13 Jul 2016 - asiawealth.co.th · investment projects in the country which would boost domestic...

Daily Market Outlook 13 Jul 2016

1

Please see disclaimer on last page

Risk appetite on the rise

Expect the SET to trade higher today, joining a global stock rally as markets see solid US economy from last Friday’s job reports still and rising prospects for stimulus actions from major countries and central banks, especially Japan and the ECB. Political uncertainty in Britain have dropped by a certain extent with a new British PM. Apparently, risk appetite has been on the rise at the expense of safe-haven demand. Adding to a positive tone, on the local front, the Cabinet gave the green light to the Bt100bn Thailand Future Fund (TFF) with Bt10bn immediate investments in many road and highway projects, coupled with a new Bt15,000 tax deduction scheme on OTOP products.

Pick of the day: SCC (Bt482.00; NR; Bloomberg TP Bt548.53) Siam Cement PCL is our pick of the day with a very robust

outlook for petrochemical business alongside the imminent

recovery in cement demand domestically, while its valuation is

still interesting. The strong petrochemical business has been

repeatedly affirmed by robust HDPE-Naphtha price spreads in

the region which have been able to continuously stay above

US$700/tonne. Meanwhile, its cement and building material

business has shown positive progress with many infrastructure

investment projects in the country which would boost domestic

cement demand, especially next year. According to the

Bloomberg earnings consensus, SCC’s net profit this year and

next are expected to moderately grow 3% to Bt46.7bn and

Bt48.0bn, respectively. However, we believe analysts will have

to keep on revising up earnings estimates following a recovery

in cement and building material business. At present, the

share price trades at a prospective 2016PER of only 12.0x,

well below the 5-year historical average of 16.0x, and also

offers a dividend yield of around 4.0% p.a. SCC’s price pattern

indicates a strong major uptrend with daily and monthly buy

signals. If the share manages to close above Bt486.00 by the

end of the week, a weekly buy signal will occur, reinforcing the

strength of an upward trend for the share price. SCC is likely

to first break Bt492.00 before moving up further to test

Bt516.00. There is a stop loss at Bt470.00. (Resistance:

486.00, 490.00, 494.00; Support: 478.00, 474.00, 470.00)

Local issue Ads spending down 8% in first half. According to

the survey by Nielsen Thailand, the mainstream media in

country were still being affected by the fragile domestic

economy as big companies like Unilever (Thai) Holdings and

Toyota Motor Thailand decided to cut their advertising

budgets. 1H16 advertising expenditure fell by 7.86% to

Bt55.97bn from Bt60.74bn a year earlier. Only out-of-home

media and internet advertising saw a growth. (The Nation)

Comment: Ads spending should recover as we see clearer

signs of economic recovery such as a mitigation of

drought concerns and positive progress on expansionary

fiscal policies.

Major Indices Close Chg %Chg

SET 1,474.92 +6.5 +0.4

SET50 931.03 +5.0 +0.5

SET P/E (x) 22.5

SET P/BV (x) 1.9

SET Div. Yield (%) 3.2

Dow Jones 18,347.67 +120.7 +0.7

S&P 500 2,152.14 +15.0 +0.7

NASDAQ 5,022.82 +34.2 +0.7

UK 6,680.69 -2.2 -0.0

Germany 9,964.07 +130.7 +1.3

France 4,331.38 +66.9 +1.6

Japan 16,095.65 +386.8 +2.5

South Korea 1,991.23 +2.7 +0.1

Hong Kong 21,224.74 +344.2 +1.6

China 3,049.68 +54.8 +1.8

Taiwan 8,841.46 +55.0 +0.6

Singapore 2,901.82 +25.7 +0.9

Malaysia 1,653.97 +0.1 +0.0

Indonesia 5,099.53 +30.5 +0.6

Philippines 7,937.95 +72.7 +0.9

Trading Summary Buy Sell Net

Institution 6,982 8,788 -1,806

Proprietary 7,729 7,987 -258

Foreign 16,940 13,686 3,254

Individuals 36,706 37,897 -1,190

Total Trading Value 68,358 Btmn

Most Active Value Value Close %Chg

TRUE 7,570 8.60 3.6 BANPU 3,437 16.40 4.5 ADVANC 3,001 169.00 -0.3 IVL 2,803 31.00 4.2 SCC 1,773 482.00 0.8

Commodity Futures Close Chg %Chg

US Crude 46.80 +2.4 +5.4

Brent Crude 48.47 +2.2 +4.8

Gold 1335.30 -21.3 -1.6

FX Rates Close Chg %Chg

USD/THB 35.21 +0.0 +0.1

EUR/USD 1.11 +0.0 +0.0

USD/JPY 104.69 +1.9 +1.8

USD/CNY 6.69 -0.0 -0.1

Source: Bisnews, Bloomberg

Technical picks (support & resistance)

ANAN (S: 4.02, R: 4.84); VGI (S: 6.30, R: 7.45); THAI (S: 24.30, R: 29.00); SET (S: 1,463, R: 1,490)

Thailand Research Department

Mr. Warut Siwasariyanon (No.17923) Tel: 02 680 5041

Mr. Krit Suwanpibul (No.17968) Tel: 02 680 5090

Mrs. Vajiralux Sanglerdsillapachai (No. 17385) Tel: 02 680 5077

Mr. Narudon Rusme, CFA (No.29737) Tel: 02 680 5056

Mr. Napat Siworapongpun (No.49234) Tel: 02 680 5094


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Cabinet gave nod to initial TFF. The cabinet approved earmarking Bt10bn as

seed money for the Bt100bn Thailand Future Fund (TFF), which will invest in

three road projects in the first stage including Bangkok-Rayong motorway, the

outer ring road linking Ayutthaya and Pattaya, and expressway linking Rama III

Road-Dao Kanong-Kanchanaphisek Road. Initially, of the Bt10.0bn which will

be raised solely from Finance Ministry, Bt1.0bn fund will be derived from

Vayupak Fund 1 to set up a revolving fund to guarantee a minimum return to

TFF unit holders. (Bangkok Post)

New Bt15,000 tax deduction scheme approved. The cabinet yesterday

approved a special tax break policy allowing taxpayers to deduct up to Bt15,000

spent on OTOP products from 1-31 Aug from their personal income tax.

Currently, there are 40,699 OTOP entrepreneurs with 80,000 product items

available nationwide. (Bangkok Post) Comment: The move is a part of the

state’s effort to stimulate revenues and create jobs for local people,

eventually strengthening communities.

1H16 new business registrations inched up. Direct-general of the Business

Development Department said new business registrations totaled 31,792

during 1H16, slightly up 1% YoY, with the combined registered capital of

Bt127bn, up 35% YoY. The new registrations were particularly concentrated in

general construction, real estate, machinery sales, food and restaurants, and

business consulting. (Bangkok Post) Comment: The figure is expected to

show more improvement in 2H16 in light of the government’s

infrastructure investments, as well as the Secured Transactions Act,

which recently came into force allowing SMEs and startups to use

inventory, raw materials, and intellectual property as collateral.

Global issues Britain's parliament is to debate a petition signed by more than 4mn

members of the public calling for a second referendum on EU

membership on 5 Sep, but will not take a decision on whether to re-run last

month's vote. Since Britain voted by 52% to 48% to leave the bloc, many people

have called for another referendum to be held. Theresa May, who will take over

from David Cameron as PM on Wednesday, has ruled out a second vote.

Parliament's petitions committee stressed it was not supporting the call for

another referendum. (Reuters)

US Treasury yields rose on Tuesday as expectations of new stimulus in

Japan boosted stocks and reduced demand for safe-haven bonds. Benchmark

10-year notes ended down 24/32 in price to yield 1.513%, up from 1.434% late

on Monday. (Reuters)

The dollar rose to its highest level against the yen in more than two weeks

on Tuesday, as risk appetite continued to drive sentiment after Japan's ruling

coalition won a weekend election. The dollar jumped 1.95% against the yen to

¥104.79, its strongest level since 24 Jun, when the British referendum result

roiled global markets. (Reuters)

USA Wall Street shares broadly rose on Tuesday, with the S&P500 and DJIA

hitting record highs, as cyclical stocks like technology, materials and energy led

the market up on more confidence in the US economy after last Friday’s upbeat

job report. A sharp rebound in crude prices boosted energy shares. (Reuters)

US wholesale inventories rose marginally in May as automobile stocks

tumbled, suggesting inventory investment likely remained a drag on economic


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growth in 2Q16. Wholesale inventories edged up 0.1% from an upwardly

revised 0.7% gain in April. Economists had forecast wholesale inventories rising

0.2% in May. (Reuters)

The US economy likely expanded at a 2.3% rate YoY in 2Q16 following the

latest data on wholesale inventories, the Atlanta Federal Reserve's GDPNow

forecast model showed on Tuesday. The latest GDP estimate was slightly lower

than the 2.4% figure calculated on 6 Jul. (Reuters)

Europe European shares rose on Tuesday, with Italian bank stocks outperforming on

expectations of measures to tackle their bad debts, while better earnings also

helped carmakers' shares. (Reuters)

Asia Hague rules against China: The Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague

on Tuesday rejected China's claims to economic rights across large swathes of

the South China Sea in a ruling that will be claimed as a victory by the

Philippines. China boycotted the case brought by the Philippines and reiterated

it will not be bound by any ruling. Beijing said the ruling will intensify conflict and

even confrontation. (Reuters)

Confidence of China stock investors hits 6-mth high in June: An index for

China stock investor confidence hit 54.9 in June, an increase of 14.9% from

May and the highest level since January, according to a survey by state-owned

China Securities Investor Protection Funds. (Reuters)

Japanese households' inflation expectations weakened in the three

months to June, keeping alive expectations of additional stimulus. The ratio of

households that expect prices to rise a year from now stood at 72.4% in June,

down from 75.7% in March, the BOJ's quarterly survey showed on Tuesday. A

separate index measuring households' confidence about the economy stood at

minus 27.3 in June, worsening from minus 22.5 in March. (Reuters)

Commodities Oil prices surged 5% on Tuesday, the biggest daily gain since April, as

investors' covering of short positions and a technical rebound helped lift the

market off two-month lows. Brent crude futures settled up US$2.22 (+4.8%) at

US$48.47. US crude futures settled up US$2.04 (+4.6%) at US$46.80 a barrel.

However, crude futures pared gains in post-settlement trade after industry

group American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a surprise build of 2.2mn

barrels in US crude stockpiles last week. (Reuters)

Gold saw its biggest one-day fall in three weeks on Tuesday as global

equities rallied on easing political uncertainty in Britain and hopes for more

economic stimulus, which in turn curbed demand for safe-haven assets. Spot

gold fell as much as 1.9% to US$1,329.75 an ounce and was down 1.6% at

US$1,332.86. (Reuters)

Base metals rise: Zinc touched a 13-month peak and nickel hit the highest

since last October on Tuesday as speculators piled in after the selection of a

new PM for Britain and on hopes of more stimulus. Benchmark LME zinc

closed 2.5% higher at US$2,193 a tonne, the strongest since June 1 last year.

(Reuters)


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Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri

1

4 5 6 7 8XD

JAS

XD

BLAND

XD

LTX

11 12 13 14 15XD

VGI

XD

STANLY

18 19 20 21 22XD

TMW

25 26 27 28 29XD

BTS

Jul-16

Date Regions

11-Jul-16 US

12-Jul-16 JPY

13-Jul-16 CNY

13-Jul-16 JPY

15-Jul-16 CNY

15-Jul-16 CNY

15-Jul-16 US

15-Jul-16 US

15-Jul-16 EU Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Jun)

Economic Indicators

Labor Market Conditions Index (Jun)

Industrial Production (YoY) (May)

Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (Q2)

Tertiary Industry Index (MoM) (May)

Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (Q2)

Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun)

Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Jun)

Trade Balance USD (Jun)

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CG Rating

Score Range Number of Logo Description

90 – 100

80 – 89

70 – 79

60 – 69

50 – 59

Below 50

No logo given

Excellent

Very Good

Good

Satisfactory

Pass

N/A

Corporate Governance Report of Thai Listed Companies (CGR). CG Rating by the Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD) in 2015.

Corporate Governance Report disclaimer

The disclosure of the survey result of the Thai Institute of Directors

Association (“IOD”) regarding corporate governance is made pursuant

to the policy of the Office of the Securities and Exchange Commission.

The survey of the IOD is based on the information of a company listed

on the Stock Exchange of Thailand and the Market for Alternative

Investment disclosed to the public and able to be accessed by a

general public investor. The result, therefore, is from the perspective of

a third party. It is not an evaluation of operation and is not based on

inside information.

The survey result is as of the date appearing in the Corporate

Governance Report of Thai Listed Companies. As a result, the survey

result may be changed after that date, Asia wealth Securities Company

Limited does not conform nor certify the accuracy of such survey result.

ADVANC BAFS BCP BIGC BTS CK CPN DRT DTAC DTC EASTW EGCO GRAMMYHANA HMPRO INTUCH IRPC IVL KBANK KCE KKP KTB LHBANK LPN MCOT MINTMONO NKI PHOL PPS PS PSL PTT PTTEP PTTGC QTC RATCH ROBINS SAMARTSAMTEL SAT SC SCB SCC SE-ED SIM SNC SPALI THCOM TISCO TKT TMBTOP VGI WACOAL

AAV ACAP AGE AHC AKP AMATA ANAN AOT APCS ARIP BMCL BOL BROOKBWG CENTEL CFRESH CHO CIMBT CM CNT COL CPF CPI CSL DCC DELTADEMCO ECF EE ERW GBX GC GFPT GLOBAL GUNKUL HEMRAJ HOTPOT HYDRO ICCICHI INET IRC KSL KTC LANNA LH LOXLEY LRH MACO MBK MC MEGAMFEC NBC NCH NINE NSI NTV OCC OGC OISHI OTO PAP PDI PEPG PJW PM PPP PR PRANDA PREB PT PTG Q-CON QH RS S&JSABINA SAMCO SCG SEAFCO SFP SIAM SINGER SIS SITHAI SMK SMPC SMT SNPSPI SSF SSI SSSC SST STA STEC SVI SWC SYMC SYNTEC TASCO TBSPTCAP TF TGCI THAI THANA THANI THIP THRE THREL TICON TIP TIPCO TKTKS TMI TMILL TMT TNDT TNITY TNL TOG TPC TPCORP TRC TRU TRUETSC TSTE TSTH TTA TTCL TTW TU TVD TVO TWPC UAC UT UVVNT WAVE WINNER YUASA ZMICOVNT WAVE WINNER YUASA ZMICO

2S AEC AEONTS AF AH AIRA AIT AJ AKR AMANAH AMARIN AP APCOAQUA AS ASIA AUCT AYUD BA BEAUTY BEC BFIT BH BIG BJC BJCHIBKD BTNC CBG CGD CHG CHOW CI CITY CKP CNS CPALL CPL CSCCSP CSS CTW DNA EARTH EASON ECL EFORL ESSO FE FIRE FOCUS FORTHFPI FSMART FSS FVC GCAP GENCO GL GLAND GLOW GOLD GYT HTC HTECHIEC IFEC IFS IHL IRCP ITD JSP JTS JUBILE KASET KBS KCAR KGIKKC KTIS KWC KYE L&E LALIN LHK LIT LIVE LST M MAJOR MAKROMATCH MATI MBKET M-CHAI MFC MILL MJD MK MODERN MOONG MPG MSC MTIMTLS NC NOK NUSA NWR NYT OCEAN PACE PATO PB PCA PCSGH PDGPF PICO PL PLANB PLAT PPM PRG PRIN PSTC PTL PYLON QLT RCIRCL RICHY RML RPC S SALEE SAPPE SAWAD SCCC SCN SCP SEAOIL SIRISKR SMG SOLAR SORKON SPA SPC SPCG SPPT SPVI SRICHA SSC STANLY STPISUC SUSCO SUTHA SYNEX TAE TAKUNI TCC TCCC TCJ TEAM TFD TFI TICTIW TLUXE TMC TMD TOPP TPCH TPIPL TRT TSE TSR UMI UP UPFUPOIC UREKA UWC VIBHA VIH VPO WHA WIN XO

Source: Thai Institute of Directors (IOD)

6


CG Rating

ขอมล Anti-Corruption Progress Indicator ของบรษทจดทะเบยน

ระดบ 1ACD AEONTS AFC AIRA AJ ALUCON AMC AQUA ARIP AUCT BAT-3K BIG BJCBLISS BMCL BOL BRR BSBM CBG CCET CCN CGD CMR CPH CSC CSPCTW DCON DRACO DSGT DTCI E EMC ESSO FOCUS FSMART GIFT GLANDGRAND GUNKUL HFT HTECH IHL ILINK ITD JSP KDH KTIS KTP LEE LSTMAJOR MATCH MAX M-CHAI MDX MIDA ML MPIC NC NEP NNCL NWR OHTLPICO PK PL PPM PRAKIT PRECHA PRIN PSTC PYLON RAM RICH RS SANKOSAUCE SAWAD SAWANG SCN SEAFCO SF SHANG SIRI SMART SMM SOLAR SPACK SPGSPPT SPVI STA STAR SVH SVOA SWC TAPAC TC TCCC TCJ TCOAT THTKS TNH TNPC TPA TPAC TPOLY TRC TRUBB TSE TTA TTI TTL TTTMTWP TWZ U UMS UPA UPOIC UTP UVAN VARO VI VIBHA VIH VTEWG

ระดบ 22S ABICO AF AKP AMARIN AMATA AOT APCO AYUD BEAUTY BFIT BH BKDBLAND BTNC CCP CI CSR CSS EFORL EPCO FE FNS FVC GEL GLOBALHEMRAJ IEC IFS INET JUTHA KASET KCAR KKC KSL L&E LALIN LTX MMALEE MBK MBKET MEGA MK MPG MTLS NCH NCL NPP OCC OCEAN PBPCA PRINC QH ROCK RPC S&J SGP SIAM SIS SKR SMG SMIT SORKONSUSCO TAKUNI TEAM TF TIC TIP TIPCO TMC TMI TPP TRT TRU TRUETSC TSI TTW TVD TVO UKEM UNIQ UWC VNG WIIK WIN XO

ระดบ 3AABC ACAP ADVANC AEC AGE AH AIE AMANAH ANAN AP APCS APURE ASASIA ASIAN ASIMAR BIGC BROOK BTS BWG CEN CENTEL CFRESH CHARAN CHO CHOTICM CNT COL CPALL CPF CPI CPL DELTA DEMCO DIMET DNA DTAC EAECF EE EVER FPI GBX GC GFPT GLOW HMPRO HOTPOT ICC ICHI IFECINOX INSURE IRC JAS JTS JUBILE KC KTC KYE LHK LPN LRH MAKROMC MCOT MFC MFEC MINT MJD MONO MOONG NBC NDR NINE NMG NSINTV OGC PACE PCSGH PDI PG PHOL PLAT PPS PR PRANDA PREB PSQLT RATCH RML ROBINS ROJNA RWI SAMCO SCCC SCG SEAOIL SE-ED SENA SINGERSITHAI SMK SMPC SPALI SPC SPCG SPI SRICHA SSI STANLY SUPER SVI SYMCSYNEX SYNTEC TASCO TCMC TFI THAI THRE THREL TICON TKT TLUXE TNL TPCORPTMILL TMT TSTE TSTH TTCL TU TVI UOBKH UREKA VGI VNT WACOAL WHAZMICO

ระดบ 3BAAV AHC AI AIT AKR ARROW ASK BA BDMS BEC BECL BJCHI BUICGH CHG CHOW CIG CITY CK CKP COLOR CWT EARTH EASON EPG F&DFANCY FIRE FMT FORTH GENCO GL GOLD GPSC GRAMMY HYDRO IRCP IT JCTKCM KWC LH LIT LOXLEY MACO MANRIN MATI MODERN MSC NOBLE NOK NPKNUSA OISHI OTO PAF PAP PATO PF PJW PLANB PLE POLAR PRG PTLQ-CON QTC RCI S11 SALEE SAM SAMART SAMTEL SAPPE SC SCP SFP SIMSLP SMT SPA SPORT SSC SST STEC STPI SUC SUTHA T TAE TBSPTCC TFD TGCI TGPRO THANA THIP TIW TK TMW TNDT TOPP TPC TPCHTPIPL TSR TT TYCN UAC UBIS UEC UMI UP UPF UT UV VPOWAVE WINNER YUASA

ระดบ 4ASP BAFS BANPU BAY BBL BKI BLA CIMBT CNS CSL DCC DRT DTCEASTW ECL EGCO ERW FSS GCAP HANA HTC INTUCH IRPC IVL KBANK KCEKGI KKP KTB LANNA LHBANK MTI NKI PSL PTG PTTEP SABINA SCB SNCSNP SSF SSSC TCAP THCOM TISCO TIMB TMD TNITY TOG

ระดบ 5BCP CPN GYT PE PM PPP PT PTT PTTGC SAT SCC THANI TOP

ไมเปดเผยหรอไมมนโยบายA ACC AJD AQ BCH BGT BROCK BSM BTC CHUO CPR CRANE EICFER JMART JMT KAMART KBS KIAT LDC MBAX MCS METCO NEW NEWS NYTPAE PDG PERM PMTA POST RCL RICHY ROH S SIMAT TCB TR TSFTVT WORKหมายเหตระดบ 1 : มนโยบายระดบ 2 : ประกาศเจตนารมณระดบ 3 : มมาตรการปองกน ซงทง 2 กรณ ถอเปนผลการประเมนในระดบเดยวกน

3A : บรษทมการประกาศเจตนารมณเขารวมโครงการ CAC หรอภาค3B : บรษทมค ามน และนโยบายของบรษท แตมไดประกาศเจตนารมณเขารวมโครงการ CAC หรอภาค

ระดบ 4 : ไดรบการรบรองระดบ 5 : ขยายผลสผท เกยวของ

7


Contact

Branch Address Phone Fax

Head Office 540 Floor 7,14,17 , Mercury Tower, Ploenchit Road, Lumphini,

Pathumwan Bangkok 10330

02-680-5000 02-680-5111

Silom 191 Silom Complex Building,21st Floor Room 2,3-1 Silom Rd.,

Silom, Bangrak, Bangkok, 10500 Thailand

02-630-3500 02-630-3530-1

Asok 159 Sermmitr Tower, 17th FL. Room No.1703, Sukhumvit 21

Road, Klong Toey Nua, Wattana, Bangkok 10110

02-261-1314-21 02-261-1328

Pinklao

7/3 Central Plaza Pinklao Office Building Tower B, 16th Flr.,

Room No.1605-1606 Baromrajachonnanee Road, Arunamarin,

Bangkoknoi, Bangkok 10700

02-884-7333 02-884-7357,

02-884-7367

Chaengwattana

99/99 Moo 2 Central Plaza Chaengwattana Office Tower, 22nd

Flr., Room 2204 Chaengwattana Road, Bang Talad, Pakkred,

Nonthaburi 11120

02-119-2300 02-8353006

Chaengwattana 2

9/99 Moo 2 Central Plaza Chaengwattana Office Tower, 22nd Flr.,

Room 2203 Chaengwattana Road, Bang Talad, Pakkred,

Nonthaburi 11120

02-119-2388 02-119-2399

Mega Bangna 39 Moo6 Megabangna, 1st Flr., Room 1632/7 Bangna-Trad

Road, Bangkaew Bangplee, Samutprakarn 10540

02-106-7345 02-105-2070

Rayong 356/18 Sukhumvit Road, Nuen-Phra Sub District, Muang

District, Rayong Province 21000

038-808200 038-807200

Khonkaen 26/9 Srijanmai Road, Tamboonnaimuang, Khon Khaen

40000

043-334-700 043-334-799

Chonburi 55/22 Moo 1, Samed Sub District, Muang District, Chonburi

20000

038-053-858 038-784-090

Chaseongsao 233-233/2 Moo2 1st Flr., Sukprayoon Road, Na Meung Sub-

District, Meung District, Chachoengsao 24000

038-981-587 038-981-591

13 Jul 2016 - asiawealth.co.th · investment projects in the country which would boost domestic...

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