120o E

5o

15o

25o

35o

5o

15o

25o

160o W160o E 120o W

5o

15o

25o

35o

5o

15o

25o

140o E 80o W

Nitrate C

oncentrations (M)

8

6

4

2

0180o 140o W 100o W

Hawaii

Equatorial Box Project

Nuka Hiva

University of Maryland, ESSICBigelow Laboratory

NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental LaboratoryUniversity of Maine

University of Maryland, ESSICCanadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis (call 250-363-8319)

Oregon State University

This graphic shows the first principal component for the full model domain for SST, SSS, and surface NO3, DIC, nDIC, and pCO2 (nDIC is DIC normalized to constant S=35), and the means of these same fields within the 'box'. As you can see, the box mean is a pretty good indicator of the largest mode of variability across the whole domain. Jim

Revisiting the Box Project Proposal

Top-level Objective:Pilot study addressing the question, “To what degree can we confidently detect and predict change in carbon cycle components of aquatic systems and what are currently the greatest sources of uncertainty?”

Key Components:Evaluation and intercomparison of ‘Conversion Models’ and ‘Coupled Models’ focused on the surface mixed layer within the Equatorial Box and involving comparisons with field data

8oN

8oS

4oN

4oS

1oN

125oW140oW

1oS

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

6/97 6/98 6/99 6/00

0

40

80

120

6/97 6/98 6/99 6/00

0

40

80

120

6/97 6/98 6/99 6/00

0

40

80

120

6/97 6/98 6/99 6/00

0

40

80

120

6/97 6/98 6/99 6/00

0

40

80

120

6/97 6/98 6/99 6/00

Prim

ary

Pro

duct

ion

(gC

/mon

th x

107

)

Date Date

5oN-8oN

2oN-4oN

1oN-1oS

2oS-4oS

5oS-8oS

Prim

ary Production (gC

/month/bin x 10

7 )C

oupled

Mod

el =

Conversion

Model =

Coupled ModelConversion Model

TOTAL8oN-8oS

8oN

8oS

4oN

4oS

1oN

125oW140oW

1oS

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

6/97 6/98 6/99 6/00

0

40

80

120

6/97 6/98 6/99 6/00

0

40

80

120

6/97 6/98 6/99 6/00

0

40

80

120

6/97 6/98 6/99 6/00

0

40

80

120

6/97 6/98 6/99 6/00

0

40

80

120

6/97 6/98 6/99 6/00

0

40

80

120

6/97 6/98 6/99 6/00

0

40

80

120

6/97 6/98 6/99 6/00

0

40

80

120

6/97 6/98 6/99 6/00

0

40

80

120

6/97 6/98 6/99 6/00

0

40

80

120

6/97 6/98 6/99 6/00

Prim

ary

Pro

duct

ion

(gC

/mon

th x

107

)

Date Date

5oN-8oN

2oN-4oN

1oN-1oS

2oS-4oS

5oS-8oS

Prim

ary Production (gC

/month/bin x 10

7 )C

oupled

Mod

el =

Conversion

Model =

Prim

ary Production (gC

/month/bin x 10

7 )C

oupled

Mod

el =

Conversion

Model =

Coupled ModelConversion Model

TOTAL8oN-8oS

Revisiting the Box Project Proposal

Proposed Approach:Four field studies. After first cruise, results will be used to test and tune model parameters.

Models will then be executed to predict Box properties during second cruise. After second cruise, results will be compared to predictions and models further adjusted. Cycle continued for all cruises.

Key Properties:Algal biomass, primary production, POC and DOC

Additional Questions:

1. How do uncertainties in model predictions change if uncertainties in initial conditions are reduced? Do predictions improve if the model state is fit to extensive observations at time zero?

2. Can information on advective properties within the study volume, from measurements or the Coupled model, improve predictions of the Conversion models by providing insights into the recent history of the water mass?

Revisiting the Box Project Proposal

Conversion Model #1: POCCompare/relate field measurements of cp and bbp to POCCompare field bbp to satellite inversion bbpCalculate POC from satellite and compare to coupled model

Conversion Model #2: DOCCompare/relate field measurements of cDOM and DOC – possibly employ additional propertiesCompare field cDOM with satellite cDOMCalculate DOC from satellite and compare to coupled model

Conversion Model #3: Algal biomass & ProductivityCompare field pigment biomass to SeaWiFS and MODIS standard pigment productsEvaluate phytoplankton carbon biomass estimates from scattering propertiesCompare Chl:C variability with physiological properties (PI data)Compare field NPP data to field-based and satellite-based NPP estimates from chlorophyll- based models (e.g., VGPM) and carbon-based model (CbPM)Evaluate relationship between NPP model error and variable fluorescence propertiesCalculate NPP using field-tuned NPP models and compare to coupled model

Coupled Model AnalysisCompare model estimates of algal biomass (carbon, chlorophyll), NPP, POC, and DOC with field dataConduct comparisons with ‘Conversion Models’ identified above

Revisiting the Box Project Proposal

Deliverables“…an overarching goal for us is, at the end of this study, to be able to provide a quantitative, although regionally restricted, answer to the question of how well Conversion and Coupled models are able to describe and forecast variability in a select set of carbon cycle components. We also anticipate that, from this study, a more complete understanding will be achieved regarding similarities and differences between model classes and the basis for the discrepancies. At a more fundamental level, this project will (1) lead to a better characterization of a truly interdisciplinary ocean-atmosphere system that is a major component of the global carbon cycle, (2) contribute to the evaluation/application of remote sensing products and to the development of new products, (3) provide much-needed testbed data at an appropriate scale for evaluating future Coupled models, and (4) provide important new insights on forcing-response relationships for key model variables, such as N:C and C:Chl ratios.”

Achievements of the Box Project

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Box Project 2005 Stations (70)

Nuka Hiva

Thanks!Julie &

Rois

Achievements of the Box Project

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

-156 -151 -146 -141 -136 -131 -126 -121

Box Project 2006A Stations (70)

Nuka Hiva

Thanks!Kirby,Waynemike

Achievements of the Box Project

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-5

0

5

10

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-160 -155 -150 -145 -140 -135 -130 -125 -120

Nuka Hiva

Box Project 2006B Stations (83)

Thanks!Julie,

Rois &Wayne

Achievements of the Box Project

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-5

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Box Project 2007 Stations (102)

Nuka Hiva

Thanks!Toby,

Kirby &mike

2005 2006A 2006B 2007

SST x x x x

SSS x x x x

Chl (z) x x x x

Nuts (z) x x x x

HPLC/Pig (3 z) x x x x

Abs-part (3 z) x x x x

cDOM (z) x x x x

3-vol CHN (3 z) x x x x

DOC/DON (3 z) x x x x

DIC (z) x x x

14C -Surface x x x x

14C -Profiles x x x x

14C Time-series x x x

Fractionation Exp x

DNA x

FRR x x x x

ac-9 x x

ac-s x x

C-star (2) x x x x

bb x x x x

LISST x x x x

Coulter x

Attenuation (z) x x x x

Backscatter (z) x x x x

Achievements of the Box Project

Measured properties:

Meeting Outline

Day I1) Project Overview (Mike)2) Collin (HPLC, 14C, cruise 1 optics, remote sensing reflectance)3) Emmanuel / Wayne (optics cruise 2 and 3)4) Break5) Giorgio (cruise 3 AC-S, cruise 4 prelim. results, Pete’s data)6) Mike (PAR, FRR, POC, PON, turner chlorophyll)Lunch7) Toby – Conversion model products 8) Wendy – Coupled model result 9) Jim Christian – More modeling (shoot for 3:30/3:45) 9) Group Discussion

• Cross-cutting themes• Model-model and model-data comparisons

10) Breakout • Subgroup real-time comparisons• Data reanalysis• ….or simply time for a walk, run, swim, etc….

11) Reconvene – discussion of breakout resultsDinner – Lobster!

Meeting Outline

Day II

1. Year 3 planning2. Challenges and division of labor3. Schedule for Cruise 4 data analysis and delivery4. Schedule of milestones5. Near-term papers6. Synthesis paper7. Next meeting

Copy of powerpoints for everyone + will distribute