16 June 2020 Cities In the World - OECD · The growth & increasing density of cities raise serious...
Transcript of 16 June 2020 Cities In the World - OECD · The growth & increasing density of cities raise serious...
Cities In the WorldA new Perspective on Urbanisation
16 June 2020
@OECD_local #ChampionMayors
Lamia Kamal-Chaoui | DirectorOECD Centre for Entrepreneurship, SMEs, Regions and Cities
• Two consistent, global definitions of cities and metropolitan areas
• Fills a void: no consistent existing global definitions
Harmonised definitions shed new light on urbanisation
Where do people live?
• City populations have doubled over the last 40 years and will increase from 48% to 55% of the world’s population by 2050.
What does the future hold for city and rural populations?
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1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Cities Towns & semi-dense areas Rural areas
Population (billions), 1975-2050
City populations are projected to grow from 3.5 billion in 2015 to 5 billion in 2050.
5 billion
3.5 billion
+40%
1. Determines which metropolitan areas grew and declined, and why.
2. Examines how the urban system changes with economic development.
3. Analyses differences in quality of life across different areas.
4. Assesses the changing shape of cities and its impact on service delivery and sustainable development.
Focus of Cities of the World report
Metropolitan Growth
Large metropolitan areas grow fastest
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0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
50k-250k 250k-1mil 1mil-5mil 5mil+
Annual growth - metropolitan areas (2000 – 2015)
Growth - metropolitan areas
This exacerbates challenges for:
• transport provision
• affordable housing
• pollution
Population growth is increasingly concentrated in large metropolitans.
One-fifth of metropolitan areas in the world are shrinking
decline since 2005
decline by 2050
20%
30% Looking forward
Currently
Development &Urban systems
Countries with higher GDP per capita have larger proportions of the population living in metropolitan areas.
More metropolitan population in richer countries
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10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Low-income countries Lower-middle countries Upper-middle countries High-income countries
population < 250K 250K < population < 1M 1M < population < 5M 5M < population
Share of metropolitan population
Metropolitan structure matters for within-country regional disparities:
• Regions with larger metropolitan areas tend to be richer.
• Regional income disparities are greater in middle-income countries than in the poorest and the richest countries.
Urbanisation is linked to regional economic disparities
Life in Cities
Cities offer the highest quality of life
• Evidence from 111 countries shows that city residents are more satisfied with their lives.
• This trend explains why people continue to be attracted by cities, driving urbanisation.
16%
17%
19%
% satisfied with life
Well-being
Rural areas Towns and semi-dense areas Cities
Residents in cities enjoy better living conditions:
• Fewer health problems, better access to services (digitalisation)
What explains the differences in quality of life?
15% 16%
20%
% victims of theft
Insecurity
Rural areas Towns and semi-dense areas Cities
79% 75%63%
% satisfied with air quality
Air quality
Rural areas Towns and semi-dense areas Cities
31%28%
25%
% with health problems
Health-problems
Rural areas Towns and semi-dense areas Cities
76%
82%
85%
% with recent internet use
Digitalisation
Rural areas Towns and semi-dense areas Cities
But cities also face:
• More crime and violence, urban ills (air pollution, obesity, stress)
Shape of cities and sustainable development
How do cities grow?
• Globally, cities have
continuously become
denser over the past 40
years.
• Policy-makers need to
accompany the increasing
population density with
better access to services
and affordable housing.
65% 64%71%
35% 36%29%
1975-1990 1990-2000 2000-2015
Decomposing average annual population growth in cities, 1975-2015
Densification Expansion
The growth & increasing density of cities raise serious
challenges
• The growth and
increasing density of
cities raises their
exposure to climate
change risks.
• In cities, risks associated
with sea-level rise has
been increasing.
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Cities Towns and Semi-denseAreas
Rural areas
Average population growth in areas at risk of floods, 2000-15
0-5 m above sea level not at risk
The way forward
OECD and EC setting a new benchmark for
sub-national statistics
Key instrument for urban policy and SDG
monitoring: better data for better lives
Implications for future OECD work
Important topics for future work:
Shrinking cities & managing decline smartly
Managing urbanisation with sustainable development
Specific challenges of intermediary cities
Digital and physical infrastructure investment needs in rural areas
VISIT OUR NEW REGIONAL STATISTICS HUBwww.oecd.org/regional/regional-statistics/
VISIT OUR NEW REGIONAL STATISTICS HUBwww.oecd.org/regional/regional-statistics/
THANK YOU
[email protected] | Twitter: @lamia_k_c
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