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Sector Report Dec 2, 2014
I. 2015 Korean cosmetics market outlook (p.2)
1) Korean and Chinese market outlook: Korea’s cosmetics market will likely grow by at least
5.0% in 2015 to reach $10.8bn and China’s should grow by at least 8.0% to reach $51.6bn.
2) Chinese visitor growth and expectations for Korea’s duty-free shop growth: With the number
of Chinese travelers to Korea likely to grow 30% YoY in 2015, duty-free cosmetics sales
should continue growing strongly. Ten downtown duty-free stores are expanding their gross
area by 42.8% in 2015, and the government is set to grant more duty-free store licenses.
Thus, duty-free cosmetics sales growth is likely to outpace Chinese traveler growth to Korea.
3) Korea’s cosmetics exports growing sharply: Korea’s cosmetics imports have stagnated at
W1tn since 2012, while cosmetics exports have grown about 20% YoY. Korea’s trade balance
of cosmetics (including fragrance and personal care products) should enter positive territory in
2014, and net exports over 1Q~3Q14 came to $233mn. Considering the effect of China’s
Singles’ Day (Nov 11), Korea’s net exports should exceed $403mn in 2014.
II. Changes in China’s cosmetics market (p.7)
1) Consumption taxes on cosmetics expected to decline, benefits from Korea-China FTA: Make-
up products account for just 6.9% of China’s cosmetics market, and the government imposes
a 30% consumption tax on make-up and functional products, because they are regarded as
luxury goods. The government is likely to re-categorize cosmetics products into low- to mid-
end and high-end products and abandon consumption taxes on low- to mid-end products in
the future and Korea’s mass brands (“Laneige,” “Mamonde,” and “Innisfree” of Amorepacific,
and “TheFaceShop” of LG Household & Health Care) stand to benefit.
2) Global cosmetics brands suffering in China: China’s FMCG markets, including cosmetics,
have strong growth potential, but major foreign brands are suffering there. Foreign brands are
enjoying high market shares only for personal care products (brand reliability is crucial) and
FMCG products developed by foreign brands. In 2013, foreign brands gained 2~3% market
share YoY for hair care products in China’s personal care product market, while they lost 6%
in the skincare and make-up product markets.
III. Global cosmetics firms’ valuations (p.13)
Cosmetics (OverWeight)
Company Rating TP (won)
Amorepacific BUY (M) 2,900,000 (M)
AmoreG HOLD (M) 1,200,000 (M)
LGH&H BUY (M) 690,000 (M)
Cosmax BUY (M) 120,000 (M)
Korea Kolmar BUY (M) 67000 (M)
Korea’s annual cosmetics NX
-500
-250
0
250
2000 2005 2010
($mn) (+) Net exports in 2014
(1Q14~3Q14)
Source: Yuanta Securities
Korea’s monthly cosmetics NX
-50
-25
0
25
50
Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14
($mn)
Source: Yuanta Securities
Contents
l. 2015 Korean cosmetics market outlook
ll. Changes in China’s cosmetics market
lll. Global cosmetics companies’ valuation table
Cosmetics
2015 cosmetics sector outlook
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Cosmetics
I. 2015 domestic cosmetics market outlook 1) Korea and overseas cosmetics market growth forecast
To forecast the Korean cosmetics market’s conditions for 2015, we estimated growth rates for the
Korean and Chinese cosmetics market,. China is Korea’s biggest cosmetics export destination,
with 22% of Korea’s export amount going to China (43% including Hong Kong). We compared the
growth rates of the cosmetics market and the GDPs of both Korea and China over the past 10
years. Cosmetics market growth outperformed GDP growth many times in both countries.
Considering the trading-down trend and growth of e-Commerce, as well as the emergence of
dermatologist treatments, the cosmetics market’s growth in both countries is likely to slightly
outpace GDP growth.
In conclusion, the domestic cosmetics market is forecast to grow by at least 5.0% in 2015 to reach
$10.8bn and the Chinese cosmetics market should grow by at least 8.0% to reach $51.6bn.
Korea’s cosmetics market growth forecast China’s cosmetics market growth forecast
Source: World Bank, Yuanta Securities Source: World Bank, Yuanta Securities
Korea’s cosmetics market value China’s cosmetics market value
Source: World Bank, Yuanta Securities Source: World Bank, Yuanta Securities
0
5
10
15
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014F
($bn)
CAGR 6.3%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014F
($bn)
CAGR 12.0%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014F
(YoY) Korea GDP YoY%Korea cosmetics market YoY%
5% growth expected in 2015
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014F
(YoY) China GDP YoY%China cosmetics market YoY%
8% growth expected in 2015
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Sector Report
The global cosmetics market grew 5.2% YoY in 2013 to $432bn, and posted a CAGR of 5.2% over
the past 14 years, including 2008, when the global fiscal crisis took place. L’Oreal, the world’s
number-one cosmetics firm by sales, expects the value of the global cosmetics market to double
to $800bn over the next 10~15 years.
Global cosmetics market continuing to grow
Source: Yuanta Securities
Beauty and personal care market scale by country and population (2013)
Country Beauty and Personal care
market size ($mn)MS (%) Population (mn) % of total
1 United States 73,256 17.0% 316 4.4%
2 China (excl HK) 44,220 10.2% 1,357 19.1%
3 Brazil 42,953 9.9% 200 2.8%
4 Japan 39,051 9.0% 127 1.8%
5 Germany 19,051 4.4% 81 1.1%
6 France 16,798 3.9% 66 0.9%
7 Russia 14,177 3.3% 144 2.0%
8 Italy 12,168 2.8% 60 0.8%
9 South Korea 9,818 2.3% 50 0.7%
10 India 9,793 2.3% 1,252 17.6%
11 Spain 9,266 2.1% 47 0.7%
12 Thailand 4,884 1.1% 67 0.9%
13 Turkey 4,108 1.0% 75 1.1%
14 Indonesia 3,796 0.9% 250 3.5%
15 Vietnam 993 0.2% 90 1.3%
Top 15 countries 304,332 70.4% 4,182 58.7%
Other countries 127,686 29.6% 2,943 41.3%
Total 432,018 100.0% 7,125 100.0%
Source: Yuanta Securities
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015F 2017F 2019F 2021F 2023F
($bn)
CAGR +5.2%
$704bn
CAGR +5.0%
$432bn
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Cosmetics
2) Chinese visitor growth and expectations for Korea’s duty-free shop growth
One of the major drivers of the Korean cosmetics sector’s growth in 2014 has been the marked
growth of duty-free cosmetics sales. Over 1Q14~3Q14, Amorepacific’s duty-free sales grew
102.2% YoY to W491.4bn, accounting for 25.7% of its domestic cosmetics sales. During the same
period, LG Household & Health Care’s duty-free cosmetics sales jumped 149.9% YoY to
W178.7bn, making up 15.9% of its domestic cosmetics sales.
The Chinese government implied that it would encourage its citizens to travel overseas from 2013
to ease yuan appreciation pressure. In 2014, the number of outbound Chinese travelers is forecast
at 114.23mn (+16.3.% YoY), of which 59.4mn (+37.3% YoY) are likely to visit Korea. With the
number of Chinese travelers to Korea likely to grow 30% YoY in 2015, duty-free cosmetics sales
should continue growing strongly.
Domestic duty-free stores are so busy with Chinese travelers that they have already reached their
limits in terms of sales capacity. However, existing duty-free stores plan to expand their store retail
space and the government is expected to grant more duty-free licenses. Thus, duty-free cosmetics
sales growth will likely continue to outpace Chinese traveler growth.
Among 17 domestic duty-free stores, most sales are generated in 10 downtown stores, six of
which are located in Seoul, two in Busan, and two in Jeju. The licenses for the remaining 7, newly
granted in 2012, are owned by SMEs and are located in provinces.
To meet demand from the rapid growth of Chinese visitors to Korea, the 10 downtown duty-free
stores are expected to expand their gross area by 42.8% by 2015. In addition, the government is
set to finalize its plan to allow more downtown duty-free stores in Seoul, Busan, and Jeju at end-
November, and grant three~six new licenses by end-2014.
Estimated number of China’s outbound travelers
No of Chinese outbound
travelers % YoY
China’s per-capita
GDP ($)
No of Chinese
travelers to Korea % YoY
Portion to
Korea (%)
2008 45,844,000 11.9% 3,424 1,167,891 9.3% 2.5
2009 47,656,000 4.0% 3,826 1,342,317 14.9% 2.8
2010 57,386,000 20.4% 4,437 1,875,157 39.7% 3.3
2011 70,250,000 22.4% 5,429 2,220,196 18.4% 3.2
2012 83,182,000 18.4% 6,194 2,836,892 27.8% 3.4
2013 98,190,000 18.0% 6,959 4,326,869 52.5% 4.4
2014E 114,230,000 16.3% 7,572 5,940,000 37.3% 5.2
2015E 127,650,000 11.7% 8,211 7,720,000 30.0% 6.0
2016E 140,140,000 9.8% 8,859 9,650,000 25.0% 6.9
2017E 154,330,000 10.1% 9,556 11,580,000 20.0% 7.5
2018E 170,100,000 10.2% 10,290 13,550,000 17.0% 8.0
Source: Yuanta Securities
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Sector Report
Monthly Chinese travelers to Korea Quarterly Chinese travelers to Korea
Source: Yuanta Securities Source: Yuanta Securities
Korea’s 10 downtown duty-free stores’ floor expansion
Company Branch Before (m2) After (m2) Growth (%) Re-opening
Lotte Main 8,994 10,800 20.1% Jul 2014
Jamsil 4,327 10,990 154.0% Oct 2014
Busan 5,415 6,600 21.9% Sep 2014
Jeju 2,292 2,292 0.0%
COEX 4,726 4,726 0.0%
Shilla Jangchung 6,999 6,999 0.0%
Jeju 3,841 11,361 195.8% Sep 2014
Dongwha 5,116 5,116 0.0%
SK (Walkerhill) 3,762 9,000 139.2% Aug 2015
Shinsegae 6,921 6,921 0.0%
Total 52,393 74,805 42.8%
Source: Yuanta Securities
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
12.01 12.07 13.01 13.07 14.01 14.07
Chinese entrants to Korea (L)
Growth (R)('000) (% YoY)
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
1Q05 1Q07 1Q09 1Q11 1Q13
Chinese entrants to Korea (L)Growth (R)
('000) (% YoY)
Chinese realestate bubble in
2007
Chinese real estate boom in
2010
Chinese real estate mkt recovery in
2013
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Cosmetics
3) Korea’s cosmetics exports growing sharply
Korea’s cosmetics imports have stagnated at W1tn since 2012, while cosmetics exports have
grown about 20% YoY. Korea’s cosmetics trade balance (including perfume and personal care
products) should turn positive in 2014, given that net exports over 1Q~3Q14 came to $233mn.
Given the effect of China’s Singles’ Day (Nov 11), net exports should exceed $403mn in 2014.
Korea’s major cosmetics firms’ 1Q14~3Q14 exports:
Amorepacific: W578.5bn (+39.2% YoY)
LG Household & Health Care: W272.7bn (+13.6% YoY)
Korea’s cosmetics imports Korea’s cosmetics exports
Source: Yuanta Securities Source: Yuanta Securities
Korea’s annual cosmetics trade balance Korea’s monthly cosmetics trade balance
Source: Yuanta Securities Source: Yuanta Securities
-50
-25
0
25
50
2013/01 2013/07 2014/01 2014/07
($mn)
-500
-250
0
250
2000 2005 2010
($mn)Net exports turned positive in 2014
(1Q14~3Q!$)
-25
0
25
50
75
100
0
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
2000 2005 2010
Cosmetics imports (LSH)YoY (RHS)
($mn) (%)
1Q14~3Q14
-25
0
25
50
75
100
0
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
2000 2005 2010
Cosmetics exports (LHS)YoY (RHS)
($mn) (%)
1Q14~3Q14
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Sector Report
Korea’s top 10 cosmetics export destinations
Source: Yuanta Securities
In the cosmetics market, new product launches are important. As Korean customers are famous
for being picky, the Korean market is regarded as one of the important test beds for global
cosmetics companies. When it comes to fast moving consumer goods (FMCG), it is known that
customers tend to choose a product from an entirely new product category. In other words, in the
cosmetics industry, a new product launches are likely to be more effective than improving existing
products. For example, after BB cream gained huge popularity in Korea, premium cosmetics
brands like Chanel also launched BB cream, and BB cream became a new make-up product
category in overseas markets. The trend-awareness of Korean consumers helps Korean
cosmetics firms and ODM/OEM companies fare well in overseas markets including China.
For FMCG goods, consumers tend to choose from entirely new product category
Source: Yuanta Securities
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
0
500
1,000
1,500
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
China Hong Kong JapanUS Taiwan ThailandSingapore Vietnam MalaysiaRussia Top 10 % of total exports (R)
($mn) (%)
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Cosmetics
II. Changes in China’s cosmetics market 1) Consumption tax likely to decline; benefits from Korea-China FTA
Chinese consumers think make-up products are not a luxury, rather than a necessity, with people
in small cities and rural areas more inclined to think this way. Thus, make-up products account for
just 6.9% of China’s cosmetics market, and the government imposes a 30% consumption tax on
make-up and functional products, because they are regarded as luxury goods. The government is
likely to re-categorize cosmetics products into low- to mid-end and high-end products and
abandon consumption taxes on low- to mid-end products in the future and Korea’s mass brands
(“Laneige,” “Mamonde,” and “Innisfree” of Amorepacific, and “TheFaceShop” of LG Household &
Health Care) stand to benefit.
Moreover, with the recent conclusion of a Korea-China free trade agreement, tariffs on cosmetics
(6% for skin care products, 8% for make-up products) are set to be lifted, which should benefit
Korean cosmetics firms with a high portion of exports to China (12% for Amorepacific).
Global cosmetics market, by product category (2013) China’s cosmetics market, by product category (2013)
Source: Yuanta Securities Source: Yuanta Securities
China’s tariffs and consumption taxes on luxury goods
Consumption
taxTariff VAT Note
Cosmetics 30% 6.5~150% 17%
Tariff: 8% for skin care, 10% for make-up products
Consumption tax: 30% for functional and make-up products
Likely to re-categorize cosmetics products into low- to mid-
end and high-end products and abandon consumption
taxes on low- to mid-end products
Apparel 0% 14~130% 17%
Bag 0% 10~100% 17%
Jewelry/precious
metal 5~10% 0%~130% 17%
High-end watch 20% 11~100% 17%
Golf goods 10% 12~50% 17%
Source: Yuanta Securities
10%
21%
8%
16%
36%
9%
SkincareHaircareMake-upFragrancesHygiene productsOral cosmetics
48%
16%
7%
2%
17%
10%
SkincareHaircareMake-upFragrancesHygiene productsOral cosmetics
9
Sector Report
2) Global cosmetics brands suffering in China
China’s FMCG markets, including cosmetics, have strong growth potential, but major foreign
brands are suffering there. Indeed, foreign brands enjoy high market shares only for personal care
products (brand reliability is crucial) and FMCG products developed by foreign brands. In 2013,
foreign brands gained 2~3% market share YoY for hair care products in China’s personal care
product market, while they lost 6% in both the skincare and make-up markets.
At end-Dec 2013, Revlon, a US door-to-door cosmetics seller with a 2% China sales portion,
announced that it would withdraw from China completely, and Avon Products, another door-to-
door cosmetics seller, is also suffering. L’Oreal announced in early 2014 that it would withdraw
Garnier, its mass market hair care brand, from China. The prevailing view is that Garnier priced its
products too high although it is low- to mid-end brand, and failed to appeal to consumers, as their
products were sold at Supermarkets.
In Aug 2013, L’Oreal agreed to acquire Magic Holdings, China’s mass market cosmetics brand, for
HK$6.5bn ($840mn). Garnier and Magic’s brand positions overlap, which is another reason for
L’Oreal’s withdrawal of Garnier. Magic Holdings (annual sales $218mn, net profit $27mn as of Jun
2013) owns the MG brand, which has the highest market share in the facial mask market (2012
M/S 26%). L’Oreal Paris and Maybelline New York (L’Oreal brands) have maintained the highest
sales in China among all cosmetics brands and make-up brands, respectively.
In Jul 2013, L Capital Asia, the private equity arm of global luxury group LVMH, decided to invest in
Marubi, China’s premium cosmetics brand (2012 sales RMB3bn or $489mn). While details have
not been disclosed, L Capital Asia is estimated to have invested $100mn for a 49% stake. For
reference, LVMH owns Sephora, a French cosmetics store chain.
The above-mentioned global cosmetics brands are suffering in China, because consumers in tier-
1 cities: 1) began to prefer China’s local cosmetics brands, which better understand Chinese
consumers’ preferences and demands; and 2) are looking for cost-effective cosmetics products.
For example, the third-largest and fastest-growing product category in China is facial masks,
whose annual sales rose 32% YoY to $799mn (as of Sep 2013). China’s facial mask market has
grown steeply since 2012, as many low-priced new products were launched. Chinese consumers
believe facial masks protect their skin from going dry and make their skin silky. Fan Bingbing, a
famous Chinese actress, said in many media interviews that she uses two facial masks a day, and
there were even pictures taken of her wearing a facial mask outdoors. The facial mask case shows
how different Chinese women’s beauty routines are from western women’s.
10
Cosmetics
Chinese and foreign brands’ portion in China’s FMCG market, by product category (2013)
Source: Yuanta Securities
Foreign brands’ Chinese FMCG market share (2013)
Source: Yuanta Securities
11
Sector Report
While global cosmetics brands are losing market share in China, Korean cosmetics brands are
growing fast on the back of the Korean Wave. L’Oreal saw the highest market share gains in
China’s cosmetics market over the past 10 years, but Nu Skin of the US and Amorepacific of
Korea saw the highest market share increases over the last year. However, Nu Skin’s market
share has fluctuated greatly.
Cosmetics market share in China
Company 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Chg
(2004~2013)
Chg
(2012~2013)
1 Procter & Gamble Co 15.0 17.3 17.3 16.9 15.9 15.3 14.9 14.5 14.1 13.5 -1.5 -0.6
2 L'Oréal Groupe 4.9 5.3 5.7 6.5 7.3 7.8 8.4 8.7 8.9 9.1 4.2 0.2
3 Unilever Group 4.5 4.2 3.8 3.4 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.7 -0.8 0.0
4 Shiseido Co Ltd 2.4 2.5 3.1 3.5 3.7 3.9 4.2 4.3 3.9 3.6 1.2 -0.3
5 Mary Kay Inc 1.2 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.3 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.8 1.6 0.2
6 Colgate-Palmolive Co 3.5 3.2 3.1 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.8 2.8 -0.7 0.0
7 Amway Corp 4.1 3.6 3.0 2.9 3.3 3.4 3.1 3.1 2.8 2.7 -1.4 -0.1
8 Beiersdorf AG 0.5 0.6 0.8 2.4 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.4 1.9 0.0
9 Johnson & Johnson Inc 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 2.4 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 0.3 0.0
10 Estée Lauder Cos Inc 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.6 1.8 1.9 1.6 0.1
11 Shanghai Jahwa United Co Ltd 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 0.8 0.1
12 Jala (Group) Co Ltd 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.4 0.1
13 Nu Skin Enterprises Inc 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 1.4 0.5 0.9
14 AmorePacific Corp 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.2 1.1 0.3
15 Jiangsu Longliqi Group Co Ltd 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 0.2 0.0
16 LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton SA 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.6 0.0
17 Shanghai Inoherb Cosmetics Co Ltd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.0
18 Henkel AG & Co KGaA 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.3 0.0
19 Yunnan Baiyao Group Co Ltd - 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.0 0.2
20 Guangdong Marubi Biotechnology Co Ltd - - - 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.1
21 Kao Corp 1.2 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 -0.5 0.0
22 Magic Holdings International Ltd - 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.1
23 Prince Frog International Holdings Ltd - - - - - - - 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.1
24 Chanel SA 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.0
25 Proya Cosmetics Co Ltd 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.0
Others 56.3 53.7 52.7 50.3 47.4 46.1 44.3 42.2 41.5 40.1 -16.2 -1.4
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Source: Yuanta Securities
12
Cosmetics
In the cosmetics market, more than 75% of new brands/products fail. The main reason is their
failure to differentiate themselves from existing products. For the past 10 years, the sales ranking
of the top 20 global cosmetics firms has remained almost unchanged. Since 2004, Amorepacific of
Korea and Natura Cosmeticos of Brazil are the only companies whose rankings have changed
significantly among the top 20 global brands. In South America, door-to-door is the largest
cosmetics distribution channel, and Natura Cosmeticos, the largest cosmetics firm in Brazil (Brazil
market share 12.4% in 2013) has 1.66mn door-to-door sales agents. With Amorepacific’s global
ranking rising sharply over the past 10 years, we believe it will become a major global name.
Top 20 global cosmetics companies
2004 2008 2013Ranking change
(2004~2013)Note
L’oréal 1 1 1 0
Unilever 3 3 2 1
Procter & Gamble Co. 2 2 3 -1
The Estée Lauder 5 4 4 1
Shiseido 4 7 5 -1
Avon Products 6 5 6 0
Beiersdorf 7 6 7 0
Johnson & Johnson 8 8 8 0
Chanel 13 10 9 4
Kao 10 9 10 0
Lvmh Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton 12 11 11 1
Coty 16 12 12 4
Henkel 14 13 13 1
L Brands 11 17 14 -3
Mary Kay 18 15 15 3
Colgate Palmolive 15 35 16 -1
Amorepacific 25 20 17
8Korea’s largest cosmetics firm; exports to Asia
Pasific rising
Natura Cosméticos 31 14 18
13Brazil’s largest cosmetics firm with 1.66mn door-to-
door sales agents
Alticor 21 19 19 2
Groupe Yves Rocher 17 16 20 -3
Source: Yuanta Securities
13
Sector Report
III. Cosmetics firms’ valuations
Cosmetics firms’ valuation table (2014E) ($mn)
Mkt
cap Sales OP NP
OPM
(%)
Sales
(% YoY)
OP
(% YoY)
ROE
(%)
2014E
P/E
2015E
P/E P/B
EV/
EBITDA
Price
(% YTD)
Market
YTD%
Global cosmetic companies
Procter & Gamble Co/The 238,08 84,020 15,867 12,142 18.9 -1.3 4.4 17.3 21.0 20.2 3.7 13.7 8.2 6.4
Unilever NV 119,78 60,916 8,974 5,913 14.7 -7.9 -10.1 31.0 19.7 18.2 6.4 11.1 7.2 2.5
L'Oreal SA 92,268 28,084 4,840 3,877 17.2 -8.0 -6.0 14.5 24.7 22.0 3.5 15.9 3.1 -2.2
Estee Lauder Cos Inc/The 27,078 10,888 1,781 1,200 16.4 7.7 19.8 33.7 23.4 24.6 7.2 13.4 -5.3 6.4
Beiersdorf AG 21,303 7,797 1,050 708 13.5 -4.4 -5.9 15.6 26.9 24.5 4.8 15.6 -8.3 -3.1
Kao Corp 19,968 11,988 1,166 675 9.7 -11.2 -8.9 12.1 28.8 25.0 3.7 10.3 36.0 7.4
Amorepacific Corp 11,804 3,441 509 369 14.8 21.4 50.6 14.8 33.7 27.4 4.6 20.6 122.4 -3.3
LG Household & Health Care 8,366 4,220 462 318 10.9 6.7 1.8 22.2 27.4 23.3 5.5 13.9 7.7 -3.3
Coty Inc 6,812 4,571 509 327 11.1 -2.1 -93.5 25.4 23.0 22.2 9.9 30.9 27.1 6.4
Shiseido Co Ltd 6,094 7,376 467 228 6.3 -7.2 57.3 8.1 29.2 21.2 2.1 9.5 4.8 7.4
Avon Products Inc 4,377 8,948 625 358 7.0 -10.1 46.4 27.5 12.2 11.4 4.8 17.9 -41.5 6.4
L'Occitane International SA 3,436 1,460 172 137 11.8 5.2 -12.9 12.9 27.3 23.5 3.6 13.1 9.3 3.4
Nu Skin Enterprises Inc 2,336 2,562 389 242 15.2 -19.4 -29.8 25.2 9.6 9.5 2.5 5.3 -71.5 6.4
Kose Corp 2,305 1,802 168 101 9.3 -8.1 31.7 9.1 24.5 23.5 2.0 9.1 32.5 7.4
Pola Orbis Holdings Inc 2,038 1,744 156 81 9.0 -11.2 -5.0 5.3 25.0 20.6 1.3 8.5 10.3 7.4
Fancl Corp 832 782 31 12 3.9 -19.2 -15.7 1.6 79.9 41.8 1.3 - 30.6 7.4
Avrg. 13.3 -3.7 1.9 17.2 26.4 21.9 4.1 13.6 10.8 3.7
Chinese cosmetic companies
Shanghai Jahwa United Co 4,073 866 177 158 20.4 19.2 44.6 24.6 25.6 20.9 6.6 - -12.0 17.1
Jumei International Holding 3,462 688 82 76 11.9 - 114.5 23.5 43.5 24.7 32.7 - - 6.4
Avrg. 19.2 79.6 24.1 34.6 22.8 19.7 - -12.0 11.8
Avrg. -2.5 9.6 17.9 27.2 22.0 5.6 13.6 9.6 4.5
Note: As of Nov 14, 2014 Source: Thomson, Yuanta Securities
Domestic cosmetic firms’ valuation table (2014E) (Wbn)
Mkt cap Sales OP NP OPM
(%)
Sales
(% YoY)
OP
(% YoY)
NP
(% YoY)
ROE
(%)
2014E
P/E (x)
2015E
P/E (x)
P/B
(x)
Returns
(% YTD)
AmorePacific 14,149 3,780 566 409 15.0 21.9 52.9 52.6 15.0 37.5 30.5 5.3 124.7
LG Life Science 9,792 4,625 504 348 10.9 6.9 1.6 -2.7 22.6 30.1 25.6 6.0 9.3
AmoreG 9,331 4,623 671 248 14.5 18.7 42.8 52.4 11.0 40.4 35.0 3.9 142.8
Korea Kolmar 1,127 455 42 31 9.2 61.2 112.5 123.3 24.5 34.0 29.8 7.9 94.9
Cosmax 864 355 32 22 8.9 - - - 22.4 40.0 28.5 8.9 -
Able C&C 290 461 -6 4 -1.2 4.1 TTR -69.1 2.3 74.4 14.9 1.7 -26.1
Average 22.6 52.4 31.3 16.3 42.7 27.4 5.6 69.1
Note: TTR = Turn to Red, as of Nov, 14, 2014
Source: DataGuide, Yuanta Securities
14
Cosmetics
Procter & Gamble P/E band (12-month forward) Unilever P/E band (12-month forward)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
price 12x 15x 18x 21x 24x(USD)
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
price 9x 12x 15x 18x 21x(EUR)
Source: Datastream, Yuanta Securities Source: Datastream, Yuanta Securities
L’Oreal P/E band (12-month forward) Estee Lauder P/E band (12-month forward)
0
40
80
120
160
200
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
price 11x 15x 19x 23x 27x(EUR)
0
20
40
60
80
100
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
price 11x 15x 19x 23x 27x(USD)
Source: Datastream, Yuanta Securities Source: Datastream, Yuanta Securities
Beiersdorf P/E band (12-month forward) Kao P/E band (12-month forward)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
price 12x 19x 26x 33x 40x(EUR)
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
price 15x 20x 25x 30x 35x(JPY)
Source: Datastream, Yuanta Securities Source: Datastream, Yuanta Securities
15
Sector Report
AmorePacific P/E band (12-month forward) LG Household & Healthcare Band (12-month forward)
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
price 12x 18x 24x 30x 36x(KRW)
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
price 6x 13x 20x 27x 34x(KRW)
Source: Datastream, Yuanta Securities Source: Datastream, Yuanta Securities
Coty P/E band (12-month forward) Shiseido P/E band (12-month forward)
0
5
10
15
20
25
'13‐07 '13‐10 '14‐01 '14‐04 '14‐07 '14‐10
price 15x 17x 19x 21x 23x(USD)
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
price 14x 21x 28x 35x 42x(JPY)
Source: Datastream, Yuanta Securities Source: Datastream, Yuanta Securities
Avon P/E band (12-month forward) L’Occitane P/E band (12-month forward)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
price 8x 13x 18x 23x 28x(USD)
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
price 14x 17x 20x 23x 26x(EUR)
Source: Datastream, Yuanta Securities Source: Datastream, Yuanta Securities
16
Cosmetics
Nu Skin P/E band (12-month forward) Kose P/E band (12-month forward)
0
40
80
120
160
200
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
price 5x 10x 15x 20x 25x(USD)
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
price 14x 18x 22x 26x 30x(JPY)
Source: Datastream, Yuanta Securities Source: Datastream, Yuanta Securities
Pola Orbis Holdings P/E band (12-month forward) Fancl P/E band (12-month forward)
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
2011 2012 2013 2014
price 12x 15x 18x 21x 24x(JPY)
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
price 10x 20x 30x 40x 50x(JPY)
Source: Datastream, Yuanta Securities Source: Datastream, Yuanta Securities
Shanghai Jahwa P/E band (12-month forward) Jumei P/E band (12-month forward)
0
20
40
60
80
100
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
price 18x 26x 34x 42x 50x(CNY)
0
20
40
60
'14‐05 '14‐06 '14‐07 '14‐08 '14‐09 '14‐10 '14‐11
price 18x 25x 32x 39x 46x(USD)
Source: Datastream, Yuanta Securities Source: Datastream, Yuanta Securities
17
Sector Report
Cosmetics distribution channel, by country
USA (%)
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Parapharmacies/Drugstores (↑) 13.5 13.5 13.5 14.0 14.0 14.4 14.7 15.2 15.4 15.7
Mass merchandisers (↓) 17.1 15.9 15.2 14.6 14.6 14.5 14.1 14.0 14.3 14.2
Department stores 15.0 15.1 14.8 14.5 13.9 13.2 13.4 13.8 14.0 14.1
Hypermarkets (↑) 8.2 9.3 10.5 11.2 11.9 12.7 12.9 12.8 12.7 12.7
Supermarkets 12.9 12.8 12.4 12.0 12.0 11.7 11.7 11.3 11.2 11.1
Beauty specialist retailers 6.2 6.3 6.3 6.4 6.5 6.6 6.6 6.8 6.9 7.1
Direct selling (↓) 9.0 8.6 8.4 8.2 8.1 7.9 7.5 7.1 6.7 6.4
Internet retailing (↑) 2.6 3.2 3.7 4.3 4.7 5.0 5.3 5.6 5.9 6.1
Hair salons 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.6 3.4 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.1
Warehouse clubs 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.3 2.9 2.8
Homeshopping 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.0 3.0 2.8 2.7
Variety stores 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.2
Other BPC non-grocery retailers 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9
Apparel specialist retailers 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6
Independent small grocers 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4
Other grocery retailers 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4
Convenience stores 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Chemists/Pharmacies 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Electronics and appliance specialist retailers 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Source: Yuanta Securities
China (%)
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Hypermarkets 23.4 25.8 27.5 27.8 27.7 27.8 27.2 25.4 25.1 23.9
Department stores (↓) 33.4 32.0 31.3 31.1 30.9 30.8 30.2 27.5 23.4 22.2
Internet retailing (↑) 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 2.6 5.3 10.5 13.5
Direct selling (↓) 15.4 12.9 10.9 10.4 10.2 10.1 10.4 12.3 12.0 12.4
Beauty specialist retailers (↑) 4.6 5.0 5.7 6.2 7.2 7.5 7.9 8.1 8.3 8.5
Supermarkets 7.0 8.3 8.7 9.2 9.4 9.3 9.0 8.6 8.3 7.6
Parapharmacies/Drugstores (↑) 4.3 4.9 5.9 6.2 6.3 6.7 6.9 6.9 7.1 7.2
Independent small grocers (↓) 8.8 7.7 6.5 5.9 5.0 4.3 3.2 2.9 2.3 1.7
Other non-grocery retailers 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.0
Convenience Stores 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.7
Homeshopping 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6
Chemists/Pharmacies 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4
Non-retail channels 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Hair salons 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Source: Yuanta Securities
18
Cosmetics
Hong Kong, China (%)
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Beauty specialist retailers (↑) 26.6 27.0 27.2 27.7 28.4 29.1 31.3 36.7 39.6 40.8
Department stores (↓) 25.3 25.9 25.8 26.1 25.4 24.7 23.4 20.1 18.2 18.3
Parapharmacies/Drugstores (↓) 22.5 22.3 22.0 21.5 21.3 21.3 20.5 18.9 18.0 17.3
Supermarkets 13.9 13.8 13.8 13.7 13.7 13.7 13.3 13.1 13.0 12.9
Direct selling 4.7 4.3 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9
Hair salons 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.3
Chemists/Pharmacies 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.3
Convenience stores 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.0
Internet retailing 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4
Independent small grocers 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3
Variety stores 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3
Electronics and appliance specialist retailers 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Source: Yuanta Securities
Brazil (%)
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Direct selling (↑) 28.3 28.2 27.7 27.3 26.7 26.3 31.3 36.7 39.6 40.8
Supermarkets (↓) 24.3 24.4 24.1 23.9 24.0 24.2 23.4 20.1 18.2 18.3
Beauty specialist retailers 15.9 16.1 17.3 17.5 17.7 17.7 20.5 18.9 18.0 17.3
Parapharmacies/Drugstores (↓) 14.5 14.9 15.1 15.4 15.8 16.2 13.3 13.1 13.0 12.9
Hypermarkets (↓) 12.6 12.0 11.4 11.1 10.9 10.7 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9
Internet retailing (↑) 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.4 1.5 1.5 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.3
Independent small grocers 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.3
Department stores 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.0
Outdoor markets 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4
Discounters 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3
Chemists/Pharmacies 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3
Hair salons 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Source: Yuanta Securities
19
Sector Report
Japan (%)
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Parapharmacies/drugstores (↑) 22.4 22.5 22.9 23.2 23.4 23.7 24.1 24.6 25.1 25.5
Beauty specialist retailers 14.3 14.6 14.7 14.9 15.1 15.2 15.3 15.2 15.0 14.6
Supermarkets 12.9 13.0 12.9 12.8 12.8 13.0 12.9 13.0 13.1 13.2
Department stores (↓) 11.5 11.4 11.2 10.9 10.6 10.2 9.7 9.5 9.3 9.2
Convenience stores 8.3 8.4 8.4 8.4 8.3 8.3 8.3 8.4 8.3 8.3
Internet retailing (↑) 6.0 6.2 6.4 6.5 6.6 6.6 6.8 6.9 7.2 7.4
Chemists/Pharmacies (↓) 8.0 7.9 7.9 7.9 7.9 8.1 7.8 7.4 7.2 6.9
Direct selling (↓) 6.4 6.0 5.9 5.8 5.6 5.4 5.3 5.2 5.2 5.1
Mass merchandisers 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.9 3.1
Homeshopping 2.3 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7
Furniture and homewares stores 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4
Variety stores 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9
Other BPC non-grocery retailers 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7
Electronics and appliance specialist retailers 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6
Hair salons 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6
Independent small grocers 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5
Other BPC health and beauty specialist retailers 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
France (%)
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Hypermarkets (↑) 23.7 24.1 24.5 24.5 24.5 24.5 24.6 24.5 24.6 24.7
Beauty specialist retailers 22.4 22.3 22.5 22.8 22.8 22.6 22.6 22.7 22.5 22.2
Supermarkets (↓) 21.2 20.3 19.2 18.5 18.3 18.4 18.4 18.4 18.5 18.5
Chemists/Pharmacies (↑) 10.4 10.8 11.0 11.2 11.4 11.4 11.5 11.5 11.5 11.6
Department stores 4.3 4.4 4.7 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.7
Internet retailing (↑) 1.6 2.0 2.8 3.2 3.6 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.2 4.5
Parapharmacies/Drugstores 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.9 3.9
Direct selling 2.1 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.2
Discounters 1.9 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.9 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9
Homeshopping (↓) 3.5 3.1 2.9 2.6 2.4 2.3 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.6
Variety stores 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.2
Convenience stores 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9
Independent small grocers 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
Electronics and appliance specialist retailers 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5
Other grocery retailers 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Hair salons 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3
Forecourt retailers 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2
Other non-grocery retailers 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Outdoor markets 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Source: Yuanta Securities
20
Cosmetics
Korea (%)
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Direct selling (↓) 24.5 23.4 23.3 23.5 24.1 24.0 23.7 23.6 23.4 22.1
Beauty specialist retailers(↓) 21.9 21.0 20.2 19.7 19.2 19.1 19.1 19.3 19.7 20.5
Department stores (↑) 14.8 14.4 14.5 15.0 15.2 15.3 15.5 15.9 15.9 15.9
Hypermarkets 13.2 14.2 14.7 14.6 14.5 14.6 14.9 14.4 14.0 13.8
Internet retailing (↑) 6.4 6.5 6.8 7.0 7.3 7.6 7.7 7.8 7.9 8.3
Supermarkets (↓) 7.4 7.6 7.2 6.8 6.5 6.3 6.0 5.9 5.8 5.5
Homeshopping (↑) 2.9 3.9 4.1 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.9
Parapharmacies/Drugstores (↑) 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.5 2.9
Independent small grocers (↓) 4.2 4.2 4.0 3.7 3.3 3.1 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.5
Convenience stores 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.9
Chemists/Pharmacies 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
Other BPC non-grocery retailers 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
21
Sector Report
Cosmetics net exports, by country (fragrance, cosmetics, and toiletries)
USA: cosmetics net exports China: cosmetics net exports
Source: Yuanta Securities Source: Yuanta Securities
Brazil: cosmetics net exports Japan: cosmetics net exports
Source: Yuanta Securities Source: Yuanta Securities
Germany: cosmetics net exports France: cosmetics net exports
Source: Yuanta Securities Source: Yuanta Securities
-1,000
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
United States($mn)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
China
($mn)
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
Brazil
($mn)
-1,800
-1,600
-1,400
-1,200
-1,000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
Japan
($mn)
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
Germany
($mn)
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
France
($mn)
22
Cosmetics
Russia: cosmetics net exports Italy: cosmetics net exports
Source: Yuanta Securities Source: Yuanta Securities
South Korea: cosmetics net exports India: cosmetics net exports
Source: Yuanta Securities Source: Yuanta Securities
Thailand: cosmetics net exports Turkey: cosmetics net exports
Source: Yuanta Securities Source: Yuanta Securities
-4,000
-3,500
-3,000
-2,500
-2,000
-1,500
-1,000
-500
0
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
Russia
($mn)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
Italy
($mn)
-800
-700
-600
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
South Korea
($mn)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
India
($mn)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
Thailand
($mn)
-600
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
Turkey
($mn)
23
Sector Report
Single-brand shop market in Korea (Top 9 brands)
Note: TheFaceShop, Missha, Etude House, Innisfree, SkinFood, Tonymoly, Nature Repulbilc, The Saem, It's Skin
Source: Company data, Yuanta Securities
Cosmetics OEM/ODM market in Korea (top 6 companies)
Source: Company data, Yuanta Securities
Single-brand shop market share (top 9 companies, 2013) Cosmetics OEM/ODM market share (top 10 companies, 2013)
Source: Yuanta Securities Source: Yuanta Securities
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
0
300
600
900
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Korea Kolmar Cosmax CosvisionIpeeres Cosmecca Korea EvercosYoY (R)
(Wbn)
TheFaceShop23%
Able C&C19%
Etude House16%
Innisfree 15%
Skin Food8%
Tonymoly8%
Nature Republic
8%
It's Skin2%
The Saem1%
Korea Kolmar28%
Cosmax 29%
Cosvision11%
Ipeeres8%
Cosmecca Korea
7%
Evercos6%Hankook
Cosmetics Manufacturing
4%
Genicos3%
LCC2%
UCL2%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
TheFaceShop (LGH&H) Missha (Able C&C) Etude (AmoreG)
Innisfree (AmoreG) Others Growth (R)(Wbn) (% YoY)
24
Cosmetics
Earnings of major cosmetic single-brand shops (Wbn)
2010 2011 2012 2013
The Face Shop Sales 29 32 43 49
Chg (% YoY) 12.4 9.9 34.4 15.1
Operating profit 5 5 8 9
OPM (%) 17.4 16.1 18.1 17.2
Able C&C Sales 24 31 43 40
Chg (% YoY) 34.2 25.7 39.1 -5.6
Operating profit 3 3 5 1
OPM (%) 11.8 10.9 12.2 1.3
Etude House Sales 16 22 28 34
Chg (% YoY) 40.9 32.9 30.5 20.2
Operating profit 2 2 2 3
OPM (%) 9.2 9.1 8.4 7.7
Innisfree Sales 8 14 23 33
Chg (% YoY) NA 69.4 63.5 45
Operating profit 1 2 4 5
OPM (%) 7.8 13.5 15.8 15
Skinfood Sales 16 18 18 17
Chg (% YoY) 7.7 9.9 34.4 15.1
Operating profit 1 1 1 0
OPM (%) 8.8 7.8 5.6 1.7
Tony Moly Sales 6 10 15 17
Chg (% YoY) 182.9 78.8 48.5 13.1
Operating profit 0 1 2 2
OPM (%) 4.2 12.6 10 11.4
Nature Republic Sales 5 9 13 17
Chg (% YoY) 141.4 91 41.6 33.7
Operating profit -1 1 0 0
OPM (%) -10.7 6 -3.4 -0.3
The SAEM Sales 1 2 4 3
International Chg (% YoY) NA 350 66.7 -3.8
Operating profit -1 -2 -1 -1
OPM (%) -280.4 -71.5 -27.8 -31.9
It’s Skin Sales 1 2 3 5
Chg (% YoY) 20 79.8 41.3 66.8
Operating profit 0 0 1
OPM (%) -5.8 8.8 16.4
Total Sales 106 139 189 217
Chg (% YoY) 40.6 31 35.8 14.5
Operating profit 10 14 20 19
OPM (%) 9.3 10 10.7 8.6
Source: Yuanta Securities
25
Sector Report
Amorepacific ratings and target price history
Date Rating TP (won)
2014/11/20 BUY 2,900,000
2014/11/11 BUY 2,900,000
2014/10/29 BUY 2,700,000
2014/10/06 BUY 2,700,000
2014/09/23 BUY 2,700,000
Source: Yuanta Securities
AmoreG ratings and target price history
Date Rating TP (won)
2014/11/20 HOLD 1,200,000
2014/11/11 HOLD 1,200,000
2014/10/29 BUY 1,200,000
2014/10/16 BUY 1,200,000
2014/10/06 BUY 1,200,000
2014/09/23 BUY 1,200,000
Source: Yuanta Securities
LGH&H ratings and target price history
Date Rating TP (won)
2014/11/20 BUY 690,000
2014/10/29 BUY 690,000
2014/10/23 BUY 690,000
2014/10/06 BUY 610,000
2014/09/23 BUY 610,000
Source: Yuanta Securities
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
Nov-12 May-13 Nov-13 May-14 Nov-14
Current PriceTarget Price
(won)
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
Nov-12 May-13 Nov-13 May-14 Nov-1
Current PriceTarget Price
(won)
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
Nov-12 May-13 Nov-13 May-14 Nov-1
Current PriceTarget Price
(won)
26
Cosmetics
Cosmax ratings and target price history
Date Ratings TP (won)
2014/11/20 BUY 120,000
2014/11/17 BUY 120,000
2014/10/29 BUY 134,000
2014/10/06 BUY 134,000
2014/09/23 BUY 134,000
Source: Yuanta Securities Korea Kolmar ratings and target price history
Date Ratings TP (won)
2014/11/26 BUY 69,000
2014/11/20 BUY 67,000
2014/10/29 BUY 67,000
2014/10/06 BUY 67,000
2014/09/23 BUY 67,000
Source: Yuanta Securities
Disclosures & disclaimers This research report has been prepared for informational purposes only; it does not constitute an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments. The information and data contained in this report have been obtained from sources we consider reliable; however, we make no representation that the information provided in this report is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. The recipient of this report should use his/her independent judgment regarding the sale or purchase of any securities or financial instruments mentioned herein. We disclaim any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this report or its contents. This report is for our clients only. It is copyrighted material and may not be reproduced, transmitted, quoted, or distributed in any manner without the prior written consent of Yuanta Securities Korea Co., Ltd.
As of the publication date of this report, Yuanta Securities Korea Co., Ltd. does not own a stake in excess of 1%, nor does it have any interest whatsoever, in the subject company (ies). The material contained herein was not disclosed by Yuanta Securities Korea Co., Ltd. to any institutional investors or third parties prior to its publication. The analyst (s) of this report or the analyst (s)’ spouse does not have any financial interest in the securities of the subject company (ies) mentioned herein, nor financial interest of any nature related to the subject company (ies) (including without limitation, whether it consists of any option, right, warrant, future, long or short position), as of the publication date of this report.
Analyst certification I/We, as the research analyst/analysts who prepared this research report, do hereby certify that the views expressed in this report accurately reflect my/our personal views about the subject securities discussed in this report.
Stock and sector ratings Stock ratings include an Investment Rating (Strong Buy, Buy, Hold, Sell) based on the expected absolute return of a stock over
the next 6 -12 months. - Strong Buy: Expected to return 30% or more - Buy: Expected to return between 10% and 30% - Hold: Expected to return between -10 and +10%
- Sell: Expected to return -10% or less
Sector ratings suggest 6 to 12 - month forward investment weighting of a given sector compared to its market capitalization weighting.
- Overweight: Investment weighting is higher than the market capitalization weighting - Neutral: Investment weighting is equal to the market capitalization weighting - Underweight: Investment weighting is lower than the market capitalization weighting
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
Apr-14 Oct-14
Current PriceTarget Price
(won)
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
Nov-12 May-13 Nov-13 May-14 Nov-14
Current PriceTarget Price
(won)
27
Sector Report
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28
Cosmetics