1976-1977

ANNUAL REPORT

of the

POPULATION STUDIES CENTER

LOLAGENE C . COOMBS, Editor

The University of Michigan Ann Arbor, Michigan 48109

CONTENTS

Page

H i g h l i g h t s i i i

I n t r o d u c t i o n 1

Graduate T r a i n i n g 3

Data P r o c e s s i n g U n i t 6

B a s i c Research 6

D o c t o r a l D i s s e r t a t i o n s 21

P r o f e s s i o n a l and P u b l i c S e r v i c e A c t i v i t i e s 27

I n t e r n a t i o n a l A c t i v i t i e s 30

Conferences, C o l l o q u i a , Papers 32

P u b l i c a t i o n s and M a n u s c r i p t s i n P r e s s 36

Appendix A F i n a n c i a l A s s i s t a n c e P r o v i d e d

f o r Graduate Students 41

Appendix B P o p u l a t i o n S t u d i e s Center S t a f f 43

Appendix C Courses i n Demography 45

Appendix D Former P o p u l a t i o n S t u d i e s Center T r a i n e e s Who Received a Ph.D. i n S o c i o l o g y o r Economics 47

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE ANNUAL REPORT

POPULATION STUDIES CENTER, THE UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN

J u l y 1, 1976 - June 30, 1977

GRADUATE TRAINING

T h i r t y - f o u r graduate s t u d e n t s p a r t i c i p a t e d i n the Center's program a t some time d u r i n g the year. Nine a p p r e n t i c e s were i n the graduate p r o ­gram i n Economics and t w e n t y - f i v e were S o c i o l o g y s t u d e n t s .

E i g h t e e n of the t h i r t y - f o u r a p p r e n t i c e s r e c e i v e d p a r t i a l or f u l l support from a source o t h e r than the Center's b a s i c s u p p o r t i n g g r a n t s from the Ford and R o c k e f e l l e r Foundations.

T r a i n i n g o p p o r t u n i t i e s were p r o v i d e d through the Center f o r s t u d e n t s from B r a z i l , England, M a l a y s i a , Norway, P a k i s t a n , the P h i l i p p i n e s , and the U.S. One S o c i o l o g y graduate student from the Center spent the year i n Bangladesh working w i t h the MATLAB-USAID C o n t r a c e p t i v e D i s t r i b u t i o n P r o j e c t .

One Center student i s p a r t i c i p a t i n g i n summer t r a i n i n g and workshops h e l d i n June and J u l y 1977 a t the East-West P o p u l a t i o n I n s t i t u t e i n Hon­o l u l u and the Family P l a n n i n g Center i n S e o u l , Korea.

BASIC RESEARCH

I n t e r r e l a t e d s t u d i e s o f p o p u l a t i o n dynamics, p r i n c i p a l l y i n d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s , have been c a r r i e d out i n a number of c u l t u r a l s e t t i n g s over a p e r i o d of y e a r s . Among the t o p i c s i n v e s t i g a t e d d u r i n g the past year f o r Taiwan a r e : demographic change and economic development i n Taiwan; r e c ­i p r o c a l e f f e c t s of e d u c a t i o n and f e r t i l i t y ; the measurement, c o r r e l a t e s and r o o t s of f a m i l y c o m p o s i t i o n p r e f e r e n c e s ; changing p a t t e r n s of b i r t h c o n t r o l i n a d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r y ; the r e l a t i o n of f a m i l y s t r u c t u r e and t r a d i t i o n a l v a l u e s to f e r t i l i t y b e h a v i o r ; IUD use and l a t e r f e c u n d i t y ; e f f e c t o f b r e a s t f e e d i n g on b i r t h i n t e r v a l s and on p o p u l a t i o n growth; and use of a r e a l a n a l y s i s i n e v a l u a t i n g f a m i l y p l a n n i n g programs. Compara­t i v e a n a l y s e s of T u r k i s h and Mexican s t u d i e s a r e c o n t i n u i n g , w i t h empha­s i s on the t o p i c of p o p u l a t i o n c l u s t e r i n g . Comparative work h i s t o r i e s i n Yokohama and D e t r o i t have been used f o r a n a l y s i s of i n t e r - g e n e r a t i o n a l o c c u p a t i o n m o b i l i t y . Family c o m p o s i t i o n p r e f e r e n c e s have been i n v e s t i g a ­ted i n s e v e r a l d i f f e r e n t c u l t u r e s , both d e v e l o p i n g and developed, and the congruence o f husbands' and w i v e s ' views about r e p r o d u c t i v e g o a l s exam­i n e d .

i i i

I n v e s t i g a t i o n of the causes and consequences of p o p u l a t i o n d i f f e r e n t i a ­t i o n and s e g r e g a t i o n c o n t i n u e s w i t h a n a l y s e s o f : r e s i d e n t i a l segrega­t i o n , trends i n r a c i a l s e g r e g a t i o n i n s c h o o l s , r a c e - s e x s p e c i f i c educa­t i o n a l d i f f e r e n t i a l s i n the U.S., r a c i a l d i f f e r e n c e s i n m o r t a l i t y , and the measurement and i m p l i c a t i o n s o f p o p u l a t i o n c l u s t e r i n g .

Economic-demographic i n t e r a c t i o n s a r e b e i n g s t u d i e d i n a number o f s e t ­t i n g s and t h e o r e t i c a l models, i n c l u d i n g : econometric a n a l y s i s of U.S. f e r t i l i t y change; economic and demographic f a c t o r s i n household d e c i ­s i o n s ; s t u d i e s o f women's r o l e s , work e x p e r i e n c e and e a r n i n g s , a n d ' t h e i r r e l a t i o n to f e r t i l i t y i n the U.S., Taiwan and D e t r o i t ; and the changing socioeconomic s t a t u s o f women and of b l a c k s .

The focus on h i s t o r i c a l demographic s t u d i e s c o n t i n u e s w i t h r e s e a r c h on economic and demographic i n t e r a c t i o n s i n p r e i n d u s t r i a l Europe, h i s t o r i ­c a l p o p u l a t i o n dynamics i n German v i l l a g e s , u r b a n - r u r a l d i f f e r e n c e s i n demographic b e h a v i o r i n 19th c e n t u r y Germany, and women's work r o l e s i n the 'U.S. i n the 1880s.

Emphasis on measurement i s s u e s and measurement e r r o r s has been evidenced i n r e s e a r c h i n i n t e r v i e w e r e f f e c t s , measurement e r r o r s i n r e p o r t s on a s ­p i r a t i o n s and e x p e c t a t i o n s , models f o r d e v e l o p i n g s c a l e s f o r f a m i l y com­p o s i t i o n p r e f e r e n c e s , e s t i m a t i o n o f a g e - p e r i o d - c o h o r t models i n d i s c r e t e d a t a , p o t e n t i a l s f o r m u l t i s t a g e - m u l t i t r a i t models i n f a m i l y p l a n n i n g p r o ­gram a n a l y s i s , response r e l i a b i l i t y i n i n t e r v i e w s u r v e y s , t h e o r e t i c ex­p l o r a t i o n o f the meaning o f "don't know" responses, examination of mono-t o n i c i t y i n survey a t t i t u d i n a l measures, and t h e o r e t i c a l models ; f o r meas­u r i n g women's commitment to work o u t s i d e the home. These i n v e s t i g a t i o n s u t i l i z e data from a number of c o u n t r i e s and are p o t e n t i a l l y u s e f u l f o r demographic r e s e a r c h i n a v a r i e t y of s e t t i n g s .

DOCTORAL DISSERTATIONS,

Three d i s s e r t a t i o n p r o j e c t s were brought t o c o m p l e t i o n d u r i n g the 1976-77 year. The t o p i c s i n v e s t i g a t e d i n c l u d e : an economic a n a l y s i s of the young a d u l t ' s d e c i s i o n to form a s e p a r a t e household; i n t r a g e n e r a t i o n a l m o b i l i t y i n the U.S. and Japan; the i n t e r a c t i o n between female l a b o r f o r c e p a r t i c i p a t i o n and f e r t i l i t y i n Mexico C i t y . P r o p o s a l s f o r t h i r ­teen new d i s s e r t a t i o n s were approved d u r i n g the y e a r .

ASSISTANCE TO POPULATION STUDIES ABROAD

Seven f o r e i g n s t u d e n t s p a r t i c i p a t e d i n the a p p r e n t i c e s h i p program d u r i n g

1976-77. :.

F a c u l t y a s s o c i a t e s of the Center v i s i t e d Belgium, Colombia, England, France, Guatamala, Hong Kong, Japan, Mexico, and Taiwan t o conduct s t u d ­i e s , to a s s i s t i n v e s t i g a t o r s , o r to f a m i l i a r i z e themselves w i t h demogra­p h i c work b e i n g c a r r i e d out by o r g a n i z a t i o n s i n the r e s p e c t i v e c o u n t r i e s .

i v

PROFESSIONAL ACTIVITIES OF STAFF

Some 46 manuscripts w r i t t e n by a s s o c i a t e s of the Center were p u b l i s h e d or accepted f o r p u b l i c a t i o n d u r i n g 1976-77. About 2900 r e p r i n t s of s t a f f p u b l i c a t i o n s were sent by the Center i n response to requests from 36 c o u n t r i e s . In a d d i t i o n to f i l l i n g p e r s o n a l r e p r i n t r e q u e s t s , s t a f f members a l s o sent s p e c i a l r e s e a r c h m a t e r i a l s to w e l l over 100 r e s e a r c h ­e r s i n f o r e i g n c o u n t r i e s .

Among the p r o f e s s i o n a l assignments undertaken by s t a f f members d u r i n g the year were:

membership on committees a d v i s o r y to the N a t i o n a l Academy of S c i ­ences, N a t i o n a l I n s t i t u t e of C h i l d H e a l t h and Human Development, P o p u l a ­t i o n A s s o c i a t i o n of America, Bureau of the Census, N a t i o n a l I n s t i t u t e s o f Mental Health, World F e r t i l i t y Survey, Center f o r F a m i l y P l a n n i n g P r o ­gram Development, I n t e r n a t i o n a l Bank f o r R e c o n s t r u c t i o n and Development, U.S. Committee on S c h o l a r l y Communication w i t h the People's R e p u b l i c of C h i n a , P o p u l a t i o n C o u n c i l , Ford Foundation, Academia S i n i c a , Taiwan P r o ­v i n c i a l I n s t i t u t e of Family P l a n n i n g , M i n i s t r y of the I n t e r i o r and the J o i n t Commission f o r R u r a l R e c o n s t r u c t i o n , R e p u b l i c o f China, U n i t e d N a t i o n s P o p u l a t i o n D i v i s i o n , C o u n c i l o f I n t e r n a t i o n a l A s s o c i a t i o n o f Survey S t a t i s t i c i a n s , N a t i o n a l Science Foundation, Mathematical S o c i a l S c i e n c e s Board, N a t i o n a l Research C o u n c i l , S o c i a l Science Research C o u n c i l ;

s e r v i c e as o f f i c e r s or committee members of the I n t e r n a t i o n a l Union f o r the S c i e n t i f i c Study of P o p u l a t i o n , the P o p u l a t i o n A s s o c i a t i o n of Am­e r i c a , the P o p u l a t i o n C o u n c i l , the American S o c i o l o g i c a l A s s o c i a t i o n , World Bank, N a t i o n a l Academy o f S c i e n c e s , I n t e r n a t i o n a l A d v i s o r y Commit­t e e , East-West P o p u l a t i o n I n s t i t u t e ;

p r e s e n t a t i o n of some f o r t y papers or l e c t u r e s a t s p e c i a l c o n f e r e n ­c e s , o t h e r u n i v e r s i t i e s , or p r o f e s s i o n a l meetings;

a s s i s t a n c e i n r e v i e w i n g m a n u s c r i p t s and i n the e d i t i n g of the Amer­i c a n J o u r n a l o f S o c i o l o g y , Demography, J o u r n a l o f the American S t a t i s t i ­c a l A s s o c i a t i o n , S o c i a l F o r c e s , American S o c i o l o g i c a l Review, American S o c i o l o g i s t , J o u r n a l of Family H i s t o r y , S o c i o l o g i c a l Focus, Comparative S t u d i e s i n S o c i e t y and H i s t o r y , S t u d i e s i n F a m i l y P l a n n i n g , E x p l o r a t i o n i n Economic H i s t o r y , S o c i a l Methods and Research, Human Ecology, Urban A f f a i r s Q u a r t e r l y , R u r a l S o c i o l o g y , S o c i a l B i o l o g y , Canadian S t u d i e s i n P o p u l a t i o n , and J o u r n a l o f Economic H i s t o r y .

FACILITIES

D u r i n g the p a s t y e a r , the Center a c q u i r e d 1900 square f e e t o f a d d i t i o n a l o f f i c e and work space, and added two new DEC-Writer t e r m i n a l s f o r commu­n i c a t i o n w i t h the U n i v e r s i t y ' s c e n t r a l computer i n s t a l l a t i o n .

v

ANNUAL REPORT

POPULATION STUDIES CENTER, THE UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN

J u l y 1, 1976 - June 30, 1977

The P o p u l a t i o n S t u d i e s Center, now c o m p l e t i n g i t s f i f t e e n t h year of op­e r a t i o n , has a program w i t h t h r e e major emphases: graduate t r a i n i n g i n p o p u l a t i o n s t u d i e s ; b a s i c r e s e a r c h on p o p u l a t i o n w i t h i n a s o c i a l , s o c i a l -p s y c h o l o g i c a l , economic, o r e c o l o g i c a l framework; and a s s i s t a n c e to demo­g r a p h i c s t u d i e s i n ' s e l e c t e d d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s . S i n c e i t s - i n c e p t i o n the Center has operated under b a s i c s u p p o r t i n g g r a n t s from the Ford Foun­d a t i o n . S i n c e c a l e n d a r 1971 a pare of the b a s i c support f o r Center a c ­t i v i t i e s a l s o comes from a grant from the R o c k e f e l l e r Foundation. A r e c e n t Center g r a n t from the N a t i o n a l I n s t i t u t e o f C h i l d H e a l t h and Development augments these funds. S p e c i f i c r e s e a r c h p r o j e c t s and s p e c i a l a c t i v i t i e s c o n t i n u e to be funded s e p a r a t e l y by v a r i o u s governmental agen­c i e s and p r i v a t e s o u r c e s . During the c u r r e n t y e a r , the f a c i l i t i e s of the Center have been expanded by an a d d i t i o n a l 1900 square f e e t of o f f i c e and workroom space, r e l i e v i n g the c o n s i d e r a b l e c o n g e s t i o n o f r e c e n t y e a r s . The Center a l s o a c q u i r e d two new DEC-Writer t e r m i n a l s f o r communication w i t h the U n i v e r s i t y ' s c e n t r a l computer i n s t a l l a t i o n .

In January 1977 Dr. A l b e r t I . Hermalin assumed the d i r e c t o r s h i p of the Center. Dr. David Goldberg, the d i r e c t o r s i n c e 1972, c o n t i n u e s as an a s s o c i a t e d i r e c t o r o f the Center. P r o f e s s o r Reynolds F a r l e y was A c t i n g Chairman o f the Department of S o c i o l o g y , January-May 1977.

On June 1, 1977, Helen L. Dempster, who has been the a b l e A d m i n i s t r a t i v e A s s o c i a t e f o r the Center d u r i n g the p a s t f i f t e e n y e a r s , r e t i r e d . Susan E t t e r has now assumed t h i s r o l e .

One Center s t u d e n t , Vasantha Kandiah, r e c e i v e d an award from the E a s t -West P o p u l a t i o n I n s t i t u t e to p a r t i c i p a t e i n the E i g h t h Summer Seminar on P o p u l a t i o n , June 1 3 - J u l y 15, 1977.

A number of v i s i t i n g s c h o l a r s have spent time a t the Center t h i s y e a r . Among these a r e :

Mr. V. T. P a l a n , S e n i o r S t a t i s t i c i a n of the Sampling and F i e l d D i v i s i o n , Department of S t a t i s t i c s , Kuala Lumpur, M a l a y s i a , came t o the Center i n November, 1976, to work w i t h Drs. Ronald Freedman and W i l l i a m Mason on the p r o j e c t community a n a l y s i s of M a l a y s i a n f e r t i l i t y and f a m i l y . H i s s t a y has been under the auspices o f the World F e r t i l i t y Survey and he expects to r e t u r n to M a l a y s i a a t the end o f J u l y .

- 1 -

Mr. M. C. Chang, on l e a v e from h i s p o s i t i o n as C h i e f of the Research and . P l a n n i n g D i v i s i o n of the Taiwan P r o v i n c i a l I n s t i t u t e of Family P l a n n i n g , spent s e v e r a l months a t the Center working on h i s d i s s e r t a t i o n r e s e a r c h , " M i g r a t i o n and F e r t i l i t y i n Taiwan," and c o n s u l t i n g w i t h P r o f s . Hermalin and Freedman. Mr. Chang i s a d o c t o r a l c a n d i d a t e a t the U n i v e r s i t y of P e n n s y l v a n i a .

Mr. Armindo Miranda and Mrs. B e r i t Tvedt, demographers and members o f the r e s e a r c h s t a f f o f the C h r i s t i a n M i c h e l s e n I n s t i t u t e i n Bergen, Nor­way, v i s i t e d the Center i n A p r i l .

Dr. W i n i f r e d Weekes-Vagliani of the O r g a n i z a t i o n f o r Economic Coopera­t i o n and Development spent s e v e r a l days a t the Center i n A p r i l c o n s u l t ­i n g w i t h a number of s t a f f members on her p r o j e c t on "Improving the S t a ­tus o f Young Women i n D e v e l o p i n g C o u n t r i e s . "

Mrs. Lene M I k k e l s e n , Centre de Demographie, B r u s s e l s , Belgium, and Mr. Farhat Yusuf, U n i v e r s i t y o f Sydney, A u s t r a l i a , both spent a b r i e f p e r i o d a t the Center c o n s u l t i n g w i t h s t a f f members.

Dr. J . D. Venter of the Human S c i e n c e s Research C o u n c i l , P r e t o r i a , South A f r i c a , v i s i t e d the Center i n June i n c o n n e c t i o n w i t h a Study Tour t o l e a r n about s o c i a l s c i e n c e r e s e a r c h c e n t e r s and t h e i r o r g a n i z a t i o n i n the U.S.

Dr. H. U. H. B e k h e i t o f the F a c u l t y o f M e d i c i n e , A s s i u t U n i v e r s i t y , Egypt, came to the c e n t e r i n the s p r i n g o f 1977 to d i s c u s s the r e s e a r c h program o f the C e n t e r , p a r t i c u l a r l y as i t r e l a t e s t o the d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s .

The Center cooperated w i t h the Center f o r European S t u d i e s i n b r i n g i n g P e t e r L a s l e t t from the Cambridge Group f o r the Study o f P o p u l a t i o n and S o c i a l S t r u c t u r e t o the U n i v e r s i t y o f M i c h i g a n .

Dr. G r i f f i t h Feeney and Dr. Fred A r n o l d , both former Center s t u d e n t s now a t the East-West P o p u l a t i o n I n s t i t u t e i n H a w a i i , spent s e v e r a l days con­s u l t i n g w i t h Center s t a f f .

Under the s p o n s o r s h i p o f the Economic Demography T r a i n i n g Program, f o u r d i s t i n g u i s h e d v i s i t o r s presented s p e c i a l seminars. They were: Dr. Har­vey L e i b e n s t e i n , Harvard; Dr. Warren Sanderson, S t a n f o r d ; Dr. M i c h a e l Greenwood, A r i z o n a S t a t e U n i v e r s i t y ; ' a n d Dr. Samuel P r e s t o n , U n i v e r s i t y o f Washington.

GRADUATE TRAINING

Each year the Center provides an opportunity f o r about t h i r t y graduate

students to o b t a i n on-the-job t r a i n i n g i n the conduct of demographic r e ­

search. T h i r t y - f o u r graduate students p a r t i c i p a t e d i n the Center's

t r a i n e e s h i p program at some time during 1976-77. Twelve were nearing

completion of the d o c t o r a l program and were working on t h e i r d i s s e r t a ­

t i o n research p r o j e c t s . Of the nine students new to the Center program,

f i v e were j u s t beginning graduate study at Michigan; four had begun t h e i r

graduate study at Michigan e a r l i e r , but had not p r e v i o u s l y been a s s o c i a ­

ted with the Center's t r a i n e e s h i p program.

Nine graduate student apprentices were i n the program i n Economics, and

twenty-five were Sociology students.

Support

The b a s i c supporting grants from the Ford and R o c k e f e l l e r Foundations

make p o s s i b l e the f l e x i b l e arrangements so e s s e n t i a l to an e f f e c t i v e

t r a i n i n g program. The form of a s s i s t a n c e provided t r a i n e e s by the Cen­

t e r continues to depend on the stage of a p p r e n t i c e s h i p and the support

a v a i l a b l e to the student from other sources. The d e t a i l e d r e p o r t on the

types o f f i n a n c i a l a s s i s t a n c e provided by the Center f o r a p p r e n t i c e s dur­

i n g 1976-77 appears i n Appendix A.

Eighteen of the t h i r t y - f o u r apprentices r e c e i v e d p a r t i a l or f u l l support

from a source other than the Center's b a s i c supporting grants. The

sources of support included f e l l o w s h i p programs administered through the

Department of Sociology and the D e t r o i t Area Study, f e l l o w s h i p programs

of the Norwegian Research C o u n c i l , the N a t i o n a l Science Foundation, the

Department of Labor, the Agency f o r I n t e r n a t i o n a l Development, the Eco­

nomic Demography Program, and s p e c i a l grants from the Ford and R o c k e f e l ­

l e r Foundations.

T r a i n i n g

The b a s i c t r a i n i n g program focuses on mastery of the techniques and sub­

s t a n t i v e research l i t e r a t u r e necessary f o r the understanding of the so­

c i a l and economic causes and consequences of p o p u l a t i o n s i z e , composi­

t i o n , d i s t r i b u t i o n and change. P a r t i c u l a r emphasis i s given to the ba­

s i c demographic processes of m o r t a l i t y , f e r t i l i t y , n u p t i a l i t y , and mi­

g r a t i o n which determine p o p u l a t i o n s t r u c t u r e and change. The t r a i n i n g

i n demography and p o p u l a t i o n s t u d i e s i s achieved through a p p r o p r i a t e

course work (see Appendix C) and through a w e l l developed research ap­

p r e n t i c e s h i p program i n which students take i n c r e a s i n g r e s p o n s i b i l i t y

f o r v a r i o u s phases of an a c t u a l research p r o j e c t .

-3-

In the f i r s t two years of the t r a i n e e s h i p , each student spends twelve

hours each week working at the Center under the c l o s e s u p e r v i s i o n of a

member of the p r o f e s s i o n a l s t a f f . By the t h i r d or f o u r t h year, the s t u ­

dent u s u a l l y i s ready to devote f u l l time to the i n v e s t i g a t i o n to- be r e ­

ported i n a d o c t o r a l d i s s e r t a t i o n .

In a s e r i e s of one-hour noncredit t r a i n i n g sessions organized by M.

Coble and A. Anderson, f i r s t year students l e a r n b a s i c computer tech­

niques and are given the opportunity to f a m i l i a r i z e themselves with the

Center's l i b r a r y of tapes and programs and t h e i r a p p l i c a t i o n to problems

of p o p u l a t i o n a n a l y s i s . Such t r a i n i n g i s required of a l l Center student

t r a i n e e s .

A p a r t of the program i n Economic Demography, supported by a N a t i o n a l

I n s t i t u t e s of Health t r a i n i n g grant, i s c a r r i e d out at the Center i n co­

o p e r a t i o n with the Department of Economics, with R. Lee as program d i r ­

e c t o r . Students i n Economics who are i n t e r e s t e d i n p o p u l a t i o n aspects

of economic i s s u e s r e c e i v e demographic t r a i n i n g through p a r t i c i p a t i n g i n

the Center a p p r e n t i c e s h i p program and through taking a p p r o p r i a t e courses

i n p o p u l a t i o n .

An i n t e n s i v e eight-week summer program d i r e c t e d by L. Kish of the Survey

Research Center combines two courses i n sampling with a workshop i n sam­

p l i n g procedures. While intended p r i m a r i l y f o r s t a t i s t i c i a n s from d e v e l ­

oping c o u n t r i e s , Center students a l s o p a r t i c i p a t e i n p a r t s of t h i s pro­

gram.

The students and members of the p r o f e s s i o n a l s t a f f p a r t i c i p a t e i n an i n ­

formal weekly seminar at which a s t a f f member, an advanced student, or

an o c c a s i o n a l v i s i t o r r e p o r t s on h i s current research a c t i v i t y . K. Mason

coordinated the seminar i n 1976-77. The s e l e c t e d t i t l e s given below i l ­

l u s t r a t e the range o f t o p i c s covered.

Can Government P o l i c i e s Integrate Schools? (R. F a r l e y )

Permanent Employment i n D e t r o i t ^ a n d Yokohama (P. S i e g e l )

The Inverse P r o j e c t i o n Method Applied to Norway, Denmark and

Sweden, 1735-1974 (Helge Brunborg)

Husband-Wife Agreement About Family Size Goals ( J . Czajka)

Trends i n the L e v e l and D i s t r i b u t i o n of Schooling f o r 20th

Century American Man (R. Mare)

E s t i m a t i n g Infant M o r t a l i t y Trends from Census Data on C h i l d

S u r v i v o r s h i p (G. Feeney, East-West Population I n s t i t u t e )

Target F e r t i l i t y , . C o n t r a c e p t i o n , and Aggregate Rates:

Toward a Formal Synthesis (R. Lee)

A Report on the World Bank's Program i n Population (R. Freedman)

Household Composition E f f e c t s on Household Expenditures (R. Barnes)

L o n g i t u d i n a l Study of C o r r e l a t e s of F e r t i l i t y : A Reinterview

of the 1962 DAS Sample (D. Freedman)

The E f f e c t of L a c t a t i o n on F e r t i l i t y i n Taiwan (A. Hermalin)

The Prospects f o r R a c i a l I n t e g r a t i o n i n Neighborhoods (D. Colasanto)

The Determinants of Occupational Sex Composition of Female

Workers ( J . Madans)

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To extend the p r o f e s s i o n a l horizons of the t r a i n e e s , attendance at the

annual meetings of Che Population A s s o c i a t i o n of America has been encour­

aged. During the year, a number of students gave papers at p r o f e s s i o n a l

meetings. (See S e c t i o n on Conferences.)

Former Students

Upon completion of t h e i r t r a i n i n g at the Population Studies Center, the

t y p i c a l p a t t e r n i n the past has been f o r students to accept a p o s i t i o n

at an academic i n s t i t u t i o n . In recent years, however, new emphasis on

the s a l i e n c e of demography f o r many areas of research and p o l i c y making

has been r e f l e c t e d i n increased employment i n non-academic research p o s i ­

t i o n s , both i n the United States and abroad. A l i s t of the 60 Center

t r a i n e e s r e c e i v i n g the Ph.D. i n Sociology or Economics s i n c e the Center's

Inception i n 1962 i s given i n Appendix D. The range of i n s t i t u t i o n s with

which they are now a f f i l i a t e d gives an overview of the scope of prepara­

t i o n provided at the Center.

Modern m o b i l i t y complicates any attempt at a complete accounting of a l l

students who have had t r a i n i n g at the Center. In a d d i t i o n to the Center

Ph.D. degree r e c i p i e n t s l i s t e d i n Appendix D, many students from the U.S.

and abroad have received Center t r a i n i n g . A l l together about 60 former

t r a i n e e s c u r r e n t l y hold academic p o s i t i o n s at about 30 u n i v e r s i t i e s i n

the United States and at e i g h t u n i v e r s i t i e s abroad. Another 49 are en­

gaged i n research i n about 18 n a t i o n a l , 13 f o r e i g n , and four i n t e r n a t i o n ­

a l o r g a n i z a t i o n s concerned with p o p u l a t i o n i s s u e s , i n c l u d i n g :

The Department of S t a t i s t i c s (Malaysia)

Taiwan I n s t i t u t e of Family Planning

East-West P o p u l a t i o n I n s t i t u t e (Honolulu)

The Population C o u n c i l (New York)

Food Research I n s t i t u t e (Stanford)

N a t i o n a l Center f o r Health S t a t i s t i c s

World F e r t i l i t y Survey (London)

Center f o r Disease C o n t r o l (Atlanta)

Department of S o c i a l Services (Lansing)

Family Planning A s s o c i a t i o n of Hong Kong

U.S. Bureau of the Census

M i n i s t e r i o de Trabaho y Communidades (Peru)

Urban Neptura de Monterriea (Peru)

N a t i o n a l Center f o r Labor S t a t i s t i c s (Mexico)

I n t e r n a t i o n a l Labor O r g a n i z a t i o n (Geneva)

Ciudad de l o s P e r i o d i s t a s (Madrid)

The Urban I n s t i t u t e (Washington D.C.)

I n s t i t u t e of Development Studies (Bangladesh)

S e a t t l e P u b l i c Schools

Bureau of Resources and Development (Lansing)

A f r i c a n I n s t i t u t e f o r Economic Development and Planning (Senegal)

M i n i s t r y of Health and S o c i a l A f f a i r s (Korea)

Census and S t a t i s t i c s Department (Hong Kong)

-5-

DATA PROCESSING UNIT

M. Coble and A. Anderson are r e s p o n s i b l e f o r c o o r d i n a t i n g data proces­

s i n g a t the Center and f o r i n s t r u c t i n g Center apprentices i n the use o f

the data p r o c e s s i n g and computing f a c i l i t i e s .

K. Richardson continues to serve the Center as a s t a f f programmer.' R.

Nylund l e f t the s t a f f to complete h i s degree i n computer s c i e n c e , and i s

replaced by F. C a r t f o r d , whose previous job was with I n t e r f a c e , Inc.

The Center's l i b r a r y of data f i l e s has now expanded to more than 500

r e e l s of magnetic tape. S e v e r a l programs have been prepared to perform

necessary l i b r a r y f u n c t i o n s f o r t h i s c o l l e c t i o n ( c a t a l o g i n g , i n s p e c t i o n ,

t r a n s c r i p t i o n ) .

The u n i t has acquired two new DEC-Writer terminals f o r communication

with the U n i v e r s i t y ' s c e n t r a l computer i n s t a l l a t i o n . I t i s expected

that we w i l l a c q u i r e a d d i t i o n a l terminals i n the near f u t u r e .

E f f o r t s d u r i n g the past year have focused on a s s i s t i n g Center s t a f f with

s t u d i e s r e l a t i n g to a v a r i e t y of new data f i l e s . Included among these

f i l e s are P u b l i c Use Sample and Current Population Survey f i l e s from the

Bureau of the Census, s c h o o l enrollment f i l e s from the O f f i c e of C i v i l

R i g h t s , f e r t i l i t y and f a m i l y planning data from Taiwan and M a l a y s i a , and

the General S o c i a l Surveys from NORC.1

As In the past, the programming s t a f f has consulted with and provided

p r o f e s s i o n a l s e r v i c e s to researchers from many other i n s t i t u t i o n s .

BASIC RESEARCH

The Center organizes no c e n t r a l i z e d program of i n v e s t i g a t i o n . Consider­

able research focuses on a number of social-demographic t o p i c s on which

there i s e x t e n s i v e s t a f f i n t e r a c t i o n and c o l l a b o r a t i o n . The r e s e a r c h

p r o j e c t s undertaken by members of the p r o f e s s i o n a l s t a f f and the d i s s e r ­

t a t i o n p r o j e c t s i n i t i a t e d by d o c t o r a l candidates, however, r e f l e c t t h e i r

i n d i v i d u a l i n t e r e s t s w i t h i n the broad spectrum of population research.

Under b a s i c grants from the Ford and R o c k e f e l l e r Foundations, the Center

has f l e x i b i l i t y i n f a c i l i t a t i n g research a c t i v i t i e s i n a v a r i e t y of ways

but most p r o j e c t s have been financed' under a separate grant or c o n t r a c t

f o r research. In the past year, i n d i v i d u a l research p r o j e c t s have been

funded from a number of sources i n c l u d i n g grants or c o n t r a c t s from the

N a t i o n a l I n s t i t u t e of C h i l d Health and Human Development, N a t i o n a l I n s t i

Lutes of Health, Health Resources A d m i n i s t r a t i o n , World Bank, N a t i o n a l

Science Foundation, the Upper Great, Lakes Regional Commission, Ford-Rock

e f e l l e r P o p u l a t i o n P o l i c y Research Program, Bureau of Labor S t a t i s t i c s ,

-6-

<

S t a t i s t i c s Canada, and the I n t e r n a t i o n a l S t a t i s t i c a l I n s t i t u t e - W o r l d

F e r t i l i t y Survey. The major research a c t i v i t i e s of the p r o f e s s i o n a l

s t a f f during 1976-77 are l i s t e d below.

POPULATION DYNAMICS IN TAIWAN

Members of the Center's p r o f e s s i o n a l s t a f f continued t h e i r c l o s e c o l l a b ­

o r a t i o n and c o n s u l t i n g r e l a t i o n s h i p s with v a r i o u s agencies i n Taiwan on

a range of research t o p i c s . R. Freedman and A. Hermalin have been j o i n t ­

l y r e s p o n s i b l e f o r the broad range of research and c o n s u l t i n g a c t i v i t y i n

Taiwan. L. Coombs and B. Moots have been s e n i o r research a s s o c i a t e s i n

important aspects of t h i s work. R. P o t t e r of Brown U n i v e r s i t y c o l l a b o r ­

ates on analyses of IUD c o n t i n u a t i o n p a t t e r n s , and s p e c i a l t a b u l a t i o n s

have been made a v a i l a b l e to C. Mode of Drexel U n i v e r s i t y f o r h i s work on

Computer Macroslmulation i n Family Planning E v a l u a t i o n . Taiwan data have

a l s o been made a v a i l a b l e to A. J a i n of the Population C o u n c i l f o r a c o l ­

l a b o r a t i v e a n a l y s i s o f breastfeeding patterns and t h e i r e f f e c t on f e r t i ­

l i t y .

Support f o r the analyses of Taiwan population dynamics at the Center

comes p r i m a r i l y from a grant from the Center f o r P o p u l a t i o n Research of

the N a t i o n a l I n s t i t u t e of C h i l d Health and Development.

The broad o b j e c t i v e of t h i s research i s a c o n t i n u i n g study on a wide

range of t o p i c s r e l a t e d to the demographic t r a n s i t i o n i n Taiwan, with

s p e c i a l a t t e n t i o n to f e r t i l i t y changes i n r e l a t i o n to socioeconomic

development and the f a m i l y planning program. Since the p r o j e c t covers

a great number o f r e l a t e d sub-projects, with domestic and f o r e i g n c o l l a b ­

o r a t o r s , the b r i e f r e p o r t s given below are s e l e c t i v e .

Changing Patterns of B i r t h C o n t r o l i n a Developing Country

Drawing on both a l o n g i t u d i n a l study and a d e t a i l e d c r o s s - s e c t i o n a l s u r ­

vey, A. Hermalin i s t r a c i n g f o r Taiwan how a s o c i e t y moves to more e f f e c ­

t i v e b i r t h c o n t r o l d u r i n g the course of i t s demographic t r a n s i t i o n . The

study focuses on the frequency of v a r i o u s types of sequences of c o n t r a ­

c e p t i v e p r a c t i c e s ; d i f f e r e n c e s i n sequences and p a t t e r n s among important

subgroups of the p o p u l a t i o n ; changes i n c o n t r a c e p t i v e use that occur once

d e s i r e d family s i z e i s reached; and i n r e c o g n i t i o n of the sharp upsurge

In s t e r i l i z a t i o n , the p r i o r p r a c t i c e s and other c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s a s s o c i a ­

ted with t h i s p a r t i c u l a r step. Charles Connerly has been a s s i s t i n g In

t h i s research.

Family S t r u c t u r e and T r a d i t i o n a l F a m i l i a l Values i n Taiwan

R. Freedman, B. Moots, and T. H. Sun, with the a s s i s t a n c e of Mary Beth

Weinberger, used data from the 1973 and e a r l i e r KAP s t u d i e s to examine

f a m i l i a l s t r u c t u r e and a t t i t u d e s . The f i n d i n g s are that the t r a d i t i o n a l

Chinese stem f a m i l y i s s t i l l a dominant form of household s t r u c t u r e i f

parents of the household are a v a i l a b l e , although there has been a modest

-7-

decrease i n t h i s phenomenon s i n c e 1965. Other important f i n d i n g s are:

(1) Many respondents who are l i v i n g i n nuclear u n i t s have parents l i v i n g

with a married brother, so the f i l i a l o b l i g a t i o n i s being met i n a t r a d i ­

t i o n a l way. ( 2) I f parents and married sons do not l i v e together, there

i s a considerable amount of v i s i t i n g and o f f i n a n c i a l exchanges between

them. Thus the network of f a m i l i a l t i e s i s not adequately represented by

household s t r u c t u r e alone. ( 3) The j o i n t - s t e m f a m i l y continues to be im­

portant i n farm households, while the stem family i s more important i n

non-farm households. One of the most important r e s u l t s of t h i s I n v e s t i ­

g a t i o n , however, i s the f i n d i n g that i t i s p o s s i b l e f o r an LDC population

to have a high r a t e of use of c o n t r a c e p t i o n while r e t a i n i n g t r a d i t i o n a l

f a m i l i a l forms and a t t i t u d e s . Desired f a m i l y s i z e i s more c l o s e l y r e l a ­

ted to t r a d i t i o n a l f a m i l i a l values than i s the p r a c t i c e of c o n t r a c e p t i o n .

A Taiwan Working Paper, No. 34, "Types of Households i n Taiwan: Preva­

lence and C o r r e l a t e s , " has been issued and a segment of i t has been ac­

cepted f o r p u b l i c a t i o n .

Preference P r o f i l e s and F e r t i l i t y Behavior Among Taiwanese Wives

U t i l i z i n g data from the new number and sex preference s c a l e methodology

incorporated i n the Taiwan KAP-4 survey, L. Coombs has analyzed the r e l a ­

t i o n s h i p of u n d e r l y i n g preference s t r u c t u r e to l i f e c y c l e stage, s o c i o ­

economic and modernization measures, and r e p r o d u c t i v e goals and behavior.

Underlying preferences f o r l a r g e f a m i l i e s p e r s i s t f o r a l a r g e segment of

the p o p u l a t i o n , d e s p i t e recent drops i n average f a m i l y s i z e i d e a l s , and a

preference f o r sons i s found f o r o v e r i , 90 percent of the wives. An i n t e r ­

e s t i n g f i n d i n g i s that although number preference patterns vary with mod­

e r n i z a t i o n measures i n the expected d i r e c t i o n , r e l a t i v e l y small d i f f e r e n ­

t i a l s are found f o r son preference, which s t i l l c h a r a c t e r i z e s a l l segments

of the s o c i e t y . Underlying preferences are found to be f r e q u e n t l y at

variance with g l o b a l s i n g l e - v a l u e d statements, and are more p r e d i c t i v e

of f e r t i l i t y behavior. This d i f f e r e n c e between s t a t e d goals and under­

l y i n g s t r u c t u r e may help to e x p l a i n d i s c r e p a n c i e s between a s p i r a t i o n s and

achievement i n f e r t i l i t y , an i s s u e which w i l l be covered with prospective

data i n the next phase of the study. ..iBoth number and sex preference I

s c a l e p o s i t i o n are found to be s y s t e m a t i c a l l y r e l a t e d to p a r i t y progres­

s i o n r a t i o s i n the past, expectations f o r c h i l d b e a r i n g i n the f u t u r e , and

present use of c o n t r a c e p t i o n . J . Rogers a s s i s t e d i n the a n a l y s i s , along

with K. Gaskin, M. Koenig and C. Tan as student t r a i n e e s at e a r l i e r

stages i n the research. An a r t i c l e based on t h i s a n a l y s i s and coauthored

by T. H. Sun has been accepted f o r p u b l i c a t i o n i n P o p u l a t i o n Studies.

Demographic Change and Economic Development i n Taiwan

E. Mueller completed an a n a l y s i s of the impact of p o p u l a t i o n growth on

the economic development of Taiwan. This research complements previous

s t u d i e s which have been concerned p r i m a r i l y with the reverse r e l a t i o n ,

i . e . , the e f f e c t of economic development on f e r t i l i t y and m o r t a l i t y .

Although Taiwan's recent economic h i s t o r y does not suggest that demo­

graphic f a c t o r s played a l e a d i n g r o l e i n i t s economic success s t o r y , they

seem to have made q u i t e a s i g n i f i c a n t c o n t r i b u t i o n . In p a r t i c u l a r , r a p i d

-8-

growth of the l a b o r f o r c e , r e l a t i v e l y low wages and high savings r a t e s

were consequences of the demographic s i t u a t i o n and helped to a c c e l e r a t e

development.

A r e a l A n a l y s i s of Family Planning Program E f f e c t s

More and more c o u n t r i e s are developing the data base necessary to e v a l u ­

ate the e f f e c t s of t h e i r f a m i l y planning programs on f e r t i l i t y . In r e ­

sponse to t h i s the United Nations Population D i v i s i o n .is preparing a man­

u a l i l l u s t r a t i n g the v a r i o u s techniques i n use. Drawing on the e x p e r i ­

ence i n Taiwan with a r e a l m u l t i v a r i a t e a n a l y s i s , A. Hermalin i s preparing

a chapter d e s c r i b i n g t h i s methodology.

Long-Term IUD Use Following Program Acceptance

B. Moots and R. P o t t e r continue work based on the Taichung IUD Acceptance

Study i n c l u d i n g the p r e p a r a t i o n of a summary r e p o r t of the p r i n c i p a l f i n d ­

ings of e a r l i e r analyses. Many of the women who entered the program com­

p l e t e d t h e i r c h i l d b e a r i n g by the time of the l a s t round of interviews i n

1974. This data s e r i e s provides the opportunity to compare, by means of

prospective data, the r e p r o d u c t i v e careers of women coming under an i n ­

t e n s i v e family planning program at d i f f e r e n t stages of f a m i l y - b u i l d i n g .

I t i s hypothesized that the e a r l i e r the exposure to the program (and

a s s o c i a t e d s e c u l a r changes), the greater the degree of f a m i l y planning

success. Young women who give l i m i t i n g as t h e i r motive f o r a c c e p t i n g an

IUD tend to be s e l e c t i v e of those with e a r l y marriage or s m a l l s i z e of

f a m i l y d e s i r e s and; on e i t h e r count, face a r e l a t i v e l y harder job of

a v o i d i n g excess f e r t i l i t y d u r i n g the e n t i r e reproductive career. Accord­

i n g l y , they o f f e r the means f o r a c o n s e r v a t i v e t e s t of the above hypothe­

s i s . Former Center a s s o c i a t e , R. Avery, now at C o r n e l l U n i v e r s i t y , con­

tinues to be involved i n t h i s work.

Education and Family S i z e Over Two Generations

A. Hermalin i s using .a d e t a i l e d set of 1973 KAP questions on education

and occupation of parents, number of s i b l i n g s , and e d u c a t i o n a l attainment

or expectations for each c h i l d to examine i n depth the r e l a t i o n of f e r t i l ­

i t y to education over two generations. E a r l i e r c r o s s - s e c t i o n analyses do

not support i n Taiwan the f i n d i n g i n the United States and other low f e r ­

t i l i t y c o u n t r i e s that coming from a l a r g e family adversely a f f e c t s educa­

t i o n a l attainment. The aim of the present study i s to i n v e s t i g a t e the

changing r e c i p r o c a l i n f l u e n c e s between . f e r t i l i t y and education over two

generations and to develop models to account f o r e d u c a t i o n a l l e v e l s and

d i v e r s i t y among s i b l i n g s . S p e c i f i c analyses i n c l u d e : 1) the r e l a t i o n of

c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of the couple's parents to the number of t h e i r c h i l d r e n

and both of these, i n turn, to the education of the husband and wife;

2) the determinants of the average l e v e l of education o f the husband and

h i s brothers and t h e i r l e v e l of homogeneity; 3) the r e l a t i o n of the cou­

p l e ' s c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s to a t t i t u d e s toward cost and b e n e f i t s of c h i l d r e n

and to the number of c h i l d r e n the couple has and/or expects; and 4) the

r e l a t i o n of the husband's and wife's education, and the s i z e and

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composition of t h e i r f a m i l y of p r o c r e a t i o n to the average l e v e l and l e v e l of heterogeneity of education of t h e i r c h i l d r e n . J . S e l t z e r i s a student a s s i s t a n t i n t h i s research.

Women's Roles, F a m i l i a l Values, and Family Composition Preferences

In an attempt to explore the roots of underlying preference s t r u c t u r e ,

L. Coombs i s i n v e s t i g a t i n g the r e l a t i o n of husband and wife r o l e s , fami­

l y d e c i s i o n making, dominance, wife's work and work s e t t i n g , o u t s i d e

a c t i v i t i e s , marriage arrangements and f a m i l y l i v i n g p a t t e r n s , and r e l i ­

g i o s i t y to the Coombs sex and number preference s c a l e s . A number of

Guttman s c a l e s combining s e v e r a l i n d i c a t o r s have been developed f o r the

r o l e s and values v a r i a b l e s . A n a l y s i s to date i n d i c a t e s that more t r a ­

d i t i o n a l r o l e r e l a t i o n s h i p s and f a m i l i a l values and l i v i n g patterns are

p o s i t i v e l y r e l a t e d to u n d e r l y i n g son and l a r g e f a m i l y preference, beyond

the e f f e c t s that would be expected"on the b a s i s of v a r i a t i o n i n modernism

as r e f l e c t e d i n increased education, income and u r b a n i z a t i o n . Exposure

Co o u t s i d e i n f l u e n c e s v i a the media, p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n n o n - f a m i l i a l a c t i v ­

i t i e s and d e s i r e to work o u t s i d e the home are found to be more important

f o r f a m i l y s i z e preferences than are r o l e r e l a t i o n s h i p s i n the f a m i l y .

J . Rogers and C. Tan are a s s i s t i n g i n t h i s work.

Taiwan Household R e g i s t e r Data

During the past year work began on a new set of data obtained from the

M i n i s t r y of I n t e r i o r of Taiwan. Large samples of the household r e g i s t e r

were drawn f o r the years 1971, 1972 and 1973. The data c o n t a i n informa­

t i o n on the socioeconomic c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of a l l members of the sampled

households (about 8,000 each y e a r ) , with separate data f i l e s on the l i v e

b i r t h h i s t o r i e s of a l l ever-married women ages 20-49. To t h i s point

work has concentrated on c a r r y i n g out c o n s i s t e n c y checks, c o r r e c t i n g

e r r o r s i n the data when necessary, preparing the data f o r subsequent

a n a l y s i s , and running s e v e r a l c r o s s - t a b u l a t i o n s f o r colleagues i n T a i ­

wan. Future e f f o r t s by R. Freedman and B. Moots w i l l be d i r e c t e d toward

the a n a l y s i s of n u p t i a l i t y r o l e s and^ a n a l y s i s of the open and c l o s e d

b i r t h i n t e r v a l s contained i n the data.

F e r t i l i t y Behavior I m p l i c a t i o n s of Perceived C o s t - B e n e f i t s of C h i l d r e n

and Household Consumption Patterns

T h i s i n v e s t i g a t i o n by L. Coombs of s e l e c t e d economic f a c t o r s as they r e ­

l a t e to f e r t i l i t y goals and behavior has two main aspects. The f i r s t i s

concerned with the economic u t i l i t y of c h i l d r e n viewed p r i m a r i l y i n a

c o s t - b e n e f i t framework. The second 'Is the r e l a t i o n to f e r t i l i t y of ex­

penditure p a t t e r n s , i n p a r t i c u l a r the purchase and ownership of consumer

goods and of expected expenditures f o r the education of c h i l d r e n ; Index­

es of perceived cost and u t i l i t y have been constructed, and w i l l be sup­

plemented by data on a number of v a r i a b l e s , i n c l u d i n g : a c t u a l c o n t r i b u ­

t i o n s being made by respondents to t h e i r own parents, r e l a t i v e economic

s i t u a t i o n compared to the past i n s o f a r as i t appears to be a f f e c t e d by

number of c h i l d r e n , a s p i r a t i o n s f o r education of c h i l d r e n plus knowledge

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of and p r e p a r a t i o n f o r the c o s t s , expectations f o r f u t u r e economic p o s i ­

t i o n , and present ownership of modern consumer durables. J . Rogers and

C. Tan are a s s i s t i n g i n t h i s research.

The E f f e c t of B r e a s t f e e d i n g on B i r t h I n t e r v a l s

A recent a n a l y s i s of the e f f e c t of b r e a s t f e e d i n g on the d u r a t i o n of the

b i r t h i n t e r v a l i n Taiwan shows that i n a d d i t i o n to prolonging the p e r i o d

of postpartum amenorrhea, continued b r e a s t f e e d i n g may reduce the proba­

b i l i t y of conception even a f t e r the resumption of menstruation. A. Her­

malin i s engaged i n f u r t h e r t e s t i n g t h i s e f f e c t and t r a c i n g i t s i m p l i c a ­

t i o n s . The e f f e c t of b r e a s t f e e d i n g on the p r o b a b i l i t y of conception

w i l l be analyzed f o r two s u c c e s s i v e b i r t h i n t e r v a l s , the second i n t e r v a l

a l l o w i n g f o r c o n t r o l of more f a c t o r s than was p o s s i b l e i n the previous

i n v e s t i g a t i o n . In a d d i t i o n , the study w i l l measure the degree of c o r r e ­

l a t i o n among women on b r e a s t f e e d i n g and amenorrhea over two i n t e r v a l s .

Another f a c e t of the study focuses on the r e d u c t i o n i n the incidence and

d u r a t i o n of b r e a s t f e e d i n g and the increased use of supplementary feeding

observed i n Taiwan and other developing c o u n t r i e s . Trends and d i f f e r e n ­

t i a l s i n b r e a s t f e e d i n g w i l l be described and these data, together with

information on the overlap of b r e a s t f e e d i n g with c o n t r a c e p t i v e use, w i l l

be used to estimate what a change i n b r e a s t f e e d i n g patterns might e n t a i l

f o r f e r t i l i t y l e v e l s under v a r i o u s c o n d i t i o n s . T h i s research i s under­

taken i n c o l l a b o r a t i o n with Dr. Anrudh J a i n , a former Center a s s o c i a t e

now at the Population C o u n c i l . Charles Connerly has been a s s i s t i n g .

Use of a S t o c h a s t i c Process to Simulate Pregnancy-Contraceptive H i s t o r i e s

The h i s t o r i e s of couples' c h i l d b e a r i n g under n a t u r a l f e r t i l i t y c o n d i t i o n s

can be u s e f u l l y approximated by means of age-dependent Markov processes.

A much tougher challenge i s f i t t i n g the f a m i l y - b u i l d i n g h i s t o r i e s of

b i r t h c o n t r o l l e r s because of a d d i t i o n a l c r i t i c a l dependencies besides

age. In connection with a f i n a l report of the Taichung IUD Medical F o l -

low-Up Study being prepared by B. Moots, a d e t a i l e d e v a l u a t i o n was under­

taken by R. P o t t e r to assess the p o s s i b l e c o n t r i b u t i o n s of a methodology

under development by the mathematicians, C. J . Mode and C. S. Littman,

who are now pursuing independent research u t i l i z i n g the Taiwan data.

This approach i n v o l v e s the l i n k i n g together of age-dependent, absorbing

semi-Markov processes i n order to represent s e l e c t e d stages i n the fami­

l y - b u i l d i n g careers of couples p r a c t i c i n g c o n t r a c e p t i o n and induced abor­

t i o n .

R e l i a b i l i t y of F e r t i l i t y Survey Responses

To assess the r e l i a b i l i t y or c o n s i s t e n c y of responses over time to s u r ­

vey questions, L. Coombs has examined the c o n s i s t e n c y of responses of

Taiwanese wives to questions repeated on a post-enumeration survey taken

with a s e l e c t e d number of respondents about a month f o l l o w i n g the Taiwan

KAP-4 survey. Results show that while o v e r a l l r e l i a b i l i t y i s reasonably

good, there i s greater r e l i a b i l i t y f o r f a c t u a l than f o r a t t i t u d i n a l data;

but there a l s o i s v a r i a t i o n i n consistency of responses on f a c t u a l

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questions depending on the s a l i e n c e of the t o p i c to the respondent. The

l e v e l of r e l i a b i l i t y i s found to vary depending on whether aggregate da­

t a or i n d i v i d u a l responses are at i s s u e . A v a r i e t y of measures have

been used, sometimes with c o n f l i c t i n g r e s u l t s . Estimates of r e l i a b i l i t y

are shown to depend on the measure used and on the skewness of the d i s ­

t r i b u t i o n s o f the responses to the q u e s t i o n n a i r e items. This, may be

p a r t i c u l a r l y important when questions r e l a t e to c u l t u r a l norms. C. Tan,

a student apprentice, and J . Rogers a s s i s t e d i n t h i s a n a l y s i s . A paper

on the t o p i c has been accepted f o r p u b l i c a t i o n i n Studies i n Family

Planning.

Taiwan Working Papers and A c t i v i t i e s of Taiwan C o l l a b o r a t i n g Researchers

The p r o j e c t continues the Working Paper s e r i e s , s t a r t e d i n 1969 as a c o l ­

l a b o r a t i v e venture with the Taiwan Committee on Family Planning i n order

to c i r c u l a t e research r e s u l t s q u i c k l y to 250 i n t e r e s t e d persons. R.

Freedman and A. Hermalin are the e d i t o r s . The f o l l o w i n g papers were

added during 1976-77.

33. L. C. Coombs, "Levels of R e l i a b i l i t y i n F e r t i l i t y Survey Data:

Taiwan 1973," November 1976.

34. R. Freedman, B. Moots, M. B. Weinberger and T. H. Sun, "Types of

Households i n Taiwan: Prevalence and C o r r e l a t e s , " January 1977.

T. H. Sun and H. S. L i n , i n cooperation with R. Freedman, are updating

the s e r i e s of s t u d i e s on Taiwan f e r t i l i t y trends p r e v i o u s l y published.

The work, which i s being done p r i m a r i l y In Taiwan, u t i l i z e s the f e r t i l i ­

ty data c o l l e c t e d i n Taiwan In 1976 as part of the t r a n s n a t i o n a l Value

of C h i l d r e n Study. The Taiwan p o r t i o n of t h i s study was under the d i r e c ­

t i o n of T. H. Sun.

P. L i u and T. H. Sun are s u p e r v i s i n g workshops as p a r t of the East-West

Population I n s t i t u t e ' s Eighth Summer Seminar in Population. The theme

of the five-week seminar i s "Demographic A n a l y s i s f o r Population P o l i c y

i n A s i a and the P a c i f i c . " T. H. Sun has prepared an i n v i t e d paper,

"Demographic E v a l u a t i o n of Taiwan's Family Planning Program" f o r presen­

t a t i o n at t h i s conference.

DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS OF RACIAL DIFFERENCES IN THE UNITED STATES

R. F a r l e y ' s r e s e a r c h concentrated on four aspects of r a c i a l d i f f e r e n c e s

i n the United States.

R a c i a l D i f f e r e n c e s i n Socioeconomic Status

Using data from recent d e c e n n i a l censuses and the 1975 Current Popula­

t i o n Survey, R. F a r l e y sought to determine i f the socioeconomic gains

which blacks experienced i n the 1960s were negated i n the 1970s, perhaps

because of the economic r e c e s s i o n , and found that, i n general, they were

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*

not. With regard to education, occupation and income, there are c l e a r i n d i c a t i o n s that the improvements of the 1960s were maintained i n the 1970s, suggesting that the progress of the l a s t decade was not s o l e l y because of the nation's expanded economy. These findings were reported i n "Trends i n R a c i a l I n e q u a l i t i e s : Have the Gains of the 1960s Disap­peared i n the 1970s?," American S o c i o l o g i c a l Review, A p r i l 1977.

R a c i a l R e s i d e n t i a l Segregation i n C i t i e s

R. Farley's major research a c t i v i t y t h i s year has concerned the analysis of the causes of r a c i a l r e s i d e n t i a l segregation. The 1976 Detroit Area S t u d y — d i r e c t e d by H. Schuman with R. Farley as p r i n c i p a l i n v e s t i g a t o r — was devoted to the topic of why r e s i d e n t i a l neighborhoods remain highly segregated although blacks have improved t h e i r socioeconomic status and whites appear to have l e s s p r e j u d i c i a l a t t i t u d e s now than previously. The e a r l i e r phases of t h i s study were supported i n part by funds from the National Science Foundation. In the spring of 1976 a sample of 734 white and 400 black respondents was obtained. They were asked many ques­tions about t h e i r socioeconomic status, t h e i r a t t i t u d e s toward a v a r i e t y of r a c i a l Issues i n c l u d i n g school and neighborhood i n t e g r a t i o n and a se­r i e s of questions about t h e i r current housing and t h e i r neighborhood pre­ferences. Preliminary findings suggest that many blacks would l i k e and can afford to l i v e i n r a c i a l l y mixed areas, are knowledgeable about the Detroit area housing market, but think they would be unwelcome i n most l a r g e l y white areas and are r e l u c t a n t to be the f i r s t family to enter a previously segregated area. Whites strongly endorse the p r i n c i p l e of no r a c i a l d i s c r i m i n a t i o n but express considerable anxiety about l i v i n g i n a neighborhood which includes black residents. A high proportion of the white respondents said they would leave a neighborhood i f i t became 20 percent black and only a small minority of whites were w i l l i n g to con­s i d e r buying a house i n a neighborhood where blacks made up as l i t t l e as 10 percent of the population. In l i g h t of these f a c t s the prospects for neighborhood i n t e g r a t i o n seem bleak. Diane Colasanto, Susan Bianchi and S h i r l e y Hatchett have assisted as student trainees i n t h i s work. Pre­l i m i n a r y findings have been submitted for p u b l i c a t i o n and w i l l be pre­sented at the 1977 meeting of the American S o c i o l o g i c a l Assocation. Another paper on the t o p i c , "The Causes of R a c i a l R e s i d e n t i a l Segrega­t i o n : An Analysis of the D e t r o i t Area," w i l l appear i n the Annals i n 1978.

Another a n a l y s i s , funded by NICHD and using Census Tract data, has been underway over a period of years and has resulted i n a paper submitted for p u b l i c a t i o n on " R e s i d e n t i a l Segregation i n the United States Urban­ized Class i n 1970: An Analysis of S o c i a l Class and R a c i a l Differences."

R a c i a l Segregation i n the Nation's Schools

R. Farley continued his study, made possible by grants from the National I n s t i t u t e of Education and.the National I n s t i t u t e s of Mental Health, of white f l i g h t and r a c i a l segregation i n the public schools of the nation's l a r g e s t c i t i e s . Stimulated by the C i v i l Rights Act of 1964 there were

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s u b s t a n t i a l decreases between 1968 and 1972 i n school r a c i a l secregation In both c i t i e s and r u r a l areas of the South. Desegregation i n the North has proceeded more slowly but since 1971 many northern c i t i e s have come under Increasing federal pressure and a few c i t i e s have implemented large scale Integration programs. White enrollment declines i n most c e n t r a l c i t i e s school d i s t r i c t s — a b o u t 6 percent per annum—result, i n part, from the secular decline i n b i r t h s and because of the tendency for people to move away from c e n t r a l c i t i e s . At the time of i n t e g r a t i o n , there i s frequently an a d d i t i o n a l loss of white students. The magnitude of t h i s a d d i t i o n a l loss depends upon the s i z e of the school d i s t r i c t , i t s r a c i a l composition, the a v a i l a b i l i t y of suburban schools, and the thoroughness of the i n t e g r a t i o n order. These findings were reported In the paper, "Can Governmental P o l i c i e s Integrate Schools?" presented at the American S o c i o l o g i c a l Assocation meeting i n September 1976. Another paper on "Integrating Schools i n the Nation's Largest Cities*. What Has Been Accomplished and What i s Yet to be Done" has been completed. Clarence Wurdock has been a student a s s i s t a n t i n t h i s work.

R a c i a l Differences i n M o r t a l i t y

Since the mid-1960s there has been a sharp increase i n homicide m o r t a l i ­ty i n the United States. There are important r a c i a l and sexual d i f f e r ­ences. Age standardized rates suggest that black men and women are about eight to ten times as l i k e l y to die of homicide as are whites. Demographic explanations, for example decreased economic s t a t u s , do not explain the homicide rate increases. Among black males, homicide i s the fourth or f i f t h leading cause of death depending upon whether you subdi­vide a c c i d e n t a l deaths. I t s e f f e c t upon the l i f e span of black males i s quite s u b s t a n t i a l . Removing heart disease deaths would, at present, add about eight years to the l i f e span of black men. Removing malignant neo­plasm deaths would add about 2.2 years. E l i m i n a t i n g cerebrovascular d i ­seases—which i s the t h i r d leading cause of death—would add only 1.3 years to the l i f e span. However, the e l i m i n a t i o n of homicide m o r t a l i t y would add 1.6 years. Thus, homicide m o r t a l i t y has a more adverse e f f e c t upon the l i f e span of black men thanf cerebrovascular diseases and i s not far behind malignant neoplasms. Findings from t h i s a n a l y s i s were pre­sented at the conference, "Lethal Aspects of Urban Violence," held at the U n i v e r s i t y of Wisconsin-Madison, May 10-11, 1977.

FAMILY SIZE EXPECTATIONS AND PREFERENCES: FINDINGS FROM THE NATIONAL SURVEY OF FAMILY GROWTH-CYCLE I.

L. Coombs completed an i n v e s t i g a t i o n of a number of issues on the r e l a ­tionship of expectations and preferences f o r family s i z e using the data from the 1973 U.S. National Survey of Family Growth. Under contract with the Health Resources Administration, d e t a i l e d a n a l y s i s included: r e l a t i o n of preference scale values to.range responses on expectations or intentions for future childbearing; d i s t r i b u t i o n of number and sex preference scale values i n the U.S. population and selected geographic, demographic and socioeconomic subgroups, t h e i r r e l a t i o n s h i p to measures

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of f i r s t preference, and assessment of i m p l i c a t i o n s f o r future f e r t i l i t y behavior; v a r i a t i o n among s i g n i f i c a n t subgroups i n how expectations or preferences are related to underlying preference s t r u c t u r e ; and the In­t e r r e l a t i o n s h i p of preferences f o r number and for sex of c h i l d r e n and t h e i r l i k e l y r e l a t i v e impact on reproductive goals and performance. J . Rogers and B. Burton a s s i s t e d i n t h i s research. The report i s a forthcoming p u b l i c a t i o n of the Department of Health, Education and Welfare.

THE DESIGN OF EMPLOYMENT SURVEYS IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

E. Mueller i s developing survey instruments to measure employment and underemployment i n developing countries, with f i n a n c i a l support from AID and the World Bank. Presently ongoing employment surveys i n developing countries are designed l a r g e l y for macro or time s e r i e s a n a l y s i s . They have been widely c r i t i c i z e d because they do not r e f l e c t the structure of the labor market and the d i f f e r e n t i a l u t i l i z a t i o n of labor that i s char­a c t e r i s t i c of developing countries. The purpose of t h i s project i s to f a c i l i t a t e the c o l l e c t i o n of data useful f o r micro-analysis of household labor u t i l i z a t i o n , i n c l u d i n g u t i l i z a t i o n of women's and children's labor.

MEASUREMENT AND IMPLICATIONS OF POPULATION CLUSTERING

D. Goldberg and B. Moots continue working on the i n d i v i d u a l behavioral i m p l i c a t i o n s of population segregation or c l u s t e r i n g . This work has now ranged across data sets from Ankara, Mexico C i t y , Taichung, and D e t r o i t . While there are v a r i a t i o n s In the e f f e c t s of population c l u s t e r i n g across a wide range of v a r i a b l e s , the net e f f e c t of t h i s component of the secondary environment appears to be e x c e p t i o n a l l y strong. Nancy Grassmick a s s i s t e d i n the a n a l y s i s . This work was funded by a Ford-Rockefeller P o l i c y Research grant.

ECONOMICS OF FERTILITY IN THE U.S.

D. Goldberg collaborated with Dr. Arland Thornton of the I n s t i t u t e f o r S o c i a l Research i n c o l l e c t i n g data on the sociology and economics of f e r t i l i t y from a n a t i o n a l U.S. sample. The study provides data from each spouse on family structure and time use as w e l l as an elaborate set of economic materials. Debra Schatz a s s i s t e d i n t h i s e f f o r t . The f i e l d work was funded by NICHD and the Ford Foundation.

HISTORICAL POPULATION DYNAMICS IN GERMAN VILLAGES

J . Knodel i s continuing h i s a n a l y s i s of German v i l l a g e genealogies from the perspective of h i s t o r i c a l demography. This unique data source con­t a i n s reconstituted family h i s t o r i e s f o r a l l persons l i v i n g i n a v i l l a g e from p r e i n d u s t r i a l times to the present. The a n a l y s i s , funded by the

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National I n s t i t u t e s of Health, i s g i v i n g s p e c i a l a t t e n t i o n to temporal change. One focus i s on the i n t e r r e l a t i o n s h i p of c h i l d m o r t a l i t y and f e r t i l i t y . The Influence of b i r t h I n t e r v a l length, family s i z e , and p a r i t y on m o r t a l i t y r i s k s of o f f s p r i n g w i l l also be examined. Another focus i s n a t u r a l f e r t i l i t y and family l i m i t a t i o n with s p e c i a l a t t e n t i o n to evidence of c o n t r o l p r i o r to the f e r t i l i t y decline and the t r a n s f o r ­mation from p r e i n d u s t r i a l to modern childbearing patterns. The data permit an i n d i v i d u a l l e v e l a n a l y s i s not possible with the aggregate data used i n previous studies of the demographic t r a n s i t i o n . Other f o c i i n ­clude i l l e g i t i m a c y , b r i d a l pregnancy and n u p t i a l i t y , and the c o r r e l a t e s and consequences of generational l i n k s i n i l l e g i t i m a c y . H a l l i e Kintner has been a s s i s t i n g i n the p r o j e c t .

URBAN-RURAL DIFFERENCES IN DEMOGRAPHIC BEHAVIOR IN 19TH CENTURY GERMANY

J . Knodel i s conducting a review of urban-rural d i f f e r e n t i a l s i n demo­graphic behavior i n c l u d i n g n u p t i a l i t y , f e r t i l i t y , i l l e g i t i m a c y , and i n ­fant m o r t a l i t y i n 19th century Germany. The study analyzes the exten­sive data tabulated separately for urban and r u r a l sectors as w e l l as f o r i n d i v i d u a l c i t i e s from 19th century and e a r l y 20th century German s t a t e censuses. The "focus i s p a r t i c u l a r l y on the l a t t e r part of the 19th century, e s p e c i a l l y the years around 1880.

DETROIT LONGITUDINAL STUDY

D. Freedman, i n cooperation with A. Thornton at the I n s t i t u t e f o r S o c i a l Research, i s studying vaTious aspects of the f e r t i l i t y , economic s t a t u s , sex r o l e a t t i t u d e s , family s t r u c t u r e , and labor force p a r t i c i p a t i o n of a panel of women f i r s t Interviewed i n 1962, with p a r t i c u l a r emphasis on the changes which have taken place during the past f i f t e e n years. The present interview i s the f i f t h with t h i s group of women during that pe­r i o d . Interviewing has been completed with a response rate of 95 per­cent. The research issues addressed include: (1) how and why are fami­l y s i z e plans changed over the childbearing period, (2) the r e l a t i o n s h i p between women's labor force p a r t i c i p a t i o n and reproductive behavior, (3) the changes i n sex r o l e a t t i t u d e s and t h e i r r e l a t i o n s h i p to changes i n childbearing a t t i t u d e s or practices' and to labor force p a r t i c i p a t i o n , (4) the r e l a t i o n s h i p of economic factors to reproductive behavior, and (5) s o c i a l , economic and demographic factors i n m a r i t a l s t a b i l i t y , and the e f f e c t s of m a r i t a l d i s s o l u t i o n ' o n childbearing, labor force p a r t i c i ­pation and the family's economic p o s i t i o n . Melissa Clark and Cynthia Beckham have been student assistants' on t h i s p r o j e c t .

HOMOGENEITY OF SIBLINGS ON EDUCATION AND OCCUPATION IN THE UNITED STATES

A. Hermalin i s continuing research on the l e v e l of homogeneity of adult s i b l i n g s on educational attainment and occupational status i n the United States, using data from the I n s t i t u t e f o r S o c i a l Research 1960 Survey of

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Income and Welfare. This study also i s i n v e s t i g a t i n g the s o c i a l , econo­mic and family s t r u c t u r a l c o r r e l a t e s of homogeneity on these character­i s t i c s and the r e l a t i v e importance of s i m i l a r i t y as against b i r t h order d i f f e r e n t i a l s . The f i n d i n g s to date i n d i c a t e high l e v e l s of homogeneity on education across various s i z e s i b l i n g groups and the almost complete absence of b i r t h order e f f e c t s . Aspects of t h i s study are p a r a l l e l to those on education and f e r t i l i t y i n Taiwan, previously described, and the patterns found i n these two cultures w i l l be compared. Susan E t t e r has been a s s i s t i n g i n t h i s work.

WOMEN'S COMMITMENT TO WORK

L. Coombs has been i n v e s t i g a t i n g the question of women's preferred choices of work and/or c h i l d r e n , i n order to explore the p o s s i b i l i t y of developing a measure of commitment to work. Using a methodological sam­p l e , conjoint measurement a n a l y s i s techniques for examination of trade­o f f s i t u a t i o n s have been used. Results to date i n t e s t i n g a v a r i e t y of models i n d i c a t e that there are two dimensions, one a t o t a l ( c h i l d plus job) involvement l e v e l and the other a j o b - c h i l d o r i e n t a t i o n continuum. Using t h i s model, two preference scales have been developed. I t i s planned to use these scales with larger samples. J . Rogers and M. Melendez have been a s s i s t i n g i n t h i s work.

IDENTIFICATION AND ESTIMATION OF AGE-PERIOD-COHORT MODELS IN THE ANALY­SIS OF DISCRETE ARCHIVAL DATA

W. Mason (with S. E. Fienberg of the U n i v e r s i t y of Minnesota) completed " I d e n t i f i c a t i o n and Estimation of Age-Period-Cohort Models i n the Analy­s i s of Discrete A r c h i v a l Data." The paper explains the I d e n t i f i c a t i o n problems that occur when ages and periods are evenly and equally spaced. Sampling models are indicated and the minimal s u f f i c i e n t s t a t i s t i c s are given. The i t e r a t i v e proportional f i t t i n g and Newton-Raphson methods for maximum l i k e l i h o o d estimation are described for age-period-cohort s p e c i f i c a t i o n s . Various formulations of d i s c r e t e response v a r i a b l e s are l i s t e d , and t h e i r s p e c i a l features explained. The paper also con­siders the i d e n t i f i c a t i o n problem when ages and periods are evenly spaced, with m u l t i p l e age groups forming a span equal to that between successive periods. Degrees of freedom are provided for a l l models d i s ­cussed. An extended a n a l y s i s of an example concerning the educational attainment of white males i n the United States i l l u s t r a t e s the formal r e s u l t s of the paper. Michael B a t t a g l i a was the student a s s i s t a n t for t h i s p r o j e c t .

BREASTFEEDING PATTERNS AND THE BIOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF INFANT MORTALITY

Using a combination of data from studies that compare m o r t a l i t y r i s k s by age during the f i r s t year of l i f e according to the type of feeding (breast versus a r t i f i c i a l feeding) and h i s t o r i c a l data f o r populations

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with d i f f e r e n t breast feeding customs, J. Knodel i s t e s t i n g the assump­t i o n underlying the biometric a n a l y s i s of infant m o r t a l i t y that the age structure of infant deaths a f t e r the f i r s t month of l i f e i s v i r t u a l l y constant across time and c u l t u r e . Consistent differences i n the age s t r u c t u r e of Infant m o r t a l i t y are revealed for the two infant feeding groups and between populations with d i f f e r e n t breastfeeding customs. This has i m p l i c a t i o n s f o r i n t e r p r e t i n g the r e s u l t s yielded by the b i o ­metric a n a l y s i s of i n f a n t m o r t a l i t y . H a l l l e Kintner i s a s s i s t i n g on t h i s project.

BREASTFEEDING AND POPULATION GROWTH

J . Knodel i s assessing the p o t e n t i a l demographic impact of a massive s h i f t from the breast to the b o t t l e as the primary infant feeding prac­t i c e i n populations where the p r a c t i c e of b i r t h c o n t r o l i s f a r from u n i v e r s a l . Most discussions i n the past have focused on the f e r t i l i t y enhancing e f f e c t s of the abandonment of breastfeeding. By taking i n t o consideration the impact that such a s h i f t i n feeding practices would have on infant m o r t a l i t y as w e l l , very d i f f e r e n t r e s u l t s emerge. '

WOMEN'S WORK IN 1880, USA

K. Mason i s doing a s t a t e - l e v e l analysis of the c o r r e l a t e s of women's g a i n f u l employment i n the United States i n 1880. Katherine Gaskin i s a s s i s t i n g as a student trainee.

AN ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF U.S. FERTILITY CHANGE, 1947 TO 1974 [

R. Lee i s i n v e s t i g a t i n g the i n t e r r e l a t i o n s of f e r t i l i t y , population s i z e and age s t r u c t u r e , and the age d i s t r i b u t i o n of income i n the U.S.,, 1947 to 1974. The emphasis i s on b u i l d i n g a closed growth model with endog­enous population which may then be used f o r f o r e c a s t i n g . The project i s funded under a contract with the National I n s t i t u t e of C h i l d Health and Human Development. Michael Arthur and Mark Browning have a s s i s t e d as student trainees i n t h i s work.

VARIATIONS IN THE MEANING OF STATEMENTS ABOUT DESIRED FAMILY SIZE

The hypothesis that s i m i l a r statements about desired number of c h i l d r e n have d i f f e r e n t meanings f o r persons"with d i f f e r e n t c u l t u r a l , s o c i a l , or economic backgrounds has been examined by L. Coombs with preference scale data from D e t r o i t , Morocco, Ankara, Mexico C i t y and the U.S. Exam­i n a t i o n of the underlying preferences of women who give i d e n t i c a l s t a t e ­ments about family s i z e desires shows that there are not only c u l t u r a l differences In the meaning attached to such statements but a l s o s t r a t a differences w i t h i n a c u l t u r e . This .analysis should throw f u r t h e r l i g h t o n , d i f f e r e n t i a l use of contraception and the frequently observed

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discrepancy between family s i z e desires and achieved f e r t i l i t y , and has i m p l i c a t i o n s for family planning programs. A paper based on t h i s r e ­search has been accepted for p u b l i c a t i o n by Perspectives.

A STUDY OF TIME USE IN RURAL BOTSWANA

E. Mueller helped to design a survey of r u r a l income d i s t r i b u t i o n , time use and f e r t i l i t y i n Botswana under the auspices of the World Bank. The data are now ready f o r a n a l y s i s . She intends to explore the v a l i d i t y of the time use data and t h e i r u t i l i t y i n explaining income d i s t r i b u t i o n . A r e l a t e d subject of i n t e r e s t i s the value of women and children's time, as t h i s may a f f e c t f e r t i l i t y and schooling decisions. This i s a cooper 1

a t i v e project with the World Bank and the Government of Botswana.

ECONOMIC-DEMOGRAPHIC INTERACTIONS IN PREINDUSTRIAL EUROPE

Using econometric techniques, R. Lee i s analyzing economic-demographic i n t e r a c t i o n s i n p r e i n d u s t r i a l Europe, with a p p l i c a t i o n s to England. He i s c o l l a b o r a t i n g with E. A. Wrigley and Roger Schofleld of the Cambridge Group f o r the History of Population and S o c i a l Structure on the a n a l y s i s of aggregate time s e r i e s from a sample of 404 English parishes covering the period 1538-1838. Tom Fraker and Toni Richards have been the s t u ­dent a s s i s t a n t s i n t h i s work, which i s funded by a grant from the Na­t i o n a l I n s t i t u t e s of Health.

HUSBAND-WIFE AGREEMENT ABOUT REPRODUCTIVE GOALS

L. Coombs investigated the extent to which husbands and wives are i n agreement i n t h e i r a t t i t u d e s toward the number and sex of the c h i l d r e n they would l i k e to have. The analysis u t i l i z e s I-scale data on under­l y i n g preference s t r u c t u r e as w e l l as more conventional measures c o l l e c t ­ed i n the state of Selangor, Malaysia. Congruence of a t t i t u d e s was exam­ined i n r e l a t i o n to l e v e l of preference, to husband and wife communica­t i o n , and to a number of s o c i a l and demographic f a c t o r s . The amount of agreement i s found to vary with the focus of a n a l y s i s . Aggregate agree­ment among men and women i s very high i n general, but v a r i e s with back­ground c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . P a r t i c u l a r l y among some ethnic groups, the views of men on the importance of sons are stronger than those of women. In-tra-couple agreement i s much lower than aggregate agreement. The views of neither spouse could be said to r e f l e c t accurately that of the other and i t would be hazardous to assume that one partner "speaks for the family." M. Koenig a s s i s t e d as a student trainee on t h i s study, and J . Rogers a s s i s t e d In the computer a n a l y s i s . A paper based on t h i s research has been submitted f o r p u b l i c a t i o n .

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WOMEN'S LABOR-FORCE PARTICIPATION AND FERTILITY

K. Mason i n completing a monograph on a s e r i e s o f analyses intended to

assess the extent to which aspects of U.S. women's ,employment Influence t h e i r f e r t i l i t y behavior. A primary focus of the research i s determin­ing whether economic or psychological Incentives or rewards of married women's employment have unambiguous influence on the timing and number of b i r t h s .

TARGET FERTILITY, CONTRACEPTION AND AGGREGATE RATES

R. Lee i s attempting to integrate f e r t i l i t y survey concepts with the formal demographic analysis of aggregate rates. The c e n t r a l parameters are the f e r t i l i t y rate and the a d d i t i o n a l desired f e r t i l i t y of nonterm-i n a t o r s . The research shows that a c t u a l aggregate U.S. f e r t i l i t y has been consistent with the f e r t i l i t y expectations data, when reviewed i n a stock adjustment context. The pattern of d u r a t i o n - s p e c i f i c m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y , and the way i t Is a l t e r e d by changes i n contraceptive f a i l ­ure r a t e s , i s derived from the model. The r e s u l t s of t h i s research were presented at the A p r i l 1977 meetings of the Population Association of America.

COMMUNITY-LEVEL FACTORS IN MALAYSIAN FERTILITY

W. Mason, i n c o l l a b o r a t i o n with V. T. Palan of the Malaysian Bureau of S t a t i s t i c s , i s analyzing the 1974 Malaysian F e r t i l i t y and Family Survey to determine and i n t e r p r e t the relevance of community-level factors for knowledge, a t t i t u d e s and p r a c t i c e s regarding f e r t i l i t y related phenome­na. This study, being done f o r the World F e r t i l i t y Survey, w i l l present procedures and f i n d i n g s i n such a way as to guide subsequent analyses of the l i n k between community and i n d i v i d u a l - l e v e l factors i n other WFS countries which have the r e q u i s i t e data. Vasantha Kandiah i s the s t u ­dent a s s i s t a n t for t h i s p r o j e c t . v

GEOGRAPHIC MOBILITY OF CANADIANS

L. Stone has completed a revised Census monograph on the geographic mo­b i l i t y of Canadians. The work w i l l appear i n two separate volumes, one dealing with the explanation of the frequency d i s t r i b u t i o n of m o b i l i t y and the other t r e a t i n g the occupational composition of migration streams among Canadian regions. In the course of t h i s work a s p e c i a l c l a s s of models has been.developed for the a n a l y s i s of population composition through the a p p l i c a t i o n of techniques for the m u l t i v a r i a t e a n a l y s i s of contingency tables.

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DOCTORAL DISSERTATIONS

Three d i s s e r t a t i o n projects were brought Co completion during 1976-1977:

An Economic Analysis of the Young Adult's Decision to Form a Household Separate from the Parental Unit

Martha H i l l , a candidate i n Economics now working at the I n s t i t u t e f o r S o c i a l Research of the U n i v e r s i t y of Michigan, investigated decision making by young adults about separate household formation. Using the University of Michigan Survey Research Center Panel Study of Income Dy­namics she analyzed the " s p l i t d e c i s i o n " of young adults by simultane­ously analyzing four basic decisions facing them—the schooling d e c i s i o n , the d e c i s i o n to work f u l l - t i m e , the decision to marry, and the decision to form a household separate from the parental household. R. Lee super­vised t h i s research.

Intragenerational M o b i l i t y i n the United States and Japan

Using comparable sample survey data on work h i s t o r i e s i n Yokohama and D e t r o i t , Rex Y. Leghorn, a doctoral candidate i n Sociology, studied the rate of job changing i n the two c i t i e s and the impact of i n s t i t u t i o n a l , organizatonal, i n d u s t r i a l , and educational c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s on the proba­b i l i t y that i n d i v i d u a l s w i l l change employers at d i f f e r e n t ages. A l ­though workers i n Detroit are twice as l i k e l y to move as t h e i r counter­parts i n Yokohama, there i s no i n t e r c i t y d i f f e r e n c e i n the marginal im­pact of experience on the p r o b a b i l i t y of m o b i l i t y . The proportionate d e c l i n e i n the l i k e l i h o o d of m o b i l i t y associated with each a d d i t i o n a l year of experience remains e s s e n t i a l l y constant across workers In d i f ­ferent i n d u s t r i e s , f i r m s i z e groups, and c i t i e s . P. Siegel and R. Cole were co-chairman of t h i s research. In the f a l l , Mr. Leghorn w i l l be an A s s i s t a n t Professor of Sociology at Emory U n i v e r s i t y , A t l a n t a .

The I n t e r a c t i o n Between Female Labor Force P a r t i c i p a t i o n and F e r t i l i t y i n Mexico C i t y

Stanley Smith, a doctoral candidate i n Economics now an Assistant Pro­fessor of Economics at the U n i v e r s i t y of F l o r i d a , formulated a model for studying the r e l a t i o n between women's work patterns and f e r t i l i t y i n Mexico C i t y . The findings are consistent with the model which postu­l a t e s that female labor force p a r t i c i p a t i o n (FLFP) and f e r t i l i t y are j o i n t l y determined by a common set of Independent v a r i a b l e s rather than d i r e c t l y a f f e c t i n g one another. When FLFP i s defined simply as any type of work, no s i g n i f i c a n t r e l a t i o n s h i p emerges between FLFP and f e r t i l i t y . However, working women i n jobs incompatible with c h i l d c a r e have consid­erably lower f e r t i l i t y l e v e l s than non workers, while workers i n compat­i b l e jobs have about the same f e r t i l i t y as non workers, or even higher.

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I t was also found that f e r t i l i t y has a s i g n i f i c a n t p o s i t i v e association with part-time work i n the t r a d i t i o n a l sector. Since t h i s type of work involves l i t t l e c o n f l i c t with c h i l d c a r e , i t would appear that excess f e r t i l i t y forces some women to work In order to supplement family i n ­come, and that the work they choose i s the type most compatible with c h i l d c a r e . E. Mueller supervised t h i s research.

Three d i s s e r t a t i o n s approved i n an e a r l i e r year are i n progress:

The Correlates of Family Structure i n Taiwan

Robert K l e i n , a doctoral candidate i n Sociology now on the f a c u l t y of Fordham U n i v e r s i t y , i s conducting a study that examines c o r r e l a t e s of family structure, attempts to develop a m u l t i v a r i a t e model of demograph­i c *and socioeconomic determinants of family s t r u c t u r e , and examines changes i n family s t r u c t u r e at two points i n time. M. White of the Soc­iology Department i s chairman and R. Freedman i s a member of h i s commit­tee.

R e s i d e n t i a l D i s t r i b u t i o n of Ethnic Groups

Karol K r o t k i , J r . , a doctoral candidate i n Sociology now at S t a t i s t i c s Canada, Ottawa, i s attempting to measure changes i n population c l u s t e r ­ing among several ethnic groups using a wide range of segregation index­es. The research i s based on 1970 and e a r l i e r Census data for a sample of metropolitan areas. L. Kish and D. Goldberg are cochairmen of the d i s s e r t a t i o n committee.

E f f e c t s of Community Residence on F e r t i l i t y

P a t r i c i a Pastor's research involves.; an "analysis of the a d d i t i v e and non-a d d i t i v e e f f e c t s of community l e v e l v a r i a b l e s on the f e r t i l i t y of T a i ­wanese women. Of p a r t i c u l a r i n t e r e s t i s an assessment of the contribu­t i o n which the i n c l u s i o n of community c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s makes to the ex­planation of the f e r t i l i t y a t t i t u d e s and behavior of i n d i v i d u a l couples. The data for the study are three KAP surveys of married women i n Taiwan, information about l o c a l areas from Taiwan 1s household r e g i s t e r , and measures of the a c t i v i t i e s of the n a t i o n a l family planning program i n various l o c a l communities. This research Is under the supervision of A. Hermalin. Ms. Pastor, a doctoral candidate i n Sociology, i s on the s t a f f of the F e r t i l i t y and Family Planning Studies Section of the Popu­l a t i o n D i v i s i o n , the United Nations, New York.

"'B

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P r o p o s a l s were f o r m a l l y approved and c o n s i d e r a b l e progress made d u r i n g the c u r r e n t year on the f o l l o w i n g t h i r t e e n d i s s e r t a t i o n s :

Human C a p i t a l i n P r o d u c t i o n : An A n a l y s i s of the Demand f o r Labor by E d u c a t i o n and E x p e r i e n c e

M i c h a e l A r t h u r , a d o c t o r a l c a n d i d a t e i n Economics, i s i n v e s t i g a t i n g q u e s t i o n s r e g a r d i n g the demand f o r v a r i o u s types of l a b o r as p r o d u c t i v e f a c t o r s , " t y p e s " b e i n g determined by t h e i r accumulated s t o c k of human c a p i t a l . The d a t a f o r the study come from the d i s a g g r e g a t e d p r o d u c t i o n account f o r the U.S. developed by G o l l o p and Sorgenson. I n t h i s a n a l y ­s i s , l a b o r I s d i f f e r e n t i a t e d by a c q u i r e d f o r m a l e d u c a t i o n and e x p e r i e n c e , and i n t e r e s t i s focused on the r e l a t i o n s h i p between the monetary r e t u r n s to s c h o o l i n g and age and the r e l a t i v e s i z e of each e d u c a t i o n - e x p e r i e n c e group. The aims of the r e s e a r c h are 1) to a n a l y z e the market e x p e r i ­ence o f r e c e n t c o l l e g e graduates r e l a t i v e to those w i t h l e s s e d u c a t i o n and of d i f f e r e n t ages., 2) u s i n g a t r a n s l o g p r o d u c t i o n f u n c t i o n , to t e s t the s e p a r a b i l i t y r e s t r i c t i o n s i m p l i e d by an aggregate l a b o r i n p u t and e s t i m a t e the e l a s t i c i t i e s of s u b s t i t u t i o n between d i f f e r e n t e d u c a t i o n -e x p e r i e n c e groups, and 3) to develop a comprehensive h u m a n - c a p i t a l - o r i ­ented supply and demand model of the l a b o r market as a framework f o r a n a l y z i n g the p r o s p e c t s of r e c e n t and f u t u r e c o l l e g e graduates. J . Kmenta o f the Economics Department i s chairman and R. Lee i s a member of t h i s d i s s e r t a t i o n committee. M. A r t h u r w i l l be a t The Urban I n s t i t u t e , Washington, D.C., b e g i n n i n g i n the f a l l , 1977.

Household Composition E f f e c t s on Household E x p e n d i t u r e P a t t e r n s

Roberta Barnes i s a n a l y z i n g the e f f e c t s o f d i f f e r e n t i a l age/sex compo­s i t i o n among households on household spending f o r a number of budget items. A l s o of i n t e r e s t a r e n o n l i n e a r i t i e s i n the income-consumption r e l a t i o n s h i p , an i n t e r a c t i o n between income and age/sex c o m p o s i t i o n , and economics of s c a l e i n consumption. Data gathered i n r u r a l I n d i a , c o v e r ­i n g a p p r o x i m a t e l y 4,000 households, a r e used to e s t i m a t e the e m p i r i c a l model. R. Lee i s chairman of t h i s d i s s e r t a t i o n committee. I n the f a l l o f 1977 Ms. Barnes j o i n s the s t a f f of the Bureau of Labor S t a t i s t i c s , Washington, D.C.

E f f e c t of Economic and Demographic F a c t o r s on Household D e c i s i o n s Re­g a r d i n g E d u c a t i o n o f C h i l d r e n i n Guatemala

C a r o l C l a r k , a d o c t o r a l c a n d i d a t e i n Economics, i s u s i n g household s u r ­vey data c o l l e c t e d i n Guatemala t o study the demand f o r e d u c a t i o n i n a d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r y . The o b j e c t i v e s o f her r e s e a r c h , which i s funded by the NIH Economic Demography g r a n t , i s to l e a r n : a) how f a m i l y s i z e and s p a c i n g a f f e c t c h i l d r e n 1 s s c h o o l i n g , b) how the o p p o r t u n i t y c o s t of c h i l d r e n ' s time i s a f f e c t e d by f a m i l y c o m p o s i t i o n and economic c i r c u m ­s t a n c e s of the household, c) how the o p p o r t u n i t y c o s t of c h i l d r e n ' s t i m e ,

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t o g e t h e r w i t h o t h e r f a c t o r s , a f f e c t s demand f o r s c h o o l i n g , and d) wheth­er i n d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s , where c h i l d r e n can p a r t i c i p a t e i n income producing a c t i v i t i e s , t h e r e i s Indued a t r a d e - o f f between c h i l d quan­t i t y and c h i l d q u a l i t y as human r e s o u r c e s models p o s t u l a t e . E. M u e l l e r i s chairman of her d i s s e r t a t i o n committee. Ms. C l a r k w i l l spend next year I n Guatemala working on the d a t a .

The P r o s p e c t s f o r R a c i a l I n t e g r a t i o n i n Neighborhoods: An A n a l y s i s of R e s i d e n t i a l P r e f e r e n c e s i n the D e t r o i t M e t r o p o l i t a n Area

Diane Colasanto i s examining the f a c t o r s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h acceptance of o r d e s i r e f o r r a c i a l l y mixed neighborhoods by D e t r o i t area r e s i d e n t s . The d a t a were gathered i n the 1976 D e t r o i t Area Study, which was s u p p o r t ­ed i n p a r t by the P o p u l a t i o n S t u d i e s Center. The a n a l y s i s w i l l attempt to i d e n t i f y s e t s o f c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s f o r b l a c k s and whites l e a d i n g to f a ­v o r a b l e a t t i t u d e s toward r e s i d e n t i a l i n t e g r a t i o n . C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s con­s i d e r e d a r e : b e l i e f s about the h o u s i n g market, g e n e r a l r a c i a l a t t i t u d e s , c o n t a c t w i t h o t h e r r a c e , housing needs and p e r s o n a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . The a n a l y s i s w i l l a l s o c o n s i d e r some l i k e l y f u t u r e .trends i n r a c i a l i n t e g r a ­t i o n , based on c u r r e n t l e v e l s of acceptance and c u r r e n t demographic c h a r ­a c t e r i s t i c s o f the D e t r o i t p o p u l a t i o n . R. F a r l e y and H. Schuman a r e s u ­p e r v i s i n g t h i s r e s e a r c h . Ms. Colosanto w i l l be an A s s i s t a n t P r o f e s s o r of S o c i o l o g y a t the U n i v e r s i t y of Wisconsin-Madison i n the f a l l .

Husband-Wife Agreement on D e s i r e d Family Si2e

John C z a j k a , a d o c t o r a l c a n d i d a t e i n S o c i o l o g y , i s s t u d y i n g the d e t e r m i ­nants of husband-wife agreement about f a m i l y s i z e d e s i r e s , u s i n g d a t a from the 1975 U.S. " A t t i t u d e s About C h i l d r e n " s u r v e y , c o l l e c t e d by L o i s Hoffman as p a r t of the t r a n s n a t i o n a l Value of C h i l d r e n s t u d y , and d a t a from the f i r s t wave of the P r i n c e t o n Study. Consensus between m a r i t a l p a r t n e r s i s h y p o t h e s i z e d t o a r i s e from t h r e e s o u r c e s : s e l e c t i o n , shared e x p e r i e n c e s and s t a t u s e s , and i n t e r p e r s o n a l i n f l u e n c e w i t h i n the m a r i t a l dyad. The a n a l y s i s a l s o c o n s i d e r s the a b i l i t y of husbands and wives to p r e d i c t each o t h e r ' s f a m i l y s i z e d e s i r e s and w i l l e s t i m a t e the p o s s i b l e d i s t o r t i o n s a r i s i n g from r e l i a n c e upon s i n g l e spouse models and d a t a s o u r c e s . K. Mason i s s u p e r v i s i n g t h i s r e s e a r c h . Mr. Czajka j o i n s the s t a f f a t the U n i v e r s i t y of C a l i f o r n i a , B e r k e l e y , as a L e c t u r e r i n S o c i ­o l o g y i n the f a l l .

The Labor Supply of M a r r i e d Women:"'An A n a l y s i s of the A l l o c a t i o n of Time t o Market and Nonmarket A c t i v i t i e s

Barbara Devaney, an Economics d o c t o r a l c a n d i d a t e , i s u s i n g d a t a from the n i n t h wave of the U n i v e r s i t y of M i c h i g a n P a n e l Study of Income Dynamics (1968-1972) to extend a model developed by James Heckman (Econometrica, 1974). B r i e f l y , the model m a i n t a i n s t h a t a woman works i f the wage she can r e c e i v e i n the market s e c t o r exceeds the v a l u e of her time i n the

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home. Assuming f l e x i b l e work hours, a working woman w i l l a d j u s t her hours of work so as to equate the market and home wages. By e s t i m a t ­i n g the l a b o r supply (or hours of work) and wage e q u a t i o n s , Ms. Devaney w i l l o b t a i n e s t i m a t e s of the parameters u n d e r l y i n g the market wage, home wage, and l a b o r supply f u n c t i o n s . The e f f e c t s of c h i l d r e n by age on the v a l u e of time a t home, on the market wage, and the e x t e n t o f l a ­bor f o r c e p a r t i c i p a t i o n a r e d i s c u s s e d . R. Lee i s s u p e r v i s i n g t h i s r e ­s e a r c h . Ms. Devaney w i l l be employed a t Mathematica P o l i c y Research, Washington, D.C., i n the f a l l .

Community S t r u c t u r a l F a c t o r s i n • I n d i v i d u a l F e r t i l i t y i n P e n i n s u l a r M a l a y s i a

Chee Kim Loy, a d o c t o r a l c a n d i d a t e i n S o c i o l o g y , i s examining the e f ­f e c t s o f community s t r u c t u r a l f a c t o r s on i n d i v i d u a l f e r t i l i t y i n P e n i n ­s u l a r M a l a y s i a . He i s u s i n g the 1970 M a l a y s i a Census Post Enumeration Survey, and i s augmenting t h a t data s e t w i t h aggregate l e v e l data from an unpublished M a l a y s i a n d a t a bank. The d i s s e r t a t i o n seeks to s e p a r a t e the e f f e c t s of s t r u c t u r a l v a r i a b l e s from those a t the i n d i v i d u a l l e v e l . An a d d i t i o n a l g o a l o f the r e s e a r c h i s to assess the impact on f e r t i l i t y of o r g a n i z e d f a m i l y p l a n n i n g e f f o r t s i n M a l a y s i a . T h i s r e s e a r c h i s un­der the s u p e r v i s i o n o f W. Mason.

O c c u p a t i o n a l S e g r e g a t i o n by Sex: An A n a l y s i s of the Determinants of the Sex Composition o f the Occupations of Female Workers

J e n n i f e r Madans, a d o c t o r a l student i n S o c i o l o g y , i s i n v e s t i g a t i n g the i s s u e o f whether commonly h e l d b e l i e f s about the causes o f o c c u p a t i o n ­a l s e g r e g a t i o n by sex can e x p l a i n the d i s t r i b u t i o n of female workers a c r o s s o c c u p a t i o n s s c a l e d a c c o r d i n g to sex c o m p o s i t i o n . The t h e o r e t i ­c a l framework i n c o r p o r a t e s a s p e c t s of the s t a t u s a t t a i n m e n t model, hu­man c a p i t a l t h e o r y , and s o c i a l i z a t i o n t h e o r y , but the c e n t r a l theme concerns the importance of t r a d i t i o n a l sex norms i n d e t e r m i n i n g the n a t u r e and e x t e n t of women's l a b o r f o r c e p a r t i c i p a t i o n . Two data s e t s are used i n the a n a l y s i s — t h e 1973 D e t r o i t Area Study and the 30-44 y e a r o l d female cohort of the N a t i o n a l L o n g i t u d i n a l Survey. The a n a l ­y s i s focuses on changes i n o c c u p a t i o n a l sex c o m p o s i t i o n over the em­ployment h i s t o r y , u s i n g work h i s t o r i e s from both data s e t s . Ms. Madans w i l l j o i n the Department o f Epidemiology, Y a l e U n i v e r s i t y School o f Me­d i c i n e i n the f a l l . Her r e s e a r c h i s under the s u p e r v i s i o n of W. Mason.

Growth and D i s t r i b u t i o n o f S c h o o l i n g i n Twentieth Century U n i t e d S t a t e s

Robert Mare, a d o c t o r a l c a n d i d a t e i n S o c i o l o g y , i s u s i n g two r e c e n t l a r g e - s c a l e surveys of the c i v i l i a n male U n i t e d S t a t e s p o p u l a t i o n to i n v e s t i g a t e two problems, under a grant from NSF. F i r s t , he i s attempt­i n g t o account f o r the U.S. s e c u l a r i n c r e a s e i n grades of s c h o o l com­p l e t e d and s c h o o l c o n t i n u a t i o n r a t i o s by s i m u l t a n e o u s l y examining the

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i n d i v i d u a l l e v e l e f f e c t s of f a m i l y socioeconomic background and the g l o b a l e f E e c t s of macroeconomic, demographic, and o r g a n i z a t i o n a l chang­es. Second, he I s examining the time s e r i e s of cohort s p e c i f i c e f f e c t s o f f a m i l y socioeconomic background on s c h o o l c o n t i n u a t i o n p r o b a b i l i t i e s and grades o f s c h o o l completed f o r c o h o r t s born i n the 20th c e n t u r y . The models examine the impact o f g l o b a l economic, p o l i t i c a l , and o r g a ­n i z a t i o n a l f a c t o r s on the r e l a t i o n s h i p between f a m i l y socioeconomic background and e d u c a t i o n a l a t t a i n m e n t . W. Mason i s chairman of the committee. In the f a l l Mr. Mare w i l l be an A s s i s t a n t P r o f e s s o r of S o c i o l o g y a t the U n i v e r s i t y o f Wisconsin-Madison.

The B i r t h of the Business C y c l e

The d i s s e r t a t i o n o f P h i l i p M i r o w s k i , a d o c t o r a l c a n d i d a t e i n Economics, develops a new theory o f the b u s i n e s s c y c l e i n the c o n t e x t of B r i t a i n b e f o r e the i n d u s t r i a l r e v o l u t i o n . The theory i s t e s t e d on data s e r i e s f o r wages, p r i c e s and i n t e r e s t r a t e s f o r the p e r i o d . Input-output co­e f f i c i e n t s f o r a m u l t i s e c t o r a l d e s c r i p t i o n of the p r e i n d u s t r i a l economy a r e a l s o d e r i v e d , and p l a y a c e n t r a l r o l e i n the e x p l a n a t i o n of the cy­c l e s . Demographic v a r i a b l e s w i l l be r e l a t e d to the economic f l u c t u a ­t i o n s . Some of the d a t a s e r i e s are b e i n g assembled from o r i g i n a l sources i n England. G. Wright i s chairman and R. Lee i s a member of the committee.

Labor Force P a r t i c i p a t i o n of Women and F e r t i l i t y i n Japan

Makoto Nohara, a d o c t o r a l c a n d i d a t e i n S o c i o l o g y , i s working on the i n ­t e r r e l a t i o n s between the l a b o r f o r c e p a r t i c i p a t i o n of women and t h e i r r e p r o d u c t i v e b e h a v i o r i n Japan. He i s u s i n g the data from the Japanese v e r s i o n o f the World F e r t i l i t y Survey. R. Freedman i s s u p e r v i s o r o f t h i s r e s e a r c h . Mr. Nohara i s c u r r e n t l y a t the I n s t i t u t e of P o p u l a t i o n Problems, M i n i s t r y o f H e a l t h and W e l f a r e , Tokyo.

I n i t i a t i o n o f C o n t r a c e p t i o n i n Taiwan

M. K h a l i d S i d d i q u i , a d o c t o r a l student i n S o c i o l o g y , I s s t u d y i n g the demographic and s o c i a l f a c t o r s which a r e r e l a t e d to the b i r t h i n t e r v a l i n which c o n t r a c e p t i o n i s begun i n Taiwan. U s i n g data from the 1973 KAP survey of m a r r i e d women, he i s a l s o i n v e s t i g a t i n g the f a c t o r s r e ­l a t e d to the use of c o n t r a c e p t i o n . . f o r s p a c i n g b i r t h s . R. Freedman and A. Hermalin a r e s u p e r v i s o r s o f t h i s p r o j e c t .

26

PROFESSIONAL AND PUBLIC SERVICE ACTIVITIES

P r o f e s s i o n a l s t a f f members of the Center p a r t i c i p a t e i n a wide range of p r o f e s s i o n a l s e r v i c e s and a c t i v i t i e s which c o n t r i b u t e to the d e v e l o p ­ment of demographic r e s e a r c h and p u b l i c p o l i c y d e c i s i o n s . Some of these a c t i v i t i e s a r e i n t e r n a t i o n a l i n scope and are l i s t e d i n the suc­ceeding s e c t i o n ; o t h e r s a r e p r o f e s s i o n a l c o n t r i b u t i o n s to U.S. a c t i v i ­t i e s . Some of the major p r o f e s s i o n a l and p u b l i c s e r v i c e assignments undertaken by s t a f f members d u r i n g the year a r e l i s t e d below. These a c t i v i t i e s a r e r e l a t e d to ongoing Center a c t i v i t i e s , but are not p a r t of the immediate U n i v e r s i t y assignments o f the s t a f f .

Lolagene C. Coombs

Member, Review P a n e l f o r the F o r d - R o c k e f e l l e r P o p u l a t i o n P o l i c y Re­s e a r c h Program

O r g a n i z e r , s e s s i o n on the "Measurement', R e l i a b i l i t y and V a l i d i t y o f F e r t i l i t y A t t i t u d e s , " f o r the 1977 General Conference of the I n t e r ­n a t i o n a l Union f o r the S c i e n t i f i c Study of P o p u l a t i o n , Mexico C i t y

C o n s u l t a n t , World Bank, P o p u l a t i o n and Human Resources D i v i s i o n E d i t o r i a l Reader: Demography; S o c i a l B i o l o g y ; Canadian S t u d i e s i n

P o p u l a t i o n

Reynolds F a r l e y

Member, P u b l i c a t i o n s Committee of the P o p u l a t i o n A s s o c i a t i o n of Amer­i c a ; A r n o l d Rose Monograph S e r i e s Committee; Census A d v i s o r y Com­m i t t e e on P o p u l a t i o n S t a t i s t i c s

Program Chairman, 1977 meetings of the P o p u l a t i o n A s s o c i a t i o n of America

A c t i n g Chairman, Department o f S o c i o l o g y , January-May, 1977 E d i t o r i a l Board, Urban A f f a i r s Q u a r t e r l y E d i t o r i a l Reader: American S o c i o l o g i c a l Review; American J o u r n a l of

S o c i o l o g y ; S o c i o l o g i c a l Focus; R u r a l S o c i o l o g y ; The American S o c i o ­l o g i s t ; Urban A f f a i r s Q u a r t e r l y

Deborah Freedman

Member, Board of the P o p u l a t i o n A s s o c i a t i o n o f America; A d v i s o r y Com­m i t t e e o f the C o n t r a c t D i v i s i o n of the Center f o r P o p u l a t i o n Re­s e a r c h , NICHD

E d i t o r i a l Reader: Demography; S o c i a l Forces

Ronald Freedman

Member, N a t i o n a l Academy o f S c i e n c e s , S t e e r i n g Committee on World Food and N u t r i t i o n Study, Committees on P o p u l a t i o n and Demography, and on S c h o l a r l y Communication w i t h the People's R e p u b l i c of C h i n a ; Committee on Comparative A n a l y s i s o f F e r t i l i t y , I n t e r n a t i o n a l Union f o r the S c i e n t i f i c Study o f P o p u l a t i o n ; N a t i o n a l C o u n c i l , A l a n

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Ronald Freedman (continued)

Guttmacher I n s t i t u t e ; T e c h n i c a l A d v i s o r y Committee, World F e r t i l i t y Survey; E x t e r n a l A d v i s o r y Panel on P o p u l a t i o n , World Bank

Chairman, I n t e r n a t i o n a l A d v i s o r y Committee, East-West P o p u l a t i o n I n ­s t i t u t e of the East-West Center, Hawaii

C o n s u l t a n t , Academia S i n i c a ; Taiwan P r o v i n i c a l I n s t i t u t e of Family P l a n n i n g ; Taiwan M i n i s t r y of Che I n t e r i o r ; Taiwan J o i n t Commission f o r R u r a l R e c o n s t r u c t i o n

David Goldberg

Member, Review P a n e l , F o r d - R o c k e f e l l e r P o p u l a t i o n P o l i c y Research Program

A l b e r t Hermalin

S e c r e t a r y , Committee on Demographic Aspects o f Family P l a n n i n g Pro­grams, I n t e r n a t i o n a l Union f o r the S c i e n t i f i c Study of P o p u l a t i o n (IUSSP)

O r g a n i z e r , s e s s i o n on T e c h n i c a l Advances i n E v a l u a t i n g Family P l a n ­n i n g Programs, IUSSP General Conference, Mexico C i t y , August 1977

C o n s u l t a n t , on Manual of Mechods f o r Measuring the Impact o f F a m i l y P l a n n i n g Programs on F e r t i l i t y , U n i t e d N a t i o n s P o p u l a t i o n D i v i s i o n

Reviewer, N a t i o n a l Science Foundation; Canada C o u n c i l E d i t o r i a l Reader: Demography; American S o c i o l o g i c a l Review; S t u d i e s

i n F a m i l y P l a n n i n g

L e s l i e K i s h

Member, Committee on Demography- and F e r t i l i t y of the N a t i o n a l Academy o f Science

P r e s i d e n t , American S t a t i s t i c a l A s s o c i a t i o n •i

John Knodel

E d i t o r i a l Reader: The A m e r i c a n . S o c i o l o g i s t ; Demography; The J o u r n a l of Family H i s t o r y ; Comparative S t u d i e s i n S o c i e t y and H i s t o r y ; S t u d i e s i n F a m i l y P l a n n i n g ; The American J o u r n a l of S o c i o l o g y ; and the East-West P o p u l a t i o n Paper S e r i e s

Ronald Lee

Member, Ad Hoc Group of E x p e r t s on Demographic P r o j e c t i o n s of the U n i t e d N a t i o n s

O r g a n i z e r o f s e s s i o n f o r the August 1978 I n t e r n a t i o n a l Union f o r the S c i e n t i f i c Study o f P o p u l a t i o n conference on Economic Demography to be h e l d i n H e l s i n k i

Reviewer, N a t i o n a l Science Foundation; N a t i o n a l I n s t i t u t e s o f H e a l t h ; S o c i a l S e c u r i t y A d m i n i s t r a t i o n

-28-

Ronald Lee (continued)

E d i t o r i a l Reader: P r i n c e t o n U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s ; J o u r n a l of the Ameri­can S t a t i s t i c a l . A s s o c i a t i o n ; Demography; J o u r n a l of Economic H i s ­t o r y ; E x p l o r a t i o n s in Economic H i s t o r y

i

Karen Mason

Member, Board of D i r e c t o r s , P o p u l a t i o n A s s o c i a t i o n of America C o n s u l t i n g E d i t o r , American J o u r n a l o f S o c i o l o g y A s s o c i a t e E d i t o r , S o c i o l o g i c a l Methods and Research Reviewer, N a t i o n a l Science Foundation; N a t i o n a l I n s t i t u t e of M e n t a l

H e a l t h

E d i t o r i a l Reader: Demography; American S o c i o l o g i c a l Review

W i l l i a m Mason

Member, A d v i s o r y and P l a n n i n g Committee, S o c i a l Science Research C o u n c i l Center f o r C o o r d i n a t i o n of Research on S o c i a l I n d i c a t o r s

A s s o c i a t e E d i t o r , American S o c i o l o g i c a l Review; J o u r n a l of the Ameri­can S t a t i s t i c a l A s s o c i a t i o n

Baron Moots

E d i t o r i a l Reader: Demography

Eva M u e l l e r

C o n s u l t a n t , World Bank Reviewer, N a t i o n a l Science Foundation

Robert P o t t e r

Member, Subcommittee on N u t r i t i o n and F e r t i l i t y , Committee on I n t e r ­n a t i o n a l N u t r i t i o n Programs, N a t i o n a l Research C o u n c i l ; Committee on Demographic Aspects of Family P l a n n i n g Programs, I n t e r n a t i o n a l Union f o r the S c i e n t i f i c Study of P o p u l a t i o n

Leroy Stone

Member and c h a i r p e r s o n , P u b l i c a t i o n s Committee, Canadian P o p u l a t i o n S o c i e t y

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INTERNATIONAL ACTIVITIES

Of major importance i n the area of i n t e r n a t i o n a l a c t i v i t i e s i s the Cen­t e r ' s c o n t i n u i n g t r a i n i n g of f o r e i g n s t u d e n t s i n Ann A r b o r . The terms o f each award are arranged to make I t p o s s i b l e f o r s t u d e n t s to f u n c t i o n e f f e c t i v e l y i n the t r a i n i n g program. T r a i n i n g o p p o r t u n i t i e s were p r o ­v i d e d t h i s year f o r f o r e i g n s t u d e n t s from B r a z i l , England, M a l a y s i a , Norway, P a k i s t a n , and the P h i l i p p i n e s .

Members o f the Center's p r o f e s s i o n a l s t a f f have p a r t i c i p a t e d i n i n t e r ­n a t i o n a l c o n f e r e n c e s , v i s i t e d o t h e r c o u n t r i e s to l e a r n of demographic work b e i n g done, and a s s i s t e d i n v e s t i g a t o r s on p o p u l a t i o n r e s e a r c h i n s e v e r a l overseas a r e a s . A l i s t o f such a c t i v i t i e s o c c u r r i n g i n 1976-77 f o l l o w s .

Belgium

A. Hermalin served as r a p p o r t e u r f o r the seminar, " P a t t e r n s o f Response t o Family P l a n n i n g Programs," arranged by the I n t e r n a t i o n a l Union f o r the S c i e n t i f i c Study of P o p u l a t i o n (IUSSP) committee on Demographic As­p e c t s of F a m i l y Programs i n L i e g e , A p r i l 1977.

He a l s o gave a c o l l o q u i u m on l a c t a t i o n and n a t u r a l f e r t i l i t y to the I n t e r u n i v e r s i t y Programme i n Demography a t the V r i j e U n i v e r s i t e i t , B r u s s e l s , A p r i l 1977.

Columbia

J . Knodel v i s i t e d Bogata i n August 1976 and c o n f e r r e d w i t h s e v e r a l p e r ­sons i n v o l v e d i n demographic r e s e a r c h about p o s s i b l e c o l l a b o r a t i v e p r o ­j e c t s .

England !}

R. Freedman attended a meeting of the T e c h n i c a l A d v i s o r y Committee of the World F e r t i l i t y Survey (WFS) i n London, March 1977.

J . Knodel went to Cambridge, England i n September 1976 t o work w i t h the Cambridge Group f o r the H i s t o r y o f P o p u l a t i o n and S o c i a l S t r u c t u r e on a n a l y s i s o f data from German v i l l a g e g e n e a l o g i e s .

R. Lee c o n s u l t e d w i t h E. A. W r i g l e y and Roger S c h o f i e l d of the Cambridge Group f o r the H i s t o r y o f P o p u l a t i o n and S o c i a l S t r u c t u r e , c o n c e r n i n g c o l l a b o r a t i v e work w i t h t h e i r aggregate p a r i s h d a t a s e t . He a l s o p r e ­sented a paper a t a conference on the Economic H i s t o r y of B r i t a i n s i n c e 1700 h e l d i n Cambridge, England, January 2-8, 1977.

L. K i s h attended the seminar on Sampling E r r o r s , World F e r t i l i t y Survey, London, May 1977.

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France

I). Freedman attended a conference on " I n t e g r a t e d Approach to Improving the S t a t u s of Young Women i n Developing C o u n t r i e s , " sponsored by the Centre f o r Development of the O r g a n i z a t i o n f o r Economic C o o p e r a t i o n and Development, November 19-20, 1976, i n P a r i s .

R. Freedman was a d i s c u s s a n t i n a seminar on N a t u r a l F e r t i l i t y , spon­sored by the I n s t i t u t N a t i o n a l d'Etudes Demographiques and the Commit­t e e on Comparative F e r t i l i t y S t u d i e s of the IUSSP, i n P a r i s , March 1977. R. P o t t e r was a p a r t i c i p a n t i n the seminar. J . Knodel a l s o p a r t i c i p a t e d and presented a b r i e f paper on "Tables and Comments on P r e i n d u s t r i a l F e r t i l i t y i n S i x German V i l l a g e s . "

A. Hermalin was coauthor w i t h A. J a i n of a paper, " L a c t a t i o n and N a t u r a l F e r t i l i t y " presented a t the P a r i s seminar o n . N a t u r a l F e r t i l i t y .

Guatemala

Eva M u e l l e r and C a r o l C l a r k , i n c o o p e r a t i o n w i t h the I n s t i t u t o De Nu-t r i c i o n De Centro America Y Panama (INCAP), t e s t e d household survey i n ­struments i n Guatemala i n August 1976.

Hong Kong

R. Freedman spent time i n Hong Kong d i s c u s s i n g p o p u l a t i o n s t a t i s t i c s and the f a m i l y p l a n n i n g program i n Hong Kong w i t h members of the Depart­ment o f H e a l t h , the Census and S t a t i s t i c s Department and the Family P l a n n i n g A s s o c i a t i o n , d u r i n g March 1977.

Japan

I n March 1977 R. Freedman v i s i t e d the M i n i s t r y of H e a l t h and Welfare i n Tokyo to c o n s u l t about r e s e a r c h on f e r t i l i t y . He a l s o d i s c u s s e d w i t h Mr. M. Nohara, a former Center s t u d e n t , h i s a n a l y s i s of WFS d a t a .

Mexico

E. M u e l l e r p a r t i c i p a t e d i n a seminar on "Household Models of Economic-Demographic D e c i s i o n - M a k i n g i n Developing C o u n t r i e s , " sponsored by the IUSSP Committee on Economic Demography, i n Mexico, November 1976.

Taiwan

R. Freedman v i s i t e d Taiwan i n March 1977 to c o n f e r w i t h a number of agencies t h a t a r e c o l l a b o r a t i n g on r e s e a r c h w i t h the P o p u l a t i o n S t u d i e s Center.

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CONFERENCES, COLLOQUIA, PAPERS

P a r t of the p r o f e s s i o n a l a c t i v i t i e s of the Center s t a f f c o n s i s t s of p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n s p e c i a l c o n f e r e n c e s , g i v i n g c o l l o q u i a or r e s e a r c h sem­i n a r s a t o t h e r u n i v e r s i t i e s , and the p r e s e n t a t i o n of papers a t p r o f e s ­s i o n a l meetings. P a r t i c i p a t i o n i n such a c t i v i t i e s d u r i n g 1976-1977 i s g i v e n below.

Lolagene C. Coombs

Gave a seminar on "The Measurement o f P r e f e r e n c e s " f o r the P o p u l a t i o n and Human Resources D i v i s i o n of the I n t e r n a t i o n a l Bank f o r Recon­s t r u c t i o n and Development, Washington, D.C., December 9, 1976.

Conference p a r t i c i p a n t and l e a d e r o f s e s s i o n on P o p u l a t i o n , P r o j e c t on A s i a S t u d i e s i n E d u c a t i o n (UM) Conference on U n i t e d S t a t e s and Southeast A s i a , Grand R a p i d s ; March 18-19, 1977.

Leader f o r luncheon s e s s i o n on "Sex P r e f e r e n c e : How and»Why.Should We Measure I t ? , " P o p u l a t i o n A s s o c i a t i o n of America, S t . L o u i s , A p r i l 21, 1977.

Reynolds F a r l e y

P a r t i c i p a n t , Conference on P u b l i c Use F i l e s ( p o s s i b l e tape f i l e s of samples from the 1940 and 1950 c e n s u s ) , U n i v e r s i t y of W i s c o n s i n -Madison, June 27-30, 1976.

D i s c u s s a n t , Conference on S u c c e s s f u l Implementation of School Deseg­r e g a t i o n , M i c h i g a n S t a t e U n i v e r s i t y , J u l y 9-11, 1976.

P r e s e n t e d a paper, "Can Governmental P o l i c i e s I n t e g r a t e S c h o o l s ? , " Annual Meeting o f the American S o c i o l o g i c a l A s s o c i a t i o n , September 1, 1976.

P r e s e n t e d t e s t i m o n y , c o n s i s t i n g of a paper e n t i t l e d " R a c i a l Segrega­t i o n i n Schools and Neighborhoods," b e f o r e the Subcommittee on C i v ­i l and C o n s t i t u t i o n a l R i g h t s pf the Committee on the J u d i c i a r y o f the House of R e p r e s e n t a t i v e s , Washington, D.C, September 22, 1976.

Gave a c o l l o q u i u m on "Trends i n the S o c i a l and Economic S t a t u s of B l a c k s : Have the Gains o f the 1960s Disappeared i n the 1970s?" a t Georgetown U n i v e r s i t y , October 14, 1976.

Presented a paper on "Trends i n R a c i a l I n e q u a l i t y : How Much A f f i r m a ­t i v e A c t i o n Do We Need a t t h i s Time?" a t the c o n f e r e n c e , " I n e q u a l ­i t y and P u b l i c P o l i c y : The E t h i c s of A f f i r m a t i v e A c t i o n , " M i c h i ­gan S t a t e U n i v e r s i t y , Decemher 6, 1976, T h i s has been r e p r i n t e d i n a p u b l i c a t i o n b e a r i n g the same name as the t i t l e of the conference.

Presented a paper, "Trends i n R a c i a l S e g r e g a t i o n i n S c h o o l s " at a conference e n t i t l e d " I n t e g r a t e d E d u c a t i o n , " sponsored by the C i v i l R i g h t s L e a d e r s h i p Conference Fund, Washington, D.C, January 28, 1977.

Was a d i s c u s s a n t a t the conference on " L e t h a l Aspects o f Urban V i o ­l e n c e , " sponsored by the U n i v e r s i t y o f Wisconsin-Milwaukee, May 11-12, 1977.

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Deborah Freedman

Gave a talk, at the Center f o r Demography and Ecology, U n i v e r s i t y of

Wisconsin, A b r i i 1977, on the L o n g i t u d i n a l Study of C o r r e l a t e s of

Family Growtn.

Attended a conference on the Status of Women, sponsored by the Ameri­

can Assembly and the Women's Resource Center of Grand Rapids, A p r i l

1977.

Gave a colloquium j o i n t l y with E. Mueller i n March, 1977, at the

World Bank on "The Standard Package of Economic and Demographic

Questions" f o r use i n l e s s developed c o u n t r i e s .

Presented a paper i n February 1977, at the East-West Center i n Hawaii

on "The Economic C o r r e l a t e s of Family Growth."

Ronald Freedman

Spoke to c o l l o q u i a at the East-West Center, Hawaii, i n February 1977

and at the Center f o r Demography and Ecology at the U n i v e r s i t y of

Wisconsin i n A p r i l 1977.

Served as a d i s c u s s a n t at the Conference on Population and Economic

Change In Less Developed Countries, sponsored by U n i v e r s i t i e s - N a ­

t i o n a l Bureau Committee f o r Economic Research, at the U n i v e r s i t y of

Pennsylvania, September 30-0ctober 2, 1976.

Was a d i s c u s s a n t at the s e s s i o n on Population Education at the Annual

Meeting of the P o p u l a t i o n A s s o c i a t i o n of America, A p r i l 1977.

P a r t i c i p a t e d i n a s e s s i o n of the newly organized Committee on Popula­

t i o n and Demography of the N a t i o n a l Academy of Sciences, Washington

D.C., June 1977.

David Goldberg

Gave a colloquium on "The Segregation of Behavior and A t t i t u d e i n

Turkey and Mexico" at Stanford U n i v e r s i t y , February 1977.

A l b e r t Hermalin

Attended a workshop on the f e r t i l i t y impact of f a m i l y planning pro­

grams i n the United States, sponsored by 'the Center f o r P o p u l a t i o n

Research, NICHD, i n Bethesda, Maryland, February 1977.

John Knodel

Presented a paper on "Town and Country i n Nineteenth Century Germany:

A Review of Urban-Rural D i f f e r e n t i a l s i n Demographic Behavior" at

the S o c i a l Science H i s t o r y A s s o c i a t i o n , F i r s t Annual Meeting, P h i l ­

a d e l p h i a , October 29-31, 1976.

Gave a paper on "Natural F e r t i l i t y i n P r e i n d u s t r i a l Germany," at the

Population A s s o c i a t i o n of America Annual Meeting, St. Louis, A p r i l

20-23, 1977..

Gave a guest l e c t u r e on Family L i m i t a t i o n and F e r t i l i t y T r a n s i t i o n at

the U n i v e r s i t y of Utah Department of Sociology, December 1976.

-33-

Ronald Lee

Presented the paper, "Target F e r t i l i t y , Contraception and Aggregate

Rates" at the Population C o u n c i l i n J u l y , 1976; at the U n i v e r s i t y

of C a l i f o r n i a , Berkeley, i n October, 1976; and at the PAA meetings

i n St. L o u i s , A p r i l 1977.

Presented the paper, "An H i s t o r i c a l P e r s p e c t i v e on the Population Ex­

p l o s i o n " at a N a t i o n a l Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) Confer­

ence on Demographic and Economic Change i n Developing Countries

held i n P h i l a d e l p h i a i n September 1976; and at the U n i v e r s i t y of

C a l i f o r n i a at Berkeley i n October 1976.

Presented a seminar on "Economic-Demographic Waves i n the Twentieth

Century U.S." to an economic h i s t o r y f a c u l t y colloquium at Stanford

U n i v e r s i t y , October 1976.

Gave a seminar on "The Recent Decline In U.S. F e r t i l i t y " at the Popu­

l a t i o n Center of the U n i v e r s i t y of North C a r o l i n a , November 1976.

Presented the paper, " F e r t i l i t y , Age S t r u c t u r e and Income i n the U.S.

1947 to 1974" to the Economics Department at Johns Hopkins U n i v e r ­

s i t y , November 1976.

Presented the paper, " B r i t i s h Population i n the Eighteenth Century"

to a conference on the New Economic H i s t o r y of Great B r i t a i n , i n

Cambridge, England, January 1977.

Karen Mason

Gave a t a l k on "Women's Work and F e r t i l i t y , " at the C a r o l i n a Popula­

t i o n Center, U n i v e r s i t y of North C a r o l i n a , November 1976.

W i l l i a m Mason

Gave the f o l l o w i n g papers:

"Robustness and I d e n t i f i c a t i o n of Age, P e r i o d and Cohort E f f e c t s i n

the A n a l y s i s of D i s c r e t e A r c h i v a l Data" (with S. E. F i e n b e r g ) ,

American S t a t i s t i c a l A s s o c i a t i o n Annual Meeting, Boston, August

1976.

"A Short Course i n the Theory and A p p l i c a t i o n s of Joreskog's LISREL

ACOVS and SIFASP" (with R. Schoenberg and R. D. Mare), American

S o c i o l o g i c a l A s s o c i a t i o n Annual Meeting, New York, September 1976

" I d e n t i f i c a t i o n and E s t i m a t i o n of Age-Period-Cohort Models i n the

A n a l y s i s o f D i s c r e t e A r c h i v a l Data" (with S. E. Fienberg), at the

Department of Sociology, U n i v e r s i t y of Washington, March 1977.

" S t r u c t u r a l Equation Models with Latent Constructs: the Incorpora­

t i o n of Measurement E r r o r Assumptions i n t o Analyses of the A t t a i n

ment Process," a t the Laboratory f o r Socio-Environmental Studies,

N a t i o n a l I n s t i t u t e of Health, Washington, D.C, March 1977.

Eva Mueller

Was a d i s c u s s a n t at the U n i v e r s i t i e s N a t i o n a l Bureau conference on

"Population and Economic Change i n Less Developed C o u n t r i e s , " P h i l ­

a d e l p h i a , September 1976.

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Eva Mueller (continued)

Organized a s e s s i o n on "The Measurement of Employment and Unemploy­

ment i n Developing Nations" at the Annual Meeting of the P o p u l a t i o n

A s s o c a t i o n 6f America, St. Louis, A p r i l 1977. Also presented a pa­

per on "Design of In-Depth Employment Surveys f o r Human Resources

A n a l y s i s . "

Presented a seminar on "Standard Package of Economic and Demographic

Questions" at the World Bank, Washington, D.C, March 1977.

Robert P o t t e r

P a r t i c i p a t e d i n a N a t i o n a l I n s t i t u t e s of Health Conference on N u t r i ­t i o n and Human Reproduction, Bethesda, Maryland, February 13-16, 1977.

Paul S i e g e l

Presented a paper, "Ecology and Human Ecology," at a conference as­

s e s s i n g human ecology, sponsored by the American S o c i o l o g i c a l As­

s o c i a t i o n , at the U n i v e r s i t y of I l l i n o i s , A p r i l 19-20, 1977.

Leroy Stone

Presented seminars on "Canadian Population Trends and Related P u b l i c P o l i c y Issues" and on " M u l t i v a r i a t e A n a l y s i s of Contingency T a b l e s " at Queen U n i v e r s i t y , U n i v e r s i t y of Toronto, U n i v e r s i t y of Saskatch­ewan, and York U n i v e r s i t y , Canada, and at Brown U n i v e r s i t y , P r o v i ­dence.

Students a l s o p a r t i c i p a t e i n conferences and present papers at meetings.

In a d d i t i o n to Center seminars given by a number of students, some of

which are l i s t e d i n an e a r l i e r s e c t i o n of t h i s r e p o r t , the f o l l o w i n g

students have p a r t i c i p a t e d In these p r o f e s s i o n a l a c t i v i t i e s :

Diane Colasanto presented a paper on "The Use of R e s p o n s i b i l i t y Rules

i n Jury Decision-Making: M o r i s s e t t e R e v i s i t e d " (with Joseph Sanders),

at the Annual Meetings of the American S o c i o l o g i c a l A s s o c i a t i o n , New

York, August 1976.

Robert Mare presented a paper on "A Short Course i n the Theory and Ap­

p l i c a t i o n s of Joreskog's LISREL, ACOVS, and SIFASP" (with W. Mason and

Ronald Schoenberg), to the American S o c i o l o g i c a l A s s o c i a t i o n Methodol­

ogy S e c t i o n , New York, August 29, 1976. He a l s o presented a paper on

" S o c i a l Background and School Continuation D e c i s i o n s " at the Annual

Meeting of the P o p u l a t i o n A s s o c i a t i o n of America, St. L o u i s , A p r i l 22,

1977.

-35-

T o n i Richards presented a paper on " F e r t i l i t y D e c l i n e i n Germany: An Econometric A p p r a i s a l " at the Annual Meeting of the Population A s s o c i a ­t i o n of America, A p r i l 1977.

i

PUBLICATIONS AND MANUSCRIPTS IN PRESS

T h i s l i s t i n g i n c l u d e s manuscripts w r i t t e n by a member of the Center

s t a f f or a student apprentice (as author or coauthor) that have been

published or accepted f o r p u b l i c a t i o n s i n c e the l a s t annual report of

the Center was i s s u e d .

L i s t i n g s of the Center r e p r i n t s e r i e s and other a v a i l a b l e p u b l i c a t i o n s

by the s t a f f were c i r c u l a t e d i n 1976 to about 585 i n d i v i d u a l s , l i b r a r ­

i e s , and agencies working i n the p o p u l a t i o n f i e l d or i n d i c a t i n g an i n ­

t e r e s t i n demographic research and requesting i n c l u s i o n on the Center's

m a i l i n g l i s t . The Center f i l l e d about 2900 requests f o r s p e c i f i c pub­

l i c a t i o n s from people i n the U.S. and i n 35 f o r e i g n c o u n t r i e s .

In a d d i t i o n to requests f o r r e p r i n t s , members of the Center s t a f f r e ­

c e i v e d many i n q u i r i e s about research m a t e r i a l s that may be u s e f u l to

researchers i n other c o u n t r i e s . In the past year s t a f f members r e ­

sponded to w e l l over 100 such requests.

J . Chamie R e l i g i o u s D i f f e r e n t i a l s i n F e r t i l i t y : Lebanon, 1971, Population Studies 31(2), 1977.

The Lebanese C i v i l War: An I n v e s t i g a t i o n i n t o the

Causes, World A f f a i r s 139(3): 171-188, Winter 1976-77.

R e l i g i o u s Groups i n Lebanon: A D e s c r i p t i v e I n v e s t i g a ­

t i o n , I n t e r n a t i o n a l J o u r n a l of Middle East Studies,

forthcoming 1977.

M. C l a r k (with L a r r y W. DeBord, L a r r y T. G r i f f i n ) . Race and Sex

Influences i n the Schooling Process of R u r a l and Small-

Town Youth, Sociology and Education, A p r i l 1977.

L. Coombs (with Te-Hsiung Sun). Family Composition Preferences i n

a Developing C u l t u r e : The Case of Taiwan, 1973, f o r t h ­

coming i n Population Studies, March 1978.

Underlying Preferences f o r Family Composition: United

States - 1973, forthcoming p u b l i c a t i o n of the N a t i o n a l

Survey of Family Growth, U.S. Dept. of Health, Education

and Welfare, 1977. '

-36-

L. Coombs (with C. H. Coombs). "Don't Know"; Item Ambiguity or

Respondent Uncertainty? The P u b l i c Opinion Quarterly

41: 497-514, Winter 1976-77.

Levels of R e l i a b i l i t y i n F e r t i l i t y Survey Data: Taiwan,

forthcoming i n Studies i n Family Planning, 1977.

What Does Desired Family S i z e Mean?, forthcoming i n Per­

s p e c t i v e s , 1977.

(with G. McClelland, C. H. Coombs). Measurement and

A n a l y s i s of Family Composition Preferences, Chapter 9 i n

Population Psychology; Research and E d u c a t i o n a l Issues,

S. H. Newman and V. D. Thompson (Eds.),DHEW P u b l i c a t i o n

No. (NIH) 76-574, 1976.

(with C. .H. Coombs, J . C. L i n g o e s ) . S t o c h a s t i c Cumula­t i v e S c a l e s : I. Rationale and Some A p p l i c a t i o n s ; I I . The Algorithm, chapter i n the forthcoming book, Theory C o n s t r u c t i o n and Data A n a l y s i s i n the Behavioral S c i e n ­ces, Samuel Shye (Ed.)

R. F a r l e y Trends i n R a c i a l I n e q u a l i t i e s : Have the Gains of the

1960s Disappeared i n the 1970s?, American S o c i o l o g i c a l

Review 42: 189-208, A p r i l 1977.

School I n t e g r a t i o n and White F l i g h t : Further Evidence,

S o c i e t y 14(4): 38-41, May 1977.

D. Freedman (with E. M u e l l e r ) . Standard Package of Economic and De­

mographic Questions f o r Survey Use i n Less Developed

Countries, a manual f o r c o l l e c t i n g microeconomic data i n

household surveys, forthcoming p u b l i c a t i o n of The World

Bank, 1977.

I n t r o d u c t i o n to " F e r t i l i t y , A s p i r a t i o n s and Resources:

A Symposium on the E a s t e r l i n Hypothesis," Population and

Development Review 2(3,4): 411-415, September-December

1976.

R. Freedman (with Tze-Hwa Fan, Sou-Pen Wei and Mary Beth Weinberger)-

Trends i n F e r t i l i t y and i n the E f f e c t s o f Education on

F e r t i l i t y i n Taiwan, 1961-74, Studies i n Family Planning

8(1): 11-18, January 1977.

(with B. Moots, T. S. Sun and M. B. Weinberger). House­

hold Composition and Extended Kinship i n Taiwan, f o r t h ­

coming i n Population Studies.

-37-

D. Goldberg R e s i d e n t i a l L o c a t i o n and F e r t i l i t y , Population and De­

velopment , Ridker (Ed.), Baltimore: Johns Hopkins

Press, pp. 387-428, 1976.

A. Hermalin (with E. van de Walle). The C i v i l Code and N u p t i a l i t y :

E m p i r i c a l I n v e s t i g a t i o n of an Hypothesis, Population

Patterns i n the Past, R. Lee (Ed.), New York: Academic

Press, 1977.

S p a t i a l A n a l y s i s of Family Planning Program E f f e c t s i n

Taiwan, East-West P o p u l a t i o n I n s t i t u t e Paper S e r i e s ,

forthcoming.

(with A. J a i n , T. H. Sun). L a c t a t i o n and N a t u r a l Fer­

t i l i t y , forthcoming I n t e r n a t i o n a l Union f o r the S c i e n t i -

t i f i c Study of Population (IUSSP) p u b l i c a t i o n s e r i e s .

Avoiding an Embarrassment of Riches, i n Methods of Mea­

s u r i n g the Impact of Family Planning Programmes on Fer­

t i l i t y , United Nations P o p u l a t i o n D i v i s i o n , forthcoming.

L. K i s h (with D. W. Anderson, R. G. C o r n e l l ) . Optimal Gains,

from S t r a t i f i c a t i o n f o r Optimum and Approximately O p t i ­

mum S t r a t a Using a B i v a r i a t e Normal Model, J o u r n a l of

the American S t a t i s t i c a l A s s o c i a t i o n 71(356): 887-892,

December 1976.

M u l t i v a r i a t e and Multipurpose S t r a t i f i c a t i o n , J o u r n a l of

the American S t a t i s t i c a l A s s o c i a t i o n , forthcoming 1977.

J . Knodel (with Edward S h o r t e r ) . The R e l i a b i l i t y of Family Recon-

s t i t u t i o n Data on German V i l l a g e Genealogies ( O r t s s i p -

penbucher), Annales de Demographie H i s t o r i q u e , 1976.

(with M. J . Maynes)/ Urban and Rural Marriage Patterns

i n Imperial Germany, J o u r n a l of Family H i s t o r y 1(2):

129-168, Winter 1976.

(with Sauvaluck P i a m p i t i ) . Response R e l i a b i l i t y i n a

L o n g i t u d i n a l Survey i n T h a i l a n d , Studies i n Family P l a n ­

ning 8 ( 3 ) : 55-66, March 1977.

Family L i m i t a t i o n and the F e r t i l i t y T r a n s i t i o n : E v i ­

dence from the Age Patterns of F e r t i l i t y i n Europe and

A s i a , P o p u l a t i o n Studies, forthcoming, J u l y 1977.

Town and Country i n Nineteenth Century Germany: A Re­

view of Urban-Rural D i f f e r e n t i a l s i n Demographic•Behav­

i o r , S o c i a l Science H i s t o r y , forthcoming, Spring 1977.

-38-

J . Knodel The Influence of C h i l d M o r t a l i t y on F e r t i l i t y i n a

Natural F e r t i l i t y S e t t i n g : An A n a l y s i s of I n d i v i d u a l

L e v e l Data f o r Selected German V i l l a g e s , i n Natural F e r ­

t i l i t y , Jane Menken (Ed.), forthcoming.

The Influence of C h i l d M o r t a l i t y on F e r t i l i t y i n Europe­

an Populations i n the Past: Results from I n d i v i d u a l Da­

t a ( r e v i s i o n of p r e v i o u s l y published paper), i n The E f ­

f e c t s of Infant and C h i l d M o r t a l i t y on F e r t i l i t y , Samuel

H. Peterson (Ed.), New York: Academic Press, forthcoming.

(with H a l l i e K i n t n e r ) . The Impact of Breastfeeding Pat­

terns on the Biometric A n a l y s i s of Infant M o r t a l i t y ,

forthcoming i n Demography, November 1977.

R. Lee Demographic Forecasting and the E a s t e r l i n Hypothesis, P o p u l a t i o n and Development Review 2(3,4): 459-468, Sep­

tember-December 1976.

E d i t o r , Population Patterns i n the Past, New York: Aca­

demic Press, 1977. Includes the f o l l o w i n g chapters by

R. Lee: I n t r o d u c t i o n ; Methods and Models f o r A n a l y z i n g

H i s t o r i c a l S e r i e s of B i r t h s , Deaths and Marriages.

An H i s t o r i c a l P e r s p e c t i v e on Economic Aspects of the

P o p u l a t i o n E x p l o s i o n : The Case of P r e i n d u s t r i a l England,

forthcoming i n Population and Economic Change i n Less De­

veloped Countries, Richard E a s t e r l i n (Ed.)

B r i t i s h Population i n the 18th Century, i n A New Econo­

mic H i s t o r y of B r i t a i n , Roderick Floud and Donald

McCloskey (Eds.), Cambridge: Cambridge U n i v e r s i t y

Press, forthcoming.

W. Mason (with K. 0. Mason, H. H. Winsborough). Reply to Glenn,

American S o c i o l o g i c a l Review 41(5): 904-905, October

1976.

B. Moots (with A. K. J a i n ) . F e c u n d a b i l i t y Following the Discon­

t i n u a t i o n of IUD Use Among Taiwanese Women, B i o s o c i a l

Science 9(2): 137-151, A p r i l 1977.

E. Mueller (with R. Conn). The R e l a t i o n of Income to F e r t i l i t y De­

c i s i o n s i n Taiwan, Economic Development and C u l t u r a l

Change 25(2): 325-347, January 1977.

The Economic Value of C h i l d r e n i n Peasant A g r i c u l t u r e ,

i n Population and Development: The Search f o r S e l e c t i v e

I n t e r v e n t i o n s , Ronald Ridker (Ed.), Baltimore: Johns

Hopkins U n i v e r s i t y Press, pp. 98-153, 1976.

-39-

IS. Mueller (with. D. Freedman). Standard Package of Economic and Demographic Q u e s t i o n s , a manual f o r c o l l e c t i n g m i c r o e c o -

noraic data i n household surveys, forthcoming p u b l i c a t i o n of The World Bank.

The Impact of Demographic Factors on Economic Develop­

ment i n Taiwan, Population and Development Review 3 ( 1 ) :

307-344, March-June 1977.

R. P o t t e r (with C. J . Mode, R. C. Avery, G. S. Littman). Methodo­

l o g i c a l Issues Underlying M u l t i p l e Decrement.Life Table

A n a l y s i s , Demography 14: 87-96, February 1977.

(with P. M. K u l k a m i ) . E x t r a p o l a t i o n of IUD Continua­

t i o n Curves, P o p u l a t i o n Studies 30: 353-368, J u l y 1976.

(with J . A. F o r t n e y ) . B i r t h s Averted by Menstrual Regu­

l a t i o n : An A p p l i c a t i o n of Renewal Theory, forthcoming

In P o p u l a t i o n .

T. Richards F e r t i l i t y D e c l i n e i n Germany: An Econometric A p p r a i s a l ,

forthcoming i n Population Studies, November 1977.

P. S i e g e l (with Robert E. C o l e ) . Patterns of Job M o b i l i t y : A

Comparative'Study of D e t r o i t and Yokohama, i n Jobs and

Careers i n Japan: A Comparative P e r s p e c t i v e ( t e n t a t i v e

t i t l e ) , forthcoming p u b l i c a t i o n of the U n i v e r s i t y of

C a l i f o r n i a Press.

L. Stone I n t e r - C i t y Flows: The Patterns o f I n t e r a c t i o n , i n Cana­

dian .Urban Trends, D. Michael Ray (Ed.), Toronto: Copp-

C l a r k P u b l i s h i n g Co., pp. 309-318, 1976.

(with Claude Marceau). Canadian Population Trends and

P u b l i c P o l i c y i n the 1980s. Montreal: McGill-Queen's

Press, 1977.

The Geographic M o b i l i t y of Canadians. Ottawa: Depart­

ment of Supply and S e r v i c e s , forthcoming, 1977.

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A P P K N D L X A

CENTER FINANCIAL ASSISTANCE PROVIDED JOR GRADUATE STUDENTS, 1976-1977

Stage of A p p r e n t i c e -shlp and Academic Term

T o t a l , 1976-1977

Summer h a l f - t e r m

U n i v e r s i t y year

Spring h a l f - t e r m

F i r s t Year Students C

Continuing Students

T o t a l , 1976-1977

Summer h a l f - t e r m

U n i v e r s i t y year

Spring h a l f - t e r m

F i r s t Year Students C

Continuing Students

T o t a l , 1976-1977 Summer h a l f - t e r m U n i v e r s i t y year Spring h a l f - t e r m

F i r s t Year Students C

Continuing Students

Number of Students Receiving Center Funding

Any Form' T u i t i o n Stipend Other

30

4

24

12

6

24

25

4

19

8

5

20

A l l Students

22

4

21

10

29

4

28

10

6

23

6

16

Foreign Students

5 4

0 0

5 4

4 4

1 1

4 3

United States Students

17

4

16

6

5

12

25

4

24

6

5

20

dumber of students r e c e i v i n g f i n a n c i a l a s s i s t a n c e from the P o p u l a t i o n

Studies Center i n p e r i o d i n d i c a t e d ; numbers by p e r i o d or type of as­

s i s t a n c e are not a d d i t i v e because of o v e r l a p . Four Center students

were wholly supported by funds o u t s i d e the Center.

^ D i r e c t expenditures f o r i n d i v i d u a l students, i n c l u d i n g t r a v e l funds

f o r four students to p r o f e s s i o n a l meetings. Excludes c o n s u l t a t i o n ,

p r o v i s i o n of space, and use of general f a c i l i t i e s .

Students who were not a s s o c i a t e d with the Center before summer, 1976.

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APPENDIX l i

POPULATION STUDIES CENTER STAFF

1976 - 1977

D i r e c t o r

A l b e r t I . H e r m a l i n , A s s o c i a t e P r o f e s s o r o f S o c i o l o g y

A s s o c i a t e D i r e c t o r s

Reynolds Farley," P r o f e s s o r o f S o c i o l o g y

Ronald Freedman, P r o f e s s o r of S o c i o l o g y David Goldberg, P r o f e s s o r o f S o c i o l o g y P a u l M. S i e g e l , A s s o c i a t e P r o f e s s o r of S o c i o l o g y

Research A s s o c i a t e s

A l b e r t Anderson, A s s i s t a n t Research S c i e n t i s t J . M i c h a e l Coble, A s s i s t a n t Research S c i e n t i s t Lolagene C. Coombs, A s s i s t a n t Research S c i e n t i s t Deborah Freedman, A s s i s t a n t P r o f e s s o r o f Economics L e s l i e K i s h , P r o f e s s o r o f S o c i o l o g y , and Program D i r e c t o r ,

Survey Research Center John Knodel, A s s o c i a t e P r o f e s s o r o f S o c i o l o g y Ronald D. Lee, P r o f e s s o r o f Economics Karen 0. Mason, A s s i s t a n t P r o f e s s o r of S o c i o l o g y W i l l i a m M. Mason, A s s o c i a t e P r o f e s s o r o f S o c i o l o g y Eva L. M u e l l e r , P r o f e s s o r of Economics, and A s s o c i a t e Dean

f o r Academic Appointments, LSA Robert G. P o t t e r , V i s i t i n g Research A s s o c i a t e

( P r o f e s s o r , Brown U n i v e r s i t y ) Leroy 0. Stone, A d j u n c t A s s o c i a t e P r o f e s s o r of S o c i o l o g y

( S t a t i s t i c s Canada)

S u p p o r t i n g S t a f f

Helen L. Dempster, A d m i n i s t r a t i v e A s s o c i a t e , J u l y 1976-May 1977 Susan E t t e r , A d m i n i s t r a t i v e A s s o c i a t e , June 1977-Mary P. S c o t t , A d m i n i s t r a t i v e A s s i s t a n t Fran C a r t f o r d , Programmer K a r l i n R i c h a r d s o n , Programmer James Rogers, Research A s s i s t a n t L o i s Groesbeck, S e c r e t a r y - L i b r a r i a n C a r o l Crawford, S e c r e t a r y Margie Melendez, S e c r e t a r y Judy S a y l e s , S e c r e t a r y Dorothy S t r a n d , S e c r e t a r y Pamela Crawford, R e c e p t i o n i s t - C l e r k C h a r l o t t e Smart, R e c e p t i o n i s t - C l e r k

-43-

APPENDIX C

COURSES IN DEMOGRAPHY

The Departmental f a c u l t y members and r e s e a r c h a s s o c i a t e s of the Popula­t i o n S t u d i e s Center a r e r e s p o n s i b l e f o r student ^ s u p e r v i s i o n i n the ap­p r e n t i c e s h i p program a t the P o p u l a t i o n S t u d i e s Center. The c l o s e one-to-one r e s e a r c h t r a i n i n g i n v o l v e d i n p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n on-going r e s e a r c h p r o j e c t s supplements the more f o r m a l t r a i n i n g g i v e n i n r e g u l a r course work.

Formal graduate courses g i v e n by the P o p u l a t i o n S t u d i e s Center s t a f f members i n c l u d e :

S o c i o l o g y 530 - P o p u l a t i o n Problems. An i n t e n s i v e a n a l y s i s of the ba­s i c demographic processes and t h e i r causes. How v a r i a t i o n s i n m o r t a l ­i t y , f e r t i l i t y , n u p t i a l i t y and m i g r a t i o n a r i s e and how they a f f e c t so­c i e t y . I l l u s t r a t i o n s a r e drawn from the United S t a t e s and a v a r i e t y o f developed and underdeveloped c o u n t r i e s .

S o c i o l o g y 531 - R e g i o n a l P o p u l a t i o n Problems. T h i s course focuses on the p o p u l a t i o n a s p e c t s of s o c i a l p r o b l e m s — f o o d , energy, p o l l u t i o n , e t c . — t h e r o l e of p o p u l a t i o n v a r i a b l e s i n the problems of s o c i a l d e v e l ­opment, and s o c i a l p o l i c i e s t h a t a r e concerned w i t h the p o p u l a t i o n a s ­p e c t s o f these problems. I t c o n s i d e r s these i s s u e s i n the c o n t e x t o f s p e c i f i c c o u n t r i e s r e p r e s e n t i n g a range of demographic s i t u a t i o n s .

S o c i o l o g y 535 - The Urban Community. A d e s c r i p t i v e study of the form and development of the urban community w i t h r e s p e c t t o demographic s t r u c t u r e , s p a t i a l and temporal p a t t e r n s , and f u n c t i o n a l o r g a n i z a t i o n , w i t h a t t e n t i o n to the sources o f data and techniques of a n a l y s i s ap­p r o p r i a t e to the study of p o p u l a t i o n d i s t r i b u t i o n .

S o c i o l o g y 536 - Human Ecology. Deals w i t h the forms and modes of change of s o c i a l s t r u c t u r e as a f f e c t e d by i n t e r a c t i o n s w i t h the e n v i r ­onment and p o p u l a t i o n .

S o c i o l o g y 630 - Research Methods i n P o p u l a t i o n and Human Ecology. An examination o f the n a t u r e and s t r u c t u r e o f a l a r g e number of demograph­i c techniques u s e f u l f o r s t u d y i n g p o p u l a t i o n c o m p o s i t i o n or a n a l y z i n g p o p u l a t i o n dynamics. I n v o l v e s both review of l i t e r a t u r e and computa­t i o n s u s i n g the t e c h n i q u e s .

S o c i o l o g y 631, 632 - Advanced P o p u l a t i o n Methods. These courses focus on the f o r m a l development of models to study the growth, d i s t r i b u t i o n , change, and movement o f human p o p u l a t i o n w i t h emphasis on mathematical models which l e a d to e m p i r i c a l l y v e r i f i a b l e t h e o r y . T o p i c s i n c l u d e mod­e l s f o r s t u d y i n g s t a b l e p o p u l a t i o n s , the r e p r o d u c t i o n p r o c e s s e s , and the t r a n s l a t i o n o f p e r i o d to c o h o r t r a t e s . A t t e n t i o n i s a l s o g i v e n to d a t a sources and s t a t i s t i c a l techniques used i n s t u d y i n g the i n t e r r e l a ­t i o n s h i p s of p o p u l a t i o n d i s t r i b u t i o n , d i v i s i o n of l a b o r , and community s t r u c t u r e .

-45-

S o c i o l o g y 633 - Proseminar i n H i s t o r i c a l Demography. A survey of the data sources and the methods of data o r g a n i z a t i o n and a n a l y s i s p e c u l i a r to h i s t o r i c a l demographic r e s e a r c h a l o n g w i t h s e l e c t e d s u b s t a n t i v e t o p ­i c s .

S o c i o l o g y 830, 831 - Seminar i n P o p u l a t i o n and Human Ecology. A v a r i ­e t y of s u b s t a n t i v e and m e t h o d o l o g i c a l t o p i c s are taken up i n a seminar format.

Economics 466 - Economics of P o p u l a t i o n . A n a l y s i s o f the causes and e f ­f e c t s o f p o p u l a t i o n changes from the s t a n d p o i n t o f economic t h e o r y . (For u p p e r - c l a s s undergraduates and as an i n t r o d u c t i o n f o r graduates.)

Economics 667 - The Economics o f P o p u l a t i o n Growth. Examines the econo­mic determinants of demographic b e h a v i o r , w i t h a f o c u s on the economics o f f e r t i l i t y , as w e l l as the consequences of demographic change i n both developed and l e s s developed c o u n t r i e s and the economic a s p e c t s of popu­l a t i o n p o l i c y and f a m i l y p l a n n i n g programs.

Economics 867, 868 - Seminar i n the Economics .of P o p u l a t i o n . A seminar c o v e r i n g a v a r i e t y o f t o p i c s i n the form o f (1) a d e t a i l e d d i s c u s s i o n o f an important r e c e n t a r t i c l e or s e r i e s of a r t i c l e s ; (2) p r e s e n t a t i o n o f r e s e a r c h p l a n s o r f i n d i n g s by t r a i n e e s or f a c u l t y members; (3) p r e ­s e n t a t i o n o f r e s e a r c h by a v i s i t o r .

-46-

t

APPENDIX D

FORMER POPULATION STUDIES CENTER TRAINEES WHO RECEIVED A PH.D. IN SOCIOLOGY OR ECONOMICS

( C h r o n o l o g i c a l l y l i s t e d - 1962 to 1977)

K r i s h n a n Namboodiri P r o f e s s o r and Chairman ( S o c i o l o g y ) E d i t o r , Demography U n i v e r s i t y of North C a r o l i n a

Tattamangalam R. B a l a k r i s h n a n P r o f e s s o r ( S o c i o l o g y ) U n i v e r s i t y of Westfern O n t a r i o

A l l a n G. F e l d t P r o f e s s o r (Urban and R e g i o n a l

P l a n n i n g , N a t u r a l Resources) U n i v e r s i t y of M i c h i g a n

W i l l i a m Smit P r o f e s s o r ( S o c i o l o g y ) C a l v i n C o l l e g e

W i l l i a m F. P r a t t C h i e f , Family Growth Survey Branch N a t i o n a l Center f o r H e a l t h S t a t i s t i c s

P a r t h a S. Mohapatra Deceased 1976

K o d a g a n a l l u r S r i k a n t a n S t a f f A s s o c i a t e The P o p u l a t i o n C o u n c i l '

Roy C. Treadway A s s o c i a t e P r o f e s s o r ( S o c i o l o g y ) Department of S o c i o l o g y , Anthropology

and S o c i a l Work I l l i n o i s S t a t e U n i v e r s i t y

Fred Campbell A s s o c i a t e P r o f e s s o r ( S o c i o l o g y ) U n i v e r s i t y o f Washington

L a r r y L. Bumpass P r o f e s s o r ( S o c i o l o g y ) and A s s o c i a t e

D i r e c t o r f o r T r a i n i n g (Center f o r • Demography and Ecology)

U n i v e r s i t y o f W i s c o n s i n

P a t r i c i a R. Ferman A s s o c i a t e P r o f e s s o r ( S o c i o l o g y ) E a s t e r n M i c h i g a n U n i v e r s i t y

Robert M. Hauser P r o f e s s o r ( S o c i o l o g y ) and D i r e c t o r

( T r a i n i n g Program i n S o c i a l Methods) U n i v e r s i t y o f W i s c o n s i n

Anrudh K. J a i n A s s o c i a t e ( I n t e r n a t i o n a l Programs) The P o p u l a t i o n C o u n c i l

A l b e r t M. Marckwardt Demographer World F e r t i l i t y Survey ( I n t e r n a t i o n a l S t a t i s t i c a l I n s t i t u t e ) London

W i l l i a m S. P o o l e r A s s o c i a t e P r o f e s s o r ( S o c i o l o g y ) Syracuse U n i v e r s i t y

A l l a n Schnaiberg A s s o c i a t e P r o f e s s o r ( S o c i o l o g y ) Northwestern U n i v e r s i t y

Te-Hsiung Sun E x e c u t i v e D i r e c t o r Taiwan P r o v i n c i a l I n s t i t u t e of

Family P l a n n i n g

James A. Sweet A s s o c i a t e P r o f e s s o r ( S o c i o l o g y ) and

D i r e c t o r (Center f o r Demography and Ecology)

U n i v e r s i t y of W i s c o n s i n

Solomon S. P. Chu A s s i s t a n t P r o f e s s o r ( S o c i o l o g y ) S t a t e U n i v e r s i t y o f New York a t B u f f a l o

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David L. Featherman P r o f e s s o r and Chairman ( R u r a l S o c i o l o g y )

and Research A s s o c i a t e (Center f o r Demography and Ecology)

U n i v e r s i t y o f W i s c o n s i n

C h a r l e s R. Kindermahn A c t i n g D i r e c t o r ( S t a t i s t i c s D i v i s i o n ) U.S. Department o f J u s t i c e Law Enforcement A s s i s t a n c e Agency

A l d e n Speare A s s o c i a t e P r o f e s s o r ( S o c i o l o g y ) Brown U n i v e r s i t y

Jay I . S t a r k L i n c o r p Research, I n c . Ann A r b o r , M i c h i g a n

A r j u n L. Adlakha A s s i s t a n t P r o f e s s o r ( B i o s t a t i s t i c s )

and Research A s s o c i a t e (POP LAB) U n i v e r s i t y o f N o r t h C a r o l i n a

Greer L. Fox A s s o c i a t e P r o f e s s o r ( S o c i o l o g y ) U n i v e r s i t y o f Vermont

J u d i t h L. Friedman A s s o c i a t e P r o f e s s o r (Human Ecology) Cook C o l l e g e , Rutgers U n i v e r s i t y

Samuel R. Friedman A s s i s t a n t P r o f e s s o r ( S o c i o l o g y ) M o n t c l a i r S t a t e C o l l e g e

Robert Lapham S t a f f D i r e c t o r , Committee on

P o p u l a t i o n and Demography N a t i o n a l Research C o u n c i l . N a t i o n a l Academy o f Science Washington, D.C.

Baron L. Moots A s s i s t a n t Research S c i e n t i s t ( P o p u l a t i o n S t u d i e s Center) U n i v e r s i t y o f M i c h i g a n

Bruce L. Warren A s s o c i a t e P r o f e s s o r ( S o c i o l o g y ) E a s t e r n M i c h i g a n ..University

Gordon S. Bonham Survey S ta t i s t i c i a n

Family Growth Survey Branch N a t i o n a l Center f o r H e a l t h S t a t i s t i c s

Eugene P. E r i c k s e n Head of Sampling D i v i s i o n I n s t i t u t e f o r Survey Research Temple U n i v e r s i t y

Shea 0. R u t s t e i n Overseas S t a f f A s s o c i a t e Demographic D i v i s i o n The P o p u l a t i o n C o u n c i l Lima, Peru

Fred A r n o l d East-West P o p u l a t i o n I n s t i t u t e East-West Center H o n o l u l u

George K. J a r v i s A s s o c i a t e P r o f e s s o r ( S o c i o l o g y ) U n i v e r s i t y of A l b e r t a

A l l a n G r i s w o l d Johnson A s s i s t a n t P r o f e s s o r ( S o c i o l o g y ) Wesleyan U n i v e r s i t y

R i c h a r d B. Anker Economist I n t e r n a t i o n a l Labor O r g a n i z a t i o n Geneva, S w i t z e r l a n d

P a u l M. H i r s c h A s s i s t a n t P r o f e s s o r ( S o c i o l o g y ) U n i v e r s i t y o f Chicago

Howard M. lams S t a t i s t i c i a n ( S o c i a l Science) O f f i c e of S p e c i a l I n i t i a t i v e s U.S. Department of H e a l t h ,

E d u c a t i o n and W e l f a r e

P a u l K. C. L i u Economist I n s t i t u t e o f Economics Academia S i n i c a T a i p e i , Taiwan

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Maurice M. MacDonald Research Economist *' I n s t i t u t e f o r Research on P o v e r t y U n i v e r s i t y of W i s c o n s i n

L o i s B. Shaw S t a f f Economist Gary Income Maintenance Experiment Gary, I n d i a n a

Ross S t o l z e n b e r g A s s i s t a n t P r o f e s s o r ( S o c i o l o g y ) U n i v e r s i t y of I l l i n o i s - U r b a n a

Boone A. T u r c h i

A s s i s t a n t P r o f e s s o r (Economics) U n i v e r s i t y o f N o r t h C a r o l i n a

John E l l i s Anderson Research A s s o c i a t e . Center f o r Disease C o n t r o l A t l a n t a , G e o r g i a

Hsiao-Chang Chen I n t e r n a t i o n a l I n s t i t u t e of

R u r a l R e c o n s t r u c t i o n P h i l i p p i n e s

Hsan Z a f e r Dogan Research A s s o c i a t e (The P o p u l a t i o n

C o u n c i l , Yozgat P r o j e c t ) Ankara, Turkey

B a r r y James Edmonston A s s i s t a n t P r o f e s s o r ( S o c i o l o g y ) C o r n e l l U n i v e r s i t y

Mark Evers A s s i s t a n t P r o f e s s o r ( S o c i o l o g y ) Duke U n i v e r s i t y

E l i z a b e t h M. F i s c h e r A s s i s t a n t P r o f e s s o r ( S o c i o l o g y )

and A s s o c i a t e D i r e c t o r ( S o c i a l S c i e n c e Data L i b r a r y )

I n s t i t u t e f o r Research i n S o c i a l Science

U n i v e r s i t y of North C a r o l i n a

John Leroy Goodman Research A s s o c i a t e The Urban I n s t i t u t e Washington, D.C.

L o i s Verbrugge A s s i s t a n t P r o f e s s o r ( B i o s t a t i s t i c s ) U n i v e r s i t y o f M i c h i g a n

James Cramer A s s i s t a n t P r o f e s s o r ( S o c i o l o g y ) U n i v e r s i t y o f C a l i f o r n i a - D a v i s

A r l a n d Thornton A s s i s t a n t Research S c i e n t i s t Survey Research Center U n i v e r s i t y of M i c h i g a n

Andrew Mason Research A s s o c i a t e , P o p u l a t i o n I n s t i t u t e East-West C e n t e r , H o n o l u l u , and

A s s i s t a n t P r o f e s s o r (Economics) U n i v e r s i t y o f H a w a i i

P a u l Ronald Voss P r o j e c t A s s o c i a t e ( A p p l i e d P o p u l a t i o n

L a b o r a t o r y ) Department of R u r a l S o c i o l o g y U n i v e r s i t y of W i s c o n s i n

Joseph Chamie P o p u l a t i o n D i v i s i o n UN Economic Commission f o r West A s i a B e i r u t , Lebanon

L i n d a Waite S t o l z e n b e r g A s s i s t a n t P r o f e s s o r ( S o c i o l o g y ) U n i v e r s i t y of I l l i n o i s - U r b a n a

S t a n l e y Smith A s s i s t a n t P r o f e s s o r (Economics) U n i v e r s i t y of F l o r i d a

Martha H i l l I n s t i t u t e f o r S o c i a l Research U n i v e r s i t y o f M i c h i g a n

Rex Y. Leghorn A s s i s t a n t P r o f e s s o r ( S o c i o l o g y ) Emory U n i v e r s i t y

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