14-18 Nov 2005 ESWW – SAAPS 1

SAAPSSpacecraft Anomaly Analysis and Prediction System

ESA Contract 11974/96/NL/JG(SC)Two year project (April 1999 – June 2001)

Peter Wintoft, Lars Eliasson, and Henrik Lundstedt

Swedish Institute of Space Physics

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SDA Objectives• Create database with relevant data:

– Geomagnetic indices (Dst, Kp),– Energetic particles (GOES MeV electron flux),– Solar wind plasma and magnetic field,– Spacecraft anomalies.

• Real-time update of database.• Tools for post-analysis:

– Plotting,– Statistics (Superposed Epoch Analysis, Correlation,…),– User tailored prediction model.

• Tools for forecasting:– Internal charging events at geostationary orbit,– Surface charging events at geostationary orbit.

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User needs

• Spacecraft engineers– Access to as many as possible geomagnetic and space

particle data for mainly post-event analysis.

• Spacecraft operators– Access to key and easy to check relevant geomagnetic

and particle data mainly for forecast but also post-analysis.

• Web based access.• Real-time operation.

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User satisfaction

• SAAPS has been tested by users at ESRANGE and at ESA.• The service was considered as overall good in meeting user

requirements.• The database and post-event analysis facilities were considered as very

appropriate tools for checking rapidly the possible environmental cause of effects.

• The service was found without any other equivalent elsewhere.• Some users complained on problems encountered with firewall

blocking some functionalities using the Java Remote Invocation Methods.

• Current database is not easily maintained.• One user estimated that using SAAPS for post-event analysis can

save a couple of man days of work per analysis compared to existing services (e.g., NOAA-SEC).

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Sustainability of the service

• Software is implemented on a server that

– downloads real-time data and store in database,

– operates a dynamic web service (using Java and RMI).

• Depends on

– reliable internet connection,

– real-time ACE and GOES data.

• Requires approx. 200 man hours per year (~20 k€/y) to ensure continuous operation of server.

• An upgrade of the software <1 man month.

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Improvement of service• At the time of development (1999-2001) an in-

house database was developed. Should be updated using a professional database server.

• Service developed for GEO s/c. LEO s/c should also be included.

• The forecast models operate on daily average data. Could be refined using higher temporal resolution and including local time effects.

• Work in close collaboration with one (or a few) specific s/c operators. Possibly best achieved in private enterprise.