Earthquake emergency response scenario

simulator

Masatake Naganoh*, Masashi Taniai\ Jyun-ichi Ikeda' &

Naoki Itch"

"R&D Institute, Takenaka Corporation, 5-1,1-Chome, Ohtsuka,

Inzai, Chiba, Japan

N̂TTData Communications Systems Corporation, Toyosu

Center Bldg., 3-3, Toyosu 3-Chome, Koto-Ku, Tokyo, Japan

'-Association for the Development of Earthquake Prediction,

Chiyoda-Bldg., 1-5-18, Sarugaku-cho, Chiyoda-Ku, Tokyo, Japan

Abstract

The 1995 Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake caused immense damage and revealed thevulnerabilities of highly concentrated modern metropolises to major disasters.It was recognized that during emergencies at the time of a disaster, one of themost important factors is proper judgment and decision-making. We aredeveloping a system that simulates emergency response scenarios. It utilizes avisual imaging database to provide support for making judgments and decisionsduring the state of emergency after an earthquake disaster.

1 Introduction

The 1995 Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake in Japan, 1994 NorthridgeEarthquake in USA and other major earthquakes that have recentlystruck large metropolises have made us realize the many vulnerabilitiesof highly concentrated modern cities which have evolved as the result ofadvanced technologies, growth of societies and the functions required tosupport them. It is important for us to take the valuable experiencelearned from the Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake, analyze the problems thatwere had and put the information to practical use to reduce the level ofdisaster in similar situations in the future.

Transactions on Ecology and the Environment vol 24, © 1998 WIT Press, www.witpress.com, ISSN 1743-3541

158 Risk Analysis

Due to the infrequency of major earthquakes, it is not easy for one toconceive the amount of devastation that can occur, and it is thereforealso difficult to develop a positive attitude toward emergency responsesupport. One of the reasons is the difficulty in spotting the invisiblevulnerabilities caused by the different environment at the time anearthquake strikes. Numerous virtual experiments are inevitable to gaina better understanding of the risks and dangers of such situations.

In view of the aforementioned, we strongly recommend theconstruction of a scenario system capable of simulating varying levels

of disaster and calculating the degree of danger and emergency for eachsituation. This paper discusses the outline of such a system; theEarthquake Emergency Response Scenario Simulator.

2 Earthquake Emergency Response Problems

We discuss here the emergency response problems that came to light asa result of the Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake.

2.1 Analysis and Determination of Level of Safety within a City

Many victims of the Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake resulted from thecollapse of or damage to structures. Although many structures wereclassified as being earthquake-resistant, their construction was not ableto withstand the massive tremors. For those buildings and structuresthat did withstand the tremors, there was internal damage and the totalmalfunctioning of facilities and machinery, thus preventing efficientoffice operations. With damage to the lifeline system and destruction ofvarious facilities, it was often impossible for policemen, firemen anddoctors to reach their rescue destinations during the state of emergency.

One must be aware of the dangers involved not only in the home butother surroundings like the workplace as well, and be prepared to makean immediate response. Even if a building and its interior facilitiessuffer no apparent damage, the infrastructures that support society havelikely been damaged, and will no doubt have an affect on buildingoperations; often making normal functions impossible. We thereforebelieve that it is important to insist that proper response cannot beconducted on an individual basis. Emergency response support shouldcover vast areas if not entire cities.

2.2 Improving Emergency Response: Regions, Individuals,Organizations (Companies, Governments, Etc.)

Transactions on Ecology and the Environment vol 24, © 1998 WIT Press, www.witpress.com, ISSN 1743-3541

Risk Analysis 159

In order to evade damage when the force of an earthquake is moresevere than previously assumed, the accuracy of how individuals andorganizations respond is very important. In addition to the earthquake-resistant and disaster technologies for preventing damage, tosimultaneously minimize post-earthquake disaster, it is important toimprove the response of the core members of organizations and crisiscontrol teams. In terms of the disaster area, the way the core membersrespond has a very large impact on the consequences of the victims.

Immediately following an earthquake, the core members oforganizations and crisis control teams must judge the circumstances andmake policy decisions for proprietary emergency actions, not only insupport of the disaster area but also the perimeter regions and isolatedareas. These initial decisions have a large influence and will indicatehow the outcome evolves. It is also important to consider previouscountermeasures when deciding crisis management.

A disaster plan that supports a spreading disaster area must alsoincorporate judgments for damage to emergency organizations in thearea, as these organizations will not be able to operate normally due tothe deteriorated conditions. It is therefore important for residents andcompanies to prepare for responding to disasters as well.

Regarding the transmission of information on circumstances in thedisaster area, it is difficult to receive information even from outlyingareas. Using the limited information available, accurate circumstancesmust be deciphered and proprietary emergency responses decided. Theclarification of such circumstances results in a large influence on thefinal outcome.

The actions of the key person(s) leading an organization's responseto a crisis are of great importance. There are many decisions that mustbe made at the time of an emergency. Immediate action mustimplemented. A survey to learn the actions of government officials,executives and top management of major corporations immediatelyfollowing the Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake was taken. It was found thatthere was a tremendous increase in the amount of time for travelingfrom home to the place of work regardless of the type of transportationused. Those people who left home immediately and went to theiroffices using a personal form of transportation, arrived at theirdestinations much faster than those who used their normal forms oftransportation (e.g., driver pools). These people ended up caught intraffic jams or stopped on roads due to debris blocking the street. Inview of this fact, it is vital that main executives and core membersleading the disaster response activities of organizations take action atonce.

Transactions on Ecology and the Environment vol 24, © 1998 WIT Press, www.witpress.com, ISSN 1743-3541

160 Risk Analysis

3. Objective and Positioning of Earthquake

Disaster Response & Scenario Simulation

The first objective of this system is to improve the response capabilitiesof the main executives and leaders in command at the time of anemergency.The ability to respond and provide support in an emergency situation,

such as judgments on related circumstances, decisions and judgments onpolicies or the evaluation of initial information received from a disaster-stricken area, depends on a knowledge of daily crisis control,recognition and experience in responding to various crises, and anunderstanding of actual disaster situations. In particular, it is veryadvantageous to have experience in responding to similar disasters.Therefore, the main objective of this system is to train organizationalexecutives in precise crisis recognition for the purpose of improving theimplementation of proper disaster prevention measures.

Although risk is evaluated as a product of the probability ofoccurrence and loss, even if the probability of a large-scale earthquakeis small, the risk is great because the loss caused by damage is immense.However, when considering the matter from the point of low-frequencydisaster loss, the importance of investment in disaster preventionreceives little attention. In order to promote proper investment indisaster prevention, it is important to clarify the cause and effectrelationship of actual earthquake risk to the management oforganizations. The focus is not always the individual(s) in charge ofemergency response, but the key person(s) with a major role incommand.

Measures to prevent Yfcl Response to earthquakeand reduce damage I ̂1 disaster

Risk analysis, ^ Restoration,damage forecast 1^ I reconstruction

Fig. 1 Earthquake risk management cycle.

Transactions on Ecology and the Environment vol 24, © 1998 WIT Press, www.witpress.com, ISSN 1743-3541

Risk Analysis 161

The key person(s) must have the ability to make circumstantial

judgments, presume the scale of disasters, accurately forecasttransitional developments, make rapid policy decisions and be capableof coordinating activities. It has been indicated that the role largelyrequires experience and knowledge of disasters (e.g., actual experiences,causes and results, regional characteristics, actual conditions within theorganization, etc.), thus enabling circumstantial judgments and theestimation of developments. Key persons are expected to showleadership not only during times of emergency but in all phases ofdisaster prevention measures (Fig. 1).

4. The System: Basic Features, Construction

and Use

The purpose of this system is to enable the individual(s) in charge ofdisaster prevention in a company/government to understand the actualsituations involved during an earthquake disaster, thereby providing theknowledge required for improving the ability to respond to emergencies.Therefore, it is important for the system to have the performancecharacteristics listed below.

4.1 System Features

The core of the system is logically developed earthquake disasterscenarios and related circumstances designed for effective persuasion. Inaddition to the need to reflect related research in earthquake studies suchas seismology and earthquake-resistant technologies, a damageoccurrence mechanism and secondary developments process arerequired as a basis to provide a system capable of rational damageestimation and persuasive scenarios. The system now includes asystemized database of various data regarding earthquake disasters.

In order to ensure rational damage estimation, it is important tounderstand the characteristics of the region where the organization islocated, the disaster prevention policies of the organization and theindividual(s) in charge. To obtain this information, the surroundingenvironment of the actual area is studied, and questionnaires orinterviews are conducted to learn the characteristics of the organizationand the individual(s) in charge of disaster prevention. The datacollected is then analyzed.

To give organization/individual in charge of disaster response theactual feeling of experiencing a disaster, a life-like experience has been

Transactions on Ecology and the Environment vol 24, © 1998 WIT Press, www.witpress.com, ISSN 1743-3541

162 Risk Analysis

created by incorporating a multimedia function, which utilizes exampleimages of disasters (motion-picture clips and still photographs) to showthe estimated damage, into the scenario simulation system.

4.2 System Construction

The system is comprised of several integrated subsystems:1) The main system in which the actual scenario simulation isconducted; linked by network with outside control.2) Database system for simulation support; examples of damage(structures ,fires, etc.) and response actions (evacuation, gathering atsafety zones, rescue, etc.).3) Subsystems such as risk analysis for supporting scenariodevelopment and damage estimation system.4) Technology information database for subjects that have been clarifiedthrough simulation results.

Database

Damage examples

Response actions

• • • •

Main & SiProgram S

• Interface

jb

»ysterns

Programrendering

unit

Display(control)

Display(training)

Fig. 2 Block chart of earthquake scenario simulation system.

4.3 Distinctive Features of Prototype System

The prototype earthquake emergency response support system has thefollowing distinct features:- An integrated earthquake disaster crisis control system with a field ofvision that covers everything from earthquake disaster risk analysisand previous countermeasures to emergency response and restorationplans.

- Presented as system with human-machine interface combined withparticipation of remote terminal (control). The menu-type displayoperates so as to offer a minimum of responses by selection of ideas,and attempts to provide as little foresight as possible whilemaintaining communication with the person conducting the

Transactions on Ecology and the Environment vol 24, © 1998 WIT Press, www.witpress.com, ISSN 1743-3541

Risk Analysis 163

simulation. For screen control, the instructor requires high skill in thefield (disaster knowledge, story coordination, etc.).

- Estimation of damage circumstances provided with examples similarto the characteristics (knowledge of disaster prevention, crisismanagement system, etc.) of the organization and individual intraining. Consideration is given to lifestyle and work environment aswell.

- Multimedia function improves the level of life-like experience. Forexample, the addition of artificial voice enables the reception ofinstructions by telephone and scenes with radio news. Difficulty incommunicating by telephone is also experienced.

- The functions of each subsystem can be used separately for damageestimation, disaster prevention education and training, or support forpreparing a disaster prevention plan.

- Any step of a disaster prevention plan can be rearranged, and itseffects checked.

- Disaster prevention standards of any company can be experiencedthrough the simulated scenarios.

- Easy to find problems in disaster prevention plans using the simulatedscenarios.

4.4 Operation Procedures

The procedures for operation of the simulation are listed below.

a. Research and analvsis of client risk

b. Damaee estimation (macro/local")

c. Preoaration/Construction of scenario

d. Simulation (life-like exoerience)

e. Evaluation and analvsis of resoonse

f. Proposal for earthquake disasterresponse countermeasures

Fig. 3 Flow of earthquake emergency response management training.

Transactions on Ecology and the Environment vol 24, © 1998 WIT Press, www.witpress.com, ISSN 1743-3541

164 Risk Analysis

Evaluation of earthquakedisaster risk

Damageestimation

Previouscountermeasures

Fig. 4 Flow of earthquake scenario simulation.

4.4.1 Survey of disaster prevention characteristics and crisismanagement system of targeted companies and businesses

Using site surveys and interviews, we analyze and evaluate such itemsas site conditions (degree of earthquake activity, distribution of activefaults in the region, geography, geological features, etc.), anti-seismicperformance of the building, condition of fire prevention measures andequipment, disaster prevention plans, preparation of manuals, etc.

4.4.2 Damage estimation for residences and companies in thesurrounding area and for the region

Using the damage estimation information of the government, anestimations of overall general damage and damage to individualfacilities are prepared. The estimations include not only damage tostructures but also considerations for obstacles to the functions offacilities due to related confusion and equipment damage. If necessary,a response analysis will be performed.

4.4.3 Establishment of a scenario framework for companies andbusinesses

The required parameters (time earthquake strikes, season,meteorological conditions, etc.) for the scenario are predetermined.Based on the results of damage estimation of homes, places of work,and the surrounding area, evacuation routes are determined. A macrodamage estimation for the assumed earthquake is prepared, and thestructural characteristics of homes, places of work and the surrounding

Transactions on Ecology and the Environment vol 24, © 1998 WIT Press, www.witpress.com, ISSN 1743-3541

Risk Analysis 165

environment are taken into consideration to make an evaluation of theinitial damage.

4.4.4 Evaluation of simulation operator's characteristicsAn individual's disposition is a factor that weighs heavily on crisisresponse. Each simulation operator is interviewed before beginning ascenario, and his/her crisis management consciousness and experiencewith and knowledge of disasters are evaluated and analyzed. Theinterview with the individual is educational in nature. But at the sametime, it must be conducted carefully so as to not provide any foresight tothe simulation itself, as this might affect the individual's reactions to thesimulation and not reflect the actual situation.

4.4.5 Conducting the simulationUsing information from the estimated damage conditions, a similarscene is presented to the individual, who must then judge the situationand chose the actions for response. The simulation is controlled by aremote operator rather than letting the individual chose from a menu.The individual in training and the instructor watch the progress of thesimulation on different displays installed in distant locations.

4.4.6 Simulation evaluationEach individual is shown a variety of disaster scenarios, and anevaluation is given for the adequacy of how situations were judged andthe response actions chosen. Based on the results of the evaluation, aneducational curriculum for training and countermeasures for improvinganti-seismic performance and fire prevention are offered.

4.4.7 Simulation incorporating new conditionsAfter suggestions for improvement have been implemented or there hasbeen a change in the environmental conditions involved at the time anearthquake strikes, damage estimation and simulation are repeated toconfirm improvements in the case of the former, or to evaluate theindividual from a different perspective under new conditions in the caseof the latter.

5. Basic Model Scenario

A model scenario based on the 1995 Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake wasconstructed, and the prototype system tested for functionality andefficiency. Information on damage to structures, damage and reducedfunctionality of commuter facilities, and damage caused by fire was

Transactions on Ecology and the Environment vol 24, © 1998 WIT Press, www.witpress.com, ISSN 1743-3541

166 Risk Analysis

compiled by written survey and formed into a database of damagecircumstances. Regarding isolated support to the disaster-strickenregion (Kobe) and outlying area (Osaka) by Tokyo business activitiesand response actions, information (publicity, instructions) exchange(details, resources, media) materials, etc. were gathered by variousmeans of research (e.g., questionnaires, referencing recorded documents,and so on) and interviews with related parties.

Based on the information collected, events were systematicallyscheduled over a timeframe, and a streaming system was enabledthrough the inclusion of related events. The development of a timingsystem to track the term of emergency response completed constructionof the model scenario. A team examined possible example responses atvarious major points and added plural scenario development plots. Onconstructing a scenario, it was found that many types of judgments,response actions and choices were required.

Fig. 5 Scenario simulation concept

Transactions on Ecology and the Environment vol 24, © 1998 WIT Press, www.witpress.com, ISSN 1743-3541

Risk Analysis 167

6. Conclusion

An emergency response support system, with scenario simulation basedon examples of earthquake disasters as its core, has been developed.Although the aim of this system is to improve emergency response, it isrecognized that earthquake disaster prevention technologies such as riskevaluation, damage estimation and response forecasting must besynthesized. Plans are to promote the practical application of the systemthrough the accumulation of more disaster examples and introducinggreater diversification in scenario development.

References

[1] Great Hanshin Earthquake Disaster (southern Ryogo Prefectureearthquake) Survey Report. Vol. 1-4, Takenaka-Komuten, 1995.

[2] Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake Disaster Report 1995, SouthernRyogo Prefecture Earthquake, Asahi Newspaper Company, 1996.

[3] Intra-company Survey Reference, Nippon Telegraph and TelephoneData Communications Company Limited.

[4] Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake Disaster, Leading CorporationInterviews, Shinko Research Company, Limited, Apr. 1995.

[5] Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake Disaster Reference Collection,Non-life Insurance Rate Accountants Association, 1997.

Transactions on Ecology and the Environment vol 24, © 1998 WIT Press, www.witpress.com, ISSN 1743-3541