13367_Housing_Market_Report_Q1_2016_14a

Real Estatefor a changing world

UK HOUSING MARKET PROSPECTS SPRING 2016

R E S E A R C H

This page: Waverley New Community, Sheffield – Harworth EstatesFront cover: Elephant Park, London (Image credit: Lendlease)

Publication theme: Regeneration

UK HOUSING MARKET PROSPECTS

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• The average UK house price rose by 4.25% in 2015, driven by a broad based recovery across the UK, with higher numbers of both home mover and first time buyer transactions.

• The buoyancy seen during 2015 will persist into 2016 to deliver average price growth of 4.7%. However, there are downside risks in the form of the changing tax regime for buy to let investments and challenging economic conditions in some parts of the country. The regional economic implications of falling global demand in the manufacturing and oil sectors will take its toll on house price growth in those exposed regions.

• In part reflecting a struggling prime housing market in London, we expect house prices across the capital to rise 3.7% in 2016, less than a third of that achieved in 2015. London is a complex market with many micromarkets, some of which will outperform and some underperform. The wider South East and South West will benefit from their bias towards the buoyant service sector and a degree of housing market catch-up.

• The impact of government intervention to support aspiring homeowners in the form of Help to Buy and now Starter Homes should not be underestimated. Whilst the impact of Starter Homes is yet to emerge, applications for the latest round of Help to Buy made in just the first two weeks of February would represent 10% of new homes output for 2014/15, a real boost to demand.

• The market is also experiencing the distorting impact of the rapid-fire assault on the Buy to Let (BTL) sector, with a current rush to buy in some areas to avoid the 3% surcharge.

• Developers have been tackling rapid build cost increases, and whilst materials prices should start to level off, there needs to be a push to expand skilled trades capacity if the Government is serious about expanding housebuilding.

• THE HEADLINES

CONTACTS

Simon Durkin Head of Research [email protected] 020 7338 4020

Adrian Owen Head of Residential [email protected] 020 7338 4064

Sam Blake London & Business Line Research Lead [email protected] 020 7338 4130

Tim Cann Central Southern, South Coast & South West [email protected] 011 7984 8405

Steven Cooper Central London [email protected] 020 7338 4045

David Couch North and Midlands [email protected] 011 4263 9221

Julian Gaynor South East of England [email protected] 020 7338 4162

Nadir Khan-Juhoor Scotland [email protected] 013 1260 1118

Anthony Lee Affordable Housing [email protected] 020 7338 4061

Neil Mansfield New Homes [email protected] 020 7338 4325

Ricky Poonia Capital Markets & Investments [email protected] 020 7338 4894

Howard Williams South East and Public Sector [email protected] 020 7338 4063

RESEARCH

RESIDENTIAL REGIONAL CONTACTS

BedZED, Sutton

We have started 2016 with the reminder of the spectre of global economic and political challenges we currently face. The inevitable slowdown in the run of economic growth in China and other emerging economies has been most acutely seen in oil prices and stock markets, but the implication pervades global demand. The US has seen slightly slower growth than expected, while the Eurozone remains well below average, although this year is likely to see the highest level of expansion for Europe since the 2008 financial crisis.

Figure 1: Economic Forecasts

• ECONOMIC BACKDROP

Source: ONS (historic); BNP Paribas Real Estate (forecast)

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

GDP GROWTH (% PA) 2.2 1.7 2.0 2.0 2.2

INFLATION CPI (% PA) 0.0 0.4 2.0 2.0 2.0

UNEMPLOYMENT, CLAIMANT COUNT (000s) 795.4 773.7 742.3 713.7 0.71

Despite the headwinds, demand conditions in our domestic economy have proved robust, particularly with respect to housing and personal consumption. The sharp increase in real incomes in 2015, combined with continued growth in the employment market, has contributed to improved consumer confidence. This has persisted into the New Year despite extreme volatility on the financial markets. Significantly, we have also seen business investment growth reaching its highest level as a share of GDP since 2000.

The challenge is to balance the positive domestic headwinds against a global slowdown. The Bank of England is taking a cautious stance, with the Governor of the Bank of England this month setting out the Bank’s expectation that inflation will remain low due to falls in world commodity prices. The Bank reiterated concern over raising rates too quickly, but accepting that inflation will potentially edge beyond target for a period in the next two years, before stabilising.

This low inflation and interest rate backdrop will leave the UK relatively well placed to ride out what is likely to be a difficult couple of years on the global stage. The economic dynamics are particularly favourable to housing. However, the concern as noted in our previous report, is that the housing market may gather more momentum than is either healthy or sustainable, while headline inflation is allowed time to return to the target.

The US has already started to raise interest rates and pressure will gather for the UK to follow suit as this year unfolds. While credit growth is weak, this is largely due to bank regulation, whereas there are signs that non-bank credit is expanding with the potential for inflationary pressure. That said, there are unknowns on the horizon, which may temper households’ propensity to makes significant financial decisions, notably investment in housing. The UK’s electorate decision on membership of the EU will be the first test. In a world of geopolitical uncertainty others will inevitably follow.

Source: GfK Consumer Confidence Index

One The Elephant (Image credit: Lendlease)

Figure 2: Consumer Confidence (net balance)

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Average annualised UK price growth

Total average UK price growth

by the end of 2019 between 2016-1920.1% 5.0%

We have seen central bank rates turn negative in other countries, most recently Japan, adding to Sweden, Denmark and Switzerland. This situation is historically unprecedented – would you pay someone to lend them money? It has fed into some high street banks offering negative interest rates in Germany, therefore it is conceivable that it could do so here, which does not bode well for savers and investors seeking a yield on their assets. If there is an unexpected downturn and this phenomenon spreads further, there could be a further flood of institutional and foreign investors into UK property seeking any yield, at least in the short term, until interest rates and monetary policy returns to a more sensible norm.

This aside, there are reasons to be optimistic longer term. World economic growth is currently running at approximately 3%. At well below the heady rates of the 2000s, this pace of growth has the potential to sustain weak raw material prices for the coming decade at least. This should allow a long upswing to take a grip on the world economy. There will be a process of discovery in the post-crisis economy to identify those sectors that can flourish in the new slower-growing world. Some UK regions are well positioned for the future, while others will see current challenges persist in the absence of structural intervention. With the UK’s comparative advantage in services, this bodes well for the South East and London, as well as cities such as Birmingham and Manchester where services are expanding rapidly.

• HOUSING MARKET CONTEXT The average UK house price rose by 4.25% in 2015, slightly down on our forecast. There was more of a London and South East bias in the pace of growth than we forecast, driven by the dynamism of the service economy. Overall, however, the recent trends in the housing market have been broadly in line with our expectations, showing a continued and broad based recovery across the UK.

This is reflected in market activity data, with the seasonally adjusted estimate of the number of residential property transactions in December standing 11.6% higher compared with 12 months earlier (ONS). This is consistent with trends in the mortgage market, with value of lending for home purchase in November standing 18% up on that recorded in November 2014. Notably, lending to first time buyers (FTBs) was 10% ahead, suggesting a more broadly based upturn in buying activity (CML).

The RICS UK Residential Market Survey suggests the upturn in market activity will continue in the near term. The ongoing demand-supply imbalance persists, with buyer enquiries outpacing new instructions for the eleventh consecutive month. However, these patterns mask other factors in play, which are likely to contain market activity, if not prices.

The restructuring of the UK residential Stamp Duty regime in November 2014 has undoubtedly added greater vibrancy to activity at the lower end of the housing market. However, the upper end of the market, which has seen a sharp increase in the Duty payable, remains stymied. This is inevitably truncating housing chains in some locations. Furthermore, a period of growth in the new homes market, has given way to a weakening in construction activity, with housing starts and completions standing approximately a quarter down on pre-crisis levels. This reflects understandable caution on the part of housebuilders as we enter yet another a period of

Nine Elms, Vauxhall, London

economic uncertainty. However, shortages of skilled construction workers and some materials are, at least in part, a contributor to the mute level of activity. Whilst material prices should start to level off or fall as the recent price drops for inputs such as oil and steel feed through, the outlook for skilled trades is less favourable to increased supply. There needs to be a big push in terms of expanding apprentice schemes and importing more labour in the near full employment environment if the government is serious about increasing house building.

While both home movers and FTBs have contributed to the upturn in transactions over the last six months, the market is also experiencing the distorting impact of the rapid-fire assault on the Buy to Let (BTL) sector. As landlords adjusted to the pricing and performance impacts of the forthcoming reduced tax allowances on mortgage interest payments, the Chancellor announced an additional 3% on Stamp Duty for BTL purchases, from the 2016/17 tax year. As purchases are brought forward ahead of the April increase, we expect to see a buoyant first quarter of activity followed by a slowdown in activity. The CML expect BTL volumes to fall during 2016 and 2017, returning to levels seen in 2014.

Indications of pent up demand in the market, underlined by the RICS survey, suggest that movers and FTBs, buoyed by an expanding Help to Buy support from the Government, will take up some of the BTL slack. This will support demand at lower price points, mitigating headwinds from the stamp duty on second homes. A reported 15,000 applications received for Help to Buy since 1 February is an extraordinary number, and would reflect 10% of the total new build output in 2014-15 – a real boost to demand.

The expectation of rising real incomes, combined with low mortgage rates for some time to come will also serve to boost homebuyer confidence. However, some locations and developments will struggle where they fail to appeal to homeowners as well as investors.

• MARKET OUTLOOK The outlook for the housing market over the coming year will be influenced by a blend of economic, monetary and fiscal factors. The underlying economic environment suggests a slow but steady improvement in market activity. We forecast this will deliver house price growth of 4.7% in 2016 to produce an average house price of £206,314, an increase of just over £9,000 this year. The change to the tax calculations for BTL investors is likely to result in a front-loading of this growth during the year. This will be particularly pronounced in certain markets that appeal particularly to BTL like Manchester City Centre. In these markets a rush to buy could be a false economy as there may be potential to negotiate away the impact of the 3% rise once it comes into effect.

There is greater uncertainty over the medium term outlook. As we discussed in our scenario analysis last quarter, the deferment of a UK base rate rise in response to a slowdown in global growth, will act as a stimulant to housing demand, particularly when combined with support for FTBs in the form of Help to Buy. An assessment on the extent to which the BTL measures will temper upside risk will become clearer by the year end. On balance, however, we expect an average price increase of 5.0% per annum over the period 2016-2019 for the UK as a whole. This is slightly down on our previous medium term forecast; a reflection of both economic and fiscal policy factors.

Across the country this slight downgrade is more acutely seen in the regions that were already seeing the lowest levels of forecast growth. The North, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland will experience compound growth of less than 15% over the forecast period (not far off half the level in the case of some regions). This clearly reflects the economic challenges facing these regions, with a relatively high exposure to manufacturing and the oil & petrochemical sectors, during a time of weak global demand.

The International Quarter, Stratford, London

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Liverpool Waters scheme, Liverpool

Figure 3: UK Average Real House Prices and Forecast, 1977=100

Regions with a greater economic contribution from the relatively well-performing service sector will see the stronger price growth, particularly where there is still a degree of catch-up following the financial crisis. We expect the South West and South East will outperform for these reasons over the medium term. In contrast London, where average prices are around 50% ahead of their pre-financial crisis peak will, on average, see relatively weak below trend growth over the next four years.

Figure 4: Nominal Regional House Price Forecasts, 2016-2019

Source: Nationwide (historic); BNP Paribas Real Estate (forecast)

Source: Nationwide (historic); BNP Paribas Real Estate (forecast)

ACTUAL FORECAST2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

UK 4.25% 4.70% 4.83% 4.56% 4.67%

NORTH EAST 2.21% 2.36% 2.02% 1.74% 1.77%

YORKSHIRE & HUMBERSIDE 0.40% 3.83% 3.92% 3.60% 3.64%

NORTH WEST 0.60% 4.38% 4.17% 4.03% 4.16%

EAST MIDLANDS 3.63% 5.34% 5.48% 5.27% 5.40%

WEST MIDLANDS 1.57% 5.73% 5.57% 5.50% 5.60%

EAST ANGLIA 2.21% 4.13% 4.46% 4.21% 4.34%

REST OF SOUTH EAST 9.06% 6.16% 6.48% 6.18% 6.31%

LONDON 12.17% 3.65% 3.98% 3.71% 3.87%

SOUTH WEST 3.82% 7.29% 7.60% 7.29% 7.40%

WALES 0.70% 3.38% 3.42% 3.16% 3.25%

SCOTLAND -1.91% 3.30% 2.86% 2.39% 2.37%

NORTHERN IRELAND 6.46% 2.69% 2.53% 2.01% 2.03%

NorthernIreland

Scotland

NorthEast

North West

Yorkshire &Humberside

East Midlands

West Midlands

Wales

South West

Outer South East

East Anglia

London

33.0% 27.6%

18.3%

16.1%13.9%

24.4%23.3%

8.1% 17.8%

15.9%

11.4%

9.6%

5-14%

15-24%

25-34%

• HOUSE PRICE GROWTH, 2016-2019 LONDON

• London remains resilient but is a tale of two cities with several micro climates within it

• Some prime markets continue to slow due to stamp duty increases, ambitious pricing, over supply and weakening demand due to international macro-economic headwinds

• Other prime markets, for example, Midtown, are still performing, with well designed, located and priced units selling in accordance with expectations, helped by the recent weakening of the pound

• There is still a strong appetite for many secondary and tertiary locations where new build supply is thin and developers chase the sub £1,000 psf market where competition is fierce with many more PRS entrants into this market sector

• Developers are re-focusing on UK investor and end user buyers as Asian off plan markets dry up with uncertainty in the Asian stock markets

• The upcoming stamp duty increase of 3% for non-primary residential properties has yet to be factored into pricing and is also having an impact

• Overall, the market is counter balanced by the continued Government incentives to stimulate supply and attract buyers at the lower end of the market through Help to Buy as well as unprecedentedly cheap finance

SOUTH WEST

• The appetite from national house builders, developers, funds and investors for additional strategic land continues throughout the South and South West

• The extension of the Help to Buy initiative has continued to assist volume house builders improve sales rates in particular in areas with relatively low incomes and a new build supply

• Build costs continue to be a challenge for house builders to manage, with most having seen increases in recent months and the feedback is that this is now predominantly driven by a shortage of skilled labour

• Some areas in the deeper south west are still paying “catch up” as they have not seen the growth yet

SOUTH EAST

• The land market in the South East, although buoyant, has thinned as the impact of the past 10 years of house builder mergers/acquisitions and increased land availability continues to be felt

• Family housing in popular commuter locations continues to drive the new homes market in the South East

• South Kent, for a long time ignored by the national house builders, is seeing some of the strongest growth in the South East. Although the high speed train link has been in place since 2009 it is has taken time for towns like Folkestone, Ramsgate, and Dover to attract the attention of the national house builders

• The national house builders, although active, continue to be risk adverse with some only acquiring on a subject to planning or option basis



NorthernIreland

Scotland

NorthEast

North West

Yorkshire &Humberside

East Midlands

West Midlands

Wales

South West

Outer South East

East Anglia

London

33.0% 27.6%

18.3%

16.1%13.9%

24.4%23.3%

8.1% 17.8%

15.9%

11.4%

9.6%

5-14%

15-24%

25-34%

MIDLANDS

• Midlands house builders are generally at capacity, reflected in stronger appetite for mid to long term sites and promotion/option agreements, with very keen demand for sites of 70-100 units

• Viability remains a significant issue as build cost increases have matched sales value rises

• Enquiries for apartment sites in Birmingham and Coventry are at their highest level for the last three years

• There is strong demand for PRS opportunities and student accommodation schemes

• The HS2 announcement and other major investments are contributing to rising sales values within Birmingham city centre, with values edging over £350 psf

NORTH

• Core northern cities are seeing renewed demand for apartment living and the development market is now responding, led by Manchester, but with other cities such as Leeds, Newcastle and Sheffield also seeing activity (often led by the student market)

• PRS is the subject of strong interest and market rumour. Viability issues are restricting starts but we expect this to change for the better in 2016

• There will be a differentiation between the more innovative PRS Communities and the traditional build to let/off plan investment market. Areas with underlying values close to £300 psf will see the most PRS activity, and Leeds is starting to compete with Manchester for investment

• The mainstream new homes market is strong with good rates of sale and solid price growth in good locations

• There are more and more areas achieving above £200 psf and this is stimulating the house builders to be more ambitious in their acquisition targets

• Government initiatives continue to underpin the market in many locations and there is the hope that Starter Homes will provide a further boost to site acquisition and sales rates in what have been the more challenging locations

SCOTLAND

• House builders continue to have a strong appetite for short to medium term sites as well as entering into option agreements for longer term opportunities

• There is strong demand in particular for sites of 50+ units

• Increasing build costs are concerning house builders and have a potential impact on profit for sites acquired recently

• City centre development sites are receiving interest from the national house builders as opposed to historically the more niche builders only

• There is strong demand for PRS opportunities and student accommodation schemes

• Prices in Edinburgh City centre are edging over £400 psf, their 2007 high

Source: BNP Paribas Real Estate

• EXPECTATIONS FOR LONDON Prices in London rose an average of 12.3% in 2015. As a result, the average value of a home increased by nearly £50,000, which is 40% more than the average take home pay in the capital. Even with rising real incomes, this calculation represents an insurmountable challenge for many would be home buyers in London. The Nationwide FTB Affordability Index for London, which measures mortgage payments relative to the average take home pay, currently stands at its highest level since Q1 2008, when house prices had just started their downward descent.

The prime market continues to struggle under the weight of the increased Stamp Duty obligations at the upper end and wider changes to the tax regime for overseas residents and investors. The super prime submarkets, where overseas buyers are such important players in the market have particularly suffered. These markets were already considered fully priced and are now showing price falls. However, the London market is complex with many submarkets and well-designed units in areas of oversupply (e.g. midtown) are still performing well. Letting activity in central markets is strengthening as some buyers prefer to spend on rent over several years what they would have otherwise spent on stamp duty alone to buy a £2m+ home.

However, the prime central markets only make up a relatively small part of the wider picture and overall we expect house prices in London to end the year 3.7% up on their current level. This represents growth of less than a third of that achieved in 2015. However, this slowdown was on the cards well before the BTL measures were put in place: 12% house price growth is neither sustainable nor desirable. We expect house prices in London to average £472,865 (Nationwide measure) by the end of the year and well over half a million pounds before the close of the decade.

We have already seen a dissolution of overseas and investor activity in the capital. With investment capital, particularly from the Far East, less readily available, new homes sales will become more challenging. This is positive news for FTBs in London who can probably expect a warmer welcome at the sales offices of new homes developments over the next few years. With housing emerging as a central issue in the upcoming Mayoral election we expect increased focus on the issue of affordability in both the sales and rental markets in the capital. This is an issue to which we will return in the coming months when we publish an in depth report on this subject. For now we provide a comment on the new Starter Homes initiative, which will emerge as an influence to the market over coming years.

• STARTER HOMES The initial enthusiasm among developers for starter homes – rooted in an understanding that they would replace ‘traditional’ affordable products – has begun to wane as they weigh up the implications. Local planning authorities, many of whom were resistant from the outset, have become more concerned about their ability to secure housing that will meet priority housing needs.

Darbishire Place, Whitechapel

We still await the regulations that will set the ground rules for Starter Homes, but ministerial pronouncements make two things clear; firstly, starter homes will be required in addition to ‘traditional’ affordable products; and, secondly, the £250,000 and (in London) £450,000 cap on the price of starter homes are just that, a cap. Ministers have expressed a hope that starter homes will be delivered at lower price points, which would feed through into lower land values.

Developers are expressing concerns that starter homes on their developments would compete directly with the lower value units. This could result in all smaller units being allocated as starter homes which could freeze out downsizers and investors. They are also weighing up the impact of receiving lower values for ‘traditional’ affordable units – earlier in the cashflow and helping to reduce finance costs – versus slightly higher receipts later in the cashflow and with greater sales risk attached.

Local authorities are faced with the difficult position of accepting starter homes that would require purchasers to have incomes far exceeding average levels in their areas, or seeking lower threshold values below the £250,000 and £450,000 caps that would adversely affect scheme viability. This would inevitably result in lower levels of ‘traditional’ affordable housing for which need is greatest.




• PRIVATE RENTED SECTOR (PRS) The PRS has a crucial role to play in the UK housing market and economy. There is huge potential for this asset class over the next few years to help meet the growing housing demands of the population by delivering a high quality, well managed rental housing stock.

There is currently significant demand for residential portfolios and development projects from a large number of institutions and funds both regionally and in London, with a focus on larger lot size deals. A lot of institutions have been vocal in their pursuit of PRS/Build to Rent product and many are looking at forward funding and forward purchase opportunities.

2016 will see the UK PRS targeted heavily by UK and international institutions. The main obstacle to institutions entering the PRS market is the management/operational hurdle and how they get round this will be the key to their performance going forwards. We are seeing an increasing number of operators enter from the serviced apartment and student spheres looking to capitalise upon this increased demand in the sector.

We have seen gross yields come in from 7% to 5.5% outside London and yields in London have reached 4% over the course of the last 12 months. Outside London, PRS is generally restricted to major cities such as Manchester and Leeds. However, in the South East smaller towns benefiting from good commuter links like Maidenhead, Woking, Bedford and Slough are also attracting the attention of PRS operators.

The key issues facing institutions surrounds volume and product; with the type of PRS product for the locality, we feel, playing a big part in determining the longer term rent projections once the emerging sector has stabilised.

MediaCityUK, Manchester

Darbishire Place, Whitechapel

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