17Q1 National and Regional Commercial Real Estate...
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17Q1 National and Regional Commercial Real Estate Overview
Presented By Steve Basham - Senior Market Analyst
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Todays Agenda
Where Does The Data Come From? National Economy Los Angeles Economy National Office Los Angeles Office National Apartments Los Angeles Apartments National Industrial Los Angles Logistics National Retail Los Angeles Retail
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is the Number One leader in 5 key industries
LargestCommercialRealEstateInformation&Analytics
MostHeavilyTraffickedDigitalRentalMarketplace
MostHeavilyTraffickedBusinessforSaleMarketplace
MostHeavily TraffickedCommercialR.E.Marketplace
MostHeavilyTraffickedRuralLandforSaleMarketplace
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Full Time Researchers
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FIELD RESEARCH
130+VEHICLES
400,000+COMMUNITIES
VISITED
FIELD RESEARCH
AERIALRESEARCH$3 MILLION INVESTEMENT
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National Economy Overview
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GDP Growth Trending Up
S o u r c e s : M o o d y ' s A n a l y t i c s ; B E A ; C o S t a r Por t fo l io S t r a tegy A s of 1 6 Q 3
6 %
4 %
2 %
0 %
( 2 % )
( 4 % )
( 6 % )
( 8 % )
( 1 0 % )
8 %
0 7 1 2 1 60 8 0 9 1 0 1 1
G o o d s ( M a n u f a c t u r i n g ) S e r v i c e s
1 3 1 4 1 5
S t r u c t u r e s ( C o n s t r u c t i o n ) G D P
C o n t r i b u t i o n t o G D P G r o w t h
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Consumption Is Driving Growth
S o u r c e s : B E A ; C o S t a r Por t fo l io S t r a tegy A s of 1 6 Q 3
6 %
4 %
2 %
0 %
( 2 % )
( 4 % )
( 6 % )
( 8 % )
( 1 0 % )
( 1 2 % )
8 %
1 00 8 0 9
C o n s u m p t i o n
E x p o r t s
1 1 1 2
B u s . I n v e s t m e n t
I m p o r t s
1 3 1 4
R e s i d . I n v e s t m e n t
G o v e r n m e n t
1 5 1 6
C h g I n v e n t o r y
T o t a l G D P
C o n t r i b u t i o n t o G D P G r o w t h
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A Troubling Trend Slowing Growth During Expansions
A s o f 1 6 Q 3
4 .9 %3 .8 %
3 .3 % 3 .3 % 3 .5 %2 .4 %
1 .9 % 1 .4 %
8 %
6 %
4 %
2 %
0 %
(2 % )
(4 % )
(6 % )
(8 % )
1958
Q2
-19
60Q
1 Rec
essi
on19
61Q
1-
1969
Q3 Rec
essi
on19
70Q
3-
1973
Q4 Rec
essi
on19
75Q
2-
1980
Q1 Rec
essi
on19
82Q
4-
1990
Q2 Rec
essi
on19
91Q
2-
2001
Q1 Rec
essi
on20
01Q
4-
2007
Q4 Rec
essi
on20
09Q
3-
2016
Q3
A v e r a g e A n n u a l i z e d R e a l p e r C a p i t a G D P G r o w t h D u r i n g E x p a n s i o n s T o t a l p e r C a p i t a G D P D e c l i n e D u r i n g R e c e s s i o n s
S o u r c e s : M o o d y ' s A n a l y t i c s ; B E A ; C o S t a r Por t fo l io S t r a t e g y
R e a l p e r C a p i t a G D P G r o w t h
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Leading Indicators Foreshadow Continued Slow Growth
(1 0 % )
(8 % )
(2 % )
0 %
2 %
8 %
1 0 %
(2 0 % )
(1 5 % )
(4 % )( 1 0 % )
(6 % )
(5 % )
0 %
5 %
6 %1 0 %
4 %
1 5 %
2 0 %
7 3 7 5 7 7 7 9 8 1 8 3 8 5 8 7 8 9 9 1 9 3 9 5 9 7 9 9 0 1 0 3 0 5 0 7 0 9 1 1 1 3 1 5
S o u r c e s : M o o d y ' s A n a l y t i c s ; C o n f e r e n c e B o a r d ; B E A ; C o S t a r Por t fo l io S t r a t e g y A s of N o v 2 0 1 6
L e a d i n g E c o n o m i c I n d i c a t o r s ( Y / Y ) G D P G r o w t h ( Y / Y )
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Imbalances Beginning To Build Up Again?
S o u r c e s : M o o d y ' s A n a l y t i c s ; B E A ; C o S t a r Por t fo l io S t r a t e g y A s o f 1 6 Q 3
0 %
2 %
4 %
6 %
8 %
1 0 %
1 2 %
1 4 %
1 6 %
1 .5
2 .0
2 .5
3 .0
3 .5
4 .0
4 .5
5 .0
7 5 7 7 7 9 8 1 8 3 8 5 8 7 8 9 9 1
M e d i a n H o m e P r i c e / I n c o m e S a v i n g s R a t e
9 3 9 5 9 7 9 9 0 1 0 3 0 5 0 7 0 9 1 1 1 3 1 5
A v e r a g e H o m e P r i c e / I n c o m eA v e r a g e S a v i n g s R a t e
M e d i a n H o m e P r i c e / I n c o m e R a t i o P e r s o n a l S a v i n g s R a t e
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The Cycle Marches On
8 0 0
6 0 0
4 0 0
2 0 0
0
( 2 0 0 )
( 4 0 0 )
( 6 0 0 )
( 8 0 0 )
(1 ,0 0 0 )
1 ,0 0 0
6 0 6 5 7 0 7 5 8 0 8 5
S o u r c e s : B u r e a u o f L a b o r S t a t i s t i c s ; C o S t a r Por t fo l io S t r a t e g y
9 0 9 5 0 0 0 5 1 0 1 5
A s of N o v 2 0 1 6
M o n t h l y J o b C h a n g e ( 0 0 0 s )
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A Strong Run For Employment Winding Down
S o u r c e s : M o o d y ' s A n a l y t i c s ; B L S ; C o S t a r Por t fo l io S t r a t e g y A s of N o v 2 0 1 6
2 %
4 %
6 %
8 %
1 0 %
1 2 %( 9 0 0 )
( 6 0 0 )
( 4 5 0 )
( 3 0 0 )
( 1 5 0 )
0
1 5 0
3 0 0
4 5 0
6 0 0
0 5 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 60 6 0 7 0 8
J o b s G a i n e d / L o s t
0 9 1 0 1 1
U n e m p l o y m e n t R a t e
M o n t h l y J o b s G a i n e d ( 3 - M o n t h T ra i l ing A v e r a g e ) U n e m p l o y m e n t R a t e
4 .4 %
1 0 .0 %( 7 5 0 )
4 .9 %
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Health Care And Retail Leading The Recovery
S o u r c e s : S t a n d a r d & Poor ' s ; C o S t a r Por t fo l io S t r a t e g y A s o f D e c 2 0 1 6
3 0
8 0
1 3 0
1 8 0
2 3 0
2 8 0
0 9 1 2 1 41 0
S & P 5 0 0
1 1
E n e rg y
1 3
H e a l t h C a r e
1 5
F i n a n c e
1 6
I T R e ta i l
I n d e x L e v e l
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Time For A Raise Unemployment Vs. Wage Growth
0 %
2 %
4 %
6 %2 %
3 %5 %
4 %
5 %
6 %3 %
7 %
8 %
9 %1 %
1 0 %
1 1 %0 1 0 2 0 3 0 4 0 5 0 6 0 7 0 8 0 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3
S o u r c e s : B u r e a u o f L a b o r S t a t i s t i c s ; Fede ra l Rese rve B a n k o f A t l an ta ; C o S t a r Por t fo l io S t r a t e g y
1 4 1 5 1 6
A s o f N o v e m b e r 2 0 1 6
A vg . H o u r l y W a g eU n e m p l o y m e n t R a t e
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The Clock Is Ticking On This Cycle
3 0 %
2 5 %
2 0 %
1 5 %
1 0 %
5 %
0 %
Probab i l i ty O f R e c e s s i o n
1 0 0 %
8 0 %
6 0 %
4 0 %
2 0 %
0 %1 6 1 7 1 8
S o u r c e : C o S t a r Por t fo l io S t r a tegy
1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4A s O f 1 6 Q 3
1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4C u m u l a t i v e P r o b a b i l i t y O f R e c e s s i o n
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page 17
Demographics Favor The South And West
A s of 16Q3
2 0 %1 8 %1 6 %1 4 %1 2 %1 0 %
8 %6 %4 %2 %0 %
(2% )
Orla
ndo
Aust
i n
Cha
rlotte
Atla
nta
Phoe
nix
Dal
las
-
FW
Hou
ston
Seat
tle
San
Die
go
Mia
mi
Was
hing
ton,
D.C
.D
env er
Min
neap
olis
San
Fran
cisc
o
Ora
nge
Cou
nty
Los
Ange
les
New
York
Bost
o n
Chi
cago
Nor
ther
n
NJ
Phila
delp
hia
Sain
t
Loui
s
Cumulat ive Forecas t G r o w t h in W o r k i n g Age Popula t ion (2017-2022)
W e s t Sou th Eas t M idwes tSources: Moody's Analy t i cs ; CoStar Portfol io Strategy
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LA Employment Gains Trailing US Average
S o u r c e s : M o o d y ' s A n a l y t i c s ; C o S t a r Por t fo l io S t r a t e g y A s o f D e c e m b e r 2 0 1 6
1 3 0 %
1 2 5 %
1 2 0 %
1 1 5 %
1 1 0 %
1 0 5 %
1 0 0 %
9 5 %
9 0 %
8 5 %
Aust
inSa
nFr
anci
sco
Nas
hvi
lle S
anJo
se
Dal
las
-FW
Den
v er
Hou
sto n
Cha
rlot te
Seat
tle
New York
At
lant
a Bo
ston
Was
hing
ton,
D.C
.Sa
nD
iego Mia
mi E
ast
Bay
Min
neap olis US
Ora
nge
Cou
nty
Phoe
E m p l o y m e n t R e l a t i ve T o P r e r e c e s s i o n P e a k
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Slowing Job Growth In Most Markets
S o u r c e s : M o o d y ' s A n a l y t i c s ; C o S t a r Por t fo l io S t r a t e g y A s o f 1 6 Q 4
4 %
3 %
2 %
1 %
0 %
5 %
Orla
ndo
Las
Veg
asP
hoen
ixS
altL
ake
City
Ral
ei gh
Sea
ttle
Dal
las
Jack
son
ville
Aus
t in
Tam
pa
Por
tla ndA
tlan
ta M
iam
i C
harlo
tte
San
Ant
onio
Den
ver
Mem
phis
N
ashv
ille
Ora
nge
Cou
nty
Eas
tBay
Cle
vela
nd S
anD
iego
San
Fran
cisc
oS
anJo
se
Milw
auke
e W
ashi
ngto
n,D
.C.
Los
Ang
eles
Det
roit
Phi
lade
lphi
aU
.S.
Min
neap
olis
Bos
ton C
hica
goS
t.Lo
uis
Kan
sas
City
A n n u a l E m p l o y m e n t G r o w t h - P r e v i o u s T w o Y e a r s F o r e c a s t E m p l o y m e n t - N e x t Y e a r
A n n u a l E m p l o y m e n t G r o w t h
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Sales Volume Slowing
A s o f 1 6 Q 4
0
5 0
1 0 0
1 5 0
2 0 0
2 0 0 5 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7 2 0 0 8 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 2 2 0 1 3 2 0 1 4 2 0 1 5 2 0 1 6
O f f i c e I n d u s t r i a l
S o u r c e : C o S t a r Por t fo l io S t r a t e g y
2 0 0 9 2 0 1 0
M u l t i - F a m i l y R e ta i l
A n n u a l S a l e s V o l u m e $ B
Y o Y C h a n g e :Mul t i -Fami ly : - 5 %
Of f i ce : - 1 0 %
Reta i l : - 1 4 %
Industr ia l : - 2 3 %
0 7 Q 3 - 0 8 Q 3 % C h a n g eMul t i -Fami ly : - 4 1 %Of f i ce : - 5 8 %Reta i l : - 3 7 %Industr ia l : - 4 4 %
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Solid Income Gains Through 2019
S o u r c e : C o S t a r Por t fo l io S t r a t e g y A s of 1 6 Q 3
Y / Y N O I G r o w t h
5 .0 %
4 .0 %
3 .0 %
2 .0 %
1 .0 %
0 .0 %
6 .0 %
2 0 2 02 0 1 6
Of f i ce (U .S . )
2 0 1 7 2 0 1 8
A p a r t m e n t (U .S . )
2 0 1 9
Log i s t i c s ( U .S . )
2 0 2 1
R e ta i l (U .S . )
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Los Angeles Economy Overview
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Los Angeles Historical Employment Growth
As of 16Q4Sources: Moody's Analytics; CoStar Market Analytics*Year-To-Date
(8%)
(6%)
(4%)
(2%)
0%
2%
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16*
Los Angeles United States
Employment Growth (Y/Y)4%
-
Los Angeles Job Growth By Employment Sector*
As of 16Q4Sources: Moody's Analytics; CoStar Market Analytics*Employment sectors ordered by total number of workers.
103% 98% 101%
114%102%
96%
126%
57%
90%82% 81%
(1%)
2%
3%
4%
0%
40%1%
20%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
Tota
lNon
agric
ultu
ral
Offi
ce-U
sing
Trad
e
Educ
atio
n/He
alth
Serv
ices
Bus
ines
sSe
rvic
es
Gov
ernm
ent
Leis
ure
and
Hos
pita
lity
Man
ufac
turin
g
Fina
ncia
lAct
iviti
es
Info
rmat
ion
Con
stru
ctio
n
Employment As A % Of Prerecession Peak Employment Growth Last 12 Months
Employment As A % Of Prerecession Peak Employment Growth(Y/Y)
-
Los Angeles Current Population And Growth By Age Cohort
Sources: Moody's Analytics; CoStar Market Analytics As of 16Q4
21%
26%
25%
United States
28%
65+ Years Older 50-64 Years Old 35-49 Years Old 20-34 Years Old
25%20%15%10%5%0%
(5%)65+ Years Older 20-34 Years Old
2011-2016 Growth
50-64 Years Old
Los Angeles35-49 Years Old
UnitedStates
24%
27%
31%
Los Angeles
17%
-
Sales Volume Shows Continued Growth
Source: CoStar Market Analytics As of 16Q4
$0
$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
$12
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Office Multifamily Retail Industrial
Sales Volume (Billions)
-
National Office Overview
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Vacancy Improves As Other Fundamentals Weaken
S o u r c e : C o S t a r P o r t f o l i o S t r a t e g y A s o f 1 6 Q 4
2 0 1 5 2 0 1 6
N e t A b s o r p t i o n 1 0 2 M S F 8 3 M S F iV a c a n c y 1 0 . 7 % 1 0 . 4 % i
R e n t G r o w t h ( Y / Y ) 4 . 4 % 3 . 2 % iD e l i v e r i e s 6 5 M S F 5 9 M S F i
U n d e r C o n s t r u c t i o n 1 2 9 M S F 1 3 8 M S F hS a l e s V o l u m e $ 1 5 6 B i l l i o n $ 1 4 1 B i l l i o n i
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U.S. Office Space Per Worker In Square Feet
S o u r c e s : M o o d y ' s A n a l y t i c s , C o S t a r Por t fo l io S t r a t e g y A s of 1 6 Q 3No te : A s s u m e s a 5 % s h a r e i n c r e a s e in of f ice j obs for 2 0 0 0 t o 2 0 1 6 d u e t o fas ter of f ice j ob g r owth t h a n t h e overal l e m p l o y m e n t t rend
2 7 0
2 6 0
2 5 0
2 4 0
2 3 0
2 2 0
2 1 0
2 0 0
2 8 0
9 0 9 2 9 4 9 6 9 8 0 0 0 2 0 4 0 6 0 8 1 0 1 2 1 4 1 6
S q u a r e F e e t P e r J o b In O f f i c e S p a c e
rS p a c e pecession
e r j o b r i sbecause
e s d u r i nj ob l a y o
g affs
grea t l y e x c e e d s pareductio
c en s
2 3 0
-
Vacancy Rates: Current Vs. Two-Year Forecast
A s of 1 6 Q 4
1 6 %
1 4 %
1 2 %
1 0 %
8 %
6 %
4 %
1 8 %
Hou
ston
Dal
las-
FW Chi
ca
go Det
roi
t Atla
nt
a Den
v
er
Los
Ange
les
San
Die
go
Phila
delp
hia
Mia
mi N
ew
York
San
Anto
nio
Was
hing
ton
D.C
.
Bost
W e s t S o u t h
S o u r c e : C o S t a r Por t fo l io S t r a t e g y
E a s t M id w e s t 1 8 Q 4 F o r e c a s t V a c a n c y
1 6 Q 4 V a c a n c y R a t e
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Many Office Markets Have Sub 9% Vacancy
Asof16Q4Source:CoStarPortfolio Strategy
-
Vacancies Declining In Most Markets
Source:CoStarPortfolioStrategy
-
A s o f 1 6 Q 3
A t l a n t a
B o s t o n
D a l l a s - F W
D e n v e r
L o s A n g e l e sD e t r o i t
N e w Y o r k
P h o e n i x
C h a r lo t te E a s t B a y
S a n D i e g o
S a n J o s e
S a n F r a n c i s c o
M i n n e a p o l i s O r a n g e C o u n t y
O r la n d o A u s tinI n d i a n a p o l i s
W a s h i n g t o n , D . C .
(1 )
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
(1 ) 0 7
I m p r o v i n g D e m a n d
S l o w i n g D e m a n d
W e s t S o uth E a s t M id w e s tS o u r c e : C o S t a r P o r t f o l i o S t r a t e g y
H o u s t o nC h i c a g o
1 2 3 4 5 6A v g . A n n u a l N e t A b s o r p t i o n , P a s t T h r e e Y e a r s ( S F Mi l l ions)
P a s t 6 M o n t h s A b s o r p t i o n , A n n u a l i z e d ( S F Mi l l ions)
Current Vs. Three-Year Trend In Office Net Absorption
-
Vacancy Rates for Buildings 0-10 years Old
S o u r c e : C o S t a r Por t fo l io S t r a t e g y A s of 1 6 Q 3
1 8 %
1 6 %
1 4 %
1 2 %
1 0 %
8 %
6 %
4 %
2 %
0 %
San
Fran
cisc
oN
ashv
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inne
apol
isSe
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ount
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ver
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ount
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s-F
ort
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thAu
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New
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2 0 0 6 - N e w e r V a c a n c y
-
Southern California: Half As Much Supply As Last Cycle
A s of 1 6 Q 3
54 4 5 4 4 4
2 2 2 2 2 2 23 3 2
3 3 44 4 4 4 3 4 4 3 3 2 3 3
3 34 3
2
7
65 4
4
3 3
3
21
11
1 1
1 11
11 1
1 1 2 2 2 3 33
33
33
4
0 %
1 0 %
2 0 %
3 0 %
4 0 %
5 0 %
6 0 %
7 0 %
8 0 %
9 0 %
0
2
4
6
8
1 0
1 2
1 4
07Q
3 07Q
4 08Q
1 08Q
2 08Q
3 08Q
4 09Q
1 09Q
2 09Q
3 09Q
4 10Q
1 10Q
2 10Q
3 10Q
4 11Q
1 11Q
2 11Q
3 11Q
4 12Q
1 12Q
2 12Q
3 12Q
4
U C C o m m i t t e d U C A v a i l a b l e
S o u r c e : C o S t a r Por t fo l io S t r a t e g yI n c l u d e s Lo s An g e l e s , O r a n g e Coun t y , a n d S a n D i e g o
P e r c e n t A v a i l a b l e
R B A U n d e r C o n s t r u c t i o n (Mi l l ions S F ) ( % S p e c u l a t i ve )
-
Los Angeles Office Overview
-
Los Angeles Office Fundamentals
Source: CoStar Market Analytics As of 16Q4
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
05 06 07 08 11 12 13 16
Demand Change
09 10
Supply Change Vacancy
14 15
National Index Vacancy
Demand & Supply (MSF)12
Vacancy
-
Vacancy By Star Rating
Source: CoStar Market Analytics As of 16Q4
16%
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
18%
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
1 & 2 Star 3 Star 4 & 5 Star
Vacancy Rate
-
Submarkets With The Most Deliveries
Source: CoStar Market Analytics As of 16Q4
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
1,200G
reat
erD
ownt
own
Hol
lyw
ood/
Silv
erLa
ke
Long
Beac
h:D
ownt
own
Wes
tHol
lyw
ood
East
ern
SGV
ElSe
gund
o
Pasa
dena
/Arc
adia
/Mon
rovi
a
New Supply Since 2013
Square Feet (000s)
-
Largest Percent Of Inventory Growth Since 2013
Source: CoStar Market Analytics As of 16Q4
8.7%7.8% 7.8%
3.4% 3.3% 3.0%2.3% 2.3%
2%
0%
4%
6%4.4%
8%
10%
Long
Beac
h:D
ownt
own
Wes
tHol
lyw
ood
Tarz
ana
Hol
lyw
ood/
Silv
erLa
ke
Ant
elop
eVa
lley
East
ern
SFV
Mar
ina
Del
Rey
/Ven
ice
Sant
aC
larit
aVa
lley
East
ern
SGV
ElSe
gund
o
Percentage of Total Inventory Growth
Percentage of Growth12%
10.1%
-
Submarkets With The Most Construction
Source: CoStar Market Analytics As of 16Q4
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
Gre
ater
Dow
ntow
n
Hol
lyw
ood/
Silv
erLa
ke
Mar
ina
Del
Rey
/Ven
ice
Cul
verC
ity
Wes
tHol
lyw
ood
Sant
aM
onic
a
Sout
heas
tLos
Ange
les
Pasa
dena
/Arc
adia
/Mon
rovi
a
SF Preleased SF Available % Of Inventory
% Of Inventory GrowthSquare Footage Under Construction (000s)1,800
-
Rent Growth
Source: CoStar Market Analytics As of 16Q4
4.4%
7.3%
11.9%
-4.0%
5.1%6.5%
5.8%
1.8%
5.5%
8.2%
0.3% 0.7%
-7.1%-7.3%
-2.1% -2.0%
0.4%1.7% 1.6%
3.0% 3.0%3.8% 4.4%
3.1%
(10%)
(5%)
0%
5%
10%
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Rent Growth (Y/Y)15%
Rent Growth National Rent Growth
-
Los Angeles Sales Volume And Pricing
Source: CoStar Market Analytics As of 16Q4
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$0
$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
05 06 07 10 11 15 1608 09
Annual Sales Volume
12 13 14
Median Price Per Square Foot
$12 Sales Volume (Billions) Price Per Square Foot
-
Submarket Sales Volume And Pricing$1,000
$900
$800
$700
$600
$500
$400
$300
$200
$100
$0
$1,600
$1,400
$1,200
$1,000
$800
$600
$400
$200
$0
$1,800Sa
nta
Mon
ica
Gre
ater
Dow
ntow
n
Mar
ina
Del
Rey
/Ven
ice
Wes
twoo
d
ElSe
gund
o
Pasa
dena
/Arc
adia
/Mon
rovi
a
Bre
ntw
ood
Sales Volume Last 4 Quarters
Source: CoStar Market Analytics
Median Price Per Square Foot Last 4 Quarters
As of 16Q4
Price Per Square FootSales Volume (Millions)
-
Office Cap Rates By Star Rating
As of 16Q4Source: CoStar Market Analytics*Year-To-Date
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16*
1&2 Star 3 Star 4&5 Star
Cap Rate
-
National Apartment Overview
-
Peak Supply Levels Should Nudge Vacancies Modestly Higher
A s o f 1 6 Q 4S o u r c e : C o S t a r Por t fo l io S t r a t e g y* H i s t o r i c a l A v e r a g e : 2 0 0 1 - 1 6
4 .5 %
5 .0 %
5 .5 %
7 .0 %
7 .5 %
8 .0 %
0
5 0
1 0 0
6 .5 %1 5 0
6 .0 %
2 0 0
2 5 0
3 0 0
0 8 0 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1
2 .9 %
(0.5%)(1 .0%)
0 .5 %
2 .5 %
4 . 9 % 4 . 7 %
0 .2 %
(5 .5 %)
1 . 7 % 1 . 6 %2 . 7 % 3 . 1 % 3 . 3 %
4 .9 %
2 .3 % 2 .5 % 2 .2 % 2 .4 % 2 . 2 %1 .4 %
6 %4 %2 %0 %
(2 % )(4 % )(6 % )
A n n u a l C h a n g e in D e m a n d & S u p p l y ( 0 0 0 s U n i t s ) V a c a n c y & V a c a n c y A v e r a g e
0 1 0 2 0 3 0 4 0 5 0 6 0 7A n n u a l R e n t G r o w t h
-
Decline In Homeownership Has Driven Rental Demand
S o u r c e s : M o o d y ' s A n a l y t i c s ; U . S . C e n s u s B u r e a u ( C P S / H V S ) ; C o S t a r Por t fo l io S t r a t e g y A s o f 1 6 Q 3
3 0
3 2
3 6
3 8
4 0
4 4
4 6
6 0 %
6 1 %
6 3 %3 4
6 2 %
6 4 %
6 5 %
6 6 %
6 7 %
6 8 %4 2
6 9 %
7 0 %
9 4 0 2 0 8 1 0 1 2 1 4 1 69 6 9 8 0 0
R e n t e r H o u s e h o l d s
0 4 0 6
U . S . H O R a t e
H o m e o w n e r s h i p R a t e R e n t e r O c c u p i e d H o u s e h o l d s (Mi l l ions)
H . O . R a t e in 2 0 0 4 P e a k : 6 9 . 2 % 2 0 1 6 Q 3 H . O . R a t e : 6 3 . 5 % I n c r e a s e in R e n t e r H H ' s : 1 0 . 3 MI n c r e a s e d u e to H H F o r m a t i o n : 3 . 5 MI n c r e a s e d u e to C h a n g e in H . O . R a t e : 6 . 8 M
-
Homeownership Declined Across All Age Cohorts
A s o f 1 6 Q 3
1 1 0
1 0 5
1 0 0
9 5
9 0
8 5
1 1 5
9 0 9 2 9 4 9 6 9 8 0 0 0 2 0 4 0 6 0 8 1 0 1 2 1 4 1 6
< 3 5 3 5 - 4 4 4 5 - 5 4 5 5 - 6 4 6 5 +
S o u r c e s : M o o d y ' s A n a l y t i c s ; U . S . C e n s u s B u r e a u ( C P S / H V S ) ; C o S t a r Por t fo l io S t r a t e g y*T hree -Quar te r M o v i n g Ave r age
H o m e o w n e r s h i p R a t e I n d e x * ( 1 0 0 = 1 9 9 0 )
-
More People Are Living Alone
A s o f 1 6 Q 4S o u r c e s : U . S . C e n s u s B u r e a u ; Cur ren t P o p u l a t i o n Survey , A n n u a l S o c i a l a n d E c o n o m i c S u p p l e m e n t ; C o S t a r Por t fo l io S t r a t e g y
1 0 %
1 5 %
2 0 %
2 5 %
3 0 %
0
5
1 0
1 5
2 0
2 5
3 0
3 5
4 0
6 0 8 5 9 0 9 5 0 0 0 5 1 0 1 56 5 7 0 7 5 8 0
S i n g l e P e r s o n H o u s e h o l d s S i n g l e P e r s o n H o u s e h o l d s a s % o f T o t a l H o u s e h o l d s
S i n g l e P e r s o n H o u s e h o l d s ( M i l l ions ) % S i n g l e P e r s o n H o u s e h o l d s
-
The Renter Demand Pool By Income
A s o f 1 6 Q 4S o u r c e s : U . S . C e n s u s A C S Survey ; C o S t a r Por t fo l io S t r a t e g y* A m e r i c a n C o m m u n i t y Survey D a t a T h rough 2 0 1 5
1 5 . 7 M i l l i o n 3 6 %
1 2 . 2 M i l l i o n 2 8 %
7 . 2 M i l l i o n 1 6 . 5 %
3 . 8 M i l l i o n 8 . 6 %
4 . 8 M i l l i o n 11 %
$ 0 - $ 2 5 , 0 0 0
$ 2 5 , 0 0 0 - $ 5 0 , 0 0 0
$ 5 0 , 0 0 0 - $ 7 5 , 0 0 0
$ 7 5 , 0 0 0 - $ 1 0 0 , 0 0 0
$ 1 0 0 , 0 0 0 +
R e n t e r H o u s e h o l d s (Mi l l ions)
-
Peak Construction Expected In 2017 (Top 54 Metros)
S o u r c e : C o S t a r Por t fo l io S t r a t e g y A s o f 1 6 Q 3
0
5 0
1 0 0
1 5 0
2 0 0
2 5 0
0 0 0 1 0 2 0 3 0 4 0 5 0 6 0 7 0 8 0 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1
S u p p l y C h a n g e ( Y / Y ) H i s to r i ca l A v e r a g e S u p p l y ( 1 9 9 0 - 1 5 )
S u p p l y ( 0 0 0 s U n i t s )
-
Renter Households Growth Concentrated In CBDs
A s o f 1 6 Q 4S o u r c e s : N e u s t a r ; C o S t a r Por t fo l io S t r a t e g y* B u b b l e s i z e d e n o t e s n u m b e r o f ren ter h o u s e h o l d s i n 1 6 Q 4 .
C B DS e c o n d a r y C o r e
P r i m e S u b u r b a n
S u b u rb a n
0 . 0 %
( 0 . 2 % )
( 0 . 4 % )
U rb a n( 0 . 6 % )
( 0 . 8 % )
( 1 . 0 % )
0 .2 %
0 .4 %
0 .6 %
4 % 5 % 6 % 1 3 % 1 4 % 1 5 %
C h a n g e In S h a r e O f R e n t e r H o u s e h o l d s
7 % 8 % 9 % 1 0 % 1 1 % 1 2 %
P e r c e n t a g e G r o w t h O f R e n t e r H o u s e h o l d s
-
CBD Vacancies Continue Their March Upwards
S o u r c e : C o S t a r Por t fo l io S t r a tegy A s of 1 6 Q 3
4 .0 %
4 .5 %
5 .0 %
5 .5 %
6 .0 %
6 .5 %
2 0 1 2 2 0 1 3 2 0 1 4 2 0 1 5 2 0 1 6
V a c a n c y R a t e
C B D S e c o n d a r y C o r e U r b a n P r i m e S u b u r b a n S u b u rb a n
-
Submarkets With Most Supply Last 8 Quarters
S o u r c e : C o S t a r Por t fo l io S t r a t e g y A s o f 1 6 Q 3
0 8 ,0 0 02 ,0 0 0
U n i t s D e l i v e r e d
4 , 0 0 0 6 , 0 0 0
U n i t s U n d e r C o n s t r u c t i o n
U n i t s D e l i ve r e d A n d U n d e r C o n s t r u c t i o nC H I C - D o w n t o w n C h i c a g o
H O U S - N e a r t o w n / R i v e r O a k s A T L A - B u c k h e a d - B r o o k h a v e n
D E N V - D o w n t o w n / C h e r r y C r e e k D A L L - U p t o w n / P a r k C i t i e s A T L A - D o w n t o w n / M i d t o w n
N A S H - W e s t E n d / C B DS A N A - N o r t h w e s t S i d e
L O S A - D o w n t o w n L o s A n g e l e s H O U S - Br ia r F o r e s t / W e s t M e m o r i a l
D A L L - F a r m e r s B r a n c h / A d d i s o n H O U S - N o r t h w e s t H o u s t o n
N E W Y - M i d t o w n W e s t R A L E - C e n t r a l R a l e i g h
D A L L - E a s t D a l l a s H O U S - C i n c o R a n c h
K A N S - J o h n s o n C o u n t y K SA U S T - S o u t h D A L L - P l a n o
N E W Y - J e r s e y C i t y W a t e r f r o n t
-
Developers Building Smaller Units
A s of 1 6 Q 3S o u r c e s : U . S . C e n s u s Bu reau ; Cur ren t Popu la t i on Survey, A n n u a l S o c i a l a n d E c o n o m i c S u p p l e m e n t ; C o S t a r Por t fo l io S t r a tegy
3 0 %
3 5 %
4 0 %
4 5 %
5 0 %
5 5 %
6 0 %
1 0 %
1 2 %
1 4 %
1 6 %
1 8 %
2 0 %
2 2 %
2 4 %
2 6 %
2 8 %
3 0 %
7 0 0 6 1 0 1 47 4 7 8 8 2 8 6 9 0 9 4 9 8 0 2
S in g le P e r s o n H o u s e h o l d s A s A % O f T o t a l H o u s e h o l d s S t u d i o s A n d O n e B e d r o o m s A s A % O f N e w C o n s t r u c t i o n
S t u d i o s A n d 1 B R s A s % O f N e w C o n s t r u c t i o n% S ing le P e r s o n H o u s e h o l d s
-
page 57
Multifamily NationProportional Representation Of All Multifamily Units Delivered, 2010
Source: CoStar PortfolioStrategyAs of 16Q2
-
page 58
Multifamily NationProportional Representation Of All Multifamily Units Delivered, 2010-11
Source: CoStar PortfolioStrategyAs of 16Q2
-
page 59
Multifamily NationProportional Representation Of All Multifamily Units Delivered, 2010-12
Source: CoStar PortfolioStrategyAs of 16Q2
-
page 60
Multifamily NationProportional Representation Of All Multifamily Units Delivered, 2010-13
Source: CoStar PortfolioStrategyAs of 16Q2
-
page 61
Multifamily NationProportional Representation Of All Multifamily Units Delivered, 2010-14
Source: CoStar PortfolioStrategyAs of 16Q2
-
page 62
Multifamily NationProportional Representation Of All Multifamily Units Delivered, 2010-15
Source: CoStar PortfolioStrategyAs of 16Q2
-
page 63
Multifamily NationProportional Representation Of All Multifamily Units Delivered, 2010-16*
Source: CoStar PortfolioStrategyAs of 16Q2*Includes units expected to deliver by year-end 2016
-
Rent Growth Decelerating Across The Country
A s o f 1 6 Q 3
1 4 %
1 2 %
1 0 %
8 %
6 %
4 %
2 %
0 %
(2 % )
(4 % )
Sacr
amen
toSe
att
le In
land
Empi
re
Salt
Lake
City
Las
Vega
sAt
lant
aO
rang
eC
ount
yPh
oe nix
Nas
hville
Ta
mpa
Po
rtlan
dO
R
Dal
las
-FW
Los
Ange
les
Orla
ndo
Ral
eigh
D
etro
it C
harlo
tte
Min
neap
oli s
Col
umbu
sO
HFo
rtLa
uder
dale
East
Bay
Nor
ther
nN
JPh
ilade
lphi
aAu
st in
Chi
ca go
Mia
mi
Palm
Beac
hSa
nAn
toni
o
Y / Y R e n t G r o w t h
1 6 Q 3 R e n t G r o w t h
S o u r c e : C o S t a r Por t fo l io S t r a t e g y
1 5 Q 3 R e n t G r o w t h T ie r I T ie r I I T ie r I I ISan Die
go
-
Rent Premium Declining Over Last Few Quarters
A s of 1 6 Q 3
3 8 %
4 0 %
4 2 %
4 4 %
4 6 %
4 8 %
5 0 %
$ 6 0 0
$ 8 0 0
$ 1 ,0 0 0
$ 1 , 2 0 0
$ 1 , 4 0 0
$ 1 , 6 0 0
$ 1 , 8 0 0
0 7 0 8 0 9
A ve r a g e A s k i n g R e n t
0 0 0 1 0 2 0 3 0 4 0 5 0 6
4 & 5 S t a r P r e m i u m O v e r 3 S t a rS o u r c e : C o S t a r Por t fo l io S t r a tegy
4 & 5 S t a r
1 0 1 1 1 2
3 S t a r
1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6
1 & 2 S t a r
P r e m i u m
-
Los Angeles Apartment Overview
-
SFR Housing Starts And Apt Deliveries vs Household Growth
Source: Moody's Analytics; CoStar Market Analytics As of 16Q4
40
30
20
10
0
(10)
(20)
50
05 06 07 08 09 12 15 16
Housing Starts
10 11
Household Growth
13 14
ApartmentsGrowth
SFR Starts & Apt Deliveries vs Household Growth (000s)
-
Apartment Fundamentals
Source: CoStar Market Analytics As of 16Q4
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
0
2
4
6
8
10
05 06 07 08 11 12 13 16
Supply Change
09 10
Demand Change Vacancy
14 15
National Vacancy
Demand & Supply (000s Units)12
Vacancy
-
Vacancy By Star Rating
Source: CoStar Market Analytics As of 16Q4
8%
7%
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
9%
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
1 & 2 Star 3 Star 4 & 5 Star
Vacancy Rate
-
Submarkets With The Most Deliveries
Source: CoStar Market Analytics As of 16Q4
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
7,000D
ownt
own
Los
Ang
eles
Gre
ater
Cul
ver
City
Gle
ndal
e
San
Gab
rielV
alle
y
Kor
eato
wn
Hol
lyw
ood
Veni
ceB
each
Mid
-Wils
hire
Woo
dlan
dHi
lls
Stud
ioC
ity/N
Hol
lyw
ood
New Supply Since 2013
Number of Units
-
Submarkets With The Most Construction
Source: CoStar Market Analytics As of 16Q4
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
8,000D
ownt
own
Los
Ang
eles
Kor
eato
wn
Hol
lyw
ood
Gle
ndal
e
Veni
ceB
each
Gre
ater
Cul
ver
City
Wes
tlake
San
Gab
riel V
alle
y
Wes
tSan
Fern
ando
Valle
y
Wes
tHol
lyw
ood
Under Construction Units
Number of Units
-
Los Angeles Rent Level & Growth
Source: CoStar Market Analytics As of 16Q4
(10%)
(8%)
(6%)
(4%)
(2%)
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
$1,600
$1,800
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Rent Growth Rent Level
Rent Level/Month$2,000
Rent Growth (Y/Y)
-
Average Asking Rent By Star Rating
Source: CoStar Market Analytics As of 16Q4
$3,500
$3,000
$2,500
$2,000
$1,500
$1,000
$500
$0
$4,000
Los
Ange
les
Met
ro
Wes
tlake
Kor
eato
wn
Cen
tral
San
Fern
ando
Vly
Sout
hBa
y
Nor
thea
stLo
sA
ngel
es
Hol
lyw
ood
Long
Beac
h/Po
rts
East
Hol
lyw
ood
Mid
-Wils
hire
Sout
heas
tLos
Ange
les
4 & 5 Star Asking Rent 3 Star Asking Rent
Asking Rent
-
Los Angeles Sales Volume And Pricing
Source: CoStar Market Analytics As of 16Q4
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$0
$1
$2
$3
$4
$5
$6
$7
$8
$9
05 06 07 10 11 12 13 14 15 1608 09
Annual SalesVolume Average Price Per Unit
$10 Sales Volume (Billions) Price Per Unit (000s)
-
Submarket Sales Volume And Pricing
$500
$400
$300
$200
$100
$0
$600
$600
$500
$400
$300
$200
$100
$0
$700Lo
ngBe
ach/
Port
s
Sant
aM
onic
a
Stud
ioC
ity/N
Hol
lyw
ood
Gre
ater
Ingl
ewoo
d
Gre
ater
Cul
ver
City
Hol
lyw
ood
San
Gab
rielV
alle
y
Sout
heas
tLos
Ange
les
Kor
eato
wn
Mid
-Wils
hire
Sales Volume Last 4 Quarters
Source: CoStar Market Analytics
Average Price Per Unit Last 4 Quarters
As of 16Q4
Price Per Unit (000s)Sales Volume (Millions)
-
Apartment Cap Rates By Star Rating
Source: CoStar Market Analytics As of 16Q4
7.0%
6.5%
6.0%
5.5%
5.0%
4.5%
4.0%
3.5%
3.0%
7.5%
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
1 & 2 Star 3 Star 4 & 5 Star
Cap Rate
-
Downtown Los Angeles Submarket Fundamentals10.0%
9.0%
8.0%
7.0%
6.0%
5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
3.6%2.1%
5.4%
-3.1% -3.6%
1.3%2.4% 2.2% 2.6%
4.3%2.9%
8%6%4%2%0%
(2%)(4%)(6%)
05 06Source: CoStar Market Analytics
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16As of 16Q4
Annual Change in Demand & Supply Vacancy & Vacancy Average
05 06
Annual Ren7t.2G% rowth
-
National Industrial Overview
-
Not All Boxes Are Created Equally
D is t r i bu t i o n
L i g h t M a n u f a c t u r i n gL i g h t I n d u s t r i a l
S o u r c e : C o S t a r PoWrtfoaliroeShtraoteugsy e A s o f 1 4 Q 2
M a j o r I n d u s t r i a l S u b t y p e C o m p o n e n t S u b t y p e s R B A
L o a d i n g D o c kR a t i o ( S F / D o c k ) F A R
C l e a rH e i g h t
O f f i c eF i n i s h S h a p e
L o g i s t i c sW a r e h o u s e 2 5 K + S F < = 1 5 K S F < = 0 . 5 2 2 ' + < 2 0 % B o x
D i s t r i b u t i o n 2 0 0 K + S F < = 1 0 K S F < = 0 . 4 2 8 ' + < 5 % B o x
L igh t Indus t r i a lL i gh t Indus t r i a l < = 1 2 0 K S F < = 1 5 K if 2 5 K + S F b o x A n y 1 6 ' + < 5 0 % B o x if < 2 5 K S FL igh t M a n u f a c t u r i n g 1 0 0 K - 3 0 0 K S F 1 5 K + S F A n y 1 2 ' - 2 2 ' < 5 0 % A n y
Source:CoStarPortfolio Strategy Asof2016
-
Vacancies Lower Than Any Point In The Last Cycle
S o u r c e : C o S t a r Por t fo l io S t r a t e g y A s o f 1 6 Q 3
1 2 %
1 0 %
8 %
6 %
4 %
2 %
0 %
1 4 %
1 6 %
1 6 Q 3 V a c a n c y P r e v i o u s C y c l e V a c a n c y T r o u g h
V a c a n c y
T o ta lH i g h
F u n c ti o n L o wF u n c t i o n
-
Big Or Small, Keep Pushing Those Rents!
A s o f 1 6 Q 3
6 .8 % 6 .4 %7 .1 %
5 .2 %
6 .5 % 6 .8 %
5 .0 %
7 .0 %
9 .5 %8 .5 %
1 0 .0 %
0 %
2 %
4 %
6 %
8 %
1 0 %
1 2 %
C h a n g e i n R e n t Y / YS o u r c e : C o S t a r P o r t f o l i o S t r a t e g y
T o ta l H i g h F u n c t i o nC h a n g e i n R e n t ( Y / Y )
L o w F u n c t i o n
-
Logistics Buildings Capturing Majority Of Absorption
A s o f 1 6 Q 3
1 8 0
1 6 0
1 4 0
1 2 0
1 0 0
8 0
6 0
4 0
2 0
0
1 6 Q 1 1 6 Q 2 1 6 Q 3S o u r c e : C o S t a r Por t fo l io S t r a t e g y
N e t A b s o r p t i o n ( M S F )
T o t a l H i g hFunctio n
L o wFunctio n
-
A Clear Difference In Demand Increases
S o u r c e : C o S t a r Por t fo l io S t r a tegy A s of 1 6 Q 4
2 .6
2 .4
2 .2
2 .0
1 .8
1 .6
1 .4
1 .2
1 .0
0 .8
0 .6
0 .4
0 .2
0 .01 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 10 0 0 1 0 2 0 3 0 4 0 5 0 6
L o g i s t i c s D e m a n d
0 7 0 8 0 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6
L ig h t Indus t r ia l D e m a n d
C h a n g e in D e m a n d (Bi l l ions S F )
-
Industrial Deliveries - All Distribution
A s o f 1 6 Q 3
0
2 0
4 0
6 0
8 0
1 0 0
1 2 0
1 4 0
1 6 0
1 6 Q 1 1 6 Q 2 1 6 Q 3S o u r c e : C o S t a r Por t fo l io S t r a t e g y
D e l i ve r e d R B A ( M S F )
T o ta l H i g hF u n c t i o n
L o wF u n c ti o n
-
Its The Output That Counts
A s o f 1 6 Q 3S o u r c e s : M o o d y ' s A n a l y t i c s ; C o S t a r Po r t f o l i o S t r a t e g y* 2 0 0 9 $ , S A A R
I n d e x ( 8 3 Q 1 = 1 0 0 )
5 0
1 0 0
1 5 0
2 0 0
2 5 0
3 0 0
1 7 1 98 3 8 5 8 7
D e m a n d
8 9 9 1 9 3 9 5 9 7 9 9 0 1 0 3
M a n u f a c t u r i n g E m p l o y m e n t
0 5 0 7 0 9 1 1 1 3 1 5
M a n u f a c t u r i n g O u t p u t *
-
Increased Speculative Logistics Construction
A s o f 1 6 Q 3
6 2 6 05 4 5 1 4 8
3 4 2 9 2 62 1 1 7 1 6 1 8 1 8 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 0 1 7 2 3
3 2 3 3 3 0
4 9 5 1 4 75 6 5 8
6 9 7 3 6 55 4 5 6 5 6
6 8 6 97 5
5 1
8 47 3
6 7
5 44 4
2 6
1 67
1 1 1 1 222 2 3 9
1 0
1 7 1 91 0
1 9 1 9 2 8
3 44 0
4 4
5 8
5 6
6 1 6 27 7
7 2 6 86 9
7 6
9 3 %
8 6 %
8 7 %
8 8 %
8 9 %
9 0 %
9 1 %
9 2 %
9 3 %
9 4 %
0
2 0
4 0
6 0
8 0
1 0 0
1 2 0
1 4 0
1 6 0
07Q
3 07Q
4 08Q
1 08Q
2 08Q
3 08Q
4 09Q
1 09Q
2 09Q
3 09Q
4 10Q
1 10Q
2 10Q
3 10Q
4 11Q
1 11Q
2 11Q
3 11Q
4 12Q
1 12Q
2 12Q
3 12Q
4
C o m m it te d A v a i la b leS o u r c e : C o S t a r P o r t f o l i o S t r a t e g y
O c c u p a n c y
U n d e r C o n s t r u c t i o n ( M S F ) O c c u p a n c y ( % )
-
Logistics Investment Very Strong
A s of 1 6 Q 3S o u r c e : C o S t a r Por t fo l io S t r a tegy*Four -quar te r ro l l ing average.
1 4 1 5 1 6
$1 0
$8
$6
$4
$2
$0
$1 2
0 1 0 2 0 3 0 4 0 5 0 6
L igh t Indus t r i a l S a l e s V o l u m e
0 7 0 8 0 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3
Log is t i c s S a l e s V o l u m e
S a l e s V o l u m e ( $ B )
-
Los Angeles Logistics Overview
-
Logistics Fundamentals
As of 16Q4Source: CoStar Market Analytics*Year-To-Date
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
-4,000
-2,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
05 06 07 08 11 12 13 16*
Demand Change
09 10
Supply Change Vacancy
14 15
National Index Vacancy
Demand & Supply (000s)10,000
Vacancy
-
Vacant Available Blocks
Source: CoStar Market Analytics As of 16Q4
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
80
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Existing 100K-250K Existing 250K-500K Existing 500K-1M
# of SF Blocks
-
Rent Growth
As of 16Q4Source: CoStar Market Analytics*Year-To-Date
3.8%
8.1%
2.1%
-11.7%
0.9%
7.9%
5.7%
10.7% 10.2%
2.8%4.2% 3.7%
4.8%
-0.2%
-7.1% -7.3%
-4.6%
-0.6%-1.1%
1.3%
3.5%4.3%
6.1% 6.5%
(15%)
(10%)
(5%)
0%
5%
10%
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16*
Rent Growth (Y/Y)15%
Rent Growth National Rent Growth
-
Los Angeles Sales Volume And Pricing
As of 16Q4Source: CoStar Market Analytics*Year-To-Date
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16*
Annual SalesVolume Median Price Per Square Foot
$1,400 Sales Volume (Millions) Price Per Square Foot
-
National Retail Overview
-
Effects of Last Cycles Overbuilding
Source: CoStar Portfolio Strategy As of 16Q3
06 07 10 12Mall
08 09Neighborhood Center
11Power Center
13 14Community Center
15 16Strip Center
Under Construction (Millions SF)120
100
80
60
40
20
0
-
Steady Downward Trend
Sources: CoStar Portfolio Strategy; About.com; Terranomics; SEC Filings As of 16Q3
80
60
40
20
0
(20)
(40)
(60)
100
2015 20162010 2011 2012
Announced Store Openings (SF)
2013 2014
Announced Store Closings (SF) Net Change
SF (Millions)
-
Recovery By Abstention
S o u r c e : C o S t a r Por t fo l io S t r a t e g y A s o f 1 6 Q 3
0 %
1 %
2 %
7 %
8 %
9 %
0
5 0
6 %1 5 0
5 %
4 %1 0 0
3 %
2 0 0
2 5 0
9 2 9 4 9 6 9 8 0 0 0 2
Q u a r t e r l y S u p p l y G r o w t h
0 4 0 6 0 8 1 0 1 2 1 4
Q u a r t e r l y D e m a n d G r o w t h
1 6 1 8 2 0
V a c a n c y
S u p p l y & D e m a n d (Mi l l ions S F ) V a c a n c y
-
Competitive Vacancies Tighter Than Ever
S o u r c e : C o S t a r P o r t f o l i o S t r a t e g y A s o f 1 6 Q 4
7 %
6 %
5 %
4 %
3 %
2 %
1 %
0 %
8 %
0 6 0 7 0 8 0 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6
V a c a n c y C o m p e t i t i v e V a c a n c y ( e x c l . b l d g s w i t h > 4 0 % v a c a n t )
V a c a n c y R a t e
-
Investment Activity Slowing
S o u r c e : C o S t a r Por t fo l io S t r a t e g y A s o f 1 6 Q 4
$ 0
$ 2
$ 4
$ 6
$ 8
$ 1 0
$ 1 2
$ 1 4
$ 1 6
5 0
7 5
1 0 0
1 2 5
1 5 0
1 7 5
2 0 0
2 2 5
0 0 0 1 0 2 0 3 0 4
I n v e s t m e n t V o l u m e
0 5 0 6 0 7 0 8 0 9
R e p e a t S a l e s I n d e x
1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6
A v g Q u a r t e r l y I n v e s t m e n t V o l u m e
Q u a r t e r l y I n v e s t m e n t V o l u m e ( $ B )R e p e a t R e t a i l S a l e s I n d e x ( V a l u e W e i g h t e d )
-
Los Angeles Retail Overview
-
Retail Fundamentals
Source: CoStar Market Analytics As of 16Q3
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
-3,000
-2,000
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
05 06 07 08 11 12 13 16
Supply Change
09 10
Demand Change Vacancy
14 15
National Vacancy
Demand & Supply (000s Units)8,000
Vacancy
-
Retail Rent Growth
As of 16Q3Source: CoStar Market Analytics*Year-To-Date
4.8%
8.7%
16.0%
-4.4%
-7.2%-5.5%
-2.6%
-0.4%
0.1%
4.3%
7.3%5.6%
(10%)
(5%)
0%
5%
10%
15%
05 06 07 08 09 12 13 14 15 16*
Rent Growth (Y/Y)20%
10 11
Rent Growth (Y/Y)
-
Los Angeles Retail Sales Volume And Pricing
As of 16Q3Source: CoStar Market Analytics*Year-To-Date
$0
$50
$300
$350
$0
$500
$3,000$250
$2,500$200
$2,000
$150$1,500
$100$1,000
$3,500
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16*
Annual Sales Volume Median Price Per Square Foot
Sales Volume (Millions) Price Per Square Foot$4,000
-
Presented By:
Steve BashamSenior Market Analyst [email protected] 866.834.4096