remain confidential. Nopart of this material may be (i) copied, photocopied, duplicated, stored or reproduced in any form by any means or (ii) redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other personin whole or in part, for any purpose without the prior written consent of CIMBI. Neither this report nor any copy hereof may be distributed in Indonesia or to any Indonesian citizens whereverthey are domiciled or to Indonesia residents except in compliance with applicable Indonesian capital market laws and regulations.

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This publication is strictly confidential and is for private circulation only to clients of CIMB. This publication is being supplied to you strictly on the basis that it will remain confidential. No partof this material may be (i) copied, photocopied, duplicated, stored or reproduced in any form by any means or (ii) redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other person inwhole or in part, for any purpose without the prior written consent of CIMB.

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the United Kingdom or the rules of the Financial Services Authority apply to a recipient, our obligations owed to such recipient therein are unaffected. CIMBR has no obligation to updateits opinion or the information in this research report.

This publication is strictly confidential and is for private circulation only. If the recipient of this research report is not an accredited investor, expert investor or institutional investor, CIMBRaccepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report without any disclaimer limiting or otherwise curtailing such legal responsibility. This publication is being supplied to you strictly onthe basis that it will remain confidential. No part of this material may be (i) copied, photocopied, duplicated, stored or reproduced in any form by any means or (ii) redistributed or passed on,directly or indirectly, to any other person in whole or in part, for any purpose without the prior written consent of CIMBR.

Sweden: This report contains only marketing information and has not been approved by the Swedish Financial Supervisory Authority. The distribution of this report is not an offer to sell to

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any person in Sweden or a solicitation to any person in Sweden to buy any instruments described herein and may not be forwarded to the public in Sweden.

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Thailand: This report is issued and distributed by CIMB Securities (Thailand) Company Limited (CIMBS). The views and opinions in this research report are our own as of the date hereofand are subject to change. If the Financial Services and Markets Act of the United Kingdom or the rules of the Financial Services Authority apply to a recipient, our obligations owed to suchrecipient therein are unaffected. CIMBS has no obligation to update its opinion or the information in this research report.

This publication is strictly confidential and is for private circulation only to clients of CIMBS. This publication is being supplied to you strictly on the basis that it will remain confidential. Nopart of this material may be (i) copied, photocopied, duplicated, stored or reproduced in any form by any means or (ii) redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other personin whole or in part, for any purpose without the prior written consent of CIMBS.

United Arab Emirates: The distributor of this report has not been approved or licensed by the UAE Central Bank or any other relevant licensing au thorities or governmental agencies in theUnited Arab Emirates. This report is strictly private and confidential and has not been reviewed by, deposited or registered with UAE Central Bank or any other licensing authority orgovernmental agencies in the United Arab Emirates. This report is being issued outside the United Arab Emirates to a limited number of institutional investors and must not be provided toany person other than the original recipient and may not be reproduced or used for any other purpose. Further, the information contained in this report is not intended to lead to the sale ofinvestments under any subscription agreement or the conclusion of any other contract of whatsoever nature within the territory of the United Arab Emirates.

United Kingdom: This report is being distributed by CIMB Securities (UK) Limited only to, and is directed at selected persons on the basis that those persons are (a) persons falling withinArticle 19 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotions) Order 2005 (the Order) who have professional experience in investments of this type or (b) high networth entities, and other persons to whom it may otherwise lawfully be communicated, falling within Article 49(1) of the Order, (all such persons together being referred to as relevantpersons). A high net worth entity includes a body corporate which has (or is a member of a group which has) a called-up share capital or net assets of not less than (a) i f it has (or is asubsidiary of an undertaking which has) more than 20 members, 500,000, (b) otherwise, 5 million, the trustee of a high value trust or an unincorporated association or partnership with

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