Agrarian change and impact on farmers

G. V. Ramanjaneyulu

Agrarian Change• Changes in Agriculture Practices

– High external input agriculture– Mono culturing of crops, varieties and genes– High use of chemicals– Shift to irrigated farming and neglect of rainfed crops

• Changes in Economic policies– Decreasing subsidies and public support– Increasing cost of credit, inputs– Non-remunerative prices – Increasing living costs due to state with drawl from providing basic

services

• Changes in access to resources– Productive resources (Land, water and seeds ) getting alienated– Increasing tenant farmers– Seeds becoming proprietary technologies

India: home of family farms

• Between 1960-61 and 2003, the total number of operational holdings increased from 50.77 million to 101.27 million.

• During the same period, the total operated area declined from 133.46 million hectares to 107.65 million hectares.

• Thus average operated area declined from 2.63 hectares to 1.06 hectares.

(NSSO, Some Aspects of Operational Land Holdings in India, various issues)• increasing absentee landlordism • India is the home of worlds largest farm laborers and land

workers

Shifts in cropping patternsMillion ha

No Crop 1970-71 1980-81 1990-91 2000-01 2010-11

1 Rice 37.6 40.1 42.7 44.7 42.1

2 Wheat 18.2 22.3 24.2 25.7 29.2

3 Jowar 17.4 15.8 14.4 9.9 7.1

4 Bajra 12.9 11.7 10.5 9.8 9.4

5 Maize 5.8 6 5.9 6.6 8.5

6 Other cereals 9.9 8.3 5.5 3.3 2.1

7 Gram 7.8 6.6 7.5 5.2 9.2

8 Tur 2.7 2.8 3.6 3.6 4.4

9 Cotton 7.6 7.8 7.4 8.6 11.1

Monoculturing crops, varieties, genes, trees & animals

• Today Cotton, Maize, Paddy, Sugar Cane are the only crops whose area increasing

• Within crops 80% of the production comes from few genetic backgrounds

• Increasing area under hybrid crops in areas not suitable like rainfed areas, hill regions

• 99 % of the cotton with bt genes to fight four major pests..several others in pipeline

• Promotion of water intensive orchards in rainfed areas• Promotion of cross bred animals, buffaloes in rainfed areas

2000-01

2001-02

2002-03

2003-04

2004-05

2005-06

2006-07

2007-08

2008-09

2009-10

2010-11

2011-120

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

278308 302

399

470 472521

554524

503 517481

0% 0% 0% 1%6%

18%

41%

62%

84% 85% 85%90%

Bt cotton yield increase

Yield in kgs per hectare % area under BT

After Bt cotton only 2% increase

Data for % area under BT for 2010-11 and 2011-12 are estimates and for 2005-06 is interpolated

Before Bt Cotton 70% increase

Pesticides poisoning past, present and future

• Acute poisoning effects• Agriculture workers killed

• Chronic poisoning effects• Children growth effected• Effect on reproductive health

• Pesticides increased costs of cultivations• Rs. 1000 to 15000/acre

• Ecological Disturbances• Beneficials killed, pest shifts• Pest resistances, pest

resurgences • Poisoning of resources

• Soils• Water• Milk• Food (NIN study found18

pesticides found in Vegetables in Hyderabad, 2012)

Globally banned 66 chemical pesticides are still in use in India

Fertilisers 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12

Indigenous Urea 7.79 8.52 10.24 10.65 12.65 12.95 17.97 17.58 15.08 13.31

Imported Urea 0.00 0.00 0.49 1.21 3.27 6.61 10.08 4.60 6.40 6.98

Sale of decontrolled fertiliser with concession to farmers 3.23 3.33 5.14 6.60 10.30 12.93 48.56 39.08 33.50 29.71

Total Fertiliser Subsidy 11.02 11.85 15.88 18.46 26.22 32.49 76.60 61.26 54.98 50.00*

* Revised estimate is 90.00 th cr

(‘000 crore)

Fertilizer issues

• Fertilizer use efficiency less than 50%• Factor productivity of fertilizer coming down• Fertilizer production largely dependent on

Petroleum products and prices fluctuate with them

• Phosphotic and Potash reserves coming down• Increasing micronutrient deficiencies resulting

in newer diseases

Depleting natural resources• Increasing dark zones due

to groundwater depletion• 30 % of soils are reported

to be saline by the recent study by ministry of environment

• New water policy

Whose Self Sufficiency?

Farmers income and expenditure

Reducing incomes• Increasing costs of cultivation• Reducing Subsidies• Fluctuating Market Prices• Inflation has double impactIncreasing living expenditures• With drawl of public sector from providing basic services• While total development expenditure as a share of GDP

was fourteen and a half per cent in 1989-90, it was 5.9 per cent by 2005.

Income and Expenditure of farmersLand holding

Category Total Income (Rs/month)

Expenditure(Rs/month)

Percent of farmers

<0.01 Landless 1380 2297 36 % 0.01-0.4 Sub marginal 1633 2390

0.4-1.0 Marginal 1809 2672 31 %

1.0-2.0 Small 2493 3148 17 %

2.0-4.0 Semi-medium 3589 3685 10 %

4.0-10.0 Medium 5681 4626 6 %

>10.0 Large 9667 6418 Total 2115 2770 All

farmers

Source: Report “On Conditions Of Work And Promotion Of Livelihoods In The Unorganised Sector” Arjun Sen Gupta Committee, 2007

Monthly Per Capita Consumption Expenditure

Range (in Rupees)

Rural India

Urban India

Bottom 10% pop

10-20 % pop

20-30 % pop

30-40 % pop

40-50 % pop

50-60 % pop

60-70 % pop

70-80 % pop

80-90 % pop

90-100 % pop

All

Source: National Sample Survey 66th Round, 2012

66th NSSO survey: creating employment or unemployment?

• UPA government generated only 2 million jobs between 2004 and 2009 against Planning Commission’s target of 58 million jobs between 2007-12.

• the employment rate has actually declined in the five year period ended 2009-10 to 39.2 per cent from 42 per cent in 2004-05. during this 5 year period, only 2 million jobs were added compared with 55 million who joined the workforce aged between 15-59 years.

• 25.1 million people lost their self-employment• The report by NSSO also shows an increase in the number

of casual workers by 21.9 million, while growth in the number of regular workers nearly halved between 2004-05 and 2009-10, compared with the previous 5 year period. .

Unremunerative prices• MSP determination is faulty and unscientific.

• Governments keep the prices low to ensure cheap labor and cheap inputs, and food security for poor

• Minimum Support Prices are announced for 25 commodities but market intervention only for rice, wheat, cotton

• Agricultural prices don’t account for living costs of rural families. Rising inflation has double impact on farmers with increasing living costs & decreasing incomes

• Removal of quantitative restrictions and allowing cheaper imports

• Restrictions on exports on certain crops depressing local market prices

Paddy: Cost of Cultivation and MSP (Rs/q) in AP

1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

Cost of cultivation rs/q Msp rs/q

Comparision of Costs and MSP

Source: CACP Kharif Price Report,, 2011-12

Crop

Cost/quintal(CACP est.)

Cost/quintal (State govt est.)

Recommended MSP

Paddy 896 1270 1080

Jowar 1393 1145 980

Maize 935 1114 980

Tur 2373 3668 3100

Groundnut 3185 3324 2700

Sunflower 2799 3439 2800

Cotton 2579 3828 2900

Moong 2974 3480 3400

Real Prices lower than MSP (2010-11)

Source: CACP Kharif Price Report,, 2011-12

Crop

MSP M.P. Maha -rashtra

Gujarat Rajasthan

Paddy 1000 850 785853

Jowar 880 500, 601

851

Maize 880 860 793

Bajra 880 620700

Prices to Farmers during 2010-11 and 2011-12

Crop 2010-11 Rs/Quintal 2011-12 Rs/QuintalCotton 6500 3600Turmeric 14000 4000Chillies 12000 5500Redgram 5000 3500Blackgram 5200 3500Bajra 4000 2000Jowar 2500 1800Onion 16000 2500Sweet Orange 75000 60000

Reducing institutional credit• The share of agricultural credit in total bank lending nearly doubled from

around 10% in the mid-1970s to about 18% in the late 1980s. • The share of agricultural credit in total bank lending declined from the

peak of 18% in the late 1980s to about 11% in 2005, the decline has continued since then.

• Rural branches of commercial banks has declined from 51.2% in March 1996 to 45.7% in March 2005.

• Data also shows that the share of agricultural credit cornered by farm sizes of more than 5 acres has increased

• Tenancy is informal and tenant farmers do not get access to credit(GOI, 2007).

• The NSSO’s 59th round tells us that while 26 per cent of farm households were in debt in 1991, that figure went up to over 48 per cent – almost double by 2003

• In states like AP the indebtedness is 82%, Kerala has 64% , Karnataka has 62%

02000400060008000

100001200014000160001800020000

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Farmers suicides in India

No. of suicides

Source: NCRB 1995-2010Total 270,940 in 17 years

• two-thirds of the suicides are occurring in half-a-dozen States that account for just about one-third of the country’s population

Year Male Female Total1995 8295 2425 107201996 10897 2832 137291997 11229 2393 136221998 12986 3029 160151999 13278 2804 160822000 13501 3102 166032001 13829 2586 164152002 15308 2663 179712003 14701 2463 171642004 15929 2312 182412005 14973 2158 171312006 14664 2396 170602007 14509 2123 166322008 14145 2051 161962009 14951 2417 173682010 13592 2372 159642011 12071 1956 14027Total 228858 42082 270940

• 19 per cent or nearly one-fifth households in this country are women-headed

Farmers ‘ Suicides in India: Gender distribution

Farmers Suicides Distribution, 2010

Female Male Total %

upto 14 years 12 4 16 0.63

15-29 years 165 563 728 28.83

30-44 years 137 824 961 38.06

45-59 years 40 573 613 24.28

60 years & above 41 166 207 8.20

Total 395 2130 2525

State Farmer Suicides Difference (2nd Avg-1st Avg)

1995-2002 2003-2010

Andhra Pradesh 1590 2301 +711

Assam 155 291 +135

Karnataka 2259 2123 -136

Kerala 1292 1071 -221

MP+Chhattisgarh 2304 2829 +525

Maharashtra 2508 3802 +1294

Tamil Nadu 992 866 -126

Uttar Pradesh 640 531 -109

West Bengal 1426 990 -436

The table only includes States whose annual averages have risen or fallen by over 100 farm suicides between the to periods. It also treats Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh as one unit for data purposes.Source: NCRB Accidental Deaths & Suicides in India Reports 1995-2010

Further worsening….

• GM technologies in all crops and animals• Increasing public sector with drawl from research,

extension, marketing• Reducing subsidies• Futures trading has become mantra …including FCI

planning to enter• FDI in retail• Banking correspondents system to disburse loans and

subsidies• Increasing weather vagaries

CENTRE FOR SUSTAINABLE AGRICULTURE

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