14 09 2005 b Introduction to Disaster Management

Introduction to GIS 11

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International Institute for Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC)

Introduction to Disaster (Risk) Introduction to Disaster (Risk) ManagementManagement

Refresher Course on Geo-Information for Natural Disaster Reduction in Eastern AfricaDepartment of Geography,

Makerere University, 12-23 September 2005

Cees van Westen And

N.M.S.I. Arambepola (ADPC)

Associated Institute of the

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Topics treated :Topics treated :

• Types of hazard• Some statistics• Disaster Risk Management• Components• Sources of information• Exercise

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DisasterDisasterA serious disruption of the functioning of a community or a society causing widespread

human, material, economic or environmental losses which exceed the

ability of the affected community or society to cope using its own resources.

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What are we talking about?What are we talking about?

è a sudden calamitous event bringing great damage, loss or destruction (Merriam Webster dictionary);

è some rapid, instantaneous or profound impact of the natural environment upon the socio-economic system" (Alexander, 1993)

è an event, concentrated in time and space, which threatens a society or a relatively self-sufficient subdivision of a society with major unwanted consequences as a result of precautions which had hitherto been culturally accepted as unwanted (Turner, 1976).

è an extreme event as any manifestation of the earth's system (lithosphere, hydrosphere, biosphere or atmosphere) which differs substantially from the mean (Alexander, 1993).

è an event that results in death or injury to humans, and damage or loss of valuable good, such as buildings, communication systems,

agricultural land, forest, natural environment etc.

A disaster is ….


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What happened in 2004What happened in 2004• 2004 had the highest losses due to catastrophes ever:

• 250000 people killed• US$ 145bn economic losses.

Source: MunichReISL 2004


This map is pre This map is pre -- 20042004

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2005 will again be the largest2005 will again be the largest• Hurricane Katrina• Est.losses 120 billion US $

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Natural disasters ?Natural disasters ?

• Disasters occur when a damaging event impacts the society.

• Disasters therefore are never natural!• However, if a damaging effect impacts

on the natural environment ?


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International Institute for Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC)HAZARDHAZARD

VULNERABILITY VULNERABILITY

VULNERABILITY VULNERABILITY MATERIALIZEDMATERIALIZED

DISASTERDISASTER

HAZARD HAZARD MATERIALIZEDMATERIALIZED

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DisasterDisaster• Disasters can be at different magnitude:

• When does a traffic accident become a disaster

• Disasters can be at different scales• Individual-family-community-municipality…. world

• Disasters can be fast or slow• Is desertification a disaster? Is water pollution a

disaster?

• Disasters can be predictable or unexpected• Recent disasters in Netherlands: firework explosion,

café fire, airplane crash, animal diseases, flooding

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Hazard ClassificationHazard Classification(1)(1)

By By OrginOrgin

Natural Some humaninfluence

Mixed natural/human influence

Some naturalinfluence

Human

EarthquakeTsunamiVolcanic eruptionSnow storm / avalancheGlacial lake outburstLightningWindstorm ThunderstormHailstorm TornadoCyclone/ HurricaneAsteroid impactAurora borealis

FloodDust stormDroughtEl Ni⟩o

LandslidesSubsidence

ErosionDesertification

Coal firesCoastal erosion

Greenhouse effectSealevel rise

Crop diseaseInsect infestation

Forest fireMangrove declineCoral reef decline

Acid rainOzone depletion

Armed conflictLand mines

Major (air-, sea-, land-)traffic accidents

Nuclear / chemicalaccidentsOil spill

Water / soil / air pollutionGroundwater pollution

Electrical powerbreakdownPesticides

Table 1: Classification of disaster in a gradual scale between purely natural and purely human-made.

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HYDRO-METEOROLOGICAL

INTERNAL GEO-DYNAMICPROCESSES

EXTERNAL GEO-DYNAMIC PROCESSES

SEISMIC VOLCANIC

GROUND VIBRATION, SPECTRAL RESPONSE,

ACCELERATION, INTENSITY

GROUND FAILURE, LIQUEFACTION,

LANDSLIDES, TSUNAMI,

CONTINENTAL CRUST SUBSIDENCE-UPLIFT

ERUPTIONS, PIROCLASTIC AND

LAVA FLOWS, TSUNAMI, GAS-VAPOR EMISSIONS, ACID RAIN, GLACIER MELTDOWN,

LAHARS

GLOBAL-REGIONAL-LOCALPROCESSES

CLIMATE VARIABILITY, EL NIÑO, TROPICAL CONVERGENCE,

TROPICAL WAVES, TROUGHS, CYCLONES, POLAR THRUSTS,

OROGRAPHIC AND CONVECTIVE STORMS, TORNADOES

INTENSE RAINFALL DROUGHT WIND

EROSION LANDSLIDES

TORRENTIAL DEBRIS-FLOWS

EXTREMES IN HYDRIC BALANCE: EXCESS-DEFICIT; FLOODS,

INCREASE-DECREASE IN ALBEDO, LAND DEGRADATION

SOIL-NUTRIENT LOSS, SLOPE UNDERMINING, LAND

DEGRADATION, EPHEMEROUS RIVER DAMMING AND BED

AGGRADATION, TORRENTIAL SEDIMENTATION-DEJECTION

Hazard ClassificationHazard Classification(1)(1)

By By OrginOrgin


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Hazard Classification Hazard Classification (2)(2)

Another subdivision is related to the main controlling factors leading to a disaster

Meteorological Geomorphological/Geological

Ecological Technological Globalenvironmental

Extra terrestrial

DroughtDust stormFloodLightningWindstormThunderstormHailstormTornadoCyclone/ Hurricane

EarthquakeTsunamiVolcanic eruptionLandslideSnow avalancheGlacial lake outburstSubsidenceGroundwater pollutionCoal firesCoastal erosion

Crop diseaseInsect infestationForest fireMangrove declineCoral reef decline

Armed conflictLand minesMajor (air-, sea-, land-)traffic accidentsNuclear / chemical accidentsOil spillWater / soil / air pollutionElectrical power breakdownPesticides

Acid rainAtmosphericpollutionGreenhouse effectSealevel riseEl Ni⟩oOzone depletion

Asteroid impactAurora borealis

Table 2: Classification of disaster related to the main controlling factors leading to a disaster.

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Hazard Classification Hazard Classification (3)(3)

Another useful distinction that can be made between disaster is

regarding their duration of impact and the time of forewarning.

Disaster type Duration of impact Length of forewarning Frequency or type of occurrenceLightningSnow avalancheEarthquakeTornadoLandslideIntense rainstormHailstormTsunamiFloodSubsidenceVolcanic eruptionCyclone/ HurricaneForest fireCoastal erosionDroughtCrop diseaseDesertification

InstantSeconds-minutesSecond-minutesSecond-hoursSecond-decadesMinutesMinutesMinutes-hoursMinutes-daysMinutes-decadesMinutes-yearsHoursHours-DaysHours-decadesDays-monthsWeeks-monthsYears-Decades

Seconds – hoursSeconds-minutesseconds-yearsSeconds- hoursSeconds-hoursMinutes – hoursMinutes – daysSecond – yearsMinutes –weeksHours – daysSeconds –daysHoursDays – weeksDays – monthsMonths – years

RandomSeasonal/diurnal ; randomLog-normalSeasonal; negative binomialSeasonal; irregularSeasonal/diurnal; PoissonSeasonal/diurnal; Poisson , gammaRandomSeasonal; Markovian, gamma, log-normalSudden or progressiveIrregularSeasonal / irregularSeasonal / randomSeasonal / irregular ; exponential , gammaSeasonal / irregular ; binomial , gammaSeasonal /irregularProgressive (threshold may be crossed)

Table 3: Classification of disasters by duration of impact, length of forewarning, and frequency or type of occurrence(Alexander, 1993)

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Disaster statisticsDisaster statistics

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Disaster statisticsDisaster statistics


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• MunichRe 2005

Disasters 2004Disasters 2004

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2004: most costly year2004: most costly year

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Disasters per continentDisasters per continent

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Increasing vulnerabilityIncreasing vulnerability• ongoing trends

Ø Population growthØ climate variability and climate changeØ Migration of population to citiesØ Higher vulnerability of industrialized societiesØ increased environmental degradationØ Densely populated communitiesØ More people living on marginal landsØ Greater unplanned settlements due to land scarcityØ High risk due to natural and manmade hazards


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Results due to high exposure of InfrastructureResults due to high exposure of Infrastructure

• Increased vulnerability to Primary hazards such as earthquakes, floods, cyclones etc.

• Potential high impact due to secondary hazards like urban fire, technological and other accidents etc

• High environmental problems and inconvenience to urban populations

• More control measures to save facilities,innovative design options are needed

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Climate for investment in infrastructure and other Climate for investment in infrastructure and other types of development is not encouraging in most types of development is not encouraging in most

developing countriesdeveloping countries• In most cities problems connected to governance has become

normal.In most cases power sharing is seen with central government.Most areas in city are controlled by central government.

• Infrastructure facilities are shared by many LGs and CG• Mitigation initiatives are not acceptable to all.• Urbanization accompanied by significant increase in the scale of

poverty of urban population has put pressure on city administration.They can not get revenue from poor but services have to be provided

• Urban poverty disproportionately affects weaker layers and fuels tensions (such as ethnic and racial tensions),gender sensitivity,less attention to disable groups etc

• Growth of disparities between affluent and disposed will create different units such as divided cities within a city

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Disaster risk management• Disaster management can be defined as the

effective organization, direction and utilization of available counter-disaster resources

• The modern view is that there must be pre-disaster mitigation measures to avoid or reduce impact of disasters. Pre-disaster measures to prevent or mitigate disasters are called Risk Management


Disaster Risk ManagementThe process, by which assessed risks are mitigated, minimized or controlled through engineering, management of land use practices or other operational means. This involves the optimal allocation of available resources in support of group goals.

The systematic management of administrative decisions, organisation, operational skills and abilities to implement policies, strategies and coping capacities of the society or individuals to lessen the impacts of natural and related environmental and technological hazards.


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What is Management?

• Management consists of decision-making activities undertaken by one or more individuals to direct and coordinate the activities of other people in order to achieve results, which could not be accomplished by any one person acting alone.

• Management is required when two or more persons combine their efforts and resources to accomplish a goal, which neither can accomplish alone.

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Disaster management cycle• disaster prevention• disaster preparedness • disaster relief• Rehabilitation• Reconstruction

Traditional approach. Is it really a cycle?


Expand-contract model•In this model, disaster management is seen as a continuous process. •There is a series of activities that run parallel to each other rather than as a sequence

P re ven tio n an d m iti ga ti o n st rand

P repa redne sss tr a nd R elie f a nd

R es pon ses tr a nd

R ec ove ry andR eh abilit a ti on stra nd

Fig u re 2E xp a nd – Con trac t Mod e l

Ti m e

CR IS IS


The Disaster Crunch ModelIt is a framework for understanding and explaining the causes of disaster and adopts a cause-effect perspective. It is a pressure model. Vulnerability (pressure) is seen as rooted in socio-economic and political processes.

These have to be addressed (released) for disaster risk reduction.

The model reveals a progression of vulnerability. It begins with underlying causes in society that prevents satisfying demands of the people.

Fig u re 3Th e Cr un ch Mod el

DISA STE R

Und erly ing Cause s

Dyn am ic Pr ess ures

Uns afe C ondi tion s

Hazar d eve ntVu lner ab ility

Prog ress ion o f V uln era bi lity o f a co mmu n ity


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The Disaster Crunch Model• Population expansion leads to inadequate housing and land needs. Prices of

urban land increase. Low -income people may not be able to afford it. • Rural – urban migration adds more pressure. There is thus expansion of urban

areas outwards. The result is ad-hoc urban sprawling• The low-income people may occupy land with low demand that may be

disaster-prone. They may not have the income to adhere to safe practices and building codes. They may not have proper sanitary conditions, water supply and other utilities. The local governments may come under pressure to provide them but would be unable to do so.

• But these are dynamic communities that grow and change adding more and more pressure on limited resources. They may show low literacy rates, lack of awareness of disaster potential or preparedness, lack of proper health care which decrease strength to withstand disaster impact, malnutrition, lack of training for livelihoods, disaster prone housing etc.

• These are unsafe conditions which increase the vulnerability of these communities. They would have no capacity to face a hazard event.

• When a hazard event happens these communities would bear the brunt of impact and their losses would be greater. Their capacity to recover is minimal

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Aggravating Factors Of VulnerabilityAggravating Factors Of Vulnerability

Inadequate Inadequate capacity for risk capacity for risk

managementmanagement

Inadequate Inadequate development development

model model Underestimation Underestimation

of hazardsof hazards

Population Population incapable of incapable of assessing its assessing its

vulnerability and vulnerability and confronting confronting emergenciesemergencies

Obsolete risk Obsolete risk managementmanagement

legislationlegislation

Decision makers Decision makers lack awareness lack awareness and willingnessand willingness

Inadequate Inadequate territorial territorial

managementmanagement

Inadequate Inadequate management of management of

natural resourcesnatural resources

Weak risk Weak risk management management institutionsinstitutions

Obsolete Obsolete construction construction

codescodes

More vulnerable More vulnerable constructions and constructions and

productive activitiesproductive activitiesPopulation and Population and

productive productive activities overactivities over--

exposed to exposed to hazardshazards

Random urban Random urban growthgrowth

Natural resources Natural resources and environmental and environmental rapid deteriorationrapid deterioration

Reactive and centralist Reactive and centralist disaster attention disaster attention

paradigms still prevailparadigms still prevail

•Mora and Keipi (2005)

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Fig ure 4The Re lea se Mod e l

A dd ressUnd erly ing Cause s

Red uction s inDyn am ic Pr ess ures

Safer C ondi tion s

C om m uni tyPre pare dn ess

RISKREDU CT ION

H azar dMitiga tion

Hazar dPreve nt ion

Th e Pr og ress of Safety as a r everse o f the

Prog ress ion of Vul nera b ili ty

The Disaster Crunch Model

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Technocratic view of risk management

• Problem-• Physical vulnerability

• Symptoms as perceived-• High death toll and damages of infrastructure attributed to severity of

hazard,extensive and recurrent rehabilitation needs• The causes:

• Uncontrolled characteristics of hazard events, Physiography of the prone area,Lack of inadequacy of protective infrastructure,Failure of forecasting and warnings

• Solutions:• Improve the protection capacity of infrastructure• Improve technology,design the structures to resist • Eradicate bad habits,ignorance through awareness creation and capacity

building of professionals• Improve forecasting,warning, response mechanisms,preparedness

measures • Formulate action plans,enact appropriate legislation,land use

control,building standards,risk mapping


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Development view for risk management• Problem

• Physical vulnerability is a symptom of its economic vulnerability• Symptoms as perceived

• High death toll and damages to infrastructure attributed to severity of hazard,extensive and recurrent rehabilitation needs

• Causes• Land use policies that have encourage rapid population growth,Land

distribution and resource allocation policies,,insufficient employment opportunities,deterioration of social insurance within the society

• Solutions:• Change the emphasis on structural mitigation programs aimed at physical

protection and the over reliance on technology solutions.• Initiate action to reduce the exposure of population to hazard events

through advance planning of land use • Building up more resources of the most vulnerable sections of community.• Create credit facilities,opportunities to borrow money,create capital

investments opportunities• Promote more initiatives for risk transfer

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Key elements of Disaster ManagementKey elements of Disaster ManagementPre-disaster phases Post-disaster phases

Risk Identification

Mitigation Risk Transfer Preparedness Emergency response

Rehabilitation and Reconstruction

Hazard Assessment

Physical/structural mitigation works

Insurance/ reinsurance

Early warning systems. Communication systems

Humanitarian assistance / rescue

Rehabilitation/reconstruction of damaged critical infrastructure

Vulnerability assessment

Land-use planning and building codes

Financial market instruments

Monitoring and forecasting

Clean-up, temporary repairs and restoration of services

Macroeconomic and budget management

Risk Assessment

Economic incentives

Privatization of public services with safety regulations

Shelter facilities Emergency planning

Damage assessment

Revitalization of affected sectors (exports,tourism)

GIS mapping and scenario building

Education, training and awareness

Calamity funds Contingency planning (utility companies / public services)

Mobilization of recovery resources

Incorporation of disaster mitigation components in reconstruction

•Sources: Worldbank, DMF & USAID

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RiskRisk

• Risk is the likelihood or probability of a hazard event of a certain magnitude occurring. Risks are measures of the threat of hazards.

-ADPC

• Risk is the actual exposure of something of human value to a hazard. Often regarded as the product of probability and loss..

-ADPC

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RiskRisk

• Risk is the exposure or the chance of loss due to a particular hazard for a given area and reference period. It may be expressed mathematically as the probability that a hazard impact will occur multiplied by the consequences of that impact.

-ADPC

• Note: Definitions of risk in the hazards literature vary from those that equate risk with probability to those that see risk as the product of a probability and a particular kind of impact occurring


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Risk Management ProcessRisk Management Process– Risk management has three components.

- Risk identification- Risk reduction- Risk transfer

– Risk identification has to be done through mapping and using other available technological options.

– It is usual to allocate risk management to a special body at national level. Usually it is a National Disaster Management Organization (NDMO) at national level.Others support should be obtained within a National Action Plan for DM

– At local level it may be the responsibility of a Disaster Mitigation Committee, which administers risk management. This varies in different countries depending on administrative patterns and needs.

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Risk reductionRisk reduction• Effective risk reduction involves mitigation

measures in hazard prone areas.• It may also involve overcoming the

socioeconomic, institutional and political barriers to the adoption of effective risk reduction strategies and measures in developing countries.

• The systematic development and application of policies, strategies and practices to minimise vulnerabilities, hazards and the unfolding of disaster impacts throughout a society, in the broad context of sustainable development.

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Risk TransferRisk Transfer

Effective risk transfer involves different tools such as insurance,tax policies,special measures focused on land management.

Organizational structure,policies,legislation etc. is required for effective implementation of risk transfer strategies for a country or local government area.

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Hazard, Vulnerability and elements at riskHazard, Vulnerability and elements at risk

• Natural hazard (H): the probability of occurrence of a potentially damaging phenomenon within a specified period of time and within a given area.

• Vulnerability (V): the degree of loss to a given element or set of elements at risk (see below) resulting from the occurrence of a natural phenomenon of a given magnitude. It is expressed on a scale from 0 (no damage) to 1 (total loss).

• Elements at risk (E): the population, properties, economic activities, including public services, etc. at risk in a given area.


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Hazard, vulnerability and risk?Hazard, vulnerability and risk?

RISK = HAZARD * VULNERABILITY * AMOUNT

Hazard= PROBABILITY of event with a certain magnitude

Vulnerability = Degree of damage. Function of:• magnitude of event, and • type of elements at risk

Amount = Quantification of the elements at risk e.g.• Replacement costs of buildings, infrastructure etc.• Loss of function or economic activities• Number of people

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Risk assessment Risk assessment

• Source: OAS , Steve Bender (2003)

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Tangible versus intangible lossesTangible versus intangible losses

Losses as consequence of a natural hazard can either be:

tangible when a monetary value can be assigned or intangible when no monetary value can be assigned.

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TYPOLOGY OF LOSSESTYPOLOGY OF LOSSES

MEASUREMENT

TANGIBLE INTANGIBLE

INDIRECT ? ? FORM OF LOSS

DIRECT ? ?


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Effects:Effects:

• Physical • Environmental• Economical• Social• Cultural• Political

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Direct lossesDirect losses

• Result from the physical interaction of the natural phenomenon with the damageable property.

• The magnitude of the damage may be taken as the cost of restoration of property to its conditions before the event, or its loss in market value if restoration is not worthwhile.

• Direct damages are a function of many variables !

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Examples of Direct EffectsExamples of Direct Effects

• Direct physical damage:• Houses destroyed• Houses damaged (to certain degrees)• Damage to content of buildings (destroyed)• Other buildings damaged (commercial, institutional etc.)• Critical facilities destroyed (hospitals etc)• Critical facilities damaged (functionality..)• Lifelines disrupted (water, gas, electricity, telecommunications)• Transportation systems disrupted.

• Direct social damage:• Death to human beings;• Injury of human beings (in certain degrees)• Psychological effects (shock, panic)

• Direct economical damage:• Offices / factories out of function / partially functioning• Loss of goods / stocks / livelyhood

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Indirect lossesIndirect losses

• Are caused by disruption of physical and economic linkages of the economy.

• Examples include interruption of traffic flow, loss of industrial production, loss of personal income and business profit.


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Examples of Indirect EffectsExamples of Indirect EffectsShort termShort term

• Indirect economical damage:• Factories / shops / offices out of business or partly functioning• Loss of services (gas , water, electricity, telecommunications) for different periods

in different areas• Costs for repair of lifelines and transportation systems • Costs for temporary housing, relocation of people, Repair of damage of buildings• Replacement of contents (e.g. Furniture , computers etc) • Costs for clean-up, demolition. Costs for planning reconstruction.• Compensation payments by government & insurance companies

• Indirect social damage:• Hospitalization, More disabled persons• Homelessness• Disruption of communities (other neighbours, schools, etc.)• Disruption of social and governmental functions. • Psychological effects (grief, apathy, anger)• Social disorder (riots, insecurity, looting, abuse of help)

• Indirect environmental damage

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Examples of Indirect EffectsExamples of Indirect EffectsLong termLong term

• Long term economical damage:• Costs for reconstruction of buildings and infrastructure• Increase in unemployment• Decrease in production, export, tourism, economic growth• Diversion of investments

• Long term social effects• Politcal instability• Increase of poverty• Increase of social insecurity (violence, crime rate, etc)

• Also long term positive effects are possible:• Increasing economic activities in certain sectors (construction industry)• Opportunities to adopt new technology• Revitalisation of economy• Improved disaster prevention and preparedness

Depends on initial economic, political, cultural and religious factors of A society.

14 09 2005 b Introduction to Disaster Management

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