18 February 2007 Telecommunications Market Tal Liani Managing Director Telecom Equipment Research,...

18 February 2007

Telecommunications Market

Tal Liani

Managing Director

Telecom Equipment Research, Merrill Lynch

(212) 449-0725

[email protected]

Merrill Lynch does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Customers of Merrill Lynch in the US can receive independent, third-party research on companies covered in this report, at no cost to them, if such research is available. Customers can access this independent research at http://www.ml.com/independentresearch or can call 1-800-637-7455 to request a copy of this research.

Refer to important disclosures on pages 22 to 24.

Global Securities Research & Economics Group Global Fundamental Equity Research Department

2Refer to important disclosures on pages 47 and 48 Tal Liani - Telecom Equipment (212) 449-0725

Israel represents one third of all foreign stocks on NASDAQ. the 3rd country behind the US and Canada

116 Israeli companies listed on Nasdaq, compared to 335 foreign issuers and 3,120 total companies.

What Went Right?

36% 36%

14%5%9%

Technology Communications Healthcare Industrial Other

US Listed Israeli Stock Industry Composition

Different type of investors, Tech (small/mid cap growth) vs. Emerging Markets.

Technology leaders: first DSL, first Switched Video, first VoIP, etc.


Some Cracks Start to Surface

Fact: since 2000, Israeli tech stocks have not paid investors for the assumed risk

Fact: Most Israeli companies remain small. 3.7% of Nasdaq by number of stocks, but only 1.7% in term of market cap.

Israeli Tech Performance Compared to the Nasdaq Composite Index


Triple and Quadruple plays

Multiple sources of content

Networks need to be updated

Traffic is booming

Terayon

Alvarion

AudiocodesCeragonComverse

ECI Telecom

EctelMind CTI

NiceOrckit

Radware

UlticomVocaltec

Radvision

New EPG, storage

Re-birth of the Telecom Space


Triple and Quadruple plays

Multiple sources of content

Networks need to be updated

Traffic is booming

Terayon

Alvarion


ECI Telecom

EctelMind CTI

NiceOrckit

Radware

UlticomVocaltec

Radvision

New EPG, storage

New Era in Telecom; a telecom giant


Amdocs – the good example

- Yellow Pages

- Billing

- CRM

- Cable

- OSS

- China

Next…Financial Institutions


Startups went public too early.

Over-focus on short term targets; reactive instead of proactive; fear of taking calculated risks

Over-focus on technology at the expense of sales, marketing, finance

locals know first; Reg FD

Terayon

Alvarion


ECI Telecom

EctelMind CTI

NiceOrckit

Radware

UlticomVocaltec

Radvision

The price of globalization: Cisco uses local talent

Options scandal

What went wrong?


Conclusion

Israel needs more 800 pound Gorillas

18 February 2007

Israel in an emerging markets perspective

Haim Israel

Senior Director

Emerging Europe and Middle East, Merrill Lynch

(972) 3 607 2007

[email protected]

Merrill Lynch does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Customers of Merrill Lynch in the US can receive independent, third-party research on companies covered in this report, at no cost to them, if such research is available. Customers can access this independent research at http://www.ml.com/independentresearch or can call 1-800-637-7455 to request a copy of this research.

Refer to important disclosures on pages 22 to 24.

Global Securities Research & Economics Group Global Fundamental Equity Research Department


Where does Israel Stands

Morgan Stanley divided the “world” to regions

Each regions was divided to sub regions categories and

countries

MSCI is the most popular benchmark with approx. 400 indices

Around $5 trillion track the different indices

Where is Israel:

Welcome to EM EMEA


We are a Small but brave country…..

Israel comprise only 9% of

EMEA Region…

… and only 2% of GEM

Hard to believe it but we

are NOT the centre of the

universe

Korea18%

South Africa10%

Taiwan19%

Brazil7%

Chaina12%

India8%

Mexico3%

Israel2%

Others21%


And MSCI Israel

Teva45%

CheckPoint15%

POLI6%

LUMI4%

Bezeq4%

ICL2%

Others24%


Sentiment: Positive for GEM

2006, another year of record inflows to EM.

Fund flows into GEM (US$ bn) Cumulative YTD fund flows into GEM (US$ bn)

YTD 2007 inflows running well below the hedonistic 2006 pace.


Global liquidity: neutral for GEM

Global liquidity still growing above 10%.

Global liquidity growth Current account (US$ bn)

There are substantial savings in EM to boost growth and asset prices.


GEM positive short-term

A low volatility environment is best for GEM.

MSCI EM relative & VIX index Global investors’ appetite for GEM equities

Global fund managers are still OW in GEM in last 9 months.


Israel: Neutral

Investors underweight and market has underperformed.

Israel price relative & GEM fund allocation

Israel Forward P/E Relative to EM (%)

Relative valuation inexpensive but limited scope for upside.


Liquidity: cause and effect

Source: Datastream

Source: Merrill Lynch, Bank of IsraelSource: MoF, Merrill Lynch

Source: Datastream, MSCI

TA-100 vs. basic interest rates lack of supply/ accelerating demand: governmental bonds rising

vs. public offering of equities & convertibles (NIS, bn)

Development in the Mutual funds AUMDevelopment in the mutual AUM

-15.0

0.0

15.0

30.0

45.0

60.0

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

F

equities and conv ertibles gov ernmental bonds (net after redemptions)

0

5

10

15

20

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

CB base rate TA-100

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

01

/04

05

/04

09

/04

01

/05

05

/05

09

/05

01

/06

05

/06

09

/06

01

/07

10

12

14

16

18

20

basic rate equity linked assets of total AUM

020,00040,00060,00080,000

100,000120,000140,000

19

92

19

94

19

96

19

98

20

00

20

02

20

04

20

06

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

Total asset v alue (NIS,m) Equity & deriv ativ es of total AUM


Defensive story of Israel

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

02 03 04 05 06 07

Beta 5 Yrs. Av g 1 Yr. Av g


Did Israeli equities did that well?

-10.9%

-8.1%

-5.9%

-0.9%

-0.2%

1.4%

3.2%

4.1%

5.7%

5.7%

6.8%

7.2%

9.6%

11.6%

12.6%

14.0%

14.7%

14.7%

15.0%

15.8%

17.2%

18.2%

20.4%

21.0%

40.3%

42.0%

-20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

LUMI

DSCT

GLOB

MZTF

DISI

PRGO

HARL

BEZQ

STEL

ORMT

POLI

ILCO

MGDL

TA-25

KOR

IDBD

ICL

ESLT

NICE

IDBH

CLIS

Delek

MAIN

TEVA

PTNR

AFIL

-23.8%

-21.4%

-19.6%

-15.3%

-14.7%

-13.3%

-11.8%

-11.1%

-9.6%

-9.6%

-8.7%

-8.4%

-6.3%

-4.6%

-3.7%

-2.6%

-2.0%

-1.9%

-1.7%

-1.0%

0.2%

1.1%

2.9%

3.5%

19.9%

21.4%

-30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30%

LUMI

DSCT

GLOB

MZTF

DISI

PRGO

HARL

BEZQ

STEL

ORMT

POLI

ILCO

MGDL

TA-25

KOR

IDBD

ICL

ESLT

NICE

IDBH

CLIS

Delek

MAIN

TEVA

PTNR

AFIL


What is important for us in a company?

Good numbers always help but they are not the assent

Management quality

Visibility

Access to top management

Not to freak out when recommendation is going down

Always remember – it is a 2-way relationship!!

Remember – when it comes to EM investors – zero tolerance

policy


CSCO Price Chart

$0

$4

$8

$12

$16

$20

$24

$28

$32

$36

$40

1-Jan-04 1-Jan-05 1-Jan-06

CSCO

B : Buy, N : Neutral, S : Sell, PO : Price objective, NA : No longer valid

1-Feb:NLiani

4-Dec:BPO:$29

11-Aug:NPO:NA

12-Apr:BPO:$23

10-NovPO:$21

Review Restricted

The Investment Opinion System is contained at the end of the report under the heading "Fundamental Equity Opinion Key". Dark Grey shading indicates the security is restricted with the opinion suspended. Light Grey shading indicates the security is under review with the opinion withdrawn. Chart current as of January 31, 2006.

AV Price Chart

$0

$3

$6

$9

$12

$15

$18

$21

1-Jan-04 1-Jan-05 1-Jan-06

AV

B : Buy, N : Neutral, S : Sell, PO : Price objective, NA : No longer valid

29-Nov:NFiallo

23-FebLiani

24-Feb:BPO:$18

27-OctPO:$15

Review Restricted

The Investment Opinion System is contained at the end of the report under the heading "Fundamental Equity Opinion Key". Dark Grey shading indicates the security is restricted with the opinion suspended. Light Grey shading indicates the security is under review with the opinion withdrawn. Chart current as of January 31, 2006. Investment Rating Distribution: Telecommunications Group(as of 31 Dec 2005) Coverage Universe Count Percent Inv. Banking Relationships* Count Percent Buy 60 42.86% Buy 30 50.00% Neutral 67 47.86% Neutral 20 29.85% Sell 13 9.29% Sell 6 46.15% Investment Rating Distribution: Global Group(as of 31 Dec 2005) Coverage Universe Count Percent Inv. Banking Relationships* Count Percent Buy 1119 40.44% Buy 376 33.60% Neutral 1429 51.64% Neutral 401 28.06% Sell 219 7.91% Sell 44 20.09% * Companies in respect of which MLPF&S or an affiliate has received compensation for investment banking services within the past 12 months.

FUNDAMENTAL EQUITY OPINION KEY: Opinions include a Volatility Risk Rating, an Investment Rating and an Income Rating. VOLATILITY RISK RATINGS, indicators of potential price fluctuation, are: A - Low, B - Medium, and C - High. INVESTMENT RATINGS, indicators of expected total return (price appreciation plus yield) within the 12-month period from the date of the initial rating, are: 1 - Buy (10% or more for Low and Medium Volatility Risk Securities - 20% or more for High Volatility Risk securities); 2 - Neutral (0-10% for Low and Medium Volatility Risk securities - 0-20% for High Volatility Risk securities); 3 - Sell (negative return); and 6 - No Rating. INCOME RATINGS, indicators of potential cash dividends, are: 7 - same/higher (dividend considered to be secure); 8 - same/lower (dividend not considered to be secure); and 9 - pays no cash dividend.

MLPF&S or one of its affiliates acts as a market maker for the securities recommended in the report: Avaya Inc., Cisco Systems.MLPF&S or an affiliate was a manager of a public offering of securities of this company within the last 12 months: Cisco Systems.The company is or was, within the last 12 months, an investment banking client of MLPF&S and/or one or more of its affiliates: Cisco Systems.MLPF&S or an affiliate has received compensation from the company for non-investment banking services or products within the past 12 months: Cisco Systems.The company is or was, within the last 12 months, a securities business client (non-investment banking) of MLPF&S and/or one or more of its affiliates: Cisco Systems.The company is or was, within the last 12 months, a non-securities business client of MLPF&S and/or one or more of its affiliates: Cisco Systems.MLPF&S or an affiliate has received compensation for investment banking services from this company within the past 12 months: Cisco Systems.MLPF&S or an affiliate expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from this company within the next three months: Avaya Inc., Cisco Systems.MLPF&S together with its affiliates beneficially owns one percent or more of the common stock of this company. If this report was issued on or after the 10th day of the month, it reflects the ownership

position on the last day of the previous month. Reports issued before the 10th day of a month reflect the ownership position at the end of the second month preceding the date of the report: Cisco Systems.MLPF&S or one of its affiliates is willing to sell to, or buy from, clients the common equity of the company on a principal basis: Avaya Inc., Cisco Systems.The analyst(s) responsible for covering the securities in this report receive compensation based upon, among other factors, the overall profitability of Merrill Lynch, including profits derived from investment

banking revenues.needs of any specific person who may receive this report. Investors should seek financial advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any securities, other investment or investment strategies

discussed or recommended in this report and should understand that statements regarding future prospects may not be realized. Investors should note that income from such securities or other investments, if any, may fluctuate and that price or value of such securities and investments may rise or fall. Accordingly, investors may receive back less than originally invested. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Any information relating to the tax status of financial instruments discussed herein is not intended to provide tax advice or to be used by anyone to provide tax advice. Investors are urged to seek tax advice based on their particular circumstances from an independent tax professional.

Foreign currency rates of exchange may adversely affect the value, price or income of any security or related investment mentioned in this report. In addition, investors in securities such as ADRs, whose values are influenced by the currency of the underlying security, effectively assume currency risk.

Officers of MLPF&S or one or more of its affiliates (other than research analysts) may have a financial interest in securities of the issuer(s) or in related investments. Merrill Lynch Research policies relating to conflicts of interest are described at http://www.ml.com/media/43347.pdf.iQanalytics, iQcustom, iQdatabase, iQmethod, iQmethod 2.0, iQprofile, iQtoolkit, iQworks are service marks of Merrill Lynch & Co., Inc.Fundamental equity reports are produced on a regular basis as necessary to keep the investment recommendation current.


Other Important DisclosuresMLPF&S or one of its affiliates has a significant financial interest in the fixed income instruments of the issuer. If this report was issued on or after the 10th day of a month, it reflects a significant financial

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Foreign currency rates of exchange may adversely affect the value, price or income of any security or related investment mentioned in this report. In addition, investors in securities such as ADRs, whose values are influenced by the currency of the underlying security, effectively assume currency risk.

Officers of MLPF&S or one or more of its affiliates (other than research analysts) may have a financial interest in securities of the issuer(s) or in related investments. Merrill Lynch Research policies relating to conflicts of interest are described at http://www.ml.com/media/43347.pdf.iQanalytics, iQcustom, iQdatabase, iQmethod, iQmethod 2.0, iQprofile, iQtoolkit, iQworks are service marks of Merrill Lynch & Co., Inc.Fundamental equity reports are produced on a regular basis as necessary to keep the investment recommendation current.

18 February 2007 Telecommunications Market Tal Liani Managing Director Telecom Equipment Research,...

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