Erasmus Mundus Action 4 project“Promoting European Education in Sustainable Development”

TEMPUS Joint European Project_ 25163_ 2004 “Bridging the gap between University and businesses”

Professor Eugene NikiforovichHead of Department Institute of HydromechanicsNational Academy of Sciences of Ukraine National Technical University of Ukraine “KPI”

Ukrainian Energy System

Course SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENTNTUU “KPI”, 12-23 February 2007

Content• Foreword: Towards a sustainable energy future• Modern tendencies in the energy system development:

Hydrogen Economy• Ukraine’s Positioning on the International Energy

Markets

• Forecasted Macroeconomic Indicators of Ukraine’s Fuel-and-Energy Demand

• Electric Power Balance• Conclusions

Hydrogen Economy)\

Solar-Hydrogen Energy Cycle

Ukraine’s Positioning on the International Energy Markets

Disadvantages:• shortage of explored reserves of domestic natural gas and oil, and of

nuclear fuel of domestic production;• no diversification of the energy supply sources;• domestic hydropower generation capacities have neared the end of their

potential;• high technogenic burden on the environment;• unsatisfactory technical condition of some energy facilities, including energy

transportation systems.

Advantages:• sufficient natural reserves of coal and nuclear fuel components, such as

uranium and zirconium;• excessive capacities for oil-and-gas transportation, and electric power

exports;• advantageous geographical and geopolitical position of the country;• well-developed energy infrastructure;• highly-skilled human resources.

Overview of Primary Energy Resources Utilization and Energy Consumption by End Users

Indices of Energy Dependence for Ukraine and Other Countries, in 2000 - 2004, (%)

80,161,4 68,9 74,3

50,0 55,935,9

90,0 82,197,9

34,1

64,7 71,6

33,3 26,5

57,7

23,811,6

60,7

-8,9-27,2

Bel

gium

Den

mar

k

Ger

man

y

Gre

ece

Spai

n

Fran

ce

Finl

and

Swed

en

Engl

and

Irela

nd Italy

Luxe

mbu

rg

Net

herla

nds

Aus

tria

Port

ugal

Esto

nia

Cze

chia

Hun

gary

Rom

ania

Pola

nd

Ukr

aine

Primary Energy Consumption Pattern: Ukraine, EU-15, the U.S.A. and the global average

100%100%100%100%Total

7%6%4%14%Hydro- and other renewable energy sources

8%15%17%7%Uranium

23%16%19%23%Coal

38%41%19%35%Oil

24%22%41%21%Natural gas

U.S.A.EU-15UkraineGlobal average

Specific Annual Primary Energy Consumption in the World, tons of standard fuel per capita

(source: International Energy Agency)The energy supply level of a country is normally described by a specific primary

energy consumption rate expressed in tons of standard fuel per capita

4,36,2

3,61,8

0,51,2

6,46,3

15,6

The

U.S

.

Japa

n

EU-1

5

Chi

na

Indi

a

Turk

ey

East

ern

Euro

pe CIS

Ukr

aine

3,63,44,6Eastern EuropeЄвропаЄвропа

0,50,50,3India

1,81,61,3Turkey

1,21,00,8China

3,7

5,1

6,2

6,2

15,5

2000

4,37,1Ukraine

6,27,5CIS

6,45,7EU 15 states

6,35,2Japan

15,614,2The U.S.

20051990

Specific Annual Power Consumption in the World and Ukraine, in kWh per capita

(source: International Energy Agency)the overall technological level of a country is indirectly characterized by a

specific power consumption rate that is expressed in kWh per capita

12792

77276813

1170485

1592

34584731

3789

U.S

.

Japa

n

EU

-15

Chi

na

Indi

a

Turk

ey

Eas

tern

Eur

ope

CIS

Ukr

aine

2005

GDP Energy Content in the World, kg of standard fuel per USD

(source: Key World Energy Statistics, 2003, 2004)Overall fuel-and-energy efficiency of an economy is normally described

by a primary energy consumption to GDP ratio (that is known as a

GDP energy content)

0,360,43

0,20 0,200,26 0,26 0,24 0,23

0,330,40

0,34

0,43

0,30

0,39

0,26

0,84

0,50

0,33 0,34

0,24

0,34

0,89

U.S

.

Can

ada

Aus

tria

Den

mar

k

Fra

nce

Ger

man

y

Spai

n

U.K

.

Sw

eden

Fin

land

Pol

and

Cze

chia

Hun

gary

Lith

uani

a

Tur

key

Ukr

aine

Rus

sia

Bel

arus

Aust

ralia

Chi

na

Japa

n

Glo

bal a

vera

ge

Forecasted Macroeconomic Indicators of Ukraine’s Fuel-and-Energy Demand

Forecast for GDP Growth Rates, UAH billion (price base of 2005)

1059,3

1397,2

691,5809,8

929,4

1792,3

791,9

575,1

1286,2

1056,9

852,4677,7

523,7

413,9* 582,5476,2

200

500

800

1100

1400

1700

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

UA

H b

illio

n (p

rice

base

of 2

005)

Best Case

Base Case

Worst Case

Forecasted Consumption of Primary Energy and the Structural and Technological Energy Saving

Indices for the Period until 2030, mln tons of standard fuel (Base Case Scenario)

200,6 213,8 227,0 244,3302,7

66,4109,8

137,5

198,1

25,3

54,4

120,3

7,9

2005* 2010 2015 2020 2030

Structural energy saving

Technological energy saving

Consumption of primary energy

Ukraine Power Industry

• Installed capacity of electric power• Electric power production by EPS• Main power generating capacities • Electric power consumption • Structure of power resources in electric

power and heat production by EPS• NPS of Ukraine• Electric Power Balance

91793

34269235

948

15296

4707

26444 25035

169825

10095 128935750

50358

21040

93239

31900

Industry Agriculturalsector

Transportsector

Constructionsector

Communaland

householdconsumers

Other non-industrial

consumers

Population Powerconsumed for

itstransmission

throughnetworks

2005 2030

Forecast of Electric Power Consumption by Consumer Groups (million kW/hour)

Structure of Generating Capacity of Ukrainian Power Plants

(base-case scenario)

TPP and CHPP30.1

57.8%

HPP and HPSP

4.79.1%

NPP13.8

26.6%

Local plants and

other facilities

3.46.5%

TPP and CHPP42.2

47.6%HPP and

HPSP10.5

11.9%

NPP29.5

33.3%

Local plants and

other facilities

6.37.1%

2005 2030

Development of Electric Power Generation (billion kWh)

8,6 9,9 11,6 12,9 15,512,3 12,5 14,6 16,6 18,6

88,8101,2

110,5

158,9

219,0

86,6

114,4

118,6

167,0

75,5

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

2005 2010 2015 2020 2030

billi

on k

Wh

TPP and CHPP

NPP

HPP and HPSP

Local plants and other sources

185,2210,2

251,0

307,0

40,8%

47,9%

39,8%

52,1%

420,1

Basic Indices of the Development of Electric Power Industry of Ukraine for the Period until 2030

00000II. Electric power imports

100100858543including: other local sources of power

2100160088513551Б). Power generation capacities using renewable energy sources (except small HPP)

13400113001066597758593А). Local power plants**

155003,7%

129004,2%

115504,6%

99104,7%

86444,7%

2). Local power plants and other sources,percentage in total generation, including:

21900052,1%

15890051,8%

11050044,0%

10120048,1%

8875647,9%

Г). Nuclear power plants (NPP)percentage in total generation

45001,1%

39001,3%

32001,3%

22001,0%

1930,1%

В). Hydroelectric pumped storage plants (HPSP)percentage in total generation

141003,4%

127004,1%

114004,5%

103004,9%

121286,5%

Б). Hydropower plants (HPP)*percentage in total generation

16700039,8%

11860038,6%

11435045,6%

8659041,2%

7551540,8%

А). Thermal and Combined Heat-and-power Plants (TPP and CHPP), percentage in total generation

4046002941002394502002901765921). General-purpose power plants, including:

42010036,8%

30700022,3%

25100019,4%

21020013,5%

185236-

I.I. Power generation, totalGrowth rate to the last period (%), including:

420100307000251000210200185236

А. Power supply, total ((billion kWh)

20302020201520102005Indicators

Forecasted Fuel Balance for TPPs, CHPPs and Local Generating Plants (taking account of local sources)

until 2030 (million tons of standard fuel).

2005

Gas17.6

47.4%

Coal19.2

51.8%

Fuel oil0.3

0.8%

2030

Fuel oil0,3

0,4%

Coal59.4

85.1%

Gas10,1

14,5%

Fuel oil0.3

0.4%

Gas10.1

14.5%

Conclusions

• To ensure forecasted economic and social development of the country until 2030 according to the base-case scenario it is envisaged to increase electricity generation from 185.2 billion kWh in 2005 to 420.1 billion kWh in 2030, heat generation from 241.0 million Gcal to 430.9 million Gcalcorrespondingly.

• The volume of fuel imported for electricity and heat generation by power plants is planned to be reduced from 41.4 million tons of standard fuel in 2005 to 12.4 million tons of standard fuel in 2030.

• Due to application of the modern technologies of coal combustion, use of new equipment for purification of emissions from TPPs, as well as further development of renewable resources of energy, technogenic burden on the environment will be reduced substantially.

The implementation of the Energy Strategy of Ukraine under the base-case scenario of economic development guarantees the fulfillment of tasks and resolving the problems of the fuel and energy complex, the major ones being identified as follows:

• Ensuring reliable and quality supply of energy products to the national economy and population, enhancing economic efficiency and environmental safety based on the introduction of advanced technologies in process of upgrading, reconstruction and construction of energy facilities;• Reducing GDP energy content from 0.48 kg of standard fuel/UAH registered in 2005 to 0.24 kg of standard fuel/UAH in 2030 (that is, by factor of two), due to structural and technological energy saving;

0,240,280,310,37

0,48

0

0,1

0,2

0,3

0,4

0,5

0,6

2005 2010 2015 2020 2030

kg s

f/UA

H

• Optimizing the electricity generation structure by types of fuel keeping the following proportions: nuclear power plants – 52.1%, thermal power plants, combined heat and power plants, industrial plants – 42.9%, other types of power generation – 5.0%. Such electricity generation proportions will ensure economically effective operation of power plants and create conditions for regulation and stable operation of the United Energy System of Ukraine;