17Q1 National and Regional Commercial Real Estate...

of 103 /103
17Q1 National and Regional Commercial Real Estate Overview Presented By Steve Basham - Senior Market Analyst

Embed Size (px)

Transcript of 17Q1 National and Regional Commercial Real Estate...

  • 17Q1 National and Regional Commercial Real Estate Overview

    Presented By Steve Basham - Senior Market Analyst

  • Todays Agenda

    Where Does The Data Come From? National Economy Los Angeles Economy National Office Los Angeles Office National Apartments Los Angeles Apartments National Industrial Los Angles Logistics National Retail Los Angeles Retail

  • is the Number One leader in 5 key industries

    LargestCommercialRealEstateInformation&Analytics

    MostHeavilyTraffickedDigitalRentalMarketplace

    MostHeavilyTraffickedBusinessforSaleMarketplace

    MostHeavily TraffickedCommercialR.E.Marketplace

    MostHeavilyTraffickedRuralLandforSaleMarketplace

  • Full Time Researchers

  • FIELD RESEARCH

    130+VEHICLES

    400,000+COMMUNITIES

    VISITED

    FIELD RESEARCH

    AERIALRESEARCH$3 MILLION INVESTEMENT

  • National Economy Overview

  • GDP Growth Trending Up

    S o u r c e s : M o o d y ' s A n a l y t i c s ; B E A ; C o S t a r Por t fo l io S t r a tegy A s of 1 6 Q 3

    6 %

    4 %

    2 %

    0 %

    ( 2 % )

    ( 4 % )

    ( 6 % )

    ( 8 % )

    ( 1 0 % )

    8 %

    0 7 1 2 1 60 8 0 9 1 0 1 1

    G o o d s ( M a n u f a c t u r i n g ) S e r v i c e s

    1 3 1 4 1 5

    S t r u c t u r e s ( C o n s t r u c t i o n ) G D P

    C o n t r i b u t i o n t o G D P G r o w t h

  • Consumption Is Driving Growth

    S o u r c e s : B E A ; C o S t a r Por t fo l io S t r a tegy A s of 1 6 Q 3

    6 %

    4 %

    2 %

    0 %

    ( 2 % )

    ( 4 % )

    ( 6 % )

    ( 8 % )

    ( 1 0 % )

    ( 1 2 % )

    8 %

    1 00 8 0 9

    C o n s u m p t i o n

    E x p o r t s

    1 1 1 2

    B u s . I n v e s t m e n t

    I m p o r t s

    1 3 1 4

    R e s i d . I n v e s t m e n t

    G o v e r n m e n t

    1 5 1 6

    C h g I n v e n t o r y

    T o t a l G D P

    C o n t r i b u t i o n t o G D P G r o w t h

  • A Troubling Trend Slowing Growth During Expansions

    A s o f 1 6 Q 3

    4 .9 %3 .8 %

    3 .3 % 3 .3 % 3 .5 %2 .4 %

    1 .9 % 1 .4 %

    8 %

    6 %

    4 %

    2 %

    0 %

    (2 % )

    (4 % )

    (6 % )

    (8 % )

    1958

    Q2

    -19

    60Q

    1 Rec

    essi

    on19

    61Q

    1-

    1969

    Q3 Rec

    essi

    on19

    70Q

    3-

    1973

    Q4 Rec

    essi

    on19

    75Q

    2-

    1980

    Q1 Rec

    essi

    on19

    82Q

    4-

    1990

    Q2 Rec

    essi

    on19

    91Q

    2-

    2001

    Q1 Rec

    essi

    on20

    01Q

    4-

    2007

    Q4 Rec

    essi

    on20

    09Q

    3-

    2016

    Q3

    A v e r a g e A n n u a l i z e d R e a l p e r C a p i t a G D P G r o w t h D u r i n g E x p a n s i o n s T o t a l p e r C a p i t a G D P D e c l i n e D u r i n g R e c e s s i o n s

    S o u r c e s : M o o d y ' s A n a l y t i c s ; B E A ; C o S t a r Por t fo l io S t r a t e g y

    R e a l p e r C a p i t a G D P G r o w t h

  • Leading Indicators Foreshadow Continued Slow Growth

    (1 0 % )

    (8 % )

    (2 % )

    0 %

    2 %

    8 %

    1 0 %

    (2 0 % )

    (1 5 % )

    (4 % )( 1 0 % )

    (6 % )

    (5 % )

    0 %

    5 %

    6 %1 0 %

    4 %

    1 5 %

    2 0 %

    7 3 7 5 7 7 7 9 8 1 8 3 8 5 8 7 8 9 9 1 9 3 9 5 9 7 9 9 0 1 0 3 0 5 0 7 0 9 1 1 1 3 1 5

    S o u r c e s : M o o d y ' s A n a l y t i c s ; C o n f e r e n c e B o a r d ; B E A ; C o S t a r Por t fo l io S t r a t e g y A s of N o v 2 0 1 6

    L e a d i n g E c o n o m i c I n d i c a t o r s ( Y / Y ) G D P G r o w t h ( Y / Y )

  • Imbalances Beginning To Build Up Again?

    S o u r c e s : M o o d y ' s A n a l y t i c s ; B E A ; C o S t a r Por t fo l io S t r a t e g y A s o f 1 6 Q 3

    0 %

    2 %

    4 %

    6 %

    8 %

    1 0 %

    1 2 %

    1 4 %

    1 6 %

    1 .5

    2 .0

    2 .5

    3 .0

    3 .5

    4 .0

    4 .5

    5 .0

    7 5 7 7 7 9 8 1 8 3 8 5 8 7 8 9 9 1

    M e d i a n H o m e P r i c e / I n c o m e S a v i n g s R a t e

    9 3 9 5 9 7 9 9 0 1 0 3 0 5 0 7 0 9 1 1 1 3 1 5

    A v e r a g e H o m e P r i c e / I n c o m eA v e r a g e S a v i n g s R a t e

    M e d i a n H o m e P r i c e / I n c o m e R a t i o P e r s o n a l S a v i n g s R a t e

  • The Cycle Marches On

    8 0 0

    6 0 0

    4 0 0

    2 0 0

    0

    ( 2 0 0 )

    ( 4 0 0 )

    ( 6 0 0 )

    ( 8 0 0 )

    (1 ,0 0 0 )

    1 ,0 0 0

    6 0 6 5 7 0 7 5 8 0 8 5

    S o u r c e s : B u r e a u o f L a b o r S t a t i s t i c s ; C o S t a r Por t fo l io S t r a t e g y

    9 0 9 5 0 0 0 5 1 0 1 5

    A s of N o v 2 0 1 6

    M o n t h l y J o b C h a n g e ( 0 0 0 s )

  • A Strong Run For Employment Winding Down

    S o u r c e s : M o o d y ' s A n a l y t i c s ; B L S ; C o S t a r Por t fo l io S t r a t e g y A s of N o v 2 0 1 6

    2 %

    4 %

    6 %

    8 %

    1 0 %

    1 2 %( 9 0 0 )

    ( 6 0 0 )

    ( 4 5 0 )

    ( 3 0 0 )

    ( 1 5 0 )

    0

    1 5 0

    3 0 0

    4 5 0

    6 0 0

    0 5 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 60 6 0 7 0 8

    J o b s G a i n e d / L o s t

    0 9 1 0 1 1

    U n e m p l o y m e n t R a t e

    M o n t h l y J o b s G a i n e d ( 3 - M o n t h T ra i l ing A v e r a g e ) U n e m p l o y m e n t R a t e

    4 .4 %

    1 0 .0 %( 7 5 0 )

    4 .9 %

  • Health Care And Retail Leading The Recovery

    S o u r c e s : S t a n d a r d & Poor ' s ; C o S t a r Por t fo l io S t r a t e g y A s o f D e c 2 0 1 6

    3 0

    8 0

    1 3 0

    1 8 0

    2 3 0

    2 8 0

    0 9 1 2 1 41 0

    S & P 5 0 0

    1 1

    E n e rg y

    1 3

    H e a l t h C a r e

    1 5

    F i n a n c e

    1 6

    I T R e ta i l

    I n d e x L e v e l

  • Time For A Raise Unemployment Vs. Wage Growth

    0 %

    2 %

    4 %

    6 %2 %

    3 %5 %

    4 %

    5 %

    6 %3 %

    7 %

    8 %

    9 %1 %

    1 0 %

    1 1 %0 1 0 2 0 3 0 4 0 5 0 6 0 7 0 8 0 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3

    S o u r c e s : B u r e a u o f L a b o r S t a t i s t i c s ; Fede ra l Rese rve B a n k o f A t l an ta ; C o S t a r Por t fo l io S t r a t e g y

    1 4 1 5 1 6

    A s o f N o v e m b e r 2 0 1 6

    A vg . H o u r l y W a g eU n e m p l o y m e n t R a t e

  • The Clock Is Ticking On This Cycle

    3 0 %

    2 5 %

    2 0 %

    1 5 %

    1 0 %

    5 %

    0 %

    Probab i l i ty O f R e c e s s i o n

    1 0 0 %

    8 0 %

    6 0 %

    4 0 %

    2 0 %

    0 %1 6 1 7 1 8

    S o u r c e : C o S t a r Por t fo l io S t r a tegy

    1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4A s O f 1 6 Q 3

    1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4C u m u l a t i v e P r o b a b i l i t y O f R e c e s s i o n

  • page 17

    Demographics Favor The South And West

    A s of 16Q3

    2 0 %1 8 %1 6 %1 4 %1 2 %1 0 %

    8 %6 %4 %2 %0 %

    (2% )

    Orla

    ndo

    Aust

    i n

    Cha

    rlotte

    Atla

    nta

    Phoe

    nix

    Dal

    las

    -

    FW

    Hou

    ston

    Seat

    tle

    San

    Die

    go

    Mia

    mi

    Was

    hing

    ton,

    D.C

    .D

    env er

    Min

    neap

    olis

    San

    Fran

    cisc

    o

    Ora

    nge

    Cou

    nty

    Los

    Ange

    les

    New

    York

    Bost

    o n

    Chi

    cago

    Nor

    ther

    n

    NJ

    Phila

    delp

    hia

    Sain

    t

    Loui

    s

    Cumulat ive Forecas t G r o w t h in W o r k i n g Age Popula t ion (2017-2022)

    W e s t Sou th Eas t M idwes tSources: Moody's Analy t i cs ; CoStar Portfol io Strategy

  • LA Employment Gains Trailing US Average

    S o u r c e s : M o o d y ' s A n a l y t i c s ; C o S t a r Por t fo l io S t r a t e g y A s o f D e c e m b e r 2 0 1 6

    1 3 0 %

    1 2 5 %

    1 2 0 %

    1 1 5 %

    1 1 0 %

    1 0 5 %

    1 0 0 %

    9 5 %

    9 0 %

    8 5 %

    Aust

    inSa

    nFr

    anci

    sco

    Nas

    hvi

    lle S

    anJo

    se

    Dal

    las

    -FW

    Den

    v er

    Hou

    sto n

    Cha

    rlot te

    Seat

    tle

    New York

    At

    lant

    a Bo

    ston

    Was

    hing

    ton,

    D.C

    .Sa

    nD

    iego Mia

    mi E

    ast

    Bay

    Min

    neap olis US

    Ora

    nge

    Cou

    nty

    Phoe

    E m p l o y m e n t R e l a t i ve T o P r e r e c e s s i o n P e a k

  • Slowing Job Growth In Most Markets

    S o u r c e s : M o o d y ' s A n a l y t i c s ; C o S t a r Por t fo l io S t r a t e g y A s o f 1 6 Q 4

    4 %

    3 %

    2 %

    1 %

    0 %

    5 %

    Orla

    ndo

    Las

    Veg

    asP

    hoen

    ixS

    altL

    ake

    City

    Ral

    ei gh

    Sea

    ttle

    Dal

    las

    Jack

    son

    ville

    Aus

    t in

    Tam

    pa

    Por

    tla ndA

    tlan

    ta M

    iam

    i C

    harlo

    tte

    San

    Ant

    onio

    Den

    ver

    Mem

    phis

    N

    ashv

    ille

    Ora

    nge

    Cou

    nty

    Eas

    tBay

    Cle

    vela

    nd S

    anD

    iego

    San

    Fran

    cisc

    oS

    anJo

    se

    Milw

    auke

    e W

    ashi

    ngto

    n,D

    .C.

    Los

    Ang

    eles

    Det

    roit

    Phi

    lade

    lphi

    aU

    .S.

    Min

    neap

    olis

    Bos

    ton C

    hica

    goS

    t.Lo

    uis

    Kan

    sas

    City

    A n n u a l E m p l o y m e n t G r o w t h - P r e v i o u s T w o Y e a r s F o r e c a s t E m p l o y m e n t - N e x t Y e a r

    A n n u a l E m p l o y m e n t G r o w t h

  • Sales Volume Slowing

    A s o f 1 6 Q 4

    0

    5 0

    1 0 0

    1 5 0

    2 0 0

    2 0 0 5 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7 2 0 0 8 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 2 2 0 1 3 2 0 1 4 2 0 1 5 2 0 1 6

    O f f i c e I n d u s t r i a l

    S o u r c e : C o S t a r Por t fo l io S t r a t e g y

    2 0 0 9 2 0 1 0

    M u l t i - F a m i l y R e ta i l

    A n n u a l S a l e s V o l u m e $ B

    Y o Y C h a n g e :Mul t i -Fami ly : - 5 %

    Of f i ce : - 1 0 %

    Reta i l : - 1 4 %

    Industr ia l : - 2 3 %

    0 7 Q 3 - 0 8 Q 3 % C h a n g eMul t i -Fami ly : - 4 1 %Of f i ce : - 5 8 %Reta i l : - 3 7 %Industr ia l : - 4 4 %

  • Solid Income Gains Through 2019

    S o u r c e : C o S t a r Por t fo l io S t r a t e g y A s of 1 6 Q 3

    Y / Y N O I G r o w t h

    5 .0 %

    4 .0 %

    3 .0 %

    2 .0 %

    1 .0 %

    0 .0 %

    6 .0 %

    2 0 2 02 0 1 6

    Of f i ce (U .S . )

    2 0 1 7 2 0 1 8

    A p a r t m e n t (U .S . )

    2 0 1 9

    Log i s t i c s ( U .S . )

    2 0 2 1

    R e ta i l (U .S . )

  • Los Angeles Economy Overview

  • Los Angeles Historical Employment Growth

    As of 16Q4Sources: Moody's Analytics; CoStar Market Analytics*Year-To-Date

    (8%)

    (6%)

    (4%)

    (2%)

    0%

    2%

    05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16*

    Los Angeles United States

    Employment Growth (Y/Y)4%

  • Los Angeles Job Growth By Employment Sector*

    As of 16Q4Sources: Moody's Analytics; CoStar Market Analytics*Employment sectors ordered by total number of workers.

    103% 98% 101%

    114%102%

    96%

    126%

    57%

    90%82% 81%

    (1%)

    2%

    3%

    4%

    0%

    40%1%

    20%

    60%

    80%

    100%

    120%

    140%

    Tota

    lNon

    agric

    ultu

    ral

    Offi

    ce-U

    sing

    Trad

    e

    Educ

    atio

    n/He

    alth

    Serv

    ices

    Bus

    ines

    sSe

    rvic

    es

    Gov

    ernm

    ent

    Leis

    ure

    and

    Hos

    pita

    lity

    Man

    ufac

    turin

    g

    Fina

    ncia

    lAct

    iviti

    es

    Info

    rmat

    ion

    Con

    stru

    ctio

    n

    Employment As A % Of Prerecession Peak Employment Growth Last 12 Months

    Employment As A % Of Prerecession Peak Employment Growth(Y/Y)

  • Los Angeles Current Population And Growth By Age Cohort

    Sources: Moody's Analytics; CoStar Market Analytics As of 16Q4

    21%

    26%

    25%

    United States

    28%

    65+ Years Older 50-64 Years Old 35-49 Years Old 20-34 Years Old

    25%20%15%10%5%0%

    (5%)65+ Years Older 20-34 Years Old

    2011-2016 Growth

    50-64 Years Old

    Los Angeles35-49 Years Old

    UnitedStates

    24%

    27%

    31%

    Los Angeles

    17%

  • Sales Volume Shows Continued Growth

    Source: CoStar Market Analytics As of 16Q4

    $0

    $2

    $4

    $6

    $8

    $10

    $12

    2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

    Office Multifamily Retail Industrial

    Sales Volume (Billions)

  • National Office Overview

  • Vacancy Improves As Other Fundamentals Weaken

    S o u r c e : C o S t a r P o r t f o l i o S t r a t e g y A s o f 1 6 Q 4

    2 0 1 5 2 0 1 6

    N e t A b s o r p t i o n 1 0 2 M S F 8 3 M S F iV a c a n c y 1 0 . 7 % 1 0 . 4 % i

    R e n t G r o w t h ( Y / Y ) 4 . 4 % 3 . 2 % iD e l i v e r i e s 6 5 M S F 5 9 M S F i

    U n d e r C o n s t r u c t i o n 1 2 9 M S F 1 3 8 M S F hS a l e s V o l u m e $ 1 5 6 B i l l i o n $ 1 4 1 B i l l i o n i

  • U.S. Office Space Per Worker In Square Feet

    S o u r c e s : M o o d y ' s A n a l y t i c s , C o S t a r Por t fo l io S t r a t e g y A s of 1 6 Q 3No te : A s s u m e s a 5 % s h a r e i n c r e a s e in of f ice j obs for 2 0 0 0 t o 2 0 1 6 d u e t o fas ter of f ice j ob g r owth t h a n t h e overal l e m p l o y m e n t t rend

    2 7 0

    2 6 0

    2 5 0

    2 4 0

    2 3 0

    2 2 0

    2 1 0

    2 0 0

    2 8 0

    9 0 9 2 9 4 9 6 9 8 0 0 0 2 0 4 0 6 0 8 1 0 1 2 1 4 1 6

    S q u a r e F e e t P e r J o b In O f f i c e S p a c e

    rS p a c e pecession

    e r j o b r i sbecause

    e s d u r i nj ob l a y o

    g affs

    grea t l y e x c e e d s pareductio

    c en s

    2 3 0

  • Vacancy Rates: Current Vs. Two-Year Forecast

    A s of 1 6 Q 4

    1 6 %

    1 4 %

    1 2 %

    1 0 %

    8 %

    6 %

    4 %

    1 8 %

    Hou

    ston

    Dal

    las-

    FW Chi

    ca

    go Det

    roi

    t Atla

    nt

    a Den

    v

    er

    Los

    Ange

    les

    San

    Die

    go

    Phila

    delp

    hia

    Mia

    mi N

    ew

    York

    San

    Anto

    nio

    Was

    hing

    ton

    D.C

    .

    Bost

    W e s t S o u t h

    S o u r c e : C o S t a r Por t fo l io S t r a t e g y

    E a s t M id w e s t 1 8 Q 4 F o r e c a s t V a c a n c y

    1 6 Q 4 V a c a n c y R a t e

  • Many Office Markets Have Sub 9% Vacancy

    Asof16Q4Source:CoStarPortfolio Strategy

  • Vacancies Declining In Most Markets

    Source:CoStarPortfolioStrategy

  • A s o f 1 6 Q 3

    A t l a n t a

    B o s t o n

    D a l l a s - F W

    D e n v e r

    L o s A n g e l e sD e t r o i t

    N e w Y o r k

    P h o e n i x

    C h a r lo t te E a s t B a y

    S a n D i e g o

    S a n J o s e

    S a n F r a n c i s c o

    M i n n e a p o l i s O r a n g e C o u n t y

    O r la n d o A u s tinI n d i a n a p o l i s

    W a s h i n g t o n , D . C .

    (1 )

    0

    1

    2

    3

    4

    5

    6

    7

    (1 ) 0 7

    I m p r o v i n g D e m a n d

    S l o w i n g D e m a n d

    W e s t S o uth E a s t M id w e s tS o u r c e : C o S t a r P o r t f o l i o S t r a t e g y

    H o u s t o nC h i c a g o

    1 2 3 4 5 6A v g . A n n u a l N e t A b s o r p t i o n , P a s t T h r e e Y e a r s ( S F Mi l l ions)

    P a s t 6 M o n t h s A b s o r p t i o n , A n n u a l i z e d ( S F Mi l l ions)

    Current Vs. Three-Year Trend In Office Net Absorption

  • Vacancy Rates for Buildings 0-10 years Old

    S o u r c e : C o S t a r Por t fo l io S t r a t e g y A s of 1 6 Q 3

    1 8 %

    1 6 %

    1 4 %

    1 2 %

    1 0 %

    8 %

    6 %

    4 %

    2 %

    0 %

    San

    Fran

    cisc

    oN

    ashv

    illeM

    inne

    apol

    isSe

    att le

    Ral

    eig

    h Ea

    stBa

    y Bo

    ston

    C

    harlo tte

    Ta

    mpa

    O

    rland o

    Portl

    and,

    OR

    Fort

    Laud

    erda

    leO

    rang

    eC

    ount

    y Den

    ver

    Palm

    Beac

    hC

    ount

    yPh

    ilade

    lphi

    a Sa

    nD

    iego

    C

    hica

    g oD

    alla

    s-F

    ort

    Wor

    thAu

    stin

    New

    York

    Mia

    2 0 0 6 - N e w e r V a c a n c y

  • Southern California: Half As Much Supply As Last Cycle

    A s of 1 6 Q 3

    54 4 5 4 4 4

    2 2 2 2 2 2 23 3 2

    3 3 44 4 4 4 3 4 4 3 3 2 3 3

    3 34 3

    2

    7

    65 4

    4

    3 3

    3

    21

    11

    1 1

    1 11

    11 1

    1 1 2 2 2 3 33

    33

    33

    4

    0 %

    1 0 %

    2 0 %

    3 0 %

    4 0 %

    5 0 %

    6 0 %

    7 0 %

    8 0 %

    9 0 %

    0

    2

    4

    6

    8

    1 0

    1 2

    1 4

    07Q

    3 07Q

    4 08Q

    1 08Q

    2 08Q

    3 08Q

    4 09Q

    1 09Q

    2 09Q

    3 09Q

    4 10Q

    1 10Q

    2 10Q

    3 10Q

    4 11Q

    1 11Q

    2 11Q

    3 11Q

    4 12Q

    1 12Q

    2 12Q

    3 12Q

    4

    U C C o m m i t t e d U C A v a i l a b l e

    S o u r c e : C o S t a r Por t fo l io S t r a t e g yI n c l u d e s Lo s An g e l e s , O r a n g e Coun t y , a n d S a n D i e g o

    P e r c e n t A v a i l a b l e

    R B A U n d e r C o n s t r u c t i o n (Mi l l ions S F ) ( % S p e c u l a t i ve )

  • Los Angeles Office Overview

  • Los Angeles Office Fundamentals

    Source: CoStar Market Analytics As of 16Q4

    0%

    2%

    4%

    6%

    8%

    10%

    12%

    14%

    -8

    -6

    -4

    -2

    0

    2

    4

    6

    8

    10

    05 06 07 08 11 12 13 16

    Demand Change

    09 10

    Supply Change Vacancy

    14 15

    National Index Vacancy

    Demand & Supply (MSF)12

    Vacancy

  • Vacancy By Star Rating

    Source: CoStar Market Analytics As of 16Q4

    16%

    14%

    12%

    10%

    8%

    6%

    4%

    2%

    0%

    18%

    05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

    1 & 2 Star 3 Star 4 & 5 Star

    Vacancy Rate

  • Submarkets With The Most Deliveries

    Source: CoStar Market Analytics As of 16Q4

    1,000

    800

    600

    400

    200

    0

    1,200G

    reat

    erD

    ownt

    own

    Hol

    lyw

    ood/

    Silv

    erLa

    ke

    Long

    Beac

    h:D

    ownt

    own

    Wes

    tHol

    lyw

    ood

    East

    ern

    SGV

    ElSe

    gund

    o

    Pasa

    dena

    /Arc

    adia

    /Mon

    rovi

    a

    New Supply Since 2013

    Square Feet (000s)

  • Largest Percent Of Inventory Growth Since 2013

    Source: CoStar Market Analytics As of 16Q4

    8.7%7.8% 7.8%

    3.4% 3.3% 3.0%2.3% 2.3%

    2%

    0%

    4%

    6%4.4%

    8%

    10%

    Long

    Beac

    h:D

    ownt

    own

    Wes

    tHol

    lyw

    ood

    Tarz

    ana

    Hol

    lyw

    ood/

    Silv

    erLa

    ke

    Ant

    elop

    eVa

    lley

    East

    ern

    SFV

    Mar

    ina

    Del

    Rey

    /Ven

    ice

    Sant

    aC

    larit

    aVa

    lley

    East

    ern

    SGV

    ElSe

    gund

    o

    Percentage of Total Inventory Growth

    Percentage of Growth12%

    10.1%

  • Submarkets With The Most Construction

    Source: CoStar Market Analytics As of 16Q4

    0%

    1%

    2%

    3%

    4%

    5%

    6%

    1,600

    1,400

    1,200

    1,000

    800

    600

    400

    200

    0

    Gre

    ater

    Dow

    ntow

    n

    Hol

    lyw

    ood/

    Silv

    erLa

    ke

    Mar

    ina

    Del

    Rey

    /Ven

    ice

    Cul

    verC

    ity

    Wes

    tHol

    lyw

    ood

    Sant

    aM

    onic

    a

    Sout

    heas

    tLos

    Ange

    les

    Pasa

    dena

    /Arc

    adia

    /Mon

    rovi

    a

    SF Preleased SF Available % Of Inventory

    % Of Inventory GrowthSquare Footage Under Construction (000s)1,800

  • Rent Growth

    Source: CoStar Market Analytics As of 16Q4

    4.4%

    7.3%

    11.9%

    -4.0%

    5.1%6.5%

    5.8%

    1.8%

    5.5%

    8.2%

    0.3% 0.7%

    -7.1%-7.3%

    -2.1% -2.0%

    0.4%1.7% 1.6%

    3.0% 3.0%3.8% 4.4%

    3.1%

    (10%)

    (5%)

    0%

    5%

    10%

    05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

    Rent Growth (Y/Y)15%

    Rent Growth National Rent Growth

  • Los Angeles Sales Volume And Pricing

    Source: CoStar Market Analytics As of 16Q4

    $0

    $50

    $100

    $150

    $200

    $250

    $300

    $350

    $0

    $2

    $4

    $6

    $8

    $10

    05 06 07 10 11 15 1608 09

    Annual Sales Volume

    12 13 14

    Median Price Per Square Foot

    $12 Sales Volume (Billions) Price Per Square Foot

  • Submarket Sales Volume And Pricing$1,000

    $900

    $800

    $700

    $600

    $500

    $400

    $300

    $200

    $100

    $0

    $1,600

    $1,400

    $1,200

    $1,000

    $800

    $600

    $400

    $200

    $0

    $1,800Sa

    nta

    Mon

    ica

    Gre

    ater

    Dow

    ntow

    n

    Mar

    ina

    Del

    Rey

    /Ven

    ice

    Wes

    twoo

    d

    ElSe

    gund

    o

    Pasa

    dena

    /Arc

    adia

    /Mon

    rovi

    a

    Bre

    ntw

    ood

    Sales Volume Last 4 Quarters

    Source: CoStar Market Analytics

    Median Price Per Square Foot Last 4 Quarters

    As of 16Q4

    Price Per Square FootSales Volume (Millions)

  • Office Cap Rates By Star Rating

    As of 16Q4Source: CoStar Market Analytics*Year-To-Date

    3.0%

    4.0%

    5.0%

    6.0%

    7.0%

    8.0%

    9.0%

    05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16*

    1&2 Star 3 Star 4&5 Star

    Cap Rate

  • National Apartment Overview

  • Peak Supply Levels Should Nudge Vacancies Modestly Higher

    A s o f 1 6 Q 4S o u r c e : C o S t a r Por t fo l io S t r a t e g y* H i s t o r i c a l A v e r a g e : 2 0 0 1 - 1 6

    4 .5 %

    5 .0 %

    5 .5 %

    7 .0 %

    7 .5 %

    8 .0 %

    0

    5 0

    1 0 0

    6 .5 %1 5 0

    6 .0 %

    2 0 0

    2 5 0

    3 0 0

    0 8 0 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1

    2 .9 %

    (0.5%)(1 .0%)

    0 .5 %

    2 .5 %

    4 . 9 % 4 . 7 %

    0 .2 %

    (5 .5 %)

    1 . 7 % 1 . 6 %2 . 7 % 3 . 1 % 3 . 3 %

    4 .9 %

    2 .3 % 2 .5 % 2 .2 % 2 .4 % 2 . 2 %1 .4 %

    6 %4 %2 %0 %

    (2 % )(4 % )(6 % )

    A n n u a l C h a n g e in D e m a n d & S u p p l y ( 0 0 0 s U n i t s ) V a c a n c y & V a c a n c y A v e r a g e

    0 1 0 2 0 3 0 4 0 5 0 6 0 7A n n u a l R e n t G r o w t h

  • Decline In Homeownership Has Driven Rental Demand

    S o u r c e s : M o o d y ' s A n a l y t i c s ; U . S . C e n s u s B u r e a u ( C P S / H V S ) ; C o S t a r Por t fo l io S t r a t e g y A s o f 1 6 Q 3

    3 0

    3 2

    3 6

    3 8

    4 0

    4 4

    4 6

    6 0 %

    6 1 %

    6 3 %3 4

    6 2 %

    6 4 %

    6 5 %

    6 6 %

    6 7 %

    6 8 %4 2

    6 9 %

    7 0 %

    9 4 0 2 0 8 1 0 1 2 1 4 1 69 6 9 8 0 0

    R e n t e r H o u s e h o l d s

    0 4 0 6

    U . S . H O R a t e

    H o m e o w n e r s h i p R a t e R e n t e r O c c u p i e d H o u s e h o l d s (Mi l l ions)

    H . O . R a t e in 2 0 0 4 P e a k : 6 9 . 2 % 2 0 1 6 Q 3 H . O . R a t e : 6 3 . 5 % I n c r e a s e in R e n t e r H H ' s : 1 0 . 3 MI n c r e a s e d u e to H H F o r m a t i o n : 3 . 5 MI n c r e a s e d u e to C h a n g e in H . O . R a t e : 6 . 8 M

  • Homeownership Declined Across All Age Cohorts

    A s o f 1 6 Q 3

    1 1 0

    1 0 5

    1 0 0

    9 5

    9 0

    8 5

    1 1 5

    9 0 9 2 9 4 9 6 9 8 0 0 0 2 0 4 0 6 0 8 1 0 1 2 1 4 1 6

    < 3 5 3 5 - 4 4 4 5 - 5 4 5 5 - 6 4 6 5 +

    S o u r c e s : M o o d y ' s A n a l y t i c s ; U . S . C e n s u s B u r e a u ( C P S / H V S ) ; C o S t a r Por t fo l io S t r a t e g y*T hree -Quar te r M o v i n g Ave r age

    H o m e o w n e r s h i p R a t e I n d e x * ( 1 0 0 = 1 9 9 0 )

  • More People Are Living Alone

    A s o f 1 6 Q 4S o u r c e s : U . S . C e n s u s B u r e a u ; Cur ren t P o p u l a t i o n Survey , A n n u a l S o c i a l a n d E c o n o m i c S u p p l e m e n t ; C o S t a r Por t fo l io S t r a t e g y

    1 0 %

    1 5 %

    2 0 %

    2 5 %

    3 0 %

    0

    5

    1 0

    1 5

    2 0

    2 5

    3 0

    3 5

    4 0

    6 0 8 5 9 0 9 5 0 0 0 5 1 0 1 56 5 7 0 7 5 8 0

    S i n g l e P e r s o n H o u s e h o l d s S i n g l e P e r s o n H o u s e h o l d s a s % o f T o t a l H o u s e h o l d s

    S i n g l e P e r s o n H o u s e h o l d s ( M i l l ions ) % S i n g l e P e r s o n H o u s e h o l d s

  • The Renter Demand Pool By Income

    A s o f 1 6 Q 4S o u r c e s : U . S . C e n s u s A C S Survey ; C o S t a r Por t fo l io S t r a t e g y* A m e r i c a n C o m m u n i t y Survey D a t a T h rough 2 0 1 5

    1 5 . 7 M i l l i o n 3 6 %

    1 2 . 2 M i l l i o n 2 8 %

    7 . 2 M i l l i o n 1 6 . 5 %

    3 . 8 M i l l i o n 8 . 6 %

    4 . 8 M i l l i o n 11 %

    $ 0 - $ 2 5 , 0 0 0

    $ 2 5 , 0 0 0 - $ 5 0 , 0 0 0

    $ 5 0 , 0 0 0 - $ 7 5 , 0 0 0

    $ 7 5 , 0 0 0 - $ 1 0 0 , 0 0 0

    $ 1 0 0 , 0 0 0 +

    R e n t e r H o u s e h o l d s (Mi l l ions)

  • Peak Construction Expected In 2017 (Top 54 Metros)

    S o u r c e : C o S t a r Por t fo l io S t r a t e g y A s o f 1 6 Q 3

    0

    5 0

    1 0 0

    1 5 0

    2 0 0

    2 5 0

    0 0 0 1 0 2 0 3 0 4 0 5 0 6 0 7 0 8 0 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1

    S u p p l y C h a n g e ( Y / Y ) H i s to r i ca l A v e r a g e S u p p l y ( 1 9 9 0 - 1 5 )

    S u p p l y ( 0 0 0 s U n i t s )

  • Renter Households Growth Concentrated In CBDs

    A s o f 1 6 Q 4S o u r c e s : N e u s t a r ; C o S t a r Por t fo l io S t r a t e g y* B u b b l e s i z e d e n o t e s n u m b e r o f ren ter h o u s e h o l d s i n 1 6 Q 4 .

    C B DS e c o n d a r y C o r e

    P r i m e S u b u r b a n

    S u b u rb a n

    0 . 0 %

    ( 0 . 2 % )

    ( 0 . 4 % )

    U rb a n( 0 . 6 % )

    ( 0 . 8 % )

    ( 1 . 0 % )

    0 .2 %

    0 .4 %

    0 .6 %

    4 % 5 % 6 % 1 3 % 1 4 % 1 5 %

    C h a n g e In S h a r e O f R e n t e r H o u s e h o l d s

    7 % 8 % 9 % 1 0 % 1 1 % 1 2 %

    P e r c e n t a g e G r o w t h O f R e n t e r H o u s e h o l d s

  • CBD Vacancies Continue Their March Upwards

    S o u r c e : C o S t a r Por t fo l io S t r a tegy A s of 1 6 Q 3

    4 .0 %

    4 .5 %

    5 .0 %

    5 .5 %

    6 .0 %

    6 .5 %

    2 0 1 2 2 0 1 3 2 0 1 4 2 0 1 5 2 0 1 6

    V a c a n c y R a t e

    C B D S e c o n d a r y C o r e U r b a n P r i m e S u b u r b a n S u b u rb a n

  • Submarkets With Most Supply Last 8 Quarters

    S o u r c e : C o S t a r Por t fo l io S t r a t e g y A s o f 1 6 Q 3

    0 8 ,0 0 02 ,0 0 0

    U n i t s D e l i v e r e d

    4 , 0 0 0 6 , 0 0 0

    U n i t s U n d e r C o n s t r u c t i o n

    U n i t s D e l i ve r e d A n d U n d e r C o n s t r u c t i o nC H I C - D o w n t o w n C h i c a g o

    H O U S - N e a r t o w n / R i v e r O a k s A T L A - B u c k h e a d - B r o o k h a v e n

    D E N V - D o w n t o w n / C h e r r y C r e e k D A L L - U p t o w n / P a r k C i t i e s A T L A - D o w n t o w n / M i d t o w n

    N A S H - W e s t E n d / C B DS A N A - N o r t h w e s t S i d e

    L O S A - D o w n t o w n L o s A n g e l e s H O U S - Br ia r F o r e s t / W e s t M e m o r i a l

    D A L L - F a r m e r s B r a n c h / A d d i s o n H O U S - N o r t h w e s t H o u s t o n

    N E W Y - M i d t o w n W e s t R A L E - C e n t r a l R a l e i g h

    D A L L - E a s t D a l l a s H O U S - C i n c o R a n c h

    K A N S - J o h n s o n C o u n t y K SA U S T - S o u t h D A L L - P l a n o

    N E W Y - J e r s e y C i t y W a t e r f r o n t

  • Developers Building Smaller Units

    A s of 1 6 Q 3S o u r c e s : U . S . C e n s u s Bu reau ; Cur ren t Popu la t i on Survey, A n n u a l S o c i a l a n d E c o n o m i c S u p p l e m e n t ; C o S t a r Por t fo l io S t r a tegy

    3 0 %

    3 5 %

    4 0 %

    4 5 %

    5 0 %

    5 5 %

    6 0 %

    1 0 %

    1 2 %

    1 4 %

    1 6 %

    1 8 %

    2 0 %

    2 2 %

    2 4 %

    2 6 %

    2 8 %

    3 0 %

    7 0 0 6 1 0 1 47 4 7 8 8 2 8 6 9 0 9 4 9 8 0 2

    S in g le P e r s o n H o u s e h o l d s A s A % O f T o t a l H o u s e h o l d s S t u d i o s A n d O n e B e d r o o m s A s A % O f N e w C o n s t r u c t i o n

    S t u d i o s A n d 1 B R s A s % O f N e w C o n s t r u c t i o n% S ing le P e r s o n H o u s e h o l d s

  • page 57

    Multifamily NationProportional Representation Of All Multifamily Units Delivered, 2010

    Source: CoStar PortfolioStrategyAs of 16Q2

  • page 58

    Multifamily NationProportional Representation Of All Multifamily Units Delivered, 2010-11

    Source: CoStar PortfolioStrategyAs of 16Q2

  • page 59

    Multifamily NationProportional Representation Of All Multifamily Units Delivered, 2010-12

    Source: CoStar PortfolioStrategyAs of 16Q2

  • page 60

    Multifamily NationProportional Representation Of All Multifamily Units Delivered, 2010-13

    Source: CoStar PortfolioStrategyAs of 16Q2

  • page 61

    Multifamily NationProportional Representation Of All Multifamily Units Delivered, 2010-14

    Source: CoStar PortfolioStrategyAs of 16Q2

  • page 62

    Multifamily NationProportional Representation Of All Multifamily Units Delivered, 2010-15

    Source: CoStar PortfolioStrategyAs of 16Q2

  • page 63

    Multifamily NationProportional Representation Of All Multifamily Units Delivered, 2010-16*

    Source: CoStar PortfolioStrategyAs of 16Q2*Includes units expected to deliver by year-end 2016

  • Rent Growth Decelerating Across The Country

    A s o f 1 6 Q 3

    1 4 %

    1 2 %

    1 0 %

    8 %

    6 %

    4 %

    2 %

    0 %

    (2 % )

    (4 % )

    Sacr

    amen

    toSe

    att

    le In

    land

    Empi

    re

    Salt

    Lake

    City

    Las

    Vega

    sAt

    lant

    aO

    rang

    eC

    ount

    yPh

    oe nix

    Nas

    hville

    Ta

    mpa

    Po

    rtlan

    dO

    R

    Dal

    las

    -FW

    Los

    Ange

    les

    Orla

    ndo

    Ral

    eigh

    D

    etro

    it C

    harlo

    tte

    Min

    neap

    oli s

    Col

    umbu

    sO

    HFo

    rtLa

    uder

    dale

    East

    Bay

    Nor

    ther

    nN

    JPh

    ilade

    lphi

    aAu

    st in

    Chi

    ca go

    Mia

    mi

    Palm

    Beac

    hSa

    nAn

    toni

    o

    Y / Y R e n t G r o w t h

    1 6 Q 3 R e n t G r o w t h

    S o u r c e : C o S t a r Por t fo l io S t r a t e g y

    1 5 Q 3 R e n t G r o w t h T ie r I T ie r I I T ie r I I ISan Die

    go

  • Rent Premium Declining Over Last Few Quarters

    A s of 1 6 Q 3

    3 8 %

    4 0 %

    4 2 %

    4 4 %

    4 6 %

    4 8 %

    5 0 %

    $ 6 0 0

    $ 8 0 0

    $ 1 ,0 0 0

    $ 1 , 2 0 0

    $ 1 , 4 0 0

    $ 1 , 6 0 0

    $ 1 , 8 0 0

    0 7 0 8 0 9

    A ve r a g e A s k i n g R e n t

    0 0 0 1 0 2 0 3 0 4 0 5 0 6

    4 & 5 S t a r P r e m i u m O v e r 3 S t a rS o u r c e : C o S t a r Por t fo l io S t r a tegy

    4 & 5 S t a r

    1 0 1 1 1 2

    3 S t a r

    1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6

    1 & 2 S t a r

    P r e m i u m

  • Los Angeles Apartment Overview

  • SFR Housing Starts And Apt Deliveries vs Household Growth

    Source: Moody's Analytics; CoStar Market Analytics As of 16Q4

    40

    30

    20

    10

    0

    (10)

    (20)

    50

    05 06 07 08 09 12 15 16

    Housing Starts

    10 11

    Household Growth

    13 14

    ApartmentsGrowth

    SFR Starts & Apt Deliveries vs Household Growth (000s)

  • Apartment Fundamentals

    Source: CoStar Market Analytics As of 16Q4

    0.0%

    1.0%

    2.0%

    3.0%

    4.0%

    5.0%

    6.0%

    7.0%

    8.0%

    0

    2

    4

    6

    8

    10

    05 06 07 08 11 12 13 16

    Supply Change

    09 10

    Demand Change Vacancy

    14 15

    National Vacancy

    Demand & Supply (000s Units)12

    Vacancy

  • Vacancy By Star Rating

    Source: CoStar Market Analytics As of 16Q4

    8%

    7%

    6%

    5%

    4%

    3%

    2%

    1%

    0%

    9%

    05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

    1 & 2 Star 3 Star 4 & 5 Star

    Vacancy Rate

  • Submarkets With The Most Deliveries

    Source: CoStar Market Analytics As of 16Q4

    6,000

    5,000

    4,000

    3,000

    2,000

    1,000

    0

    7,000D

    ownt

    own

    Los

    Ang

    eles

    Gre

    ater

    Cul

    ver

    City

    Gle

    ndal

    e

    San

    Gab

    rielV

    alle

    y

    Kor

    eato

    wn

    Hol

    lyw

    ood

    Veni

    ceB

    each

    Mid

    -Wils

    hire

    Woo

    dlan

    dHi

    lls

    Stud

    ioC

    ity/N

    Hol

    lyw

    ood

    New Supply Since 2013

    Number of Units

  • Submarkets With The Most Construction

    Source: CoStar Market Analytics As of 16Q4

    7,000

    6,000

    5,000

    4,000

    3,000

    2,000

    1,000

    0

    8,000D

    ownt

    own

    Los

    Ang

    eles

    Kor

    eato

    wn

    Hol

    lyw

    ood

    Gle

    ndal

    e

    Veni

    ceB

    each

    Gre

    ater

    Cul

    ver

    City

    Wes

    tlake

    San

    Gab

    riel V

    alle

    y

    Wes

    tSan

    Fern

    ando

    Valle

    y

    Wes

    tHol

    lyw

    ood

    Under Construction Units

    Number of Units

  • Los Angeles Rent Level & Growth

    Source: CoStar Market Analytics As of 16Q4

    (10%)

    (8%)

    (6%)

    (4%)

    (2%)

    0%

    2%

    4%

    6%

    8%

    $0

    $200

    $400

    $600

    $800

    $1,000

    $1,200

    $1,400

    $1,600

    $1,800

    05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

    Rent Growth Rent Level

    Rent Level/Month$2,000

    Rent Growth (Y/Y)

  • Average Asking Rent By Star Rating

    Source: CoStar Market Analytics As of 16Q4

    $3,500

    $3,000

    $2,500

    $2,000

    $1,500

    $1,000

    $500

    $0

    $4,000

    Los

    Ange

    les

    Met

    ro

    Wes

    tlake

    Kor

    eato

    wn

    Cen

    tral

    San

    Fern

    ando

    Vly

    Sout

    hBa

    y

    Nor

    thea

    stLo

    sA

    ngel

    es

    Hol

    lyw

    ood

    Long

    Beac

    h/Po

    rts

    East

    Hol

    lyw

    ood

    Mid

    -Wils

    hire

    Sout

    heas

    tLos

    Ange

    les

    4 & 5 Star Asking Rent 3 Star Asking Rent

    Asking Rent

  • Los Angeles Sales Volume And Pricing

    Source: CoStar Market Analytics As of 16Q4

    $0

    $50

    $100

    $150

    $200

    $250

    $0

    $1

    $2

    $3

    $4

    $5

    $6

    $7

    $8

    $9

    05 06 07 10 11 12 13 14 15 1608 09

    Annual SalesVolume Average Price Per Unit

    $10 Sales Volume (Billions) Price Per Unit (000s)

  • Submarket Sales Volume And Pricing

    $500

    $400

    $300

    $200

    $100

    $0

    $600

    $600

    $500

    $400

    $300

    $200

    $100

    $0

    $700Lo

    ngBe

    ach/

    Port

    s

    Sant

    aM

    onic

    a

    Stud

    ioC

    ity/N

    Hol

    lyw

    ood

    Gre

    ater

    Ingl

    ewoo

    d

    Gre

    ater

    Cul

    ver

    City

    Hol

    lyw

    ood

    San

    Gab

    rielV

    alle

    y

    Sout

    heas

    tLos

    Ange

    les

    Kor

    eato

    wn

    Mid

    -Wils

    hire

    Sales Volume Last 4 Quarters

    Source: CoStar Market Analytics

    Average Price Per Unit Last 4 Quarters

    As of 16Q4

    Price Per Unit (000s)Sales Volume (Millions)

  • Apartment Cap Rates By Star Rating

    Source: CoStar Market Analytics As of 16Q4

    7.0%

    6.5%

    6.0%

    5.5%

    5.0%

    4.5%

    4.0%

    3.5%

    3.0%

    7.5%

    05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

    1 & 2 Star 3 Star 4 & 5 Star

    Cap Rate

  • Downtown Los Angeles Submarket Fundamentals10.0%

    9.0%

    8.0%

    7.0%

    6.0%

    5.0%

    4.0%

    3.0%

    2.0%

    1.0%

    0.0%0

    500

    1,000

    1,500

    2,000

    2,500

    07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

    3.6%2.1%

    5.4%

    -3.1% -3.6%

    1.3%2.4% 2.2% 2.6%

    4.3%2.9%

    8%6%4%2%0%

    (2%)(4%)(6%)

    05 06Source: CoStar Market Analytics

    07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16As of 16Q4

    Annual Change in Demand & Supply Vacancy & Vacancy Average

    05 06

    Annual Ren7t.2G% rowth

  • National Industrial Overview

  • Not All Boxes Are Created Equally

    D is t r i bu t i o n

    L i g h t M a n u f a c t u r i n gL i g h t I n d u s t r i a l

    S o u r c e : C o S t a r PoWrtfoaliroeShtraoteugsy e A s o f 1 4 Q 2

    M a j o r I n d u s t r i a l S u b t y p e C o m p o n e n t S u b t y p e s R B A

    L o a d i n g D o c kR a t i o ( S F / D o c k ) F A R

    C l e a rH e i g h t

    O f f i c eF i n i s h S h a p e

    L o g i s t i c sW a r e h o u s e 2 5 K + S F < = 1 5 K S F < = 0 . 5 2 2 ' + < 2 0 % B o x

    D i s t r i b u t i o n 2 0 0 K + S F < = 1 0 K S F < = 0 . 4 2 8 ' + < 5 % B o x

    L igh t Indus t r i a lL i gh t Indus t r i a l < = 1 2 0 K S F < = 1 5 K if 2 5 K + S F b o x A n y 1 6 ' + < 5 0 % B o x if < 2 5 K S FL igh t M a n u f a c t u r i n g 1 0 0 K - 3 0 0 K S F 1 5 K + S F A n y 1 2 ' - 2 2 ' < 5 0 % A n y

    Source:CoStarPortfolio Strategy Asof2016

  • Vacancies Lower Than Any Point In The Last Cycle

    S o u r c e : C o S t a r Por t fo l io S t r a t e g y A s o f 1 6 Q 3

    1 2 %

    1 0 %

    8 %

    6 %

    4 %

    2 %

    0 %

    1 4 %

    1 6 %

    1 6 Q 3 V a c a n c y P r e v i o u s C y c l e V a c a n c y T r o u g h

    V a c a n c y

    T o ta lH i g h

    F u n c ti o n L o wF u n c t i o n

  • Big Or Small, Keep Pushing Those Rents!

    A s o f 1 6 Q 3

    6 .8 % 6 .4 %7 .1 %

    5 .2 %

    6 .5 % 6 .8 %

    5 .0 %

    7 .0 %

    9 .5 %8 .5 %

    1 0 .0 %

    0 %

    2 %

    4 %

    6 %

    8 %

    1 0 %

    1 2 %

    C h a n g e i n R e n t Y / YS o u r c e : C o S t a r P o r t f o l i o S t r a t e g y

    T o ta l H i g h F u n c t i o nC h a n g e i n R e n t ( Y / Y )

    L o w F u n c t i o n

  • Logistics Buildings Capturing Majority Of Absorption

    A s o f 1 6 Q 3

    1 8 0

    1 6 0

    1 4 0

    1 2 0

    1 0 0

    8 0

    6 0

    4 0

    2 0

    0

    1 6 Q 1 1 6 Q 2 1 6 Q 3S o u r c e : C o S t a r Por t fo l io S t r a t e g y

    N e t A b s o r p t i o n ( M S F )

    T o t a l H i g hFunctio n

    L o wFunctio n

  • A Clear Difference In Demand Increases

    S o u r c e : C o S t a r Por t fo l io S t r a tegy A s of 1 6 Q 4

    2 .6

    2 .4

    2 .2

    2 .0

    1 .8

    1 .6

    1 .4

    1 .2

    1 .0

    0 .8

    0 .6

    0 .4

    0 .2

    0 .01 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 10 0 0 1 0 2 0 3 0 4 0 5 0 6

    L o g i s t i c s D e m a n d

    0 7 0 8 0 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6

    L ig h t Indus t r ia l D e m a n d

    C h a n g e in D e m a n d (Bi l l ions S F )

  • Industrial Deliveries - All Distribution

    A s o f 1 6 Q 3

    0

    2 0

    4 0

    6 0

    8 0

    1 0 0

    1 2 0

    1 4 0

    1 6 0

    1 6 Q 1 1 6 Q 2 1 6 Q 3S o u r c e : C o S t a r Por t fo l io S t r a t e g y

    D e l i ve r e d R B A ( M S F )

    T o ta l H i g hF u n c t i o n

    L o wF u n c ti o n

  • Its The Output That Counts

    A s o f 1 6 Q 3S o u r c e s : M o o d y ' s A n a l y t i c s ; C o S t a r Po r t f o l i o S t r a t e g y* 2 0 0 9 $ , S A A R

    I n d e x ( 8 3 Q 1 = 1 0 0 )

    5 0

    1 0 0

    1 5 0

    2 0 0

    2 5 0

    3 0 0

    1 7 1 98 3 8 5 8 7

    D e m a n d

    8 9 9 1 9 3 9 5 9 7 9 9 0 1 0 3

    M a n u f a c t u r i n g E m p l o y m e n t

    0 5 0 7 0 9 1 1 1 3 1 5

    M a n u f a c t u r i n g O u t p u t *

  • Increased Speculative Logistics Construction

    A s o f 1 6 Q 3

    6 2 6 05 4 5 1 4 8

    3 4 2 9 2 62 1 1 7 1 6 1 8 1 8 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 0 1 7 2 3

    3 2 3 3 3 0

    4 9 5 1 4 75 6 5 8

    6 9 7 3 6 55 4 5 6 5 6

    6 8 6 97 5

    5 1

    8 47 3

    6 7

    5 44 4

    2 6

    1 67

    1 1 1 1 222 2 3 9

    1 0

    1 7 1 91 0

    1 9 1 9 2 8

    3 44 0

    4 4

    5 8

    5 6

    6 1 6 27 7

    7 2 6 86 9

    7 6

    9 3 %

    8 6 %

    8 7 %

    8 8 %

    8 9 %

    9 0 %

    9 1 %

    9 2 %

    9 3 %

    9 4 %

    0

    2 0

    4 0

    6 0

    8 0

    1 0 0

    1 2 0

    1 4 0

    1 6 0

    07Q

    3 07Q

    4 08Q

    1 08Q

    2 08Q

    3 08Q

    4 09Q

    1 09Q

    2 09Q

    3 09Q

    4 10Q

    1 10Q

    2 10Q

    3 10Q

    4 11Q

    1 11Q

    2 11Q

    3 11Q

    4 12Q

    1 12Q

    2 12Q

    3 12Q

    4

    C o m m it te d A v a i la b leS o u r c e : C o S t a r P o r t f o l i o S t r a t e g y

    O c c u p a n c y

    U n d e r C o n s t r u c t i o n ( M S F ) O c c u p a n c y ( % )

  • Logistics Investment Very Strong

    A s of 1 6 Q 3S o u r c e : C o S t a r Por t fo l io S t r a tegy*Four -quar te r ro l l ing average.

    1 4 1 5 1 6

    $1 0

    $8

    $6

    $4

    $2

    $0

    $1 2

    0 1 0 2 0 3 0 4 0 5 0 6

    L igh t Indus t r i a l S a l e s V o l u m e

    0 7 0 8 0 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3

    Log is t i c s S a l e s V o l u m e

    S a l e s V o l u m e ( $ B )

  • Los Angeles Logistics Overview

  • Logistics Fundamentals

    As of 16Q4Source: CoStar Market Analytics*Year-To-Date

    0%

    2%

    4%

    6%

    8%

    10%

    12%

    14%

    -4,000

    -2,000

    0

    2,000

    4,000

    6,000

    8,000

    05 06 07 08 11 12 13 16*

    Demand Change

    09 10

    Supply Change Vacancy

    14 15

    National Index Vacancy

    Demand & Supply (000s)10,000

    Vacancy

  • Vacant Available Blocks

    Source: CoStar Market Analytics As of 16Q4

    70

    60

    50

    40

    30

    20

    10

    0

    80

    06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

    Existing 100K-250K Existing 250K-500K Existing 500K-1M

    # of SF Blocks

  • Rent Growth

    As of 16Q4Source: CoStar Market Analytics*Year-To-Date

    3.8%

    8.1%

    2.1%

    -11.7%

    0.9%

    7.9%

    5.7%

    10.7% 10.2%

    2.8%4.2% 3.7%

    4.8%

    -0.2%

    -7.1% -7.3%

    -4.6%

    -0.6%-1.1%

    1.3%

    3.5%4.3%

    6.1% 6.5%

    (15%)

    (10%)

    (5%)

    0%

    5%

    10%

    05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16*

    Rent Growth (Y/Y)15%

    Rent Growth National Rent Growth

  • Los Angeles Sales Volume And Pricing

    As of 16Q4Source: CoStar Market Analytics*Year-To-Date

    $0

    $20

    $40

    $60

    $80

    $100

    $120

    $140

    $0

    $200

    $400

    $600

    $800

    $1,000

    $1,200

    05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16*

    Annual SalesVolume Median Price Per Square Foot

    $1,400 Sales Volume (Millions) Price Per Square Foot

  • National Retail Overview

  • Effects of Last Cycles Overbuilding

    Source: CoStar Portfolio Strategy As of 16Q3

    06 07 10 12Mall

    08 09Neighborhood Center

    11Power Center

    13 14Community Center

    15 16Strip Center

    Under Construction (Millions SF)120

    100

    80

    60

    40

    20

    0

  • Steady Downward Trend

    Sources: CoStar Portfolio Strategy; About.com; Terranomics; SEC Filings As of 16Q3

    80

    60

    40

    20

    0

    (20)

    (40)

    (60)

    100

    2015 20162010 2011 2012

    Announced Store Openings (SF)

    2013 2014

    Announced Store Closings (SF) Net Change

    SF (Millions)

  • Recovery By Abstention

    S o u r c e : C o S t a r Por t fo l io S t r a t e g y A s o f 1 6 Q 3

    0 %

    1 %

    2 %

    7 %

    8 %

    9 %

    0

    5 0

    6 %1 5 0

    5 %

    4 %1 0 0

    3 %

    2 0 0

    2 5 0

    9 2 9 4 9 6 9 8 0 0 0 2

    Q u a r t e r l y S u p p l y G r o w t h

    0 4 0 6 0 8 1 0 1 2 1 4

    Q u a r t e r l y D e m a n d G r o w t h

    1 6 1 8 2 0

    V a c a n c y

    S u p p l y & D e m a n d (Mi l l ions S F ) V a c a n c y

  • Competitive Vacancies Tighter Than Ever

    S o u r c e : C o S t a r P o r t f o l i o S t r a t e g y A s o f 1 6 Q 4

    7 %

    6 %

    5 %

    4 %

    3 %

    2 %

    1 %

    0 %

    8 %

    0 6 0 7 0 8 0 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6

    V a c a n c y C o m p e t i t i v e V a c a n c y ( e x c l . b l d g s w i t h > 4 0 % v a c a n t )

    V a c a n c y R a t e

  • Investment Activity Slowing

    S o u r c e : C o S t a r Por t fo l io S t r a t e g y A s o f 1 6 Q 4

    $ 0

    $ 2

    $ 4

    $ 6

    $ 8

    $ 1 0

    $ 1 2

    $ 1 4

    $ 1 6

    5 0

    7 5

    1 0 0

    1 2 5

    1 5 0

    1 7 5

    2 0 0

    2 2 5

    0 0 0 1 0 2 0 3 0 4

    I n v e s t m e n t V o l u m e

    0 5 0 6 0 7 0 8 0 9

    R e p e a t S a l e s I n d e x

    1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6

    A v g Q u a r t e r l y I n v e s t m e n t V o l u m e

    Q u a r t e r l y I n v e s t m e n t V o l u m e ( $ B )R e p e a t R e t a i l S a l e s I n d e x ( V a l u e W e i g h t e d )

  • Los Angeles Retail Overview

  • Retail Fundamentals

    Source: CoStar Market Analytics As of 16Q3

    0.0%

    1.0%

    2.0%

    3.0%

    4.0%

    5.0%

    6.0%

    7.0%

    8.0%

    9.0%

    -3,000

    -2,000

    -1,000

    0

    1,000

    2,000

    3,000

    4,000

    5,000

    6,000

    7,000

    05 06 07 08 11 12 13 16

    Supply Change

    09 10

    Demand Change Vacancy

    14 15

    National Vacancy

    Demand & Supply (000s Units)8,000

    Vacancy

  • Retail Rent Growth

    As of 16Q3Source: CoStar Market Analytics*Year-To-Date

    4.8%

    8.7%

    16.0%

    -4.4%

    -7.2%-5.5%

    -2.6%

    -0.4%

    0.1%

    4.3%

    7.3%5.6%

    (10%)

    (5%)

    0%

    5%

    10%

    15%

    05 06 07 08 09 12 13 14 15 16*

    Rent Growth (Y/Y)20%

    10 11

    Rent Growth (Y/Y)

  • Los Angeles Retail Sales Volume And Pricing

    As of 16Q3Source: CoStar Market Analytics*Year-To-Date

    $0

    $50

    $300

    $350

    $0

    $500

    $3,000$250

    $2,500$200

    $2,000

    $150$1,500

    $100$1,000

    $3,500

    05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16*

    Annual Sales Volume Median Price Per Square Foot

    Sales Volume (Millions) Price Per Square Foot$4,000

  • Presented By:

    Steve BashamSenior Market Analyst [email protected] 866.834.4096