15/3 -17 impact exponential technologies
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Technology is determining our future
Paul Epping, Chapter leadMarch 15th
Chapter SU Dubai presentation
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Who or what will be thinking for me?
#SUChapterDubai
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TheMillenniumProject:63Nodes...andtworegionalnetworksinEuropeandLatinAmerica
Nodesidentifyparticipants,translatequestionnairesandreports,andconductinterviews,specialresearch,workshops,symposiums,andadvancedtraining.
aregroupsofexpertsandinstitutions thatconnectglobalandlocalviewsin:
Tunisia
Yerevan
Sri Lanka
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When you change the way you look at things, the things you look at will change
Wayne Dyre
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Driver of exponential growth of technology
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Geological Clock
6
12
3
1
9
2
Proterozoic ? Multicellar
Animals
Landplants
Mammals
Humans
4.5 billion years
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First tools
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Extermination of big mammals
On the move
Extension of our stomach
Fire
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The last 10 seconds
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14
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Exponential technological growthat reduced cost for performance
Bandwidth
Storage Cost
Computing Cost 0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
$pergBperSec.
$per1Mtransistors
$pergB
1992 Today
$
Time
Video conferencingDigital camera GPSScanningCalculator Cloud storage Digital dictaphoneMusic player Video playerEtc.
Software solutions for free
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A gap that we usually don’t conceive as a gap
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Examples of exponential technologies
Cognitive computing Nano technology Digital biology Genomics
Energy3D printing
DigitizationRobotics
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The law of acceleration returns will be seen at the intersections of exponential technologies
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Credit: Frank Diana
Intersections
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Effect that we see, experience
All technology that will digitize, add information to itDigitize1
Stages of innovation to understand that disruption is just one phase
The 6 D’s according to P. Diamandis
In the early stage small doublings => once it hits the knee you’re 10 doublings away from a thousand, twenty doublings to reach a million; thirty doublings to get to a billion
Deceptive2
Any innovation that creates a new market and disrupts an existing one
Disruptive3
You don’t have separated solutions (flashlight, GPS or camera,….) Instead => apps on your smartphone
Dematerialization
5
You can reach very quickly very large groups of people Democratization6
An existing product or service will available for free or way cheaper (Uber, Airbnb, FB, Skype, Whatsapp, etc)
Demonetization
4
Reshapedourw
orldRevolutionize
ourw
orld
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Examples of results on the intersections
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Bob Radocy at Cybathlon
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Ultrasound in your pocket
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Philips Minicare
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Develop and demonstrate how humans can collaborate with powerful AI technologies to tackle the world’s grand challenges
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xPrize: 21 medical conditions (10 required, 5 elective) including diabetes anemia, sleep apnea, atrial fibrillation, RR (should weight < 5 pounds)
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Mercy Virtual
36Safewatch(2006);Telestroke;VirtualHospitalists;HomeMonitoring(3800patients)
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A look inside
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24/7 Connectivity: The Internet of Medical Things
38
Always-onpersonalizedconnectedhealthservicesatthepointofcare
Population health management
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Perceived Benefits and Negative Consequences of 12 Emerging Technologies (WEF’17)
75 % will affect HC!
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Now Tomorrow
Internet
Now we can make the “math” ourselves
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Artificial intelligence
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The neocortex as differentiator
100 million modules built for pattern recognition
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Dendrites generate nearly 10 times more electrochemical spikes than neuron cell bodies
Computational power bigger than thought
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AI start ups in the US, 2016 =>160
Since 2012 => 648
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Smoldering fires underground
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Three forms of Artificial Intelligence
1. Artificial Narrow Intelligence2. Artificial General Intelligence3. Artificial Super Intelligence
These three are often lumped together as AI
This confuses the discussion about AI
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Professor Stephen Hawking (Photo Credit: NASA/Paul Alers)www.gizmag.com
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Our brains are getting augmented, but socially we are weakening
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And all connected to the internet…
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Steve Jobs and Bill Gates 1991
By 2030-2050 millions of people could become augmented geniuses, and what could they create?
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Do “they” really understand….??
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Brains are in!Our future Hybrid Synthetic Brain?
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AI will dominate us… and now?
R
L
Merge typical human values like love, liberty, democracy,compassion, tolerancewith AI.
This inheritance will be an opportunity for a better world.
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Asilomar AI principles
Research Issues
GoalFunding
Culture
Raceavoidance
Science Politics
link
Non-subversion
Ethics & Values
AI Arms race
Shared prosperity
Liberty & Privacy
Human values
Responsibility
Safety
Human control
Shared benefit
Personal privacy Value
alignment
Judicial transpare
ncy
Failure transpare
ncy
Longer term Issues
Recursive Self-
improvement
Common good
Risks
Importance
Capability caution
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Singularity?
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Singularity?
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The 6 Epochs:Evolution works through indirection: it creates a capability and then uses that capability to evolve the next stage.
16-03-17 63
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My key learnings• Change yourself or you will be changed
• Exponential growth of technology will force us to change gears
• Unprecedented confluence of disruptive technologies (synthetic biology, AI, nano, sensors, robots, etc.) will improve our physical health
• Machines will surpass human intelligence soon and cross an irreversible point
• No future for diseases: genomics – nano - AI- digital biology
• Merging human values with AI for co-existential sustainability
• Lost of millions of jobs < 10 years, but are we ready to focus on opportunities (education)?
• By 2020 we have 2 billion new minds joining the internet, 2 billion inventors…
• Many organizations build their strategies on linear foundations whereas the exponential world is around the corner. New business models are needed
• There will be a world of abundance, but who will benefit from that?
• Technology encourages superficiality (millenniums)
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Influential books (must reads … if you have time)
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In the end it’s all about ideas……. let ideas meet each other
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.Thank You
.
© 2017 Singularity University
Paul Epping
PaulEpping
PaulEpping