15-day forecast skill during October-November-December Todd Mitchell Joint Institute for the Study...
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15-day forecast skill during October- November-December Todd Mitchell Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean University of Washington
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15-day forecast skill during October-November-December
Todd Mitchell
Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean
University of Washington
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Examine 15-day daily NOAA “reforecasts”
•Every day run the forecast model out 15 days.•Do this 15 times and take the mean.•Do this every day since 1979.
How useful are the 15-day October, November, December reforecasts for the Pacific Northwest?
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![Page 4: 15-day forecast skill during October-November-December Todd Mitchell Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean University of Washington.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56649d445503460f94a21403/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
![Page 5: 15-day forecast skill during October-November-December Todd Mitchell Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean University of Washington.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56649d445503460f94a21403/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
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• Examine skill in shorter forecasts.
• Skill in forecast for average of days 11-15.
• Skill in precipitable water forecasts
• Skill in warm, neutral, and cold ENSO
• Skill for phases of the tropical intraseasonal oscillation (Madden and Julian oscillation)
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