Apr 18, 20231

Science and Technology Infusion PlanScience and Technology Infusion Plan

forforSevere WeatherSevere Weather

Science and Technology Infusion PlanScience and Technology Infusion Plan

forforSevere WeatherSevere Weather

Daniel MeléndezDaniel Meléndez

NWS S&T CommitteeNWS S&T CommitteeSeptember 17, 2002September 17, 2002

Apr 18, 20232

OutlineOutline

• Team CompositionTeam Composition

• Vision / BenefitsVision / Benefits

• Goals / TargetsGoals / Targets

• Key Information Gaps Key Information Gaps

• Key SolutionsKey Solutions

• Outstanding R & D NeedsOutstanding R & D Needs

• SummarySummary

Apr 18, 20233

Severe WeatherSevere WeatherTeam CompositionTeam Composition

• Daniel Meléndez (NWS/OST)Daniel Meléndez (NWS/OST)

• Richard Okulski (NWS/OS)Richard Okulski (NWS/OS)

• John Weaver (NESDIS)John Weaver (NESDIS)

• Don Burgess (OAR/NSSL)Don Burgess (OAR/NSSL)

• Robert Saffle (OST)Robert Saffle (OST)

• Steve Weiss (SPC)Steve Weiss (SPC)

• Ron Przybylinski (WFO/STL)Ron Przybylinski (WFO/STL)

• Dan Smith (SRH)Dan Smith (SRH)

• Liz Quoetone (WDTB)Liz Quoetone (WDTB)

• John Ferree (WDTB)John Ferree (WDTB)

• David Sharp (WFO/MLB)David Sharp (WFO/MLB)

• Terry Schuur (OAR/NSSL)Terry Schuur (OAR/NSSL)

• Brian Motta (NWS/OCWWS)Brian Motta (NWS/OCWWS)

• Bard Zajac (U. No. Co.)Bard Zajac (U. No. Co.)

Apr 18, 20234

Severe WeatherSevere WeatherVision / BenefitsVision / Benefits

2025 Vision

• Tornado Warning Lead Times Beyond

Tornadic Lifetimes ( 30 min) at 1-km

resolution

2025 Vision

• Tornado Warning Lead Times Beyond

Tornadic Lifetimes ( 30 min) at 1-km

resolution

• Save Lives

• Increased Lead Times Enables Necessary Actions to Minimize Impact of Severe Local Storms

• Millions in Savings to Transportation & Similar Industries

Apr 18, 20235

Severe WeatherSevere WeatherGoals/Targets to FY 12Goals/Targets to FY 12

Existing GPRA Existing GPRA Performance MeasurePerformance Measure

FY01 FY01 SkillSkill

FY07 GoalFY07 Goal FY12 Target FY12 Target

Tornado Warning Lead Tornado Warning Lead Time (min)Time (min)

10 10 1414 18 18

Tornado Warning PODTornado Warning POD 68%68% 74%74% 78%78%

Tornado Warning FARTornado Warning FAR 72%72% 68%68% 64%64%

Other Performance Other Performance MeasureMeasure

FY01 FY01 SkillSkill

FY07 TargetFY07 Target FY12 TargetFY12 Target

Severe Thunderstorm Severe Thunderstorm Warning Lead Time (min)Warning Lead Time (min)

1616 1818 22 22

Severe Thunderstorm Severe Thunderstorm Warning PODWarning POD

80%80% 83%83% 88%88%

Severe Thunderstorm Severe Thunderstorm Warning FARWarning FAR

44%44% 40%40% 35%35%

On Track

Low Risk

High Risk

Apr 18, 20236

Severe WeatherSevere Weather Goals/Targets to FY 12Goals/Targets to FY 12

Existing GPRA (G) or Strategic Plan Existing GPRA (G) or Strategic Plan (S) Performance Measure(S) Performance Measure

Current Current SkillSkill

FY07 FY07 Goal TargetGoal Target

FY12 FY12 Target Target

Tornado Warning Lead Time (min) (G)Tornado Warning Lead Time (min) (G) 10 10 1414 1616 18 18

Tornado Warning POD (G)Tornado Warning POD (G) 68%68% 74%74% 76%76% 78%78%

Tornado Warning FAR (G)Tornado Warning FAR (G) 72%72% 68%68% 68%68% 64%64%

Severe Thunderstorm Warning Lead Severe Thunderstorm Warning Lead Time (min) (S)Time (min) (S)

1616 1818 1919 22 22

Severe Thunderstorm Warning POD (S)Severe Thunderstorm Warning POD (S) 80%80% 83%83% 85%85% 88%88%

Severe Thunderstorm Warning FAR (S)Severe Thunderstorm Warning FAR (S) 44%44% 40%40% 38%38% 35%35%

On Track Low Risk High Risk

Apr 18, 20237

Severe WeatherSevere WeatherKey Information GapsKey Information Gaps

• Higher Resolution and Higher Resolution and DensityDensity Storm-Scale DataStorm-Scale Data

• Improved Specification and Improved Specification and Forecasting of Pre-Storm Forecasting of Pre-Storm EnvironmentEnvironment

• Improved Specification and Improved Specification and Forecasting of BoundariesForecasting of Boundaries

• Improved Understanding Improved Understanding and Specification of Severe and Specification of Severe Weather SignaturesWeather Signatures

• Improved Verification Improved Verification

Apr 18, 20238

GapGap SolutionSolution ImpactImpact

Higher Resolution Higher Resolution and Densityand Density Storm-Storm-Scale DataScale Data

• Finer/Faster Volume Coverage Patterns Finer/Faster Volume Coverage Patterns (ORPG)(ORPG)

• Angular resolution (0.5Angular resolution (0.5ºº radials, ORDA) radials, ORDA)

• 1/4km Reflectivity (ORDA)1/4km Reflectivity (ORDA)

• WSR-88D + TDWR Data IntegrationWSR-88D + TDWR Data Integration• Local-Scale Model (3km WRF)Local-Scale Model (3km WRF)

• MDCRS Data AssimilationMDCRS Data Assimilation• Rapid Algorithm Update (ORPG)Rapid Algorithm Update (ORPG)

• Up to 40% Up to 40% Improvement in Improvement in DetectionDetection

• Several Minutes Several Minutes Improvement in Lead Improvement in Lead timetime

Improved Improved Specification and Specification and Forecasting of Pre-Forecasting of Pre-Storm EnvironmentStorm Environment

• WSR-88D + TDWR Data IntegrationWSR-88D + TDWR Data Integration

• Finer/Faster Volume Coverage Patterns Finer/Faster Volume Coverage Patterns

• Range/Velocity Dealising (ORDA)Range/Velocity Dealising (ORDA)• More and Improved Data Assimilation More and Improved Data Assimilation

(e.g., MDCRS, 88D Radial Speeds…)(e.g., MDCRS, 88D Radial Speeds…)• Modeling (GFS, Hi-Resolution WRF)Modeling (GFS, Hi-Resolution WRF)

• TrainingTraining• Satellite Remote SensingSatellite Remote Sensing

• Improved Forecast Improved Forecast of Long-lived Severe of Long-lived Severe Weather SystemsWeather Systems

• Improved PODImproved POD

Severe WeatherSevere Weather Key S&T SolutionsKey S&T Solutions

Apr 18, 20239

GapGap SolutionSolution ImpactImpact

Improved Improved Understanding and Understanding and Specification of Specification of Severe Weather Severe Weather SignaturesSignatures

• Dual PolarizationDual Polarization

• Enhanced SCAN (WDSS)Enhanced SCAN (WDSS)

• Total Lightning DataTotal Lightning Data

• Improved VerificationImproved Verification

• Continued R&DContinued R&D

• Local-Scale ModelingLocal-Scale Modeling

• ““Climatology” of StormsClimatology” of Storms

• TrainingTraining

• Improved FARImproved FAR

• Improved PODImproved POD

• Improved Lead TimeImproved Lead Time

• Improved Adaptive Improved Adaptive Observational Observational StrategiesStrategies

Improved Improved Specification and Specification and Forecasting of Forecasting of BoundariesBoundaries

• WSR-88D + TDWR Data Integration WSR-88D + TDWR Data Integration

• Finer/Faster Volume Coverage Finer/Faster Volume Coverage Patterns Patterns

• Higher Resolution Satellite Remote Higher Resolution Satellite Remote SensingSensing

• Better Sampling of Better Sampling of Boundaries Improves Boundaries Improves PODPOD

• Storm InitiationStorm Initiation

Improved Verification Improved Verification • More and Better Trained SpottersMore and Better Trained Spotters

• Enhanced WFO EffortEnhanced WFO Effort

• Improved Spotter-WFO CommImproved Spotter-WFO Comm

• Polygon Verification Polygon Verification

• More Accurate More Accurate Performance DataPerformance Data

• Improved FARImproved FAR

Severe WeatherSevere Weather Key S&T SolutionsKey S&T Solutions

Apr 18, 202310

Severe Weather Severe Weather Key S&T SolutionsKey S&T Solutions

Current Programmatic PhaseCurrent Programmatic Phase

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 1202

*Dual Pol *Dual Pol

WRFWRF EnsemblesEnsembles EnsemblesEnsembles

Deployment

OTE

DTE

R&D

ObservationsObservations

DA/ModelsDA/Models

Satellite Remote SensingSatellite Remote Sensing

SCAN+ SCAN+

*ORPG/Finer and FasterVCPs/ORDA/TDWR+*ORPG/Finer and FasterVCPs/ORDA/TDWR+

Enabling ProcessEnabling Process

*Training PDT*Training PDTTrainingTraining

WESWES

*Severe Weather R&D*Severe Weather R&D

MDCRS Water Vapor/EDRMDCRS Water Vapor/EDR

Apr 18, 202311

Severe WeatherSevere WeatherOutstanding R&D NeedsOutstanding R&D Needs

• Improved Understanding of Tornado FormationImproved Understanding of Tornado Formation

• Improved Understanding of Severe Weather MeteorologyImproved Understanding of Severe Weather Meteorology

• Objective VerificationObjective Verification

• Improved Cloud-Scale ModelsImproved Cloud-Scale Models

• Improved Situational Awareness Tools and TrainingImproved Situational Awareness Tools and Training

• Improved Understanding of Total Lightning Data in Severe Improved Understanding of Total Lightning Data in Severe Weather ForecastingWeather Forecasting

• Improved Understanding of Radar Polarimetry in Severe Weather Improved Understanding of Radar Polarimetry in Severe Weather ForecastingForecasting

• Improved Understanding of Predictability LimitsImproved Understanding of Predictability Limits

• Improved Understanding of Socioeconomic ImpactImproved Understanding of Socioeconomic Impact

Apr 18, 202312

Severe WeatherSevere Weather SummarySummary

R&D NeedsR&D Needs

• TornadogenesisTornadogenesis• R&D on severe weatherR&D on severe weather

• Objective verificationObjective verification

• Cloud-scale modelsCloud-scale models

• Situational awareness tools and Situational awareness tools and trainingtraining

• R&D on total lightning data and R&D on total lightning data and radar polarimetry data radar polarimetry data

• Predictability LimitsPredictability Limits

• Improved Understanding on Improved Understanding on Socioeconomic ImpactSocioeconomic Impact

• WSR88D Radar Upgrades

• TDWR integration

• WES/Training

• MDCRS

• Implement WRF

• Deploy Advanced Ensemble Techniques

• Dual Polarization

• New Satellite Remote Sensing

• Enhanced Training

Vision

Incr

easi

ng

P

erfo

rman

ceIn

crea

sin

g

Per

form

ance

R&D

20072007 20122012 2020202020022002

•Tornado Warning Lead Times

Beyond Tornadic Lifetimes

( 30 min) at 1-km resolution

Apr 18, 202313

Severe WeatherSevere WeatherSummarySummary

• Severe weather warning and detection FY07 Severe weather warning and detection FY07 improvements will be driven by observational improvements will be driven by observational (radar) increases in resolution and coverage(radar) increases in resolution and coverage

• Need continued training and severe weather Need continued training and severe weather research as part of threshold progressresearch as part of threshold progress

• Improved verification is critical to overall progressImproved verification is critical to overall progress

• FAR is a consequence of verification accuracy so FAR is a consequence of verification accuracy so emphasis should be on detectionemphasis should be on detection

• Synoptic forecasting models on trackSynoptic forecasting models on track

Apr 18, 202314

• BACKGROUND SLIDESBACKGROUND SLIDES

Severe WeatherSevere Weather

Apr 18, 202315

Annual Mean Tornado Lead Time

Lead Time

TOR lead time Actual

TOR lead time Goal

TOR Lead Time Fit

Year

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

GPRA_REVISED_FEB02_DM.PDW

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

TOR

lead

time,

min

POD

TOR POD Fit

Tornado accuracy actual

TOR POD goal

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Year

Mean Annual Tornado Accuracy (POD)

40.0

45.0

50.0

55.0

60.0

65.0

70.0

75.0

80.0

PO

D

TOR FAR

TOR FAR goal

Tornado FAR actual

TOR FAR fit

Tornado Mean Annual FAR

40.0

45.0

50.0

55.0

60.0

65.0

70.0

75.0

To

rna

do

FA

R

80.0

Year

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Apr 18, 202316

• WSR-88D Lesson: WSR-88D Lesson: New technologies New technologies temporarily raise temporarily raise POD at the POD at the expense of FAR expense of FAR

• Long-term FAR Long-term FAR reduction trails reduction trails POD increasePOD increase

Severe WeatherSevere WeatherWhy FAR May Be at High Risk?Why FAR May Be at High Risk?

Apr 18, 202317

Severe TS lead time actual

SVR TS LeadTime, Fit

Year

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

GPRA_REVISED_FEB02_DM.PDW

15

16

17

18

19

20

Seve

re TS

lead

time,

min

Legend

SVR TS POD FIT

Severe TS POD Actual

GPRA_REVISED_FEB02_DM.PDW

65.0

70.0

75.0

80.0

85.0

90.0

Sev

ere

TS

PO

D

1992 1996 2000 2004 2008

Year

Year

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

GPRA_REVISED_FEB02_DM.PDW

42.0

44.0

46.0

48.0

50.0

52.0

54.0

56.0

Seve

reT

S FA

R

SevereTS FAR actual

SVR TS FAR Fit

Apr 18, 202318

Descriptive Statistics:

Constant = -131.1915

Coefficient = 0.0708

Rsqr = 0.053

Tornado Lead Times

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Year

Min

ute

s

U95

Trend

Actual

L95

T-value for slope = 0.53

2-tailed t-test 95% CI w/ 5 degrees of freedom = 2.57

Apr 18, 202319

Descriptive Statistics:

Constant = 10.0956

Coefficient = -0.0047

Rsqr = 0.127

Tornado False Alarm Rate

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Year

Pro

po

rtio

n U

nd

etec

ted

T-value for slope = -0.85

2-tailed t-test 95% CI w/ 5 degrees of freedom = 2.57

U95

Trend

Actual

L95

Apr 18, 202320

Descriptive Statistics:

Constant = -31.8362

Coefficient = .0163

Rsqr = 0.623

Tornado Probability of Detection

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Year

Pro

bab

ility

T-value for slope = 2.87

2-tailed t-test 95% CI w/ 5 degrees of freedom = 2.57

U95

Trend

Actual

L95

Apr 18, 202321

Apr 18, 202322

Vision 2025 – Storm Scale Vision 2025 – Storm Scale ModelingModeling

Apr 18, 202323

Severe WeatherSevere WeatherPrimary Customers/PartnersPrimary Customers/Partners

Apr 18, 202324

Severe WeatherSevere WeatherKey Products/ServicesKey Products/Services

Apr 18, 202325

Severe WeatherSevere WeatherS & T RoadmapS & T Roadmap

• (Insert Spreadsheet)(Insert Spreadsheet)

Observing System Metadata - Radar

22-Jul-02 ORPG

ORDA / Faster RPM

Over- Sampling /

"Whitening"

2xPole / Full Spectrum

Power Anal

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

# Radars ???? ????

% Coverage CONUS (lowest tilt 1Km AGL or less)

Lowest tilt to RPG ????

# radials 360 360 360 720 720 720 720 720 720 720

#beam res 1 degree 1 degree 1 degree 0.5 Degree 0.5 Degree 0.5 Degree 0.5 Degree 0.5 Degree 0.5 Degree 0.5 Degree

# tilts 14 / Volume 14 / Volume 14 / Volume 14 / Volume 14 / Volume 14 / Volume 14 / Volume 14 / Volume 14 / Volume 14 / Volume

Max tilts (Lo/Mid/Hi)

VCP (min) 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3

VCP, user selectable No Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes

PRF ???? ????

Power (klystron), Peak 750Kw 750Kw 750Kw 750Kw 750Kw 750Kw 750Kw 750Kw 750Kw 750Kw

Max Range (dbz/vel) (km) 460/230 460/230 460/230 460/230 460/350 460/350 460/350 460/350 460/350 460/350

Max Tilt Angle ???? ???? ????

Min Tilt Angle 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5

#product precision (bits) 4 (16 levels) 8 (256 levels)8 (256 levels) 8 (256 levels) ????

reflectivity 1Km 1Km 1Km 0.25Km 0.25Km 0.25Km 0.25Km 0.25Km 0.25Km 0.25Km

velocity 0.25Km 0.25Km 0.25Km 0.25Km 0.25Km 0.25Km 0.25Km 0.25Km 0.25Km 0.25Km

spectrum width 0.25Km 0.25Km 0.25Km 0.25Km 0.25Km 0.25Km 0.25Km 0.25Km 0.25Km 0.25Km

Max Range Folding % (<=) 50 50 50 20 20 10 10 10 10 10

Products ???? ????

Precip ID POD (rain/snow/sleet) ???? Imprv Precip ID

Icing Potential (POD, FAR) ???? ????

MESO (POD, FAR)

TVS (POD, FAR)

HAIL Size (RMS) Imprd Hail Size

Downrush (RMS)

Clutter Surpression Ratio (precip/non-precip)

Clutter Supr Imprv

Imprvd Clutter Supr

Snow Liquid H2O Equiv None Yes Yes Yes

VAD Wind (RMS) mps 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2

Cost

ORPG Upgrade $70K

ORDA Upgrade $21.6M

Dual Polarization $34.3M

Phased Array

Base

Dissemination

RPG-AWIPS

#products

Latency

bandwidth 56K 56K 56K 1.5Mb 1.5Mb 1.5Mb 1.5Mb 1.5Mb

RPG product volume (Mb /day)

availability load shed load shed load shed