14 August 2020irpc.listedcompany.com/misc/PRESN/20200817-irpc-am-2q2020.pdf · + International...
Transcript of 14 August 2020irpc.listedcompany.com/misc/PRESN/20200817-irpc-am-2q2020.pdf · + International...
14 August 2020
2
AGENDA
CEO Agenda
Operation & Financial Performance
Industry Outlook
2Q20 & 1H20 Highlight
QoQ - Unchanged
3
Key DriversCrude oil prices rebounded after OPEC+ production cuts
Crude Oil Price (avg)
Gross Refining Margin (GRM)
Foreign Exchange (avg)
Product to Feed Margin (PTF)
Unit: $/bbl Unit : THB/USD
Unit: $/bbl Unit: $/bbl
YoY 5%
QoQ 206%
YoY 10%
2Q20 (End 31.07)
31.78
Dubai QoQ 40%
Dubai YoY 55%
QoQ depreciated 2%
YoY depreciated 1%
31.76
YoY 26% YoY 14%
1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20
Brent 63.20 68.85 61.94 63.21 50.26 29.20
Dubai 63.53 67.36 61.16 62.05 50.74 30.551Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20
30.88 30.45 31.45 32.12
1Q20 (End 32.83)
4Q19 (End 30.33)
4
Financial Highlight: 2Q20 & 1H20 performance2Q20 Improving MKT GIM was driven by low crude premium
QoQ 30%
YoY 47%
Overview of Business
Net Sales(net excise tax)
Dubai (Avg.)
Unit: $/bbl
Net IncomeUnit: MB
Unit: MB
EBITDA
Unit: MB
QoQ 123%
Net Sales(net excise tax)
Market GIM ($/bbl)
Crude run KBD
Acct. GIM ($/bbl)
Net Stock G/(L)($/bbl)
YoY 206%
YoY 34%
206 188 189 203 188
9.11 6.82 8.46 8.90 7.64
0.83 (12.66) 0.17 1.04 (6.16)
9.94 (5.84) 8.63 9.94 1.48
YoY 35%
2Q20 1H20
Petroleum Petrochemical Utilities and Others
YoY 81%
QoQ 95%
Net Income
Operating NI
YoY – n.a.
YoY 26%QoQ , YoY – n.a.
EBITDA
5
Projects UpdatedFloating Solar Project with Electricity 12.5 MW ABS Expansion: Increasing ABS specialty by 6,000 MTA
Construction ProgressABS Expansion
Project Objective : Increase 6,000 MTA of Specialty
ABS Powder. Recovery Vapor Butadiene
278 MTA from Flare.
CAPEX : ~ 430 MB
IRR : ~ 17%
Project Objective : To produce electricity 12.5 MW Floating Support material by
own HDPE BOI Privilege
Area: Reservoir in Industrial Park
Usage: Internal use at PP Plant
CAPEX : ~ 550 MB
IRR : ~ 17%
Floating Solar Construction Progress
April 2020
COD 5 June 2020
COD
MC
MC
Installing equipment
and Piping work
under progression
3Q20
4Q20Project ProgressAs of July 2020 : 89% of Target
Objectives:
To support the company strategy towards Specialty Product by business segment through Cross-Functional Team from
Marketing, Operation, RD, etc.
Enhancing “ANT” Team to other potential sectors
• Flexibility
• Speed to respond to the needs of current and future market direction
• Effective and achieve the specified objectives
7
Expanding into downstream application:3D Graphene Face Mask
“Dual Layer Graphene Fabric Mask”
Outer layer:
Graphene coated on polyester fabric
Inner layer:
Water repellent cotton 100%
Advanced Materials by
PERFORMANCE
Anti-bacteria
Graphene can reduce bacteria that causes smell
on mask surface.
Anti-static/Anti-dust
Graphene has anti-static property that repels dust
on mask to be clean and safe all day.
Washable
Graphene mask is washable and reusable up to 10 times
certified by the Thailand Textile Institute.
Heat dissipation
Graphene helps dissipate heat evenly across the face
to feel comfortable during mask wearing
Flat screen-printing conductive ink
formulation on fabric roll
Performance testing to
comply the smart fabric regulation
Unique properties including: light-weight, stronger than steel, anti-bacteria, high surface area, high electrical & thermal conductivity
Product Launch in Sep 2020
8
IRPC Joint Venture with Japan Polypropylene Corp. (JPP) Invest in Mytex Polymers (Thailand) Co., Ltd.
50% 50%
To penetrate the Polypropylene (PP) Compound for automotive market in Thailand and Southeast Asia
Mytex Polymers (Thailand)
PP Compound for Automotive
Source: Nexant
Increasing specialty portfolio through JV: MYTEXto penetrate automotive market
99
CSR “The Fight Against COVID-19”
“One Stop Service Clinic”
Designed by IRPC’s Engineer And Signed the MOU with Rayong Hospitals
Modular Diagnosis Room / ARI Clinic Room
1010
CSR “The Fight Against COVID-19”
IRPC & Navamindradhiraj University(NMU) Collaboration to establish the testing services center
Signed MOU between IRPC and NMU on May7, 2020
Collaboration Model
• Technical experience
• Knowledge in polymer
• Business and marketing experience
• Knowledge on medical requirement
• Partial utilization through student usage
Testing Services Center
• Testing Services Center
• Clean room
• To Test & Certify PPE medical products
Objectives:
• Establish a central laboratory providing
• Inspection and certification of medical equipment
• Co-operation of further development for other medical equipment
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AGENDA
CEO Agenda
Operation & Financial Performance
Industry Outlook
2Q20 & 1H20 Highlight
12
Maintaining crude run and market position against COVID- 19 crisis
Maintained Refinery U-Rate during COVID-19 outbreak Production volume while Petrochemical sales volume
Improved MKT GIM as lower crude premium while spread
Recurring OPEX => 7%,QoQ following cost cut measures
Non-Recurring OPEX 325 MB => adj. capex to OPEX
Utilization Rate
MKT GIM Net Stock gain/(Loss)
OPEX
Production Volume & Sales Volume
12.83 $/bbl
2Q19 1Q20 2Q20 1H19 1H20
Refinery
96% 87% 88% 94% 88%
Lube
82% 79% 87% 83% 83%
2Q19 1Q20 2Q20 1H19 1H20
Olefins
99% 95% 91% 94% 93%
Aromatics & Styrenics
99% 94% 95% 91% 95%
Petroleum Petrochemical
2Q19 1Q20 2Q20 1H19 1H20
Production (M.bbl)
15.13 13.55 13.40 29.23 26.95
Sales Volume (M.bbl)
16.63 15.16 14.45 32.60 29.61
Petroleum
2Q19 1Q20 2Q20 1H19 1H20
Production (KMT)
471 450 437 882 886
Sales Volume (KMT)
449 429 450 912 879
Petrochemical
Dubai Price
($/bbl)
(12.66)
0.17
13
Improving performance amid crude discount condition while petroleum market remains under pressure
Financial Performance
< 1.0x
Net IBD/Equity
Net IBD (bn)
Equity (bn)
2Q20 Net IBD/Equity : 0.88 times
Balance Sheet
2Q19 1Q20 2Q20 1H19 1H20
57,702 43,617 30,370 111,976 73,987
2,304 (6,436) 1,505 4,659 (4,932)
507 (8,905) (411) 660 (9,316)
Net Sales
EBITDA
Net Profit
1,004
Net Loss 1Q20
Margin
Net Stock gain
OPEX & Selling Exp.
UnrealizedOil Hedging
Financial Derivatives
FX
Tax & Others
Net Loss 2Q20
Operating Income 38%
Net Income 95%
(8,905) (411)
(1,821) (1,127)
Unit: MB
Unit: MB
Net Profit: 2Q20 VS 1Q20
Net Debt = 63,506 MB
Ex. Rate = 31.07 Baht/$
Interest Rate Currency
Float 82% THB 92%
Fixed 18% USD 8%
14
AGENDA
CEO Agenda
Operation & Financial Performance
Industry Outlook
2Q20 & 1H20 Highlight
15
Crude Oil Outlook
Source: Platts
Global refinery runs recover but remain below 2019 implying low utilization rates
Oil demand continued to recover from 3Q20 onward & Supply is on the rise after bottoming in June.Supply catching up with demand improvements, demand for oil grows faster than production.
Huge drop in demand but now see positive growth sign
16
Singapore Crack Spread on Dubai
Gasoline demand had recovered along with other products after demand to bottom out in 2Q20
Source: Platts
The bottom of the demand
FO
+ Lockdown restrictions are lifted in various parts of the world+ Strong Naphtha demand from Naphtha cracker- The refineries are ramping up runs after turnaround
GAS Oil
17
2H20 Market Outlook
ULG 95
FODriving Determinants : Petrochemical
Crude Oil
ULG 95
ABS
PP
HDPE (Pipe)
PS
KeyProducts
Price (2Q20)
Spread(2Q20)
Refinery ($/bbl) ($/bbl)
Dubai 30.6
ULG 95 33.1 2.6
Gas Oil 36.3 5.7
FO 28.9 -1.6
Polymer ($/T) ($/T)
PP 859 585
HDPE(Pipe)
903 629
PS 923 649
ABS 1,193 919
Driving Determinants : Petroleum
+ Manufacturing in China start consumption amid COVID-19 easing+ higher demand during winter+ International flights resume after lockdown easing- The refineries are ramping up runs after turnaround
+ Higher demand for power generation during summer in Middle East.+ Limited storage capacity as it was turn to LSFO (S 0.5%) tank- Less bunker oil demand due to bearish economic sentiment
+ Improve demand in Asia after COVID-19 Crisis has eased+ Narrow PE Pipe- ethylene spread may force high-cost producers to reduce operating rate- Slow demand during rainy and winter season
+ Improving demand in Asia after lockdown easing + Manufacturing season + Food-packaging and medical demand remain healthy- Surge supply from Malaysian new capacity
+ Weaker feedstock cost and extra demand. (New One Helmet, One Belt policysince 1 June in China)+ Shifting demand in hygiene and appliance due to consumer behavior changes.+ The Automotive producers in Asia have return to the market
+ Recovery demand in the manufacturing industry in Asia after COVID-19 haseased- Soft demand from the alternative plastics
+ OPEC+ supply remains low following the extend cut and greater level ofcompliance+ Improving demand as industrial activities pick up momentum post lockdown- The strong growth of new Covid-19 cases may weaken the recovery in demand- Prices could experience downside pressure as high crude stockpiles
18
AGENDA
CEO Agenda
Operation & Financial Performance
Industry Outlook
2Q20 & 1H20 Highlight
19
IRPC Way Forward
1
2
Costs Competitive
Cash is a King
Shape and Focus
Value Creation
Short-term
Long-term
Survive
Strong Market Position
Opportunistic Investment
Direct Integration
Potential Portfolio
Short-term
Long-term
Resilience
4
3
20
Portfolio shift to high value added product and Seeking opportunity for growth
Seeking opportunity for growth
Commodity Plus42%
Specialty13%
Commodity45%
Commodity Plus42%
Specialty30%
Commodity28%
Target 2024As IS
Automotive
Medical/ Hygiene
Electronic Appliance
Expedite Specialty Product in focusing area
“ANT” Program - cross-function pilot teams
Medical/ Hygiene▪ Increase sales volume and benefit▪ Develop sales plan▪ Study business model (add more scope on
Healthcare & hygiene)
▪ Increase sales volume and benefit▪ Develop sales plan▪ Maintain existing customer▪ Find new customer▪ Study business model
▪ Increase sales volume and benefit▪ Develop sales plan▪ Target market, customer, volume▪ Study business model
Medical
Expand existing PP random grade to
new market & new application
Hygiene
Development of new PP Meltblow resin
- N95 mask
- Protective suit
- Hair/shoe cover
~ 1,000 - 2,000 MB/yr
NOAH: New Organization with Agile Human Further enhance business strategies after digital transformation
The most cost-efficientoperating model at speed
New Organization with Agile Human (NOAH) is the implementation phase to
“Transform Organization Capability-to-Perform”
• Different Work• Different Way• Work differently
• Upskill• Reskill• New skill
• Measure what matter • Competency-based growth• Pay for performance
• BAU Talent• Talent on journey• Near-term catalysts• Tomorrow’s talent
New
Organization
Agile
Human
A
B
C
D
Future Skill Development
New Performance Management and Rewarding
Talent acquisition
Choices of Life Through Package• Aspiring Separation Program (ASP)
• Mutual Separation Program (MSP)
E Benefit: Cost saving
Staff cost(without “NOAH”)
Staff cost(with “NOAH”)
Base line
average~ 1,000 MBY2020
Y2025
This presentation material has been prepared solely for informational purposes only. IRPC is furnishing it solely for use by prospective investors / analysts in the
proposed event. IRPC makes no representations or warranties as to the accuracy or completeness of such information. By accepting this material each recipient
agrees that IRPC shall not have any liability for any representations (express or implied) contained in, or for any omissions from this presentation.
The information contained herein does not purport to be all-inclusive or to contain all of the Information that may be material to the recipient’s decision. Each recipient
of the information and data contained herein should perform its own independent investigation and analysis of the transaction and the creditworthiness of IRPC . Reference in this Disclaimer to this shall include references to the Appendices (if any) hereto.
Investor Relations Contact: [email protected]
Tel. +662-765-7380, Fax. +662-765-7379
Presentation is available at
www.irpc.co.th
Click “Presentations”
Please complete our 2Q20 & 1H20 satisfaction survey via QR CODE
Thank You
Disclaimers
Appendix
2Q19 1Q20 2Q20 1H19 1H20
41,467 30,244 18,782 79,240 49,026 Petroleum
37,005 26,384 16,066 70,341 42,450 Refinery
4,462 3,860 2,716 8,899 6,576 Lube Base
96% 87% 88% 94% 88% % U-Rate
206 188 189 203 188
24
Petroleum Group2Q20: Sharply declined in crude premium supported a rise in GRM1H20 : Weaker products spread during COVID-19 pandemic led to lower Mkt GRM
2.79 5.31 (0.81) 2.45 2.09
Crude Intake
GRMSales Volume & Revenue
Production
Premium over Dubai ($/bbl)
Crude Run (KBD)
YoY 13%
QoQ 5%
YoY 55%
QoQ 38% Revenue
YoY 9%
YoY 38%
Crude intake (Mbbl)
Unit : $/bbl
Unit : Mbbl
Unit : Mbbl
18.78 17.11 17.18
36.75 34.29Sales Volume
Unit : MB
YoY 9%
QoQ 0.4% YoY 7%
YoY 11%
QoQ 1% YoY 8%
96% 87% 88%
82% 79% 87%
114% 93% 79%
94% 88% % Utilization
83% 83% Lube Base
92% 86% RDCC
YoY 5%
QoQ 206% YoY 26%
2Q19 1Q20 2Q20 1H19 1H20
15,349 12,497 10,733 30,979 23,230 Petrochem
9,536 8,090 6,597 19,523 14,687 Olefins
5,813 4,407 4,136 11,456 8,543
25
Petrochemical Group2Q20: Sales vol. increased QoQ especially Aromatics & Styrenics1H20 : Mkt PTF dropped as low products spread according to the COVID-19 outbreak
1H20 : Petrochemical revenue was Bt 23 bn
YoY : 25% decrease from 21% price decrease & 4% volume decrease
1H20 Market PTF was $4.65/bbl:
YoY : $0.78/bbl decrease as lower products spread through the COVID-19 outbreak
Production
PTF
Sales Volume and Revenue
QoQ 5%
QoQ 14% Revenue
YoY - n.a.
YoY 30%
YoY 4%
YoY 25%
Unit : KMT
2Q20 : Petrochemical revenue was Bt 11 bn QoQ : 14% decrease from 19% price decrease VS 5% vol. increase YoY : 30% decrease from 30% price decrease
2Q20 Market PTF was $4.66/bbl:
QoQ : Unchanged due to higher Olefins products spread VS lower Aromatics products spread
YoY : $0.53/bbl decrease as lower products spread
Crude intake (Mbbl)
Unit : $/bbl
Unit : KMTSales Volume
Unit : MB
YoY 7%
QoQ 3% YoY 1%
99% 95% 91%
97% 92% 85%
101% 99% 98%
99% 94% 95%
88% 88% 85%
107% 105% 102%
105% 93% 100%
94% 93% % Utilization
90% 88% Polyolefins
99% 99% Olefins
91% 95% % Utilization
79% 87% Polystyrenics
82% 104% Styrenics
106% 96% Aromatics
QoQ - Unchanged
YoY 10%
YoY 14%
18.78 17.11 17.18
36.75 34.29
Aromaitcs &Styrenics
26
Power & Utility
1H20 U-Rate of Steam was 65%; 4%
YoY : increase after industrial area customers return to normal operations
1H20 U-Rate of Electricity was 70%; 1%
1H20 : Power & Utility revenue was 1,731 MB
YoY : 2% decrease from lower electricity sales vol. to EGAT
Utilization Rate
GIM
Revenue
QoQ 2%
YoY 3%
2Q20 U-Rate of Steam was 63%; 3% QoQ, Unchanged YoY
QoQ : decrease due to planned maintenance shutdown of the industrial area customers
2Q20 U-Rate of Electricity was 70%; 1% QoQ, 4% YoY
YoY : decrease owing to lower u-Rate of refinery
2Q20 : Power & Utility revenue was 855 MB; 2% QoQ, 3% YoY
QoQ & YoY : decrease owing to lower selling price of steam and electricity following lower fuel price
Unit : $/bbl
Unit : MB
YoY 1%
QoQ 7%
YoY 10%
YoY 4%
QoQ 1%
YoY 1%
YoY - Unchanged
QoQ 3%
YoY 4% YoY 2%
27
Market & Accounting Gross Integrated Margin2Q20: Improving A/C GIM resulted from net stock gain 1H20 : Lower Mkt GIM & net stock loss led to a decrease in A/C GIM
Market GIM
Unit: $/bbl
Accounting GIM
Unit: $/bbl
Unit: MB
Market GIM by business
Unit: MB
YoY 7%
QoQ 24% YoY 14%
YoY 13%
YoY 85% QoQ 248%
YoY 14%
QoQ 27% YoY 20%
YoY 20% YoY 86% QoQ 251%
Unit: $/bblPetrochemical
Petroleum
Accounting GIM
2Q20 Acct GIM was $8.63/bbl,
QoQ: $14.47/bbl due to $0.17/bbl net stock gain compared to net stock
loss of $12.66/bbl in 1Q20 and $1.64/bbl higher of market GIM
YoY: $1.31/bbl due to $0.66/bbl lower net stock gain and $0.65/bbl
lower market GIM
1H20 Acct GIM was $1.48/bbl,
YoY: $8.46/bbl due to $6.16/bbl net stock loss compared to net stock
gain of $1.04/bbl in 1H19 and $1.26/bbl lower market GIM
Market GIM
2Q20 Market GIM was $8.46/bbl,
QoQ: $1.64/bbl due to lower crude premium vs lower products spread
YoY: $0.65/bbl due to lower products spread vs lower crude premium
1H20 Market GIM was $7.64/bbl,
YoY: $1.26/bbl due to lower products spread
28
Net Profit: 2Q20 VS 1Q20Better net stock gain improved less net loss
1,004
Net Loss 1Q20
Margin Net Stock gain
OPEX & Selling
Exp.
UnrealizedOil
Hedging
Financial Derivatives
FX Tax & Others
Net Loss 2Q20
Operating Income 38%
Net Income 95%(8,905) (411)
(1,821) (1,127)
Unit: MB
29
Net Profit: 1H20 VS 1H19Net Stock loss, loss on CCS and unrealized Oil hedging resulted in net loss
(2,053)
Net Gain 1H19
Margin Net Stock Loss
OPEX & Selling
Exp.
UnrealizedOil
Hedging
Financial Derivatives
FX Tax & Others
Net Loss 1H20
Operating Income 281%
Net Income – n.a.660 (9,316)
(775) (2,949)
Unit: MB
30
Financial PositionCash flow returned at normal level in response to the COVID-19 easing
Debt ProfileStatements of Financial Position
Cash Flow
Remark: Long-term debt as at 30 June 2020
Unit: MB
PP&E(incl.
investment properties and ROU)
Other Non-CA
Cash
Other CurrentLiabilities
LT Borrowing incl. current port.
Shareholders’Equity
Jun. 2020Dec. 2019
Other CA
Other Non-CurrentLiabilities
Beginning Cash
1 Jan 2020
Ending Cash30 June 2020
Cash Flow from
Operating
Unit: MB
Cash Flow from
Investing
Cash Flow from
Financing
Net Debt = 63,506 MB
Ex. Rate = 31.07 Baht/$
Financial Ratios
177,850 167,484Interest Rate Currency
Float 82% THB 92%
Fixed 18% USD 8%
6%
< 1.0x
Net IBD/Equity CA/CL