18 may 2012 osint levant tracker

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TheCENTCOM This OSINT publication contains foreign mediaderived entirely from open sources in andaround the CENTCOM AOR.

18 May 20

EGYPT

Armed Forces Prepare Presidential Election Security: Egypt IndependentThe ruling military council approved a plan to secure the upcoming presidential elections, a military source said, thesource said that 95 percent of the security forces securing the elections, scheduled to take plan on 23 and 24 May,would be military personnel.

Egypt Shuts Down Newly-Inaugurated Shiite Mosque in Cairo: Al Arabiya The Egyptian authorities shut down a Shiite ―Husseiniya‖, a name given to the Shiite mosque, which was latelyinaugurated by Lebanese Shiite cleric Ali al-Korani during his recent visit to Cairo, sources close to Al Arabiya said.

Dar Al-Ifta: Islam Prohibits Handouts to Influence Voters: MENA Islam prohibits presidential candidates from securing votes through handouts of money, food, or anything else,according to a statement from Egypt‘s official authority for issuing fatwas, or religious opinions.

Domestic Trade Ministry Blames Petroleum Ministry for Fuel Crisis: Al-Masry Al-Youm Social Solidarity and Domestic Trade Minister Gouda Abdel Khaleq held a conference Thursday morning to discussthe fuel crisis, Abdel Khaleq stressed in a statement issued by his ministry the need to declare a state ofemergency to monitor the markets.

SCAF to Issue New Constitutional Declaration: Ahram Online The Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) is to issue a new constitutional declaration, or revive anamended version the 1971 constitution, specifying the new president's powers, before polls open Wednesday,according to a military source.

Details of Egypt's 2012/13 State Budget Remain Vague: Ahram OnlineThe particulars of next year's state budget – released this week by the local media – 'lack accuracy and will be

modified,' finance ministry source asserts. A finance ministry source told Ahram Online, "We haven‘t seen thesefigures and they can‘t be trusted."

Israel Becomes Target in Egypt’s Presidential Race: The Daily StarIsrael has become a punching bag for politicians vying for votes in Egypt‘s presidential election, playing on popular antipathy in Egypt toward its neighbor, but the realities of office are likely to ensure a 33-year-old peace treaty is not

jeopardized. ―Of course Israel is an enemy. It occupied land, it threatened our security. It is an entity that has 200nuclear warheads,‖ Islamist Abdel-Moneim Abol Fotouh said in a TV debate when asked about Israel, referring to anuclear arsenal Israel is believed to possess but neither confirms nor denies having.

ISRAEL / GAZA

Iran Attack Decision Nears, Israeli Elite Locks Down: Maan News Agency

A private door opens from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office in central Jerusalem directly into along, modestly furnished, half-paneled room decorated with modern paintings by Israeli artists and a copy of Israel's1948 declaration of independence.

Hamas Political Bureau Leader to be Elected in Next 10 Days: Asharq Al-Awsat The elections for the Hamas Consultative Council and Shura Council have been completed, leaving only theelection of the Hamas Political Bureau, as well as the Political Bureau leadership.

Israeli Tanks Fires on Gaza Border, 8 Injured: AGIAt least eight Palestinians were hurt in an attack by an Israeli tank in eastern Gaza near the Karni crossing.



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Palestinian medical sources added that two of the injured are in serious condition. Some witnesses said that all theinjured were farmers.

Al-Zahar Blasts European 'Hypocrisy' on Hamas: Israel National NewsHamas co-founder Mahmoud al-Zahar accused the West of hypocrisy and prejudice towards the terror movementon Thursday.

JORDAN

Fire Erupts During Israeli Demining Activities, Spreads to Jordanian Territory: Jordan TimesA few dunums of land in the Jordan Valley were burnt late Wednesday when a fire broke out as a result of Israelide-mining operations, the Civil Defence Department (CDD) said on Thursday.

UAE Red Crescent Provides 5,000 Food Parcels for Syrians in Jordan: PetraThe UAE Red Crescent Society on Thursday completed preparing 5,000 food parcels to be handed out to Syrianrefugees residing in Jordan.

Jordan- King Reasserts Commitment to Holding Elections this Year: MENAFNKing Abdullah reiterated his commitment to seeing parliamentary elections come through before the end of thisyear, urging the Senate to do its utmost to accelerate the enactment of legislation pertaining to political reform, aRoyal Court statement said.

LEBANON

Escaped Ain El-Hilweh Militants Headed to Tripoli then Syria: NaharnetThe whereabouts of the six militants who had escaped the Ain el-Hilweh Palestinian refugee camp remainsunknown, reported al-Joumhouria newspaper on Friday.

Charbel Warns of Sunni-Shia Strife: Now LebanonInterior Minister Marwan Charbel on Thursday warned against Sunni-Shia strife in Lebanon, ―If the unrest in thenorthern city of Tripoli continues, it will be the starting point for the biggest strife in the history of Lebanon,‖ theNational News Agency also quoted Charbel as saying.

Al-Manar: Seven Fatah Al-Islam Members Head to Syria: Al ManarAl-Manar television station reported on Thursday that ―seven members from Fatah al-Islam left the Ain al-HilwehPalestinian refugee camp and headed to Syria.‖

Military Court Rejects Al-Mawlawi’s Release Request: Nahar NetThe Military Tribunal rejected on Friday Islamist Shadi al-Mawlawi‘s request to be released from detention, therequest has been rejected by Military Examining Magistrate Nabil Wehbeh and Government Commissioner to the

Military Court Judge Saqr Saqr.

Iranian Revolutionary Guards to Hezbollah: Hands off Israel: Jerusalem PostAn Iranian Revolutionary Guards commander reportedly ordered Hezbollah not to attack Israel.

SYRIA

Live Blog on Developments in Syria: Now LebanonA number of anti-regime protests kicked off in numerous areas, including Hama, Qalaat al-Madiq, Kafr Zita, Daraaand across Aleppo. Syrian forces have fired on people in several locations.



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Syrian: Rebels Getting Outside Help: UPIThe seizure of a ship off Lebanon carrying arms reportedly destined for rebels in Syria underlines how the 14-month-old conflict is being increasingly militarized.

Supporting Documentation:

EGYPT (Top)

18 May 2012Egypt IndependentArmed Forces Prepare Presidential Election Security

Unclassified

The ruling military council approved a plan to secure the upcoming presidential elections, a military source said, thesource said that 95 percent of the security forces securing the elections, scheduled to take plan on 23 and 24 May,would be military personnel.

The leaders of the military units have already inspected the polling stations and the units have been given specificguidelines for dealing with unrest, the source added.

He stressed that any acts of thuggery or rioting would be firmly dealt with in order to protect the voting process.

"The Second Field Army will secure six governorates: Ismailia, Port Said, Daqahlia, Sharqiya, Damietta and NorthSinai. The Third Field Army will secure the polling stations in the governorates of Suez and South Sinai, while thenaval forces will secure polling stations in Alexandria, Beheira and Kafr al-Sheikh," the source said.

Field Marshal Hussein Tantawi, head of the ruling military council, met with military Chief of Staff Sami Anan andPrime Minister Kamal al-Ganzouri on Thursday to discuss the final preparations for the presidential election.

The ministers of interior, foreign affairs, planning and international cooperation and justice also attended themeeting.

Foreign Minister Mohamed Kamel Amr said that as of Thursday morning, over 224,000 Egyptian expatriates casttheir votes in the presidential election. He said that each foreign embassy would announce results separately aseach of them represents a different district. Expatriate voting ended on Thursday.



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18 May 2012Al ArabiyaEgypt Shuts Down Newly-Inaugurated Shiite Mosque in Cairo The Egyptian authorities shut down a Shiite ―Husseiniya‖, a name given to the Shiite mosque, which was latelyinaugurated by Lebanese Shiite cleric Ali al-Korani during his recent visit to Cairo, sources close to Al Arabiya said.The sources said that the Egyptian authorities confiscated the publications, posters and recordings found in themosque. The authorities‘ decision to shut down the mosque was final, according to Al Arabiya sources.

The recent inauguration of the ―Husseiniya‖ has angered the influential Sunni Muslim al-Azhar institute and otherSunni clerics, who regarded it as a move to spread Shiite Islam in Egypt.

Meanwhile, some Shiite figures regarded the move as a means of rapprochement between the different Islamicdoctrines.

Following the inauguration of the Husseiniya in Cairo, a numbers of Shiites gathered and practiced some Shiiterituals which included beating their chests and chanting poems to commemorate the death of a number ofdescendants of Prophet Mohammed (PBUH). Shiites are accustomed to such practices in each of Iraq, Iran,Afghanistan, Pakistan and Lebanon.

Al-Korani‘s recent visit to Cairo has been slammed by al-Azhar, the Islamic Research Academy and the Ministry ofReligious Endowments. The Sunni clerics criticized the religious seminars that al-Korani has attended and thelectures that he has given in the houses of some Shiites living in Cairo and other governorates. They described theShiite cleric‘s move as an ―unacceptable red line‖ and considered it as an attempt to spread the Shiite doctrine inEgypt.

18 May 2012

MENADar Al-Ifta: Islam Prohibits Handouts to Influence Voters

Unclassified

Islam prohibits presidential candidates from securing votes through handouts of money, food, or anything else,according to a statement from Egypt‘s official authority for issuing fatwas, or religious opinions.

Dar al-Ifta also called on all presidential candidates to be honest and fulfill the pledges they have made to theEgyptian people.



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The statement said Islam demands honesty and respect for free will, and therefore forbids corruption, lying, briberyand poor ethics that exploit people‘s needs.

The fatwa went on to say that voting in the election is considered a form of testimony, and that God prohibits thesilencing of testimony.

According to the fatwa, endorsing falsehoods is also a form of concealing testimony, which is forbidden in theQuran and Sunnah. It said one of the signs indicating the approach of Judgment Day is the loss of honesty and thatimportant matters are placed in the hands of the wrong people.

18 May 2012Al-Masry Al-YoumDomestic Trade Ministry Blames Petroleum Ministry for Fuel Crisis Social Solidarity and Domestic Trade Minister Gouda Abdel Khaleq held a conference Thursday morning to discussthe fuel crisis.

Abdel Khaleq stressed in a statement issued by his ministry the need to declare a state of emergency to monitorthe markets.

Domestic Trade Ministry sources blamed the Petroleum Ministry for the crisis, saying it does not provide thenecessary amount of diesel and gasoline.

The sources said that the Domestic Trade Ministry called on the Petroleum Ministry more than once to increase thequantities of fuel on the market after the former detected a shortage on the market.

The sources said that the Petroleum Ministry could not afford to import raw materials.

Mahmoud Hosny, undersecretary of the Domestic Trade Ministry in Giza said the gasoline and diesel shortage isongoing in Giza.

―The governorate [Giza] is suffering from a shortage in diesel fuel by 10 percent, which confirms an improvement inthe shortage rate, which was previously 15 percent,‖ he told Al-Masry Al-Youm.

He added that 6th of October City has been facing increased traffic congestion due to the fuel shortage.

When Al-Masry Al-Youm visited gas stations in Cairo and Giza, taxi drivers said they have been standing in queuesfor two to three hours waiting for gas, accusing the Cabinet and the military junta of failing to solve the crisis.

17 May 2012Ahram OnlineSCAF to Issue New Constitutional Declaration



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Unclassified

The Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) is to issue a new constitutional declaration, or revive anamended version the 1971 constitution, specifying the new president's powers, before polls open Wednesday,

according to a military source.

The move comes after the constituent assembly failed to draft a new constitution in time.

SCAF members discussed the move with political party representatives at a meeting Tuesday.

Farid Ismail, head of the Freedom and Justice Party's defence and national security committee, said his partyopposed the move and would discuss alternatives with other political parties over the coming days.

Yusri Hammad, official spokesman of Salafist Nour Party, told Al-Shorouk that "the party supports the SCAF'sdecision to help us emerge from the current crisis."

Independent MP Wahid Abdel-Meguid said a meeting of political parties scheduled for Wednesday at the liberal

Wafd Party's premises was cancelled because Wafd Party leader El-Sayed El-Badawi preferred to wait until theSCAF's new temporary constitution was officially published in the state-run Al-Gareeda Al-Rasmeya newspaper.

Egypt's first presidential elections after ouster of Hosni Mubarak will take place on 23/24 June.

Saad El-Katatni, speaker of People's Assembly, announced on Wednesday that all assembly activities would betemporarily suspended until 26 May, two days after Egypt's first post-Mubarak presidential polls.

Attempts by Egypt's political elites to proceed in the constitutional-drafting process have been beset with troublesfrom the start, the first assembly being disbanded.

Days after the formation of the first assembly, a mass walkout jeopardised the constitution-drafting body. Membersfrom liberal and leftist parties, independent prominent figures and representatives of professional and trade unionsas well as representatives of the Coptic Church and Egypt's main Islamic authority, Al-Azhar, all pulled out, citingdisproportionate representation.

17 May 2012Ahram OnlineDetails of Egypt's 2012/13 State Budget Remain Vague: OfficialThe particulars of next year's state budget – released this week by the local media – 'lack accuracy and will bemodified,' finance ministry source asserts



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Given Egypt's current state of political ambiguity and uncertainty, details of the state's 2012/2013 budget remain amystery. According to a finance ministry source, figures recently reported by the media lack accuracy and will besubject to modification.

Flagship state daily Al-Ahram reported on Thursday that Egypt's Cabinet approved on Wednesday the new statebudget, before referring it to the ruling Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF).

The paper went on to report that total expenditures for the coming fiscal year beginning on 1 July stood at LE533.7billion. Total revenue, meanwhile, stand at LE393.4 billion, indicating an LE140.3-billion deficit, according to figurespublished by Al-Ahram.

But the finance ministry source told Ahram Online, "We haven‘t seen these figures and they can‘t be trusted."

Nevertheless, the proposed budget has already been referred to interim prime minister Kamal El-Ganzouri, whoreportedly forwarded it on to Egypt's planning and international cooperation ministry.

A planning ministry source, however, told Ahram Online: "These figures will be modified an d won‘t be made publicbefore next week."

So far, no official documents confirming these figures have been released or given to journalists.

The authority of Planning Minister Faiza Abul-Naga, one of only two ministers to retain their posts from the Mubarakera, has reportedly been bolstered under the tutelage of the ruling SCAF, according to former ministers in Egypt'spost-revolution government.

The draft budget will most likely not be debated in parliament before the end of this month, in light of a recentdecision by Parliament Speaker Saad El-Katatni to suspend parliamentary activity until 26 May, two days after

Egypt's first post-Mubarak presidential polls.

Egyptian law stipulates, however, that Egypt's executive authority must refer the draft budget to parliament 90 daysbefore the start of the financial year, meaning that it should have been delivered to lawmakers for review by 1 April.

Parliament is now reportedly awaiting the SCAF's approval of the proposed budget.

18 May 2012The Daily StarIsrael Becomes Target in Egypt’s Presidential Race By Edmund Blair



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(U) An advertisement billboard shows a portrait of former Arab League General Secretary and presidential candidate Amr Mussa (L) and former prime minister and candidate Ahmed Shafiq in front of Mohammed Ali citadel in Cairo on May 16, 2012. (AFP PHOTO / KHALED DESOUKI)

Israel has become a punching bag for politicians vying for votes in Egypt‘s presidential election, playing on popular antipathy in Egypt toward its neighbor, but the realities of office are likely to ensure a 33-year-old peace treaty is not

jeopardized.

Officials in Israel have watched Egypt‘s political turmoil with increasing wariness after the downfall of HosniMubarak, who oversaw a cold yet stable peace.

An ex-air force commander in the race to be the new president boasts of bringing down Israeli aircraft in 1973, thelast of Egypt‘s four wars with Israel.

One Islamist often refers to Israel as the ―Zionist entity‖ and the ―enemy‖ and a leftist candidate pledges to su pportthe Palestinian resistance against the Jewish state.

None of the candidates want to tear up the treaty signed in 1979 but they repeatedly warn in rallies and debates itshould be reviewed. Many of them grumble at provisions in the U.S.-brokered deal they say are biased in Israel‘s

favor.

Yet, beyond the bluster of the campaign trail, the next president‘s in-tray will be full of more pressing issues such asreviving an economy on the ropes.

He will also preside over a nation where the entrenched establishment of the army and security services – who keptthe peace secure – remains intact.



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―Of course Israel is an enemy. It occupied land, it threatened our security. It is an entity that has 200 nuclear warheads,‖ Islamist Abdel-Moneim Abol Fotouh said in a TV debate when asked about Israel, referring to a nucleararsenal Israel is believed to possess but neither confirms nor denies having.

Seeking to trip up his opponent in the novel TV face-off in a nation that has never had an open leadership contest,Abol Fotouh pressed former Arab League chief Amr Moussa on whether he too classed Israel an enemy. Moussachose the term ―adversary.‖

Moussa, who like Abol Fotouh is a front-runner in the race, was Mubarak‘s foreign minister in the 1990s beforemoving to the League. In both posts he was a vocal critic of Israel.

An Israeli newspaper commentator wrote last month that Moussa had intense disdain for Israel.

―I intend to review the shape of relations,‖ Moussa pledged, describing ―big disagreements,‖ but he said the nextpresident would need to lead Egypt ―with wisdom and not push it along with slogans toward a confrontation we maynot be ready for.‖

Former Israeli Ambassador to Egypt Itzhak Lebanon said Israel‘s main duty was ―to tell the Egyptians loudly thatthe peace treaty is also in their interests and that they will have to do everything to keep it.‖

He said comments made on the election trail did not always translate into action in office. ―It is like that in allcountries,‖ he said.

Like Moussa, other candidates have also reflected a more cautious line when fielding inevitable questions aboutIsrael.

Abol Fotouh, who often refers to Israel as the ―Zionist entity,‖ said Egypt should review its treaties to ensure they

were in the national interest but was not looking to start any war.

Ahmad Shafiq, who like Mubarak was a former air force commander before joining the ex-president‘s Cabinet, tolda rally when he was questioned about Israel: ―A strong state is not just one with artillery and tanks but has a strongeconomy, strong science, strong culture.‖

But tough talk still features on the campaign trail.

Leftist candidate Hamdeen Sabahy pledged in a television interview: ―I will support whoever resists Israel, notbecause of nationalism, Arabism or morality, although this is what it is, but because these are the laws of theUnited Nations.‖

Safwat al-Hegazi, an independent preacher who backs the Muslim Brotherhood‘s candidate Mohammad Mursi, has

used his campaign rallies to call for the establishment of a single Arab state with occupied Jerusalem as its capital.

Mursi criticizes the Jewish state but says he would respect the treaty, which brings $1.3 billion a year of U.S.military aid. An aide to Mursi said that his candidate would not meet Israeli officials as president, though his foreignminister would.

Western diplomats say popular pressure on a newly elected president could encourage more outspoken criticism ofIsrael. However, they say the top army and security officials who have for years kept close ties with their Israelicounterparts to coordinate across the border were likely to keep ties steady.



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―There are red lines and I think everyone is aware of them. Egypt needs its close relationship with the UnitedStates, it needs the financial assistance, the investment and the loans to survive,‖ said Shadi Hamid, director of research at the Brookings Doha Center.

The peace deal has been a cornerstone of Egypt‘s foreign policy and, while it may not have the prominenceMubarak gave it, the generals who have overseen Egypt‘s transition are unlikely to let that change.

The army is expected to remain influential long after the formal handover to a new president by July 1.

Nevertheless, Hamid said Egypt‘s politicians could ―test how far they can go ... before arousing the wrath of theinternational community.‖

ISRAEL / GAZA (Top)

18 May 2012Maan News AgencyIran Attack Decision Nears, Israeli Elite Locks Down

(U) Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (L) holds a joint news conference

A private door opens from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office in central Jerusalem directly into along, modestly furnished, half-paneled room decorated with modern paintings by Israeli artists and a copy of Israel's1948 declaration of independence.

It contains little more than a long wooden table, brown leather chairs and a single old-fashioned white projectorscreen.

This inner sanctum at the end of a corridor between Netanyahu's private room and the office of his top militaryadviser, is where one of the decade's most momentous military decisions could soon be taken: to launch an Israeliattack on Iran's nuclear program.

Time for that decision is fast running out and the mood in Jerusalem is hardening.

Iran continues to enrich uranium in defiance of international pressure, saying it needs the fuel for its civilian nuclearprogram. The West is convinced that Tehran's real objective is to build an atomic bomb -- something which Israelwill never accept because its leaders consider a nuclear armed-Iran a threat to its very existence.

Adding to the international pressure, US ambassador to Israel Daniel Shapiro said this week American militaryplans to strike Iran were "ready" and the option was "fully available."



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The central role Iran plays in Netanyahu's deliberations is reflected in the huge map of the Middle East hanging bythe door of his office. Israel lies on one edge, with Iran taking pride of place in the center.

Experts say that within a few months, much of Iran's nuclear program will have been moved deep undergroundbeneath the Fordow mountain, making a successful military strike much more difficult.

Lockdown

As the deadline for a decision draws nearer, the public pronouncements of Israel's top officials and military havechanged. After hawkish warnings about a possible strike earlier this year, their language of late has been moreguarded and clues to their intentions more difficult to discern.

"The top of the government has gone into lockdown," one official said. "Nobody is saying anything publicly. That initself tells you a lot about where things stand."

Last week Netanyahu pulled off a spectacular political surprise, creating a coalition of national unity and delayingelections which everyone believed were inevitable. The maneuver also led to speculation that the Israeli leaderwanted a broad, strong government to lead a military campaign.

The inclusion of the Iranian-born former Israeli chief of staff and veteran soldier, Gen. Shaul Mofaz, in the coalition,fueled that speculation -- even though both Mofaz and Netanyahu deny that Iran was mentioned in the coalitionnegotiations.

"I think they have made a decision to attack," said one senior Israeli figure with close ties to the leadership. "It isgoing to happen. The window of opportunity is before the US presidential election in November. This way they willbounce the Americans into supporting them."

Those close to Netanyahu are more cautious, saying no assumptions should be made about an attack on Iran -- anattack with such potentially devastating consequences across the volatile Middle East that President MahmoudAbbas even went so far as to predict in an interview last week that it would be "the end of the world".

Israelis particularly fear retaliation from Iran's proxy militias -- the Hezbollah guerrillas in southern Lebanon and theHamas fighters in the Gaza Strip. Both are believed to possess large arsenals of rockets which could hit majorIsraeli towns and cities.

Hezbollah's deputy leader Sheikh Naim Qassem told Reuters in February that an Israeli attack on Iran would setthe whole Middle East ablaze "with no limit to the fires."

"Gone are the days when Israel decides to strike, and the people are silent," he said.

The Israeli prime minister and his key allies repeat for public consumption the mantra that economic sanctionsagainst Iran must be given time to work and that now is not the time to speak about military options.

Top officials explain the new coalition on purely domestic grounds, saying it was needed to tackle the thorny anddivisive issue of pressing Orthodox Jews into military service -- in other words, that its formation has much more todo with the agenda inside Israel than abroad.

Buried nuclear states



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Diplomats are divided. "I think the Iran thing is a red herring," said one senior Western envoy. "This is 98 percentabout domestic politics". Others are less convinced.

Mofaz himself refuses to speak about military action against Iran, even in the theoretical.

A military veteran with almost 40 years' operational experience, whose office in the Israeli parliament displays aposter of Israeli warplanes flying low over the Auschwitz concentration camp, he scoffs at the idea that his Iraniandescent gives him special influence on an Iran attack decision. He derides the idea any serious official in the knowwould talk to visiting journalists about such a sensitive military subject.

But behind the carefully evasive language of top officials, basic facts are clear. Time is running out. Iran's nuclearprogram -- regarded by Netanyahu as an existential threat to the state of Israel -- will soon be buried deep enoughunderground to render an Israeli attack impossible. Israel's options are narrowing.

"I think they've gone into lockdown mode now," the senior Western diplomat said. "Whatever happens next,whatever they decide, we will not find out until it happens."

There are indeed those who see in Israeli posturing over Iran only bluff intended to press world powers into harshersanctions and avoid war. Some military experts openly doubt how much damage Israel could inflict. The risk of afiasco is big.

Perhaps the strongest clue as to Israel's real intentions is to be found in Netanyahu's private office, behind hisdesk. Officials say the Israeli premier was strongly influenced by his father, who died last month at the age of 102.

Benzion Netanyahu was a distinguished scholar of Jewish history and his strong sense of the past lives on inBenjamin, who laments to visitors that "most people's sense of history goes back to breakfast time".

On a shelf behind Netanyahu's desk, along with pictures of his family, is a photograph of Winston Churchill.Netanyahu admires the British wartime premier because he saw the true dangers posed by Nazi Germany to theworld at a time when many other politicians argued for appeasing Hitler.

To Netanyahu, the parallels with modern-day Iran are obvious. The Israeli premier is explicit about the dangers hebelieves are posed by militant Islam: as he puts it, its convulsive power, its cult of death and its ideological zeal.

But Churchill, although eloquent on the dangers posed by the rise of Nazi Germany during the 1930s, ultimatelyfailed to prevent Hitler's ascent to power, the world war he unleashed or the Holocaust in which six million Jewswere murdered.

Netanyahu, those who know him say, is determined to avoid going down in history as the man who shirked hisopportunity to stop Iran going nuclear.

18 May 2012Israel News4 Killed by Army Shelling, Masses Protest against Assad Four people were killed by Syrian army shelling in the city of Rastan, Al Arabiya reported, Witnesses in severalcities said that mass protests against President Bashar Assad were held following Friday prayers.



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18 May 2012Asharq Al-AwsatHamas Political Bureau Leader to be Elected in Next 10 Days The elections for the Hamas Consultative Council and Shura Council have been completed, leaving only theelection of the Hamas Political Bureau, as well as the Political Bureau leadership. These elections are held every 4years, and are expected to be completed within the next 10 days.

Leading Hamas figure Ahmed Yousef informed Asharq Al-Awsat that current Political Bureau chief Khalid Mishal ismost likely to remain in this post, which he has occupied since 1996. Mishal succeeded Mousa Abu Marzook asHamas chief after Abu Marzook was forced to resign after being arrested in New York in 1995.

Ahmed Yousef, who is a senior adviser to Hamas Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh, revealed that the elections endedlast week, and their results will remain secret.

Responding to a report published by the Israeli Haaretz newspaper that Haniyeh won a majority of the votes butthat Mishal would remain as Hamas chief, although he would no longer be in charge of the military budget, leadingHamas figure Salah al-Bardawil said ―this is a form of Zionist delusion which does not merit discussion…this is purefabrication whose sole aim is to entice Hamas to respond and reveal its cards to the media. We stress that theHamas elections are secret, and we comprehensively reject any interference in this issue‖ adding ―we are under occupation."

Yousef informed Asharq Al-Awsat that Hamas has completed its Consultative Council and Shura Council elections,revealing that local Consultative Councils are selected, who in turn vote for the Hamas Shura Council, whichultimately elects the movement‘s administrative leadership, the Hamas Political Bureau. Yousef refused to revealthe number of members on the Hamas Political Bureau, as well as the number of Hamas members elected to thelocal Consultative Council and Shura Council, stressing these are part of the Palestinian movement‘s secrets andcannot be revealed.

The senior Hamas adviser, who is known for his bold statements, also told Asharq Al-Awsat that Mishal is mostlikely to be re-elected as Hamas Political Bureau chief, although he is facing competition from his rival and deputyMousa Abu Marzook. Yousef stressed that the election of the Hamas Political Bureau will take place during aHamas Shura Council meeting that will be held soon, but refused to reveal precisely where or when this will takeplace.

The Hamas Shura Council met in January in the Sudanese capital Khartoum. During this meeting, Mishalannounced that he did not want to seek re-election as Hamas Political Bureau chief; however his request wasreportedly rejected by the Hamas Shura Council who insisted he should remain in this post for another term. Sudanwas subject to international pressure for hosting the Hamas Shura Council meeting and Khartoum rejected aHamas request to hold a second Shura Council meeting on Sudanese territory. The last Hamas Shura Councilmeeting was held in Cairo in late March, in order to arrange the precise details of the elections.

Well-informed sources expect the first session of the new Hamas Shura Council to be held either in Cairo or Doha.Mousa Abu Marzook has chosen Cairo as a base, whilst Mishal has set himself up in Doha, after Hamas leftDamascus following the recent developments in Syria.

18 May 2012AGIIsraeli Tanks Fires on Gaza Border, 8 Injured



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At least eight Palestinians were hurt in an attack by an Israeli tank in eastern Gaza near the Karni crossing.Palestinian medical sources added that two of the injured are in serious condition. Some witnesses said that all theinjured were farmers.

Initially, Israeli security forces denied the involvement of a tank in the attack, before explaining later that the tankhad opened fire on 'terrorists'. Israel maintains a buffer zone to ensure security along the border with the Gaza Stripcontrolled by Hamas.

18 May 2012Israel National NewsAl-Zahar Blasts European 'Hypocrisy' on Hamas Hamas co-founder Mahmoud al-Zahar accused the West of hypocrisy and prejudice towards the terror movementon Thursday.

―Let me correct you, the movement is not controlling, but we govern according to the results of the election andbecause the West‘s policy is against the development of the Islamic policy, it is described as controlling. We mustgovern in Gaza and in the West Bank and Jerusalem, because that is the results of the elections," al-Zahar toldEuronews reporter, Mohammed Shaikh ibrahim.

―The West is again being hypocritical and against the Muslim world and Islamic influences, in particular it doesn‘twant to accept the results of free and fair elections, which all the world saw were free and fair."

However, al-Zahar declined to comment on the bloody 2007 putsch in which Hamas seized Gaza from the Fatah-ruled Palestinian Authority after being frustrated in the halls of power, and firmly blamed PA chairman MahmoudAbbas for recent failures in reconciling the rival factions.

―First, the agreement made in Cairo over four years ago said we needed to form a national unity government, whichwould not include members of Hamas or Fatah, or even from other Palestinian factions. That is the first point in theDoha agreement," al-Zahar told Shaikh ibrahim.

―The agreement was for a neutral government to hold free and fair elections. The re was pressure from the UnitedStates of America and Israel not to form a government of national unity. They want a government that accepts theQuartet‘s conditions, which are not acceptable to Hamas because of great prejudice against the Palestinian peop le.

―In other words, the Doha agreement had shortcomings in it which means it cannot guarantee the integrity of theelection, Abu Mazen, that is Mahmoud Abbas the President of the Palestinian Authority, would have no part to playin such elections.‖

And secondly, he added, ―Because Abu Mazen is in charge of security cooperation with Israel and responsible for

the conduct of elections. He is responsible for the arrests of members of Hamas, for the confiscation of money, andfor cutting back freedoms, so how can he be objective while ensuring the election results?‖

al-Zahar refused to discuss the schism between the Hamas leadership in Gaza, dominated by himself and IsmailHaniyeh, and its politburo-in-exile run by Khaled Mashaal over the Doha agreement.

―As I have already said I don‘t want to talk about this issue, because it has nothing to do with what happens inGaza," al-Zahar claimed, despite reconciliation directly affecting how Gaza would be run.

He also openly admitted Hamas received military aid from Iran for its ongoing terror activities.



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―We receive all forms of support from them and the entire Arab and Muslim world. Anyone who wants to give to us,we take. We are weak and our Israeli enemy is a nuclear power," al-Zahar said.

He then proceeded to re-write history – adding 1,300 years to the second exile, ignoring the continuous presence ofJews in Jerusalem during the exile, and ignoring all international agreements, including partition – in order to defineall of Israel as "occupied territory."

―I would like to ask those people in the West a series of questions, and I‘m sure they know the answers but do notdare to answer any of them," al-Zahar said.

―The first question is this. What is the origin of our land before 1948, was it a Jewish land? D id it belong to Israel?Or was it the land of the Palestinian Arab, Muslim? That‘s a question to which I want them to give me an answer.

―The return of the Jews, after 3,000 years to establish a state because their ancestors were living there… does theWest accept what is called the right of return? Does it accept the right of return policy?

―So let us return to Spain again because we left in 1492 and called for the re-occupation of Britain, India, and Araband Muslim nations, and called for re-occupation by France of Syria, Lebanon, Algeria..."

al-Zahar also attempted to equate the existence of Israel - backed by the United Nations in 1948 - with the Nazioccupation of France, and compared Hamas to the French Resistance.

―If you ask the French, what they think of the occupation they will say its illegal. And what about the Nazi‘soccupation of France, it is illegal of course and the resistance by Charles de Gaulle‘s followers was seen as actionby warriors for freedom," al-Zahar said.

"But they will not talk about the Israeli occupation of Palestine in the same way, because of their hypocrisy!". .

JORDAN (Top)

18 May 2012Jordan TimesFire Erupts During Israeli Demining Activities, Spreads to Jordanian TerritoryA few dunums of land in the Jordan Valley were burnt late Wednesday when a fire broke out as a result of Israelide-mining operations, the Civil Defence Department (CDD) said on Thursday.

Residents of Southern Shuneh said they heard sounds of explosions late Wednesday, which authorities said werecaused by Israeli mine clearance operations in the Jordan Valley.

On Tuesday and Wednesday, Israeli forces cleared anti-tank mines in an area opposite the central and northernJordan Valley, according to the Jordan Armed Forces, which requested Israel to abide by the amount of explosivespreviously agreed upon during landmine clearance operations.

Rakan Adwan, a resident of Southern Shuneh, which is less than three kilometers away from the King HusseinBridge at the border with the West Bank, said he and his relatives living in the area heard the sound of explosionsuntil Wednesday night.

―My children and relatives living with us in the house heard sounds of explosions late Wednesday. But the soundwas not as strong as it was in February this year when the Israelis also removed mines,‖ Adwan said.



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―People in the neighbourhood said they saw fire, which started within the borders of the West Bank, then reachedJordanian territory, burning several dunums,‖ he said.

A source at the CDD told The Jordan Times Thursday that firefighters rushed to the border area in SouthernShuneh.

―The fire burnt several dunums on the Jordanian side, but we managed to prevent it from spreading. The fire wasbigger on the Israeli side,‖ the source added.

Earlier this year, Israel started clearance activities to remove mines at the border area and near the King HusseinBridge.

In February, sounds of explosions were heard in Amman and other parts of central Jordan for two days in a row,which authorities said were the result of Israeli de-mining activities in the Jordan Valley.

18 May 2012PetraUAE Red Crescent Provides 5,000 Food Parcels for Syrians in JordanThe UAE Red Crescent Society on Thursday completed preparing 5,000 food parcels to be handed out to Syrianrefugees residing in Jordan.

The donations, to be presented to Syrians in coordination with the UAE embassy in Amman, will be stored in theJordan Red Crescent warehouses before being distributed to the refugees. Each parcel contains 15 basic fooditems.

17 May 2012MENAFNJordan- King Reasserts Commitment to Holding Elections this Year



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(U) His Majesty King Abdullah speaks at a meeting with senators in Amman on Wednesday (Photo by Yousef Allan

His Majesty King Abdullah on Wednesday reiterated his commitment to seeing parliamentary elections comethrough before the end of this year, urging the Senate to do its utmost to accelerate the enactment of legislation

pertaining to political reform, a Royal Court statement said.

During a meeting with Senate President Taher Masri and members of the Senate permanent office andcommittees, the King stressed the need for "transparency and courage" in confronting outstanding challenges.

"I do not have any worries dealing with all challenges," the King said, calling for coordination and cooperationamong all parties involved to arrive at parliamentary elections which yield a Parliament that is credible and trulyrepresentative of the people.

Citizens should feel changes in political life in Jordan this year, or else Jordan would have failed to seize theopportunity to capitalize on the Arab Spring and the political reform achieved so far, King Abdullah told thesenators, noting that securing people's confidence in this drive is key to success.

"We meet today to make sure that we are reading on the same page. We must work swiftly and seriously, not onlyon political reform, but also to confront economic challenges and improve citizens' living conditions" the King toldthe senators, noting that economic challenges are serious and "citizens think" how they can make ends meet andabout finding jobs".

During the meeting, Masri said the Upper House agrees with His Majesty that the elections should be conductedthis year after finalizing the relevant legislation.

He also pointed out that the Senate is working to finalize these pieces of legislation swiftly and at the same time,ensuring in-depth studies and that no rash decisions are made.



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Regarding accomplishments, he said the Senate Legal Committee yesterday endorsed the Political Parties Law,adding that the Senate is now waiting to deliberate the Elections Law after it is referred by the Lower House, whereit is being debated by the Legal Committee.

In their remarks at the meeting, senators contributed their perspectives on how to deal with the challenges at hand.

They emphasized that political reform should go hand in hand with economic and social reform, noting that theeducation and the judiciary files are two main targeted field of reform.

LEBANON (Top)

18 May 2012NaharnetEscaped Ain El-Hilweh Militants Headed to Tripoli then Syria

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The whereabouts of the six militants who had escaped the Ain el-Hilweh Palestinian refugee camp remainsunknown, reported al-Joumhouria newspaper on Friday.

It said that it is likely that they headed to the northern city of Tripoli before heading to Syria to take part in the revoltagainst the country‘s ruling regime.

Haitham al-Shaabi, Mohammed al-Aarfi, Ziad Abou al-Niaaj, Mohammed Ibrahim al-Mansour, Oussama Shehabi,Mohammed al-Doukhi, and Toufic Taha escaped Ain el-Hilweh on Tuesday.

Taha‘s escape is yet to be verified.

Five of the militants belong to the al-Qaida terrorist organization, said al-Joumhouria, while An Nahar daily reportedFriday that the militants belong to Jund al-Sham and Fatah al-Islam.

Al-Joumhouria added that Abou Niaaj, a prominent member of al-Qaida, received the order to leave the campdirectly from the organization through the internet.

He was reportedly ordered to head to Tripoli in preparation to traveling to Syria to carry out ―special operations.‖

A security source confirmed the escape to As Safir newspaper on Friday, saying that the militants are in factheading to Syria.



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He revealed that they ―had written their wills and handed them to their families or superiors before leaving thecamp.‖

A widely informed source told the newspaper that the escape may be linked to the various reports on the infiltrationof terrorist groups into Lebanon recently and which are seeking to carry out assassinations against various politicalleaders.

Palestinian sources told the Central News Agency on Thursday that the Palestinian leaderships are vigilant overany emergency development and contacts are ongoing between the various factions and Lebanese securityagencies.

Meanwhile, the Lebanese army discovered overnight a booby-trapped car as it was leaving Ain el-Hilweh.

A security authority told As Safire newspaper in remarks published on Friday that the driver was going to deliver thecar to a side that was seeking to ―use it against a very sensitive target.‖

Attempts to defuse the ―very complicated‖ bomb lasted long into the night, added As Safir.

17 May 2012Now LebanonCharbel Warns of Sunni-Shia StrifeInterior Minister Marwan Charbel on Thursday warned against Sunni-Shia strife in Lebanon, ―If the unrest in thenorthern city of Tripoli continues, it will be the starting point for the biggest strife in the history of Lebanon,‖ theNational News Agency also quoted Charbel as saying.

Asked about the issue of Islamist detainees arrested without charge, Charbel said that the trials of the Islamist

detainees would expedite as soon as the construction of court hall in the central prison of Roumieh is completed.

He also said that the construction is expected to finish in September.

Deadly clashes broke out on Saturday in Tripoli between Islamists and the army as young demonstrators,sympathizers of the revolt in Syria, tried to approach the offices of the pro-President Bashar al-Assad Syrian SocialNationalist Party.

The clashes followed the arrest of Lebanese citizen Shadi al-Mawlawi by the General Security at a social servicescenter that belongs to Finance Minister Mohammad Safadi. After his arrest, 100 young men blocked the northernand southern roads into Tripoli.

The ensuing sectarian clashes left nine people dead and some 50 wounded.

17 May 2012Al ManarSeven Fatah Al-Islam Members Head to Syria Al-Manar television station reported on Thursday that ―seven members from Fatah al-Islam left the Ain al-HilwehPalestinian refugee camp and headed to Syria.‖

The Hezbollah-backed station also said that the members of the radical Islamist group ―wrote their wills [andhanded them] to their relatives.‖



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Damascus blames the unrest on "armed terrorist groups" and has unleashed military operations against bordertowns and protest hubs.

Lebanon‘s political scene is split between supporters of Syrian President Bashar al - Assad‘s regime, led byHezbollah, and the pro-Western March 14 camp.

According to UN estimates, more than 9,000 people have been killed in violence across Syria since anti-regimeprotests broke out in 2011, while monitors put the number at more than 12,000, mostly civilians.

18 May 2012Nahar NetMilitary Court Rejects Al-Mawlawi’s Release Request The Military Tribunal rejected on Friday Islamist Shadi al-Mawlawi‘s request to be released from detention, therequest has been rejected by Military Examining Magistrate Nabil Wehbeh and Government Commissioner to theMilitary Court Judge Saqr Saqr.

A new session of investigations has been scheduled for Tuesday.

Al-Mawlawi‘s arrest on Saturday in the northern city of Tripoli by General Security agents had infuriated the city‘sIslamists and sparked deadly clashes that have left at least 12 people dead and more than 100 wounded.

His supporters have vowed to escalate the situation if he is not released.

Al-Mawlawi was arrested on charges of belonging to a terrorist organization, but his supporters say he was targetedbecause of his help for Syrian refugees fleeing to Lebanon.

18 May 2012Jerusalem PostIranian Revolutionary Guards to Hezbollah: Hands off IsraelAn Iranian Revolutionary Guards commander reportedly ordered Hezbollah not to attack Israel.

"Today, the Zionist regime is in total isolation and is facing a serious legitimacy crisis," Maj. Gen. QassemSuleimani, commander of the Revolutionary Guards' special Quds Force, is quoted as telling Hassan Nasrallah, thecommander of Lebanon's Hezbollah terrorist group.

"Any attack would depict them as victims and us as unjust aggressors, which would mobilize the public sympathyfor them," Suleimani is quoted as saying in remarks translated by Ali Alfoneh, an Iran expert at the AmericanEnterprise Institute, a conservative Washington-based think tank. "This would harm us."

Alfoneh, writing Wednesday on the American Enterprise Institute blog, says the report originally appeared this weekon the website of Botia News; a regional outlet affiliated with the Revolutionary Guards, and was picked up by othernews outlets affiliated with the Guards.

SYRIA (Top)



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18 May 2012Now LebanonLive Blog on Developments in Syria 13:49 Syrian forces on Friday arrested five chi ldren in Latakia. (S.N.N)

13:49 a number of anti-regime protests kicked off in different areas in Hama, including Qalaat al-Madiq and KafrZita. (S.N.N)

13:49 an anti-regime protest kicked off in Daraa's As-Sabil neighborhood. (S.N.N)

13:48 Anti-regime protests kicked off across Aleppo, including the city‘s Dar Ezza and Halab al -Jadeedaneighborhoods. (S.N.N)

13:43 an anti-regime protest started in Latakia‘s As-Saliba. (S.N.N)

13:43 An anti-regime protest started in Daraa‘s Al-Hara. (S.N.N)

13:43 an anti-regime protest started on Edleb‘s Maarat an-Naaman. (S.N.N)

13:40 two anti-regime protests kicked off in Asali near Damascus. (S.N.N)

13:38 Syrian forces are surrounding mosques in Daraa‘s Jassem preventing worshippers from leaving them.(S.N.N)

13:38 an anti-regime protest kicked off in Latakia‘s Jabla. (S.N.N)

13:38 an anti-regime protest kicked off in Daraa‘s Ebtae. (S.N.N)

13:38 an anti-regime protest started in the town of Samad outside Daraa. (S.N.N)

13:37 an anti-regime protest kicked off in Latakia‘s Al-Achrafieh neighborhood. (S.N.N)

13:34 Al-Jazeera is broadcasting live footage of an anti-regime protest in the Daraa town of Ghoueiran.

13:31 Syrian forces on Friday raided Aleppo‘s neighborhood of Al -Shaar . (S.N.N)

13:30 Syrian forces on Friday opened fire on protesters in Deir az-Zour‘s Abu Kamal. (S.N.N)

13:30 an anti-regime protest kicked off in Deir az-Zour. (S.N.N)

13:30 a number of anti-regime protests kicked off in Aleppo‘s neighborhoods including Al-Ferdaws and Bustan al-Qaser. (S.N.N)

13:30 Al-Jazeera TV is broadcasting live footage of an anti-regime protest in the town of Al-Harak in Daraa.

13:29 Syrian forces on Friday opened fire on protesters in Daraa‘s Sheikh Maskeen. (S.N.N)

13:29 Syrian forces on Friday raided Daraa‘s Jassem. (S.N.N)

13:29 an anti-regime protest kicked off in Edleb‘s Ariha . (S.N.N)



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13:26 two people were killed by security forces‘ gunfire in the city of Douma near Damascus; Al-Jazeera quotedactivists as saying.

13:25 Al-Arabiya TV is broadcasting a live anti-regime protest in Edleb.

13:24 an anti-regime protest started in Duma near Damascus. (S.N.N)

13:24 an anti-regime protest started in the Daraa town of Naima. (S.N.N)

13:23 Anti-regime protests started in Edleb‘s Jabal al-Zawiya. (S.N.N)

13:22 an anti-regime protest started in Damascus‘s Al-Maydan neighborhood. (S.N.N)

13:22 Syrian forces on Friday surrounded mosques in Aleppo‘s Marja neighborhood to prevent anti -regimeprotesters from taking to the streets. (S.N.N)

13:21 Heavy explosions rocked Hama‘s Tariq Halab neighborhood on Friday. (S.N.N)

13:18 an anti-regime protest kicked off in the Aleppo town of Dabeq. (S.N.N)

13:18 an anti-regime protest started in Aleppo‘s Hayyan. (S.N.N)

13:16 a number of anti-regime protests started in different areas in Aleppo, including Al-Sikari, Al-Atareb andSalaheddine neighborhoods. (S.N.N)

13:14 Anti-regime protests kicked off in Hasaka. (S.N.N)

13:12 an ant-regime protest kicked off in Aleppo‘s Manbij. (S.N.N)

13:12 an ant-regime protest kicked off in Al-Aridi neighborhood in Deir az-Zour. (S.N.N)

13:11 an ant-regime protest started in Aleppo's neighborhood of Seif ad-Dawla. (S.N.N)

13:11 an ant-regime protest started in Aleppo's Masaken Hanano . (S.N.N)

13:00 an anti-regime protest started in Aleppo‘s Kobani .(S.N.N)

13:00 an anti-regime protest kicked off in the city of Abu Kamal in Deir az-Zour. (S.N.N)

12:55 The Fatima Al-Zahrae Mosque in Hama was shelled on Friday. (S.N.N)

12:47 Syrian forces on Friday raided the Daraa town of Al-Sanamayn. (S.N.N)

12:44 Syrian forces on Friday opened fire on worshippers who were heading to a mosque in Daraa‘s Nemer village .(S.N.N)

12:32 Syria forces on Friday were deployed in Reqqa‘s streets to confront Friday‘s anti -regime protests. (S.N.N)

12:30 Activists said on Friday that a blast rocked the Tadamon district in Damascus, Al-Arabiya reported.



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12:26 an anti-regime protest kicked off in Aleppo's Masakin Hanano. (S.N.N)

12:23 an anti-regime protest kicked off in Aleppo‘s Marja neighborhood. (S.N.N)

12:19 Syrian forces present in the Damascus neighborhood of Jawber were reinforced on Friday. (S.N.N)

12:18 Syrian authorities have sentenced to death for "treason" an activist who was arrested in April and "brutallytortured," a Syrian human rights group said on Friday.

12:10 A YouTube video purportedly filmed on Friday in the Homs town of Rastan shows how the area is beingshelled.

12:00 a number of explosions rocked the Hama neighborhood of Al-Hamidiya. (S.N.N)

11:35 Syrian forces on Friday raided Al-Ramel al-Janoubi neighborhood of Latakia. (S.N.N)

11:23 six people have so far been killed in Syria on Thursday, activists told Al-Arabiya TV.

11:11 Syria forces received reinforcements on Friday in the city of Bab al-Hawa in Edleb. (S.N.N)

11:06 four people were killed by the Syrian army‘s shelling on the Homs town of Rastan, activists told Al -ArabiyaTV.

10:50 Syrian forces on Friday were deployed in the village of Enkhel in Daraa. (S.N.N)

10:45 Syrian forces on Friday were deployed in Daraa‘s Nemer village. (S.N.N)

10:38 Syrian forces on Friday opened fire on protesters in Aleppo; Al-Arabiya television quoted the LocalCoordination Committees as saying.

10:36 Syrian forces on Friday morning intensified the shelling targeting Homs‘ Rastan; Al-Arabiya television quotedthe Local Coordination Committees as saying.

10:32 Syrian forces have been carrying out arrest operations in the Daraa town of Sheikh Maskeen since Fridaymorning. (S.N.N)

10:15 Syrian anti-regime activists called for Friday protests under the slogan, "heroes of Aleppo University," insolidarity with students who demonstrated despite brutal repression against the university.

10:00 Syrian forces on Friday opened fire in Edleb‘s Ariha. (S.N.N)

8:30 MORNING LEADER: Syrian National Council chief Burhan Ghalioun said on Thursday he will step down toavert divisions within the opposition bloc, after activists on the ground accused him of monopolizing power.

8:00 Syrian forces on Friday shelled Edleb‘s area of Jabal al -Zawiya. (S.N.N)

8:00 Syrian forces on Friday shelled the Homs neighborhood of Al-Hamidiya. (S.N.N)

7:30 UN leader Ban Ki-moon said Thursday he believes Al-Qaeda committed a major bomb attack in Damascusthat left dozens dead, and that up to 10,000 people have now been killed in Syria.



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18 May 2012Al ArabiyaPalestinian Writer Salameh Kaileh Detained, Beaten, Taunted in Syria

(U) Palestinian writer Salameh Kaileh was hospitalized in Amman for bruises sustained during his detention in Syria. (Al Arabiya)

Syrian authorities deported Palestinian writer Salameh Kaileh this week to Jordan after three weeks of detentionand relentless torture and taunting over his anti-regime writings, the prominent writer told Al Arabiya lateWednesday. Security forces had stormed Kaileh‘s house on April 23.

―There was no violence at first. They took my computer, the laptop, USB storage devices and searched my files,‖he said. ―They interrogated me in a rude manner about leaflets they found at my house entitled al -Yasari (TheLeftist). I told them I had nothing to do with them.‖ ―They then took me to a security office. At first I didn‘t knowwhere I was exactly, but later I found out from other detainees that it was an air force intelligence office.

―The authorities interrogated me. The main question they asked me was where did I print the leaflets? But I did notprint them.‖ Kaileh said a slogan in the leaflet which read: ―For Palestine to be free, Syria‘s regime has to fall,‖ waswhat the authorities feared most. ―It was their anger at this line, more than anything, which resulted in me beingbadly beaten.‖ ―When I said that I had nothing to do with the leaflets, I was hit and kicked so much that my legscould have been broken. I was hit with a wide wire cable so much that I fell on the ground. He [an officer] swore atme repeatedly. He‘d ask the same question and I‘d give the same answer; that I have nothing to do with theleaflets.‖ Kaileh, 57, who holds a Jordanian passport, said he was hospitalized in Amman for bruises sustainedduring his detention.

The Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights on Tuesday distributed several photographs showing largebruises and burns on Kaileh‘s arms and legs. Kaileh, born in Birzeit, West Bank, is a well -known leftist who haswritten books on subjects ranging from Marxism to Arab nationalism. He was imprisoned by the Syrian governmentin the 1990s for eight years.

Kaileh said the security officers would mock him and curse Palestinians. ―Of course there then was a lot of talk from

them about how ‗the situation in Syria is more stable than all surrounding areas in the region‘ and that I‘m aPalestinian who is ‗playing with the events in Syria,‘ while also cursing Palestinians.‖ ―What I experienced was onlya fraction of what the other detainees, with whom I was imprisoned, were going through. They were beinghorrifically tortured,‖ Kaileh said. According to the Observatory, more than 12,000 people, the majority of themcivilians, have died since the uprising against the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad began on March 15,2011, and that around 25,000 are in detention, AFP news agency reported.



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Human rights organizations have denounced the ―systematic torture‖ of detainees in Syria. Amnesty Internationalhas said in a report based on the testimony of refugees now living in Jordan that ―the extent of torture and abuse inSyria has reached a level not seen in years, and which evokes the dark era of the 1970s and 1980s.‖

18 May 2012Ahram onlineSyrians Urged to Rally in Support of Students

Unclassified

Syrian activists call for Friday protests following the brutal repression against students who demonstrated oncampus demanding the fall of President Bashar Al-Assad

Syrian anti-regime activists called for Friday protests under the slogan, "heroes of Aleppo University", in solidaritywith students who demonstrated despite brutal repression against the university.

Students in the northern city demonstrated on campus demanding the fall of Bashar Al-Assad's regime on

Thursday as UN observers visited to oversee a ceasefire, largely ignored for a month, according to activists.

"Thousands of students from various faculties came out of their classes when the UN observers arrived andshouted slogans calling for the fall of the regime," activist Mohammed Halabi told AFP in Beirut.

They "also called for the arming of the (rebel) Syrian Free Army," he said in a telephone call.

A video released by activists shows a large number of students surrounding a UN-marked vehicle insulting Assadand chanting: "The people want the fall of the regime."

Another video shows youths sitting in the back of a vehicle driven by a UN observer and filming security forcesmembers beating students brutally with truncheons.

Having taken the observer to witness the scene, the youths implored him to leave when a man in civilian clothesapproaches the vehicle and blocks the view of the student filming.

18 May 2012Al JazeeraUN Probes 'Arms Sales from N Korea to Syria'



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(U) The panel said it could not prove N Korea continued to maintain missile co-operation with Iran and Syria [Reuters]

A UN panel of experts that monitors compliance with sanctions on North Korea is investigating reports of possible

weapons-related shipments by Pyongyang to Syria and Myanmar, the panel said in a confidential report.

"The DPRK (North Korea) continues actively to defy the measures in the [UN sanctions] resolutions," the panel saidin the report seen exclusively by the Reuters news agency on Thursday.

"Member states did not report to the committee any violations involving transfer of nuclear, other [weapons ofmass-destruction]-related or ballistic missile items," it said in the report submitted to the UN Security Council'sNorth Korea sanctions committee earlier this week.

"But they did report several other violations including illicit sales of arms and related materiel and luxury goods."

China, which is named in the report as a transit hub for illicit North Korean arms-related breaches, has prevented

the 15-nation Security Council from publishing past reports and may do so with the latest one, UN envoys toldReuters.

"Although the [sanctions] have not caused the DPRK to halt its banned activities, they appear to have slowed themand made illicit transactions significantly more difficult and expensive," the panel's report said.

'Destined for Syria'

One of the cases involving suspected illicit arms trade with Syria was reported to the council's sanctions committeelast month.

"In April 2012, France reported to the committee that it had inspected and seized in November 2010 an illicitshipment of arms-related materiel originating from the DPRK and destined for Syria," the report said.

The shipment, which was on board the ship M/V San Francisco Bridge, was said to contain "copper bars andplates".

"However, France's inspection of the cargo revealed that it contained brass discs and copper rods used tomanufacture artillery munitions [pellets and rods for crimping cartridges and driving bands] and aluminum alloytubes usable for making rockets," the panel said.

Another case cited in the report involved a 2007 shipment of propellant usable for Scud missiles and other itemsthat could be used for ballistic missiles.



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The panel had referred to it in last year's report but added details about a Syria connection and confirmed that ithad been transported via China.

"This shipment originated in the DPRK, was trans-shipped in Dalian (China), and Port Kelang (Malaysia), andtransited through other ports," the report said. "It was en route to Latakia, Syria".

Although both shipments mentioned in the report were made before the Syrian government launched its assault onopposition demonstrators in March 2011, diplomats said they were worrying because it showed the kinds of itemsDamascus had been trying to add to its arsenal - and the aid it received from North Korea and China.

The panel said it could not prove North Korea continued to maintain ballistic missile co-operation with Iran, Syriaand other countries, "but notes that it would be consistent with reports of the DPRK's long history of missile co-operation with these countries and with the panel's observations".

'Prohibited co-operation'

Ten thousand rolls of tobacco, 12 bottles of Sake, and some second-hand Mercedes Benz cars are among thelatest reported breaches by North Korea of the luxury goods ban.

"Overall implementation of the sanctions leaves much to be desired"

- UN panel of experts

UN sanctions forbid North Korea from selling arms and related technology as well as from buying or selling nuclearand missile technology.

The panel said it was looking at the possibility North Korea has a deal with Myanmar on conventional weapons co-

operation in violation of Security Council sanctions passed in 2006 and 2009 after Pyongyang's nuclear test inthose years.

The report said the panel took note of statements by the new president of the former Burma that Myanmar does not"have nuclear or weapons co-operation with the DPRK".

There have been media reports that Myanmar's previously ruling generals, who recently ceded power to a civilian-led government, had been exploring nuclear-weapons co-operation with North Korea. Myanmar has always deniedsuch reports.

The panel said it took note of those denials but expressed concern about the possibility of "other prohibited co-operation" between Myanmar and North Korea.

It referred to a recent statement by the speaker of Myanmar's new parliament, Thura Shwe Mann, who, accordingto the panel, announced he had signed a memorandum of understanding with Pyongyang during a 2008 visit toNorth Korea.

"It was not on nuclear co-operation as is being alleged," the panel quoted the speaker as saying. "We studied theirair defence system, weapons factories, aircraft and ships.

"Their armed forces are quite strong, so we just agreed to co-operate with them if necessary".

Nuclear test 'planned'



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The panel said Shwe Mann may have visited a ballistic missile factory in North Korea and added that it wasconcerned the memorandum of understanding violated UN sanctions.On Thursday, a US institute said Pyongyang had resumed construction work on an experimental light water reactor

The US and its allies are worried that North Korea is planning a third nuclear test after its recent failed missilelaunch.

They are also concerned that Pyongyang is expanding its uranium enrichment programme in addition to itsplutonium reprocessing work that has yielded atom bomb fuel.

High-grade enriched uranium, like plutonium, can be used as fuel for a nuclear weapon.

But the UN panel said it had seen no evidence that North Korea had been attempting to import banned items likemerging steel and high-strength aluminum tubes, which it would need to expand its enrichment centrifugeprogramme.

"Since May 2011, no attempts by the DPRK to import these have been reported to the committee or brought to theattention of the panel," the report said.

"It remains unclear whether this is because the DPRK has succeeded in doing so undetected, or stockpiled theseitems before sanctions were introduced, or is not after all trying to procure them," the panel said.

The panel said it did not agree with suggestions that North Korea could produce high-strength merging steel,adding that even if it could do so, it would likely not be able to produce it with the quality needed for enrichmentcentrifuges.

The panel also took UN member states to task for lax application of the punitive measures, saying "overall

implementation of the sanctions leaves much to be desired".

17 May 2012Al ArabiyaSyrian Opposition Leader Burhan Ghalioun Resigns amid Mounting Criticism

(U) Syrian National Council President Burhan Ghalioun says he is ready to quit. (Reuters)

The head of Syria‘s most-recognized opposition bloc, Burhan Ghalioun, has announced that he is stepping down asleader of the Syrian National Council (SNC) after mounting criticism of his leadership. ―I am announcing myresignation as head of the Council. I call on the Syrian opposition to break the cycle of conflicts and preserve unity,‖



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Ghalioun told Al Arabiya. ―I declare my resignation as soon as a replacement is found through elections or consensus,‖ Ghalioun added.

On Tuesday, Ghalioun was reelected head of the exiled coalition in the face of opposition by some members of thesecretariat and rules that require the president‘s rotation every three months.

Opposition activists had spoken of the ―deteriorating situation in the SNC‖ when the Local Coordination Committees(LCC), a network of activists on the ground in Syria, threatened on Thursday to pull out of opposition bloc theSyrian National Council over its ―monopolization‖ of power.

―The deteriorating situation in the SNC is an impetus for us to take actions, which could begin with a freeze (of LCCmembership in the SNC) and end with a withdrawal if errors are not solved and demands for reform go unmet,‖ theLCC said in a statement.

These ―errors‖ were ―a total absence of consensus between the SNC‘s vision and that of the revolutionaries‖; ―amarginalization of most (LCC) representatives‖; and ―a monopolization of decision-making by influential members ofthe executive bureau.‖

The SNC was particularly criticized for not sufficiently coordinating with activists on the ground, and for the stronginfluence wielded by Syrian Muslim Brotherhood representatives.

Most opposition forces agreed in March, after laborious negotiations, that the SNC would be the ―formalrepresentative‖ of the Syrian people, despite calls for its restructuring.

The move came in response to calls from the international community that the Syrian opposition must unify itsranks.

Ghalioun‘s reelection mandate was intended to last three months. His reappointment came after a 72 hour long -drawn-out and hardly-fought meeting of the representatives of the major SNC forces in a hotel in the center ofRome.

Ghalioun, who is a professor and lives in Paris, was not new to Syrian uprisings; in fact he returned to the scene in2011 picking up from where he left off.

Ten years ago, he participated in the Damascus Spring, a period of intense political debate after the death ofPresident Hafez al-Assad, in June 2000, and which continued to some degree until autumn 2001, when most of theactivities associated with it were suppressed by the government.

18 May 2012

Al ArabiyaBodies Piling up in Syria amid no Alternative to Annan’s Plan Bodies are piling up in Syria while President Bashar al-Assad sits entrenched in his palace, but the internationalcommunity appears lacking no alternative to a U.N. observer mission monitoring the implementation of a non-existent ceasefire.

The town of Rastan, north of the city of Homs, came under heavy shelling by regime forces, which tried to breakthrough the defensive lines set up by the armed opposition. The dozens of mortar shells landing on residentialareas killed eight people on Friday morning, according to an initial tally by local activists.



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In Damascus, an explosion accompanied by heavy gunfire was heard in the district of Tadamun, according to theSyrian Revolution Council. It was not immediately known if there were any victims.

Anti-regime activists have called for nationwide protests on Friday in support of students in Aleppo in solidarity withstudents in the northern city who demonstrated there the day before despite brutal repression in the presence ofU.N. military observers.

Growing suspicions of an al-Qaeda presence in Syria, meanwhile, further complicated matters for the fragmentedopposition, which has repeatedly refuted any links to the Islamist organization.

17 May 2012ReutersExclusive: U.N. Probes Possible North Korea Arms Trade with Syria, MyanmarBy Louis Charbonneau and Michelle Nichols

A U.N. panel of experts that monitors compliance with sanctions on North Korea is investigating reports of possibleweapons-related deals between Pyongyang and Syria and Myanmar, the panel said in a confidential report seen byReuters on Thursday.

"The DPRK (North Korea) continues actively to defy the measures in the (U.N. sanctions) resolutions," the panelsaid in the report, which it submitted to the U.N. Security Council's North Korea sanctions committee earlier thisweek.

"Member states did not report to the committee any violations involving transfer of nuclear, other (weapons ofmass-destruction)-related or ballistic missile items," it said. "But they did report several other violations includingillicit sales of arms and related materiel and luxury goods."

U.N. panel of experts' sanctions reports are highly sensitive. China, which is named in the report as a transit hub forillicit North Korean arms-related breaches, has prevented the 15-nation Security Council from publishing pastreports and may do so with the latest one, U.N. envoys have told Reuters.

"Although the (sanctions) have not caused the DPRK to halt its banned activities, they appear to have slowed themand made illicit transactions significantly more difficult and expensive," the panel's report said.

One of the cases involving suspected illicit arms trade with Syria was reported to the council's sanctions committeelast month.

"In April 2012, France reported to the committee that it had inspected and seized in November 2010 an illicitshipment of arms-related materiel originating from the DPRK and destined for Syria," the report said.

The shipment, which was on board the ship M/V San Francisco Bridge, was said to be containing "copper bars andplates."

"However, France's inspection of the cargo revealed that it contained brass discs and copper rods used tomanufacture artillery munitions (pellets and rods for crimping cartridges and driving bands) and aluminum alloytubes usable for making rockets," the panel said.



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Another case cited in the report involved a 2007 shipment of propellant usable for SCUD missiles and other itemsthat could be used for ballistic missiles. The panel had referred to it in last year's report but added details about aSyria connection and confirmed that it had been transported via China.

"This shipment originated in the DPRK, was trans-shipped in Dalian (China), and Port Kelang (Malaysia), andtransited through other ports," the report said. "It was en route to Latakia, Syria."

Although both shipments mentioned in the report were made before the Syrian government launched its assault onopposition demonstrators in March 2011, diplomats said they were worrying because it showed the kinds of itemsDamascus had been trying to add to its arsenal - and the aid it received from North Korea and China.

The panel said it could not prove North Korea continued to maintain ballistic missile cooperation with Iran, Syriaand other countries, "but notes that it would be consistent with reports of the DPRK's long history of missilecooperation with these countries and with the panel's observations."

WEAPONS COOPERATION WITH MYANMAR?

Ten thousand rolls of tobacco, 12 bottles of Sake, and some second-hand Mercedes Benz cars are among thelatest reported breaches by North Korea of the luxury goods ban.

The panel said it was looking at the possibility North Korea has a deal with Myanmar on conventional weaponscooperation in violation of Security Council sanctions passed in 2006 and 2009 after Pyongyang's nuclear test inthose years.

The report said the panel took note of statements by the new president of the former Burma that Myanmar does not"have nuclear or weapons cooperation with the DPRK."

There have been media reports that Myanmar's previously ruling generals, who recently ceded power to a civilian-led government, had been exploring nuclear-weapons cooperation with North Korea. Myanmar has always deniedsuch reports.

The panel said it took note of those denials but expressed concern about the possibility of "other prohibitedcooperation" between Myanmar and North Korea.

It referred to a recent statement by the speaker of Myanmar's new parliament, Thura Shwe Mann, who, accordingto the panel, announced he had signed a memorandum of understanding with Pyongyang during a 2008 visit toNorth Korea.

"It was not on nuclear cooperation as is being alleged," the panel quoted the speaker as saying. "We studied theirair defense system, weapons factories, aircraft and ships. Their armed forces are quite strong, so we just agreed to

cooperate with them if necessary."

The panel said Shwe Mann may have visited a ballistic missile factory in North Korea and added that it wasconcerned the memorandum of understanding violated U.N. sanctions, which forbid North Korea from selling armsand related technology as well as from buying or selling nuclear and missile technology.

The United States and its allies are worried that North Korea is planning a third nuclear test after its recent failedmissile launch. They are also concerned that Pyongyang is expanding its uranium enrichment program in additionto its plutonium reprocessing work that has yielded atom bomb fuel.



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High-grade enriched uranium, like plutonium, can be used as fuel for a nuclear weapon.

But the U.N. panel said it had seen no evidence that North Korea had been attempting to import banned items likemanaging steel and high-strength aluminum tubes, which it would need to expand its enrichment centrifugeprogram.

"Since May 2011, no attempts by the DPRK to import these have been reported to the committee or brought to theattention of the panel," the report said.

"It remains unclear whether this is because the DPRK has succeeded in doing so undetected, or stockpiled theseitems before sanctions were introduced, or is not after all trying to procure them," the panel said.

The panel said it did not agree with suggestions that North Korea could produce high-strength managing steel,adding that even if it could do so, it would likely not be able to produce it with the quality needed for enrichmentcentrifuges.

The panel also took U.N. member states to task for lax application of the punitive measures, saying "overallimplementation of the sanctions leaves much to be desired."

REGIONAL EDITORIALS (Top)

18 May 2012Al Sharaq Al AwsatIran’s Triple Mistakes in Syria, Iraq and BahrainBy Amir Taheri

Fearing isolation as a new geopolitical landscape takes shape in the Middle East; the Khomeini‘s regime is stillclinging to three forlorn hopes.

The first is to save the Baathist regime in Damascus even if that means accepting a financial burden that Iran‘scrippled economy could ill afford.

The second is to prevent the re-emergence of Iraq as a viable state and a potential rival. The third is to transformthe socio-political crisis in Bahrain into a power grab for itself.

In Syria, the mullahs‘ strategy is to portray the uprising as a Western co nspiracy to punish a regime supposed to bepart of ―the resistance‖. The claim is that the United States and its allies wish to exclude actual or potentiallyunfriendly powers such as Iran, Russia and China from the region.

The mullahs hope to delay the fall of the Assad regime so that they have more time to confirm their foothold insouthern Iraq, their second hope.

Emboldened by the victory of their Syrian brethren, the people of Iraq might decide that their country is potentiallystrong enough to avoid partial or total domination by Iran.

Tehran‘s plan for Iraq is to encourage the creation of a Shi‘ite enclave in the south in the name of federalism. Thatwould enable Tehran to dominate the Shi‘ite theological centre in Najaf thus pre-empting a possible challenge tothe Khomeini‘s ideology.



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It is clear that Ali Khamenei, the ―Supreme Guide‖ of the Khomeini‘s regime, lacks the qualifications to be marketedas a religious leader for Iraqi Shi‘ite. This is why Iranian security services are working on a sce nario under which amid-ranking mullah is cast in the role of ayatollah and marja al-taqlid (source of emulation) for Iraqi Shi‘ites.

The mullah in question is Mahmoud Shahroudi who has been on the payroll of the Iranian government for threedecades. Initially, he was member of a guerrilla group created by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) tofight Saddam Hussein. He then started wearing a mullah‘s outfit and transformed himself into a cleric. Currently, heheads an advisory committee attached to Khamenei‘s office.

While Tehran is trying to annex Syria with money and arms shipments to the Assad regime, the plan for Iraq isdomination through a religious network backed by paramilitary groups controlled by the IRGC.

The plan for Bahrain is, in a sense, more straightforward because it aims at the annexation of the archipelago onthe basis of Iran‘s historic claims.

In an editorial last Tuesday, the daily Kayhan, published by Khamenei‘s office, had a front page banner headlineasserting that ―Bahrain Is A Piece of Iran‘s Body‖. The editorial claimed, ―A majority of the people of Bahrain regardBahrain as part of Iran.... It should return to its original homeland which is Iran.‖

In an earlier article, the newspaper recalled the circumstances in 1970 under which Bahrain ceased to be a Britishprotectorate to become an independent state.

In recent weeks, convening supposedly academic conferences to ―prove‖ that Bahrain is part of Iran has becomefashionable in Iranian seminaries. According to Khomeini ‘s folklore the Shah‘s decision to accept a United Nations‘―assessment mission‖ to decide the fate of Bahrain had been one of his ―greatest treasons‖.

One of Khomeini‘s first acts after seizing power in 1979 was to create the so -called Bahrain Liberation Army. The

group tried to invade Bahrain with a few boats but was stopped by the Iranian navy that was still controlled byPrime Minister Mehdi Bazargan‘s government. With the seizure of the US embassy in Tehran in November 1979 by―students‖ and the Iraqi invasion of Iran in September 1980 the idea of conquering Bahrain was put on thebackburner.

Tehran‘s intervention in Syria, Iraq and Bahrain has had a doubly negative effect.

It Syria, Iranian intervention has increased the human cost of a transition that seems inevitable. That interventionhas given what is essentially a domestic struggle for power an external dimension that the Syrian people cannotcontrol.

In Iraq, Iranian intervention has prevented the consolidation of a national consensus that had taken shape after thefall of the Baathist regime in 2003 and the bloody struggles of 2004-2009. Iraq is bound to end up finding its way

and rebuilding the structures of a state. However, the cost of doing that has been increased by Iranian intervention.Similarly in Bahrain, it is unlikely that a majority of Bahrainis, who are seeking greater reforms and better powersharing, would want to live under Walayat al-Faqih (rule by mullah). Nor would they wish to sacrifice their nationalinterests at the altar of a regime whose fate is under question in Iran itself.

Khamenei‘s triple gamble in Syria, Iraq and Bahrain also has a negative effect on Iran‘s own interests as a nationstate.



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As a nation, as a people, Iran has no interest in enabling the Assad regime to kill the Syrians in their own cities andvillages. Nor could Iran reap any benefit from sowing dissension and violence in Iraq and preventing a nationalconsensus in Bahrain.

Once again, in these three important cases, the interests of Iran as a nation-state do not coincide with those of Iranas a vehicle for the Khomeini‘s ideology.

17 May 2012Dar al HayatThe Gulf Union and the Iranian TrapZuheir Kseibati

The swapping of the roles between the symbols, wings and tools of the authority in Iran in a harmonious escalationagainst the project of union between the Arab Gulf states, topples the theory related to President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad‘s erring away from the higher Iranian policy determined by Guide Ali Khamenei. The parliamentaryelections, which addressed a strong blow to the president‘s supporters, cost Ahmadinejad the foreign policytampering card, which has used for a long time either by carrying out outbidding over the Guide‘s stringency or byprovoking crises.

This card is now without value. Moreover, the president relinquished his dream after he had claimed on severaloccasions that he wished to erase Israel from the map, thus angering the West and obstructing – via the escalationat the level of the nuclear file – the negotiations with the major states.

And as soon as the door was reopened before negotiations over the file, Ahmadinejad revived the crisis of theoccupation of the three Emirati islands, i.e. the Greater Tunb, Lesser Tunb and Abu Musa islands. However, hisvisit to Abu Musa and his defiance of the Gulf States this time around, did not aim at serving internal political goals,

while the Revolutionary Guard‘s bullying of the United Arab Emirates and all those who reject the Persian character of the Gulf, gave the impression that the Guide was acceptant of the course of escalation and confrontation.

And as soon as the chapter of the Gulf union was opened (especially during the Riyadh summit last Monday), Iranmoved to the second stage of the political confrontation with the GCC countries which were always addressed byTehran with a superior and directing tone, applying on the regional level the same method it used throughout theMiddle East – thus granting certificates of good conduct to the ―nationals‖ and accusing all those wh o do not belongto them of treason.

A few hours after the Bahraini Foreign Ministry summoned the Iranian chargé d‘affaires in Manama to protestagainst what was said at the Shura Council (parliament) in Tehran - especially by its Speaker Ali Larijani - theIslamic Propagation Coordination Council announced the staging of crowded protests tomorrow throughout Iranagainst the Gulf union project between the GCC member states, one which the Iranian wings are claiming is an

attempt to annex Bahrain to Saudi Arabia. As to the Coordination Council‘s selection of provocative terms to call for the demonstrations, it blocks the way before any calm and proves that Iran has relinquished the gray area throughwhich it insisted for years on the extension of the hand to the neighbors on the media level, while supplyingorganizations, parties and groups with financial and military aid under the cover of protecting the Shiites and thepeople‘s rights.

Clearly, the Iranian command could not forget the blow seen in the dispatch of troops from the Peninsula ShieldForce to Bahrain to stop the expansion of the turmoil in the country last year. And while it is not new that signals arepointing to an Iranian wish or instigation which fueled the protests in that Kingdom once again – maybe to alleviatethe Arab pressures on Damascus and its suppression of the oppositionists by use of violence – Tehran cannot



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revamp or elude what was stated by Larijani. Indeed, the fact that he considered the Gulf union option to be a―Bedouin behavior‖ is not a mere slip of the tongue, but rather the public embodiment of an underlying wish tobelittle the others out of arrogance and under the illusion of the monopolization of urbanism!

Once again, one should recall the Iranian dichotomy in defending what Tehran dubs the rights of the Shiites inBahrain, the classification of the oppositionists in Syria as being terrorists, the instigation against Gulf authorities,the defense of the Syrian regime and the use of the Houthi‘ card in Yemen under the h eadline of their legitimatedemands, while Tehran‘s record with its oppositionists is known.

Today, while confrontation in the Gulf is nearing the peak, Iran is disregarding the rejection of its threats by SaudiForeign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal and his call for the settlement of the issue of the Emirati islands as acondition for normalization with the GCC states, and unleashing the demands to ―restore the Bahraini province‖ atthe Shura Council. However, it is unlikely that the Gulf states will succumb to the conditions of the rowdy neighborand relinquish the union plan, even if its birth were to be a few months late. It would be naïve to assume that theGCC will fall in an Iranian trap trying to trigger war, as soon as the nuclear program deal with the West is sealed,knowing that Tehran‘s optimism toward this deal is provoking suspicions among the Gulf populations.

Hence, some still ask the difficult question: If Khamenei wants to play a role in the redrafting of the political map,what price would satisfy him in exchange for the low-enriched uranium and the taming of the regime in Damascus?

17 May 2012Al ArabiyaIran Attack Decision Nears, Israeli Elite Locks Down Michael Stott

A private door opens from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu‘s office in central Jerusalem directly into a

long, modestly furnished, half-paneled room decorated with modern paintings by Israeli artists and a copy ofIsrael‘s 1948 declaration of independence.

It contains little more than a long wooden table, brown leather chairs and a single old-fashioned white projectorscreen. This inner sanctum at the end of a corridor between Netanyahu‘s private room and the office of his topmilitary adviser, is where one of the decade‘s most momentous military decisions c ould soon be taken: to launch anIsraeli attack on Iran‘s nuclear program.

Time for that decision is fast running out and the mood in Jerusalem is hardening. Iran continues to enrich uraniumin defiance of international pressure, saying it needs the fuel for its civilian nuclear program.

The West is convinced that Tehran‘s real objective is to build an atomic bomb - something which the Jewish statewill never accept because its leaders consider a nuclear armed-Iran a threat to its very existence. Adding to the

international pressure, U.S. ambassador to Israel Daniel Shapiro said this week American military plans to strikeIran were ―ready‖ and the option was ―fully available.‖ The central role Iran plays in Netanyahu‘s deliberations isreflected in the huge map of the Middle East hanging by the door of his office.

Israel lies on one edge, with Iran taking pride of place in the center. Experts say that within a few months, much ofIran‘s nuclear program will have been moved deep underground beneath the F ordow mountain, making asuccessful military strike much more difficult. As the deadline for a decision draws nearer, the publicpronouncements of Israel‘s top officials and military have changed.



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After hawkish warnings about a possible strike earlier this year, their language of late has been more guarded andclues to their intentions more difficult to discern. ―The top of the government has gone into lockdown,‖ one officialsaid. ―Nobody is saying anything publicly. That in itself tells you a lot about where things stand.‖ Last weekNetanyahu pulled off a spectacular political surprise, creating a coalition of national unity and delaying electionswhich everyone believed were inevitable.

The maneuver also led to speculation that the Israeli leader wanted a broad, strong government to lead a militarycampaign. The inclusion of the Iranian-born former Israeli chief of staff and veteran soldier, Gen. Shaul Mofaz, inthe coalition, fuelled that speculation even though both Mofaz and Netanyahu deny that Iran was mentioned in thecoalition negotiations. ―I think they have made a decision to attack,‖ said one senior Israeli figure with close ties tothe leadership. ―It is going to happen.

The window of opportunity is before the U.S. presidential election in November. This way they will bounce the Americans into supporting them.‖ Those close to Netanyahu are more cautious, saying no assumptions should bemade about an attack on Iran an attack with such potentially devastating consequences across the volatile MiddleEast that Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas even went so far as to predict in an interview with Reuters lastweek that it would be ―the end of the world.

‖ Israelis particularly fear retaliation from Iran‘s proxy militias - the Hezbollah guerrillas in southern Lebanon and theHamas fighters in the Gaza Strip. Both are believed to possess large arsenals of rockets which could hit majorIsraeli towns and cities.

Hezbollah‘s deputy leader Sheikh Naim Qassem told Reuters in February that an Israeli a ttack on Iran would setthe whole Middle East ablaze ―with no limit to the fires‖. ―Gone are the days when Israel decides to strike, and thepeople are silent,‖ he said. The Israeli Prime Minister and his key allies repeat for public consumption the mantra that economic sanctions against Iran must be given time to work and that now is not the time to speak aboutmilitary options.

Top officials explain the new coalition on purely domestic grounds, saying it was needed to tackle the thorny anddivisive issue of pressing Orthodox Jews into military service - in other words, that its formation has much more todo with the agenda inside Israel than abroad. Diplomats are divided.

―I think the Iran thing is a red herring,‖ said one senior Western envoy. ―This is 98 percent about domestic politics.‖Others are less convinced. Mofaz himself refuses to speak about military action against Iran, even in thetheoretical. A military veteran with almost 40 years‘ operational experience, whose office in the Israeli parliament displays aposter of Israeli warplanes flying low over the Auschwitz concentration camp; he scoffs at the idea that his Iraniandescent gives him special influence on an Iran attack decision.

He derides the idea any serious official in the know would talk to visiting journalists about such a sensitive military

subject. But behind the carefully evasive language of top officials, basic facts are clear.

Time is running out. Iran‘s nuclear program - regarded by Netanyahu as an existential threat to the state of Israelwill soon be buried deep enough underground to render an Israeli attack impossible. The Jewish state‘s options arenarrowing. ―I think they‘ve gone into lockdown mode now,‖ the senior Western diplomat said.

―Whatever happens next, whatever they decide, we will not find out until it happens.‖ There are indeed those whosee in Israeli posturing over Iran only bluff intended to press world powers into harsher sanctions and avoid war.Some military experts openly doubt how much damage Israel could inflict. The risk of a fiasco is big.



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Perhaps the strongest clue as to Israel‘s real intentions is to be found in Netanyahu‘s private office, behind hisdesk. Officials say the Israeli premier was strongly influenced by his father, who died last month at the age of 102.Benzion Netanyahu was a distinguished scholar of Jewish history and his strong sense of the past lives on inBenjamin, who laments to visitors that ―most people‘s sense of history goes back to breakfast time‖. On a shelf behind Netanyahu‘s desk, along with pictures of his family, is a photograph of Winston Churchill. Netanyahuadmires the British wartime premier because he saw the true dangers posed by Nazi Germany to the world at atime when many other politicians argued for appeasing Hitler.

The parallels with modern-day Iran are obvious and Netanyahu is explicit about the dangers he believes are posedby militant Islam: as he puts it, it‘s convulsive power, its cult of death and its ideological zeal. But Churchill, althougheloquent on the dangers posed by the rise of Nazi Germany during the 1930s, ultimately failed to prevent Hitler‘sascent to power, the world war he unleashed or the Holocaust in which six million Jews were murdered.Netanyahu, those who know him say, is determined to avoid going down in history as the man who did not shirk hisopportunity to stop Iran going nuclear.

18 May 2012Al Masry Al YoumIt is all Political when it Comes to ShariaRadwa Elsaman

The issue of requiring the principles of Islamic Sharia to be the main, and sometimes the sole, source of legislationin Egypt arose immediately after the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces suspended the 1971 constitution. Thisissue is expected to surface again by the time the new constitution is drafted. I will examine the ramifications of thisinsistence on making Sharia the main source of legislation on Egypt‘s political arena.

One camp, mainly composed of secularists and non-Muslims, claims that adopting Sharia as the major source of

law is discriminatory and ignores religious minorities. It seems that this group‘s main concern is that the Islamicparties, which already have a strong presence in the Egyptian political arena, will impose their own interpretation ofSharia, particularly infringing on minority rights, women‘s rights, and advocating a firm application of Islamiccriminal penalties (hudud) and Islamic commercial and financial rules such as Islamic banking. A fair and neutralevaluation of this attitude from a scholarly point of view finds this fear to be deficient. This is particularly truebecause the absence of a provision establishing Sharia as a source of law does not guarantee religious equality or

justice. Human rights violations are mainly committed by authoritarian or semi-authoritarian regimes for politicalreasons and do not relate to Sharia in and of itself.

On the other hand, Islamists and their supporters do seek to reaffirm that Sharia is the main source of legislation,and some of them are trying to elevate it to be the sole source of legislation. Islamists are in fact trying to codify thatEgypt is an Islamic country, and to guarantee a role for Sharia in the workings of the Egyptian state. To support thisargument, Islamists suggest that that since the 19th century, the Egyptian legal system has been Westernized to

reflect European rather than Islamic legal norms. This point of view is also deficient. Merely stating that Sharia isthe source of legislation is neither a guarantee of the Islamic identity of the country nor does it assure the respect ofthe rule of law. The same provision, which stipulated that Sharia is the source of legislation, existed duringMubarak‘s era, an era that witnessed a notable absence of the rule of law and grave breaches of human rights.

Accordingly, the dilemma does not seem to be over adopting Sharia as a source of law, but rather over whichinterpretation will prevail when it comes to reading substantive legislation in light of the constitutional provisions ofIslamic law. What supports this analysis is the fact that although the majority of the fifty Muslim countries in theOrganization of the Islamic Conference, which represents the collective voice of the Muslim world, do considerSharia as the main source (or at least one source) of legislation , the legal impact of Sharia on a country‘s national



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law varies depending on the interpretation of Islamic law and the political attitude of the governing regime. Forinstance, some countries such as Yemen, Algeria, and Jordan establish Sharia as the principal source of theirlegislation, while the religion of the state does not have a significant impact on the functioning of public institutions.

From a legal point of view, the establishment of Sharia as the main source of legislation does not necessarily posea problem for creating a democratic legal system — it‘s the politicization of Sharia that serves as an obstacle to thissame process. The threat of the politicization of Sharia arises during the stages of drafting and interpreting laws.

Though Islam has a number of fixed principles, Islamic law is rather malleable if compared to other legal systems.The Islamic legal system developed extra-textual legal principles that can provide a basis for a modernizingprocess of legal reform. Examples include qias (analogy), istihsan (juristic approval of certain rules), sadd al-dharai(blocking the lawful means to an unlawful end), Itihad (legal reasoning), and maslaha (public interest). Competentparliamentarians can use these various methodologies that place the public interest as a priority, along with theguidance of competent Islamic jurisprudence, to establish efficient forms of modern constitutional, commercial, andother legal theories. Hence, the body of Sharia does not pose a threat to the process of democratic legal reformunless its interpretation is politicized to serve the end goals of a dominating political party.

In addition, the effect of Sharia as a source of law lies in the hands of the body with the power to interpret theconstitution. Since the Supreme Constitutional Court is the sole competent body to interpret constitutionalprovisions, it plays a crucial role in interpreting any such provision that considers Sharia the main source oflegislation. Because the president appoints the constitut ional court‘s judges, there is a possibility that the courtcould be used to the advantage of the political party that dominates this executive position. In essence, the fact thatMubarak opposed Islamic legal reform explains why the court‘s interpretation of Sharia was in line, to some extent,with the Western modern codes. The question that arises here is whether an Islamist-dominated political climatewould change the court‘s approach to interpreting Sharia. The answer depends on the degree of independence ofthe judicial and legislative branches form the executive branch.

In summary, there is no straight answer to the question of whether adopting Sharia as a source of law would affectthe process of democratic legal reform. The question is neither a purely legal nor religious one; it is mainly political.The role of Sharia in the post-revolutionary Egypt depends on which political group would win the upper hand in thecurrent political sphere, and accordingly impose their own interpretation of Islamic law.

17 May 2012UPISyrian: Rebels Getting Outside HelpThe seizure of a ship off Lebanon carrying arms reportedly destined for rebels in Syria underlines how the 14-month-old conflict is being increasingly militarized.



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(U) Demonstrators gather during a protest against Syria's President Bashar al-Assad in Ebredl near Damascus in Syria, March 30, 2012. UPI. License photo

The seizure of a ship off Lebanon carrying arms reportedly destined for rebel forces in neighboring Syria underlineshow the 14-month-old conflict there is being increasingly militarized.

A recent spate of rebel attacks on President Bashar al-Assad's regime indicates that the Free Syrian Army, largelymade up of Syrian military defectors, also points to a growing boldness in anti-regime ranks.

These events, and a report in Monday's Washington Post that the long outgunned and outnumbered rebels aregetting more effective weapons, such as anti-tank missiles, courtesy of Assad's foes in the Persian Gulfmonarchies, suggest the U.N. peace plan put forward by former Secretary-General Kofi Annan is failing.

The Post, citing U.S. and Syrian opposition officials, said the arms flow to the rebels paid for by Saudi Arabia andQatar is being "coordinated in part by the United States." That would mark a significant shift in U.S. policy, whichhas favored a political settlement with Assad surrendering some power and accepting democratic reforms.

The signs are that Assad, who retains the loyalty of the key units of Syria's military and the powerful securityservices, believes his regime can survive intact if he toughs it out.

The Post specified rebel arms are being stockpiled in Damascus, in the flash point region of Idlib near the Turkishborder, and in Zabadani, on Syria's border with Lebanon.

"What's important about this is that it appeared in The Washington Post and would appear to originate with officialsources in Washington," the global security consultancy Stratfor observed.

"Clearly, Washington wants a number of facts to be known. First, weapons -- including anti-tank weapons – arenow being delivered …



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"Second, the funding is coming from other Arab countries. Third, the weapons are already in the country, indicatingthat this has been going on for a while now.

"Finally, this does not mean the United States is becoming militarily involved," Stratfor said.

But it could also demonstrate that U.S. President Barack Obama's administration is ready to take a more robuststand against Bashar's minority Alawite regime in hopes of weakening its key ally, Iran, at a critical time.

This would seem to be reinforced by the timing of the apparent leak, a week before a meeting in Baghdad betweenIran and its Western adversaries on finding a diplomatic solution to the contentious issue of Iran's nuclear program.

It may be just coincidence that U.S. forces are now engaged in maneuvers with Arab forces in Jordan, Syria'ssouthern neighbor, and will soon be exercising with the Israeli military.

Another coincidence: Israel's Haaretz daily reported Monday that the country's military intelligence chief, Maj. Gen.Aviv Kochavi, had "secretly" visited Washington two weeks ago and let it be known that Israel, which has for thepast year believed it was in its interests to keep Assad's regime in place, now feels it's better to get rid of it and dealwith an administration dominated by Syria's Sunni majority.

Damascus and its proxies in Lebanon, notably Hezbollah, are complaining that Saudi-backed Lebanese Sunnis aresmuggling arms to Assad's foes.

The main Sunni party, the Future Movement headed by former premier Saad Hariri, denies that, even as theporous, mountainous border, crisscrossed by a maze of smugglers' trails, becomes a shooting gallery.

Several Lebanese have been killed by Syrian gunfire in recent weeks.

But on April 27, the Lebanese navy intercepted the freighter Lutfallah II bound for the northern port of Tripoli, aSunni stronghold and a hotbed of anti-Syrian activity, with three containers holding some 150 tons of weaponspurportedly destined for Syrian rebels.

The Syrian-owned vessel, registered in Sierra Leone and flying the Egyptian flag, reportedly loaded the armscontainers, which the manifest listed as engine oil, at Benghazi in eastern Libya.

Various accounts said the ship had been chartered by two Syrian businessmen, who live in Saudi Arabia butsupport the anti-Assad rebels, and the arms came from warehouses in Benghazi controlled by Qatar and SaudiArabia, two of the Syrian regime's most ardent Arab foes.

Nine other containers holding hundreds of tons of heavy, medium and light arms, had been scheduled to go aboardthe Lutfallah II at Benghazi, but didn't, for reasons that haven't been explained.

18 may 2012 osint levant tracker

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