15783 spring 2001
Transcript of 15783 spring 2001
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
1/368
Product Design &
Development
Thomas A. Roemer (MIT-Sloan)
Matt Kressy (RISD)
Warren Seering (MITME)
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
2/368
Todays Agenda
z The Team
z Course Objectives
z Logistics & Projects
z Collaboration with Helsinki Univeof Technology
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
3/368
The Team
z Students
z LFM
z MBA
z
MOTz RISD
z Engineering
z
Undergraduatesz Graduates
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
4/368
Course Objectives
z Understand the Product Development Proce
z Learning By Doing
z Apply tools learned in class
z Apply and share existing knowledge
z Improve team work and communication skills
z Improve project management skills
Have Fun
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
5/368
Course Logistics
z Enrollment Policy
z Course Material
z Course Schedule
z Team Projects
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
6/368
Enrollment Policy
z Priority to
z Students whose proposals are selected
z Students with high preference for selected projec
z Students adding diversity
z LFM students
z No Enrollment for
z
Students not present on first or second day of cla
z
Students not prepared for class on Thursdayz Students not making a project proposal on Febru
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
7/368
Course Material
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
8/368
Required Textbook
Product Design
Development
Ulrich & Eppinge
3rd Edition,
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
9/368
Case Studies
z Harvard Business School Case 9-600-
IDEO Product Development.z Handed out in class today for free!
z Harvard Business School Case 9-695-Sweetwater.
z Download for $6.50 from Harvard Busines
Online at:
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
10/368
Course Schedule
ReadMe.PDF
Master Schedule
General Information
Syllabus
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
11/368
Team Projects
z Interdisciplinary teams (6 students)
z Continuous feedback from advisors an
z Process paced by homework assignm
z $1,000 budget per teamz Project ideas
z From each student (next Tuesday)!
z Sponsored project: General Motors
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
12/368
Project Selection Process
z Read ReadMe file (assignment docum
z Everyone makes a 50 sec proposal neTuesdayz Hand in a 1 sheet proposal by 9:00 am!
z Examples are on SloanSpace
z Projects and teams will be formed basyour preferencesz
Hand in a Project preference card by next
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
13/368
Proposal Guidelinesz Read ReadMe file (general information)
z Identify a need - Do not suggest a solution
z Choose carefully something that
z is small and manageable (
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
14/368
Project Examples
from Recent Classes
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
15/368
Band Aid Dispenser
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
16/368
Christmas Tree Stand
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
17/368
Outlet Cover
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
18/368
Rearseat Workspace
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
19/368
Laptop CableOrganizer
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
20/368
Chevy SSRCooler
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
21/368
IroningBoard
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
22/368
SugarDispens
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
23/368
Crate Sh
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
24/368
SwivelCar Seat
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
25/368
Swivel Car Seat
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
26/368
Baby Fo
Dispens
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
27/368
Media Pro
for DevelCountries
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
28/368
Research and Development
R DTechnology Product
DevelopmentDevelopme
z
Unstructured methods
z
Difficult to plan
z Unpredictable
z
Structured method
z
Generally planned
z
Predictable
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
29/368
Generic Product Development
Process
PlanningPlanning Concept
Development
Concept
DevelopmentSystem-Level
Design
System-Level
DesignDetail
Design
Detail
DesignTesting and
Refinement
Testing and
Refinement
Mission Concept System Spec Critical Design ProdApproval Review Review Review App
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
30/368
Detail Design
Project Gantt Chart
Proposals
Mission and Needs
Concepts, Sketches, Targets
Concept Refinements
Proof of Concept
Financial Model
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
31/368
Next Steps
z Read the READ-ME file !!!
z Answers almost all your questions
z Project proposals due next Tuesday
z
Required for assignment to a team
z Start thinking about project ideas
z Purchase the text
z Read Chapter 4
z Read & Prepare IDEO Case
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
32/368
Proposal Logistics (Syllabus
z Class 3
Tuesday, February 14
z Each student will give a 50 second presentation (Assignment 1b)
Assignment 1a: Proposal Handout Due: 9:00 am.
Assignment 1b: Proposal Presentation In class
Assignment 1c: Project Preferences Due: 2/17, 10:00 a
Project P
Due:
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
33/368
Proposal Guidelines
(General Information)
z There should be a demonstrable market for the product.
Identify existing products that attempt to meet the need.
Should at least be an attractive opportunity for an established firm.
High likelihood of containing fewer than 10 parts. High confidence in prototype costs being less than $1000.
The product should require no basic technological breakthroughs
You should have access to more than five potential users of the p
(more than 20 would be nice)Save any highly proprietary ideas for another context
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
34/368
Proposal Guidelines
(General Information)
Most successful projects tend to have at least one team memberpersonal interest in the target market.
It is really nice to have a connection to a commercial venture thainterested in the product.
Most products are really not very well designed.
The experience in this class is that if you pick almost any produc
the above project guidelines, you will be able to develop a producsuperior to everything currently on the market.
Just because you have used a lousy product doesn't mean that adoesn't exist. Do some thorough research to identify competitive and solutions.
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
35/368
Concept GenerationThomas A. Roemer
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
36/368
the best way to get a good
is to get a lot of ideas
Linus Pau
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
37/368
Concept Development Process
Perform Economic Analysis
Benchmark Competitive Products
Build and Test Models and Prototypes
Identify
CustomerNeeds
Establish
TargetSpecifications
Generate
ProductConcepts
Select
ProductConcept(s)
Set
FinalSpecifications
DD
Mission
Statement Test
ProductConcept(s)
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
38/368
Concept Generation Exercise:
Vegetable Peelers
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
39/368
Vegetable Peeler Exercise:
Voice of the Customer
"Carrots and potatoes are very different."
"I cut myself with this one."
"I just leave the skin on."
"I'm left-handed. I use a knife."
"This one is fast, but it takes a lot off."
"How do you peel a squash?"
"Here's a rusty one."
"This looked OK in the store "
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
40/368
Vegetable Peeler Exercise:
Key Customer Needs
1. The peeler peels a variety of produce.
2. The peeler can be used ambidextrously.3. The peeler creates minimal waste.
4. The peeler saves time.
5. The peeler is durable.
6. The peeler is easy to clean.
7. The peeler is safe to use and store.
8. The peeler is comfortable to use.
9. The peeler stays sharp or can be easily sharpened.
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
41/368
Problem Decomposition:
Function Diagram
Store
nails
Store or
acceptexternal
energy
Isolate
nail
Convert
energy totranslational
energy
Apply
translational
energy to nail
Energy
Nails
Hand-heldnailer
Energy (?)
Signal (?)
Material (nails)
Energy (?)
Signal (tool "trip")
INPUT OUTPUT
Material (driven nail)
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
42/368
External Search:
Hints for Finding Related Solutions Lead Users
benefit from improvement
innovation source Benchmarking
competitive products
Experts
technical experts
experienced customers & sales staff
Patents
search related inventions
Literature
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
43/368
Internal Search:
Hints for Generating Many Concepts
Suspend judgment
Generate a lot of ideas
Infeasible ideas are welcome Use graphical and physical media
Make analogies
Wish and wonder
Use related stimuli Use unrelated stimuli
Set quantitative goals
Use the gallery method
Trade ideas in a group
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
44/368
An Excursion to TRIZTheory of Inventive Problem
Solving
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
45/368
The first 13 (of 39) TRIZ
Metrics
1. Weight of Mov. Obj.
2. Weight of Stat. Obj.
3. Length of Mov. Obj.
4. Length of Stat. Obj.5. Area of Mov. Obj.
6. Area of Stat. Obj.
7. Volume of Mov. Obj.
8. Vol. of Stat.
9. Speed
10. Force
11. Stress12. Shape
13. Stability
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
46/368
The first 19 (of 40) TRIZ
Principles
1. Segmentation
2. Taking out3. Local quality
4. Asymmetry
5. Merging
6. Universality7. "Nested doll"
8. Anti-weight
9. Preliminary anti-action
10. Preliminary action
12.
Equipotentiality13. The other way ro
14. Spheroidality - C
15. Dynamics
16. Partial or excess
17. Another dimensio
18. Mechanical vibra
19. Periodic action
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
47/368
Child Car Seats:
Volume vs. Shape
Volume
S
hape
7, 29
METRIC
S
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
48/368
Principles 7 & 29
7: Nested Doll
Place one object inside another Pass one part through a cavity in the othe
29: Pneumatics & Hydraulics Use gas and liquid parts of an object inste
solid parts (e.g. inflatable, filled with liquidcushion)
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
49/368
Systematic Exploration:
Concept Combination TableConvert Elect rical
Energy to
Translational
Energy
Accumulate
Energy
Apply
Translation
Energy to N
rotary motor w/
transmission
linear motor
solenoid
rail gun
spring
moving mass
single imp
multiple imp
push nail
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
50/368
the best way to get a good
is to get a lot of ideas
Linus Pau
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
51/368
Team Processes
Suggestion: Assign a manager for each assi
Be inclusive of all team members. Try to meet once or twice a week.
Team meetings are for sharing results, reach
consensus, making decisions, and assigningwork.
The real work gets done outside of the mee
Many teams are meeting at noon before clas
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
52/368
Suggested Reading
TRIZ
Genrich Altschuller:And suddenly the inventor appeared
Function Analysis Kaneo Akiyama
Function Analysis
Gerhard Pahl and Wolfgang Beitz
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
53/368
Identifying Customer
NeedsThomas A. Roemer
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
54/368
Generic Product Development
Process
PlanningPlanning Concept
Development
ConceptDevelopment
System-LevelDesign
System-LevelDesign
DetailDesign
DetailDesign
Testing andRefinement
Testing andRefinement
Mission
Approval
Concept
Review
System Spec
Review
Critical Design
Review
Prod
App
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
55/368
Project Proposals
Mission &
Customer Needs
Concept Generation
& Sketches
Concept Refinement
& Schedule
Proof-of Concept
Detail Design
Financial Model
& Patent ReviewDevelop Alpha
Class Projects: Gantt Chart1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1Class
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
56/368
Concept Development Process
Perform Economic Analysis
Benchmark Competitive Products
Build and Test Models and Prototypes
IdentifyCustomer
Needs
EstablishTarget
Specifications
GenerateProduct
Concepts
SelectProduct
Concept(s)
SetFinal
SpecificationsDD
MissionStatement Test
ProductConcept(s)
PlanningPlanning Concept
Development
ConceptDevelopment System-Level
Design
System-LevelDesign Detail
Design
DetailDesign Testing and
Refinement
Testing andRefinement Production
Ramp-Up
ProductionRamp-Up
MissionAppr oval
ConceptReview
System SpecReview
Critical DesignReview
ProductionApproval
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
57/368
Customer Needs Process Define the Scope
Mission Statement
Gather Raw Data Observation Interviews Focus Groups
Interpret Raw Data Need Statements
Organize the Needs Hierarchy
Establish Importance
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
58/368
Mission Statement Product Description
An easy to use, portable device for removing bacteria and protozoan parwater
Key Business Goals Product introduced in Summer 1993 50% gross margin 30% share of portable water filter retail sales within 2 years of introductio Becoming the recognized leader in usability
Primary Market Avid outdoor enthusiasts
Secondary Markets Casual recreationalists Home emergency Aid organizations, military
Assumptions Hand-operated
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
59/368
Customer Needs Process Define the Scope
Mission Statement
Gather Raw Data Observation Interviews Focus Groups
Interpret Raw Data Need Statements
Organize the Needs Hierarchy
Establish Importance
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
60/368
Gather Raw Data
Focus Groups Interviews
Observation
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
61/368
Interviews vs. Focus Groups
One-on-One Interviews (1 hour)
Focus Groups (2 hours)
0
20
40
60
80
100
Percento
fNeedsIden
tified
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
62/368
How Many Consumers?
0
20
40
60
80
100
PercentofNeedsIdentified
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
63/368
How Many Analysts?
0
20
40
60
80
100
PercentofNeedsIdentified
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
64/368
Customer Needs Process Define the Scope
Mission Statement
Gather Raw Data Observation Interviews Focus Groups
Interpret Raw Data Need Statements
Organize the Needs Hierarchy
Establish Importance
Five Guidelines for Writing
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
65/368
Five Guidelines for Writing
Needs Statements
Guideline Customer Statement Need Statement Need St
What NotHow
Specificity
Positive
Not Negative
Product
Attribute
Why don't they put ahook at the end of theoutlet hose?
I often times drop the
water filter on rocks.
the WF is difficult tohold.
I need to attach a virus
filter to the WF.
The outlet hose has ahook to connect to watercontainers.
The WF easwater into adifferent con
The WF is rugged.The WF openormally aftdropping.
The WF is not difficult tohold.
The WF is e
A virus filter can be
attached to the WF
WF accomm
virus filter
WRONG RIG
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
66/368
Needs Translation Exercise The water should not smell badly
You need one hand to hold the filter, one handpump and one hand to make sure that that theattachment cap doesn't fall off the bottle
During a winter trip the pump once froze solid
I never want to have Giardia again
I get tired when pumping water for the entire fa
I cleaned the filter after every use, no matter hwater I pumped
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
67/368
Customer Needs Process Define the Scope
Mission Statement
Gather Raw Data Observation Interviews Focus Groups
Interpret Raw Data Need Statements
Organize the Needs Hierarchy
Establish Importance
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
68/368
Structuring Needs Primary Needs (Strategic Needs)
Secondary Needs (Tactical Needs) Tertiary Needs (Operational Needs)
Must Haves
Delighters (Latent Needs!)
Linear Satisfiers
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
69/368
Kano-DiagramsDegree of Function Implementation
Satisfaction
atisfaction
Linea
rSati
sfiers
Delighte
rs
MustHav
es
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
70/368
Structuring NeedsA tendency that
Customers sort needs more evenly
Customer ordering reflects actual use
Group ordering reflects engineering vie
Professional teams only slightly outper
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
71/368
Customer Needs Process Define the Scope
Mission Statement
Gather Raw Data Observation Interviews Focus Groups
Interpret Raw Data Need Statements
Organize the Needs Hierarchy
Establish Importance
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
72/368
Importance Surveys 5,7,9 point direct rating
How important is feature? Desirable, neutral, undesirable
Constant Sum Scale Allocating fixed number of points to need leve
Anchored Scale Attach 10 points to most important need
Up to 10 points to all others
All seem to perform equally well
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
73/368
Perceptual Map
Water
Quality
First Need
Katadyne
SweetwaterSweet Spot
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
74/368
Normalized Perceptual Map
WaterQu
alityper$
First Need
Katadyne
SweetwaterEven Sweet
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
75/368
Company Update Introduced in August 1993
1994, SW shipped ~54,000 units 1994 Revenue of $2 million
MSR (REI-owned!) enters market before SW atakes 40% of market share
US Army shows interest 1997, SW almost disappears?
1998, Cascade Design [CD] acquires SW
CD had previously (1996) bought Platypus
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
76/368
Take Aways Capture What, Not How
Meet customers in the use environment Collect visual, verbal, and textual data
Props will stimulate customer responses.
Interviews are more efficient than focus grou
Interview all stakeholders and lead users
Develop an organized list of need statement
Look for latent needs
S t tif t d ff
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
77/368
Visual Data Example
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
78/368
Structuring
Needs
PrimaryNeeds(StrategicNeeds)
Secondary
Needs
(Tactical
Needs)
Tertiary
Needs
(Operational
Needs)
MustHaves
Delighters
(Latent
Needs!)
Linear Satisfiers
K Di
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
79/368
Kano-Diagrams
Degree of Function Implementation
Satisfaction
atisfaction
Linea
rSati
sfiers
Deligh
ters
MustHav
es
St t i N d
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
80/368
StructuringNeeds
Atendencythat
Customerssortneedsmoreevenly
Customerorderingreflectsactualus
Group
ordering
reflects
engineering
P f i l t l li htl
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
81/368
Customer
Needs
Proces
Define
the
Scope
Mission
Statement
Gather
Raw
Data
Observation
Interviews
Focus
Groups
Interpret
Raw
Data
Need
Statements
Organize
the
Needs
Hierarchy
I t S
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
82/368
ImportanceSurveys
5,7,9pointdirectrating
How
important
is
feature?
Desirable,
neutral,
undesirable
ConstantSumScale
Allocating
fixed
number
of
points
to
need
Anchored
Scale
Attach
10
points
to
most
important
need
Up
to
10
points
to
all
others
P t l M
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
83/368
WaterQuality
PerceptualMap
SweetwaterSweetSpot
FirstNeed
Katadyne
N li d P t l M
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
84/368
NormalizedPerceptualM
WaterQualityper
$
First
Need
Katadyne
SweetwaterEvenSweet
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
85/368
A
Moment
In
The
Mind
oCustomerMattK.
Matt Ks Profile
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
86/368
MattK sProfile
Mattisanoutdoorenthusiasts,whofrequentlyhikesandcycles,bothalhis
family
of
four.
Being
ranked
among
the
top
10
cyclists
in
the
United
Sputsgreatemphasisonstayinghealthyandhavingtherightgear. Esperacingseason,hecannotaffordthehasslesofcontaminatedwaterand
always
carries
his
water
filter
with
him.
However,
since
his
hikes
are
mahikes, overallusageofthewaterfilterislimited.
Asasuccessfuldesignerofnewproducts,whorunshisowncompanyateaches
at
two
of
the
most
prestigious
institutions
in
the
country,
he
is
vedemandingontheproductshepurchasesandisoftenanopinionleader
internet
and
among
his
friends,
acquaintances
and
business
contacts.
Enjoyingagreatdealoffinancialfreedom,heonlypurchasesproductstimpresshim andwhosefunctionalityisattheircore.Hefavorsaircooledandoriginal LandRoversoverdesignsfrom VersaceorGraves.
In
summary
Matt
K
can
be
considered
a
typical
high
end
customer
fowith great influence among his peers
Evaluating Products
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
87/368
EvaluatingProducts
ProductsareBundlesofAttributes
Buyers
assign
Values
to
the
RealizatheseAttributes
BuyerscombineAttributeValuesto
G t P d t V l
Water Filter Example
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
88/368
WaterFilterExample
4Attributes
3
Levels
Each
Each
Level
has
a
(Part
Worth)
Utility
PumpRate Utility Weight Util
0.8
l/min
- 0.71
8
oz
4.0
1.3l/min 0.00 12oz 0.0
2.0
l/min
0.71
16
oz
-4.0
Pump Force Utility Price Util
Interpreting Utilities
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
89/368
InterpretingUtilities
Utilityof1.3l/min,5.0lbs,8oz,$40=0.00+0.33+4.05+0.33 Utilityof1.3l/min,1.5lbs,8oz,$70=0.00+1.29+4.05 - 0.62
12oz0.001.3l/min
8
oz
- 0.71
0.8
l/min
$70-1.629.0lbs
$
50
0.33
5.0
lbs
$
40
1.29
1.5
lbs
PriceUtilityPumpForce
16oz0.712.0l/min
WeightUtilityPumpRate
All
others
equal,
droppingtherequiredforce
from5.0lbsto1.5lbsis
worth
$30
!!!
AttributeImportance(Range) PumpRate: 0.71(-0.71) = 1.42 10.6%
Pump Force: 1 20 ( 1 62) = 2 82 21 3 %
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
90/368
Conjoint
Analysis
attempts
to
determine
the
relativeimportance
consumers
attach
to
thesalient
attributes
and
the
utilities
the
tt h t th l l f tt ib t
Terminology
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
91/368
Terminology
Attributes
ImportantProductCharacteristics
Power,
Brand,
Looks,
Price
Levels
QuantitiesorQualitiesofAttributes
375W,600W,780W- KitchenAid,DeLonghi,Bosch
contemporary,
traditional,
plain
- $250,
$370,
$450
Utility(ofaLevel) Numbersthatexpressthevaluecustomersplaceone
Stimulus
A t ti f d t
Example: Water Filter
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
92/368
Example:WaterFilter
AttributesandLevels
Relevant
Attributes
from
Qualitative
Re FlowRate(0.8,1.3,2.0l/min)
Required
Pumping
Force
(1.5,
5,
9
lbs)
Price
($40,
$60,
$80)
321
Levels
The Model
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
93/368
TheModel
XU)=m
a x( i=1
k
j
i
=1 ijij
U(X)
=
Overall
Utility
of
an
Alternativ
=
Utility
of
Level
j
of
Attribute
iaij ki = NumberofLevelsofAttribute
m
=
Number
of
Attributes
1 if L l j f Att ib t i i
The Model: Example
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
94/368
TheModel:Example
XU)=m
a x( i=1k
j
i
=1 ijij
321
Attributes
Levels
8060403[$]
9.0
5.0
1.5
2
[lbs]
2.01.30.81[l/m]
1,1x 1= 2,1x = 0 3,1x = 0
0 1 0
Stimuli (Profiles)
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
95/368
Stimuli(Profiles)
9
8
7
6
5
4
32
1
60
9 0
2 0
405.02.0
801.52.0
40
9.0
1.3
805.01.3
601.51.3
809.00.860
5.0
0.8
401.50.8
RatinPriceForceFlowrateProfile#
Stimuli (Profiles)
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
96/368
Stimuli(Profiles)Profile# Flowrate Force Price Ratin
1 0.8 1.5 40 3
2 0.8 5.0 60 2
3 0.8 9.0 80 1
4 1.3 1.5 60 4
5 1.3 5.0 80 2
6
1.3
9.0
40
3
7 2.0 1.5 80 4
8 2.0 5.0 40 6
9
2 0
9 0
60
4
Dummy Variable Regress
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
97/368
DummyVariableRegress
b X0
1ij
U=b+
i
m
=
k
j
i
=
1
1
ij
=
Dummy
Variable
for
Level
j
o Xij
Attribute
i
(i
=
1,,ki-1)
U
=
Estimated
Utility
b0,bij = RegressionCoefficients
Dummy Variable Regress
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
98/368
DummyVariableRegress
b X0
1ij
U=b+i
m
=
k
j
i
=
1
1
ij
=
Dummy
Variable
for
Level
j
o Xij
Attribute
i
(i
=
1,,ki-1)
U
=
Estimated
Utility
b0,bij = RegressionCoefficients
Dummy Representation of Pro
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
99/368
DummyRepresentationofPro
Profile# Flowrate[l/min] Force[lbs] Price[$] Rat
0.8 1.3 1.5 5.0 40 60
1 1 0 1 0 1 0
2
1
0
0
1
0
1
3 1 0 0 0 0 0
4 0 1 1 0 0 1
5
0
1
0
1
0
0
6
0
1
0
0
1
0
7
0
0
1
0
0
0
8 0 0 0 1 1 0
9 0 0 0 0 0 1
Calculating Utilities
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
100/368
Calculating Utilities
Price
[$]
Force
[lbs]
Flow
Rate
[l/min]
a32=?b32= 1.0060
?80
a31=?b31= 1.6740
a23=?---9.0
a22=?b22= 0.675.0
a21=?b21= 1.001.5
a13=?---2.0
a12=?
a11=?
b12= -1.671.3
b11= -2.670.8 - 2.67 is a meathe distance of0.8 to the defa
rate of 2.
Thusa1,1 a1,3= b1,
Calculating Utilities
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
101/368
Calculating Utilities
Price
[$]
Force
[lbs]
Flow
Rate
[l/min]
a32 a33= b32b32= 1.0060
?80
a31 a33= b31b31= 1.6740
a23=?---9.0
a22 a23= b22b22= 0.675.0
a21 a23= b21b21= 1.001.5
a13=?---2.0
a12- a13= b12
a11 - a13= b11
b12= -1.671.3
b11= -2.670.8
3 e2
Wmo
S
onin ut
1
Calculating Utilities
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
102/368
---
---
CalculatingUtilities
Flow
Rate
0.8 b11=-2.67 a11- a13=b11
1.3 b12=-1.67 a12- a13=b12
[l/min]2.0
a11+a12+a13=0
Force
[lbs]
1.5 b21=1.00 a21a23=b21
5.0 b22
=0.67 a22a23=b22
9.0
a21+a22+a23=0
Price
[$]
40 b31=1.67 a31a33=b31
60 b32
=1.00 a32a33=b32
80 0
Calculating Utilities
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
103/368
---
---
CalculatingUtilities
Flow
Rate
0.8 b11=-2.67 a11- a13=b11 a11=
1.3 b12=-1.67 a12- a13=b12 a12=
[l/min]2.0
a11+a12+a13=0 a13=
Force
[lbs]
1.5 b21=1.00 a21a23=b21 a21=
5.0 b22
=0.67 a22a23=b22 a22=
9.0
a21+a22+a23=0 a23=
Price
[$]
40 b31=1.67 a31a33=b31 a31=
60 b32
=1.00 a32a33=b32 a32=
80 0
Part Worth Utilities
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
104/368
PartWorthUtilities
Flow
Rate
0.8 a11=-1.22
1.3 a12=-0.22
[l/min]
2.0
a13=1.44
Force
[lbs]
1.5 a21=0.44
5.0 a22=0.11
9.0 a23=-0.56
Price
[$]
40 a31=0.78
60 a32=0.11
80
0 2 4 6 8
Part-Worth
Utilities
-1.50
-1.00
-0.50
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
0.5 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.7
Flow
Rate
[l/min]
PartWorthUtilities
-1.50
-1.00
-0.50
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
RequiredForce[lbs]
Part
Worth
Utilities
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
AttributeImportance
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
105/368
p
Range
Flow
Rate
[l/min]
0.8 a11=-1.22
1.44+1.22=2.671.3
a12=-0.22
2.0 a13=1.44
Force
[lbs]
1.5 a21=0.44
0.11+0.56=0.675.0 a22=0.11
9.0 a23=-0.56
40 a31=0.78
AttributeImportance
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
106/368
pRange Weigh
Flow
Rate[l/min]
0.8 a11=-1.22
1.44+1.22=2.67 2.67/5=5
1.3a12=-0.22
2.0 a13=1.44
Force
[lbs]
1.5 a21=0.44
0.11+0.56=0.67 0.67/5=15.0
a22=0.11
9.0 a23=-0.56
Price
$
40 a31=0.78
0 78 0 89 1 67 1 67/5 30 11
Utilities
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
107/368
Flow
Rate
0.8 a11=-1.22
1.3 a12=-0.22
[l/min]
2.0
a13=1.44
Force
[lbs]
1.5 a21=0.44
5.0 a22=0.11
9.0
a23=-0.56
Price
[$]
40 a31=0.78
60 a32=0.11
XU)=m
( i=1
UtilitiesforALLDesign
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
108/368
g
1
1
1
1
2
1
1
1
3 1 1 1
4
1
1
1
5 1 1 16 1 1 17 1 1 18 1 1 19 1 1 1
1 1 11 1 11 1 1
1
1
1
1 1 11
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
Feature
0.8
l/m
1.3
l/m
2
l/m
1.5
lbs
5
lbs
9
lbs
$40
$60
$80Part
Utilities
-1.22
-0.22
1.44
0.44
0.11
-0.56
0.78
0.11
-0.8Designs
101112
13
1415
16
17
18
19
20
21
UtilitiesforALLDesign
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
109/368
gFeature
Part
Utilities
Designs
19
22
20
25
23
10
21
26
1324
11
1
16
27
14
4212177
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1 1 1
1 1 11
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1 1 11 1 1
1 1 11 1 1
1 1 1
0.8l/m 1.3l/m 2l/m 1.5lbs 5lbs 9lbs $40 $60 $80-1.22
-0.22
1.44
0.44
0.11
-0.56
0.78
0.11
-0.89
UtilitiesofTopDesigns
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
110/368
113
15
p g
111
111
12
112
111
111
111
21
10
20
22
19
Designs
-0.80.11
0.78
-0.56
0.11
0.44
1.44
-0.22
-1.22
PartUtilities
$80$60$409lbs5lbs1.5lbs2l/m1.3l/m0.8l/mFeature
9.0lbsat$40hasthesameutilityas5.0lbsat$60
UtilitiesofTopDesigns
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
111/368
111
p g
12
111
111
111
111
111
111
10
23
25
20
22
19
Designs
-0.80.11
0.78
-0.56
0.11
0.44
1.44
-0.22
-1.22
PartUtilities
$80$60$409lbs5lbs1.5lbs2l/m1.3l/m0.8l/mFeature
9.0lbsat$60hasthesameutilityas
UtilitiesofTopDesigns
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
112/368
111
110
p g
12
11
111
111
111
111
111
23
25
20
22
19
Designs
-0.80.11
0.78
-0.56
0.11
0.44
1.44
-0.22
-1.22
PartUtilities
$80$60$409lbs5lbs1.5lbs2l/m1.3l/m0.8l/mFeature
1.3l/minat$40hasthesameutilityas2.0l/minat$80
ApplicationsforConjointAna
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
113/368
Product
or
Service
Optimization
CustomerTrade-Offs
Market
Share
of
Different
Designs
Segmentation
IdentificationofCustomerGroups ClusterAnalysis
Product
Line
Optimization
Cannibalization
of
Existing
Products
Attribute
Importance
Measurement
Caveats:SpecialEffect
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
114/368
Interactions Chocolate(good)+Oysters(good)=BAD
AlternativeSpecificEffects
Interactions
Alternativespecificranges 18hourstraveltime:Sydneygood,Miamibad
AlternativespecificOccurrences
Bus
vs.
Car:
Waiting,
no
waiting CrossEffects
LexusEntry:ReductionofUtilityofMercedesvs.Kia
AttributeUtilities
TypesofConjointAnalys
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
115/368
Distinguished
by:
Experimental
Design,
Stimulus,
Statistical
Analysis,
Simulation
Modeling
Traditional
Full
Profile
Conjoint
Analysis
Poor
Mans
Choice
No
Special
Software
Needed
No
Special
Effects
(Interaction
Possible)
DOE
Catalogues
Limited
Number
of
Profiles
AdaptiveConjointAnalysis(ACA) PractitionersChoice
Fully
Software
Controlled
GeneratesPairedComparisons
Up
to
30
Attributes
No
Special
Effects
Choice-Based
Conjoint
Analysis
Academics
Choice
Concurrent
Design
of
Choice
Sets
and
Profiles
Availability
Experiments
Cross
Effects
Best/Worst
Conjoint
Analysis
ChoiceWithinaProfile
AttributeUtility
Partial
Profile
Choice
Experiments
(PPCE)
NextTuesday
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
116/368
FirstTeamHomeworkDueinClass
Mission
Statement,
List
of
Structured
Customer
Needs,
Process
Report,
OrigProposal
Sheet
CombineHomeworkinPowerPoint
You
may
be
ask
to
present
you
work
in
Hand
In
THREE
Hardcopies
CompanyUpdate
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
117/368
IntroducedinAugust1993
1994,
SW
shipped
~54,000
units
1994
Revenue
of
$2
million
MSR
(REI-owned!)
enters
market
before
Stakes
40%
of
market
share
US
Army
shows
interest
1997,SWalmostdisappears?
1998,
Cascade
Design
[CD]
acquires
SW
TakeAways
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
118/368
Capture
What,
Not
How
Meet
customers
in
the
use
environment
Collect
visual,
verbal,
and
textual
data
Props
will
stimulate
customer
responses.
Interviews
are
more
efficient
than
focus
g
Interview
all
stakeholders
and
lead
users
Develop
an
organized
list
of
need
statem
Look
for
latent
needs
Class6_ID_Lecture_2006_t.log%%[ ProductName: Distiller ]%%%%[Page: 1]%%%%[Page: 2]%%%%[Page: 3]%%%%[Page: 4]%%
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
119/368
%%[Page: 5]%%%%[Page: 6]%%%%[Page: 7]%%%%[Page: 8]%%%%[Page: 9]%%%%[Page: 10]%%%%[ Error: ioerror; OffendingCommand: imageDistiller; ErrorInfo: DCTDecodeFilterSource error or end in scan 0 8x8 block 4329 ]%%
Stack:-dict
%%[ Flushing: rest of job (to end-of-file) will be ignored ]%%%%[ Warning: PostScript error. No PDF file produced. ] %%
Allison Rae
Paramount Industries
Rhode Island School of DesignID 87
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
120/368
Prototyping Overview
Prototypingfor Mechanical Parts
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
121/368
Paramount Industries
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
122/368
Started as prototyping vendor,then added:
Industrial Design
Product Engineering
Product verification
Breadboard models
Computer Animations
Graphic Design
Rapid Pro totyping
Chart- 3D data required Common usesMaterial
Description
Cost for Ball
Tray
Delivery for
Ball Tray Tolerance
SLAStereo Lithography Apparatus liquid
photopolymer
$
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
123/368
standard appearance models,casting masters
rigid $300 2 days +/-.002+/-.005
flex resin more durable
appearance models
flexible $300 2 days +/-.002
+/-.005
SLSSelective Laser Sintering thermoplastic
powder
Nylon living hinges, snap fits,functional models nylon,polyamide $250 2 days +/-.007
Glass Filled Nylon extremely durable 33% glass filled $250 2 days +/-.007
Somos, elastomeric soft touch parts like Santoprene $200 2 days +/-.007
Castform investment cast
masters
styrene/wax $300 4 days +/-.007
FDM,Fuse Deposition Modeling modeling
filamentABS replicate ABS thermoplastic $250 2days +/-.005
+/-.010Polycarbonate replicate PolyCarb thermoplastic $250 2 days +/-.005
+/-.010
ZCorp form study models,
colors available
starch $150 2 days +/-.005
+/-.010
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
124/368
Other PrototypingMethods Common uses Benefits Input/ Process Delivery ToleranceFabrication
h d d d l f t d d l hi t ki k t h t l it d d
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
125/368
hand made models form study models, waxmodels, breadboard
models,LooksLike/WorksLike
models
achieve geometrytoo complex for
3D CAD, multiplematerials
napkin sketch topart drawings
complexitydependant
as needed
Urethane CastingsSilicone RTV Molds, casturethane resins
sales samples, LL/WLmodels,
replicatesproduction, fast,
inexpensive, color
pattern/ castsilicone
1-2 weeks +/- .001-.100 in/in
ThermoformingSheet thermoplastics wall thickness housings,
blister packagingquick, molds and
produce manyarts
pattern or mold .5-2 weeks +/-.010- .060
Investment Castingmetal cast process engineering check models production
materialspattern 2-4 weeks material
dependant
CNC MachiningComputer numeric controlledmachining
engineering check models,strong parts
productionmaterials
part drawings, 3Ddata
geometrydependant
limitless
Wax Sculpting
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
126/368
Fabricated Model
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
127/368
Cast Urethane Sample
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
128/368
Vacuum Forming
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
129/368
Investment Casting
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
130/368
1. Wax Pattern is created (positive)
2. Pattern is dipped in ceramic slurry athen fine sand
3. Assembly is de-waxed by applying h
4. Molten metal is poured into shell
CNC Mach
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
131/368
Prototype Tooling Uses Benefits Input/ Process Delivery ToleranceAluminum test production
materials and part
geometry
faster and less
expensive than
production
tooling
2D, 3D data,
Pattern/ CNC
EDM,
pantograph
1-10 weeks +/- .002 in/in
Pre-Hard Steel (P-20) same as aluminum, same as 2D, 3D data, 1-10 weeks production
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
132/368
Pre Hard Steel (P 20) same as aluminum,longer tool life, more
complex tools, wider
range of materials
same asaluminum
2D, 3D data,Pattern/ CNC
EDM,
pantograph
1 10 weeks production
Production Tooling Uses Benefits Input/ Process Delivery ToleranceHardened Steel, Multi Cavity all materials large quantities,
lower part cost
2D, 3D data,
Pattern/ CNC,
EDM,
pantograph
complexity
dependant
production
PrototypeTooling
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
133/368
Prototype ToolingAluminum or Pre-hardened Steel
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
134/368
Process, machined, EDM
Tool Life: 12 - 250,000
Benefits: Low volume production
High accuracy
Most Thermoplastics Delivery: 4-6 weeks
Types of ModelsFoam Study Model
ConceptF ti l b d b d f
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
135/368
Functional, bread boards, form
Looks like modelPhotography, presentations
Looks like/ works likeSales samples, market testing
Tooling patterns
Engineering check modelsConfirm geometry,
test production materials,
prove function
Concept Models Purpose; Study scale, develop form, explo
ergonomics
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
136/368
ergonomics
Input; Sketches, verbal description, 3D da
Process and materials; Hand build, foam, insulation or urethane, foam
cannibalize existing products
Rapid prototyping, Z Corp, SLS, SLA
Machining, block, tube and sheet stock
Tolerances; Not important
Quantity; Usually ONE
Concept Model
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
137/368
Handmade foam model to explore form
Concept Breadboard M
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
138/368
Looks Like Model (LL Model) Purpose, aesthetic
Shows surface finish; color, clear parts, labels, tac
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
139/368
Purpose, same as above including functiona Draft included only as it effects the performance.
Cored for function only.
Materials used to replicate production material per
Includes batteries, electronics, springs, LEDs . Process and materials.
Rapid prototypes, SLS, SLA.
Castings/ urethane, silicone.
Looks Like/ Work Like Mode
Looks Like/ Works Lik
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
140/368
SLA master RTV Mold, Cast Urethane
LooksLike/WorksLike
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
141/368
Tooling Pattern
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
142/368
Engineering Models
Purpose confirm geometry, test productiomaterials review function
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
143/368
Purpose, confirm geometry, test productiomaterials, review function
Input, 3D data, detailed part drawings
Process and materials Rapid prototyping/ SLS, FDM, SLA
CNC or machined/ production materials
Prototype molds/ production materials Tolerances, critical
Quantity, usually ONE
Engineering Model
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
144/368
Engineering Model
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
145/368
Rapid Prototype, SLS Glass Filled Nylon
Prototype Molded Part
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
146/368
Aluminum Prototype Injection Mold
Qualifying your prototypingneeds
What type of model do you need?
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
147/368
What type of model do you need?
What type of input do you have?
sketches, control drawings, 3D data Is the production material required?
What are the tolerances?
How many do you need? When do you need it?
PD Efficiency
The right questions will improve PD effic
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
148/368
g q p Identify risk in your project
Formulate questions, that if answered, will
reduce/eliminate risk
Use models/prototypes to get the answers
Target individual questions at first.
Repeat as necessary.
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
149/368
Concept Selection
Product Development Process
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
150/368
PlanningPlanning Concept
Development
Concept
DevelopmentSystem-Level
Design
System-Level
DesignDetail
Design
Detail
DesignTesting and
Refinement
Testing and
Refinement
Mission Concept System Spec Critical Design Prod
Approval Review Review Review App
Concept Development Process
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
151/368
Identify
(s)
Final
Mission
(s)
Customer
Needs
Establish
Target
Specifications
Generate
Product
Concepts
Select
Product
Concept
Set
Specifications
D
D
Statement Test
Product
Concept
Perform Economic Analysis
Benchmark Competitive Products
Build and Test Models and Prototypes
Concept Development Funn
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
152/368
Concept Development Funn
concept generation
Concept Selection Processz Prepare the Matrix
z Criteria
R f C t
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
153/368
z Reference Conceptz
Weightingsz Rate Concepts
z Scale (+ 0) or (15)z
Compare to Reference Concept or Valuesz Rank Concepts
z Sum Weighted Scores
z
Combine and Improve
z Remove Bad Featuresz
Combine Good Qualitiesz Select Best Concept
z May Be More than One
Selection Process Outcomes
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
154/368
z Team Consensus on Superior Concept
z Green Light
z Everyone On Board
z Conditional Consensus
z
More Information on some Criteria
z Market or Technical Feedback
z
Consensus on Disagreement
z No Consensus
z Criteria not Understood
Example: Concept Screening
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
155/368
CONCEPT VARIANTS
SELECTIONCRITERIA A B C D E F
Ease of Handling 0 0 0 0 Ease of Use 0 0 0 + Number Readability 0 0 + 0 + 0 Dose Metering + + + + + 0
Load Handling 0 0 0 0 0 + Manufacturing Ease + 0 0 Portability + + 0
PLUSES 3 2 2 1 2 2
SAMES 4 3 1 5 5 2
MINUSES 0 2 4 1 0 3
Example: Concept Scoring
Concepts
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
156/368
Concepts
A E
Master Cylinder Lever Stop Swash Ring
Selection Criteria Weight RatingWeighted
Score RatingWeighted
Score RatingWeighted
Score
Ease of Handling 5% 3 0.15 3 0.15 4 0.2
Ease of Use 15% 3 0.45 4 0.6 4 0.6
Readability of Settings 10% 2 0.2 3 0.3 5 0.5
Dose Metering Accuracy 25% 3 0.75 3 0.75 2 0.5
Durability 15% 2 0.3 5 0.75 4 0.6
Ease of Manufacture 20% 3 0.6 3 0.6 2 0.4
Portability 10% 3 0.3 3 0.3 3 0.3
Total Score
(reference)
2.75 3.45 3.10
DF
Concept Selection Exercise:
Mechanical Pencils
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
157/368
Retail Prices of Five Pencils
$
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
158/368
z Classic $ 13.26
z Side Fox $ 2.55
z Retro $ 0.93
z Plasma $ 6.55
z Flex Fit $ 4.85
Remember
Th l f t l ti i t t
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
159/368
The goal of concept selection is not to
z Select the best concept.
The goal of concept selection is to
z Develop the best concept.
So remember to combine and refine the
Caveats
Beware of the best "average" product.
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
160/368
g p
Perform concept selection for each differentcustomer group and compare results.
Check sensitivity of selection to the importaweightings and ratings.
May want to use all of detailed requirementsfinal stages of selection.
Note features which can be applied to otherconcepts.
Next Week
T d T 1 t 5
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
161/368
z Tuesday: Teams 1 to 5
z No Class for Teams 6 to 9
z Use this time for team meeting!
z
Thursday: Teams 1 to 9
z Use this time for team meeting!
z No Class for Teams 1 to 5
PD EfficiencyThe right questions will improve PD efficiency
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
162/368
z Identify risk in your project
z Formulate questions, that if answered, will reduce/
riskz Use models/prototypes to get the answers
z Target individual questions at first.
Repeat as necessary.
Can use other tools to answer questions.
Further Reading
St t P h
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
163/368
z Stuart PughTotal Design
D i E l tiDesign E al atio
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
164/368
Design EvaluatioDesign Evaluatio
Demand ForecastiDemand Forecasti
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
165/368
The art of prophecy is very difficuThe art of prophecy is very difficu
especially with respect to the futuespecially with respect to the futur
Mark TwMark Tw
40% of New Products 40% of New Products
No Basic Need for ProductNo Basic Need for Product
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
166/368
Overall Product Does Not Meet NeOverall Product Does Not Meet Ne
Idea Not Properly CommunicatedIdea Not Properly Communicated
Mortality of New Product Mortality of New Product IThe Decay CurveThe Decay Curve
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
167/368
Num
berOfIdea
s
What it takesWhat it takes
A system or process to weed out A system or process to weed out
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
168/368
An understanding of how innovatAn understanding of how innovatembracedembraced
Product Adoption PatteProduct Adoption Patte
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
169/368
LateMa
jority34%
Lagg
EarlyMajority3
4%
Early Adopters
13.5%
Innovators
2.5%
Early AdoptersEarly Adopters
Hi Education, Income, Status, LiteHi Education, Income, Status, Lite
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
170/368
Empathy, Less Dogmatic, Ability toEmpathy, Less Dogmatic, Ability to
Rational, Intelligent, Able to Cope Rational, Intelligent, Able to Cope Aspiration, Positive Attitude to ScieAspiration, Positive Attitude to Scie
Social Participation, Media ExposuSocial Participation, Media ExposuInformationInformation
Innovation vs. ImitatiInnovation vs. Imitati
Innovators are not influenced by wInnovators are not influenced by w
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
171/368
already has boughtalready has bought
Imitators become more likely to puImitators become more likely to pu
with more previous buyerswith more previous buyers
Probability of Purchase byProbability of Purchase byAdaptor in PeriodAdaptor in Period tt
Probabil ity of Purchase
without influence by adopter
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
172/368
MKqp t+
without influence by adopter
Prob
throuAdop
periodbeforeadoptersofnumberCumulative
SizeMarket
=
=
tK
M
t
The Bass ModelThe Bass Model
Imitation Effect or Internal Influe
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
173/368
( ) ( ) t
ttt
M
KqpKM
M
KqKMpQ
+=+=
Innovation Effect or External Influence
periodbeforeadoptersofnumberCumulative
SizeMarket
periodduringadoptersofNumber
=
=
=
tK
M
tQt
Cumulative Sales for DiffeCumulative Sales for Diffep,qp,qParametersParameters
100%
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
174/368
20%
40%
60%
80%
p = 0.5, q
p = 0.1, q
p = 0.01, q
p = 0.001, q Market
Penetratio
n
Cumulative Sales for DiffeCumulative Sales for Diffep,qp,qParametersParameters
50%
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
175/368
10%
20%
30%
40% p = 0.5, q
p = 0.1, q
p = 0.01, q
p = 0.001, q
Market
Penetratio
n
Diffusion Curve For RefrigeDiffusion Curve For Refrige19261926--19791979
100%
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
176/368
20%
40%
60%
80%
p = 0.025, q
Market
Penetratio
n
Diffusion Curve For CalculDiffusion Curve For Calcul19731973--19791979
100%
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
177/368
20%
40%
60%
80%
p = 0.143, q =Market
Penetratio
n
Diffusion Curve For PowerDiffusion Curve For PowerBlowers, 1986Blowers, 1986--19961996
100%
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
178/368
Market
Penetratio
n
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
p = 0.013, q = 0.315
Diffusion Curve For Cell PhDiffusion Curve For Cell Ph19861986--19961996
100%
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
179/368
20%
40%
60%
80%
p = 0.008, q = 0.421
Market
Penetratio
n
Example: Satellite RaExample: Satellite Rad
Roughly 160 million potential listenersRoughly 160 million potential listeners
Ph S (6 000)Phone Survey (6 000)
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
180/368
Phone Survey (6,000)Phone Survey (6,000)
96 million not willing to pay fee96 million not willing to pay fee Interested, given costs [million]Interested, given costs [million]
Subscription Price [$]
Radio [$] 12 10 8 5400 23.7 27.4 27.5 27.6
300 24.8 28.5 28.7 28.9
250 26.6 30.7 31.2 31.8
Analog ProductsAnalog Products
Product p q
Portable CD Player 0 0065 0 66
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
181/368
Portable CD Player 0.0065 0.66
Auto Radio 0.0161 0.41
Cellular Phone 0.008 0.42Source: E. Ofek, HBS 9-505-062, 2005
Factors For Assessing AnalogiesFactors For Assessing Analogies Product CharacteristicsProduct Characteristics
Market StructureMarket Structure
Deriving M, p, & q from Deriving M, p, & q from
( ) ( ) ( )
( )
KMMKqpKM
MKqKMpQ
q
tt
tt
tt
2
+=+=
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
182/368
( )
c
acbbM
mcq
Map
cKbKa
KKpqpM
tt
tM
q
t
2
42
2
2
=
=
=
+=
+=
Compute a, b, and cwith OrdinaryLeast Square Regression, givenactual sales data
Commercial SoftwareCommercial Software
Limits of the Bass MoLimits of the Bass Mo
Static market potentialStatic market potential Static geographic boundariesStatic geographic boundaries
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
183/368
Static geographic boundariesStatic geographic boundaries
Independence of other innovationsIndependence of other innovations SimpleSimplenot adopt to adoptnot adopt to adoptframeworframewor
Limitless supplyLimitless supply
No repeat or replacement salesNo repeat or replacement sales Individual decision process neglectedIndividual decision process neglected
DeterministicDeterministic
RogerRogers Five Factorss Five Factors
Relative AdvantageRelative Advantage Product performance relative to incumbentProduct performance relative to incumbent
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
184/368
Product performance relative to incumbentProduct performance relative to incumbent
CompatibilityCompatibility Consistency with existing values/experiencConsistency with existing values/experienc
ComplexityComplexity
Ease of UseEase of Use TriabilityTriability
Possibility to experiment with productPossibility to experiment with product
Example:Example: SegwaySegway
Relative AdvantageRelative Advantage
C tibilitC tibilit
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
185/368
CompatibilityCompatibility
ComplexityComplexity
TriabilityTriability
ObservabilityObservability
Example: ViagraExample: Viagra
Relative AdvantageRelative Advantage
C tibilitC tibilit
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
186/368
CompatibilityCompatibility
ComplexityComplexity
TriabilityTriability
ObservabilityObservability
AA--TT--AA--RR
AAwarenesswareness
Who is aware of the product?Who is aware of the product?
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
187/368
Who is aware of the product?Who is aware of the product?
TTrialrial Who wants to try the product?Who wants to try the product?
AAvailabilityvailability Who has access to the product?Who has access to the product?
The AThe A--TT--AA--R ModeR Model
Units Sold = Market PotentialUnits Sold = Market Potential
* Pe centage a a e* Percentage aware
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
188/368
* Percentage aware* Percentage aware
* Percent who try* Percent who try
* Percent who have a* Percent who have a
* Percent who will re* Percent who will re
* Number of repeats * Number of repeats
Sources for ASources for A--TT--AA--R DR D
Sources for Data
A-T-A-RD
BasicM k
Concept Product Compon
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
189/368
Data MarketResearch
ConceptTest
ProductUse Test
o po
Testin
Market size Best Helpful Helpful
Awareness* Helpful Helpful Best
Trial Helpful Best
Availability Helpful
Repeat Helpful Helpful Best
Concept TestConcept Test(non tangible product)(non tangible product)
Weed out poor ideasWeed out poor ideas
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
190/368
Gauge Intention to purchaseGauge Intention to purchase
(Definitely (not), Probably (not), Perhaps)(Definitely (not), Probably (not), Perhaps) Respondents typicallyRespondents typically overstateoverstate their willingness totheir willingness to
Rule of thumb, multiply the percentage respondingRule of thumb, multiply the percentage responding
Definitely would purchase byDefinitely would purchase by 0.40.4
Probably would purchase byProbably would purchase by 0.20.2
Add up: The result is the % for trialAdd up: The result is the % for trial
Product Use TestProduct Use Test((tangibletangibleproduct)product)
Use under normal operating conditionsUse under normal operating conditions LearningLearning
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
191/368
gg PrePre--use reaction (shape, color, smelluse reaction (shape, color, smell))
Ease of use, bugs, complexityEase of use, bugs, complexity
DiagnosisDiagnosis
Beta testingBeta testing Short term use tests with selected customeShort term use tests with selected custome
Does itDoes it worwor??
Market TestMarket Test
Test productTest product andand marketing planmarketing plan
Test MarketingTest Marketing
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
192/368
Test MarketingTest Marketing
Limited Geographies (waning importance)Limited Geographies (waning importance) Pseudo Sale, Controlled Sale, Full SalePseudo Sale, Controlled Sale, Full Sale
Speculative SaleSpeculative Sale
Full pitch with all conditionsFull pitch with all conditions
Simulated Test MarketSimulated Test Market
Additional ReadingAdditional Reading
E. Rogers:E. Rogers:Diffusion of InnovationsDiffusion of Innovations,, 55thth Edition, 2003Edition, 2003
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
193/368
G. A. Moore:G. A. Moore: Crossing the ChasmCrossing the Chasm 33rdrd Edition 2002Edition 2002
M. Crawford & A. DiM. Crawford & A. Di BenedettoBenedetto,,
New Products ManagementNew Products Management,, 77thth Edition, 2003Edition, 2003
GG LilienLilien PP KotlerKotler & K S& K S MoorthyMoorthy
TomorrowTomorrow
Industry Leaders in Technology anIndustry Leaders in Technology anManagement LectureManagement Lecture
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
194/368
Management LectureManagement Lecture
James DysonJames Dyson
Next ThursdayNext Thursday
Simon Pitts from Ford Motor ComSimon Pitts from Ford Motor Com
Professional BehaviorProfessional Behavior
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
195/368
Professional BehaviorProfessional Behavior
Please be on Time!!!Please be on Time!!!
No TAs on siteNo TAs on site
Tools & Trends iTools & Trends i
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
196/368
oo s & e ds
Product DevelopmProduct Developm
Percent of Current Sales ConPercent of Current Sales Conby New Productsby New Products
60%
70%
High Tech All Firms Low Tech
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
197/368
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Decay CurveDecay Curve
80
90
100
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
198/368
20
30
40
50
60
70
1990
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
199/368
Design ProcesseDesign Processe
NPD Processes in Use in tNPD Processes in Use in t
Other
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
200/368
Informal
Stage Gate
Facilitated Stage Gate
Functional, sequential
3rd Gen. Stage Gate
1
STAGE GATE PROCESSES 56 %
Process TasksProcess Tasks
Product Line PlanningProduct Line Planning Portfolio, CompetitionPortfolio, Competition
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
201/368
o o o, Co pe o, p
Strategy DevelopmentStrategy Development Target Market, Needs, AttractivenessTarget Market, Needs, Attractiveness
Idea/Concept GenerationIdea/Concept Generation Opportunities and SolutionsOpportunities and Solutions
Process TasksProcess Tasks
Business AnalysisBusiness Analysis Business Case, Development ContractBusiness Case, Development Contract
D l tD l t
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
202/368
DevelopmentDevelopment Convert Concept into Working ProductConvert Concept into Working Product
Test & ValidationTest & Validation Product Use, MarketProduct Use, Market
Manufacturing DevelopmentManufacturing Development Developing and Piloting Manufacturing ProDeveloping and Piloting Manufacturing Pro
Tasks Included in ProceTasks Included in Proce
Manufacturing Development
Commercilization
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
203/368
Project Strategy
Screening
Business Analysis
Idea Generation
Development
Test & Validation
Projects Completing TaProjects Completing Ta
Manufacturing Development
Commercialization
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
204/368
Project Strategy
Screening
Business Analysis
Idea Generat ion
Development
Test & Validation
Average Time Spent on Average Time Spent on
Project Strategy
Product Line Planning
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
205/368
Manufacturing Development
Business Analysis
Screening
Test & Validation
Development
Idea Generation
Percentage of Projects UPercentage of Projects UMultifunctional TeamsMultifunctional Teams
New-to-World
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
206/368
Repositioning
New-to-Firm
Cost Reduction
Major Revision
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
207/368
ToolsTools
Perceived Importance and Perceived Importance and Marketing Research ToMarketing Research To
5
Voice of Customer
Importa
Degree
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
208/368
0
1
2
3
4
Customer Site Vi
Concept TeTest Markets
Pre-Test Markets
Perceived Importance and Perceived Importance and Engineering ToolsEngineering Tools
5
Rapid Prototyping
Im
De
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
209/368
0
1
2
3
4 Concurrent E
Desig
CADFMEA
Perfomance Simulation
Virtual Design
Perceived Importance and Perceived Importance and Organization ToolsOrganization Tools
5
CPM PERT GANNT
ChampionsLeaderless Teams
Im
De
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
210/368
0
1
2
3
4 Champions
Proce
TeamQFD
Colocated Teams
Leaderless Teams
Perceived Importance: TPerceived Importance: T
Voice of the Customer (4.2)Voice of the Customer (4.2) Customer Site Visits (3.9)Customer Site Visits (3.9)
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
211/368
( )
Rapid Prototyping (3.9)Rapid Prototyping (3.9) Project Scheduling Tools (3.9)Project Scheduling Tools (3.9)
Product Champions (3.9)Product Champions (3.9)
Frequency of Use: ToFrequency of Use: To
Project Scheduling Tools (3.7)Project Scheduling Tools (3.7)Voice of Customer (3.6)Voice of Customer (3.6)
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
212/368
Customer Site Visits (3.5)Customer Site Visits (3.5) ComputerComputer--Aided Design (3.4)Aided Design (3.4)
Matrix Organizations (3.2)Matrix Organizations (3.2)
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
213/368
PerformancePerformance
Past and Future ImpacPast and Future Impacof New Productsof New Products
35.0%
40.0%
45.0%
Past 5 Years
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
214/368
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
Next 5 Years
PercentofTotal
Product SuccessProduct Success
Successful Products (subjective)Successful Products (subjective)
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
215/368
Profitable Profitable
Still on market after 5 years Still on market after 5 years
Performance CriteriaPerformance Criteria
Repositioning
Customer Acceptance Financial Performance Tec
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
216/368
New Product Line
Next Generation
Incremenatal Improvement
Average LengthAverage Lengthof Development Projecof Development Projec
Incremenatal
Improvement
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
217/368
New Product Line
Next Generation
Further ReadingFurther Reading
RosenauRosenau et al.et al.The PDMA HandbThe PDMA HandbNew Product DevelopmentNew Product Development
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
218/368
Data Source for preceding slidesData Source for preceding slides
Cooper, Robert G.Cooper, Robert G.Winning at NeWinning at NeProductsProducts
StageStage--Gate ProcessesGate Processes
Tools For InnovatiTools For Innovatio
The Design StructThe Design Structu
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
219/368
MatrixMatrix
Thomas A. RoemerThomas A. RoemerSpring 06, PD&DSpring 06, PD&D
OutlineOutline
OverviewOverview Traditional Project Management Tools and Product Traditional Project Management Tools and Product
Design Structure Matrix (DSM) BasicsDesign Structure Matrix (DSM) BasicsH t tH t t
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
220/368
How to createHow to create
ClassificationClassification
The Iteration Problem:The Iteration Problem: Increasing Development SpeedIncreasing Development Speed
Sequencing, Partitioning and SimulationSequencing, Partitioning and Simulation
The Integration Problem:The Integration Problem: DSM ClusteringDSM Clustering
Classical Project ManageClassical Project ManageToolsTools
Gantt ChartsGantt Chartsc
tiv
ity
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
221/368
GraphGraph--based: PERT, CPM, IDEFbased: PERT, CPM, IDEFA
c
CharacteristicsCharacteristics
Complex DepictionComplex Depiction Focus on Work FlowsFocus on Work Flows
DSM focuses on Information FlowsDSM focuses on Information Flows
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
222/368
Ignore Iterations & ReworkIgnore Iterations & Rework Test results, Planned design reviews, DesigTest results, Planned design reviews, Desig
Coupled nature of the processCoupled nature of the process
Decomposition & IntegrationDecomposition & Integration Assume optimal Decomposition & StructureAssume optimal Decomposition & Structure
I t ti f T k t dd dI t ti f T k t dd d
Design IterationDesign Iteration
Iteration: The repetition of tasks due Iteration: The repetition of tasks due information.information. Changes in input information (upstream)Changes in input information (upstream)
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
223/368
Update of shared assumptions (concurrentUpdate of shared assumptions (concurrent Discovery of errors (downstream)Discovery of errors (downstream)
Fundamental in Product developmentFundamental in Product development Often times hiddenOften times hidden
Understanding Iterations requiresUnderstanding Iterations requiresVi ibilit f i f ti flVi ibilit f i f ti fl
A Graph and its DSMA Graph and its DSM
BE A B C D E
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
224/368
A C
D
F
G
E
I
A A XB B
C X C
D D
E E
F X G
H X X
I
Creating a DSMCreating a DSM
Design manualsDesign manuals Process sheetsProcess sheets
Structured expert interviewsStructured expert interviews
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
225/368
Structured expert interviewsStructured expert interviews Interview engineers and managersInterview engineers and managers
Determine list of tasks or parametersDetermine list of tasks or parameters
Ask about inputs, outputs, strengths of inteAsk about inputs, outputs, strengths of inte
Enter marks in matrixEnter marks in matrix
Check with engineers and managersCheck with engineers and managers
Q ti i
Four Types ofFour Types of DSMsDSMs
Iter
Activity based DSM Sequen
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
226/368
Activity based DSM
Parameter based DSMSequen
Partitio
Simula
Int
Team based DSM Cl t
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
227/368
Iteration Focused TIteration Focused T
Concepts, Examples, SolutioConcepts, Examples, SolutioApproachesApproaches
Sequencing Tasks in ProSequencing Tasks in Pro
Possible Relationships between Task
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
228/368
A
B
A B
DSM:DSM: Information ExchangeInformation Exchange
Interpretation:Interpretation:
Rows: RequiredRows: Required
D needs input D needs input fA
C DA B G HE F K LI J
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
229/368
Columns: ProviColumns: Provi B transfers infB transfers inf
Note:Note:
Information floInformation flocapture than worcapture than work
Inputs are easiInputs are easi
o tp toutputs
C
D
B
G
H
E
F
I
DSM:DSM: Partitioned or SequePartitioned or Seque
B
C DAB GHEFK L IJ
Series
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
230/368
CA
E
F
K
L
I
J
Parallel
Coupled
TaskSequence
Sequencing AlgorithSequencing Algorithm
Step 1: Schedule tasks with empty rows firstStep 1: Schedule tasks with empty rows first Step 2: Delete the row and column for that taStep 2: Delete the row and column for that ta
Step 3: Repeat (Go to step 1)Step 3: Repeat (Go to step 1)
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
231/368
Step 4: Schedule tasks with empty columns laStep 4: Schedule tasks with empty columns la
Step 5: Delete the row and column for that taStep 5: Delete the row and column for that ta
Step 6: Repeat (Go to step 4)Step 6: Repeat (Go to step 4)
Step 7: All the tasks that are left unscheduledStep 7: All the tasks that are left unscheduled
Group them into blocks around the diagonalGroup them into blocks around the diagonal
Example: Brake System DExample: Brake System D
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Customer_Requirements 1 1
Wheel Torque 2 2 X
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
232/368
Pedal Mech. Advantage 3 X 3 X X XSystem_Level_Parameters 4 X 4
Rotor Diameter 5 X X X X 5 X X
ABS Modular Display 6 X 6
Front_Lining_Coef._of_Friction 7 X X X 7 X
Piston-Rear Size 8 X X 8
Caliper Compliance 9 X X
Piston- Front Size 10 X X X
Partitioned DSM: Brake DPartitioned DSM: Brake D
1 4 2 10 8 3 11 7
Customer_Requirements 1 1
System_Level_Parameters 4 X 4
Wheel Torque 2 X 2
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
233/368
Piston- Front Size 10 X X 10 XPiston-Rear Size 8 X X X 8
Pedal Mech. Advantage 3 X X X X 3
Rear Lining Coef of Friction 11 X X X X 11
Front_Lining_Coef._of_Friction 7 X X X X 7Booster Reaction Ratio 13 X X X X X X X
Rotor Diameter 5 X X X X X X X X
Booster - Max Stroke 12
Semiconductor Design ExamSemiconductor Design ExamS E E S D M F D C S W H W D D B F D L I R D F V R C C D D G V R S C D P F S F V A E C
et customer target x x st mate sa es vo umes x x xsta s pr c ng rect on x xc e u e pro ect t me ne xeve opment met o s x x x x xacro targets constra nts x x x x x xnanc a ana ys s x x x x x eve op program map x xreate n t a matr x x x x x et tec n ca requ rements x x x x x
r te customer spec cat on x x x x x g - eve mo e ng x x x x x x xr te target spec cat on x x x x x x x x x x xeve op test p an x x x x x xeve op va at on p an x x x x u ase prototype x x x x x x unct ona mo e ng x x x x x x x x x x x x x eve op pro uct mo u es x x x x x x x x x ay out ntegrat on x x x x x x x x x
ntegrat on mo e ng x x x x x x x x x xan om test ng x x x x xeve op test parameters x x x x x x x x x x
Concurrent Activity Blocks
Potential Ite
Genera
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
234/368
eve op test parameters x x x x x x x x x x
na ze sc emat cs x x x x x x x a at on s mu at on x x x x x x x x xe a ty mo e ng x x x x x xomp ete pro uct ayout x x x x x x xont nu ty ver cat on x x x x x x es gn ru e c ec x x x es gn pac age x x x x x enerate mas s x x x x x er y mas s n a x x x un wa ers x x ort wa ers x reate test programs x e ug pro ucts x x x x x ac age pro ucts x x x unct ona ty test ng x x x en samp es to customers x x x x ee ac rom customers x er y samp e unct ona ty x pprove pac age pro ucts x x x x nv ronmenta va at on x x x x omp ete pro uct va at on x x x x x eve op tec pu cat ons x x
Sequential Activities
Task Sequencing ExamTask Sequencing Exam
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
235/368
Engine ComponentsEngine Components
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
236/368
Dependency RelationDependency RelationConceptual Design BloConceptual Design BloACTIVITIES 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 2
S S P En gi ne B a la nc e 1 4 0.15 0.1 0.1
CMT Make Pre lim ina ry Mate r ia l Selec t ions 2 1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
CST Assess Pump Housing 3 8 1
Design Pump Housing 4 0.5 0.2 4 1 1 0.1 1 0.1
CST Assess Turb ine Housing 5 4
CST Compare Design Annulus Area 6 1 1
CAX Det ermine Opt imum Turbine St aging 7 1 0.1 0.1 6 0.1 1 0.2
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
237/368
CST Compare Design Pi tch l ine Veloci t ies 8 1
CST Compare Design Impel ler T ip Speed 9 1 1
CHX Det er mine Pumping Component s 10 1 0.1 0.2 0.1 6 0.2
CDE Design Pumping Element s 11 0.5 1 8 0.3 0.1
CST Evaluat e Rot or Siz ing 12 1 1 1
CDE Incorporate Bearing Dimensions 13 2 1
CDE Design Rot or 14 0.2 1 1 2 1 0.1 1 0.2 0.1
CBR Det ermine Bear ing Geomet r y 15 0.1 1 0.2 4 1 0.1
CDE Posi t ion Bear ings and Selec t ion 16 0.2 1 1 0.2 2
CDE Design Turbine 17 0.2 1 0.3 0.1 4
CDE Int egr at e Rot or and S t r uc t ure Layout 18 1 1 8 0
CDE Incorporate Seal Dimensions 19 1 1
CSL Def ine Seal Syst em 20 0.2 0.1 1 1 0.3 4
CSL Def ine Indiv idual Seal ing Element s 21 0.1 0.2 1 2 0.1
CDEDevelop Thrust Balanc e 22 0 2 1 6
Block DecompositioBlock Decomposition
Aij
ijijij ynamin i,j= index for activities, i,j= 1
m= index for stages, m = 1,2,
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
238/368
=
=M
m
im ix1
,1
mCx
N
i
im ,1 =
jiM
0
s.t. A= the set of directed arcs in t
aij= the level of dependency o
= otherwise0
assigisactivityif1 i
xim
=otherwise1
bafeedaisarcif0 ijyij
Resulting Structure fResulting Structure fConceptual Design BloConceptual Design Blo
ACTIVITIES 1 10 9 2 7 8 17 11 12 6 16 20 21 19 15 13 4 3 27 14 18 22 5
SSP Engine Balance 1 4 0.1 0.15 0.1
CHX Determine Pumping Components 10 1 6 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2
ST Compar e Desi gn Impel ler Ti p Speed 9 1 1
T Make Preliminary Mat erial Select ions 2 0.1 1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
AX Deter mine Opt imum Turbi ne St aging 7 1 1 0.1 6 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1
ST Compare Design Pitchline Velocities 8 1
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
239/368
CDE Design Turbine 17 0.2 1 4 0.3 0.1
CDE Design Pumping Elements 11 1 0.5 8 0.3 0.1
CST Evaluate Rotor Sizing 12 1 1 1
CST Compare Design Annulus Area 6 1 1
CDE Posit ion Bearings and Select ion 16 1 0.2 1 2 0.2
CSL Def ine Seal System 20 1 0.2 1 4 0.3 0.1
CSL Def ine Individual Sealing Elements 21 0.1 1 2 0.1 0.2 0.1
CDE Incorporate Seal Dimensions 19 1 1
CBR Determine Bearing Geomet ry 15 1 1 4 0.1 0.1 0.2
CDE Incorporate Bearing Dimensions 13 1 2
Design Pump Housing 4 1 0.5 1 1 4 0.2 0.1 0.1
CST Assess Pump Housing 3 1 8
DesignTurbineHousing 27 0 5 1 1 1 4 0 2 0 1 0 1
STCSTCss Existing ProcesExisting Proces
Conceptual
Design
Negotiation
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
240/368
g
Manufacturing &
Testing
Detail Design
Program Office Project Team
Proposed ProcessProposed Process
Conceptual
Design
Negotiation
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
241/368
Manufacturing &
Testing
Detail Design
Core Design Team
Pilot Project PerformaPilot Project Performa
Detail Design Fabrication & Te
Conceptual Design
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
242/368
9d
20 days 25 days 40 days
39 days 68 days
27%
As-Is
To-Be
DSM SimulationDSM Simulation TT
T
Task A requires input from task CTask A requires input from task C
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
243/368
Perform A by assuming a value for CPerform A by assuming a value for C Deliver ADeliver As output to Bs output to B
Deliver BDeliver Bs output to Cs output to C
Feed CFeed Cs output back to As output back to A
Check initial assumption (made by A)Check initial assumption (made by A)
Simulating ReworkSimulating Rework
Task A
Task B X
R
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
244/368
Task C X
R is the probability that Task A will be repeate
once task C has finished its work.
R = 0.0 : There is 0 chance that A will be
Simulating 2Simulating 2ndnd Order ReOrder Re
Task A
T k B
R2
X
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
245/368
Task B
Task C X
Second Order rework is the rework associated with foinformation flows that is triggered by feedback marks.
Fi t d k O t t f t k C t k A t d
Simulating Rework ImpSimulating Rework Imp
Task A
T k BX
I
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
246/368
Task BTask C X
I = 0.0 : If task A is reworked due to task C rethen 0% of task As initial duration will be repe
I 1 0 If t k A i k d d t t k C
Simulation ResultsSimulation Results
DSM conDSM con
b bilb bil
.5
.5
.5 .5
.5 .5.5
.5
.5.5
Impact
.9
.9
9 9
.9 .9.9
.9
.9.9
Rework
X
XX XX
X
XX
Information Flow
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
247/368
probabilprobabilimpactsimpacts
Cost andCost and
Many ruMany rudistributdistribut
and costand cost0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0Target
.9 .9 XX X
X XX
Gantt Chart with IteraGantt Chart with Iterat
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
vt
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
248/368
8
9
1 0
1 1
1 2
1 3
1 4
1 51 6
1 7
0 2 0 4 0 6 0 8 0 1 0 0 1 2 0
Elap s e d T im e (Da ys )
Activi
Lessons Learned: IteraLessons Learned: Itera
Development is inherently iterativeDevelopment is inherently iterative Understanding of coupling is essentialUnderstanding of coupling is essential
Iterations improve quality but consumes timeIterations improve quality but consumes time
It ti b l t d th hIt ti b l t d th h
-
7/25/2019 15783 spring 2001
249/368
Iteration can be accelerated throughIteration can be accelerated through Infor