13.02, Wennersten — Lecture on global perspectives on energy
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Transcript of 13.02, Wennersten — Lecture on global perspectives on energy
Global perspective on energyRenewables
Wind powerHydro power Solar power Thermal surfaceThermal geoBiomass
Non RenewablesOil Coal Natural gas PeatNuclear
Ronald Wennersten/KTH2
Non renew
ables
Ronald Wennersten/KTH3
Ronald Wennersten/KTH4
Energy in figures
Ronald Wennersten/KTH5
Energy in figures - Consumption
Per capita energy consumption of different parts of the world in relation to China
1,0014,16
6,886,80
4,880,481,04
0 5 10 15 20
China
United States
Japan
Western Europé
Former SU and Eastern Europé
India Dev. Parts of the world as a
whole
Ronald Wennersten/KTH6
Energy in figures – energy intensity
Energy intensity = energy use per 1$ of gross productEnergy use relative to economic output
0
50
100
150
200USA
Former Soviet and Eastern Europé
Canada
Japan
China
India
OECD
World as a whole
China as Ref
Energy intensity ofdifferent countries
Ronald Wennersten/KTH7
Predicted energy sources• Gas and oil predicted to run out, but coal is plentiful. Giving CO2
emissions for a far future.
Ronald Wennersten/KTH8
Ronald Wennersten/KTH9
• Climate change (CO2, CH4, N2O, etc)• Other pollutants from fossil fuel combustion • Ecological damage from hydroelectric dams• Problems associated with nuclear cycle• . . .
Climate Change – from transport, power generation, heating…
Environmental issues related to energy
Ronald Wennersten/KTH10
Ronald Wennersten/KTH11
Assumption of technology improvements:
# Improved efficiency of fossil fuel energy
# Nuclear
# Renewables
Required to stabilize CO2 level in atmosphere at 550 ppm:# Innovative technologies currently non-commercial # Carbon capture storage# Hydrogen production/advanced transport# Solar # Biotechnology
Emissions reduction - role of technology
Ronald Wennersten/KTH12
Strategies for tackling the problems related to GHG and Climate Change
The problems cannot be solved only by replacing fossile fules with renewable resources
There have to be actions taken on many levels:Technology Economy (Fees ….)Political (Legislation…)Social (Change in peoples behaviour …
These actions have to be coordinated in a cost effective way
The cost for action lower than cost of consequences
Ronald Wennersten/KTH13
Future Energy Options
• Short to mid-term : Enhanced use of natural gas, coal, nuclear?
• Long-term : Renewable energy resources
Ronald Wennersten/KTH14
What about nuclear power?
Ronald Wennersten/KTH15
Nuclear power Coal power
Which energy system has the lowest risk?
Ronald Wennersten/KTH16
Ronald Wennersten/KTH17
Spreading of radioactive material
Ronald Wennersten/KTH18
Nuclear power Coal power
Which energy system has the lowest risk?
Ronald Wennersten/KTH19
Natural gas
Least polluting fossil fuel
Greater portions of proved and potential reserves of NG outside the Middle East
NG’s worldwide energy share over the next 20 years:2.7-3.2% average growth rate of> 40% greater than that of oil
Ronald Wennersten/KTH20
Renewable energy
Hydro powerWind power Solar power Thermal surfaceThermal geo Biomass
Ronald Wennersten/KTH21
Hydro power
• - Large effects on ecosystemsthrough dams and running water
• - Conflicts through change of land use• + Control of flooding
Ronald Wennersten/KTH22
Wind power
Where both wind speed and land areabundant Most competitive with conventionally generated electricity Annual wind power growth rate: >10%Intermittency
Ronald Wennersten/KTH23
Solar power
PhotovoltaicProduction of hydrogen
Solar thermal Integration in low exergy systems
Photovolitic efficiency• Theoretical 29 %• Laboratory 23 %• Commercial product 15 %
Ronald Wennersten/KTH24
Geothermal
0.3 % of global electricity consumption
> 5% of national electricity consumption –only six countries (Iceland, Philippines, New Zealand, Costa Rica, El Salvador, and Kenya)
Capital intensive
Ronald Wennersten/KTH25
Biomass
Direct heating Boiler fuel to generate electricityLiquid fuel for transport CO2-neutral ?Uncomplicated technologyRelatively low costConflicts?
Ronald Wennersten/KTH26
• Use of wasted low grade energy sources from the power plants for heating and coolingBetter efficiency for the power plants
• Less heat lossesDrop in toxic air emissions
COGENERATION
Ronald Wennersten/KTH27
Some examples from Sweden
Ronald Wennersten/KTH28
The 15 national objectivesReduced Climate ImpactClean AirNatural Acidification OnlySafe Radiation EnvironmentA Protective Ozone LayerA Non-Toxic EnvironmentSustainable ForestsA Good Built EnvironmentA Magnificent Mountain LandscapeA Varied Agricultural LandscapeZero EutrophicationFlourishing Lakes and StreamsGood-Quality GroundwaterA Balanced Marine Environment,Flourishing Coastal Areas and ArchipelagosThriving Wetlands
Ronald Wennersten/KTH29
The 15 national objectivesReduced Climate ImpactClean AirNatural Acidification OnlySafe Radiation EnvironmentA Protective Ozone LayerA Non-Toxic EnvironmentSustainable ForestsA Good Built EnvironmentA Magnificent Mountain LandscapeA Varied Agricultural LandscapeZero EutrophicationFlourishing Lakes and StreamsGood-Quality GroundwaterA Balanced Marine Environment,Flourishing Coastal Areas and ArchipelagosThriving Wetlands
Ronald Wennersten/KTH30
Ronald Wennersten/KTH31
Fertilisation of energy forest
Heating plant
Bio-fuels
Waste waterTreatment plant
Waste products (sludge)Ash
Municipalities
Ronald Wennersten/KTH32
Hammarby Sjöstad, Stockholm
• One of the biggest housing developments in Europe
• Twice as good as conventional projects• Energy: 60kWh/m², only renewable.• Transport: Reduction 20%. Bus,
underground, bicycle, walking 80% of total.
• Waste: Reduction 20%. Harmful and hazardous waste reduced 50%. 60% of nitrogen and phosphorus back to farming.
• Water: Reduce to half. 95% of phosphorus to farming. Local storm water treatment.
• Building material: Metals, gravel from raw material reduced to half. Reduction of harmful substances with 70%.
Create good examples!
Ronald Wennersten/KTH33
Waste management -state of management in SwedenHousehold waste (2004)
Incineration47%
Landfill9%
Biological treatment
10.4%
Recycling33%
Hazardous0.6%
Ronald Wennersten/KTH34
Comparison of Two Methods of Energy Efficient Houses
S
A
T
DG
Low Exergy Systems
• Systems that can utilize low valued energy in heating and cooling, where the media temperature is close to required indoor air temperature or through use of heat pumps
• S Surface Heating and Cooling• A Air Heating and cooling• G Generation / Conversion of
Cold and Heat• T Thermal Storage• D Distribution
Ronald Wennersten/KTH35
Communities
Ronald Wennersten/KTH36
Ronald Wennersten/KTH37
Heat pumps for domestic heating and cooling
260 MW heating and 48 MW cooling
Ronald Wennersten/KTH38
Ronald Wennersten/KTH39
•30 years of financing of development of heat pumps and systems in co operation between authorities, universities and companies
•Demonstration systems
”Energy collected from all heat pump installationsin Sweden, would pay for all public funding ofheat pump research since 1975, in just four days”
EFF-SYS, Final report
Ronald Wennersten/KTH40
Global trends
Ronald Wennersten/KTH41
Total dependence on fossile fuels
The industrialized society is built upon the transformation of natural resources into different goods. This transformation has been possible only through the use of relatively cheap fossil fuels.
Today we are facing a new situation where these cheap fossil fuel resources are becoming scarcer.
Ronald Wennersten/KTH42
What is the problem?
• Climate change
• Social instability
• International conflicts
Ronald Wennersten/KTH43
Energy and Globalization
• Globalization has stimulated the use of energy even more. Oil and gas demand are high and growing, so much so that the world consumes twice as much oil as is found today
• Countries like China and India have ever growing energy needs, the world does and will continue to depend primarily on oil and gas for our energy requirements now and into the foreseeable future
Ronald Wennersten/KTH44
Decreasing supplies
• The situation is now that the places with the greatest demand can't supply their own needs
• Over the next few decades, oil and gas production in the North Sea, North America and China are expected to fall, or rise too little to keep pace with demand. Only a few places have surplus reserves — chiefly the Middle East, Africa and Russia.
• Decision-makers in the energy industry, government, and international agencies thus face difficult decisions. How will the supply-demand problem be resolved?
Ronald Wennersten/KTH45
Globalization solves the problem?
• One possibility is a continuation of globalization. According to this vision, free markets will ensure that investment capital and fossil fuels alike are distributed efficiently.
Ronald Wennersten/KTH46
Deglobalization?• At the other extreme is a future that
involves more regulation and confrontation
• Rather than free markets, anxious governments will decide how capital and energy supplies are apportioned
• Rather than globalization, this would be "deglobalization" with a continuation of the ‘old ways’ of bi-lateral political agreements securing point to point long term supply lines and markets
Ronald Wennersten/KTH47
Global competition
• We can see many signs of such a development today. China is very active in developing bi-lateral cooperation in Africa to secure supplies of energy and mineral resources as well as gaining control of transport routes e.g. directly pipe crude from the Middle East to Xinjiang
• United States has a global strategy for securing energy supplies where the Middle East has a central role as well as controlling transport routes e.g. the Strait of Malacca.Lately they have also announced increased activity in Africa
Ronald Wennersten/KTH48
• The vast oil and natural gas reserves in the Caspian Sea basin sparked the interest of various international actors beginning in the early 1990s
• Today, development of mechanisms (such as the transnational Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline) to bring these resources to the market continues with involvement of various stakeholders—from multinational oil corporations to the governments of former Soviet states
Global competition
Ronald Wennersten/KTH49
• Russian energy group Gazprom has recently stated in a press release that they will develop the Shtokman field without foreign partners. The Shtokman gas condensate deposit lies in the Barents Sea, in the north of Russia.
• The Shtokman gas will instead be piped to European markets. The Gazprom change in policy came as a total surprise for large multinational oil companies who had expected to get possibilities to take part in the exploration of the vast gas field.
Global competition - Nationalism
Ronald Wennersten/KTH50
Honestly I don´t how toget this burning in all eternity
And is it reallysocially acceptable?
Are there sustainable energy systems?