12b1 ExtratropicalTransition Exercise Group3-UKMET-Part1 · Initial Situation 00 UTC 22 nd NHC...
Transcript of 12b1 ExtratropicalTransition Exercise Group3-UKMET-Part1 · Initial Situation 00 UTC 22 nd NHC...
![Page 1: 12b1 ExtratropicalTransition Exercise Group3-UKMET-Part1 · Initial Situation 00 UTC 22 nd NHC Operational Analysis 03 UTC 22nd Location: 31.8°N 56.3°W Intensity: 75 kt Central](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022060510/5f27814800edbf47a15b7157/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Initial Situation00 UTC 22nd
NHC Operational Analysis
03 UTC 22nd
Location: 31.8°N 56.3°W
Intensity: 75 kt
Central Pressure: 970 mb
Movement: NNE 12 kt
Structure64 KT....... 35NE 35SE 30SW 30NW
50 KT....... 70NE 90SE 60SW 60NW
34 KT.......180NE 200SE 200SW 175NW
12 FT SEAS..400NE 300SE 350SW 350NW
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Phase Space Diagram 1UKMET Analysis through 00 UTC 22nd
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Phase Space Diagram 2UKMET Analysis through 00 UTC 22nd
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Current Status
• How would you describe the cyclone at this point based on the phase space analysis?
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UKMET Model ForecastsModel Initialized at 00 UTC 22nd
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Analysis Valid at 00 UTC 22nd
MSLP and 10-m winds 850-mb rel vort and winds
MSLP, 500-mb height, abs vort and winds MSLP and 250-mb winds
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Forecast Valid at 12 UTC 22nd
MSLP and 10-m winds 850-mb rel vort and winds
MSLP, 500-mb height, abs vort and winds MSLP and 250-mb winds
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Forecast Valid at 00 UTC 23rd
MSLP and 10-m winds 850-mb rel vort and winds
MSLP, 500-mb height, abs vort and winds MSLP and 250-mb winds
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Forecast Valid at 12 UTC 23rd
MSLP and 10-m winds 850-mb rel vort and winds
MSLP, 500-mb height, abs vort and winds MSLP and 250-mb winds
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Forecast Valid at 00 UTC 24th
MSLP and 10-m winds 850-mb rel vort and winds
MSLP, 500-mb height, abs vort and winds MSLP and 250-mb winds
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Forecast Valid at 12 UTC 24th
MSLP and 10-m winds 850-mb rel vort and winds
MSLP, 500-mb height, abs vort and winds MSLP and 250-mb winds
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Forecast Valid at 00 UTC 25th
MSLP and 10-m winds 850-mb rel vort and winds
MSLP, 500-mb height, abs vort and winds MSLP and 250-mb winds
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Forecast Valid at 12 UTC 25th
MSLP and 10-m winds 850-mb rel vort and winds
MSLP, 500-mb height, abs vort and winds MSLP and 250-mb winds
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Forecast Valid at 00 UTC 26th
MSLP and 10-m winds 850-mb rel vort and winds
MSLP, 500-mb height, abs vort and winds MSLP and 250-mb winds
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UKMET Forecast
• When does ET begin?
• When does ET end?