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Thai leaders doubt suitability of prince to become king
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Source: Guardian http://goo.gl/H5uaj 15/12/2010
Thai leaders harbour grave misgivings about the crown prince’s fitness to become king owing to hisreputation as a womaniser and links to a fugitive former prime minister, according to a leaked USdiplomatic cable.
Three senior members of Thailand‘s powerful privy council, a group of advisers appointed by theking, make clear their preference for an alternative to Prince Maha Vajiralongkorn, who is considered a
political liability because of his extramarital affairs in several European countries.
The succession is of pressing concern as King Bhumibol Adulyadej, who turned 83 this month, is inpoor health. Revered by most Thais, he is one of the few unifying figures in a country deeply dividedbetween an urban elite and a rural poor.
The great fear within the authorities is that with the divisive figure of the crown prince as king, anyfuture political turbulence could split Thailand in two. The military and the police rely on loyalty to the
crown to maintain control and without it their authority would be greatly weakened.
This year Thailand experienced the worst political violence in its modern history. Ninety-one peopledied as protesters who support Thaksin Shinawatra, ousted as prime minister in a 2006 military coup,
called for the dissolution of parliament and new elections. A state of emergency imposed at the time stillremains in force.
The cable, written by the US ambassador, Eric John, in January, reports on his conversations withGeneral Prem Tinsulanonda, the head of the privy council and a former prime minister, AnandPanyarachun, another former prime minister, and Air Chief Marshall Siddhi Savetsila.
“All three had quite negative comments about Crown Prince Vajiralongkorn,” the cable reads. “Whileasserting that the crown prince will become King, both Siddhi and Anand implied the country would bebetter off if other arrangements could be made. Siddhi expressed preference for Princess Sirindhorn;Anand suggested only the King would be in a position to change succession, and acknowledged a lowlikelihood of that happening.”
There are repeated references to the prince’s affairs. When the US ambassador asked where the princewas, Prem is quoted as saying: “You know his social life, how he is,” which John says is a “presumedreference to Vajiralongkorn’s preference to spend time based out of Munich with his main mistress,rather than in Thailand with his wife and son”.
John also conveys Siddhi’s observations about the prince’s dalliances. The cable states: “Siddhi, in asimilar vein, noted that the Crown Prince frequently slipped away from Thailand, and that informationabout his air hostess mistresses was widely available on websites; he lamented how his former aide, nowThai ambassador to Germany, was forced to leave Berlin for Munich often to receive Vajiralongkorn.”
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Apart from their concerns over the prince’s behaviour, the privy council members also express unease
over his ties with the fugitive ex-prime minister Thaksin, best known in the UK for owning ManchesterCity football club from 2007 to 2008. Thaksin spends most of his time in Dubai in self-imposed exile.
“Prem acknowledged Crown Prince Vajiralongkorn probably maintained some sort of relationship withfugitive former PM Thaksin, ‘seeing him from time to time’. Prem, clearly no fan of either man,
cautioned that Thaksin ran the risk of self-delusion if he thought that the Crown Prince would act as hisfriend/supporter in the future merely because of Thaksin’s monetary support; ‘he does not enjoy that sortof relationship.’”
In the cable, Anand blames the king’s poor health partly on Thaksin, who at the time was acting asa political adviser to the Cambodian government. The king was in hospital in January, exercising 30
minutes a day on a stationary bicycle and passing a medicine ball with a physical therapist to build upstrength and regain weight.
Despite their reservations about the crown prince, John’s interlocutors seemed resigned to his becoming
king.
“Anand said that he had always believed that the Crown Prince would succeed his father, according tolaw. However, there could be complicating factors – if Vajiralongkorn proved unable to stay out of politics, or avoid embarrassing financial transactions … The consensus view among many Thai was thatthe Crown Prince could not stop either, nor would he be able, at age 57, to rectify his behaviour,” thecable reads.
“After another pause, Anand added that someone really should raise the matter with the King, before
adding with regret that there really was no one who could raise such a delicate topic (note: implied wasthe need for an alternative to Vajiralongkorn).”
Royal intrigue is also conveyed in another cable by John in October 2008. This confidential messagereports on complaints by Samak Sundaravej, a former prime minister, that Queen Sirikit encouraged thecoup that overthrew Thaksin.
“He showed disdain for Queen Sirikit,” John writes, “claiming that she had been responsible for the2006 coup d’etat as well as the ongoing turmoil generated by PAD [People's Alliance for Democracy]protests. He alleged the Queen operated through privy council president Prem Tinsulanonda who, alongwith others presenting themselves as royalists, worked with the PAD and other agitators. Citing his own
regular meetings with King Bhumibol, Samak claimed he – rather than his opponents – was sincerely
loyal to the king and enjoyed the king’s support.”
What constitutes an insult?
The Thai royal family is protected by the country’s lese majesty laws, making it an offence to insult themonarchy.
Under article 112, anyone can file a complaint against someone they consider to have defamed themonarch.
Missing from the code, however, is a definition of what actions constitute defamation or insult. Neitherthe king nor any member of the royal family has ever filed any charges under this law.
In 2005, King Bhumibol encouraged criticism: “I am not afraid if the criticism concerns what I do
wrong, because then I know.” He later added: “But the king can do wrong.”
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Since 2005, use of the law has been on the rise, for politicians, journalists and activists.
In March 2007, a Swiss, Oliver Jufer, convicted of lese majesty, was sentenced to 10 years for spray-painting graffiti on portraits of the king while drunk. He was pardoned then deported.
In 2008, Jonathan Head, the BBC’s south-east Asia correspondent and vice-president of the Foreign
Correspondents’ Club of Thailand, was accused of lese majesty by a police colonel, WatanasakMungkijakarndee. Watanasak said Head’s reporting between 2006 and 2008 had “damaged and insultedthe monarchy”. The BBC rejected the charges as groundless.
Also in 2008, Harry Nicolaides, an Australian, was arrested at Bangkok’s international airport andcharged with lese majesty, for an offending passage in his self-published book Verismilitude. Afterpleading guilty, he was jailed for three years. He was deported last year after being pardoned by the
king.
In June, the Thai government, which has removed tens of thousands of web pages in recent years for
insulting the royal family, approved the creation of an online crime agency that will pursue allegedviolators of the lese majesty laws.
• The paragraph referring to Jonathan Head was amended on Thursday 16 December 2010 at 8.49am,removing a reference to him being expelled. The BBC says Head was not expelled but moved on as partof his rotation.
Thai officials worried about crown prince:
US cable
Source: http://goo.gl/iVVvj 15/12/2010
LONDON (AFP) – Top palace officials in Thailand expressed concerns about the prospect of thecrown prince becoming king, a leaked US diplomatic cable showed.
Three influential Thai figures, including two senior advisers to revered King Bhumibol Adulyadej, “hadquite negative comments about Crown Prince (Maha) Vajiralongkorn,” said the January 2010 memofrom the US embassy in Bangkok.
Two of them, while asserting that the crown prince would become king, “implied the country would be
better off if other arrangements could be made,” according to the cable, published by British daily TheGuardian, which obtained the confidential document from the WikiLeaks whistleblower website.
It cited concerns about his private life and suspected links to fugitive ex-premier Thaksin Shinawatra,who remains hugely popular with many rural poor but is seen by the establishment as corrupt and athreat to the monarchy.
King Bhumibol, the world’s longest reigning monarch, widely revered as a demi-god by many Thais,has been hospitalised since September 2009.
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The 83-year-old has no official political role but is seen as a unifying figure in a country that has been
frequently riven by political violence, particularly since the 2006 military coup which ousted Thaksinfrom office.
Any discussion of the royal family is an extremely sensitive topic in Thailand, where the palace has beensilent over the organisation of the king’s succession.
Anxiety over the king’s health sent Thailand’s stock market plunging in October 2009.
“On the two most difficult and sensitive issues of the day in Thailand — Thaksin and the monarchy —the Thai elite appear as unsure about the future as any other sector of society,” the cable said.
“The stakes are significant for all sides, and resolution of the political divide and royal succession couldstill be far over the horizon.”
Just weeks after the memo was sent Thaksin’s red-shirted supporters staged mass opposition protests in
Bangkok, sparking violence that left more than 90 people dead in a series of clashes betweendemonstrators and armed troops.
General Prem Tinsulanonda, a former premier who is head of the privy council of advisers to the palace,was “clearly no fan” of the crown prince, Bhumibol’s only son, the US cable said.
“When Ambassador (Eric John) asked where the Crown Prince was currently, in Thailand or Europe,Prem replied dismissively: ‘You know his social life, how he is’,” it added.
The memo said this was “a presumed reference to Vajiralongkorn’s preference to spend time based outof Munich… rather than in Thailand with his wife and son.”
Prem also said the prince “probably maintained some sort of relationship” with Thaksin, who lives
overseas to avoid a prison sentence for corruption and is accused by the Thai authorities of incitingunrest from overseas.
The memo also quoted Siddhi Savetsila, a retired military office and privy council member, who statedthat succession “would be a difficult transition time for Thailand.”
It said he “expressed preference” for Princess Maha Chakri Sirindhorn, who is widely respected byThais for her charitable work.
A third influential figure, former premier Anand Panyarachun, “suggested only the King would be in aposition to change succession, and acknowledged a low likelihood of that happening,” the cable added.
“Anand added that the consensus view among many Thai was that the Crown Prince could not stopeither, nor would he be able, at age 57, to rectify his behavior,” according to the memo.
Written by thaicables
December 16, 2010 at 11:01 am
Posted in Uncategorized
BANGKOK 000192 AMBASSADOR ENGAGES PRIVY
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COUNCIL CHAIR
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Monday, 25 January 2010, 07:59
S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 BANGKOK 000192SIPDISSTATE FOR EAP/MLS, NSC FOR WALTONEO 12958 DECL: 01/25/2030TAGS PREL, PGOV, THSUBJECT: THAILAND: AMBASSADOR ENGAGES PRIVY COUNCIL CHAIR
PREM, OTHER “ESTABLISHMENT” FIGURES ON YEAR AHEADREF: BANGKOK 184 (SEH DAENG)BANGKOK 00000192 001.2 OF 003
Classified By: Ambassador Eric G. John, reason 1.4 (b,d)
1. (S) Summary: Ambassador paid a series of New Year’s-related calls on influential
Thai figures,including Privy Council Chair GEN Prem, Privy Council member ACM
Siddhi, and former PM Anand,
to discuss the year ahead. Abhisit’s performance, issues related to the royal family,
and challenges posed by Thaksin/Hun Sen emerged as the primary themes. Prem
offered a more positive assessment of Abhisit’s performance than Siddhi, who
criticized Abhisit for a lack of resolve and the absence of an effective team to carry
out his policies. All three focused on the challenge posed by Thaksin to the
government and, indirectly, to the monarchy; Anand attributed part of the King’s
poor health to Thaksin, and both Prem and Siddhi were upset about Thaksin’s
alliance of convenience with Cambodian leader Hun Sen. All three had quite
negative comments about Crown Prince Vajiralongkorn. While asserting that
the Crown Prince will become King, both Siddhi and Anand implied the country
would be better off if other arrangements could be made. Siddhi expressed
preference for Princess Sirindhorn; Anand suggested only the King would
be in a position to change succession, and acknowledged a low likelihood
of that happening.
2. (S) Comment: On the two most difficult and sensitive issues of the day in
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by threatening parliamentary dissolution if they did not get in line; and telling
the Army to take action to dismiss renegade MGEN Khattiya, even if Defense
Minister Prawit refused to sign a dismissal order.
Political Year Ahead
——————–
5. (C) While GEN Prem expressed moderate concern about the potential for violence
and political discord in early 2010, he felt the situation was no worse than six
months ago. Prem asked about U.S. laws regarding demonstrations and avoiding
excessive disruptions of government functions and daily lives of citizens; Ambassador
explained the U.S. system of permits for protests which allowed for free speech but not
free access everywhere. Ambassador shared U.S. frustration about decisions negatively
affecting economic/investment climate, such as Ma Tha Phut and the digital lottery
cancellation; the uneven application of the rule of law, breaches of contract, and
regulatory shifts affected the investment climate more negatively at this point than
political turmoil.
6. (C) ACM Siddhi expressed more concerns than Prem about the security situation
in 2010, suggesting that Army Commander Anupong’s inability to control wayward
red-affiliated MGEN Khattiya’s M-79 attacks on yellow-shirt rallies and trips to
see Thaksin overseas was not a good harbinger (note: three days later, someone
attacked Anupong’s office at night with an M-79, with Khattiya widely seen as the
likely suspect, see reftel. End note). Siddhi said he had higher hopes for deputy
Commander Prayuth, widely expected to replace Anupong in October and seen as
particularly close to the Queen. Siddhi claimed Prem had sent a signal of his
displeasure with Anupong by snubbing him during a group call at Prem’s residence
to pass birthday greetings, not stopping to talk to Anupong personally as he did
with other key military commanders.
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Royal Family: King, Crown Prince, Entourages
——————————————–
7. (S) Regarding King Bhumibol’s health, Prem indicated that the King was
exercising 30 minutes a day on a stationary bicycle at Siriraj Hospital and
passing a medicine ball with a physical therapist to build up strength and
regain weight. Prem acknowledged that he had not seen the King since the
hospitalization, but that the Queen and Princess Sirindhorn saw the King
daily. When Ambassador asked about the Crown Prince’s involvement,
Prem repeated: the Queen and Sirindhorn visit him daily.
8. (S) Prem acknowledged Crown Prince Vajiralongkorn probably maintained
some sort of relationship with fugitive former PM Thaksin, “seeing him from
time to time.” Prem, clearly no fan of either man, cautioned that Thaksin ran
the risk of self-delusion if he thought that the Crown Prince would act as his
friend/supporter in the future merely because of Thaksin’s monetary support;
“he does not enjoy that sort of relationship.” When Ambassador asked where
the Crown Prince was currently, in Thailand or Europe, Prem replied
dismissively: “You know his social life, how he is.” (Note: a presumed reference
to Vajiralongkorn’s preference to spend time based out of Munich with his
main mistress, rather than in Thailand with his wife and son).
9. (S) ACM Siddhi, in a similar vein, noted that the Crown Prince frequently slipped
away from Thailand, and that information about his air hostess mistresses was
widely available on websites; he lamented how his former aide, now Thai
Ambassador to Germany, was forced to leave Berlin for Munich often to receive
Vajiralongkorn. Siddhi raised Thaksin’s controversial November Times
On-line interview, which Siddhi claimed cast the King in a bad light and
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attempted to praise the Crown Prince as broad-minded and educated abroad,
hinting that Vajiralongkorn would be ready to welcome Thaksin back to
Thailand once he became King.
10. (S) Ambassador mentioned to Siddhi the Crown Prince’s more engaging
approach in the early December King’s Birthday reception with Ambassadors,
shaking each envoy’s hand and appearing more at ease than in the 2008
reception. Siddhi stated that succession would be a difficult transition time
for Thailand. According to Palace Law, the Crown Prince would succeed
his father, but added after a pause, almost hopefully: “if the Crown Prince
were to die, anything could happen, and maybe Prathep (Sirindhorn)
could succeed.”
11. (S) Ambassador similarly raised the Crown Prince’s more confident
demeanor with former PM Anand in late December, seeking Anand’s
assessment of the dynamics in play as succession inevitably drew nearer.
Anand’s response was similar to Siddhi’s, but more detailed and blunt.
Anand said that he had always believed that the Crown Prince would succeed
his father, according to law. However, there could be complicating factors –
if Vajiralongkohn proved unable to stay out of politics, or avoid embarrassing
financial transactions. After a pause, Anand added that the consensus view
among many Thai was that the Crown Prince could not stop either, nor
would he be able, at age 57, to rectify his behavior. After another pause, Anand
added that someone really should raise the matter with the King, before adding
with regret that there really was no one who could raise such a delicate topic
(note: implied was the need for an alternative to Vajiralongkorn).
12. (S) ACM Siddhi expressed his personal concern about the declining image of
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the royal family in Thailand, noting that something as simple as excessive
motorcade-related traffic jams caused by minor royals was an unnecessary
but enduring irritant. Personal Private Secretary Arsa Sarasin had raised this
with the King about eight years ago, according to Siddhi, and the King had agreed,
authorizing Arsa to talk to royal family members and to set up new rules limiting
entourages and occasions when traffic would be stopped. Nothing had changed;
Siddhi noted that he had been caught up in traffic for 45 minutes the previous
week returning for a meeting with the Chinese Ambassador, due to a royal
motorcade. Stories that the Crown Prince now ordered second story windows
closed as his motorcade passed achieved nothing but additional popular r
esentment, Siddhi added sorrowfully.
Thaksin and Hun Sen
——————-
13. (C) Thaksin clearly remained on the mind of all three “establishment” figures.
Former PM Anand asserted that the King’s health and mood remained poor
“primarily because of Thaksin” and the challenge Thaksin posed to the stability
of the country. GEN Prem asked Ambassador what the U.S. would do in the
situation Thailand found itself, with a neighboring country appointing as an
adviser a former leader bent on bringing down the government. Ambassador
replied that while former U.S. Presidents did occasionally give paid speeches
overseas, they would never work for another government; he advised Prem and
Thai officials to take the high road in their public comments about Cambodia,
and not to be drawn into a tit for tat with Thaksin and Hun Sen. (Note: Prem
seemed to be musing out loud, but he clearly was focused on what he perceived
as a threat from Thaksin and Hun Sen’s facilitation of Thaksin’s efforts).
14. (C) ACM Siddhi said that PM Abhisit had called him on his 90th birthday
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recently and had indicated that now that Thailand was no longer ASEAN Chair,
Abhisit would feel less constrained in responding to Hun Sen’s bullying rhetoric
more freely. Siddhi expressed concern that in addition to Cambodia and Brunei,
clearly in Thaksin’s camp due to his close personal ties with Hun Sen and the
Brunei Sultan, Laos and Vietnam might back Hun Sen in the ongoing
Thai-Cambodia diplomatic spat.
15. (C) ACM Siddhi attacked Thaksin as trying to use money, red-shirt protests,
and Hun Sen to “destroy our country,” but he predicted Thaksin would not succeed.
Thaksin never had tried to negotiate, Siddhi alleged, but only issued demands;
had he been willing to come back and spend a nominal time in jail for his conviction,
Thaksin likely would have been quickly pardoned/released as a former PM. Now
Thaksin would try to create chaos, possibly sparking the use of force. While Siddhi
expected Thaksin to lose the February 26 decision on his 76 billion baht ($2.3 billion)
in frozen assets, he claimed his sources indicated Thaksin still had 240 billion baht
($7.3 billion) overseas. Rather than live overseas quietly, Thaksin had decided to
fight, funding websites attacking the King and Queen to stir up
anti-monarchy views. JOHN
Written by thaicables
December 16, 2010 at 2:24 am
Posted in Crown Prince Thailand, Secret, Thaksin
Archive of Thai Cables
December 2010
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