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A glossary of frequently used investment terms can be found on our website.

The comments in these articles are an abbreviated restatement of our analysts’ reports.

* Updated as at market close 5 December 2014.

Members of the Commonwealth Bank or its affiliates beneficially own 1% or more of a class of common equity securities of WOR, ORG, AWC, QAN, CSL and GNC.

VISIT COMMSEC.COM.AU  CALL 13 15 19

ISSUE 125 | 5 DECEMBER 2014 

STOCKS TO WATCH

WORLEYPARSONS LIMITED 1

Summary of Reportdated 28 November 2014

Stock Code:WOR

Sector:Developers & Contractors

12mth Price Target:$13.25*

Last Traded:$10.54*

Market Cap:$2,575m*

OPEC MEETING A NEGATIVE FOR WOR

OPEC – the oil market cartel responsible for ~40% of global crude supply – looks to have stepped away from its long-held de-factorole as oil supply-demand balancing agent via its decision to leave output targets unchanged at its recent meeting in Vienna.

Risk to earnings and share price for WOR

This decision by OPEC means the oil market shifts away from one effectively subject to the characteristics of oligopolisticbehaviour, and towards one more closely correlated with rational supply-demand and the underlying fundamentals of the costcurve. It is looking increasingly likely to us that OPEC is keeping crude oil prices low and targeting market share to pressure USshale oil production, which we see as the reason US oil output is at 30-year highs and forcing OPEC to consider its crude oiloutput target. We see short-term earnings and share price risks for WOR.

Oil sands under pressure; short-term pullback in spend likely

 At the current WTI price of ~US$69/bbl, greenfield development may be out of the question in the Canadian oil sands, where weunderstand the line in the sand for development is now ~US$85/bbl. Pipeline development remains as the other key variable. Atcurrent levels, we suspect budgets for existing plays may be scaled back significantly. We estimate ~10% of WOR’s gross profitis sourced from this space. During the 3Q reporting period, when asked about the impact of lower oil prices, consensus from oiland gas services companies appeared to be that neither they nor their customers believed lower oil prices would sustain. WORcompetitor John Wood Group is to update the market on 11 December 2014, where we should get a read of upstream activities.

Maintain Neutral with a lower $13.25ps price target

We have made no adjustments to our earnings forecasts at this time, noting we are ~5% below consensus but see risk to thisnumber. However, we have lowered the multiple used in our valuation to reflect heightened risk and our 12-month price target

falls to $13.25 (-15.4%). WOR’s valuation looks more palatable to us at these levels, but the near-term headwinds appear strong.We maintain our Neutral recommendation.

NEUTRAL

ORIGIN ENERGY LIMITED 

Summary of Reportdated 01 December 2014

Stock Code:ORG

Sector:Utilities

12mth Price Target:$13.60*

Last Traded:$11.25*

Market Cap:$12,446m*

OIL PRICE DOWNGRADED, BALANCE SHEET IS OK

We have taken a closer look at ORG’s balance sheet and remain of the view that a downgrade to the company’s credit rating isunlikely, especially if APLNG debt is no longer consolidated on a pro-rata basis after the construction is complete.

Capex and oil have impacted credit metrics 

On the back of OPEC’s decision last Friday to maintain current production levels, we are now running both our oil price and FXforecasts off the forward curve. Our long-term AUD oil price has gone from A$125/bbl to A$106/bbl. Post adjustment for the highercapex and our oil price forecasts, both adjusted debt/EBITDA and adjusted FFO/debt metrics as calculated by S&P methodologyhave deteriorated. Debt/EBITDA is estimated to be at 4.1x and FFO/debt at 19% in FY16f. S&P’s most recent commentarysuggested debt/EBITDA in FY16 of sub-4.0x would be required for ORG’s balance sheet to be taken off negative watch.

Timing of Train 2 is the most important factor

ORG currently provides a ‘construction guarantee’ related to its share of debt associated with APLNG. Given this, S&Pconsolidates ORG’s share of APLNG debt when calculating credit metrics. This guarantee is in place until Train 2 comes online.Once the guarantee is removed, ~$3.3b of debt could be excluded from credit calculations. If APLNG’s debt is excluded after thecompletion of Train 2, then we estimate ORG’s FY16f credit metric would see adjusted debt/EBITDA fall from 4.1x to 3.7x (andbelow the 4.0x threshold).

Maintain Overweight with a lower price target of $13.60ps

We have lowered our earnings forecasts, driven by both the recent capex increase at APLNG as well as the fall in oil price, andour 12-month price target reduces to $13.60ps (from $15.65). However, we believe the stock will rerate as we get closer to firstgas next year and the strain on ORG's balance sheet is removed. We believe ORG has adequate liquidity to meet APLNGfunding and that an equity raising is unlikely. Additionally, an improving gas retail market and continued pressure on wholesaleprices suggest to us the outlook for ORG remains encouraging. Key risks relate to oil prices continuing to deteriorate and thepossibility of delays at APLNG. We maintain our Overweight recommendation.

OVERWEIGHT

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ISSUE 125 | 5 DECEMBER 2014

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ALUMINA LIMITED 

Summary of Reportdated 01 December 2014

Stock Code:AWC

Sector:Mining

12mth Price Target:$1.89*

Last Traded:$1.73*

Market Cap:$4,855m*

PLANETS KEEP ON ALIGNING

We provide an update on AWAC alumina margins with the current combination of alumina prices, currency and energy prices allmoving in the right direction for AWC. We estimate spot alumina margins have almost doubled to US$85/t in the current quarter.

Prices remain strong with a currency tailwind

 Alumina markets remain one of the few bright spots in commodities. The spot alumina price of US$354/t is up 15% from its three-month low of US$309/t in July last quarter. CBA’s recent trip to China confirmed our view that prices are likely to tighten further,driven by a demand-pull as aluminium output grows and a moderate cost-push as bauxite markets tighten further from theIndonesian export ban, which remains in place. AWAC is a major beneficiary of a falling AUD given 53% of its productioncapacity is located in Western Australia. Company guidance is that each $0.01 movement in the AUD/USD exchange rateimpacts profit before tax at the AWAC level by $19m, equating to ~$1.20/t of EBITDA margins. The 4Q (ytd) the average rate of$0.87 is down $0.054 on the 3Q average rate of $0.92, and equates to a US$6.50/t margin improvement.

Energy prices falling 

We expect the impact from falling energy prices to take longer to flow through. However, around 24% of AWAC’s alumina refiningcost is energy, spread across fuel oil (50%), gas (42%) and coal (8%). Given AWAC’s strategy to move the production portfoliodown the cost curve (21st percentile by 2016), this should see the majority (~80%) become gas-powered by early 2015 from acombination of asset sales (Jamaica), the conversion of refineries to gas (San Ciprian) and the ramp-up of new refineries(Ma’aden). Alcoa has disclosed earnings sensitivity to energy prices (providing a close read-through for AWAC) that eachUS$1/GJ fall in the Henry Hub gas price lifts EBITDA margins by ~$1.40/t at Point Comfort. The low-cost WA assets have long-term gas supply contracts in place out to 2020, and the contract price is based on a rolling 16-quarter average price. Given the

lag time for this to flow through we have not adjusted our cost assumptions, but we maintain our view that the dramatic fall in oilprices has the potential to improve margins further.

Maintain Overweight and $1.89 price target

We highlight that margins have more than doubled in the current quarter and we believe AWC remains well placed torecommence dividends in 2015. We maintain our Overweight recommendation and 12-month price target of $1.89ps. Key risksinclude an adverse change in alumina prices and a deterioration of economic conditions in China.

OVERWEIGHT

QANTAS AIRWAYS LIMITED 

Summary of Reportdated 01 December 2014

Stock Code:QAN

Sector:Transport

12mth Price Target:$2.95*

Last Traded:$2.10*

Market Cap:$4,612m*

NO CASE TO CUT FARES JUST YET

 As the oil price continues to fall, attention will turn to the role of Qantas fuel surcharges and airfares in general. The currenttrends of falling fuel prices and rising yields are only partly reversing the negative trends over the past three years.

Surcharges to come under scrutiny

Qantas levies fuel surcharges on most long-haul international routes, but not on domestic flights or on short-haul internationaldestinations (eg, New Zealand). In January 2014, Qantas raised fuel surcharges on international flights to Europe, the MiddleEast and some Asian destinations to align surcharges with its partner, Emirates. Qantas levies a $270 fuel surcharge on one-wayeconomy flights to Europe and $495 for business class. We estimate Qantas fuel surcharges generate between $1.2b and $1.8bin annual revenue, representing 8-12% of group revenue and about 27-40% of Qantas’s fuel costs. At current fuel prices, theQantas fuel bill would continue to dwarf revenue from fuel surcharges. However, if international airlines cut surcharges, weexpect Qantas to do the same.

How will Qantas yields respond to the lower fuel price? 

Qantas has reported rising domestic yield (on the pcp) for the past two months and international fares turned late in FY14.Competitive forces should eventually see Qantas and other airlines pass on some fuel cost savings, but we see no reason to doso just yet. Qantas saw group yield decline about 8% in three years (equivalent to more than $1b in lost revenue). Over that time,Qantas’s fuel bill rose about $800m, suggesting a combined EBIT hit of more than $1.8b. We estimate the 30% fall in AUD jetfuel that we have seen so far in FY15 should eventually save Qantas about $1.4b, provided the lower fuel price is sustained for a

full year. Even with fuel cost savings of this size, Qantas is worse off than it was three years ago.

Maintain Overweight with a higher $2.95ps price target

We have made further material upgrades to our Qantas earnings estimates reflecting our revised fuel and FX forecasts. Our new12-month price target is $2.95 (previously $2.25). QAN has made considerable progress in reducing operating costs and AUD jetfuel costs have also fallen materially. If revenue conditions stabilise, as we expect, this should result in a significant increase inunderlying earnings. A key risk would be a rebound in fuel prices. We forecast QAN will resume paying dividends in FY16 (at5cps).

OVERWEIGHT

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ISSUE 125 | 5 DECEMBER 2014

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GRAINCORP LIMITED 

Summary of Reportdated 02 December 2014

Stock Code:GNC

Sector:Agribusiness

12mth Price Target:$8.00*

Last Traded:$8.30*

Market Cap:$1,900m*

CROPPING OUR EXPECTATIONS AGAIN

We have revised our earnings forecasts following the release of the ABARES Australian crop report for September 2014. GNC’s

harvest update highlights 5.7mt of receivals in FY15 ytd, compared to our forecast of 7.2mt, and receivals of 8.0mt in FY14. Rainis said to have delayed harvest in NSW and VIC.

FY15 east coast crop production forecasts reduced

 ABARES has lowered its FY15 east coast crop production forecasts to 15.7mt from 16.2mt previously, and down from 17.5mt inFY14. This reflects relevant crop only, including wheat, barley, canola and sorghum. Should this forecast become reality, FY15would be the fourth straight year of decline in east coast crop production, representing a 35% decrease on a recent peak of23.9mt in FY11. Wheat production is expected to decline by 9.7% to a forecast 10.3mt in FY15 from an estimated 11.4mt inFY14. Barley production is expected to decline 23% to a forecast 2.7mt in FY15 from an estimated 3.5mt in FY14. Canola isexpected to decline 7.7% to a forecast 1.4mt in FY15 from an estimated 1.5mt in FY14. Grain sorghum is expected to increaseby 21% to a forecast 1.4mt in FY15 from an estimated 1.1mt in FY14.

Much of the decline is centred in Victoria; significant earnings leverage hurts on the way down

NSW relevant crop production is expected to improve slightly to a forecast 9.0mt, from an estimated 8.9mt. QLD production isforecast to decline by 3% to a 2.1mt, from an estimated 2.2mt. However, VIC relevant crop production is forecast to decline by28% to 4.6mt from an estimated 6.3mt, as drier and warmer weather led to low levels of soil moisture particularly in the Wimmeraand southern Mallee regions. We estimate FY15 EBITDA/throughput tonne will fall 20% to A$3.6/t from A$4.6/t, reflecting thesignificant earnings leverage to the ABARES forecast 10% decline in east coast crop production in FY15. We have assumed

GNC can hold FY14’s implied market share of 46%, despite expectations of a lower crop forecast.

Maintain Neutral with a slightly lower $8.00ps price target

We have lowered our earnings forecast by 26% in FY15 to reflect lower Australian east coast crop expectations and reduced our12-month price target to $8.00ps (from $8.10 previously). We believe increasing competition will ultimately erode GNC’s marketposition on the Australian east coast. However, we can’t ignore the possibility GNC may potentially be of considerable interest toan operator of a global grain trading platform. We maintain our Neutral recommendation.

NEUTRAL

CSL LIMITED 

Summary of Reportdated 03 December 2014

Stock Code:CSL

Sector:Healthcare

12mth Price Target:$86.00*

Last Traded:$85.97*

Market Cap:$40,815m*

MULTIPLE SOURCES OF VALUE UPSIDE POTENTIAL

CSL held its annual R&D briefing, outlining key developments and the outlook for its research activities.Key highlights from the briefing

 – Long-acting recombinants within reach: Expected regulatory filings for CSL’s rFIX-FP (imminent) and rFVIII-FP (by mid-CY15),with expected approvals ~12 months thereafter respectively, reinforce our view that consensus is likely to start incorporatingthese two products into FY17 earnings forecasts over the next 6-12 months. Based on the presented data for rFIX, we nowbelieve our base-case market share assumption could prove conservative. We currently ascribe a ~40% risked value ofUS$3.33ps (A$3.97) to the entire haemophilia portfolio, although this is subject to review.

 – IG growth options remain sound: We continue to see growth optionality across CSL’s IG portfolio with Hizentra marketexpansion ongoing (39 country registrations versus 66 for Privigen) and label expansion. We think these factors will help defendmarket share against increased competition from products such as HyQvia, but nonetheless assume a normalisation of IGvolume growth to ~7% by FY18.

 – Specialty products somewhat mixed: The specialty portfolio continues to progress largely in line with expectations. However, anapproximately six-month delay with subcutaneous Berinert (due to additional safety data) and the failure of fibrinogen to meetprimary end-points in aortic surgery were negatives. We remain comfortable with our forecast of ~15% pa revenue growth withinthe overall specialty segment in FY15 and FY16.

 – rHDL remains a free option: We continue to view rHDL as essentially a free option at current price levels. CSL has commencedPhase IIb of the study, which will significantly inform if and how it will proceed to Phase III. The current study is expected to takeabout two years. We think it is too early to be ascribing value to rHDL at this point and consider a successful conclusion of thePhase IIb study as the first step in potentially de-risking the project. The success of this project, however, could be companytransforming, in our view.

Maintain Overweight with a higher $86.00ps price target

We have made no changes to our earnings forecasts at this stage pending an update to the assumptions for our recombinantportfolio valuation. Our 12-month price target moves to $86.00ps (from $78.00) reflecting 20x FY16f EPS (unchanged) convertedat spot AUD/USD (84c vs 92c previously), with $3.97 added for haemophilia. We maintain our Overweight recommendation. CSLis trading at a 28% premium to Industrials ex Financials but still ~10ppt below its long-term (10-year) average premium. Against aforecast three-year EPS CAGR of ~11%, it remains our top sector preference.

OVERWEIGHT

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ISSUE 125 | 5 DECEMBER 2014

VISIT COMMSEC.COM.AU  CALL 13 15 19

All market data is as at market close 5 December 2014.

ECONOMIC FORECASTS2012/13 (actual) 2013/14 (actual) 2014/15 (forecast) 2015/16 (forecast)

Economic growth (annual %) 2.8 2.8 2.75-3.25 2.75-3.25

Inflation (CPI, average annual %) 2.3 2.7 2.25-2.75 2.25-2.75

Unemployment rate (end June %) 5.4 5.8 5.50-6.00 5.25-5.75

Current Dec 4 2014 End Dec (forecast) End Mar (forecast) End Jun (forecast)

90 day bills (%) 2.73 2.70 2.70 2.60

10 year bonds (%) 2.99 3.60 3.70 3.80

 AUD/USD 0.8398 0.85-90 0.85-90 0.85-90

 All Ordinaries index 5345.4 5550 5700 5900

DIVIDEND DATESStock Code Company Name Ex-Dividend Date Dividend Amount Last Traded Record Date Date Payable

GTK Gentrack Group 9 Dec 14 3.3c $2.08 11 Dec 14 19 Dec 14

HVN Harvey Norman Holdings 10 Dec 14 14.0c $3.73 12 Dec 14 30 Dec 14

MLXDA Metals X 12 Dec 14 0.7c $0.73 16 Dec 14 7 Jan 15

TOP 200: MOVERS AND SHAKERSTOP 5 BOTTOM 5

No. ASXCode

Company MarketCap($m)

ThisWeek’s

price ($)

LastWeek’s

price ($)

Change* No. ASXCode

Company MarketCap($m)

ThisWeek’s

price ($)

LastWeek’s

price ($)

Change*

1. BKN Bradken 775 4.530 3.630 24.8% 1. MGX Mount Gibson Iron 224 0.205 0.410 -50.0%

2. MML Medusa Mining 154 0.740 0.650 13.8% 2. HVNR Harvey Norman Holdings(Rights)

3,962 1.065 1.800 -40.8%

3. MFG Magellan Financial Group 2,551 15.960 14.340 11.3% 3. MTS Metcash 1,680 1.860 2.610 -26.2%

4. BDR Beadell Resources 174 0.220 0.200 10.0% 4. SKE Ski lled Group 356 1.510 1.965 -23.2%

5. QAN Qantas Airways 4,612 2.100 1.920 9.4% 5. ARI Arrium 543 0.185 0.240 -22.9%

* To remove the share price impact of a stock beginning to trade ex-dividend during the week, for this calculation any dividend is subsequently added back to ‘This Week’s price’ shown above.

CORPORATE AND ECONOMIC CALENDARWEEK BEGINNING 8 DECEMBER 2014

AUSTRALIA OVERSEAS

8 December Job advertisements (November) 8 December CH Trade data (November)

9 December NAB business survey (November) 9 December US Wholesale sales (October)

10 December Consumer confidence (December) 10 December CH Inflation (November)

10 December Housing finance (October) 10 December US Federal Budget (November)

11 December Employment/unemployment (November) 11 December US Retail sales (November)

112 December Credit/debit cards (October) 12 December CH Monthly data (November)

12 December Lending finance (October) 12 December US Consumer sentiment (December)

12 December US Producer prices (November)

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ISSUE 125 | 5 DECEMBER 2014

VISIT COMMSEC.COM.AU  CALL 13 15 19

Current recommendation definitionsCBA Institutional Equities investment recommendations are determined by the covering analyst and reflect the analyst’s assessment of a stock’s expected totalshareholder return (TSR). Stock expected TSR is calculated as the difference between the analyst’s 12-month price target and the current share price plus the forecastdividend yield.Overweight: Stocks with an Overweight recommendation represent the most attractive stocks under the analyst’s coverage. They are generally forecast to generatehigher TSR compared to the rest of the analyst’s coverage.Neutral: Stocks with a Neutral recommendation are less attractive than stocks with an Overweight recommendation. They are generally forecast to generate lowerTSR compared to stocks with an Overweight recommendation in the analyst’s coverage.Underweight: Stocks with an Underweight recommendation are the least attractive stocks. They are generally forecast to generate lower TSR compared to stockswith a Neutral recommendation in the analyst’s coverage.

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