1868 Hayward Earthquake the great San Francisco earthquake Shaking intensities were strong from San Leandro south through Hayward towards Alvarado They were weaker in Oakland and Mission San Jose 1989 was NOT the big one for the East Bay! Ominous comparisons to the 1995 Kobe Japan quake $30 Billion in retrofits and upgrades on the way U.S. Dept. of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics Report 85,000 employers, 1.5 million employees, $100 billion annual wages exposed to strong shaking (MMI VII+) by a M6.9 Hayward Earthquake Hayward Fault Earthquake Loss Estimates $500 billion in property and 5 million residents in 5 counties will be impacted $120 billion economic loss due to shaking alone, damage to infrastructure and fires after the quake could significantly increase the total loss Only about 10% of loss will be insured BART & Bay Bridge connections between Oakland & San Francisco will be broken Insurance Industry Trade Journal: March 20, 2008 Hayward Fault Earthquake Loss Estimates Exposures of employers, employees, and wages is 5 to 8 times larger than those at risk from Hurricane Katrina Unlike Hurricane Katrina, where 33 to 50% of the loss was insured, only about 10% of the earthquake loss will be insured Oakland and San Francisco airports and ports are built on damage prone soils 1,100 road closures, 900 in Alameda County alone Insurance Industry Trade Journal: March 20, 2008 Hayward Fault Earthquake Loss Estimates 70,000 homeless needing public shelter mainly in Alameda County with 62% ethnic and minority populations In Alameda County, 27% of the population use English as their second language, and 11% of the population has incomes below the poverty level. Insurance Industry Trade Journal: March 20, 2008 1868alliance.org ~M7 Oct. 21, 1868 Hayward earthquake 30 fatalities, 5 in San Francisco (7th most lethal California earthquakes) $350,000 (in 1868 dollars) in damage in San Francisco alone Extensive damage in San Leandro, Hayward, and Fremont (total population less than 2000) Bay Area population was 260,000 (at 7 million, it is now 27 times larger) 2 nd Alameda Co. Courthouse, San Leandro Society of California Pioneers Courthouse At San Leandro the shock was more sensibly felt than at any other point on that side of the Bay. All the buildings were terribly shaken, adobes were thrown to the ground, brick structures, and even frame buildings were demolished. The Court House and County Jail were shaken down. San Francisco Morning Call, 22 Oct. 1868 Haywards Hotel, Haywards, 1860s Society of California Pioneers Hotel Hayward was heavily damaged by the 1868 earthquake. Practically not a house was left on its foundations Many buildings were much damaged. (Lawson Report, 1908). Mission San Jose Library of Congress Bancroft Library Before After The old Mission church, which was of adobe, was shaken down, as were several other buildings at the same place. Lawson Report, 1908 Fremont Bancroft Library Reinstein Clothing Factory, 314 California St. San Franciscos Financial District Settlement 27% 21% 10% 11% 4% 3% In the next 30 years there is a 62%, nearly 2 in 3 chance, of a magnitude 6.7 or greater earthquake in the greater Bay Area. Hazard is highest in the East Bay due to the larger number of faults there and the Hayward Fault. SEVEN DEADLY FAULTS Bay Area Schools Earthquake Drill Tues. Oct. 21, alliance.org/prepare/drill Its free!! Join Us!