14.03.20.00.eng.mexico risk profile

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MEXICO RISK PROFILE ANALYSIS TO HELPS INVESTOR ABU BAKAR ASHIDIQY, MASTER MANAGEMENT, STATE UNIVERSITY OF JAKARTA, 2014

description

Guidelines Risk to invest in Mexico, the plus minus outlook, to helps investor to analysis the risk both likelihood and impact, as a part of Global Finance Risk Management, (Moody’s rating credit investment BAA1 in 2013 and significant increase A3 in 2014), so Mexico is going to more bright on Investment )basically Mexico is still very interesting especially on Oil and Mining Minerals

Transcript of 14.03.20.00.eng.mexico risk profile

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MEXICO RISK PROFILE A N A LY S I S T O H E L P S I N V E S T O R

A B U B A K A R A S H I D I Q Y , M A S T E R M A N A G E M E N T , S T A T E U N I V E R S I T Y O F J A K A R T A , 2 0 1 4

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MEXICO INTO DEEPER

CONTENTS ASPECTS

FACTS 1 MEXICO MAPS

FACTS 2 GEOHISTORY, DEMOGRAFI,

FACTS 3 ECONOMIE

FACTS 4 POLITICS & LAW

FACTS 5 OPPORTUNITY

FACTS 6 ANALYSIS

FACTS 7 RECOMMENDATION

A B U B A K A R A S H I D I Q Y , M A S T E R M A N A G E M E N T , S T A T E U N I V E R S I T Y O F J A K A R T A , 2 0 1 4

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FACTS 1, MEXICO MAPS

A B U B A K A R A S H I D I Q Y , M A S T E R M A N A G E M E N T , S T A T E U N I V E R S I T Y O F J A K A R T A , 2 0 1 4

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FACTS 2, GEOHISTORY, DEMOGRAFI

FULL NAME UNITED MEXICAN STATES

POPULATION 116 MILLION (UN, 2012), MEXICO IS A NATION WHERE AFFLUENCE,

POVERTY, NATURAL SPLENDOR

MANY POOR MEXICANS HAVE CROSSING BORDER TO US WITH SPAN

3,000 km, TO SEARCH A JOB, MANY OF THEM KILLED SHOOTS OR

ARRESTED

CAPITAL MEXICO CITY

AREA 1.96 MILLION SQ KM (758,449 SQ MILES)

MAJOR

LANGUAGE

SPANISH

RELIGION/

ETNICITY

CHRISTIANITY/ LATINA, AZTEC, AFRO AMERICAN, ETC

MONETARY UNIT 1 PESO = 100 CENTAVOS

MAIN EXPORTS MACHINARY, TRANSPORT EQUIPMENT, MINERALS, FOOD, LUBRICANTS,

LIVESTOCKS, OIL

A B U B A K A R A S H I D I Q Y , M A S T E R M A N A G E M E N T , S T A T E U N I V E R S I T Y O F J A K A R T A , 2 0 1 4

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FACTS 3, MEXICO ECONOMIE

MEXICO IS SECOND LARGEST ECONOMY IN AMERICA

PRODUCER & EXPORTER MAJOR OIL

ONE- THIRD OF GOVERNMENT REVENUE STILL TO COMES FROM INDUSTRY

POOR IS FACTS, PROSPERITY STILL REMAINS A DREAM

HIGH SOCIO ECONOMIC GAPS AS MAJOR TRIGGERS INCLUDING THE BRAZIL

SEEN BOOM FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT AFTER RECESSION IN BETWEEN

2008/ 2009

MOODY’S RATING CREDIT INCREASE SIGNIFICANT FROM BAA1 IN 2013,

BECOME A3 IN 2014, SO MEXICO IS GOING MORE OPTIMISM INVESTMENT

GRADE COUNTRY

EVER HIT HARD BY CREDIT CRUNCH OF 2008, EXPERIENCE DEEPEST

ECONOMIC SLUMP SINCE 1930s.

TODAY, ITS ECONOMY HAS RECOVERY THEN, GLOOMING FOREIGN DIRECT

INVESTMENT COMPANIES BILLIONS DOLLAR , CLIMBING NEARLY 30% IN THE

FIRTS SIX MONTHS OF 2010 FROM A YEAR EARLIER

A B U B A K A R A S H I D I Q Y , M A S T E R M A N A G E M E N T , S T A T E U N I V E R S I T Y O F J A K A R T A , 2 0 1 4

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FACTS 4, MEXICO POLITICS & LAW

POLITICS WERE DOMINATED FOR 70 YEARS BY THE INSTITUTIONAL

REVOLUTIONARY PARTY

ELECTION IN 2000 THAT VICENTE COS BECAME THE FIRTS PRESIDENT

COME FROM OPPOSITION

THEN INSTITUTIONAL REVOLUTIONARY PARTY RETURNED TO POWER IN 2012

WITH ENRIQUE PENA NIETO AS PRESIDENT

EXPANSIONING THE TRANSPORT, HEALTHCARE, CAREFUL FINANCIAL

MANAGEMENT SYSTEM, DURING SIX YEARS AS GOVERNOR MEXICO CITY

DECLARATION TO WAR AGAINTS DRUGS CARTEL, BUILDING PARA MILITARY

TO ERODES DRUGS CARTEL REBELLIONS

A B U B A K A R A S H I D I Q Y , M A S T E R M A N A G E M E N T , S T A T E U N I V E R S I T Y O F J A K A R T A , 2 0 1 4

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TELECOMMUNICATION, HOUSING, PORT, INFRASTRUCTURE , WATER

MANAGEMENT, AND INDUSTRY

ACCORDING THE WORLD BANK, PRIVATES INVESTMENT PEAKS AROUND USD

130 BLLIONS IN1997 AND DROPPED TO USD BILLIONS IN 2003

ONE FASTEST COUNTRY TO OPEN BUSINESS WIDE, EVENT TO COMPARE

CHINA AND INDIA, ON 6 (SIX) PROCHEDURES, NUMBER 2(TWO) AFTER

CANADA

ECOSYSTEM DIVERSITY, ALLOW TO PRODUCE VARIETY OF AGRICULTURAL

PRODUCTS, ESPECIALLY SPRING & SUMMER

RICH IN LIVESTOCKS

HIGH NATURAL RESOURCES IN OIL, MINING : SILVER , COPPER, BISMUTH,

ARSENIC, ZINC

FACTS 5, MEXICO OPPORTUNITY

A B U B A K A R A S H I D I Q Y , M A S T E R M A N A G E M E N T , S T A T E U N I V E R S I T Y O F J A K A R T A , 2 0 1 4

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FACTS 6, MEXICO RISK ANALYSIS

REPREMUM

RISK

TOP RISK MEDIUM RISK LOW RISK RANKS IMPACT MITIGATES

DRUGS WAR 4 CATASTRHOPIC AVOID

POLITICAL

FRICTION

3 STOP THE

BUSINES

NEUTRAL

CORRUPTION 2 DISTURBANCE AIN’T

DONATES

PENETRATION

CHINESE

PRODUCT

1 COMPETITION NEGLIGENCE,

OUR

BUSINESS IN

MINING

ENTIRELY 2010 THEN AFTER, MEXICO GOVERNMENT IS CAMPAIGNING ACTIVE THE DRUGS WAR, IT IS

STILL APPEARING ON SEVERAL CAPITAL CITY OF MEXICO, SHOOTS BY UNKNOWN PEOPLE

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FACTS 7, MEXICO RECOMMENDATION

VERY OPPORTUNITY PARTICULAR INVEST IN OIL AND SILVER MINING,

AMID SOME WORRY DUE TO DRUGS WAR & LAW UNCERTAINTY

ASSUMMING TO GO AHEAD TO INVEST IN MEXICO WITH DEPLOY

SECURITY POLICY

IT MAY BE POTENTIAL TO TRADE LIVESTOCKS BETWEEN MEXICO

WIHOUT TO BUILD PLANT CATTLE DIRECT TO MEXICO

MEXICO AS ONE LARGEST EXPORTER TO THE UNITED STATES WHICH IS

AMOUNT USD 277 BILLION, WITH 80% OCCUPATION

CHINA IS AGRESSIVELY EXPORTING CHEAPER PRODUCTS TO MEXICO,

WHILE MEXICO ALSO GETTING OPPORTUNITY IN THIS TRADE, WHEN

SEVERAL COUNTRY A WORRYING TO CONDUCT BUSINESS

A B U B A K A R A S H I D I Q Y , M A S T E R M A N A G E M E N T , S T A T E U N I V E R S I T Y O F J A K A R T A , 2 0 1 4

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MEXICO

DISCUSS PLEASE

A B U B A K A R A S H I D I Q Y , M A S T E R M A N A G E M E N T , S T A T E U N I V E R S I T Y O F J A K A R T A , 2 0 1 4