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FX Convictions
DISCLAIMER: This report has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and that it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead. This report is marketing communication and not investment research and is intended for professional and eligible clients only.
04 March 2016
Time for Draghi to deliver
Unusual constellation
Since the end of last month currency markets have showed an interesting development. First,
the yen has been the strongest currency across the board. At the same time, emerging market
currencies have outperformed the US dollar. This combination is very unusual. Often the yen
strengthens because of safe have demand and/or yen repatriation while investors move out of
emerging market currencies.
Performance of major FX 29 January 3 March Performance of our EM FX 29 January 3 March
In % with USD as basis In % with USD as basis
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg
Emerging market commodity currencies have strongly outperformed the US dollar since 11
February at a time that commodity prices, US equities and US Fed rate hike expectations
have started to move higher.
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JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF EUR NOK SEK GBP-1
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Group Economics Macro & Financial Markets
Georgette Boele
Co-ordinator FX & Precious Metals
Strategy
Tel: +31 20 629 7789
Roy Teo
Senior FX Strategist
Tel: +65 6597 8616
Yen as well as EM FX strengthen versus USD (a strange combination)
Since our latest report we have added NOK long versus euro
We have kept in place our long US dollar views versus the euro, the
sterling, the Japanese yen, the Australian and New Zealand dollars
We have also implemented stop loss levels to our high conviction
views
Marketing Communication
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2 FX Convictions Time for Draghi to deliver - 04 March 2016
Sterling has been one of the weakest currencies. It had a good start into February but it
erased more than earlier gains once Prime Minister Cameron announced 23 June as the
referendum date and on news that London Mayor and Conservative political heavy-weight
Boris Johnson will campaign for UK exit from the EU.
Our convictions views
Since our latest report we have added NOK long versus euro. We have kept in place our long
US dollar views versus the euro, sterling, the Japanese yen, and the Australian and New
Zealand dollars. We have also implemented stop loss levels to our high conviction views.
Expectations of ECB monetary stimulus weigh on euro
Weak inflation data and dovish ECB commentary have increased expectations of aggressive
monetary policy easing by the ECB in March. Our base case is that the ECB will cut its
deposit rate by 20bp in March and by another 20bp in June. We expect measures to cushion
the blow for banks. A tiered deposit rate system and even longer duration refi loans look likely.
Finally, we expect a EUR 10bn increase in monthly asset purchases and an extension of the
programme to June 2017. This will be facilitated by removing the deposit rate floor for asset
purchases. As our base scenario is not fully priced in by financial markets, we expect more
downward pressure on the euro.
Keep short sterling versus US dollar
Since Prime Minister Cameron agreed a deal with EU and announced 23 June as the
referendum date, sterling has fallen sharply. Although, financial markets already widely
anticipated that the referendum would be held in June, by officially setting the date Brexit risks
Our open and closed high conviction 2016 views
High conviction views
Source: ABN AMRO Group Economics
High conviction views
Open Position base currency Stop loss
USD/JPY Long since 20 November 2013 112
AUD/USD Short since 3 July 2014 0.74
NZD/USD Short since 30 March 2015 0.69
EUR/USD Short since 12 Nov 2015 15.15 1.15
GBP/USD Short since 26 Nov 2015 15.11 1.4675
EURNOK Short since 19 Feb 2016 17.00 10.00
Closed
AUD/USD Closed short on 5 February 2014, re-opened on 3 July 2014
NZD/USD Closed short on 6 January 2014
USD/CAD Closed long on 5 February 2014
USD/CNY Closed short on 6 February 2014 on opening
KRW/JPY Closed long on 5 February 2014
EUR/GBP Closed short on 16 June 2014
EUR/CHF Closed long on 1 July 2014
EUR/SEK Closed long on 3 July 2014
EUR/PLN Closed short on 2 September 2014
USD/MXN Closed short on 30 September 2014
USD/CHF Closed long on 31 October 2014
CNH/JPY Closed long on 10 November 2014
EUR/MXN Closed short on 12 December 2014
GBP/USD Closed short on 19 May 2015 at 14.30
EUR/USD Closed on 15 Oct 2015 at 1.1440
USD/SGD Closed on 15 Oct 2015 at 1.1780
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3 FX Convictions Time for Draghi to deliver - 04 March 2016
have come more into focus. In addition, news that London Mayor and Conservative political
heavy weight Boris Johnson will campaign for UK exit from the EU was seen as increasing
chances of a Brexit. As a result sterling fell sharply; GBP/USD dropped to even below 1.40
and EUR/GBP surpassed 0.79. Recently, sentiment has calmed somewhat resulting in a slight
recovery of sterling. Although a Brexit is not our base scenario, we have been negative on
sterling versus the US dollar since November 2015 because of a delay in BoE rate hikes, a
weaker economy and fears about Brexit ahead of the referendum. As such our short sterling
versus US dollar high conviction view has been our top-performing trade this year. We expect
GBP/USD to move towards 1.35 ahead of the referendum. However, in the case of no Brexit,
sterling could recover sharply as the risk premium is being priced out. Therefore, we have
adjusted our end-2016 GBP forecasts. We have recently published a note on the impact of
various Brexit scenarios (see Macro Focus Brexit Scenarios).
We added long NOK versus euro on 19 February 2016
We have added a new high conviction call: long Norwegian krone versus the euro (short
EUR/NOK) on 19 February 2016. For a start, our energy analyst expects a recovery in oil
prices during the course of this year. This will give a boost to the sentiment for currencies of
oil exporting countries such as the Russian ruble, Mexican peso and the Norwegian krone.
Norway has relatively strong fundamentals compared to other oil exporting countries, as it has
a fiscal surplus and current account surplus. In addition, although we expect the Norges bank
to cut policy rates by 25bp in March, most of this is already reflected in the price. It is likely the
last cut in the cycle and this would be an insurance rate cut. If oil prices recover as we expect,
the Norges bank will likely become less dovish as inflation is close to target. The Norwegian
economy is more geared towards the eurozone than the US. We have already in place
positions with exposure to the US economy and to the US dollar. A new position in EUR/NOK
will therefore diversify our calls as well as an indirect position for an oil price recovery. Last but
not least, the Norwegian krone is cheap in terms of valuation. The Purchasing Power Parity
level is around 8.15 in EUR/NOK. In short, we expect the ECB to be more dovish than the
Norges bank this year and oil prices to recover. In addition, the Norwegian krone is relatively
cheap. Therefore, we enter long Norwegian krone versus euro as high conviction view. We
place our stop loss at 10.
Yens resilience to be temporary
Since the Bank of Japan (BoJ) introduced negative interest rates on 29 January 2016, the
Japanese yen (JPY) has defied gravity. A deterioration in investor sentiment pushed the yen
to 111 against the US dollar. Afterwards the yen has eased to around 114 versus the US
dollar. However, taking into account the overall improvement in sentiment, the yen has
remained relatively resilient. One would have expected a much weaker yen versus the US
dollar in the current environment. The reasons for this behaviour are a bit unclear. Therefore,
we have raised our stop loss in USD/JPY from 110 to 112.
Nevertheless, we expect the yen to weaken going forward because of an improvement in
investor sentiment, more easing by the BoJ and Japanese investors turn abroad for higher
return. Indeed, the Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF) reported that in the quarter
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4 FX Convictions Time for Draghi to deliver - 04 March 2016
ending December 2015, they have continued to reduce their holdings in domestic bonds and
increased allocations to domestic equities and foreign assets. With domestic yields under
pressure since the Bank of Japan (BoJ) introduced negative interest rates on 29 January, we
expect the GPIF and other insurers to increase their purchases or overseas assets in search
for higher yielding assets. Data from the Ministry of Finance also showed that domestic
investors have increased purchase of overseas assets in the month of February after the BoJ
introduced negative interest rates on 29 January. This will be negative for the yen as their
foreign currency exposures are not fully hedged.
GPIF investment allocation shift Outward investments from Japan have increased
% JPY bn
Source: GPIF, *FB: Foreign bonds; FS: Foreign stocks; DB: Domestic bonds; DS: Domestic stocks
Source: MoF, Japan
Both the BoJ Governor and Deputy Governor have recently stated that they are unlikely to
lower interest rates further in the next monetary policy meeting this month. This is priced in by
financial markets. However, we do not rule out that other monetary stimulus including an
enhancement of their qualitative and quantitative easing program will be announced. They are
also likely to reinforce that even lower interest rates remains on the cards. In our view, lower
deposit rates, further increase in the size of qualitative and quantitative easing program and
ETF purchases will result in an indirect weakness of the yen.
RBNZ dovish bias to weigh on NZD
We maintain our bearish view on the New Zealand dollar (NZD). The business confidence and
outlook indicators declined in February that are weaker than when the RBNZ last cut the OCR
by 25bp to 2.5% in December last year. In addition, consumer confidence and inflation
expectations have also eased lower. Furthermore, key commodity export prices remain weak
and the NZD is stronger than the RBNZs forecast by about 4%. However, we expect the
RBNZ to keep the OCR unchanged this month as the unemployment rate in the last quarter of
2015 was surprisingly better than the central banks estimate. We also suspect that the RBNZ
would want to wait for house price gains to slow further before easing again. As financial
markets are pricing in about 20% probability that the RBNZ will ease next week, a relief
recovery in the NZD is possible. However, we expect the RBNZ to strike a dovish tone next
week and signal their discomfort on the exchange rate. Upside in the NZD is likely to be
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Jap purchase foreign bonds Jap purchase foreign stocks
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5 FX Convictions Time for Draghi to deliver - 04 March 2016
limited towards 0.68. We have our stop loss in place at 0.69. A combination of further rate cuts
and intervention by the RBNZ should push the NZD towards our year-end target of 0.61.
Resilient AUD challenging our short conviction view
The strength in the Australian dollar (AUD) in the past month is challenging our short
conviction view in the AUD. Firmer iron ore prices and stronger than expected economic
growth in the last quarter of 2015 have resulted in market paring bets that the Reserve Bank
of Australia (RBA) will ease monetary policy anytime soon. The RBA has also maintained their
neutral outlook stating that the current low inflation outlook would provide scope for easier
policy if deemed necessary to support demand. On the exchange rate, the RBA stated that
the AUD has been adjusting to the evolving economic outlook. Our bearish view in the AUD
remains intact for the following reasons. First, the stronger than expected 2015 Q4 GDP
print was partly due to favourable base year effects and strong contribution from
domestic demand. We remain sceptical that the latter will persist given that the household
savings rate has declined to the lowest level since late 2008. We expect the labour market to
deteriorate further and this will weigh on consumer spending especially when wage growth is
at the weakest level since the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) compiled data in 1998.
Second, businesses investment intentions in the new fiscal year about 20% lower based on
initial estimates compiled by the ABS. Third, we do not expect the current recovery in iron ore
prices to persist. Last but not least, there is room for liquidation of long speculative futures
positions in the AUD when the RBA turns dovish in the coming months. We maintain our view
that the RBA will cut the Official Cash Rate by 25bp in May. This is not fully priced in by
financial markets. We expect the AUD/USD to decline to 0.65 by the end of this year.
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6 FX Convictions Time for Draghi to deliver - 04 March 2016
ABN AMRO major currency forecasts
Changes in red/bold
Source: ABN AMRO Group Economics
ABN AMRO emerging market currency forecasts
Changes in red/bold
Source: ABN AMRO Group Economics
03-Mar Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017
EUR/USD 1.0910 1.10 1.05 1.05 1.05 1.05 1.05 1.05 1.05
USD/JPY 113.82 116 117 118 120 122 124 122 120
EUR/JPY 124.13 128 123 124 126 128 130 128 126
GBP/USD 1.4096 1.40 1.35 1.42 1.48 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50
EUR/GBP 0.7727 0.79 0.78 0.74 0.71 0.70 0.70 0.70 0.70
USD/CHF 0.9916 1.00 1.05 1.05 1.05 1.06 1.07 1.08 1.09
EUR/CHF 1.0834 1.10 1.10 1.10 1.10 1.11 1.12 1.13 1.14
AUD/USD 0.7336 0.70 0.68 0.66 0.65 0.63 0.62 0.64 0.65
NZD/USD 0.6703 0.65 0.63 0.62 0.61 0.60 0.58 0.60 0.62
USD/CAD 1.3439 1.40 1.40 1.38 1.36 1.38 1.40 1.42 1.44
EUR/SEK 9.3672 9.50 9.50 9.50 9.50 9.25 9.00 8.75 8.50
EUR/NOK 9.4398 9.60 9.20 9.00 9.00 8.75 8.50 8.25 8.00
EUR/DKK 7.4592 7.46 7.46 7.46 7.46 7.46 7.46 7.46 7.46
03-Mar Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017
USD/CNY (onshore) 6.54 6.50 6.55 6.60 6.70 6.75 6.80 6.80 6.80
USD/CNH (offshore) 6.54 6.50 6.58 6.63 6.73 6.78 6.83 6.80 6.80
USD/INR 67.34 68 69 69 70 70 70 70 70
USD/KRW 1,215 1,200 1,230 1,250 1,260 1,260 1,270 1,270 1,270
USD/SGD 1.39 1.40 1.42 1.44 1.46 1.48 1.50 1.50 1.50
USD/THB 35.45 35.50 36.00 36.50 37.00 37.50 38.00 38.00 38.00
USD/TWD 33.06 33.40 33.80 34.20 34.50 34.70 35.00 35.00 35.00
USD/IDR 13,232 13,400 13,700 14,000 14,300 14,500 14,700 14,700 14,700
USD/RUB 74 74 72 70 68 66 64 62 60
USD/TRY 2.93 2.90 2.85 2.80 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75
USD/ZAR 15.70 15.80 15.80 15.60 15.40 15.40 15.20 15.20 15.00
EUR/PLN 4.34 4.35 4.30 4.30 4.25 4.20 4.15 4.15 4.10
EUR/CZK 27.06 27.00 27.00 27.00 27.00 26.50 26.25 26.00 25.50
EUR/HUF 309 310 310 310 305 300 300 295 290
USD/BRL 3.86 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 3.95 3.90 3.85 3.80
USD/MXN 17.93 18.75 18.50 18.25 18.00 17.75 17.50 17.25 17.00
USD/CLP 685 700 700 700 700 685 680 675 670
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7 FX Convictions Time for Draghi to deliver - 04 March 2016
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