04/21/23 1

Norman Walzer and Brian HargerSenior Research Scholar Research Associate

Presented to

Downstate Summit: Creating a Common VoiceSeptember 29, 2011

Effingham, Illinois

Trends, Issues & PotentialDownstate Illinois

Center for Governmental Studies

Overview

• Population Trends

– 2000 to 2010

– Changes in Percentage Elderly

– 2010 to 2020

• Similarities Between Downstate/Metro/Rural

• Trends in Illinois and Surrounding States

• Motivations for Collaboration

• Downstate Responses

04/21/23 2Center for Governmental Studies

Population Change 2000 to 2010

04/21/23 3Center for Governmental Studies

Population Change 2000 to 2010Age 65 Years and Older

04/21/23 4Center for Governmental Studies

Population Change 2010 to 2020

04/21/23 5Center for Governmental Studies

Illinois Population Trends by County1990, 2000, 2010

Area Name Growth to Loss Loss to Loss Loss to GrowthGrowth to

Growth

Chicago Metropolitan Area(Percent of 9 counties)

1(11.1)

--   --8

(88.9)

Downstate Metropolitan Areas(Percent of 27 Counties)

4(14.8)

5(18.5)

2(7.4)

16(59.3)

Downstate Non-Metropolitan Areas (Percent of 66 counties)

28(42.4)

20(30.3)

8(12.1)

10(15.2)

Total(Percent of 102 counties)

33(32.4)

25(24.5)

10(9.8)

34(33.3)

04/21/23 6

Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau, decennial Census of Population and Housing 1990, 2000, 2010.

Center for Governmental Studies

Age Trends by County2000 to 2020

Area Name

Median Age (Percent 65 Years of Age and Older)

2000 2010 2020

Chicago Metropolitan Area33.4

(10.8)35.2

(10.7)35.6

(11.3)

Downstate Metropolitan Areas37.1

(13.6)39.7

(13.9)40.2

(16.7)

Downstate Non-Metropolitan Areas38.4

(16.4)41.6

(17.0)41.7

(19.8)

State of Illinois34.7

(12.1)36.3

(12.5)37.1

(15.0)

04/21/23 7

Data Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, decennial Census of Population and Housing 2000, 2010; Woods and Poole Economics, Inc., 2020.

Center for Governmental Studies

Industry Employment, 2000 and 2010(Illinois and Surrounding States)

Industry

State of Illinois Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Missouri, and Wisconsin

Rural Counties

Micropolitan Counties

Metropolitan Counties

StateRural

CountiesMicropolitan

CountiesMetropolitan

CountiesRegion

Manufacturing

2000 44,878 80,700 754,181 879,759 312,261 432,795 1,474,845 2,219,901

2010 28,969 52,239 487,561 568,769 232,746 287,661 1,026,305 1,546,712

Percent Change -35.4 -35.3 -35.4 -35.3 -25.5 -33.5 -30.4 -30.3

Wholesale and Retail Trade

2000 43,814 90,809 968,281 1,102,904 282,622 328,354 1,665,457 2,276,433

2010 39,699 86,354 865,623 991,676 268,772 308,101 1,530,657 2,107,530

Percent Change -9.4 -4.9 -10.6 -10.1 -4.9 -6.2 -8.1 -7.4

Services

2000 82,744 187,712 2,539,860 2,810,316 512,559 633,615 3,813,806 4,959,980

2010 83,899 194,296 2,862,375 3,140,570 575,925 736,316 4,394,148 5,706,389

Percent Change 1.4 3.5 12.7 11.8 12.4 16.2 15.2 15.0

04/21/23 8

The U.S. Office of Management and Budget defines metropolitan and micropolitan areas. The definitions used for calculations in this table were released June 30, 2003.

Data Source: Woods and Poole Economics, Inc., 2011.

Center for Governmental Studies

Average Wage per Job, 1980 to 2008Illinois Regions

04/21/23 9

Gap $2,185

Gap $1,276

Gap $3,97

7

Gap $2,136

Center for Governmental Studies

Motivations for Collaboration

• Continued Population Declines in Downstate Rural

• Rural Areas will Lose Representation

• Non-metro Depends on Metro for Jobs

• Elderly Need Access to Health Care

• Youth Desire Access to High-Paying Employment

• Metro Businesses Rely on Non-metro for Customers

• Metro Businesses Need Dependable Work Force

• Difficult for Small Governments to Provide Services

• Small Governments Benefit from Regional Economies of Scale

04/21/23 10Center for Governmental Studies

How Can Downstate Respond?

• Communicate– With Other Local Governments

– With General Assembly in a More Organized Way

• Cooperate in Regional Strategies• Collaborate Actively to Make Areas Better• Consolidate Units of Government When Needed• Centralize Services If Other Options Are Exhausted

04/21/23 11Center for Governmental Studies

For Further InformationContact:

Center for Governmental StudiesNorthern Illinois University

De Kalb, IL 60115815-753-1907

www.NIUCGS.org

Norman Walzer Brian HargerSenior Research Scholar Research Associatenwalzer@niu.edu bharger@niu.edu