19 March Daily technical trader
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Transcript of 19 March Daily technical trader
COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 1 of 6
Daily Technical Trader – Qatar
Thursday, 19 March 2015
Stocks Covered Today
Ticker Price Target
NLCS 20.35 18.80
MERS 209.00 205.00
QSE Index
Level % Ch. Vol. (mn)
Last 11,426.62 -2.2 5.8
Resistance/Support
Levels 1st
2nd
3rd
Resistance 11,600 11,700 11,800
Support 11,350 11,200 11,000
QSE Index Commentary
Overview: The QSE Index broke another important support level of 11,600 points. We expect weakness to continue towards the 11,350 – 11,300 levels. It is imperative for the Index to maintain its position around or above the mentioned levels; a break below these levels could have negative ramifications on the Index over the medium-to-long term. Expected Resistance Level: 11,600 Expected Support Level: 11,350
QSE Index (Daily)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
QE Summary
Market Indicators 18 Mar 15 17 Mar 15 %Ch.
Value Traded (QR mn) 390.5 322.0 21.3
Ex. Mkt. Cap. (QR bn) 620.8 635.7 -2.3
Volume (mn) 8.5 7.3 16.0
Number of Trans. 5,314 4,785 11.1
Companies Traded 38 39 -2.6
Market Breadth 1:35 10:27 –
QE Indices
Market Indices Close 1D% RSI
Total Return 17,557.30 -2.2 26.5
All Share Index 3,041.71 -2.2 26.2
Banks 3,090.67 -2.0 28.9
Industrials 3,737.78 -2.4 24.9
Transportation 2,440.46 -0.4 46.8
Real Estate 2,293.02 -2.9 33.2
Insurance 3,988.83 -2.1 43.1
Telecoms 1,291.41 -2.7 24.5
Consumer 6,787.37 -2.9 20.8
Al Rayan Islamic 4,163.94 -2.2 32.2
RSI 14 (Over Bought)
Ticker Close 1D% RSI
RSI 14 (Over Sold)
Ticker Close 1D% RSI
QFLS 179.20 -3.9 14.5
UDCD 21.45 -2.7 19.0
IQCD 134.50 -2.3 19.7
DHBK 49.95 -1.1 21.0
DBIS 37.00 -0.1 22.0
QSE Index (30min)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
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NLCS
Price % Ch. Volume
Last 20.35 -3.10 275,330
Resistance/Support
Levels (QR) 1st
2nd
3rd
Resistance 21.00 22.00 23.00
Support 20.25 18.80 17.50
Commentary
Overview: NLCS broke below the Ascending Triangle price formation. This indicates the failure to start a bullish leg and possibly creating medium-term bearish leg. Technical indicators on the daily chart are implying negative momentum. On the other hand, the intraday chart show price has reached the oversold area. Thus, we conclude the possibility of price bounce upwards but it could be short lived and the selloff could regain momentum once QR20.20 is broken downwards. Expected Target Retreat: QR18.80 – QR17.50 A sustained break below QR20.20 is required to trigger the sell recommendation.
(Daily)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
(Hourly)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
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MERS
Price % Ch. Volume
Last 209.00 -0.95 25,330
Resistance/Support
Levels (QR) 1st
2nd
3rd
Resistance 214.00 220.00 224.00
Support 209.00 205.00 200.00
Commentary
Overview: MERS could be in a correction phase as seen from the intraday chart. Technically, the name created a Failure Swing (the price formed lower peaks and lower troughs). Indicators are pointing down on the daily chart, adding more weight to the bearish scenario. As a result, this correction could continue further over the short-term. Expected Target Retreat: QR205.00 – QR200.00 A sustained break below QR209.00 is needed to trigger the sell idea.
(Daily)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
(Hourly)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
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Intraday Fibonacci Support and Resistance Levels Daily Moving Averages Support Levels Resistance Levels
Ticker Close 3rd
2nd
1st
Pivot 1st
2nd
3rd
50 SMA 100 SMA 200 SMA
QSE Index 11,426.62 11,219.05 11,333.47 11,404.16 11,518.59 11,633.01 11,703.70 11,818.13 12,168.74 12,559.97 12,915.23
Total Return 17,557.30 17,238.36 17,414.18 17,522.79 17,698.61 17,874.43 17,983.04 18,158.86 18,329.58 18,823.09 19,307.63
All Share 3,041.71 2,989.05 3,018.62 3,036.90 3,066.47 3,096.04 3,114.32 3,143.89 3,160.28 3,225.94 3,290.59
Al Rayan Islamic 4,163.94 4,100.37 4,135.25 4,156.80 4,191.69 4,226.57 4,248.12 4,283.01 4,243.87 4,294.49 4,388.67
Banks & Financials Services
MARK 44.60 44.10 44.39 44.56 44.85 45.14 45.31 45.60 46.35 47.06 50.87
CBQK 67.70 66.83 67.33 67.64 68.13 68.63 68.94 69.43 68.41 69.69 69.26
DHBK 49.95 48.38 49.11 49.56 50.28 51.01 51.46 52.18 56.44 57.02 58.25
QIBK 96.00 94.27 95.26 95.87 96.87 97.86 98.47 99.47 104.47 104.71 105.92
QIIK 75.50 72.77 73.95 74.68 75.87 77.05 77.78 78.97 83.20 83.23 84.57
Insurance
QATI 75.40 73.13 73.90 74.37 75.13 75.90 76.37 77.13 76.98 78.18 78.39
Consumer Goods & Services
MCGS 141.60 138.53 140.25 141.31 143.03 144.75 145.81 147.53 136.85 129.52 119.61
Industrials
IQCD 134.50 132.83 133.79 134.38 135.33 136.29 136.88 137.83 150.33 167.42 175.34
QEWS 177.00 171.00 174.44 176.56 180.00 183.44 185.56 189.00 191.58 189.39 188.17
GISS 83.50 79.17 81.08 82.26 84.17 86.08 87.26 89.17 98.26 102.66 106.65
QIGD 38.80 38.33 38.60 38.77 39.03 39.30 39.47 39.73 40.87 42.59 50.26
Real Estate
BRES 45.50 43.37 44.51 45.22 46.37 47.51 48.22 49.37 46.48 45.85 43.32
UDCD 21.45 21.02 21.27 21.42 21.66 21.91 22.06 22.30 24.03 24.64 26.07
ERES 15.10 14.78 14.93 15.02 15.17 15.32 15.41 15.56 15.56 16.45 18.66
MRDS 17.65 17.09 17.39 17.58 17.88 18.18 18.37 18.67 19.67 20.54 20.87
Telecommunication
ORDS 102.60 98.20 100.11 101.29 103.20 105.11 106.29 108.20 114.15 116.58 124.99
VFQS 16.64 16.38 16.52 16.60 16.74 16.88 16.96 17.10 16.61 17.22 18.73
Transportation
QGTS 22.90 22.50 22.69 22.81 23.00 23.19 23.31 23.50 23.95 23.68 23.72
QNNS 106.00 105.33 105.72 105.95 106.33 106.72 106.95 107.33 102.37 100.22 97.20 Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research; Note: Numbers in Italics denote moving averages that are above the given index level/stock price
COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 5 of 6
Definitions:
Candlestick: A chart that displays the high, low, opening and closing prices for a security in a single period. The body of the candle is made up by the opening
and the closing prices, i.e., the taller the body the greater the range between these two prices and vice versa. A colored candle denotes a closing price that is
lower than the opening price, while a white candle shows the opposite. The candlestick's shadows or wicks show the period's high and low prices and how they
compare to the opening and closing price. In general, the shape of the candle will vary upon the positions of the period's high, low, opening and closing prices.
Support: A level that could cause more buyers to step in in order to prevent the security from falling or causing the security price to head higher.
Resistance: An inverse of a support level. A resistance area or level could cause more sellers to step in in order to prevent the security from rising or causing the
security price to head lower.
SMA (Simple Moving Average): Is an arithmetic average, which calculates the average price of a security over a defined number of periods and is thus
considered a lagging indicator. SMAs used in our analysis refer to closing prices. In general, SMAs serve many purposes, such as a smoothing tool, an indicative
price direction and potential support/resistance levels.
Market Breadth: Breadth indicates the number of securities that have closed higher vs. the number of decliners in a particular exchange.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Is a trading indicator, which shows changes in the strength, direction, momentum and duration of a trend in
a stock's price through a collection of three time series calculated from historical closing price data.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): Is a momentum indicator that compares a security’s price gains to its losses for a predetermined number of periods (we generally
use 14 periods). The RSI attempts to point out how a security, in relative terms, is in the overbought/oversold zone. Securities with a RSI above 70 could be
considered as overbought, and below 30 could be considered as oversold.
Pattern/Formation: Is a graphical presentation of a security’s price activity over a certain period of time. Formations come in different shapes (such as, head &
shoulders, triangles, flags, and so on). They can be used to identify potential trends, reversal of trends, price targets, entry and exit points, etc.
Fibonacci Retracements: Are horizontal lines that indicate expected areas of support/resistance for a security based on a predetermined price movement. These
levels are usually indicated by Fibonacci ratios of 23.6%, 38.2%, 50.0%, 61.8% and 100% from that particular movement.
Fibonacci Pivot and Intra-day Support/Resistance: A Pivot Point is generally used to formulate expected future support/resistance levels. From the base Pivot
Point, Fibonacci multiples of the high-low differential are added to form resistance levels and subtracted to form support levels.
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Contacts
Saugata Sarkar Abdullah Amin, CFA
Head of Research Senior Research Analyst
Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6569 [email protected] [email protected]
Sahbi Kasraoui Ahmed Al-Khoudary QNB Financial Services SPC
Manager – HNWI Head of Sales Trading – Institutional Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666
Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 Tel: (+974) 4476 6548 PO Box 24025 [email protected] [email protected] Doha, Qatar
Disclaimer and Copyright Notice: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of QNB SAQ (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange QNB SAQ is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. QNBFS accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or indirect losses arising from use of this report. Any investment decision should depend on the individual circumstances of the investor and be based on specifically engaged investment advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. QNBFS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. For reports dealing with Technical Analysis, expressed opinions and/or recommendations may be different or contrary to the opinions/recommendations of QNBFS Fundamental Research as a result of depending solely on the historical technical data (price and volume). QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. This report may not be reproduced in whole or in part without permission from QNBFS.