1H 2020 IFRS Results - eurochemgroup.com · THIS PRESENTATION HAS BEEN PREPARED BY EUROCHEM GROUP...
Transcript of 1H 2020 IFRS Results - eurochemgroup.com · THIS PRESENTATION HAS BEEN PREPARED BY EUROCHEM GROUP...
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1H20 Highlights
4
MARKETS
Pressure on pricing environment across all fertilizer segments in 1H20
Fertilizers turned out to be resilient to COVD-19 outbreak
Fertilizers industry was one of the less affected by the global crisis, with farmer economics proved to
be more favorable
BUSINESS
CONTINUITY.
COVID-19 RESPONE
Integrated business model and full Group’s vertical integration contributes to resilience in turbulent
global environment
Preventative risk management measures incorporated all through the business chain from the very start
of the pandemic outbreak
All plants operated as normal, no significant disruptions incurred
Health and safety remains the Group’s priority
FINANCIAL
POSITION
Sales $3.0 bn with sales volumes 12.5 MMT, 6% up y-o-y
Customer base remained well diversified across key agricultural centers with an increase of shipments
to both Americas
EBITDA at $830 mn, +1% y-o-y and EBITDA margin up 1pp to 28%
Free cash flow positive of $338 mn, +148% y-o-y
Net covenant debt reduced by 6% to $4.0 bn with Net Debt / LTM EBITDA lowered to 2.67x
Credit ratings: S&P maintained BB- rating with positive outlook during the global lockdown period
caused by the pandemic
CORPORATE
DEVELOPMENTS
1,050 KMT KCl produced at UKK in 1H20
Sylvinite layer reached at VGK
512 KMT of ammonia produced at ECNW
RUB35 bn 5-year Ruble Bonds issued in April 2020, reopening RUB bond market for other issuers
Resilient Business Model
5Source: Company information
Note: (1) Phosphate and complex fertilizers; (2) Nitrogen mineral fertilizers, organic synthesis products and ammonia; (3) Represents theoretical capacity as certain
production units can produce several types of products, while final production volumes ultimately depend on how the production units are configured; (4) Post full
ramp-up of both the phases of the two Potash projects
Feedstocks/
Resources Production Logistics Sales
Ammonia (NH3)
100% self-sufficient
Apatite / Phosphate rock
Up to 70% self-sufficient
K2O resources base
100% self-sufficient
3 Nitrogen
fertilizer plants
c.12.9 MMT of nitrogen capacity(2)(3)
3 Phosphate
fertilizer plants
c.4.3 MMT of phosphates capacity(1)(3)
2 Potash mines/plants
c.8.2 MMT
of potash capacity for both phases(4)
Maritime transhipment facilities
in Russia, Estonia, Belgium
>7,000 rail cars and 44 locomotives
> 100 countriesSales distribution
~ 10,000 Direct sales customers
With access to highest
quality phosrock globally
Cost leadership through
vertical integration
• N: 1st quartile on global urea cash cost curve
• P: 1st-2nd quartile on global DAP cash
cost curve
• K: One of the lowest cost potash
producers globally
Production growth by investments in
low-cost projects
• Potash projects are expected to allow us to
become a leading low-cost producer and
maximize internal processing of potash
• Increasing competitive advantages with further
product diversification
Excellent proximity
to customers
• Worldwide distribution footprint (LatAm, Europe,
Russia, US, Asia)
• Sell at a premium and exploit seasonality
patterns via own distribution platform
• Obtain valuable market knowledge from direct
end-user contact
• EuroChem is one of just three companies worldwide with direct access to raw materials in all nutrient groups
• Full vertical integration together with easy access to natural gas, and self-sufficiency in ammonia and potash, give us a unique cost advantage
$200
$225
$250
$275
$300
Jan/17 Jul/17 Jan/18 Jul/18 Jan/19 Jul/19 Jan/20 Jul/20
MOP (FOB Baltic sea, spot) MOP(CFR India, contract) MOP(CFR China, contract)
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
Jan/17 Jul/17 Jan/18 Jul/18 Jan/19 Jul/19 Jan/20 Jul/20
Ammonia (FOB Yuzhny) Prilled urea (FOB Yuzhny)
$250
$300
$350
$400
$450
Jan/17 Jul/17 Jan/18 Jul/18 Jan/19 Jul/19 Jan/20 Jul/20
MAP (FOB Baltic sea) DAP(FOB Black Sea) NPK 16:16:16 (FSU Baltic)
Fertilizer Price Dynamics
Nitrogen
Phosphates
MOP
Prices for Key Products
• Nitrogen. Ammonia price softening by 10% since end of 2019 on
the back of industrial ammonia demand weakening and lower gas
price environment. Urea followed the same downward pressure with
seasonal recoveries for spring application
• Phosphates. MAP prices continued to touch their historical lows
with support gained by production levels reduction due to pandemic
outbreak and other voluntary curtailments across the industry. MAP
prices on average were 14% down vs. end of 2019. Still, producers
got cost advantage with attractive sulphur price levels
• Potash. MOP prices were under pressure with the delay in Chinese
contract signing, record stock build-ups and unimplemented
announced production curtailments. However, the latest supply
contract with China at $220/t gave signs of potash market recovery
Average Market Prices
US$/t1H20 2019 ∆
1H20
MAX MIN
Ammonia (FOB Yuzhny) 210 233 -10% 224 182
Prilled urea (FOB Yuzhny) 213 239 -11% 229 200
MAP (FOB Baltic sea) 292 339 -14% 307 261
MOP (FOB Baltic sea, spot) 214 265 -19% 239 202
Iron Ore (63,5% Fe, CFR China) 93 96 -3% 109 82
Source: Company data, CRU, Fertecon; prices are quoted as US$ per tonne
7
Market Backdrop
Sales Evolution
8
Europe 26%
Latin America21%
North America20%
Russia 14%
Asia Pacific12%
Others 7%
0.20
0.27
0.58
0.57
0.54
0.89
0.19
0.37
0.42
0.59
0.65
0.80
Others
Asia Pacific
Russia
NorthAmerica
LatinAmerica
Europe
1H20
1H19
• Fertilizer sales volumes 9.2 MMT, 19% up y-o-y. The major
driver was new production from UKK potash plant, ECNW
ammonia facility and sales of 3rd parties
• Nitrogen volumes up 4% with urea sales (+8%) being the key
driver
• Complex fertilizers sales volumes showed a 22% increase with
revenues up 6%, one of the most resilient product groups in
volatile market conditions
• Potash sales rose to 1.0 MMT and its share in total fertilizers
sales increased to 11%
• Sales to LatAm was one of the major drivers in 1H20
performance, which improved by 20% and 39% in value and
volume terms, respectively
• EuroChem’s distribution and logistics capabilities were not
affected by COVID-19
Sales Breakdown by Region
$ bn
Overview
EuroChem &
3rd Party Products
1H20 1H19∆,
y-o-y
1H20 1H19∆,
y-o-yKMT $ mn
Nitrogen products 4,898 4,693 4% 1,086 1,156 -6%
Phosphate products & complex
fertilizers, incl.:3,338 2,679 25% 1,151 1,113 3%
Phosphate fertilizers 1,453 1,098 32% 493 485 2%
Complex fertilizers 1,694 1,390 22% 576 542 6%
Potash fertilizers 1,002 389 158% 275 146 88%
Total fertilizer sales 9,238 7,761 19% 2,512 2,416 4%
Mining products 2,346 3,016 -22% 201 261 -23%
Industrial products & other sales 873 997 -12% 293 369 -21%
TOTAL, incl.: 12,45711,774 6% 3,006 3,046 -1%
3rd party products 2,711 2,048 32% 811 695 17%
0.74
1.44
3.58
1.77
1.50
2.75
0.74
2.41
2.30
1.97
2.10
2.95
KMT
Sh
are
* , a
s o
f J
un
-20
47%
+20% +39%
+3% +11%
* as a % of sales in $
Potash Distribution
1,050
1,002
Producedat UKKSold
KM
T
40%
25%
20%
10%Latin America
North America
Europe
Asia
Russia
Africa
Usolskiy Potash Project
• 1,050 KMT KCl produced in 1H20, namely ~85%
granulated MOP
• 2020 maximum design capacity estimated at 2.3 MMT with
a possible upgrade to 2.7-2.9MMT for Phase 1
• ~$71 mn invested in UKK development in 1H20
• Potash from UKK is sold through our own distribution
platform that mitigates potential pressure on the markets
Projected capacity
CAPEX evolution
3.2
2.340.33
0.53
Capex spent as ofJun 30, 2020
Phase 1 Phase 2 Total Capex
$ b
nM
OP
, M
MT
Project Overview
10
2.3
0.4-0.6
1+ 3.7-3.9+
Phase 1 Phase 1.1 Phase 2 Total capacity
VolgaKaliy Potash Project
• $116 mn invested in VGK in 1H20
• Mine development continues, with sylvinite layer reached
• The beneficiation plant is ready for operations in test mode to
assure proper grades and MOP quality as well as to recover
ore levels
CAPEX evolution
4.1
2.80.3
1.0
Capex spent as ofJun 30, 2020
Phase 1 Phase 2 Total Capex
$ b
n Phase 2
optional
11
Project Overview
819830
118
36
43 47
129
-325
-38
H1 2019 Prices Variable prod.costs
Effects of FXrates
H1 202050
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
Jan
-19
Ap
r-1
9
Jul-
19
Oct
-19
Jan
-20
Ap
r-2
0
Jul-
20
P&L Analysis
Source: Company information, 1H2020 IFRS, CBR (average exchange rates)
• 1H20 sales almost flat y-o-y due to the down-cycle of the
fertilizer industry. Sales volumes improvement by 6% moved
revenues to $3 bn
• US$ accounted for 57% of sales, EUR – 18%, RUB – 14%
with 11% attributable to other non-functional currencies
• Strong EBITDA of $830 mn, 1% up. ECNW’s contribution to
EBITDA in 1H20 – $39 mn, twice higher vs 1H19
• RUB/USD exchange rate depreciated by 6% in 1H20 y-o-y &
facilitated EBITDA performance
• Raw material costs, accounting for 28% of COGS, -14% y-o-y,
mainly attributable to 3rd party ammonia consumption reduction
after the launch of ECNW
1H20 1H19∆,
y-o-y
Sales, $ mn 3,006 3,046 -1%
OPP 2,195 2,351 -7%
TPP 811 695 +17%
Cost of sales, $ mn -1,866 -1,823 2%
Gross Profit 1,140 1,224 -7%
Gross Profit Margin, % 38% 40% -2%
EBITDA, $ mn 830 819 1%
EBITDA Margin, % 28% 27% +1 pp
USD/RUB Exchange Rate
Revenue
-$171 mn
Costs
+$181 mn
EBITDA Bridge 1H20 vs 1H19
Own sales
volumes
& mix
Other
sales
(incl.
TPP)
Fixed costs
(ex. FX
effects)
Other
items, net
$ m
n
1H19
$1 = RUB 65.1
1H20
$1 = RUB 69.36% YoY RUB
depreciation
Highlights
13
830
714
338
10
(53)(73)
(376)
EBITDA Change inNWC
Tax paid Other OCF ICF FCF
Cash Flow Evolution
14
15% 23% 28%28%
0
400
800
1,200
1,600
2017 2018 2019 1H20
Other
ECNW
Usolskiy
VolgaKaliy
567714
464381
136
338
1H19 1H20
OCF Capex FCF
Source: Company information, 1H2020 IFRS
Note: (1) – FCF is calculated as OCF minus ICF as defined in IFRS
950
1,490
1,111
OCF/CAPEX
• Operating cash flow increased by 26% y-o-y to $714 mn
• In 1H20 commencement of net working capital release in
1H20 (+$10 mn) after a period of investments in both
Americas
• Capital expenditure decreased 18% due to eased
investment cycle and prudent approach to capital injections
on the back of COVID-19 pandemic
• OCF cover capex requirements almost by twice
• For the third consecutive reporting period EuroChem
is FCF positive. FCF $338 mn, +148% y-o-y
Cash Flow Bridge(1) FCF (1) Analysis
CAPEX Dynamics
1.2
1.9
$ m
n
$ m
n$ m
n
Overview
381
+26% -18% +148% +0.7x
1,116
848
1,377
790
267
988
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 >=2025Syndicated facility Bilateral loans EurobondsRouble bonds Project Finance
Debt Profile Overview
15
19%
64%
100%
68%
37%
91%
38%
36%
32%
63%
9%
26% 17%Unsecured syndicated facility/Bilateral
loans/Rouble bonds/Eurobonds
Long-term/Short-term
Unsecured/Secured
USD/RUB
Float/Fixed
Covenant/Off-covenant
Total Covenant Debt: $4.8bn(2)
2.88x
2.29x
2.82x2.67x
2017 2018 2019 1H20
3.5xBank debt covenant level
91% 9%
Net Debt / LTM EBITDA Dynamics Debt Maturity Profile(1)
Debt Mix(1)
• Balanced debt portfolio with the share of public debt instruments
of 43% and USD debt of 68%, matching revenue streams
• Successful jumbo RUB35 bn 5-year Ruble Bonds issued in April
2020 during COVID-19 outbreak
• Net covenant debt reduced by 6% to $4.0 bn with
Net Debt / LTM EBITDA lowered to 2.67x
• Credit ratings: S&P maintained BB- rating with positive outlook
during the global lockdown period caused by the pandemic
• Strong liquidity position with $2.3 bn of available facilities and
quick access to capital markets, should the need arise
• Cash cushion accumulated of ~$850 mn as of end 1H20
$ m
n
Total debt (incl. project finance)
as of Jun 30, 2020: USD5.3 bn
2.66x
through the cycle
476
789
60150
848Cash and
deposits
Committed
shareholder facility
Committed
revolving line
Uncommitted
revolving lines
RUB bonds
registered
program(3)
Undrawn
facilities
2,323
Portfolio developments
Source: Company information, 1H2020 IFRS (1) As of June 30, 2020. Discrepancy in debt maturity schedule with total debt due to capitalized costs difference (2) Defined as per bank covenants (excludes project finance facilities) (3) RUB equivalent of RUB33 bn