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Global Trends in Arms Control and Disarmament: Implications for

Pakistan

A one day seminar, titled, Global Trends in Arms Control and Disarmament:

Implications for Pakistan was held at the Institute of Strategic Studies,

Islamabad. The Seminar was inaugurated by Lt.Gen Agha Muhammad Umer

Farooq, President, National Defence University, Islamabad, followed by two

lively sessions, each session concluding with a very interesting question and

answer session. The Director General/Chairman, Institute of Strategic

Studies, Ambassador Tanvir Ahmad Khan, in his welcome address, shed light

on the importance of nuclear issues, which can mean life and death for

millions in a situation of conflict. He went on to explain the various trends in

nuclear thinking and how it has evolved over the years and the continuing

need to anticipate and prepare for the future, the implications of these global

shifts.

Lieutenant General Agha Muhammad Umer Farooq, President National

Defence University (NDU) Islamabad, during his Inaugural address,

highlighted global trends in arms control and disarmament and further

elaborated on the implications, these trends have globally, regionally, and

specifically on Pakistan. He said while President Obama has talked about an

ambitious plan to have Zero Nuclear Weapons, the US has demonstrated

double standards. The US has not ratified the CTBT and its Nuclear Review

Posture (NRP), which signifies that the US will continue to rely on its nuclear

potentials to pursue foreign policy objectives. Hence, he was of the opinion, it

is highly unlikely that the international community would see a world free of

nuclear weapons in foreseeable future, as the ongoing arms control efforts

may prove counterproductive. In the national context, the Chief Guest said

that Indias ABM and well-developed space program, supported by Israel, is a

point of serious concern for Pakistan. In addition, he added, the Indo-US

nuclear deal as well as cooperation in conventional field is likely to grow in

Indias favor, thus accelerating arms race. Maintaining minimum credible

nuclear deterrence would require Pakistan to review its nuclear policy.

Pakistan is a responsible NWS which was not the first to initiate nuclear racein South Asia, he said, adding, while Pakistan will continue to act with

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responsibility avoiding an arms race, it will not remain oblivious to the

imperative of maintaining minimum credible nuclear deterrence.

The first speaker in the first session was Ambassador Tariq Osman Hyder,

who outlined global trends that have an impact on arms control and

disarmament. He explained how the NPT came under strain, when certain

developing Non Nuclear member States demanded their right to complete

access to nuclear technology for peaceful purposes. Furthermore, he also

focused on the varying nature of arms control and disarmament objectives

and how they fail to remain at par with global realities.

Brig. (R) Feroz Hassan Khan, gave a speech on World After START:

Implications for Pakistan. During his speech he outlined three main worries

the world holds in regard to Pakistan, namely (1) Pakistans position on

FMCT, (2) failure of dtente and rapprochement between Pakistan and India

and (3) Internal societal trends in Pakistan. Elaborating on his first point, he

said the nuclear security issue is well understood in the United States and it is

a dead issue now. Also, later during the answer/question session, he said that

there is no external threat to Pakistan but internal stability is a matter of great

concern.

Brig. Naeem Salik, in his presentation, was of the view that the year 2010

was an extremely eventful year as far as arms control and disarmament are

concerned. He explained the announcement of the Global Zero initiative by

President Obama and the realization that this is not possible in the near

future. Similarly, assurances were given to non nuclear states in this respect

and allies were also assured that they would be provided deterrence. Among

others, he also threw light on the relentless propaganda about Pakistans

nuclear programme. Ms. Regina Galer, Political Officer/Director US

Department of Energy, US Embassy, briefly explained the US Official

Position. She elaborated on the START treaty, concluded with Russia, and

said that the US was looking forward to working with its partners on arms

control and disarmament.

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Dr. Zafar Nawaz Jaspal, in his presentation, titled, CD Agenda in 2011:

Critical Appraisal lay emphasis on the various aspects of Conference on

Disarmament agenda and how it has evolved over time. He pointed out the

positive developments, including President Obamas speech at Prague on

April 5, 2009 and among others, the new START treaty. While explaining the

negative developments, he said the United States and its allies have been

developing Missile Defense Systems and have stressed upon rebuilding

Americas aging nuclear infrastructure.

Ambassador (R) Tariq Fatemi chaired the second session of the event that

covered energy resources with special reference to Pakistan. The speakers

for the session included Ms. Sannia Abdullah, Lecturer, DSS Department at

the Quaid-e-Azam University, and Mr. Malik Qasim Mustafa and Ms. Saira

Abbasi, both Research Fellows at the Institute of Strategic Studies.

Mr. Mustafa began the session with his presentation on Nuclear Energy:

Prospects for Pakistan, where he gave a detailed statistical account of the

current status of resources, and their prospective paths in the coming

decades. He asserted that Pakistan sees a growing demand for energy even

as reserves are declining and prices rising in a situation that could lead to

major energy conflicts. Nuclear energy provides a clean and efficient source

that could greatly mitigate current concerns. Mr. Mustafa noted that Pakistan

currently has two nuclear reactors while several more are planned, and it is

not surprising that this level of interest has been given to this source of energy

as the country plans to use nuclear power to produce 8800MW of electricity

by 2030. In the present times, while economic and technological constraints

are limiting energy resource use, Pakistan ranks highest among South Asian

countries in the Energy Development Index of 2010. Making use of the

potential that nuclear power, a path that Pakistan has taken already, also

requires international cooperation and the need to address the political and

economic constraints that hinder progress on this front.

The second speaker, Ms. Sannia Abdullah then presented her paper on

Energy the coal story, discussing a topic that is not understood very well in

Pakistan. She noted that the country is in the midst of several crises, including

energy, and the immense coal reserves including but not limited to Thar,could provide numerous benefits if the potential is availed. She pointed out

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that 185 billion tons of coal reserves are spread all over the country, and with

a large percentage suitable for gasification or belonging to the

proven/measured category, they provide an effective method to reduce the

costs incurred on oil imports. In addition, making use of this natural reserve

will allow employment generation for over 200,000 people. Compared to other

alternative sources of energy such as hydro, wind and solar, Ms. Abdullah

noted that using coal reserves will be sustainable in the long run. This

necessitates technological progress, where there are high chances of

Chinese and American assistance while Pakistan too has the capacity to lead

the process. Pakistan loses over a billion dollars each year due to electricity

shortage. Natural reserves of coal, if used effectively, will not only play a huge

role in economic revival but also prove a reliant source of sustainable energy

that lasts throughout the year.

Ms. Saira Abbasi then presented her paper on Alternative sources of energy

for Pakistan solar and wind in what was the final presentation of the day.

She discussed Pakistans existing energy situation, pointing out economic and

technological constraints and a large gap between demand and supply,

factors that necessitate a paradigm shift from traditional to other sources of

energy. Being largely untapped, wind and solar power, she indicated, are

suitable alternatives that need to be made use of since the country is seeing

an electricity shortage that reportedly lies between 4000.MW and 6000 MW

and is causing severe socioeconomic and livelihoods issues. Using alternative

renewable sources of energy such as wind and power will provide two-fold

benefits in that they will ensure energy and economic needs are fulfilled and

also play their part in environmental sustainability. As far as solar power is

concerned, Ms. Abbasi noted that while expensive investment initially, it does

not require continual expenditure and is suitable for Pakistan due to its user

and environment-friendly factors and the countrys sunny weather. Moreover,

it is a suitable source of energy for the thousands of villages all over the

country where energy needs are low and they are far away from the national

grid, where connecting them through transmission lines would be unfeasible.

Similarly, she noted that wind power also offered much potential specially in

Sindh and Balochistan and is a source that has not been utilized so far.Despite their uses, she concluded, Pakistan requires a holistic approach to

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solving its energy needs as no single solution is enough for a sustainable

future.