180113 Capitamall Trust - Cimb

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REIT SINGAPOREJanuary 18, 2013

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS, ARE PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS REPORT.

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Compressed yieldsWe believe that CMTs forward yields of 4.6% are un-compelling andhave priced in growth potential. Further DPU growth could come frommore AEIs and acquisitions, though these could come at the price ofhigh asset values and income vacuum during the development phase.

4Q/FY12 DPUs (24%/97%) wereslightly below our estimates and

consensus on higher interest costsand retained earnings. We tweak ourDPUs to reflect 4Q results but keepour DDM-based target price.Maintain Underperform. We seede-rating catalysts arising fromweaker-than-expected rentalreversions.

Unexciting 4Q4Q12 DPU was up 3% yoy, as a 14%NPI increase from completed AEIswas offset by an enlarged unit-base

after its recent unit placement in Nov.Results were decent but unexciting occupancy was lower qoq at 98.2%(3Q: 98.4%) due to the impact fromAEI works at IMM andreconfiguration of Plaza Singapuraafter the departure of Carrefour.Full-year rental reversions of +6.0%were a tad weaker than FY11s +6.4%,partly due to negative rentalreversions at Sembawang ShoppingCentre and lower rents arising fromthe reconfiguration of IMM.

Operating metrics remain fairlymuted with tenant sales up 1.6% yoy

but shopper traffic down 1.4% yoy.

Asset revaluation gainsPortfolio value rose by S$134.6m(+1.7% hoh) to S$8.2bn, mainly fromthe completion of asset enhancementworks at JCube, Atrium and Iluma.Raffles City office also saw amarginal cap rate compression of25bp, likely due to improved rentalprojections. With these and therecent placement, asset leveragedipped to a lower 36.7% from 38.4%

as at end-3Q.

Maintain UnderperformTrading at valuations of 1.3x P/BVand FY13 yields of 4.6%, we see thepositives being largely priced in.Management remains on the lookoutfor growth opportunities throughAEIs and acquisitions (includinggreenfield developments, though thiscould come at the price of high assetvalues and income vacuum duringthe development phase.

CIMB Analyst

Tan Siew Ling

T (65) 62108698E [email protected]

Donald Chua

T (65) 62108606E [email protected]

Ca itaMall Trust 4QFY12 RESULTS NOTECT SP / CMLT.SI

Current S$2.16 SHORT TERM (3 MTH) LONG TERM

Market Cap Avg Daily Turnover Free Float Target S$2.23

US$6,102m US$13.74m 70.0% Previous Target S$2.23S$7,466m S$16.78m 3,328 m shares Up/downside 3.2%

Conviction| |

Share price info

Share price perf. (%) 1M 3M 12M

Relative 2.6 -2 9.5

Absolute 3.8 2.4 23.8

Major shareholders % held

CapitaLand 30.0

Capital Research 7.7

Capital Group 7.0

esu ts ompar son

FYE Dec (S$ m)4Q

FY12

4Q

FY11yoy % chg

3Q

FY12qoq % chg

4QFY12

cum

4QFY11

cumyoy % chg

Prev.

FY12FComments

Revenue 173.7 157.9 10.0 167.2 3.9 661.6 630.6 4.9 667.5 In line. 4Q:26%; FY: 99%

Operating costs (72.9) (70.0) 4.1 (66.5) 9.6 (262.8) (254.0) 3.5 (264.4)

EBITDA 100.8 87.9 14.7 100.7 0.1 398.8 376.6 5.9 403.1 In line. 4Q: 25%; FY: 99%

EBITDA margin (%) 58.0 55.7 60.2 60.3 59.7 0.9 60.4

Depn & amort. - (0.3) (0.9) (1.8) (1.6) 14.5 (0.8)

EBIT 100.8 87.6 15.0 99.7 1.1 397.0 375.0 5.9 402.2 In line.

Interest expense (34.2) (31.5) 8.5 (38.1) (10.3) (138.9) (135.0) 3.0 (128.3) Slightly above.

Interest & invt inc 2.1 0.6 237.4 2.0 9.5 6.6 2.3 181.0 3.8 Abv.

Associates' contrib 2.5 1.8 7.7 20.3 26.1 (22.4) 26.1 Slightly below.

Exceptionals & revaln 65.5 38.7 68.9 1.9 3,352.0 249.5 115.8 115.5 180.7 Revaluation gain on properties

Pretax profit 136.6 97.3 40.4 73.1 86.9 534.3 384.3 39.1 484.5 Abv. Reval gain on properties

Tax - (0.0) (100.0) - 2.0 (0.0) 4,517.8 1.9

Tax rate (%) - 0.0 - (0.4) 0.0 (3,277.1) (0.4)

Minority interests - - - - -

Net profit 136.6 97.2 40.5 73.1 86.9 536.3 384.2 39.6 486.5 Abv. Reval gain on properties

Distr profit 79.8 75.5 5.7 80.9 (1.4) 316.9 301.6 5.1 324.8 Slightly below. 4Q: 25%; FY: 98%

Core net profit 71.2 58.5 21.7 71.2 (0.1) 286.9 268.4 6.9 305.8

DPU (cts) 2.4 2.3 2.6 2.4 (2.5) 9.5 9.4 1.0 9.8 Slightly below. 4Q: 24%; FY: 97%

SOURCE: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS


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Ascendas REITJanuary 18, 2013

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In search of growthManagement remains on the lookout for growth, be it through acquisitions orasset enhancements. For the former, pipeline acquisitions from its sponsorinclude StarVista and ION Orchard. Management is also keeping an eye onthird-party assets, though noting the possibility of greenfield developmentsthrough GLS site tenders if sellers pricing remain unpalatable.

Meanwhile, with views of a bottoming office market, management is studyingthe feasibility of revisiting AEIs at Funan Digitalife Mall and Tampines Mallwhich had previously received planning permissions for increased office plotratio. This proposition could be favourable for Funan Digitalife Mall which hasbeen underperforming with increased competition from other IT malls. Weunderstand that management has in fact locked in and paid up a differentialpremium back in Jun 2008 for Funan.

Figure 1: Potential AEIs

SOURCES: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS

Updates on AEIThe latest developments on the AEI front include:

The Atrium@Orchard: Opened in end-Oct 2012; 95.3% of total retailand office space committed as at end-Dec 2012.

Clarke Quay: Fully completed in early Jan 2013; new spacefully-leased.

IMM: 40 outlet brands committed as at end-2012, of which 32 are

already operational. On track to realise target of opening 50 outletbrands by May 2013.

Westgate: Mall and office on track for completion in 4Q13 and 4Q14respectively. Both are reportedly 50% pre-committed.

nanc a ummary

Dec-11A Dec-12A Dec-13F Dec-14F Dec-15F

Gross Property Revenue (S$m) 630.6 661.6 708.6 723.4 730.3

Net Property Income (S$m) 418.2 445.3 480.4 492.3 496.9

Net Profit (S$m) 389.6 537.1 317.1 344.7 348.4Distributable Profit (S$m) 301.6 316.9 348.1 375.7 403.0

Core EPS (S$) 0.08 0.08 0.09 0.10 0.10

Core EPS Growth 2.50% 2.57% 8.48% 8.72% 1.06%

FD Core P/E (x) 26.20 25.54 23.55 21.66 21.43

DPS (S$) 0.09 0.09 0.10 0.11 0.12

Dividend Yield 4.34% 4.38% 4.66% 5.03% 5.40%

Asset Leverage 37.3% 36.1% 36.6% 36.9% 37.0%

BVPS (S$) 1.58 1.65 1.65 1.66 1.66

P/BV (x) 1.37 1.31 1.31 1.30 1.30

Recurring ROE 5.27% 5.24% 5.55% 6.02% 6.07%

% Change In DPS Estimates (0.08%) (1.60%)

CIMB/consensus EPS (x) 0.94 0.95 1.01

1.601.70

1.80

1.90

2.00

2.10

2.20

2.30

9095

100

105

110

115

120

125Price Close Relative to FSSTI (RHS)

Source: Bloomberg

5

1015

20

25

Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12

Volm

2.16

2.23

1.71 2.20

Target

52-week share price range

Current

SOURCE: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS


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Figure 2: Repositioning of IMM


Figure 3: Westgate on track for completion in 4Q13



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Further details on results

Figure 4: FY12 NPI up 6.5% yoy


Figure 5: Positive rental reversions



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Figure 8: Shopper traffic down 1.4% yoy Figure 9: Tenant sales up 1.6% yoy

SOURCES: CIMB, URA REALIS SOURCES: CIMB, URA REALIS

Figure 10: Tenant sales by trade categories



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Figure 11: Debt maturity profile (long average term to maturity of 3.9 years)


Figure 12: Valuations and valuation cap rates



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CapitaMall TrustJanuary 18, 2013

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Figure 13: CIMB REIT Overview

SREIT Price as of

18 Jan 13

HospitalityAscott Residence Trust ART SP $1.41 $1,617 40.6% 1.37 1.03 1.38$ N 6.5% 6.7% 4.6%

Ascendas Hospitality Trust ASHT SP $0.97 $779 37.5% 0.77 1.26 NA NR 7.0% 7.6%

CDL Hospitality Trust CDREIT SP $1.98 $1,913 25.5% 1.60 1.24 2.15$ N 6.2% 6.4% 14.6%

Far East Hospitality Trust FEHT SP $1.01 $1,612 30.4% 0.93 1.08 NA NR 6.0% 6.0%

Simple Average 33.5% 1.15 6.4% 6.7%

Industrial

AIMS AMP AAREIT SP $1.58 $706 31.5% 1.44 1.09 NA NR 7.1% 7.5%

Ascendas Reit AREIT SP $2.50 $5,620 32.8% 1.88 1.33 2.68$ O 5.8% 6.0% 12.9%

Cache Logistics Trust CACHE SP $1.25 $882 32.5% 0.92 1.36 1.36$ O 6.9% 7.3% 16.0%

Cambridge Industrial Trust CREIT SP $0.69 $845 33.1% 0.62 1.10 0.76$ O 7.3% 7.4% 17.7%

Mapletree Logistics Trust MLT SP $1.16 $2,816 35.9% 0.90 1.29 1.20$ N 6.2% 6.3% 10.0%

Mapletree Industrial Trust MINT SP $1.39 $2,282 37.8% 1.02 1.36 1.50$ N 6.5% 6.8% 14.6%

Sabana Shariah SSREIT SP $1.16 $759 37.6% 1.07 1.08 NA NR 8.0% 7.6%

Simple Average 35.0% 1.25 6.8% 6.9%

Office

Frasers Commercial Trust FCOT SP $1.34 $872 39.5% 1.50 0.89 1.42$ O 5.8% 6.4% 12.3%

CapitaCommercial Trust CCT SP $1.66 $4,819 30.9% 1.58 1.05 1.69$ U 4.9% 4.8% 6.8%Keppel REIT KREIT SP $1.37 $3,605 44.1% 1.25 1.10 1.26$ N 5.6% 5.6% -2.7%

Suntec REIT SUN SP $1.68 $3,844 39.5% 1.95 0.86 1.72$ N 5.5% 5.7% 7.9%

Simple Average 38.5% 0.97 5.4% 5.6%

Retail

CapitaMall Trust CT SP $2.17 $7,466 36.7% 1.64 1.32 2.23$ U 4.6% 5.0% 7.4%

Frasers Centrepoint Trust FCT SP $2.00 $1,664 30.1% 1.53 1.31 2.18$ O 5.3% 5.4% 14.4%

Starhill Global REIT SGREIT SP $0.82 $1,593 30.5% 0.95 0.86 0.83$ N 6.1% 6.3% 6.8%

Mapletree Commercial Trust MCT SP $1.22 $2,283 37.7% 0.95 1.28 1.39$ O 5.3% 5.5% 20.1%

Simple Average 33.8% 1.19 5.4% 5.6%

Healthcare

Parkway Life REIT PREIT SP $2.30 $1,361 36.4% 1.48 1.55 2.28$ N 4.7% 5.2% 3.6%

Simple Average 36.4% 1.55 4.7% 5.2%

Simple average for SIN 35.5% 1.18 6.0% 6.2%

MREIT Price as of

18 Jan 13

Retail

Capitamalls Malaysia Trust CMMT MK $1.94 $3,448 28.4% 1.10 1.77 1.91$ O 4.5% 4.7% 3.0%

IGB REIT IGBREIT MK $1.39 $4,726 35.3% 1.01 1.38 1.50$ O 4.8% 5.1% 13.1%

Sunway REIT SREIT MK $1.54 $4,132 35.3% 1.01 1.52 1.63$ O 5.1% 5.5% 11.4%

Pavilion REIT PREIT MK $1.48 $4,416 19.1% 0.96 1.54 1.59$ O 5.0% 5.3% 12.7%

Simple Average 29.5% 1.55 4.9% 5.2%

Industrial

Axis REIT AXRB MK $3.16 $1,452 24.0% 2.07 1.53 NA NR 5.1% 5.6%

Simple Average 24.0% 1.53 5.1% 5.6%

Simple average for MAL 28.4% 1.55 4.9% 5.3%

Simple average for ALL 33.9% 1.26 5.8% 6.0%

Bbg Code

Mkt Cap

(LC $m)

Price /

Stated

NAV

Price /

Stated

NAV

Bloomberg

Ticker

Mkt Cap

(LC $m)

Last

reported

asset

leverage

Last

stated

NAV

Last

reported

asset

leverage

Last

stated

NAV

Target

Price

(DDM-

based) Rec.

2013

Yield

2014

Yield

Total return

(Prospective

price upside +

2013 yield)

Target

Price

(DDM-

based) Rec.

Total return

(Prospective

price upside +

2013 yield)

2012

Yield

2013

Yield

SOURCES: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS, BLOOMBERG


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Spitzer Chart for stock being researched ( 2 year data )

1.5

1.61.7

1.8

1.9

2.0

2.1

2.2

2.3

Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12

Price Close

NR

1.9

9

1.9

9

1.9

8

1.9

3

1.9

3

1.9

3

2.0

2

2.0

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2.0

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Recommendations & Target Price

Outperform Neutral Underperform Trading Buy Trading sell Not Rated

Rating Distribution (%) Investment Banking clients (%)

Outperform/Buy/Trading Buy 54.4% 9.0%

Neutral 34.1% 3.4%

Underperform/Sell/Trading Sell 11.5% 8.6%

Distribution of stock ratings and investment banking clients for quarter ended on 31 December 2012

822 companies under coverage

Recommendation Framework #1 *

Stock Sector

OUTPERFORM: The stock's total return is expected to exceed a relevantbenchmark's total return by 5% or more over the next 12 months.

OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, isexpected to outperform the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months.

NEUTRAL: The stock's total return is expected to be within +/-5% of a relevantbenchmark's total return.

NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, isexpected to perform in line with the relevant primary market index over the next 12months.

UNDERPERFORM: The stock's total return is expected to be below a relevantbenchmark's total return by 5% or more over the next 12 months.

UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, isexpected to underperform the relevant primary market index over the next 12months.

TRADING BUY: The stock's total return is expected to exceed a relevantbenchmark's total return by 5% or more over the next 3 months.

TRADING BUY: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, isexpected to outperform the relevant primary market index over the next 3 months.

TRADING SELL: The stock's total return is expected to be below a relevantbenchmark's total return by 5% or more over the next 3 months.

TRADING SELL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, isexpected to underperform the relevant primary market index over the next 3months.

* This framework only applies to stocks listed on the Singapore Stock Exchange, Bursa Malaysia, Stock Exchange of Thailand, Jakarta Stock Exchange, Australian Securities Exchange, Korea Exchange, Taiwan

Stock Exchange and National Stock Exchange of India/Bombay Stock Exchange. Occasionally, it is permitted for the total expected returns to be temporarily outside the prescribed ranges due to extreme market

volatility or other justifiable company or industry-specific reasons.

CIMB Research Pte Ltd (Co. Reg. No. 198701620M)


12/12


Recommendation Framework #2 **

Stock Sector

OUTPERFORM: Expected positive total returns of 10% or more over the next 12months.

OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, has ahigh number of stocks that are expected to have total returns of +1 0% or better overthe next 12 months.

NEUTRAL: Expected total returns of between -10% and +10% over the next 12months.

NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, has either (i)an equal number of stocks that are expected to have total returns of +10% (or better)or -10% (or worse), or (ii) stocks that are predominantly expected to have total returnsthat will range from +10% to -10%; both over the next 12 months.

UNDERPERFORM: Expected negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12months.

UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, has ahigh number of stocks that are expected to have total returns of -10% or worse overthe next 12 months.

TRADING BUY: Expected positive total returns of 10% or more over the next 3months.

TRADING BUY: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, has ahigh number of stocks that are expected to have total returns of +10% or better overthe next 3 months.

TRADING SELL: Expected negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 3months.

TRADING SELL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, has ahigh number of stocks that are expected to have total returns of -10% or worse overthe next 3 months.

** This framework only applies to stocks listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and China listings on the Singapore Stock Exchange. Occasionally, it is permitted for the total expected returns to be temporarily

outside the prescribed ranges due t o extreme market volatility or other justifiable company or industry-specific reasons.

Corporate Governance Report of Thai Listed Companies (CGR). CG Rating by the Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD) in 2011.

AAV not available, ADVANC - Excellent, AMATA - Very Good, AOT - Excellent, AP - Very Good, BANPU - Excellent , BAY - Excellent , BBL - Excellent, BCH - Good, BEC - VeryGood, BECL - Very Good, BGH - not available, BH - Very Good, BIGC - Very Good, BTS - Very Good, CCET - Good, CK - Very Good, CPALL - Very Good, CPF - Very Good, CPN -Excellent, DELTA - Very Good, DTAC - Very Good, GLOBAL - not available, GLOW - Very Good, GRAMMY Excellent, HANA - Very Good, HEMRAJ - Excellent, HMPRO - Very

Good, INTUCH Very Good, ITD - Good, IVL - Very Good, JAS Very Good, KAMART not available, KBANK - Excellent, KK - Excellent, KTB - Excellent, LH - Very Good,

LPN - Excellent, MAJOR - Very Good, MCOT - Excellent, MINT - Very Good, PS - Excellent, PSL - Excellent, PTT - Excellent, PTTGC - not available, PTTEP - Excellent, QH -Excellent, RATCH - Excellent, ROBINS - Excellent, RS - Excellent, SC Excellent, SCB - Excellent, SCC - Excellent, SCCC - Very Good, SIRI - Very Good, SPALI - Very Good,STA - Very Good, STEC - Very Good, TCAP - Very Good, THAI - Very Good, THCOM Very Good, TISCO - Excellent, TMB - Excellent, TOP - Excellent, TRUE - Very Good, TUF -Very Good, WORK - Good.

180113 Capitamall Trust - Cimb

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