Abrupt Climate Change - Past, Present, and Future - Stefansson Lecture - 2014
1.Abrupt climate change 2.Greenhouse gases in the past 3.Climate change simulation Atlas Week 2008...
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![Page 1: 1.Abrupt climate change 2.Greenhouse gases in the past 3.Climate change simulation Atlas Week 2008 Climate Change: How Physics Lays the Basis.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062322/5697bfb51a28abf838c9dd35/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
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1. Abrupt climate change
2. Greenhouse gases in the past
3. Climate change simulation
Atlas Week 2008
Climate Change: How Physics Lays the Basis
![Page 3: 1.Abrupt climate change 2.Greenhouse gases in the past 3.Climate change simulation Atlas Week 2008 Climate Change: How Physics Lays the Basis.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062322/5697bfb51a28abf838c9dd35/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Stable isotopes of H2O: A thermometer
(Dan
sgaa
rd, 1
964)
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‰10001)O/O(
O/OO
std1618
161818
Isotope composition changes
during phase transitions in
the water cycle:
evaporation, precipitation
(Dan
sgaa
rd, 1
964)
Stable isotopes of H2O: A thermometer
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Abrupt climate change in Greenland
(Nor
thG
RIP
Mem
bers
, 200
4)
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(Sto
cker
et a
l., 2
007)
Abrupt change and interhemispheric connections
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Abrupt change and interhemispheric connections
(EPICA, 2006)
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1. Abrupt climate change
2. Greenhouse gases in the past
3. Climate change simulation
Atlas Week 2008
Climate Change: How Physics Lays the Basis
![Page 9: 1.Abrupt climate change 2.Greenhouse gases in the past 3.Climate change simulation Atlas Week 2008 Climate Change: How Physics Lays the Basis.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062322/5697bfb51a28abf838c9dd35/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Greenhouse gases in the atmosphere
Carbon dioxideWater
H HO O OC
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~3,900 H2O molecules~ 280 CO2 molecules~ <1 CH4 molecule
they raise global mean
temperature
from –18°C
to +15°C
1,000,000 molecules in air contain:
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The real greenhouse
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The (Atmospheric) Greenhouse Effect
• Examples of greenhouse gases: H2O, CO2, CH4, CFC.• Currently, CO2 is the main suspect of causing the global warming since the 20th
century because combustion of fossil fuel naturally injects CO2 into the atmosphere and it has increased dramatically since last century.
Remember this chart?
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CO2 : higher levels and faster rise
(IPCC, 2007, Fig. SPM-1)
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Greenhouse gases over the past 800,000 years
(Lüthi et al., 2008; Loulergue et al., 2008)
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Sie
gent
hale
r et
al.,
(20
05)
Joos
& S
pahn
i (20
08)
last 10,000years
last 200years
last 50years
CO2 : higher levels and faster rise
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US Greenhouse Emissions
CO283%
CH49%
N2O6%
HFCs, PFCs, SF62%
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US CO2 Emissions
Fossil Fuel97%
Everything Else3%
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US Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions
Electricity Generation40%
Transportation32%
Industrial17%
Residential7%
Commercial4%
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+195 H2O molecules + 5%
+105 CO2 molecules + 38%
+1 CH4 molecule +160%
how much
warmer?
Since 1750 we count an additional:
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Feedbacks in the climate system
Climate SystemForcing
various feedbacks
W/m-2Response
°C
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Feedbacks in the climate system
Climate SystemForcing
various feedbacks
W/m-2Response
°C
2 × CO2 3 °C
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Feedback Effect
• The climate system is very complicated. A change in one component of the system may cause changes in other components. Sometimes the changes in other components enhance the initial change, then we say that these changes have positive feedback to the system. If the changes result in the reduction of the original change, then they have negative feedback.
• Both positive and negative feedback processes may exist in the climate system. In studying the global climatic change, we cannot make conclusions based on intuition, but have to take all such possible complicated effects into account. A good climate model would have treated all of them realistically.
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An example of positive feedback
• When the climate becomes warmer (either due to the increase of CO2 in the atmosphere or other unknown mechanisms), the ocean may also become warmer. A warmer ocean has lower solubility of CO2 and hence will release more CO2 into the atmosphere. This may cause the climate to become even warmer than before. Thus the dependence of solubility of CO2 on temperature has a positive feedback on the climate system.
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An example of negative feedback
• Consider a clear region over the ocean. Since there is no cloud, the sun shines on the ocean surface, causing it to warm up. This makes this part of the ocean warmer than other parts and the air over it tends to rise (causing convection). As we have learned before, rising air expands and cools, causing clouds to form. The formation of clouds will block out the sun and the solar heating of the ocean surface will cease. The surface will start to cool down. Thus the cloud formation due to surface heating and convection is a negative feedback to the climate system.
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Tipping points in the climate system
• Alpine glaciers• Sea ice in the Arctic• Northern extension of the Gulf Stream• Greenland ice sheet
warming perturbsthe climate system
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? ?
• Alpine glaciers disappear• Arctic is ice-free in the summer• Northern extension of the Gulf Stream stops• Greenland ice sheet melts down
> ~ 2050
~ 2030
> ~ 2100 (?)
> ~ 2300 (?)
Tipping points in the climate system
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Summer sea ice extent 2007: A record low
1979-2000
Record 2007:
collapse or
natural
variability ?
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Arctic sea ice reduces rapidly
(Str
oeve
et a
l., 2
007)
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Simulated reductions of Arctic summer sea ice
(Hol
land
et a
l., 2
006)
Decade-long rapid decrease of summer sea ice
„4 times larger than comparable observed trends“
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Arctic sea ice reduces rapidly
(Str
oeve
et a
l., 2
007)
2007
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1. Abrupt climate change
2. Greenhouse gases in the past
3. Climate change simulation
Atlas Week 2008
Climate Change: How Physics Lays the Basis
![Page 32: 1.Abrupt climate change 2.Greenhouse gases in the past 3.Climate change simulation Atlas Week 2008 Climate Change: How Physics Lays the Basis.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062322/5697bfb51a28abf838c9dd35/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
How good are IPCC projections ?
(IP
CC
, 2
00
7,
Fig
. T
S-2
6)
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Global warming depends on scenario
Emissions„high"
(IPCC, 2007, Fig. SPM-5)
Emissions„low"
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„low
"„h
igh
"
Gre
en
hou
se g
as
em
issi
ons
(IPCC, 2007, Fig. SPM-6)
Global warming depends on scenario
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Water resources will change worldwide
(IP
CC
, 2
00
7,
Fig
. S
PM
-7)
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Of course the physical environmental change will lead to changes in the biosphere – including our
society.
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Not everybody is convinced of the greenhouse gases - global warming theory
• At this point, it appears that the warming itself is real – the surface temperature indeed becomes higher in the last few decades.
• The question is – Is the warming caused by the greenhouse gases (especially CO2)?
• Some groups, especially the IPCC members argue strongly for it. But there are other groups that are not convinced. The summary to the right is from Robinson et al. (1998).
Summary World leaders gathered in Kyoto, Japan,
in December 1997 to consider a world treaty restricting emissions of ''greenhouse gases,'' chiefly carbon dioxide (CO2), that are thought to cause ''global warming'' severe increases in Earth's atmospheric and surface temperatures, with disastrous environmental consequences. Predictions of global warming are based on computer climate modeling, a branch of science still in its infancy. The empirical evidence actual measurements of Earth's temperature shows no man-made warming trend. Indeed, over the past two decades, when CO2 levels have been at their highest, global average temperatures have actually cooled slightly.
You can get this from the following websitehttp://www.oism.org/pproject/review.pdf
You can get IPCC reports at http://www.ipcc.ch/
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Some examples of criticisms• There are evidence showing that
the current temperature isn’t really that warm compared to what was two to three thousand years ago. The figure to the right shows that the temperature of Sagaso Sea fluctuates in a range of ~ 3.6°C.
• Also the “trend” depends on the data sets and the section of data you select to examine – see the lower chart. By using a different data set (here the satellite microwave sounding) and selecting a suitable section (for example, 1978-1998) you can actually show that there was a cooling, not warming.
Source: Robinson et al. (1998)
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There are also evidence showing that the solar activity seems to have some influence on atmospheric temperature. But
there are many questions here. Especially on how and how much.
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Ultimately
• The problem really is that we don’t know how the climate machine works, hence it is difficult at present to say that the warming is due to the increase of greenhouse gases and not the results of natural fluctuation of the global climate system.
• Recently, there seems to be increasing evidence showing the connection between the global warming and industrial injection of greenhouse gases. However, the extent is still not clear.
• Hopefully, with more research we can say more definitely in the near future.