1Q 2018 Investor Presentation -...
Transcript of 1Q 2018 Investor Presentation -...
1Q 2018 Investor Presentation
May 10, 2018
May 10, 2018 2
Disclaimer
Certain statements contained in this release are forward-looking statements and are based on future expectations, plans and prospects for the Company’s business and operations
that involve a number of risks and uncertainties. The forward-looking statements and other information in this release are made as of the date (except where noted otherwise), and
the Company undertakes no obligation (nor does it intend) to publicly supplement, update or revise such statements on a going-forward basis, whether as a result of subsequent
developments, changed expectations or otherwise. In connection with the “safe harbor” provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, the Company is identifying
examples of factors, risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ, perhaps materially, from those indicated by these forward-looking statements. Those factors, risks
and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, credit market disruptions or economic slowdowns, which could affect the volume of debt and other securities issued in domestic
and/or global capital markets; other matters that could affect the volume of debt and other securities issued in domestic and/or global capital markets, including regulation, credit
quality concerns, changes in interest rates and other volatility in the financial markets such as that due to the U.K.’s referendum vote whereby the U.K. citizens voted to withdraw from
the EU; the level of merger and acquisition activity in the U.S. and abroad; the uncertain effectiveness and possible collateral consequences of U.S. and foreign government actions
affecting credit markets, international trade and economic policy; concerns in the marketplace affecting our credibility or otherwise affecting market perceptions of the integrity or utility
of independent credit agency ratings; the introduction of competing products or technologies by other companies; pricing pressure from competitors and/or customers; the level of
success of new product development and global expansion; the impact of regulation as an NRSRO, the potential for new U.S., state and local legislation and regulations, including
provisions in the Financial Reform Act and regulations resulting from that Act; the potential for increased competition and regulation in the EU and other foreign jurisdictions; exposure
to litigation related to our rating opinions, as well as any other litigation, government and regulatory proceedings, investigations and inquires to which the Company may be subject
from time to time; provisions in the Financial Reform Act legislation modifying the pleading standards, and EU regulations modifying the liability standards, applicable to credit rating
agencies in a manner adverse to credit rating agencies; provisions of EU regulations imposing additional procedural and substantive requirements on the pricing of services and the
expansion of supervisory remit to include non-EU ratings used for regulatory purposes; the possible loss of key employees; failures or malfunctions of our operations and
infrastructure; any vulnerabilities to cyber threats or other cybersecurity concerns; the outcome of any review by controlling tax authorities of the Company’s global tax planning
initiatives; exposure to potential criminal sanctions or civil remedies if the Company fails to comply with foreign and U.S. laws and regulations that are applicable in the jurisdictions in
which the Company operates, including data protection and privacy laws, sanctions laws, anti-corruption laws, and local laws prohibiting corrupt payments to government officials; the
impact of mergers, acquisitions or other business combinations and the ability of the Company to successfully integrate acquired businesses; currency and foreign exchange volatility;
the level of future cash flows; the levels of capital investments; and a decline in the demand for credit risk management tools by financial institutions. Other factors, risks and
uncertainties relating to our acquisition of Bureau van Dijk could cause our actual results to differ, perhaps materially, from those indicated by these forward-looking statements,
including risks relating to the integration of Bureau van Dijk’s operations, products and employees into Moody’s and the poss ibility that anticipated synergies and other benefits of the
acquisition will not be realized in the amounts anticipated or will not be realized within the expected timeframe; risks that the acquisition could have an adverse effect on the business
of Bureau van Dijk or its prospects, including, without limitation, on relationships with vendors, suppliers or customers; claims made, from time to time, by vendors, suppliers or
customers; changes in the European or global marketplaces that have an adverse effect on the business of Bureau van Dijk. These factors, risks and uncertainties as well as other
risks and uncertainties that could cause Moody’s actual results to differ materially from those contemplated, expressed, projected, anticipated or implied in the forward-looking
statements are described in greater detail under “Risk Factors” in Part I, Item 1A of the Company’s annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2017, and in other
filings made by the Company from time to time with the SEC or in materials incorporated herein or therein. Stockholders and investors are cautioned that the occurrence of any of
these factors, risks and uncertainties may cause the Company’s actual results to differ materially from those contemplated, expressed, projected, anticipated or implied in the forward-
looking statements, which could have a material and adverse effect on the Company’s business, results of operations and financial condition. New factors may emerge from time to
time, and it is not possible for the Company to predict new factors, nor can the Company assess the potential effect of any new factors on it.
May 10, 2018 3
Table of Contents
1. Financial Overview
2. Capital Markets Overview
3. Moody’s Investors Service (MIS)
4. Moody’s Analytics (MA)
5. Conclusion
6. Appendix
May 10, 2018 4
» Ratings
» Estimated Default Frequency
Analytics (EDFs)
» Market-Implied
Ratings (MIRs)
Ratings
EDFs
MIRs
Credit Risk
Measurement
Specialized Use Cases,
e.g., ESG, KYC / AML,
Transfer Pricing, etc.
Other Financial
Risk
Assessments
Information
Aggregation &
Harmonization
Gather and Curate
Widest Range of
Financial and Credit
Risk Data
Methodologies
Company Data
Research
Training & Certification
Analyst Outreach
Risk
Understanding
Curated Data & Technology
Advisory Services
Stress Testing
Software
Risk
Management
» Defend and enhance our core
ratings & research businesses
– Ratings: predictive, predictable and
transparent
– Research: timely and insightful
» Pursue strategic growth
opportunities
– Leverage the brand to extend our reach
in financial markets
– More broadly occupy credit / financial risk
management and information vertical
– Extend both thought leadership footprint
and presence as a recognized standard
– Move upstream in emerging financial
markets
Moody’s Mission: To be the World’s Most Respected
Authority Serving Risk-Sensitive Financial Markets
1 Financial Overview
May 10, 2018 6
Provides financial
intelligence and analytical
tools supporting our clients’
growth, efficiency and risk
management objectives
Solutions address diverse
needs and customers
Extending brand into new
markets and deepening
customer relationship
Independent provider of
credit rating opinions and
related information for over
100 years
Proven ratings accuracy
and deeply experienced
analysts
Expanded sales and
marketing activities in
Commercial group
Leading global provider of
credit rating opinions,
insight and tools for
financial risk
measurement and
management
Revenue of
$4.4 billion
Operating Income
of $1.9 billion
MIS
86%
MA
14%
MIS
65%
MA
35%
Note: Financial data for the trailing twelve months ended March 31, 2018.
Overview of Moody’s Corporation
May 10, 2018 7
1 Guidance as of April 27, 2018.
2 Adjusted diluted EPS is an adjusted measure. See appendix for reconciliations from adjusted financial measures to U.S. GAAP.
3 Includes an approximate $0.65 benefit resulting from U.S. corporate tax reform. See appendix for reconciliations from adjusted financial measures to U.S. GAAP.
4 2013 – 2017 operating and adjusted operating margins have been restated to conform to the new presentation of pension accounting.
5 Adjusted Operating Margin is an adjusted measure. See appendix for reconciliation from adjusted financial measures to U.S. GAAP.
6 As of May 2018, over the last five available fiscal years ended 2017. Free Cash Flow is an adjusted financial measure. See appendix for reconciliation from adjusted financial
measures to U.S. GAAP. Source: FactSet.
7 Includes: CLGX, DNB, EXPN, FDS, INFO, MORN, MSCI, SPGI, TRI and VRSK.
Operating Margin4
Adjusted Diluted EPS2Revenue
$0.0
$1.0
$2.0
$3.0
$4.0
$5.0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018F
$ B
illio
ns
Low-double-digit
% growth
$1 of
Revenue
$3.74$4.31 $4.71 $4.94
$6.07
$2.00
$3.00
$4.00
$5.00
$6.00
$7.00
$8.00
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018F
42
.0%
43
.5%
42
.8%
18
.1%
43
.3%
45
.1%
46
.3%
46
.0%
45
.9%
47
.6%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018F
Operating Margin Adj. Operating Margin
~ 4
8%
43
% -
44
%
$0.12
$0.22
$0.28
S&P 500
Select Peers
Moody's
5-year Average Free Cash Flow Conversion6
$7.65
to
$7.853
11
1
5
7
Financial Performance
May 10, 2018 8
Note: Long-term growth opportunities presented on this slide are on average over time.
1 Assumes no material change in effective tax rate, foreign exchange rates, leverage profile and/or capital allocation policy.
2 Subject to market conditions and other ongoing capital allocation decisions.
Long-Term Growth Opportunities
Three Levers to Achieve EPS Growth
May 10, 2018 9
$893
$1,221$1,098
$739
$200$43
$197
$236$272
$285
$290
$84
$0
$400
$800
$1,200
$1,600
150
170
190
210
230
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 1Q18
$ M
illions
Mill
ion
s o
f S
ha
res
Share Repurchases (R) Dividends Paid (R)
Shares Outstanding (L)
$1,090
$1,457$1,370
Disciplined Approach to Capital Allocation
1 Dividend payout ratio is defined as dividends per share paid/adjusted net income.
2 Annualized dividend total, based on first and second quarter dividend of $0.44 declared on January 24, 2018 and April 24, 2018, respectively.
Share Repurchases and Dividends Paid Annualized Dividend Per Share
$1,024
Investing in Growth Opportunities Return of Capital
Reinvestment
Invest in existing
businesses to
support organic
growth
Acquisitions
Evaluate carefully to
make sure aligned
with strategy and
market evolution
Dividends
Grow dividend in line
with earnings; target
25% - 30% payout1
Share Repurchase
Follow reinvestment,
dividends and
acquisitions in capital
allocation prioritization
$0.90
$1.12
$1.36$1.48 $1.52
$1.76
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 20182
$490
$128
May 10, 2018 10
» Current long-term credit ratings from S&P and Fitch are BBB+ (negative) / BBB+ (stable)
» Solid investment-grade rating provides reliable, cost-effective access to capital in a
variety of market environments
0.0x
0.5x
1.0x
1.5x
2.0x
2.5x
3.0x
$0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E
$ M
illio
ns
Debt Outstanding (L) Gross Debt/Adj. Operating Income (R)
De-leveraging in 2018 to Maintain Current BBB+
Credit Rating
1 Amount is an adjusted measure. See Appendix for reconciliations from adjusted financial measures to U.S. GAAP.
1
May 10, 2018 11
1 See press release titled “Moody's Corporation Reports Results for First Quarter 2018” from April 27, 2018 for Moody’s full 2018 guidance.
2 These metrics are adjusted measures. See Appendix for reconciliations from adjusted financial measures to U.S. GAAP.
Guidance as of April 27, 20181
Revenue Low-double-digit % growth
Operating Expenses Low-double-digit % growth
Operating Margin 43% - 44%
~48% (Adjusted2)
Effective Tax Rate 22% - 23%
EPS $7.20 - $7.40
$7.65 - $7.85 (Adjusted2)
Free Cash Flow2 ~$1.6 billion
2018 Outlook
2 Capital Markets Overview
May 10, 2018 13
Historically, Rising Rates Have not had a Significant
Impact on Moody’s Revenue
1 10-yr U.S. Treasury Yields are represented by the rate at the end-of-period.
Source: www.treasury.gov.
+200bps
+120bps
+100bps
+180bps
MCO Revenue and Interest Rates
5.8%
7.8%
4.7%
6.5%
2.3%
3.3%
1.8%
3.0%2.5%2.4%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
$3,500
$4,000
$4,500
199
2
199
3
199
4
199
5
199
6
199
7
199
8
199
9
200
0
200
1
200
2
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
201
5
201
6
201
7
$ M
illio
ns
MIS Revenue (L) MA Revenue (L) MCO Revenue (L) 10-yr U.S. Treasury Yield (R)1
May 10, 2018 14
Debt Leverage Down in North America, Stable in
Europe; Interest Coverage Remains Steady
Credit Metrics: North American Speculative Grade Companies
Source: Moody’s Investors Service.
1.7x 1.6x 1.4x 1.3x 1.6x 1.9x 1.7x 1.7x 1.6x 1.7x 1.7x 1.8x 1.9x
4.2x 4.2x 4.5x 4.5x 4.4x 4.2x 4.3x 4.6x 4.8x 4.9x 5.1x 5.2x 5.0x
0.0x
1.0x
2.0x
3.0x
4.0x
5.0x
6.0x
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 3Q 2017
Inte
rest
Covera
ge
(EBITDA - Capex) / Interest Expense Debt / EBITDA
Credit Metrics: European Speculative Grade Companies
1.4x 1.8x 1.6x 1.5x 1.5x 1.5x 1.8x 1.6x 1.7x
4.9x4.3x 4.5x 4.8x 5.0x 4.9x
4.1x4.5x 4.5x
0.0x
1.0x
2.0x
3.0x
4.0x
5.0x
6.0x
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Inte
rest
Covera
ge
(EBITDA - Capex) / Interest Expense Debt / EBITDA
May 10, 2018 15
1.4%
1.7%
1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019F
Global U.S. Europe
Global Default Rates Remain Under Historic Average
Default Rates for Corporate Rated Issuance1
4.3% global historic average1
1 Moody’s rated corporate global speculative grade default historical average of 4.3% since 1998. 2019 forecast for trailing twelve months ended March 31, 2019.
Source: Moody’s Investors Service.
» Global speculative-grade default rate at 3.2% as of March 31, 2018; expected to decline
to 1.4% by March 2019
May 10, 2018 16
North America and EMEA Non-Financial Corporates
Have Significant Refunding Needs1
Debt Maturities: North America Moody’s-Rated Corporate Bonds and Loans
$175$206
$226 $225 $239
$28$60
$90$121
$180
$8$49
$101
$181$223
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
$ B
illio
ns
Source: MIS, February 2018.
Note: Data represents U.S. & Canadian MIS rated corporate bonds & loans.
Debt Maturities: EMEA Moody’s-Rated Corporate Bonds and Loans
$188 $193 $179 $186
$45 $49 $65 $65$52 $58 $59 $66
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
2018 2019 2020 2021
$ B
illio
ns
Source: MIS, July 2017.
2018 – 2022 CAGR
Investment Grade Bonds: 8%
Speculative Grade Bonds: 60%
Speculative Grade Bank Loans: 127%
1 Amount reflects total maturities identified in the above sources.
Investment Grade Bonds Speculative Grade Bonds Speculative Grade Bank Loans
2018 – 2021 CAGR
Investment Grade Bonds: flat
Speculative Grade Bonds: 13%
Speculative Grade Bank Loans: 8%
May 10, 2018 17
Debt Refinancing and M&A are Most Frequently
Stated Uses of Proceeds
1 Percent of mentions for each respective period in bond issue or bank loan program tranche documents. Excludes issues of less than $25 million and general corporate purposes.
An issue can have multiple purposes and, as a result, percentages do not sum to 100%.
Source: Moody’s Analytics.
Uses of Funds from USD High Yield Bonds and Bank Loans1
62% 52%
83%
71% 74%78%
71%65%
54%64%
71%67%
63% 53%
19%
31% 30%25%
31%41% 54%
41%
39%43%
22% 17%
11%
7% 8% 8%7% 8%
5% 6%5% 6%
12% 9% 4%
18% 17% 18% 22% 20% 16% 17% 13% 15%
1999 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 1Q18
% o
f M
entions
Debt Refinancing M&A Capital Spending Shareholder Payments
May 10, 2018 18
Disintermediation of Credit is an Ongoing Trend in the Global Capital Markets
Sources: ECB, Federal Reserve, BarCap Indices. Europe bank loan data includes Eurozone and UK bank loans. Europe bond data includes euro and sterling denominated bonds.
European data is through February 2018 and U.S. data is through March 2018.
European Non-Financial Corporate
Bonds vs. Bank Loans Outstanding
4
8
%
€0
€1,000
€2,000
€3,000
€4,000
€5,000
€6,000
€7,000
€B
illio
ns
Bonds Loans
U.S. Non-Financial Corporate
Bonds vs. Bank Loans Outstanding
4
8
%
$0
$1,500
$3,000
$4,500
$6,000
$7,500
$9,000
$ B
illio
ns
Bonds Loans
76%
24%
49%
51%
May 10, 2018 19
Robust Growth of New Rating Mandates
0
400
800
1,200
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 1Q17 1Q18
# o
f N
ew
Mandate
s
EMEA United States Rest of World
1,044
Global New Rating Mandates1
» In 1Q 2018, Moody’s new rating mandates increased to 296, up 13% from 261 in
4Q 2017 and up 39% from 213 in 1Q 2017
» Expect ~1,000 new mandates in 20182
854
1,026990
771 738
213296
+39%
1 Rated by Moody’s Investors Service.
2 New mandates estimate as of April 27, 2018.
May 10, 2018 20
1 MIS recurring revenue is typically billed annually and recognized ratably over 12 months. Recurring revenue can also be billed upfront and recognized over the life of the security.
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 1Q17 1Q18
$ M
illio
ns
Corporate Finance Structured FinanceFinancial Institutions Public, Project, & Infrastructure FinanceMIS Other
» MIS recurring revenue growth primarily driven by increased monitoring fees from new mandates in 2017
» Recurring revenue averages ~36% of total MIS revenue
MIS Recurring Revenue
As a % of MIS
revenue38% 39% 39% 39% 36%
New Rating Mandates Provide Recurring Revenue1
Growth
35% 36%
3 Moody’s Investors Service
May 10, 2018 22
35%
65%
Recurring Transaction
TTM 1Q 2018 Revenue: $2.8 billion
Moody’s Investors Service Financial Profile
Public,
Project, &
Infrastructure
Finance
15%
Financial
Institutions
15%
Corporate
Finance
50%
Structured
Finance
19%
MIS Other
1%
61%
39%
U.S. Non-U.S.
» 36% recurring revenue
» 56% recurring revenue
» 34% recurring revenue
2018 Revenue Guidance as of April 27, 2018
Global mid-single-digit % range
U.S. low-single-digit % range
Non-U.S. high-single-digit % range
Corporate Finance mid-single-digit % range
Structured Finance high-single-digit % range
Financial Institutions mid-single-digit % range
Public, Project & Infrastructure Finance low-single-digit % range
» 28% recurring revenue
May 10, 2018 23
Americas APACEMEA
» 32,500 rated
companies and
structured deals
» $34+ trillion total
debt rated
» 19,500 research
publications
» Offices in 5
countries
» 4,600 rated
companies and
structured deals
» $21+ trillion total
debt rated
» 6,300 research
publications
» Offices in 12
countries
» 2,000 rated
companies and
structured deals
» $15+ trillion total
debt rated
» 3,500 research
publications
» Offices in 7
countries
Note: Data as of December 31, 2017.
Numbers of rated entities (other than sovereigns and supranational institutions) and structured deals, research publications and event participants/activities rounded to nearest hundred.
$72+ trillionof Total Rated Debt
4,700Rated Non-Financial
Corporates
4,100Rated Financial Institutions
138Rated Sovereigns
47Rated Supranational
Institutions
450Rated Sub-Sovereigns
17,700Rated Public
Finance Issuers
1,000Rated Infrastructure &
Project Finance Issuers
11,000Rated Structured
Deals
213Rating
Methodologies
Broad Coverage Serves Global Needs
May 10, 2018 24
» We remain focused on analytical expertise and the continuous refinement of our
credit methodologies to provide predictive, predictable and transparent ratings
» Reinforces investor “demand pull”
Three-Year Cumulative Default Rates of Fundamental Rated Universe1
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
1 The data in the chart above shows the three-year cumulative default rates by rating from January 1998, through December 2017 of fundamental Moody’s rated universe globally. Rating
category is based on senior unsecured rating (or equivalent) of the issuer. Source: Moody’s Investors Service.
2 Institutional Investor Survey.
~15 Years Lead/Senior Analyst
tenure
Rating Performance Drives Investor Confidence
#1 U.S. Credit
Rating Agency
2012-20172
May 10, 2018 25
Illustrative Value of a Moody’s Rating
Example: 10 year $500 million corporate bond
$15 million in total interest expense
vs.
lifetime cost of a rating
Note: Illustrative spread differential based on feedback from syndicate desks and FBR & Co. research on Moody’s Corporation (January 2014) which stated that obtaining a Moody’s rating
typically saves approximately 30 basis points per year for investment grade issuers. Many factors go into the pricing of a bond.
$500,000,000
x 4.3%
= $21,500,000
x 10 years
= $215,000,000
Unrated Rated by Moody’s
$500,000,000
x 4.0%
= $20,000,000
x 10 years
= $200,000,000
Bond
Interest rate
Annual interest payments
Tenor
Lifetime interest expense
May 10, 2018 26
54 7283
111
141170
201
230
274
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Mar2010
Mar2011
Mar2012
Mar2013
Mar2014
Mar2015
Mar2016
Mar2017
Mar2018
Num
ber
of
Issuers
Continue to Invest in Key International Markets
Moody’s-Rated Chinese Issuers1
1 Includes rated issuers where major operations or headquarters are in Mainland China. Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan are not included.
2 Based on full year 2017 rated bond issuance (deal count) in China’s Interbank Market. Source: CCXI.
Sources: Dealogic, Moody’s Analytics, Moody’s Investors Service.
China» Successful joint venture with CCXI,
leading domestic rating agency
» CCXI provides >1,000 domestic
Chinese ratings; 34% coverage in
20172
» Cross border market rated via MIS
Hong Kong office
» China recently announced it will allow
foreign firms to provide credit rating
services in part of the domestic market
Latin America» Deepens Moody’s presence in a
dynamic and expanding market
Rest of World
» Acquired full ownership of KIS, a
leading provider of domestic credit
ratings
» Increased majority stake in ICRA to
serve growing domestic bond market
2007 2017
Emerging Asia Latin AmericaMiddle East CEE/CISAfrica
Revenue in Emerging Markets
May 10, 2018 27
OtherGreen Bond Assessment
» ~$250 billion green bond
issuance volume
forecasted for 20181
» 34 green bond
assessments assigned
as of April 2018 globally
» Servicer Quality
Assessments in
LATAM
» Private Monitored
Rating extension
» Private Rating for
Investors- Sub
sovereign
» SME ratings
through Euler-
Hermes Ratings
(4.99% ownership)
1 Source: Moody’s Investors Service.
New Non-Credit Assessments Meet Market Needs
ESG
» Dedicated ESG teams
in U.S., Europe and
Asia
» ESG research, heat
maps
» Extensive ESG
outreach & membership
May 10, 2018 28
MIS Focus Areas
x
x
x
We focus on three core
activities in MIS…
Reading &
Extracting
Publishing
&
Visualizing
Analyzing
…and incorporate new technologies into
our current processes
Natural Language
Processing
Machine Learning,
Artificial Intelligence
& Big Data
Robotic Process
Automation
Further Operationalizing Enabling Technologies
4 Moody’s Analytics
May 10, 2018 30
Research, Data and Analytics
60%
Enterprise Risk Solutions
30%
Professional Services
10%
Moody’s Analytics Financial Profile
80%
20%
Recurring Transaction
43%
57%
U.S. Non-U.S.
» > 97% recurring revenue
» 96% retention rate1
» 70% recurring revenue
» Combination of one-off contracts and
semi-recurring revenue
2018 Revenue Guidance as of April 27, 2018
Global2 mid-twenties % range
U.S. low-double-digit % range
Non-U.S. mid-thirties % range
Research, Data & Analytics2 approximately 40%
Enterprise Risk Solutions low-single-digit % range
Professional Services high-single-digit % range
1 Excludes Bureau van Dijk.
2 Organic MA global revenue is expected to increase in the low-double-digit percent range and organic RD&A revenue is expected to increase in the mid-teens percent range.
TTM 1Q 2018 Revenue: $1.5 billion
May 10, 2018 31
Moody’s Analytics has Several Platforms for Growth
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
$1,600
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
$ M
illio
ns
Moody’s Analytics
2017 Revenue: $1,430m
2008 – 2017 CAGR: +11%
(~62% organic)
Professional Services
2017 Revenue: $149m
2008 – 2017 CAGR: +32%
(~15% organic)
Enterprise Risk Solutions
2017 Revenue: $449m
2008 – 2017 CAGR: +16%
(~67% organic)
Research, Data & Analytics
2017 Revenue: $833m
2008 – 2017 CAGR: +8%
(~74% organic)
Revenue More Than Doubled Since Inception
Note: Individual line of business revenues may not foot due to rounding.
May 10, 2018 32
» €3 billion acquisition closed on August 10, 2017
» Bureau van Dijk is a leading aggregator and distributor of
private company business intelligence and data, serving
over 6,000 unique institutions worldwide
» Extends MA’s reach beyond financial institutions and
insurance
» Adds capacity to MA’s attractive RD&A business through
extensive customer base and geographic footprint
» Combination anticipated to deliver significant synergies.
Expect ~$45 million in annual revenue and expense
synergies by 2019, increasing to ~$80 million by 20211
» Integration proceeding according to plan with focus on
implementing controls appropriate for a unit of a listed U.S.
company while delivering on strategy and business plan.
1 Anticipated annual revenue and expense synergies, as of April 27, 2018.
2 Based on IFRS.
Long History of Profitable Growth2
€109
€272
€48
€139
Revenue EBITDA
Bureau van Dijk Acquisition
(€ in millions)
Bureau van Dijk aggregates, standardizes and distributes an extensive private company
data set
May 10, 2018 33
Diversified IP Network1 High Value Customer Solutions
Data from 160+
Information Providers
Publicly Available Data
Other Data Sourced
By Bureau van Dijk
280 Million Private Companies
67 Thousand Public Companies
170 Million Director Contacts
1 Data as of December 31, 2017.
Bureau van Dijk Collects and Enhances Information
to Deliver a Market Leading Global Dataset
Compliance and Financial Crime
Corporate Finance and M&A
Credit Risk
Transfer Pricing
Business Development
Data Management
May 10, 2018 34
Expansion of ratings coverage
Production of insightful credit
analysis
New customers in
geographies with developing
debt capital markets
Expansion of data sets and
delivery options
Strong customer retention
RD&A: Subscription Growth Driven by Retention, Upgrades and Pricing & New Sales
Full
Ye
ar
201
5F
ull
Yea
r 2
01
6
95.4% 110.2%8.0%6.8%
Retained Base Upgrades and Price New Sales Business Base
96.3% 110.5%7.2%7.0%
Retained Base Upgrades and Price New Sales Business Base
Note: The sales growth attributions presented on this slide are related to RD&A subscription sales on a constant currency basis and excludes Bureau van Dijk. Upgrades reflect
amendments to existing customer contracts. New Sales reflect new contracts with new and existing customers.
Subscription Sales Growth(constant currency)
Full
Ye
ar
2017
95.5% 109.4%8.2%5.7%
Retained Base Upgrades and Price New Sales Business Base
May 10, 2018 35
ERS Solutions Address Diverse Needs and
Customers
Credit Risk & Actuarial
AnalyticsHelps risk managers assess and
manage current and future exposures
across all asset classes
Accounting Calculation &
ReportingProduces key calculations and reports
required by many of the world’s accounting
standards
Regulatory Calculation &
ReportingGenerates key calculations and reports
required by many of the world’s financial
regulations
Credit Assessment &
Origination Automates financial spreading
and credit scoring, decision
making and monitoring
Portfolio & Capital StrategyHelps firms to improve portfolio
performance and meet regulatory and
economic capital requirements
Asset & Liability ManagementIntegrates ALM, liquidity risk management,
funds transfer pricing and regulatory reporting
capabilities into a seamless enterprise platform
May 10, 2018 36
1 Renewables revenue includes subscriptions and maintenance.
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
$450
$500
$ M
illio
ns
Renewable Total
TTM Revenue
1
ERS Renewable Products Drive Growth
Prior to 2016: Growth from installed software
» One-time projects – installed software & services
» Bespoke projects accelerated development of IP
» 61% of revenue from renewable products in 2015
2016+: SaaS & subscriptions drive growth
» Expanding SaaS and subscription product array
» Subscriptions generate lower Annual Contract Value in
short run, but better Lifetime Customer Value
» 69% of revenue from renewable products in 2017
Key Growth Drivers
» New accounting standards require Moody’s expertise at
banks and Insurance companies
– CECL, IFRS17
» Moody’s software and analytics enable customers’ to
realize digitization and automation initiatives
5 Conclusion
May 10, 2018 38
Why Invest in Moody’s?
» We strive to be the world’s most respected authority serving risk-sensitive financial
markets
» We have had strong revenue and earnings growth, as well as cash flow conversion
– 2013 – 2017 revenue CAGR of 9%
– 2013 – 2017 adjusted diluted EPS1 CAGR of 15%
– 2013 – 2017 free cash flow1 conversion rate of ~28%
» We are committed to returning capital to our shareholders
– 2013 – 2017 returned $5.4 billion, or 114% of free cash flow, to shareholders via share
repurchases and dividends
» We will selectively invest in strategic growth opportunities
– Leverage brand to extend our relevance in financial markets
– Expand our product offerings and geographic influence
1 Adjusted diluted EPS is an adjusted measure. See appendix for reconciliations from adjusted financial measures to U.S. GAAP.
6 Appendix
May 10, 2018 41
Corporate Finance: Revenue and Issuance
1 Historical data has been adjusted to conform with current information and excludes intercompany revenue.
2 Other includes: monitoring, commercial paper, medium term notes, and ICRA.
3 Sources: Moody’s Analytics, Dealogic. U.S. and Non-U.S. Speculative-Grade Bank Loans represent only Moody’s rated speculative-grade bank loans. Non-U.S. Speculative-Grade
Bank Loan Origination data available starting 2016. Note: Debt issuance categories do not directly correspond to Moody’s revenue categorization.
$103 $105 $109 $108 $113 $116 $124 $126 $131
$66 $79 $61 $56$72 $85 $79 $66
$81$30
$51 $59$41
$64$63 $63 $64
$58$41
$69 $71$73
$104 $92 $85$78
$108
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18
$ M
illio
ns
Revenue1: Mix by Quarter
Other Investment Grade Speculative Grade Bank Loans
$178 $216 $275 $312 $363 $420 $421 $425 $478$119 $109$137
$197$193
$230$305 $262
$301
$84$143
$120
$194$229
$219$183
$181
$254
$28$96
$120
$155
$212
$242 $204 $254
$359
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
$1,600
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
$ M
illio
ns
Revenue1: Mix by Year
Other Investment Grade Speculative Grade Bank Loans
$317 $339 $320$215
$351 $341 $320 $269 $309
$53$103 $91
$65
$123 $104 $99$100
$98$71
$99 $120
$124
$206$160
$138$134
$165$8
$25 $39
$48
$84$60
$44
$59$67
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18
$ B
illi
on
s
Issuance3: Mix by Quarter
Non-U.S. Speculative-Grade Bank Loans
U.S. Speculative-Grade Bank Loans
Global Non-Financial Speculative-Grade Bonds
Global Non-Financial Investment-Grade Bonds
$1,129
$641 $750$1,125 $1,073 $1,043 $1,120 $1,192 $1,270
$221
$293$250
$329 $411 $405 $329 $311$422
$79
$273 $330
$353$504 $425 $354 $414
$638$120
$ 247
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
$ B
illi
on
s
Issuance3: Mix by Year
Non-U.S. Speculative-Grade Bank LoansU.S. Speculative-Grade Bank LoansGlobal Non-Financial Speculative-Grade BondsGlobal Non-Financial Investment-Grade Bonds
2
2
May 10, 2018 42
36% 38% 39% 38% 32% 32% 35% 38% 34% 35%
19% 21%27% 23%
20% 24% 22% 20% 22% 21%
23% 20%16%
16%
18%18% 18% 19% 18% 15%
21% 22% 18% 23%29% 26% 24% 23% 26% 29%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 FY17 1Q18
Other Investment Grade Speculative Grade Bank Loans
73% 70% 69% 68% 74% 74% 73% 70% 73% 73%
27% 30% 31% 32% 26% 26% 27% 30% 27% 27%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 FY17 1Q18
Revenue1: Distribution by Recurring vs. Transaction
Transaction Recurring
Corporate Finance: Revenue Diversification
1 Historical data has been adjusted to conform with current information and excludes intercompany revenue.
2 Other includes: monitoring, commercial paper, medium term notes, and ICRA.
Percentages have been rounded and may not total to 100%.
38% 38% 32% 32% 31%38% 33% 37% 35% 35%
62% 62% 68% 68% 69%62% 67% 63% 65% 65%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 FY17 1Q18
Revenue1: Distribution by Geography
Non - U.S. U.S.
Revenue1: Distribution by Product
2
May 10, 2018 43
Structured Finance: Revenue and Issuance
$20 $27 $23 $24 $23 $24 $23 $27 $28
$21$21
$19 $25 $20 $22 $22$25 $24
$28$33 $33
$40
$29$30 $38
$46$33
$22
$30$29
$42
$27
$42$46
$50
$43
$1
$1$0
$1
$0
$1$1
$1
$1
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18
$ M
illio
ns
Revenue1: Mix by Quarter
ABS RMBS CREF Structured Credit Other
1 Historical data has been adjusted to conform with current information and excludes intercompany revenue.
2 Sources: AB Alert, CM Alert, Moody’s Corporation. Debt issuance categories do not directly correspond to Moody’s revenue categorization.
Notes: ABS (Asset Backed Securitization) includes asset-backed commercial paper and long-term asset-backed securities. RMBS (Residential Mortgage Backed Securitization) includes
covered bonds. CREF (Commercial Real Estate Finance) includes commercial mortgage-backed securities, real estate finance, commercial real estate CDOs, and real estate investment
trusts (REITs). Structured Credit includes CLOs and CDOs.
$101 $91 $107 $110 $98 $92 $91 $94 $97
$59 $65$90 $85
$73 $76 $81 $85 $90$46 $53
$70 $95 $116 $122 $140 $133 $143$99 $82
$78$91 $96
$137$135 $122
$165
$0 $0
$0$0 $0
$0$2 $2
$2
$0
$200
$400
$600
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
$ M
illio
ns
Revenue1: Mix by Year
ABS RMBS CREF Structured Credit Other
$296 $220$319 $335 $317 $319 $292 $298 $337
$355$396
$371$231 $189 $238
$200 $204$254
$30 $24$36
$73
$120$114
$117 $94$120
$93
$59 $39 $65
$94$159
$132 $116
$136
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
$ B
illi
on
s
Issuance2: Mix by Year
ABS RMBS CREF Structured Credit
$62$88 $68 $80 $74 $88
$67$107 $102
$58
$61
$36$48 $47
$75
$59
$73$62$21
$16
$25
$33$18
$26
$34
$41$26
$12$24
$25
$56$14
$32$42
$48
$36
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18
$ B
illi
on
s
Issuance2: Mix by Quarter
ABS RMBS CREF Structured Credit
May 10, 2018 44
Structured Finance: Revenue Diversification
60% 62% 64% 62% 57% 63% 66% 70% 65% 64%
40% 38% 36% 38% 43% 37% 34% 30% 35% 36%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 FY17 1Q18
Revenue1: Distribution by Recurring vs. Transaction
Transaction Recurring
36% 34% 31% 33% 35% 32% 30% 29% 31% 35%
64% 66% 69% 67% 65% 68% 70% 71% 69% 65%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 FY17 1Q18
Revenue1: Distribution by Geography
Non - U.S. U.S.
26% 22% 20% 22% 23% 20% 18% 18% 19% 22%
19%18% 18% 19% 20%
19%17% 17% 18% 19%
30%28% 31% 31% 29%
25% 29% 31% 29% 26%
25%32% 31% 28% 27%
35% 36% 33% 33% 33%
0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 FY17 1Q18
ABS RMBS CREF Structured Credit Other
Revenue1: Distribution by Product
1 Historical data has been adjusted to conform with current information and excludes intercompany revenue.
Percentages have been rounded and may not total to 100%.
Notes: ABS (Asset Backed Securitization) includes asset-backed commercial paper and long-term asset-backed securities. RMBS (Residential Mortgage Backed Securitization) includes
covered bonds. CREF (Commercial Real Estate Finance) includes commercial mortgage-backed securities, real estate finance, commercial real estate CDOs, and real estate investment
trusts (REITs). Structured Credit includes CLOs and CDOs.
May 10, 2018 45
Financial Institutions: Revenue and Issuance
$59 $60 $63 $59$79 $70 $70
$80 $77
$30 $24 $26$23
$25$23 $24
$30 $28$4$4
$4$4
$5$6 $5
$6 $6$3$3
$3$3
$3$3 $4
$3 $3
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18
$ M
illio
ns
Revenue1: Mix by Quarter
Banking Insurance Managed Investments Other
$176 $192 $205 $228 $234 $242 $244 $240$300
$66$69 $73
$79 $89 $92 $96 $102
$102
$16$18
$17$19 $16 $19 $16 $17
$22
$0$0
$0$0 $0 $2 $9 $10
$13
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
$450
$500
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
$ M
illio
ns
Revenue1: Mix by Year
Banking Insurance Managed Investments Other
$1,764
$1,340 $1,266 $1,312$1,072
$1,247 $1,194 $1,187 $1,230
$80
$87 $79$137
$161
$197$136 $112
$180
$0
$400
$800
$1,200
$1,600
$2,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
$ B
illi
on
s
Issuance2: Mix by Year
Global Speculative Grade Financial Corporate Bonds
Global Investment Grade Financial Corporate Bonds
1 Historical data has been adjusted to conform with current information and excludes intercompany revenue.
2 Sources: Moody’s Analytics, Dealogic. Note: Debt issuance categories do not directly correspond to Moody’s revenue categorization.
$369$318 $284
$216
$419
$294 $278$239
$409
$26
$29$38
$19
$45
$47$39
$49
$39
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18
$ B
illi
on
s
Issuance2: Mix by Quarter
Global Speculative Grade Financial Corporate Bonds
Global Investment Grade Financial Corporate Bonds
May 10, 2018 46
Financial Institutions: Revenue Diversification
1 Historical data has been adjusted to conform with current information and excludes intercompany revenue.
Percentages have been rounded and may not total to 100%.
35% 35% 37% 37%48% 43% 40%
48% 45% 44%
65% 65% 63% 63%52% 57% 60%
52% 55% 56%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 FY17 1Q18
Revenue1: Distribution by Recurring vs. Transaction
Transaction Recurring
58% 60% 57% 57% 55% 57% 60% 57% 57% 58%
42% 40% 43% 43% 45% 43% 40% 43% 43% 42%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 FY17 1Q18
Revenue1: Distribution by Geography
Non - U.S. U.S.
69% 68% 67% 65%70% 69% 69% 67% 69% 67%
26% 26% 26% 28%22% 23% 23% 25% 23% 25%
5% 5% 4% 5% 5% 6% 4% 5% 5% 5%
0% 1% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 FY17 1Q18
Banking Insurance Managed Investments Other
Revenue1: Distribution by Product
May 10, 2018 47
$142 $159 $156 $181 $174 $177 $202 $225 $218
$104$113 $121
$142 $167 $181$174
$188 $213
$0$0 $0
$0$0
$0$0
$0$0
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
$450
$500
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
$ M
illi
on
s
Revenue1: Mix by Year
Public Finance and SovereignProject & Infrastructure FinanceOther
1 Historical data has been adjusted to conform with current information and excludes intercompany revenue.
2 Global Rated Project & Infrastructure Finance available starting in 2016 and represents Moody’s rated issuance.
Sources: Thomson SDC, Moody’s Corporation. Note: Debt issuance categories do not directly correspond to Moody’s revenue categorization.
$355 $374 $248
$313 $302 $307 $364 $408 $375
$207 $266
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
$800
$900
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
$ B
illi
on
s
Issuance2: Mix by Year
Rated Global Project & Infrastructure Finance Bonds
Long-Term Rated U.S. Muni Bonds
Public, Project and Infrastructure: Revenue and Issuance
$94$114 $105 $95 $82 $95 $80
$127
$58
$26
$72
$50 $59 $57
$68 $75
$66
$54
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18
$ B
illi
on
s
Issuance2: Mix by Quarter
Rated Global Project & Infrastructure Finance Bonds
Long-Term Rated U.S. Muni Bonds
$55 $55 $60 $54 $53 $53 $49$62
$47
$37$57 $45 $49 $45 $51 $60
$57
$46
$0
$0$0 $0
$0$0
$0$0
$0
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18
$ M
illio
ns
Revenue1: Mix by Quarter
Public Finance and SovereignProject & Infrastructure FinanceOther
May 10, 2018 48
1 Historical data has been adjusted to conform with current information and excludes intercompany revenue.
Percentages have been rounded and may not total to 100%.
60% 58% 60% 63% 60% 64% 65% 68% 65%58%
40% 42% 40% 37% 40% 36% 35% 32% 35%42%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 FY17 1Q18
Revenue1: Distribution by Recurring vs. Transaction
Transaction Recurring
37% 37% 35% 33% 36% 37% 42% 38% 38% 43%
63% 63% 65% 67% 64% 63% 58% 62% 62% 57%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 FY17 1Q18
Revenue1: Distribution by Geography
Non - U.S. U.S.
51% 49% 54% 54% 54% 51% 45%52% 51% 50%
49% 51% 46% 46% 46% 49% 55%48% 49% 50%
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 FY17 1Q18
Public Finance and Sovereign Project & Infrastructure Finance Other
Revenue1: Distribution by Product
Public, Project and Infrastructure: Revenue Diversification
May 10, 2018 49
Moody’s Analytics: Financial Overview
$165 $168 $168 $167 $175 $181$218
$258 $269
$90 $98 $102 $130 $96 $97
$113
$143 $100
$37 $38 $36$37
$36 $36
$38
$40$38
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
$450
$500
1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18
$ M
illio
ns
Revenue1: Mix by Quarter
1 Historical data has been adjusted to conform with current information and excludes intercompany revenue. Research, Data and Analytics includes Bureau van
Dijk revenue beginning from the acquisition close date, August 10, 2017.
Percentages have been rounded and may not total to 100%.
$411 $419 $445 $483 $520 $572 $626 $668$833
$151 $181 $196$243 $263
$329$374
$419
$449
$11 $19 $62 $108$119
$168$150
$147
$149
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
$1,600
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
$ M
illio
ns
Revenue1: Mix by Year
Professional Services
Enterprise Risk Solutions
Research, Data and
Analytics
23% 27% 26% 25% 21% 20% 21% 24% 22% 15%
77% 73% 74% 75% 79% 80% 79% 76% 78% 85%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 FY17 1Q18
Transaction Recurring
55% 56% 54% 51% 49% 50% 56% 56% 55% 60%
45% 44% 46% 49% 51% 50% 44% 44% 45% 40%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 FY17 1Q18
Revenue1: Distribution by Geography
Non-U.S. U.S.
58% 54% 54% 54% 57% 58% 59% 59% 58%66%
29% 31% 33% 34% 31% 31% 31% 32% 31%25%
13% 16% 13% 12% 12% 11% 10% 9% 10% 9%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 FY17 1Q18
Revenue1: Distribution by Product
Revenue1: Distribution by Recurring vs. Transaction
May 10, 2018 50
MIS MA Non-U.S.U.S.
Corporate Finance
33%
Structured Finance
12%
Financial Institutions
10%
Public, Project & Infrastructure
10%
MIS Other1%
Research, Data &
Analytics21%
Enterprise Risk Solutions
10%
Professional Services
3%
Revenue is Diversified by Business, Geography and Type
TTM 1Q18 Revenue by Business
United States54%
EMEA29%
Asia-Pacific11%
Americas6%
TTM 1Q18 Revenue by Geography
TTM 1Q18 Revenue by Type
51%35%
80%
49%65%
20%
MCO MIS MA
Recurring Transaction
May 10, 2018 51
Moody’s Corporate Speculative Grade Credit Cycle
Gauge
1 North America long-term average: LSI: from 2002, B3-Neg: from 2007, Refunding: from 2007, Downgrade / Update Ratio: from 2008, CQ score: from 2011, Default rate: from 1990.
2 Europe long-term average: LSI: from 2012, CQ Score: from 2011, B3-Neg: from 2011, Downgrade / Update Ratio: from 2009, Default rate: from 1999.
3 Trailing twelve months (TTM) ended March 31, 2018.
Source: Moody’s Investors Service.
Improving Neutral Trending Worse
Latest
Metric
1-Year
Ago
Long-
Term
Average1
Record
Worst
Latest
Metric
1-Year
Ago
Long-
Term
Average2
Record
Worst
Liquidity Stress Index 2.8% 5.3% 6.6% 20.8% 6.5% 9.9% 11.6% 18.5%
B3-Neg / Lower 190 243 195 291 40 57 41 60
% B3-Neg / Lower 12.7% 16.7% 15.1% 26.1% 8.6% 13.3% 11.7% 17.2%
3-Year Refunding Index 3.8x 3.8x 6.2x 1.5x N/A N/A N/A N/A
Downgrade / Upgrade Ratio3 0.8x 0.6x 3.4x 11.7x 0.5x 0.9x 2.4x 20.5x
Covenant Quality Score 4.32 4.12 4.06 4.52 3.56 3.39 3.22 4.85
Default Rate (forecast) 1.7% 3.9% 4.7% 15.0% 1.0% 2.4% 3.7% 13.0%
North America Europe
May 10, 2018 52
Moody’s Global Presence
1 As of March 31, 2018.
2 As of March 31, 2017.
U.S. employees non-U.S. employees total employees2
U.S. employees non-U.S. employees total employees1
3,589 8,445 12,034
2018
3,411 7,247 10,658
2017
AmericasArgentina Mexico
Brazil Panama
Canada Peru
Costa Rica United States
Europe, Middle East & AfricaAustria Poland
Belgium Portugal
Cyprus Russia
Czech Republic Saudi Arabia
Denmark Slovakia
France South Africa
Germany Spain
Ireland Sweden
Israel Switzerland
Italy UAE
Mauritius United Kingdom
Netherlands
Asia-PacificAustralia Malaysia
China Nepal
Hong Kong Singapore
India Sri Lanka
Japan Thailand
Korea
May 10, 2018 53
Corporate Social Responsibility: Opening the Door
to a Better FutureThree Focus Areas, All Supported by Our Colleagues
Sharing Our Passion and Purpose With the World
Empowering employees in communities all over the world to change people’s lives with their
time, talent and resources. Provide more opportunities through Moody’s TeamUp®, skills-
based and pro bono volunteering, nonprofit board service and employee giving programs.
Activating an Environmentally
Sustainable Future
Developing internal awareness in our
workplaces through the Environmental
Task Force, and external tools and
services, such as the MIS ESG Initiative
and Moody’s Green Bond Assessment.
Helping Young People Reach
Their Potential
Opening greater opportunities for
untapped students and young adults
ages 15-24 to prepare for successful
careers in technology, economics
and finance, and developing a
diverse & inclusive talent pipeline.
Empowering people with
financial knowledge
Changing the lives of people all over
the world—especially women and
untapped groups—and helping them
grow their businesses by acquiring
the tools and know-how to navigate
in the financial world. Includes
Reshape TomorrowTM, our signature
financial empowerment initiative.
May 10, 2018 54
Reconciliation of Adjusted Financial Measures to
GAAPAdjusted Operating Income and Adjusted Operating Margin Reconciliation1
(in $ millions) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 TTM 1Q18
Operating Income $1,248.0 $1,449.8 $1,490.7 $650.9 $1,820.8 $1,864.9
Operating Margin 42.0% 43.5% 42.8% 18.1% 43.3% 42.8%
Add Adjustment:
Depreciation & Amortization 93.4 95.6 113.5 126.7 158.3 174.8
Acquisition-Related Expenses - - - - 22.5 23.3
Restructuring - - - 12.0 - -
Goodwill Impairment Charge - - - - - -
Settlement Charge - - - 863.8 - -
Adjusted Operating Income $1,341.4 $1,545.4 $1,604.2 $1,653.4 $2,001.6 $2,063.1
Adjusted Operating Margin 45.1% 46.3% 46.0% 45.9% 47.6% 47.4%
Moody's Corporation Operating Margin Guidance Reconciliation
1 2013 - 2017 operating and adjusted operating income have been restated to conform to the new presentation of pension accounting.
2 Guidance as of April 27, 2018.
2018F2
Projected Operating Margin - GAAP 43% - 44%
Projected impact from Depreciation & Amortization Approximately 4.0%
Projected impact from Acquisition-Related Expenses Approximately 0.5%
Projected Adjusted Operating Margin Approximately 48%
Free Cash Flow Reconciliation(in $ millions) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018F2
Net cash flows from operating activities $965.6 $1,017.3 $1,198.1 $1,259.2 $747.5 ~$1,700
Less: Capital expenditures 42.3 74.6 89.0 115.2 90.6 ~$120
Free Cash Flow $923.3 $942.7 $1,109.1 $1,144.0 $656.9 ~$1,600
May 10, 2018 55
Reconciliation of Adjusted Financial Measures to
GAAP (cont.)
Moody's Corporation Diluted EPS Reconciliation
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018F1
Diluted EPS - GAAP $3.60 $4.61 $4.63 $1.36 $5.15 $7.20 - $7.40
Legacy Tax (0.09) (0.03) (0.03) - - -
Impact of Litigation Settlement 0.14 - - $3.59 - -
ICRA Gain - (0.37) - - - -
FX Gain due to Subsidiary Liquidation - - - ($0.18) - -
Restructuring - - - $0.04 - -CCXI Gain - - - - ($0.31) -
Acquisition-Related Expenses - - - - $0.10 ~$0.05
Purchase Price Hedge Gain - - - - ($0.37) -
Net Acquisition-Related Intangible
Amortization Expenses$0.09 $0.10 $0.11 $0.13 $0.23 ~$0.40
Transition tax related to U.S. tax reform- - - -
$1.28 -
Net Impact of U.S./European tax change
on deferred taxes- - - - ($0.01) -
Adjusted Diluted EPS $3.74 $4.31 $4.71 $4.94 $6.07 $7.65 - $7.85
Note: Table may not sum to total due to rounding.
1 Guidance as of April 27, 2018.
Investor Relations
ir.moodys.com
moodys.com
May 10, 2018 57
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