1Q16 results - Banpu · 1Q16 results Investor and analyst update 13th May 2016 1. 2 ... Any forward...
Transcript of 1Q16 results - Banpu · 1Q16 results Investor and analyst update 13th May 2016 1. 2 ... Any forward...
1Q16 results
Investor and analyst update
13th May 2016
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DISCLAIMER
The views expressed here contain information derived from publicly available sources that have not been independently verified. No representation or warranty ismade as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information. Any forward looking information in this presentation has been prepared on the basis of anumber of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect. This presentation should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by Banpu Public CompanyLimited. Nothing in this release should be construed as either an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell shares in any jurisdiction.
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Financial summary
Power business
Coal marketing
Coal operations
Focus: shale gas
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3
2
1
5
Looking ahead6
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Chaffee Corners: attractive fundamentals
U.S. NATURAL GAS RESERVES BY SHALE GAS PLAYS (2014)
Unit: Tcf
OTHERS
16 Tcf
85 Tcf
24 Tcf
17 Tcf
12 Tcf
6 Tcf
Ultica
17 Tcf
24 Tcf
Marcellus
CHAFFEE
CORNERS
$112m investment for 29.4% stake in Chaffee Corners, Pennsylvania, USA
Strategic location: Northeast of Marcellus, c.200 miles from NYC
Dry gas unconventional: 156 Bcf* proved (P1) reserves; 173 future wells; 10 TcfOGIP**, average net production, target 2016 c.21mmcfd*
Gas sold via “firm” gas contract for 10 years
Positive cash flows should be self-funding, last twelve months Ebitda of c.$11m*,with low well breakeven gas price
Timing of investment: attractive valuation $0.7/Mcf (1P)
Strong operating partner
* Presented on a ‘net to Banpu’ basis verified by Rose & Associates; ** Original-gas-in-place
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NYCPennsylvania
Chaffee
Corners
• Asset is located in the “Super Core” region of North East Pennsylvania
• Competitive costs relative to other NE Super Core, Marcellus operations
• Producers in the Marcellus field benefit from proximity to the high-demand markets along the East Coast of the United States
• A pure-play investment in a de-risked dry gas resource base with very high recovery rates – in the core of the Northeast Pennsylvania Marcellus Gas Play
Favorable location: Marcellus Supercore
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Source : Sanchez Energy Corporation
Recap : unconventional technology
Reservoirs and conventional versus unconventional
Hydraulic fracturing
involves high pressure injection of fracking fluids, mainly water into
deep-rock formations to
enable gas, trapped in low-
permeably shale to flow more freely
for extraction
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Conventional vs. unconventional life cycle
TYPICAL CONVENTIONAL PRODUCTION PROFILE
Unit: BOPD*TYPICAL UNCONVENTIONAL PRODUCTION PROFILE
Unit: BOPD*
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
1 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91 101 111
PLATEAU
RAMP
SECONDARY
RECOVERY
(e.g. WATERFLOOD)
DECLINEPRIMARY
RECOVERY
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
1 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91 101 111
UNCONVENTIONALCONVENTIONAL
SECONDARY
RECOVERY
DRILLING DEVELOPMENT
TERMINAL DECLINE
(TO ECONOMIC LIFE)
Production month
No
exploration
risks. Wells
performance
converges on
a portfolio
mean
ExplorationProduction monthExploration
High
exploration
risk before
development
• Higher exploration risk up front • Generally no upfront exploration risk (reservoir area already well understood)
• Fewer number of wells required to reach production plateau
• Wells have steep declines therefore require many wells to develop a field
• Primary recovery generally lower costs• Secondary recovery generally higher costs and required
to extend production
• Well costs and productivity generally improve as more wells are drilled due to learning curve and economies of scale
• Field is produced to economic life (where production falls below break-even threshold)
• Production as a shallow long-term (terminal) decline after initial production fall-off
* BOPD stands for barrel of oil per day
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Reserves
TOTAL 1P RESERVES AT CHAFFEE CORNERS
156 Bcf*
67 Bcf(62 Wells)
25 Bcf(14 Wells)
64 Bcf(53 Wells)
PROVED
UNDEVELOPED
RESERVES
(PUD)
PUD are expected
to be extracted
through new wells
on undrilled
acreage, however,
this undrilled
acreage must be
"proved" to a
reasonable extent
PROVED
DEVELOPED
NON-PRODUCING
RESERVES
(PNP)
PNP are expected to
be recovered from
zones behind casing
in existing wells, or
from zones that are
shut-in for market
conditions, pipeline
connections or
mechanical reasons
and are capable of
production, but the
timing is uncertain
PDP are expected to
be extracted through
existing wells and
equipment, and are
actively being
produced
PROVED
DEVELOPED
RESERVES
(PDP)
*Verified by third party Feb 2016: Rose & Associates
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Estimated Ultimate Recovery (EUR)
Source: USGS
Definition: sum of all oil or gas that is forecast to have the potential to be produced up to the termination point
Higher EUR implies higher reserves and higher economics, assume all else equal.
Impact: In the oil and gas industry it is important that drilling projects meet an acceptable estimated EUR threshold for a project to be considered viable and profitable.
Derivation: EUR can be calculated in many differing methods and units depending on the project or study being conducted.
0 24 48 72 96 120 144 168 192 216 240 264 288
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
Daily production (LHS)
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Production month
ILLUSTRATIVE DAILY PRODUCTION AND EUR
BcfMscfd
Accumulated
production (RHS)
EUR
10
Source: John Staub, EIA conference in June 2015
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Barnett Fayetteville Haynesville Marcellus
EUR COMPARISON
Unit: Bcf per well
25th to 75th percentile
Average EUR*
Avg. EUR of Chaffee
Corner’s South wells
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
EVOLUTION OF EUR SINCE 2008
Unit: Bcf per well
Haynesville
Barnett
Fayettevile
Marcellus
EUR increased with improved production techniques; Marcellus, start-up in 2008, shows strongest growth
EURs vary significantly based on reassessed reserves, estimates, and associated recovery factors
Avg. EUR of Chaffee
Corner’s South wells
* Data points in 2014 for Barnett, Fayetteville and Haynesville; 2013 for Marcellus
EURs vary through differing time and locations
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Cost improvement in low gas price
DRILLING AND COMPLETION COSTS
Unit: U$M/well
In lower gas price environment since early 2014, operators have been working on reducing costs. As a result Henry Hub breakeven was down by over $1/Mcf or 20% across sub-plays from 2014 to 2015
6.0
6.2
6.4
6.6
6.8
7.0
7.2
Nort
heas
t PA
Bra
dfo
rd
South
west
ric
h g
as
Centr
al P
A
Susq
uehan
na
core
Ric
h g
as c
ore
2015
2014
AVERAGE OF
CHAFFEE CORNERS
SOUTH WELL
FULL-CYCLE BREAKEVEN (HENRY HUB)
Unit: U$/Mcf
8
6
4
2
0
2014 average
2015 average
Ric
h G
as C
ore
Susq
uehan
na
Core
Bra
dfo
rd A
rea
WV
Ric
h G
as
Gre
ene D
ry G
as
Pitts
burg
h A
rea
Lyc
om
ing
Are
a
WV
Dry
Gas
Alle
gheny
Mounta
ins
Nort
heas
t Pennsy
lvan
ia
South
west
Ric
h G
as
2014
2015
Source: Wood & Mackenzie
ILLUSTRATIVE ONLY
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Gas sale process and off-take
Chaffee Corners JEA
JEA owns all aspects of gas production and distribution to this point− Operator handles all gas marketing on
behalf of JEA− Committed off-take to Banpu's
position is c.15Mmcf/day, from operator, backstopped by a specific gas sales contract on TGP to wholesalers/end-users
Kinder Morgan distributes gas to wholesalers and end-users on its interstate pipeline network− Chaffee Corners uses
Tennessee Gas Pipeline (TGP) to evacuate gas directly out of Chaffee Corners area
− The gas flows through other pipelines to end markets
Silvers gas sales point on TGP leg 300
Wholesalers/End-users
Operator sells gas to a variety of wholesalers and/or end-users. The exact parties are not disclosed to JEA partners.
UPSTREAM
Natural gas
production
at well head
GATHERING
SYSTEM
PIPELINE
TRANSPORT
WHOLESALERS END-USERS
Gas gathering,
processing and
compression
Interstate gas pipeline
transmission (regulated)
• Wholesaler distribution
points
• Storage if required
• Power generation
• Heating (commercial/
residential)
• Export (pipe, LNG)
• Industrial/
petrochemical
GAS MARKETINGNatural gas marketing providers and hedgers matching supply with demand
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Benchmark price and differential
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
2012 2017 2022 2027 2032
HENRY HUB AND RELATIVE NETBACKS
Unit: $/MMBtu (2014 real term)
HENRY HUB
NETBACK: FIRM TO
PLANT (HENRY HUB)
Source: IHS Energy
Discount is based on transportation cost and marketing fee for pipeline transportation to end markets
With over 20 Bcfd of new pipe capacity entering service within a 2.5 year period ending in 2018, basis may narrow significantly across Appalachia
Notes: the spot netback is a straight basis calculation to TGP Z4 313/Marcellus;
the firm netbacks assume a constant real $.365 transport rate (assuming pipe rates
increase with inflation), provided by Kalnin, from either the Henry Hub or
Dominion S Pt, since the delivery point is unknown.
NETBACK: SPOT TO TGP
Strong discount on
Tennessee is
expected to persist
through (2016-17)
Higher prices enable and
ongoing build-out, and
basis narrows even more
Lower discount
once buildout is
completed
(2018-20)
ILLUSTRATIVE ONLY
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0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
1Q16 operating performance
BENCHMARK
PRICES
(HENRY HUB)
Differential
to
Henry Hub
1
Operating
expenses
3
ACTUAL
SELLING
GAS PRICES
OPERATING
NET BACK
G&A
4
Corporate
tax
5
NET PROFIT
AFTER TAX
EBITDA
DD&A
6
Based on transportation
cost and marketing fee for
pipeline transportation to
end markets; can be
varied by projects
(1) Economics of Global Shale Gas Development, CWC school(2) Asset retirement obligations
$3.4/MCF NYMEX
FUTURES PRICES BY 2021
A fee charging third-party
well interests for using
owned gas gathering system
and compressor station;
project-specific (might not
be applicable with future
projects)
Midstream
revenue
2
All costs charged by the
Operator to manage the
assets (covering lease, well
workover cost, production
facility, pipeline, processing
plants, etc.)
Allocated portion of
overhead costs
associated with
managing the asset
(including payroll,
research, rent, office
expenses, etc.)
No tax in 1Q16
given potential tax
deductions from
the acquisition
Calculated
on developed
properties (PDP
and PDNP)
including ARO(2)
and related
estimated reserves
Majority of
impact from
price increase
goes to the
bottom line
CHAFFEE CORNERS’ 1Q16 OPERATING PERFORMANCE
Unit: $/McfNOTE: FIGURES COULD VARY
MONTH BY MONTH; MIGHT
NOT BE APPLICABLE TO
FUTURE PROJECTS
1 2 3 4 5 6
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Requires drilling only ~6 wells per year to maintain production
Asset has significant additional drilling inventory and can maintain current production levels for 20-30+ years
Operating costs are low driven by
(i) modular facilities design
(ii) operator capability
(iii) current commodity price environment
Source: Fund team analysis
ILLUSTRATIVE TARGET PRODUCTION (NET TO BANPU)
Unit: Mcfd
Chaffee Corners output targets
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
ม.ค.-16
ม.ิย.-16
พ.ย.-16
เม.ย.-17
ก.ย.-17
ก.พ.-18
ก.ค.-18
ธ.ค.-18
พ.ค.-19
ต.ค.-19
ม.ีค.-20
ส.ค.-20
ม.ค.-21
ม.ิย.-21
พ.ย.-21
เม.ย.-22
ก.ย.-22
ก.พ.-23
ก.ค.-23
ธ.ค.-23
พ.ค.-24
ต.ค.-24
ม.ีค.-25
ส.ค.-25
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Concluding thoughts
Drivers of current opportunities available in the market
Long-term global markets (for both oil and gas) affected by developments in the USA
Continue to actively explore synergistic opportunities
Low commodity price environment for both oil & gas
Big changes in midstream infrastructure (e.g., pipelines, petrochemicals, LNG, etc.)
Changing player landscape and potential for consolidation (due to economies of scale)
US to become a leading exporter of natural gas (to Europe and Asia)
US to become marginal producer for oil as unconventional projects lower breakeven costs ahead of other sources of supply
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Financial summary
Power business
Coal marketing
Coal operations
Focus: shale gas
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4
3
2
1
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2016e OUTPUT (ROM EQUITY BASIS)
Wollongong
PKCT
Airly
NeubeckAngus Place
Clarence
Springvale
Mandalong Myuna
Newstan
Sydney
PWCS
Newcastle
Inglenook
Project
Underground mine
Port
Power station
RoadRail
C&M 4
WESTERN OPERATIONS: 2016e: 5.7 Mt
NORTHERN OPERATIONS: 2016e: 7.8 Mt
NCIG
2016e output: 13.5 Mt
KEY UPDATES
Production
1Q16 Equity ROM: 3.6 Mt (down 17% YoY). (Note: 1Q15 included production from Angus Place and Charbon).
Following the 2014/15 decision to focus on higher margin operations, the group continues to deliver cost improvements, production and productivity records.
ASP
1Q16: ~A$63/t vs 4Q15: ~A$63/t – with ASP maintained through a focus on domestic markets.
1Q16 Sales volume up 22% QoQ (as Mandalong returned to full production after its 4Q15 LW changeover).
Domestic: export split 70%:30% (2015: 62%:38%) –responding to continued export price weakness.
Note 1: Mannering placed on “Care & Maintenance” November 2012 – benefiting from new production sharing arrangement with neighbouring mine.
Note 2: NCIG = Newcastle Coal Infrastructure Group; PWCS = Port Waratah Coal Services; PKCT = Port Kembla Coal Terminal.
Note 3: Newstan (1 August 2014) and Angus Place (February 2015 ) placed on care & maintenance.
Australia coal: operational and financial summary
1Q16 YoY QoQ
Sales revenue A$216M ▼ 8% ▲ 22%
EBITDA A$40M ▼ 12% ▲ 514%
PBT A$(4)M ▼55% ▲86%
NPAT A$(3)M ▼55% ▲86%
Gearing(Net debt to net debt + book value of equity)
39%
FINANCIAL SUMMARY
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Australia coal: Northern operations quarterly output
COAL OUTPUT (Mt)1
CV: 6,700 kcal/kg2
2.0
1.1
1.8
0.8
1.8
1.2
1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16e
0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5
1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16e
Mandalong
Quarterly production up 134% QoQ, but down 12% YoY, with 4Q15 production impacted by a known dyke and a planned longwall changeover.
1Q16 – Production recommenced in early January, 10 days ahead of budget, with the mine also benefitting from a record ramp-up.
Myuna
Quarterly production up 18% QoQ, but down 23% Y0Y.
Restructured Myuna in late 2015 – to maintain production levels and provide greater flexibility utilising less resources.
1Q16 – While production has improved, Myuna continues to be impacted by variable conditions. The return of two continuous miners from overhaul in April should lead to further improvement.
COMMENTS
Decision made to return mine to care and maintenance – effective 1 August 2014
8Mt Northern Coal Services state approval received, underpinning the Newstan extension project for when coal industry economics improve.
Note: 1 ROM output on an equity basis2 CV figures are air-dried basis3 Longwall
LW3 MOVE SCHEDULE
Mth 1
Mth 2
Mth 3
1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16e 3Q16e
3 wks
3 wks
MYUNA
COAL OUTPUT (Mt)1
CV: 6,700 kcal/kg2
NEWSTAN EXTENSIONMANDALONG
3 wks
20
Springvale:
Production up 29% QoQ and 25% YoY - achieving a new quarterly and monthly record.
Legal challenge to Springvale approval process.
Clarence:
1Q16 production down 23% QoQ and 17% YoY, with the mine on development activities.
A new daily production record was achieved in March.
Following the return of the recently overhauled FCT, the introduction of a new FCT operating regime, a new daily FCT development record was also achieved in the quarter.
Airly: Production up 7% QoQ and 21% YoY – achieving new daily and weekly production records.
OTHER OPERATIONS
COAL OUTPUT (Mt) 1
CV: 6,700 kcal/kg 2
0.6 0.60.0
0.6 0.70.4
COAL OUTPUT (Mt) 1
CV: 6,700 kcal/kg 2
1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16e
1 ROM output on an equity basis: Angus Place and Springvale 50%, Clarence 85% and Charbon 95% 2 CV figures are air-dried basis3 Longwall4 Flexible Conveyor TrainNote: Following material overflow in reject emplacement area at Clarence in July, authorities were notified and actions were taken in compliance with NSW Environmental Protection Agency Clean-up Notice
COMMENTS
Mth 1
Mth 2
Mth 3
1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16e 3Q16e
LW 3 MOVE SCHEDULE
12 wks
SPRINGVALE CLARENCE
0.7 0.6 0.7 0.80.5 0.7
COAL OUTPUT (Mt) 1
CV: 6,700 kcal/kg 2
1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16e
0.50.2 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.2
1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16e
2 wks
Australia coal: Western operations quarterly output
5 wks
21
Continued focus on cost control and productivity, driven by step-change in productivity programme and increasing LW automation.
On a like-for-like basis, productivity continues to improve, with several production records achieved across the group.
1Q16 over 4Q15 cost improvement driven by increased volumes (primarily from Mandalong and Springvale).
Targeting a further reduction in unit cost on a full-year basis.
AVERAGE PRODUCTION COSTS COMMENTS
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
FY14
General expenses
Open-cut contractor cost
Repairs & maintenance
Stores & supplies
Labour
Depreciation
* These figures do not include selling, distribution and royalty costs; based on ‘sold’ production
$49
A$/t
Cash overhead
$50$49
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
2015
FY15 1Q FY16E
$46 $45
$54
$48
2016
$52
Coal handling & preparation
1 Flexible Conveyor Train
Australia coal: operating costs
FY13
$52
22
Indonesia coal: operational and financial summary
PRODUCTION OUTPUT 2016
FINANCIAL SUMMARY
East Kalimantan
Bunyut Port
Balikpapan
Palangkaraya
Banjarmasin
Central Kalimantan
South Kalimantan
Kitadin -Embalut1.1 Mt
Indominco16.0 Mt
Trubaindo6.2 Mt
Bharinto2.4 Mt
Jorong1.2 Mt
Samarinda
Jorong Port
Bontang Coal Terminal
Captive coal-fired power project
KEY UPDATES
2016 target: 26.9 Mt ● Indominco : 1Q16 production was higher than plan
due to exposed coal inventory from end of 2015 and good weather condition at Indominco area.
● Trubaindo: 1Q16 production output was slightly lower than target due to rainy days affecting mine production.
● Bharinto: 1Q16 production is according to target● Kitadin Embalut : 1Q16 production is according to
target● Jorong: 1Q16 production is according to target
1Q16 YoY QoQ
Sales revenue US$331M ▼ 23% ▼ 14%
EBITDA US$50M ▼33% ▼ 25%
NPAT US$23M ▼ 39% ▲ 216%
Gearing(Net debt to net debt + book value of equity)
n.a.
CAPEX US$5M
23
0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
CV: 5300 kcal/kg**
STRIP RATIOS (bcm/t)
1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16e
1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16e
1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16e
5.5
10.9
5.4
10.5
4.6
13.8
Indonesia coal: quarterly output
Note: *Output figures are 100% basis**CV figures are air-dried basis
JO
RO
NG
EMBALUT AND JORONGINDOMINCO - BONTANG TRUBAINDO - BHARINTO
E B
LO
CK
TD
MY
W B
LO
CK
IND
OM
INC
OT
DM
Y
TR
UB
AIN
DO
BH
AR
INT
OT
RU
BA
IND
OB
HA
RIN
TO
EM
BA
LU
TJ
OR
ON
GE
MB
AL
UT
EA
ST
WE
ST
COAL OUTPUT (Mt)*CV: 5950 - 6250 kcal/kg**
COAL OUTPUT (Mt)*CV: 6550 - 6700 kcal/kg**
COAL OUTPUT (Mt)*
CV: 5800 kcal/kg**
1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16e
1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16e
3.2 3.2 2.9 2.8 3.1 3.4
0.2 0.30.3 0.4
0.80.60.6 0.7
0.6 0.6
4.04.2
3.8 3.8 3.9 4.0
STRIP RATIOS (bcm/t)
20.7
7.3
10.4
14.0
8.3
6.6
17.1
9.5
3.8
14.4
11.4
1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16e
1.8 1.9 2.0 1.71.2 1.2
0.50.7 0.7
0.9
0.5 0.6
STRIP RATIOS (bcm/t)
1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16e
2.72.3
2.6
8.8
6.7
8.2
5.3
2.6
7.8
9.0
7.8
3.6
4.6
12.6
1.7
13.8
7.88.3
6.4
3.9
13.2
1.8
13.6
6.3
9.0
6.4
4.1
11.0
24
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
FY13FY14 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q FY15 1Q FY16
Indonesia coal: total costs
* Repair and maintenance, salaries and allowances, etc.
COMMENTS
Continue to implement cost reduction programs:
- Optimize strip ratios, reduce overburden distance, overhaul parts, IPCC optimization
- Lower explosive cost, ship-loading cycle time, barging negotiation
The fall in oil price has also helped ITM to reduce cost further
INDICATIVE AVERAGE TOTAL COSTS
Mining cost
Other production costs*
Depreciation & amortisation
SG&A expenses
Royalty
$52
$59
$52
$42
U$/t
$48$46
2015
FY16
$49
$43
2016
$62
25
CHINA COAL 2016 PRODUCTION
2.7
1.92.1
2.7 2.6
2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16E
BEIJING
Hebi(40%),Henan1.2 Mt
Gaohe(45%),Shanxi
9 Mt
Note: * Output figures are ROM output (100% basis)** CV figures are air-dried basis*** Exchange rate of 1Q156is RMB 6.55/USD
Gaohe
1Q16 production increased from 4Q15 due to good miningconditions.
Market is stabilizing going into 2Q16, but temporarydemand softening due to long Spring festival holiday.
Central Government issued policy to address the oversupplysituation on both short term and long term perspective
Selling price declined due to weak market demand andaddition of low price for low CV coal in Gaohe product mix
Hebi
Underground working area improvements: enhance dustcontrol in underground working areas; closely monitoringthe gas and CO2 conditions in development areas adjacent togoaf(1) and increase safety management on gas control.
OPERATIONAL UPDATES
Summary 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16
Sales (Mt) 2.2 1.9 2.2 1.9
ASP (US$/t) 55 49 41 37
Revenue (US$ M) *** 107 87 91 69
COGS (US$/t) 39 40 42 36
EBITDA (US$ M) 44 9 12 21
OperationProject
OperationProject
POWER
COAL
Gaohe
CV: 6500-8000 Kcal/kg**
2Q15 – 1Q16 COAL OUTPUT (Mt ROM)
2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16E
China coal: operational summary
Hebi
CV: 5300-6800 Kcal/kg**
0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Note: (1)Part of a mine from which the mineral has been partially or wholly removed
26
UNST KHUDAG AND ALTAI NUURS PROJECTSTSANT UUL PROJECT
* Mineral Resources Authority of Mongolia
Unst Khudag Project
Received MRAM* approval of the coal mining Feasibility Study
Continuing water resource modeling and development
Currently conducting preliminary feasibility program for coal conversion and power facility scenarios including technical and market related studies
Altai Nuurs Project
Completing preparations to apply for the mining licenses.
Product testing results have been favorable which indicates suitability for certain market segments in China.
The technical pre-feasibility study and market study for commercial-scale development will be conducted in 3Q16
OVEN PLANT INSTALLATION
Mongolia coal: project developments
27
Financial summary
Power business
Coal marketing
Coal operations
Focus: shale gas
5
4
3
2
1
Looking ahead6
28
SUPPLY TRENDS DEMAND TRENDS
-27 Mt-20 Mt
+5 Mt +2 Mt
-1 Mt
+1 Mt
-13 Mt -1 Mt
Indonesia Australia RussiaColombia S.Africa Others India OthersOther
N.Asia
EuropeChina*
Uncertainty of demand in China and falling demand in India and
Europe continues depressing market. A headline Japanese thermal
contract price was settled at US$61.60/t, around US$10/t premium over
spot price, should lead to a change in price setting process in Asia.
Note: *includes anthracite and lignite
-15 Mt -10 Mt -10 Mt
+9 Mt
-9 Mt
+5 Mt
(-5 to -15 Mt)
USA : low gas prices; production cuts deepen; coal company bankruptcy; thermal exports mostly uneconomic.
Russia : exporters boost coal export to Asia due to higher prices; strengthened Rouble cuts producer profitability
Indonesia : continues to suffer from China
and India declines; loss significant market share
in China as they respond to changes
slower than Australia; huge oversupply on
LCV coal, bad weather
Australia : bad weather, maintenance and negotiation tactics
tighten supply; take-or-pay continues to force producers to export
more coal; cost reduction and currency
depreciation assist
Colombia : lowest cost supplier in Europe; depreciation of local currency improves competitiveness; wage negotiation with labourunion, more shipments to Asia
South Africa : depreciation of local
currency improves competitiveness;
production problem and bad weather tighten
supply; limited rail capacity; uncertain
expansion
Supply tightness in the first quarter comes from various issues included
bad weather, rail and port maintenance, price negotiation tactics but
production capacity cuts still move slowly.
Europe : low gas
price; gas-switching;
growing environmental
pressures; coal plant
retirements and
increased renewable
energy will lower
import demand
China : weak power demand; rationalizing overcapacity in coal and steel; reduced work days; continued protectionist policy; stabilizing coal prices
India : import declines due to weak power demand and increased domestic coal production; financial loss of power distributor companies limits their ability to buy/deliver power; high coal stocks; tightening environmental norms on ash disposal and water scarcity
Other Asia :
Philippines, Malaysia,
South Korea and
Taiwan are expected
to add around 14 Mt
of coal demand in
2016
GlobalGlobal USA
Global thermal coal market trends: 2016 vs 2015
29
COMMENTS
Note: *includes anthracite and lignite imports/exports
CHINA ANNUALIZED ACTUAL IMPORT 1Q13-1Q16*
CHINA THERMAL COAL IMPORTS/EXPORTS*
137178
235 252229
156 151
18 11 8 6 5 4 10
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016F
Import
Export
Sources: Banpu MS&L Estimates
Unit: Mt
Unit: Mt
CHINA
Government stimulus package to boost property sector, helps to boost demand
Strengthened Chinese demand through March seems to be temporary due to extreme cold wave in March, followed by good rains
Tight domestic supply seems to continue to May/June as stricter government safety/policy measures prevented several mines from resuming operations after Chinese New Year
Limiting of domestic coal output had helped prices hold steady
UN’s sanction on North Korea will reduce anthracite shipment to China, effective early April
» Results in additional import requirement
Oversupplied conditions will continue. Although there was central government announcement of significant production cuts, it’s expected to move slowly in the local government level due to social stability concern
Source: www.sxcoal.com/cn 11 April 2016
CHINA DOMESTIC COAL PRICES
Unit: RMB/t
251 242 244 270 284232 199 201
153 160 167 145 148
7 7 6 5 7 4 4 5 2 5 5 4 10
1Q13 2Q133Q134Q13 1Q14 2Q143Q144Q14 1Q15 2Q153Q154Q15 1Q16
Import
Export
China thermal coal market review
200400600800
1,000
Ma
y-1
2J
ul-
12S
ep-1
2N
ov
-12
Ja
n-1
3M
ar-
13M
ay
-13
Ju
l-13
Sep
-13
No
v-1
3J
an
-14
Ma
r-14
Ma
y-1
4J
ul-
14S
ep-1
4N
ov
-14
Ja
n-1
5M
ar-
15M
ay
-15
Ju
l-15
Sep
-15
No
v-1
5J
an
-16
Ma
r-16
> 5,800 kcal/kg> 5,500 kcal/kg> 5,000 kcal/kg
416382
343
30
India thermal coal market review
COMMENTS
INDIA THERMAL COAL IMPORTS*
INDIA ANNUALIZED ACTUAL IMPORT 1Q13-1Q16
Sources:: Salva Report India, Banpu MS&L Estimates
131
159
135120 126
163 168
197
171 180
142161 157
1Q13 3Q13 1Q14 3Q14 1Q15 3Q15 1Q16
Unit: Mt
Unit: Mt
Still weaknesses in the economy as industrial production growth continues sluggish
Impressive domestic coal production and increasing protectionism reduces coal import in 2016
Indian inland power plants under government control seem to stop using imported coal for blend following government guidance to consume domestic coal
Coal India Limited (CIL) announced price cuts of 10-40% for domestic coal in an attempt to compete with imports
The Indian government raised the clean energy tax to Rupee 400/mt from Rupee 200/mt starting April 2016
» Clean energy tax reduce interest for low CV Indonesian coal import
» Petroleum coke imports will remain high as it was exempted from the clean energy tax
INDIA
Note: *includes lignite grade imports (approximately 25% - 30%)
6887
107
136
163 164154
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016F
31
(1) Excluding Mongolia coal
(2) Sales from Indonesia are included on 100% basis, sales from Australia and China are included on equity basis
COAL SALES(1) SOURCE – DESTINATION ANALYSIS 2016 GLOBAL COAL SALES(2) 2016 BY REGION
THAILAND
HK
CHINA
TAIWAN
ITALY
4.0
1.3
5.0
0.1
0.8
0.6 Mt
INDIA
5.4 Mt
9.1 Mt
JAPAN
1.2
5.6
6.8 Mt
2.3 Mt
MALAYSIA
0.3 Mt
INDONESIA
4.0 Mt PHILIPPINES
2.2 Mt
2.1 Mt
0.1 Mt
AUSTRALIA
9.2 Mt
OTHERS1.01.0
2.0 Mt
Indonesia coal
Australia coal
China coal
Japan, 15%
Korea5%
Taiwan, 5%
China, 20%**
Australia20%
SE Asia19%
India12%
* Illustrative target
** Include coal sales from domestic production in China
S KOREA
1.3
2.3 Mt1.0
Banpu group coal sales 2016e
46.3 Mt(2)
32
Fixed
57%
14%
7%
22%
Fixed
Indexed
28.5 Mt*
INDONESIA COAL
Indicative 2016 Banpu coal sales pricing status
Unpriced
Unsold
36%
32%
13%
6%
7%6%
Indexed
Fixed Export
Domestic: long-term export parity
13.8 Mt*
AUSTRALIA COAL
Domestic: legacy
UnsoldUnpriced
Note: *Target Sales
33
* Included post shipment price adjustments as well as traded coal** The Newcastle Export Index (previously known as the Barlow Jonker Index – BJI)
ITM ASP eased due to general market
weakness
– 1Q16 ASP was 12% down Q-o-Q
Centennial ASP firmed, weakens on
export has been protected by premium
tier domestic pricing
– 1Q16 ASP was 2% down Q-o-Q
NEX benchmark prices remain weak
ITM ASP 1Q16 $49.2* (-12% QoQ)
CEY ASP 1Q16 A$64.8* (-2% QoQ)
NEX** May 12, 2016 $50.78
Unit: $/t
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Ja
n-0
7
Ju
l-0
7
Ja
n-0
8
Ju
l-0
8
Ja
n-0
9
Ju
l-0
9
Ja
n-1
0
Ju
l-10
Ja
n-1
1
Ju
l-11
Ja
n-1
2
Ju
l-12
Ja
n-1
3
Ju
l-13
Ja
n-1
4
Ju
l-14
Ja
n-1
5
Ju
l-15
Ja
n-1
6
Monthly NEX
Quarterly ITM ASP
Quarterly Centennial ASP
BANPU ASP VS BENCHMARK PRICES COMMENTS
Banpu ASPs vs thermal coal benchmark prices
34
Financial summary
Power business
Coal marketing
Coal operations
Focus: shale gas
5
4
3
2
1
Looking ahead6
35
Banpu Power: 1Q16 overview
BANPU POWER EQUITY CAPACITYUNIT: GW
20152010
1.0
2020e
2.5
1.4
THAILAND
BLCP strong
EBITDA: $49M
JAPAN – SOLAR
One additional
Japan project:
Yamagata to COD
in 2017 (20 MW)
Hino (3.5 MW) will
COD in May 2016
LAOS
Hongsa: $43M
EBITDA
CHINA
BIC: EBITDA
increased 24%
from last Q due to
lower coal price
SLG: completed
2nd units;
foundation
construction and
3rd batch auxiliary
equipment bidding
CHINA – SOLAR
Right to acquire
78.5 MW in
Shandong province
60 MW to COD
by June 2016
Renewable
Conventional
TARGET
36
17
13
22
-2 -1-3
1Q15 4Q15 1Q16
USD million
Energy Payment (EP)
Dispatch (%)
Q-Q : -1.5%Y-Y : 20.9%
Q-Q : 73.8%Y-Y : 24.9%
Total revenue
EBIT
EBITDA
Q-Q : -0.1%Y-Y : 18.1%
Q-Q: 72.5 %Y-Y: 38.8%
Based on Banpu’s 50% interest
Equity income
Thailand Power: BLCP in 1Q16
USD million
Availability Payment (AP)
Q-Q : 25.6%Y-Y : 18.4%
12
FX Loss
14
20
Q-Q : 77.4%Y-Y : 25.8%
124.5 133.
1 145.6
1Q15 4Q15 1Q16
53.9 50.8 63.8
1Q15 4Q15 1Q16
39.6 28.5
49.0
1Q15 4Q15 1Q16
38.8 27.5
48.8
1Q15 4Q15 1Q16
65.5 77.4 77.4
1Q15 4Q15 1Q16
80.9 99.4 97.9
1Q15 4Q15 1Q16
FX Loss
37
28.9
53.5 43.1
3Q15 4Q15 1Q16
(5.5)
9.4
1.0
(3.4)
0.4
0.3
3Q15 4Q15 1Q16
27.9
53.3 41.4
3Q15 4Q15 1Q16
35.7
84.4 76.1
3Q15 4Q15 1Q16
12.1
35.5 25.4
3Q15 4Q15 1Q16
23.6
51.4 49.9
3Q15 4Q15 1Q16
USD million
Energy Payment (EP)
Dispatch (%)
Q-Q : -9.8%
Q-Q : -19.5%
Total revenue
EBIT
EBITDA
Q-Q :-28.4 %
Q-Q: -86.4%
Based on Banpu’s 40% interest
Equity income
Laos Power: Hongsa in 1Q16
USD million
Availability Payment (AP)
Q-Q : -2.8%
(8.9)
1.3
FX Loss
FX gain
9.8
Q-Q : -22.3%
93.3 94.8100.0
3Q15 4Q15 1Q16
FX gain
38
100.890.5
102.3
41.4
51.059.9
34.333.2
36.7
1,730
1,9981,928
2,0031,766
1,516
1,820
2,122
1,743
0.420.390.42
0.35 0.310.37
0.410.37
0.42
327 315
429
417 407
512
310 302362
1Q15 4Q15 1Q16 1Q15 4Q15 1Q16 1Q15 4Q151Q16 1Q15 4Q151Q16 1Q15 4Q151Q16
1Q15 4Q151Q16 1Q15 4Q15 1Q16 1Q15 4Q15 1Q16 1Q15 4Q151Q16 1Q15 4Q151Q16
1Q15 4Q15 1Q16 1Q15 4Q15 1Q16 1Q15 4Q15 1Q16 1Q15 4Q15 1Q16 1Q15 4Q151Q16
124.9
56.5
70.6
105.0
123.6107.5
119.0
99.8 77.9
China power: BIC in 1Q16 (100% basis)
Note: *Unaudited figures, **Including transportation
LuannanHebei Province
Power 100 MW
Steam 128 tph
(Banpu 100% )
ZhengdingHebei Province
Power 73 MW
Steam 370 tph
Chilled water 35 MW
(Banpu 100%)
ZoupingShandong Province
Power 100 MW
Steam 450 tph
(Banpu 70%)
Sales*
(RMB$M)
EBITDA
(RMB$M)
Utilization
(hours)
Power tariff
(RMB/kwh)
Coal price**
(RMB/t)BIC 1Q15 4Q15 1Q16
Higher utilization hours and lower coal price helped lessen the impact on lower power tariff, thus both 1Q16 Sales and EBIDA were higher than 4Q15 and YoY.
1Q16 sales were lower than 4Q15 due to lower power tariff and utilization hours.
However, lower coal price lead to higher EBITDA.
Higher utilization hours and lower coal price helped lessen the impact on lower power tariff, thus both 1Q16 Sales and EBIDA were higher than 4Q15 and YoY.
39
Shanxi Lu Guang update
2nd units, chimney and cooling tower pile foundation construction has been completed
3rd batch of auxiliary equipment bidding has been finished.
Awaiting to short listed Lender’s internal approval to provide loan to the project
DISCLAIMER The views, information and indications expressed here including forward looking targets and indications are illustrative only, are subject to change, may be based on incorrect assumptions, and have not
been independently verified. No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the views, information as indications expressed here. This slide should not be relied upon as a
recommendation or forecast by Banpu Public Company Limited. Nothing in this slide should be construed as either an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell shares in any jurisdiction.
INDIRECT COOLING TOWER X PILLAR
CONCRETE CONSTRUCTION
40
Japan solar update
* Banpu effective ownership is between 40-75%
Hino
(COD 2016)
3.5 MWAC
Awaji
(COD 2017)
8 MWAC
Mukawa
(COD 2018)
17 MWAC
Nari Aizu
(COD 2018)
20 MWAC
Olympia
10 MWACTokyo
One additional project: Yamagata (20MWAC)
74.1 MWAC equity 2016-18
20-year PPA, ¥36-40/kwh tariff(c.¢29-32/kwh)
Average capex of c.US$3.5M/MWAC
In the process of adding capacity
Hino (3.5MW) to COD by 20th May 2016
Construction phase
Operation phase
Development phase
Hokkaido
Honshu
ShikokuKyushu
Yabuki
(COD 2018)
7 MWAC
Onami
(COD 2018)
16 MWAC
Yamagata
(COD 2017)
20 MWAC
41
China solar: investment rationaleS
TR
AT
EG
ICF
ITR
EG
UL
AT
ION
SR
ISK
SF
INA
NC
ING
EC
ON
OM
ICS
Banpu Power expansion in renewables in Asia-Pacific
High growth target for renewables to be achieved by 2020-25
Leverage on practical knowledge on local power industry and conducting business in local environment
Supportive regulation from >150GW installation target for solar by 2020
Part of government plan to meet with COP 21 commitment
Policy support and incentives are in place
Supportive policy implementation may face some time lag
Construction risk on quality assurance and meeting with project schedule
Enhance operation performance by engaging competent technical advisor to set proper standard
Develop sound relationship with local stakeholders to ensure smooth integration into local community
Preferable financing terms with relationship bank
One of the fastest growing solar markets in the world (from 3GW in 2011 to >17 GW in 2015)
Stable income from FIT and full dispatch
Preferential tax policy
Attractive reasonable return
17
3
2011 2015
RENEWABLE CAPACITY IN CHINA
Unit: GW
China solar: investment progress
Right to acquire 100% in four solar project by BPP
78.5 MW already approved for investment (of which 60 MW will start their CODs by June 2016)
Estimated 70:30 DE financing; total project cost RMB 604M or $93M
Approximately RMB 1.0 per kwh Feed in tariffs & subsidies
(1) Only tentative D:E ratio subject to actual refinancing at later stage
Shandong
Tianjin Liaoning
Beijing
Hebei
Henan Jiangsu
Anhui
Henan
Zouping
100 MW, 450 tph
Cangzhou
Zhengzhou
WuheXuzhou
Dalian
China solar: photos from the sites
44
Financial summary
Power business
Coal marketing
Coal operations
Focus: shale gas
5
4
3
2
1
Looking ahead6
45
EX
TE
RN
AL
E
VE
NT
SC
OR
PO
RA
TE
E
VE
NT
S
DIR
EC
TIN
DIR
EC
T
Indonesia's HBA coal price drops 15% on year to record low $57/t
BoT and ADB slash 2015 GDP growth forecast from 3% to 2.7%
3Q15 FS: THB M 72.3 net loss
3Q15 results presentation
COD of Hongsa’s 2nd
unit
Key external and corporate events
China to
reduce ratio
of coal in
primary
energy from
66% to 50%
BOT waits for signal
to increase rate
IMFpoised to admit RMB in elite currency basket
ADB expects higher GDP for China at 6.9%
Credit rating agency affirms
A+ with stable outlook
for Banpu’ssenior unsecured
debentures
Indonesia
cut
production
by 20%
missed the
target
China
cuts CFP
tariff by
CNY
0.03/kwh
Tepco
agreed with
Glencore a
floating
price for
imported
coal
4Q15 Analyst
meeting
4Q15 SET
Opportunity Day
Announced
Bt0.50/share
2H15 dividend
2015 Result
Announcement
China GDP
was 6.9% in
2015;
expected
6.7% in 2016
China
announced
no approval
of coal mines
in the next
three years
COP21
Paris’s
agreed to 2°C
temp increase
target
4Q15 1Q16 2Q16
Indonesia to relax
foreign ownership
rules in power,
e-commerce and
retail sectors
Myanmar’s
government
target coal as
main source
China’s power use
may rise mildly in
2016
HBA thermal
coal price up
1.4%
Vietnam
demanding more
Australian coal
BOT likely to
keep rates on
hold for rest
of 2016
ADB cuts
Thai
growth
forecast
Announced
US$554M
investment
plan 2016-20
Announced plan to
issue 1.29b new
shares in rights
offering (raise up
to THB 6.45Bn)
Full commercial
operation of Hongsa
Power Plant
First investment in
unconventional
shale gas
Rights offering
and warrant
issues approved
by AGM
1Q16 result
Announcement on
China solar projects
2H15 Dividend paid
Bt0.5/share
46
Note: ITM and Centennial revenues are consolidated in Banpu income statement.Australia Coal – Third party coal sales included.
*NEX = Newcastle Export Index (formerly Barlow Jonker Index or BJI) It is relevant but not linked to China Coal’s ASP
CHINA COAL
Note: Hebi and Gaohe revenues are not consolidated in Banpu income statement.
SALES (Mt)
AVERAGE SELLING PRICE (US$/t) excl. VAT
REVENUE (US$M)
52 59 48 49 38
1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16
0.8 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.0
1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16
AS
P 6555 49 45 39
1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16
NE
X*
66 60 59 53 51
Equity basis
Equity basis
Domestic
Export
Banpu group Q-Q revenue analysis: coal operations
INDONESIA COAL (ITM)
6.2 5.9 5.9 6.1 5.8
7.1 6.9 6.8 7.1 6.9
1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16
SALES (Mt) 100% basisDomestic
Export
AVERAGE SELLING PRICE (US$/t)
REVENUE (US$M)
428 397 382 383 331
1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16
NE
X*
AS
P
66 60 59 53 51
100% basis
61 57 56 53 48
1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16
AUSTRALIA COAL (CENTENNIAL)
2.3 1.7 2.3 1.8 2.4
3.73.1 3.4
2.83.4
1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16
SALES (Mt)
AVERAGE SELLING PRICE (A$/t)
REVENUE (A$M)
233 198 208 177 216
1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16
AS
P
64 64 61 63 63
1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16
NE
X*
66 60 59 53 51
Equity basis
Equity basis
Domestic
Export
47
447 405 344
190
134 159
53
49 49
1Q15 4Q15 1Q16
Note: Revenue from others is included in Coal Indonesia.
US$ M
690
588552
-20% YoY
Coal Australia
+19% QoQ
-16% YoY
Coal Indonesia
-15% QoQ
-23% YoY
Power
+0% QoQ
-8% YoY
Power
Coal Australia
Coal Indonesia
-6% QoQ
Banpu consolidated sales revenues
48
INDONESIA COALAUSTRALIA COAL
Note: AUD exchange rate – US$ 0.721A$ (Average of 1Q16)
Coal sales Gross margin
1Q15 4Q15 1Q16
17%30%
190
159
Indonesia coal gross margin: 34%
37%34%
US$ MUS$ M Australia coal gross margin: 23%
134
23%
32%
1Q15 4Q15 1Q16
35%37%
331
430396
34%
Banpu consolidated coal gross margin 1Q16: 30%
49
73 6551
3
(9) (10)
45
26 36
32
38 42
1Q15 4Q15 1Q16
Banpu consolidated EBITDA
USD million
152
121
Power Coal Australia Coal China Coal Indonesia
Power
Coal - Australia
Coal - China
Coal - Indonesia
-30% Y-Y
-21% Q-Q
+38% Q-Q -19% Y-Y
+10% Q-Q
+34% Y-Y
120
-21% YoY
Flat QoQ
50
Banpu: 1Q16 consolidated NPAT
21
OTHERS
(5)
NON-
RECURRING
ITEMS
NPAT
FX LOSS
OPERATING
PROFIT
DERIVATIVES
(7)
POWER
33
RECURRING
PROFIT
OTHER
RECURRING
ITEMS
(33)
61
1Q16 NET PROFIT AFTER TAX
UNIT: $M
1Q15 NET PROFIT AFTER TAX
UNIT: $M
63
COAL
41
POWER
22
FX LOSS
DERIVATIVES
2
RECURRING
PROFIT
OPERATING
PROFIT
24
NON-
RECURRING
ITEMS
(6)
OTHERS
NPATOTHER
RECURRING
ITEMS
(33)
4Q15 NET PROFIT AFTER TAX
UNIT: $M
COAL
18
OPERATING
PROFIT
45
(6)
(32)
OTHER
RECURRING
ITEMS
RECURRING
PROFIT
7
(41)
NPATNON-
RECURRING
ITEMS
OTHERS
FX LOSS
DERIVATIVES
POWER
27
COAL
28
FINANCE
CHARGES
MINING PROPERTIES
(15)
(7)
(5)
(1)
(11)
(10)
(1)
(15)
(32)
+21% Q-Q
+54% Y-Y
+54% Q-Q
-33% Y-Y
Derivatives• Gas Oil ($0.5M)• FX Forward ($3.7M)• IRS* ($2.8M)
FX loss• Banpu ($12.9M)• ITM ($0.6M)• CEY ($1M)
*IRS = Interest rate swap
51
Rights offering and warrants issue
USE OF PROCEEDS
Debt repayment to
improve D/E from
1.6x to 1.2x*US$366M
(FULL SUBSCRIPTION)
RATIONALE
Strengthen Banpu’s capital structure
Short-term funding for investments
Provide room for further gearing to pursue medium to long term growth opportunities
Less dependency on market condition
* FX as of 11th May 2016 at Bt 35.25/share* Based on 31st Dec 15 balance sheet
OFFER PRICE
Bt 5/share
RIGHTS OFFERING
(EXISTING:NEW)
2:1
WARRANTS
(NEW SHARE:WARRANT)
1:1
OFFER PRICE
Bt 5/share
RO and Warrants timeline
6
June
1 -5
June
8 - 9
June
15 - 16
June
29 – 2
Aug Sep
5
Sep
25 - 1
Nov Dec
2
Dec
24 - 2
Feb Mar
2017
3
March
19 - 2
May-Jun
5
Jun
23rd – 25th MayPersonal Check/Draft /cashier check Transfer/ATS
26th – 27th May30th – 31st MayOnly Transfer & ATS
MOC Register
First trading
dayfor new
shares
Over-subscription allocation 1st Warrant
NotificationDates
2nd WarrantNotificationDates
3rd WarrantNotificationDates
4th WarrantNotificationDates
1st warrant Exercise
date
2nd warrant Exercisedate
3rd warrant Exercisedate
4th warrant Expiration date
First trading dayfor warrants
ReturnSubscription
Payment Within6th - 14th June
(Max 14 days after subscription)
15
May
10
May
Book Closing
“SP”Date
53
Financial summary
Power business
Coal marketing
Coal operations
Focus: shale gas
5
4
3
2
1
Looking ahead6
54
POWER OPERATIONS
Quarter highlights
COAL OPERATIONS
Banpu’s first investment in oil & gas, in NE Supercore, Marcellus
78.5MW already approved for investment
60MW for COD mid-2016
* Mineral Resources Authority of Mongolia
Indominco production higher than planned due to good weather
Continue to implement cost reduction programs
Operating costs down 7% QoQ
Increased volumes, primarily from Mandalong/Springvale
Sales volume increased 22% QoQ
New production record at Springvale, Clarence and Airly
Strong EBITDA: $49M
100% power dispatch
$43.1M EBITDA
Unit 3: COD ontime
BIC’s EBITDA increased 24% QoQ
Utilization increased 6% QoQ
SLG completed 2nd units foundation construction and 3rd
batch auxiliary equipment bidding
Gaohe’s production increased from 4Q15
Hebi’s underground working area improvements
Mongolia received MRAM* approval
One additional project: Yamagata to COD in 2017 (20MWAC)
Hino to COD later this year (3.5MWAC)
NEW INVESTMENTS
FINANCE
Rights offering and warrants issue: US$366M (full subscription)
55
Horizontal integration: key themes
EX
IST
ING
DOWNSTREAMMIDSTREAMUPSTREAM
COAL RESOURCE
DEVELOPMENT, MINING
COAL LOGISTICS,
TRADING, MARKETING
COAL-FIRED POWER
GENERATION
GAS-FIRED & RENEWABLES
BASED POWER
FUEL PROCUREMENT,
CHEMICALS MARKETING
UNCONVENTIONAL
SHALE GAS
NE
W
UN
DE
R
EV
AL
UA
TIO
N
SMART ENERGY SYSTEMSREGIONAL ENERGY &
CHEMICAL MIDSTREAM
OTHER STRATEGIC
ENERGY RESOURCES
NEW ENERGY RESOURCES SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT SMART ENERGY
BA
NP
U P
OW
ER
Appendices
58
* Drilling, completion & tie-in costs; ** Estimated ultimate recovery; *** The New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) strip is the average of the daily settlement prices of the next 12 months’ futures contracts on natural gas; **** Estimated based on historical prices for Jan-Mar 2016 and Nymex Henry Hub strip as of April 20, 2016;
ACQUISITION PRICE OPERATING METRICS
EV/1P Reserve
~$0.71/Mcf
EV/ Daily production
~$5,300/Mcf/day
EV/Netundeveloped acre
~$4,300/net acre
EV/Lasttwelve months EBITDA
~10x
Avg. NYMEX gas price 2015
$2.63/Mmbtu
Avg. differential to Henry Hub
$0.53/Mcf
Last twelve months EBITDA
~$11 million
Avg. daily production (2016e)
21 Mmcf/day
Operating net back****(2016e)
c. $1.25/Mcf
SINGLE WELL
ECONOMICS (SOUTH)
Average cost per well (DC&T*)
$6.2 million
Average EUR** per well (South)
~10 Bcf
Avg. well operation breakeven gas price
$0.78/Mcf
Full cycle single well IRR at 04/20/16 NYMEX*** strip
17.4%
Chaffee Corners key metrics
59
Attractive valuation good timing
Source: IHS Transaction Analysis database, as of March 10, 2016
* Based on share price as of 12 April 2016, 1P reserves as of 12/31/2014, shown in Mcf equivalent (@ 1 BOE = 6 MCF)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
Appal
achia
(Mar
-16)
Gulf-c
oas
t onsh
ore
(Aug-
15)
Appal
achia
(Feb-1
6)
Appal
achia
(Dec-
15)
Mid
-continent
(May
-15)
Mid
-continent
(Jun-1
5)
Gulf-c
oas
t onsh
ore
(Jul-15)
ACQUISITION PRICE PER PROVED RESERVES
Unit: $/Mcf
CHAFFEE
CORNERS
AVERAGE
AT $1.2/Mcf
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
Chesa
peak
e E
nerg
y
Cab
ot
Oil
and g
as
Ran
ge R
eso
urc
es
South
west
ern
Energ
y
Ultra
Petr
ole
um
Ric
e E
nerg
y
Rex E
nerg
y
EV/Mcf
EV/MCF MULTIPLE* OF LISTED COMPANIES
Unit: $/Mcf
AVERAGE
AT $1.6/Mcf
60
59
Capex
30
PlanActual
* Capex figures exclude maintenance capex
CAPITAL EXPENDITURES*
Unit: US$ M
•Tsant Uul development•Altai Nuurs exploration
•Limited to committed project capex for time being
• IPCC and BunyutExpansion
• Includes Hongsa, SLG, and Japan Solar
2012-2015
400
124
554193
150
170
201
717
2016-2020
POWER
MONGOLIA
AUSTRALIA
INDONESIA
INDICATIVE ONLY
60
Indonesia coal gross margin 1Q16 : 34%
1Q15 4Q15 1Q16
34%
35%37%
331
Indonesia Coal
1Q15 4Q15 1Q16
Indominco
33%37%
30%
174163
194
1Q15 4Q15 1Q16
41%40%
41%
93
Trubaindo
139
117
1Q15 4Q15 1Q16
Jorong
36% 42% 48%13 12
1652%
1Q15 4Q15 1Q16
13
28% 27% 17%
Kitadin
14 17
430
396
1Q15 4Q15 1Q16
Bharinto
3452
36%35% 52%
1Q15 4Q15 1Q16
TandungMayang
128%
16%
27%
35 3635
37%
US$M
61
NPAT IMPACT 1Q2016
(US$m)
APPROXIMATE FX EXPOSURE (US$m)
NPAT 5% SENSITIVITY 2Q2016
(US$m)
-14
-1
-0.6
-12
NET
AUD
ID R
THB & O THER
Banpu: THB bond and others
3
60
AUD
ID R
THB & O THER
24
0.2
-3
27
NET
AUD
ID R
THB & O THER
NET LIABILITY NET ASSET
Moderate growth
Moderate growth
RBA cut rates 25 bps in May
Slowly recovery GDP
Assuming 5% depreciation of local currencies against USD
CURRENCY EXPOSURE
ITMG: IDR asset and liabilities
CEY: USD asset
Net
-550
FX impact analysis guidance on P&L
62
GEARING RATIOS
Banpu gearing and foreign exchange structure
DEBT FX STRUCTURE
Note: 1 Net debt to book value of shareholders' equity
2 Net debt to enterprise value (enterprise value = net debt + market capitalization as at 31 March 2016)
USD Fixed29%
USD Float23%
AUD Fixed
2%
AUD Float7%
THB Float8%
THB Fixed31%
Total gross debt: US$3.7 billionAs of 31 March 2016
1.18 1.40 1.52
Net debt / Equity1 (x)
54% 58% 60%
Net market gearing2 (%)
Net debt / EBITDA (x)
4.4 5.9
2014 2015 1Q162014 2015
63
Banpu group EBITDA breakdown
Note: all ownership 100% unless otherwise shown.*BIC = Banpu Investment China
43 9 11 22
-4 -2 -4 -2
2 1 3 4
13 12 5 1
3 6 3 3
16 25 25 18
22 21 35 23
Jorong
13 29 55 42
52 37 31 49
4
-1 -2 -3
55 65 71 50
50%
40%
Power & New energy
40%
45%
70%
Gaohe
Hebi
BLCP
HONGSA
BIC*
Zouping
6 6 5 6
Zhengding
4 4 9 10
Luannan
4 3 8 9
& holding companies
65%
Indominco
Trubaindo
Kitadin
AACI OVERHEAD
Unit: US$M
100%
32 34 7 40
Consolidated NOT consolidated
-1 -1 -1 -1
13 13 21 23
Unit: AUD Mil
All figures are 100% basis except for Centennial which is equity basis
112 106 121 120
Bharinto
2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16
2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q162Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16
2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16
2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16
2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16
2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16
2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16
2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16
2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16
2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16
2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16
2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16
2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q162Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q162Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16
64
Banpu group net debt breakdown
Note: all ownership 100% unless otherwise shown.
2649 2502 25622122
193 85 225 226
& holding companies
2,776 2,727 2,893 3,241
AUSTRALIA COAL INDONESIA COAL CHINA COAL MONGOLIA COAL
THAILAND POWER
LAOS POWER CHINA POWER
Gaohe Hebi
HONGSABLCP BIC*
100% 65% 45% 40% 100%
50% 40% 100%
720 730 739 709-284 -344 -268 -295
-21 -15 -90 -85 -2 -2 -1 -1
365 323 315 275
-8
0
-9 -15
Unit: AUD Mil
Unit: US$M
Consolidated
NOT consolidated
Net debt
Net cash
2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q162Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16
2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16
2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16
2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16
2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16
Unit: USD million
Sales revenues – Power (BIC)
Cost of sales
Gross profit*
GPM
Sales revenues – Coal
Total sales revenues*
Gross profit - Coal
Gross profit – Power (BIC)
GPM – Power (BIC)
GPM - Coal
-27%
YoY%
-20%
-21%
-33%
-8%
8%
Note: * Including other businesses
-1%
QoQ%
-6%
-7%
-7%
0%
19%
49
(374)
179
32%
1Q16
552
497
151
24
49%
30%
53
(445)
245
36%
1Q15
690
631
226
22
42%
36%
Banpu consolidated : operating profit
49
(407)
180
31%
4Q15
588
536
163
20
41%
30%
65
66
Unit: USD million
Gross profit
GPM
SG&A
Royalty
Other income
EBIT
EBITDA
EBIT - Coal
EBIT - Power
Income from associates
EBITDA - Coal
EBITDA - Power
-27%
-25%
-21%
YoY%
Other expenses - Operations
179
32%
(67)
(52)
8
78
120
1Q16
-
-1%
16%
-1%
QoQ%
245
36%
(91)
(69)
4
103
152
1Q15
75
28
14
120
32
-
Banpu consolidated : operating profit
180
31%
(89)
(48)
9
67
121
4Q15
32
35
14
83
38
-
11
19%14%
-49%43%
38
40
78
42-6%10%
-35%
34%
67
Note: * Income from non-core assets and other non-operating expenses
Unit: USD million
EBIT
Interest expenses
Financial expenses
Minorities
Non-recurring items*
Income tax (non - core business)
Net profit before FX
Income tax (core business)
Net profit before extra items
FX translations
Net Profit
EPS (US$/share)
-25%
YoY%
-21%
n.m.
-43%
Deferred tax income (expenses)
78
1Q16
(31)
(2)
(9)
(5)
(7)
(6)
(17)
19
15
9
(15)
(7)
16%
QoQ%
n.m.
n.m.
10%
Banpu consolidated : net profit
67
4Q15
Mining property
Gain (Loss) on Derivatives Transactions
(30)
(2)
6
(32)
(16)
(40)
(24)
17
(1)
(41)
(0.016)
12
(6)
(15)
103
1Q15
(31)
(2)
(14)
(1)
(13)
12
(24)
33
(10)
2
0.001
11
(7)
(11)
(5)
(0.002)
68
Unit: USD million
Cost of sales
Gross profit
GPM
Royalty
SG&A
EBIT
Sales revenue
Sales volume (Mt)
Other income
Interest expenses
Financial expenses
Gain (loss) on exchange rate
Net profit
Gain (loss) on derivative
Other expenses
Centennial : income statement
YoY%
-34%
-34%
-22%
-39%
-7%
-16%
12%
n.m.
QoQ%
68%
-15%
20%
n.m.
22%
19%
4%
n.m.
Deferred tax income
1Q15
(132.9)
56.7
30%
(13.2)
(31.2)
14.5
3.7
189.6
2.3
(7.0)
(0.7)
(2.5)
(2.2)
(6.5)
.
-
1Q16
(122.1)
37.4
23%
(10.3)
(20.7)
8.8
3.4
159.4
2.5
(6.3)
(0.8)
(1.0)
(3.0)
(3.7)
-
-
4Q15
(111.5)
22.2
17%
(8.6)
(24.3)
(8.2)
2.8
133.7
2.4
(6.1)
(0.9)
(0.2)
(10.5)
(6.2)
-
11.1
69
Note: 1. Bar width is indicative of the equity production contributions to Centennial2. Production generally responds to the timing of longwall changeovers (i.e. lower production results during a longwall changeover period) 3. Angus Place was put on care and maintenance from February 2015.
Normal production Bolt-up/commissioning
1.81.4
1.01.4 1.4 1.2 1.6 1.5
2.5
1.6 2.2 1.1
2.11.7
2.3
1.7
3.0 3.2
2.5 2.9 3.2
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16e 3Q16e 4Q16e
4.3
Total equity ROM (Mt)
WE
ST
ER
NN
OR
TH
ER
N
LW relocation
2015 2016e
LW move Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Mandalong
(100%)
Springvale
(50%)
3 wks
6 wks
Awaiting Approvals
3wks
ACTUAL
3 wks
3 wks
5 wks
3.53.9
Australia coal: quarterly equity ROM output
PLANNED (INDICATIVE ONLY)
Barrel (Bbl)This is the standard measurement for quantities of oil. One barrel of oil is equal to 42 gallons.
McfGas is measured in number of cubic feet. Thousands of cubic feet, or Mcf, is the standard measurement for quantities of gas. Production can be measured in Mmcfd, meaning million cubic feet of natural gas produced per day
ReservoirA reservoir is defined by four features. These four features are the accumulation of hydrocarbons via a present source rock, organic material that is "cooked" into hydrocarbons, porosity and permeability, and an impervious cap rock.
PorosityPorosity is defined as the pore space within the rocks.
PermeabilityPermeability entails the connections between pore spaces within the rock.
DrillingThis process entails using a drilling rig to drill the vertical or horizontal wellbore for the future extraction of hydrocarbons.
CompletingThe activities that take place after the initial drilling of a well, and are used for bringing a well on to production. This involves cementing, perforating, fracking, and more. Together, in the Chaffee Corner area, drilling and completion costs average ~$6.0MM.
O&G GLOSSARY
70
O&G GLOSSARY
Hydraulic FracturingThe process of pumping water, sand and chemicals into a drill wellbore in order to fracture impermeable rock. This fracturing then allows hydrocarbons, previously considered inaccessible, to flow towards the wellbore for production.
Vertical WellA well drilled directly above the producing target, straight down.
Horizontal WellA well drilled vertically to a given depth, then gradually curved until the wellbore is horizontal, so as to intersect a producing formation across thousands of horizontal feet.
OperatorThe operator is the company whose name is on the well and manages the day-to-day operations. The operator is one and only one of the joint working interest owners.
Non-operatorNon-operators pay their proportionate share to the operator. This involves all of the rest of the joint working interest owners, other than the operator.
Joint Working InterestTwo or more parties each own an undivided fraction of the working interest in a single lease.
Lease Operating Expenses (LOE)Lease Operating Expenses are measured as a function of costs per thousand cubic feet (mcf) of gas produced.
71
Oil and Gas LeasePrior to drilling activities, an Oil and Gas Lease must be retrieved from the mineral owner. Mineral owners are paid an upfront Lease Bonus, in addition to a royalty percentage from any productive well.
Held By Production (HBP)Acreage is HBP when there is a producing well on the underlying Oil and Gas Lease. In this event, the Oil and Gas Lease will not expire, as long as the well continues to produce hydrocarbons.
Economic ReservesThe quantity of reserves that are technically and economically recoverable under existing conditions and operating methods are deemed to be Economic Reserves.
Proved Developed Reserves (PDP)Proved Developed Reserves are expected to be extracted through existing wells and equipment, and are actively being produced.
Proved Undeveloped Reserves (PUD)Proved Undeveloped Reserves are expected to be extracted through new wells on undrilled acreage, however, this undrilled acreage must be "proved" to a reasonable extent.
Estimated Ultimate RecoveryThe estimated cumulative amount of oil or gas forecasted for a single well. Typically, this production will occur over 40 to 50 years.
Single Well EconomicsSingle Well Economics measure the economics of a single oil or gas well. These economics account for relevant acquisition costs, drilling and completion costs, and production over the 40 to 50 year life of the well.
O&G GLOSSARY
72