12-Sep-2018 Coca-Cola European Partners Plc -...
Transcript of 12-Sep-2018 Coca-Cola European Partners Plc -...
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12-Sep-2018
Coca-Cola European Partners Plc (CCE)
Capital Markets Day
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CORPORATE PARTICIPANTS
Damian Paul Gammell Chief Executive Officer & Director, Coca-Cola European Partners Plc
Stephen Lusk VP Commercial, Coca-Cola European Partners Plc
Frank Molthan General Manager Germany Business Unit, Coca-Cola European Partners Plc
Manik H. Jhangiani Chief Financial Officer, Coca-Cola European Partners Plc
Sarah Willett VP Investor Relations, Coca-Cola European Partners Plc
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MANAGEMENT DISCUSSION SECTION
Damian Paul Gammell Chief Executive Officer & Director, Coca-Cola European Partners Plc
So, good afternoon, everybody, and herzlich willkommen in Wiesbaden. So we even brought the weather that we
promised you in Barcelona to Germany, so there should be no complaints.
First of all, I want to thank everybody for taking the time to join us. We're very excited to be in Germany and also
obviously to tell you where we're at in our CCEP story, and obviously we'll have plenty of time for Q&A later today.
I would like to just share with you that today obviously does contain some forward-looking statements and
information. So I'd like to draw your attention to our forward-looking statements in terms of governance. In terms
of the agenda, very quickly I'll start off with a quick look back on what has happened since we created CCEP.
Then we'll turn to the most important agenda for today and tomorrow, which is to share with you how we see the
future of our category and of our business.
I'm very pleased that we're joined by Sol, our Chairman and Sol will also take you through her views of the
business a little bit later on today. Tim Brett from The Coca-Cola Company who is responsible for Western
Europe also joins us. And I'm very proud and pleased that we're joined by a number of the CCEP leadership team
who you'll also have a chance to hear from today either in terms of the plenary session but also out in the
breakout groups.
And I would like to emphasize that what you're going to hear today is really down to the efforts of that team, but
more importantly, down to the efforts of about 24,000 people who are not with us today who are thankfully running
the business and selling lots of cases. And clearly, the success we've enjoyed at CCEP is really in the hands of
those 24,000 people. So I'm very proud to share the story. I know my team are, and hopefully, you'll get a flavor of
the talent that exists in our business today and as we build for the future. Frank, who is our host, our GM in
Germany will also do a bit of a deep dive today on our German business, our biggest market and certainly a
market that we're very, very excited by.
So just onto the agenda and apologies some of this maybe some information you already know, but we like it, so
we'd like to share it again. Two years ago, more or less we sat together in Barcelona the creation of CCEP. We
shared our growth agenda and our story. We are now a business generating over €11 billion in revenue, over €2
billion in our EBITDA. We're across 13 markets. We would like to expand that. We'll talk a little bit about that later.
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As I mentioned, the business is built on the efforts of 23,000 employees, a lot of them in frontline sales. We'll talk
a little bit about that later. Not only are we one of the world's largest beverages business, we're also one of the
largest CPG companies, not just in Europe but also globally. And we are the largest Coca-Cola bottler by
revenue. So we play a significant role in the growth agenda of The Coca-Cola Company and not just in Europe
but we believe also we contribute obviously to their global agenda around growth and profitable growth for the
future.
When we envisioned CCEP and I'd like to call out Victor, who is over here our Head of Strategy. Obviously, you
saw and you'll hear from later, myself and James Quincey nearly three years ago, I think so, we started to have
conversations about CCEP and creating Europe's largest bottler but also the system's largest bottler. Once we sat
down and looked forward to creating CCEP, we shared with you three objectives that we felt were critically
important in the first phase of our journey.
One was to reset the base for profitable growth; clearly that was a big opportunity in Western Europe. Secondly,
we committed to deliver synergies to the bottom line. And thirdly, and for me most importantly, we took a longer-
term view at this business and start thinking about building for the future and I'll talk about each of these
individually just to share how we feel we did against those commitments.
So in terms of resetting the base, and we have talked a lot about this over the last couple of years, but clearly
we've inherited the business that generally and there were some exceptions, but generally, it was not performing
on the top line. It was not delivering revenue growth, and critically for me it was not delivering revenue per case
growth. Because in the bottling business you start to get your revenue per case growing you can contribute to
long-term sustainable growth.
We started to take a number of initiatives, which you can see on the right hand side, some of the bigger decisions
we took and they did impact volume at the time were to stop very, very deep discounting. And I remember
speaking to a number of you as we came out of 2016 and into 2017 and we saw some volume declines in our
businesses in France, Belgium and GB in particular, and also in Germany where we decided to stop high level
discounting or free bottles, because it wasn't creating value for our business, it wasn't creating value for our
customers, and it wasn't allow us to bid – allowing us to build a bigger business outside of retail.
We also de-listed a number of unprofitable SKUs particularly here in Germany, and we did enter into some
difficult conversations with our customers during that period as we felt the price realization in the market was a
key driver of value for our shareholders, but we also recognize that the category could sustain higher value from
the consumer which ultimately would create more profitability for our customers. Not all of our customers liked
that story at the beginning, but we got through most of those negotiations, and clearly in 2018, we've had a similar
conversation in France that I'm now happy to say we've passed through and our business is now back to where
we'd like to see it in France.
But I think the results are really what is important. As we came out of the merger in the middle of 2016, we started
to see our top line revenue growth returning. As we came into 2017, on the back of some of those decisions and
some headline pricing, we started to see our total revenue grow, but it was really driven by revenue per case
focus, as we really wanted to build back in solid profitability on a unit case level, and that is continued in 2018. So
what you're seeing in our current estimates is a revenue per case growth of about 3% in 2018, very, very solid for
Western Europe, and a revenue growth in absolute of 2.5%.
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The delta, if you look at the gap is obviously volume. And when you look at where that volume delta is coming
from, clearly, we've had the sugar tax in GB, which has impacted volume. And secondly, we've had obviously our
discussions in France which has impacted volume. And thirdly, we've had a slightly softer summer in Spain, which
we'll talk about. So – but on a net-net level driven by our unit case performance, we're very pleased with our
revenue performance 2017 and 2018.
The second objective was to deliver the synergies. And again, this is something that we were very transparent
about, which at the time obviously caused us some ongoing discussions around, is it net to the bottom line, is it
net up to the bottom line, are you reinvesting, are you not reinvesting. We were very clear that we wanted to
deliver the net synergy number to the bottom line. The good news is as we exit 2018, we will have delivered a
100% of the run rate. And I think that's something we're very pleased with. I would have to say Nik and I are
particularly pleased that we can move on from a synergy conversation. But we're going to keep that dialogue
going under a very strong competitiveness and productivity initiative at CCEP. So we don't believe that the
synergy capture is the end of us being a competitive organization. We don't believe it's the end of us being able to
be more productive. But clearly, we want to move that agenda to one of competitiveness and productivity as we
look at the future.
In terms of where did the synergies come from, obviously, procurement was our biggest leverage just over €100
million, but as you can see across our supply chain and in our business, we clearly took out cost and drove
productivity. I've recently been in our shared service center in Bulgaria and Sofia, where now we have over 700
employees. And again, that capability has allowed us to leverage a lot of productivity across our back office at
CCEP.
It's amazing facility. It's got lots of very young, very talented, very ambitious people who really want to contribute
to the CCEP future. So that's allowing us to drive some more standardization and harmonization across the back
office. If you look at the synergies in terms of the run rate, obviously, coming out of 2016 was a half year period,
2017 and 2018 were clearly the two years where we did most of the heavy lifting to deliver our synergies. And on
a cumulative level, we get to the €250 million to €275 million level.
In terms of some of the metrics that we've been tracking internally, a key one for us was to reduce our operating
expenses as a percentage of revenue. Again, that's a journey, but we're very pleased with where we've got to.
Clearly, we had a big opportunity both in manufacturing, but critically in distribution sites, which we don't tend to
talk a lot about to rationalize our footprint across Western Europe. You'll hear a little bit more from Frank today on
that part of the story in Germany, which clearly from the manufacturing and distribution opportunity was our
biggest market.
And then finally and the one that I think excites us the most because clearly this is where we can generate
sustainable revenue growth profitably which will flow to the bottom line and create a lot of value for our
shareholders. And that was to reenergize the top line of our business. So no matter how much we could deliver in
synergies mathematically when you start to grow the top line of this business the right way, you really start to
generate a lot of free cash flow and a lot of profitability.
And back in Barcelona, recall that some many areas that we felt from the initial pre-merger work that we did that
we felt that we could really make a difference on. No surprise e-commerce, digital is a big part of our business
today, and it's going to get bigger. We consistently rank very highly with our customers in terms of our e-
commerce and digital capability. In GB, over 12% of our revenue today is going through an online platform. So,
globally, that's one of the highest and we see that accelerating across all of our markets. And we also see strong
growth across our discounter platform.
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And I think it's good today, we're in Germany which really was the home of that retail format. They're great
customers. They provide a great consumer experience and are winning, and it's critical for us to keep winning with
them not just in Germany, but across CCEP. And one of the big benefits of putting CCEP together was to start to
work on best practice sharing. And one of the areas that we focused on initially was to leverage the expertise out
of Germany with these customers across our markets. And we're seeing the benefits of that both in terms of
listings, promotions, but in terms of revenue and profit growth, and again that will continue.
We also recognize, and again Germany is a good example, that in some of markets we were underperforming
outside of retail. And there was lots of reasons for that, but a lot of our markets were predominantly retail-focused
markets. And one market that wasn't was Spain where we had a very healthy balance of over 50% of our
business coming from outside retail. That's critically important for us for the future because that's where we build
brands, that's where we generate a lot of margin, and that's where our consumers and customers are prepared to
pay a higher price for our brands. So you'll hear a lot today about a renewed focus around or away-from-home
business, our HoReCa business.
And the final point is when we put our business together, we had over 6,000 frontline commercial people, by far
and away the biggest sales force in Western Europe and the muscle of our business. And as we look forward, we
really want to personalize the interaction with our customers and digitalize the transaction. Because we firmly
believe that our customers value those personal conversations, that interaction with a qualified professional
salesperson, leveraging technology, but you can't replace those face-to-face conversations in outlets store by
store, street by street. And we believe with that 6,000 that's in our current cost base is an amazing opportunity for
us to keep working on that individual interaction. So, they were the four areas that we talked about in Barcelona.
And we believe we're making solid progress across all of them.
We're also continuing to focus on five simple imperatives or priorities in our business. And again, we've shared
these when we created CCEP. First one is, we want to continue to get better at being a very customer-centric and
execution-focused organization. The bottling business lives on execution. Our role in the system is to make sure
that the right brands and the right packs at the right price are pervasively distributed across our territories. That's
what bottlers do. And when bottlers do that really well, they create a whole lot of value for the system and for the
shareholders. This is a journey, in many of our markets; we're at the beginning of trying to roll out that customer-
centric particularly from a digital perspective interaction.
The second priority is top line revenue growth. Again, it comes back to the reason we created CCEP. This is a
great part of the world to do business in. It's a very valuable category in Western Europe, very different to some
other part of the world and it's growing. So for us to create sustainable value, we've got to grow our top line. I'll
talk a little bit about that later because it's focused on two areas.
And thirdly, when we created CCEP, we had in this box with strategic cost management. And that really was our
commitment to deliver the synergies. We've now replaced that with competitiveness because we believe that
going forward, we've got to broaden that lens to be a competitive organization, whether it's in the market, whether
it's in our cost base or whether it's in the way we run our supply chain. So competitiveness is our third priority.
And they're underpinned by two enablers that we're very passionate about. One is sustainability and the culture of
our business, and we'll talk a lot about that today. There is a lot of conversations around the sustainability of
plastics in our industry. We see that as a key challenge and also an opportunity, and we're very positive that what
makes this business great are really two very simple pillars. Great brands, coming from The Coca-Cola Company,
and great people. When you put those together, it's a winning combination. So we're very much focused on
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building talent and capability and you will get a chance to meet a lot of our talented people today and tomorrow.
And all of that and Nik will share with you a little bit later will deliver sustainable shareholder returns.
So that's all you'll hear about the past, because the rest of today and tomorrow is pretty much all about the future.
We're very proud of what we've achieved, but we truly believe we're only at the beginning. And the reason that
The Coca-Cola Company and our shareholders put this business together was there was a bigger, more
compelling vision for Western Europe, and that's what we're going to talk about for the rest of today.
As we think about that we look at it on under a very simple framework. The four areas that are going to drive that
shareholder value at CCEP. The first one is portfolio diversification. So, on the back of the company's total
beverage commitment, offering more brands, more packages, and more categories to our consumers, and that's
something we've a big opportunity to do in Western Europe. We are still predominantly a sparkling business and
within sparkling in many markets, we're still a cola business. So, we have a lot of headroom, which we'll talk about
later.
The second priority is volume. That may surprise some of you, but as we focus a lot on price and mix, as we enter
new categories and new channels, volume starts to play a bigger role in our revenue story. And as we look
forward, we'd expect a third of our revenue growth coming from volume, a third from headline price, and a third
from mix; so a much more balanced revenue growth story going forward. And finally, execution, so driving that
pervasive distribution that I talked about earlier. So, these are the four areas that we believe will steer that
revenue guidance that we've talked about, and at the heart of it is doing it sustainably in terms of our This is
Forward commitment and winning with our customers.
So, to outline the future, I'd like to invite Stephen, who is our Vice President of Commercial just to share with you
the work we've been doing with The Coca-Cola Company to take a longer-term view of the revenue growth
opportunities across our territories. Stephen? ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Stephen Lusk VP Commercial, Coca-Cola European Partners Plc
Thank you, Damian. Good afternoon, everybody. For those of you that I haven't met, let me introduce myself. I'm
Stephen Lusk. I'm 30 years in the Coke system. I work in Victor's team, core commercial strategy. We work within
CCEP to develop pan-market, above market the portfolio strategy with The Coke Company, and the capability
that we need to deliver to win and the growth strategies for the future. I've spent 15 years with Coke Atlantic. The
last four years I spent in Southeast Asia, running the BIG Bottler business as a CEO in Singapore and Malaysia
for Southeast Asia. And in between, I spent about seven years, eight years in Germany. So, it's great to be back
in Germany again with Frank and the team and great to be in a great business.
So, one of the things I'd like to share with you today is in over the last few months, we've been looking at where
the future holds and what the future holds for CCEP. And one of the things that we will see as we look to the
growth for the next 10 years is we'll see a number of areas that we see. One, we're in a dynamic category in
NARTD. It is growing and it will continue to grow. Two, the categories that we see growing, in sparkling and stills
will continue to accelerate. Thirdly, that's because it's big and it's diversified. And with that diversification, we
believe that we need to get much better segmentation. So, you're going to hear us talking about as we look to
grow and as we look to grow our margin and as we look to grow the business across all of our markets, we're
going to be taking that from a much – [ph] lens (00:19:37) much through the segmentation of how we look at a
diversification of [ph] what we win (00:19:42).
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So, that's going to be the messages in the future. And to start with, you all know that NARTD is a great place. It's
growing. You all know that it's growing faster in Western Europe perhaps not that you know against FMCG. And
perhaps what you didn't know as well is that brands are driving in NARTD the growth which is very different to
what's going on in FMCG. So that in its instance is a good place and we continue to see the growth of our brands
driving our NARTD growth over the next future, in the next 10 years.
We also said that it's big and it's diverse. And I think what becomes important is the market is big in NARTD and
growing. It's diverse as well. You have a sparkling portfolio, but you also have a very diverse portfolio in the other
areas of stills, whether that be water, juice, energy and then new categories that are known or not known to us
and that are starting to grow even faster. And within that diversification, you also have a market where it needs to
look at being more segmented and out-of-home where you see retail and out-of-home obviously growing. And the
great thing is that we are positioned well as the number one value creator in NARTD, and NARTD is the third
largest category grower within FMCG. So, good to be growing, good in a diversification and diverse with our
segmentation.
What is also important is as we look to the next 10 years, we see that sparkling will continue to grow off a large
base and, as Damian just said, our business is predominantly sparkling and there are lots of opportunities in that
for us. At the same time, we're very excited about the opportunities that we see in the other categories coming
whether that be in water, tea, energy, or those categories that we're just entering like ready-to-drink coffee or
others like plant based. So, we see the opportunity that again the system would traditionally look at sparkling and
stills, we again [ph] go the lens down (00:21:50) to look at the segmentation of where we need to be winning
within sub-segments and sub-categories. And again, you're going to see good growth over the next 10 years. And
again, good expectation from us as we segment and go into other brands with which we believe we can win at
scale.
And what that means for us obviously was sparkling over the next 10 years is, when I came back to Western
Europe after four years in Asia, I was surprised about a number of things. One, if you look at our flavors business,
traditionally, we would have talked about sparkling and cola and everything else. We're having and wanting to get
into much better segmentation as we look at flavors, cola lights, mixers, adult [ph] straight drinking (00:22:35) and
those areas where we believe we've headroom for growth. So when I came back and we saw that we have a 30%
share in flavors, and if you look at the work that we've done with the Coke Company the last 18 months in Fanta,
we've rejuvenated Fanta, given it new positioning, give it new advertising, give it new packaging, given a new
boost of investment, given a sales force focus, and it's growing at high-single-digit growth.
We see that – [ph] we know winning (00:22:59) share we can do that with other brands. A second example I
would give is, in the Light Cola category, we have a 66% share and probably over the last three years we've been
very focused on Coke and Coke Zero. Yet, if you look at it Coke Light or Diet Coke in GB and Coke Light across
the continent is a huge opportunity. And we see that having two brands winning in Cola Light and Coke Light, Diet
Coke and Coke Zero, we believe as the category shifts more to Light Cola that we're going to be able to win. So
that's another change that we're making in our segmentation and the brand investment that we have. But what's
more important I suppose as well is as bottler, and as Damian says on driving pervasive availability is when you
look at the way in which we sell, and how we sell and where we sell our brands is it becomes important to look at
the retail, but more importantly the out of home and the segments that we look at.
Traditionally, across the system globally the bottlers would often look at the home market and the out-of-home
market. What we are seeing as we diversify and we look at our segmentation, we see that the future in retail is
going to be big box will slow down, but e-commerce, discount, discount value convenience, convenience will
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continue to grow. So that means we need to have even greater segmentation as we execute and as we strategize
with the company on what brands we should be putting [indiscernible] (00:24:25).
Secondly, as we look to out-of-home, we look to HoReCa, we look to on the go, we look to at work, we look to
leisure, we look to travel/transportation, all of these segments we believe are going to be the energy for growth
and the future of our business where we can get higher margin and where we have the scale with our sales force
when we get it right as we do in Spain. So, this is a great opportunity for us, and we see that being a key driver in
our segmentation for growth in the channels that we operate outside of home and away from home.
So, it's a big opportunity for us. It's growing dynamically. It's diverse. We need greater segmentation and to do
that, we believe, that with that greater segmentation, we can grow more sustainably and with greater and more
improved margins. So, to do that, we also need to look with the Coke Company at how we segment the
categories and the brands that we play in. So, one of the things we've been doing is we've been looking at the
changes we see coming with our consumers and shoppers and what they're going to be wanting to drink. And as
we see people looking for more healthier drinks, as we see technology changing how people drink, as we see
new influences or sustainability becoming a bigger and more important play, we need to be able to respond to
that in the brands, with the packs, the categories and the channels that we sell.
Among the things that we've continued to do is as our product portfolio diversifies, we're moving into immediate
consumption. That means that smaller households in Western Europe with one to two people, or as we see
smaller baskets where people tend to shop more often or on the go drink more often, that we will be offering new
products and immediate consumption, which means that we will be value-accretive in the margin that we can
place. So, as we move into new categories, you'll see us doing it in small packs, immediate consumption that
ensures that we maintain our margin at or above those that we have in the soft drinks business. This becomes
very important to us.
As we then look with the Coke Company, traditionally we have looked at how consumers and motivations that
they drink and why they drink. And traditionally, you would look at the right hand side of the top box in the
quadrant and say we would play with our sparkling brands as Damian said in Western Europe, a good place and
a role in socializing, fun, enjoyment. But we have not developed a category or a portfolio for the other areas.
And if you look at Western Europe over the next 10 years, you will see that on the bottom right unwind,
harmonizing, you will see the top left self-indulgence, energizing and you'll see nurturing, those motivations are
what consumers are looking more for the future. That means as we look to the bottom right, we'll be introducing
products and categories with scale like tea, where it sits well with the consumer on unwind and harmonize. If you
look to the top left, you'll see us thinking about energizing with our Monster portfolio or even where we think about
self-indulgence and energy where Honest Coffee or other coffee brands may sit.
So again, with the Coke Company, we're looking at how we segment the categories that we play in so that we
have the brand propositions that can win. When we do that, we then also have to make sure that our sales force
can execute that. And so, as a diversified portfolio and a greater home and away-from-home market, we've taken
that lens further and segmented between home and out-of-home with the occasions and the drinking moments as
why people drink, where they drink. This becomes really important because when we want to launch in a category
with a brand in a segmented way with scale, we know where we can go to go after the money.
So, I take the example on the right hand side leisure, socializing/nightlife. Big category for us of around €1 billion
in mixers, in adult mixers, that's where people when they're out in Western Europe they're looking for with-alcohol.
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That's why you'll see us entering into new categories with the likes of Royal Bliss in Spain, Schweppes 1783 and
more news to come with other brands.
If you look on the left hand side, you'll see that we have different occasions. For example, breakfast or snacking,
which fits perfectly with others for Western Europe and how people want to look for something a little bit different
from either their juice or a soy drink or a milk and those are the ways in which we are able to then segment with
the sales force and then go after that and make sure that we're executing in the right way.
We already see this happening in the market. So, in Western Europe in the last 12 to 18 months, we can already
see some of these trends happening, whether that be the accelerated of SKUs from NCBs, nearly 70% of
everything that came to the market in the last 12 months was a non-sparkling product or whether that's even in
sustainability, whether it's on packaging, it was presented, nearly half of it launched was a non-PET. So, you'll see
from us as well today many more products in glass, many more products in cans. You'll also see many more of
the SKUs being under 1 Liter, and this becomes really important for the margin, and the margin that we look for,
for the future. So it's happening in the market and we see that, that will continue.
Lastly, I think you know an exciting future also has to come with some realism and pragmatism, and that
realism/pragmatism is that we need to also front up to some of those areas that we see that could be potential
headwinds or challenges to us and that we already see how we want to deal with that. Whether that is as Damian
talked earlier about packaging and the movement on PET and single use and recycling and how we're going to
handle that, the diversification of our portfolio, whether that is in consolidation on customers, where we see
continued consolidation, which will challenge obviously the way in which we do our business, which becomes
even more important as to why we need to have a diversification and a segmentation in out of home or even
where we have competitors as we enter new categories or an existing categories where we have strong
competitor – competition against us.
So I think those things we've built into the pragmatism as how we look to the future. But the future still remains
very exciting knowing that those challenges confront us and that we deal with them in a way with which we
already [ph] can see them (00:31:09). So an exciting future, NARTD is growing. The segments with which we're
operating whether it would be sparkling we'll see growth and we're well set up to capture the headroom for that.
Stills and all the other categories that we'll enter is a big opportunity for us with low share. And last, but not least
as we diversify, we're going to go into a segmented way to execute on how we do that.
So thank you, with that I'm going to hand back to Damian who is going to tell us how we're going to do that.
Thanks. ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Damian Paul Gammell Chief Executive Officer & Director, Coca-Cola European Partners Plc
It's easy know. So, thank you, Stephen. Just to come back on a couple of points that Stephen touched on that I
think are critically important. We see the category going from about €100 billion to €130 billion of revenue. When
you look at our current position, we're capturing about €0.29 in the euro in terms of value share consolidated. So,
we have a good strong share position that gives us a lot of relevance for our customers. When you break that
share down, it's quite interesting that beyond Classic Cola, which is also we see returning to growth in terms of
transaction and our share is about 80%. Our share drops dramatically to 60% in Lights and we know we've a very
strong good competitor in the Cola Light segment. We're addressing that now two light cola strategy, which is a
big change.
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And then you drop even further down to flavors where even with brands like Fanta and Sprite or mezzo mix in
Germany, fantastic brands, we've still only managed to capture 30% of the share and then it really drops. You get
to the Energy category with all of the momentum what we've enjoyed on the back of the Monster portfolio, we're
still only commanding a 20% share in that category, and it's growing and it's dynamic. And then if you move to the
other areas that Stephen highlighted that really are growing very fast in the area of nutrition, nurture, harmony, we
either have no share or we're below 1%.
So, as we look at the category growing and this category will grow with or without us. That is the reality. We are
leading the growth today, but we've got massive share opportunities within the segments that we talked about.
And I just want to talk a little bit about how we want to go after that opportunity. So, for the next 30 minutes or so, I
just want to give you a little bit of context and detail on the plans that we believe will unlock that revenue growth
and then Nik will follow-up to sharing with you how we'll translate that revenue into obviously profit, cash and
shareholder returns.
When you look at it, we talk a lot about winning today to win tomorrow, and that's the mindset that we've adopted
because that is the reality of the markets. I don't believe anybody in this room would give me a hall pass if I said
we're not going to win in 2018 or 2019, we're going to start winning in 2021, please trust us. It doesn't work like
that, and our customers, it doesn't work like that.
So, we are winning today and we believe that gives us the platform to win tomorrow. So, that's the language we're
using internally. To win today, we've got to keep growing from our core. It's a fantastic business. It generates a
whole lot of profit. It generates a whole lot of cash and it's an area that we've got a lot of expertise and we're
getting better. But we also recognize we've got to grow more brands to win tomorrow and that's really the two
areas that we want to focus on today.
So, the first platform is really one we share with the Coca-Cola Company and building on the quality of insights
that Stephen shared with you and believe me we could have spent a whole today sharing with you all of that data
behind the segmentation and diversification. It's extremely rich. And one of the breakout groups you're going to
enjoy today is around data analytics and we've got a wealth of data. We wanted to share with you just of the top
line areas that gets us excited. From that you end up having a great conversation with Tim and the Coca-Cola
Company around how do we continue to broaden our portfolio to address those consumer needs. And we're
looking at that across a range of brands that you're all familiar with I'm sure in terms of reinvigorated sparkling
portfolio that includes Classic Coke. Classic Coke in terms of value creation for our customers is still by far and
away the number one. And we're seeing that brand respond extremely positively to our new packaging formats
and growing transactions and ultimately growing value.
So, we're excited about that in the context of what some people feel is a challenging environment. We're also very
excited about our sugar-free range, which going forward will be in excess of 50% of our sparkling portfolio; it's
already there today in GB. And then we move across the categories where we believe we've got winning brand
platforms. At the higher value-end of the consumer proposition, so generating good margin for ourselves and our
customers, but with a reason to win. We truly believe with the company, we've put propositions to our customers
and consumers that have a reason to win and a good chance to win.
I suppose one great example of that has been our success with Fuze Tea, it was a big brave decision to transition
from Nestea, a brand that's well-established and was a good brand to move to completely new platform called
Fuze Tea. If you look at where we are today across all of our markets, it demonstrates that when we get behind
the brand with the Coke Company, we can really generate a whole lot of value. And again, we've done the same
in energy and we're just starting in the area of ready-to-drink and fruit based beverages.
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So we see some encouraging results as we continue on the journey. We are very, very confident about our Coke
Light and Diet Coke proposition. Those of you from North America I think will have heard or experienced a
change that we've seen in the Diet Coke platform there; you'll see pretty much the similar now in Western Europe.
We've taken the work that we've done in North America, brought it back here and we believe that's giving us a
winning platform, particularly on the back of the light flavors.
Fuze Tea, leading in a lot of our markets. Stephen talked about Fanta, a brand that really required a little bit more
attention and a little bit more love. We've seen a lot of innovation around energy, and I'm particularly excited
about the opportunity to continue to premiumize the best brand in the world Coca-Cola. We see consumers in
Western Europe who've got a lot of disposable income responding extremely positively to glass being sold in
retail; four packs, six packs enjoying the most premium beverage experience in our home from a glass bottle. And
honestly, that's something that we've just started to do. So, we're very excited about that. We're also very excited
about mini cans, pick and mix.
So, offering consumers smaller packaging at a premium that they're happy to pay generating more margin for our
customers, but driving a lot more transactions in the Classic Coke category. So, that's the first pillar, and you can
hear a little bit more about that later from Leendert and [ph] Lauren (00:38:41). We've got a lot of those beverages
for you to try.
As a bottling business, quite rightly, I'm going to spend most of my time on the second pillar. So, as you broaden
your portfolio, as you segment your market much more scientifically than we ever did before, as you use digital to
understand what's happening in that market more and more, you have to change the way you run the business.
You have to transform your route to market and your sales capability to match the opportunity. And that's what I'd
like to share with you in a little bit more detail. Putting both of those together, we believe sets us apart to win.
So, how do we think about our journey at CCEP against that revenue growth opportunity? First of all, we believe
we've got best-in-class revenue growth management capability. So, really understanding how we can leverage a
brand/pack proposition. We've got new segmentation. You're going to hear a lot about key accounts, they're a big
part of our business. We've got, as I said, the biggest sales force in Western Europe that gives us a lot of
opportunity. We're trying different routes to market. Some of you may have picked up in the media.
In Germany, we've recently entered into a joint venture with Krombacher and Bitburger two of the biggest beer
companies in Germany to launch a digital platform to allow our customers and their customers purchase all of
their beverages through a combined platform. So, we've just started that trial and it's a learning opportunity for us,
it's been well received in our German business. That's just gives you some examples of how we're trying to be
disruptive in the way that we get our brands and our products to market.
We are investing a lot more in technology. You'll hear a little bit about that later in the breakout groups. And
clearly, sustainability, and I'll talk a little bit about particularly the plastic agenda, which is front and center in
Europe today.
So, revenue growth management again something that I'm sure you're familiar with. But clearly, as a bottler, this
is where we make the difference between a average margin business and a great margin business. And that's
why we put a lot of resource both in terms of technology and talent behind it to make sure that as we grow
revenue, we grow revenue profitably for ourselves and for our customers. It starts with the consumer. So, we've
re-orientated our dialogue much more as a company to the consumer over the last two years, and it's embedded
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in what's good for our customers. And both of those coming together, we believe, allows us to provide a
proposition that's good for our consumers, our customers and importantly for our shareholders.
We've looked at all of the occasions that Stephen talked about, we've prioritized them and then we broadened our
package up offering across the business to make sure we can meet them. We've prioritized what we believe are
the 10 biggest consumption occasions. So, again, we've tried to narrow it down, so we can execute against a very
focused agenda. And these reflect the €130 billion worth of value. So, internally across each of these areas, we
can share with you exactly how much value is at play against allocation, we can tell you what our share is today
against allocation, and we can tell you what our competitor share is against allocation. And that's allowing us to
move to much more segmented marketing campaigns with the company and sales execution campaigns.
And this just gives you a flavor of what that can look like for One Brand. So, traditionally in Western Europe, if you
came here four or five years ago, the Diet Coke or cult-like brand pretty much stopped here. You would have
seen a lot of large PET, too much to be asked, and you would have seen a lot of large can packs. And again that
gets back to what we talked about in terms of resetting the base, changing the price/promo strategy.
You'll now experience in Western Europe a very rich range of packaging opportunities that are much more
premium, much more enjoyable and are packages that our customers and consumers are happy to pay a little bit
more for. So, as we expand our product and pack offering, we open up existing strong brands to a much deeper
range of consumers across Europe. That's one example.
Here's a real case in Belgium, a great business, traditionally a strong market for us. But coming into the graze and
CCEP are transactions were declining. Again if you recall back in 2017 on a number of our calls, Nik and I spoke
about making big changes in Belgium around our pack price promotions. We built the business on buy two
multipacks of 1.5-liter get one free, so 18 bottles. Most people can't lift it. And a lot of people can't fit that in their
cars. And we were losing transactions. We may have been growing volume periodically, but we are losing
transactions.
We completely re-orientated our pack pricing and took the money we were spending on large PET promotions
and allocated at a too small or higher value transaction focused packs like the six-pack iconic glass bottle. On top
of that, we completely reset the shelf, so we put the mini packs and the mini cans in the glass right in the middle
of the beverage fixture. And we're seeing sustained results coming out of that and that's something that we're
rolling out across our business.
Another example and Stephen touched on it when we did the segmentation in Spain, traditionally a market that
we would have felt we were very, very strong in and we are. But when we looked at that, we said there's a whole
segment that we're not participating in with just a whole nighttime mixability adult drinking occasion. And again,
with the company, we decided to launch a brand called Royal Bliss exactly against that segmentation.
So, it's an example of going from the insights that Stephen talked about, understanding the value, understanding
the profitability and then having a great discussion with The Coke Company around, well, what brand do we
believe has a right to win in that opportunity. And again, we're very pleased with Royal Bliss and this brand is
being rolled out beyond Spain across CCEP as we go forward. So, you will see that brand playing a role in
markets like Germany and others as we build on the success of Spain. So, two fairly simple examples of taking
three strategic insights into real action.
This is an area that I believe will set us apart as a bottler within the Coco-Cola system. As we've encourage The
Coke Company to expand the brand portfolio and become more segmented, as a bottling business we have to
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also segment our sales force. We have to move away from generic groupings of home and away from home into
really being able to deliver segmented execution. And if you want to launch a brand like Royal Bliss, you need to
be strong in bars and nightclubs.
And if your sales force is not structured that way you're not going to be able to get the brand to market. And that's
the simple reality. So, we are now restructuring our business across Europe, to better reflect and again no
surprise the segmentation that Stephen highlighted.
So, as we diversify our portfolio, we also segment our sales force to allow us to have segmented execution
against that €130 billion opportunity. The good news is, we can do this efficiently with the use of technology. So,
from a cost perspective, this is leveraging an existing cost or expense. And you will enjoy hopefully tomorrow the
experience of that technology in the hands of our sales reps. So, very, very segmented. And again, I think, this
will set us apart from our competitors, but also across the coke system.
You don't win in Europe without winning with key accounts. And Stephen mentioned, we expect those key
accounts are going to get bigger through consolidation. We recently did some very exciting work with Bain to
basically benchmark our capability in this area. We felt we had a lot of opportunities. So, we wanted to go outside
and basically score ourselves. And we asked them to score us against what are called Bottlers, and but more
importantly to score us against other suppliers in this area.
And I can look to the number of surveys, they also went into each of our markets at very short notice, which
wasn't challenge for some of our people and on demand said give us your best key account presentation or
document that you believe is the best one you have for one of your big customers in your market. And they took
all aback, and we went through it and we got fantastic insights.
And we were and are doing a lot of good things. But clearly with key accounts, we've got to get a lot better in
Western Europe, they're getting bigger and they're getting more demanding. So, we have moved our agenda
obviously to beverages for life being a scene versus just a sparkling conversation. But clearly, we've also moved
our agenda to an area that Nik and I are excited about which was net margin and cash.
So, as a lot of you will recall, we changed their incentive plans to include free cash flow, which completely
changed the dynamic at CCEP, and Nik will share with you the results of that going forward. But as we were
having a conversation about cash internally, it's not a surprise that that conversation started to go external. And
along that journey someone said, well, that's amazing how much cash we make with customer A. I wonder how
much cash they make from us. So that project quite naturally evolved into a conversation about cash flow
generation for our customers.
And when you sit with a customer in Europe and you have a conversation about the amount of cash our brands
make, it's a very different conversation than just profit, margin or investments. So, a much richer agenda, and
we're investing behind capability building with our people to make sure they have the skills and the insights to
drive that.
The other area that we are very focused on is driving distribution. So, as we look at that segmentation, clearly if
you walk around Berlin, Paris, London, you'll probably find a Coca-Cola, you'll probably find a Coke Zero or Coke
Life, but in a lot of outlets you may not find a Fanta, and you may not find a Sprite, and as we evolve our portfolio,
your chances maybe finding a Fuze Tea or an Honest Tea may even start to drop a bit more.
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We have good distribution but when we step back and look at the opportunity, it is an area that in some of our
markets was not invested enough over a number of years for a lot of different reasons. We're focusing on growing
distribution. We're focusing on growing coverage. We're changing the number of visits per day, all on the back of
a salesforce.com platform. So, when we created CCEP in Barcelona, we shared with you initially our thinking
around the sales force automation tool that's now two years on and maturing nicely, and we're also investing a lot
in coolers. So, as we build our portfolio that those brands have the space in the market. So, four areas that we
believe will drive that frontline execution capability.
I mentioned Germany and our trial with the beer companies, as a bottler we clearly want to own the relationship
with the customer. We clearly want to personalize that interaction and then digitalize the transaction. And clearly,
we want to work across a number of route-to-market options. Today at CCEP, we're trialing direct online
distribution. We're trialing beer collaboration in Germany where we partner with brewers. We've got a spirits
partnership in Belgium, which allows us to transform our route-to-market. We're working with wholesalers who are
there on air, IT platforms and we're doing transfer orders. So, we're working across a range of options. So, when
we get the right brands, we get the sales force coverage that we can get those brands to market. And we've got
some principles obviously that will drive margin for our wholesalers, but more importantly for the business going
forward.
In the guidance that we talked about going forward, we have called out a significant investment in CapEx as part
of NSR. There're three areas to that. One is obviously supply chain. So, as we innovate packaging that requires
Ron and his team to deliver more capability inside our plants.
The second, which I mentioned, is coolers. So, about a third of our CapEx is going into cold drink equipment and
a third is going into this area. And you're going to hear more about this today, but we honestly believe that
investing in IT, beyond that maintenance level is something that will set us apart in Western Europe in terms of
digital, in terms of automation and in terms of productivity.
So, we are putting a lot of efforts behind this. We also have convened a digital advisory board. So, as we look at
the journey that we need to make in technology and digital and we looked at our internal capabilities, we said we
really need to build out a network of people to support us. So, we went to the market and said, we're setting up a
digital circle. We'd like to have five or six industry leaders from outside of beverages to sit in that circle, is there
anybody interested.
Today, we've got directors from Ocado [indiscernible] (00:52:30), from one of the largest banks globally who sit
with us five times a year and challenge our agenda on digital and on technology. And that's really externalizing
CCEP to a much more creative conversation around digital and technology.
We're also working on that external agenda beyond technology. So, we recently had a suppliers, our second
suppliers conference in Berlin where we brought in over 100 of our suppliers. We pretty much shared within the
growth agenda that we're sharing with you today. Obviously, they're a big part of that journey.
We spend a lot more time with people like you across the globe to hear what you expect from a business like
CCEP, and how you feel about our company going forward. We're a big part of the industry group now with
UNESDA. So, we're leveraging a broader industry coalition in Western Europe. So, across a number of areas
we're trying to externalize the conversations, and we believe that's giving us better thinking. It's challenging us a
lot more because a lot of these stakeholders have a different view of our business, but allows us to move forward
with a more external agenda.
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That's also clearly allowing us to sell and communicate what our new brands can do for our customers a lot more.
And all of that ends up in a more digitally enabled business, and you will experience some of that in the break of
groups later.
So, finally, against that growth agenda and those enablers, there are two areas that we believe are going to
continue to challenge our business. I think Stephen, in his last slide, put it very well. We are very excited about
the growth opportunity, but we're also very pragmatic about some of the headwinds that are going to continue to
challenge our category. In some ways a lot of our dialogue last year was about sugar tax. In GB that sugar tax is
now in the market. And so, when you're seeing results of our GB business and the whole conversation is now
move the plastics, packaging and PET.
In 2017, we made some very bold commitments as a company, under the 'this is forward' commitments along with
The Coke Company. There were six in total. I just called at two this afternoon. One was obviously on the back of
the debate around sugar and calories, and we have a strong commitment to provide sugar-free options across all
of our portfolio. We're doing that. We're reducing sugar in our products that's underway. And we continue to offer
our consumers more choice in terms of the sugar or calories they'd like to enjoy with their beverages.
We also made some bold commitments around packaging. So, 97% of our packaging is recyclable. That is not
the case for a lot of industries. 25% of our PET that we use is recycled. We want to increase that up to 50%. And
we've made a commitment to take back 100% of our packaging in Europe. And we're currently in strong dialogue
in GB and Leonard can share that with you, one of the breakouts with the government on a scheme that will
encourage consumers to return all of the packaging whether it's cans or PET, so that can be recycled and reused.
But we also know that the agenda is continuing to move fast. So, we're very committed to our packaging
commitments, but we're also realistic that this conversation is continuing to move at pace.
And finally, I just wanted to share with you how we work at CCEP. We've had a fantastic start as a business. I'll
talk a little bit about how we operate the company in terms of our operating model. But pretty much what we
focused on when we created CCEP was not to get stuck into a whole lot of conversations around what our values
are, our vision, mission. We spoke to a lot of our people and they just kind of said, now that sounds like 10 years
ago. We said, well, what do you want to talk about? And they said, well, how do we want to work at CCEP?
When you work in our company, what is the tree like? And these are the five areas that guide us internally in our
business. So, a relentless focus on the customers on frontline that's reflected in the way we run the business. We
want to make the decisions as close to the customer and consumer as possible. We want to execute with speed
and agility. I think if you look at the innovation we brought to our customers and the number of new brands and
packs we've launched in the last 18 months, it was more than we launched in the previous five years. So, we are
moving a lot, lot faster.
We empower our people to win together. We've reduced our spans and layers dramatically, a big part of the
synergies that we delivered in the business was by simplifying our operating model and simplifying our
organizational structure to allow our people to win together. We've just conducted our first engagement survey. At
CCEP, we had a response rate of around 65%, which was quite high and our engagement score was at 69%.
So, again, a lot of work to do to move it up, but again I think a good sign that our people are engaged and they
are committed to our CCEP project. And finally, and I think you get that feeling for what we're talking about today,
we firmly believe if you've got a passion for growth, this is a great place to work, because there's growth
opportunities on every street, in every store, in every market. So, passion for growth for us underpins everything
we do at CCEP.
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So that's how we're taking that landscape of opportunity that we heard about from Stephen forward, relentless
focus on the market and more balanced growth agenda on revenue between volume, price and mix. So, back to a
third a third a third over the medium-term and working very hard with the Coca-Cola Company to drive that
portfolio diversification. All of it while remain very close to our customers and recognizing that our stakeholders
are going to demand a lot more from our business and from our category in the areas of packaging energy and
water.
I talk a lot about the Coca-Cola Company. And obviously, as a bottler, it's very hard to separate the role we both
play in the system. As I said, Tim has joined us and we'll have an opportunity for some Q&A with Tim later. But
clearly, by creating CCEP, we also had a chance to reset the relationship with The Coke Company in Western
Europe. And that's underpinned by, what we believe, are somewhat unique within The Coca-Cola Bottling
Systems and principles that we agreed on. We have got a shared vision. So, as we sit down with The Coke
Company, we talk about the same revenue growth opportunities and we align that against our annual business
plans. We've aligned financial incentives, so the company's profit and revenue stream is directly linked to CCEP.
So, when we talk about price mix, when we talk about smaller packaging, we're pushing an open door to Coca-
Cola Company, and we believe that's a big, big change. We have got a new profit sharing model, particularly
around NPD, because as we move into new categories, you've got to be comfortable to take risks. Potentially,
you've got to be comfortable that not all of these initiatives are going to work. And it's a lot easier to take those
brave decisions when you're sharing both the upside and potentially the downside. And that new model is
allowing us to move a lot faster because traditionally we got stuck in conversations around who took the risk, and
that's allowing us to drive a lot of that innovation that I talked about earlier.
We are a big part of The Coke Company's future. We contribute around 25% of their global profitability. So, when
you listen to James and the ambition he has for The Coca-Cola System, clearly CCEP being successful is an
integral part of that journey. It's very difficult for the math to work at The Coca-Cola Company if it doesn't work in
Western Europe. We're simply too big and we're profitable and we're growing.
And finally, we've got them on our board. They have an 18% shareholding in CCEP and they've got two directors
on the board. So, a very, I would say, integrated way of working with the company, built on some very, very solid
principles and foundations. And we've done a very clear role sort. So, who does what, so we avoid duplication,
and we can put all of that resource and effort into the market where it makes the most return.
So, in summary, why are we so excited about the CCEP journey, why do we believe we're just at the beginning
despite, I would say, two very successful years behind us? One, we've got scale. And when you look across
Western Europe, our leadership position in most of our markets is significant, and we believe we can grow scale
even more. And that scale will come from a bigger portfolio of brands. So, we start to get into new categories or
get bigger, and we've got scale in the marketplace, 6,000 frontline commercial people gives us scale, and we've
got scale in terms of supply chain. So, pretty much un-matched in Western Europe.
We have a realistic view of the future. The growth that Stephen shared with you, we believe, is going to potentially
become even more segmented and diverse. And we're also realistic about some of the challenges, whether that's
customer consolidation, whether it's a faster move to online digital, or whether it's our competitors, who in some
categories have done a better job than we have done over the last number of years. So, we're ambitious and
we're also, we believe, realistic of the challenges.
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We have been investing. So, since we created CCEP, Nik and I have been very clear, we want to deliver the net
synergy number, but the opportunity will not wait for us to invest. So, we have taken some decisions in 2016,
2017, and 2018 to get us more prepared for the future. And we believe that's the right thing to do to deliver long-
term shareholder value. We are more aligned with The Coke Company. We still have very good debates around
what they believe we're not doing well enough and what we believe they're not doing well enough, and that's the
beauty of this system. But it's done against those principles, so it allows us to grow together.
And I'm very pleased as the CEO of the business that the talent that we have, not just in this room, but across
CCEP is fantastic. They love our business. They love our brands. They love our customers and are very, very
excited about the growth agenda. And there's not many companies in Western Europe who are having those
positive growth conversations with their customers or with their employees, and that frankly inspires them as we
move forward.
I just want to close before I hand over to Frank, I know a number of times people have asked me how does the
business operate, what's your operating model at CCEP. If you go back to the original synergies commitments we
made, we talked about having a very lean center. So, we changed the way the business was run or the way the
biggest business was run and effectively downsized the center. We closed our operations in Atlanta pretty quickly
after the deal and we pushed accountability and ownership back out to the market. So, that leaves us with a lean
center and a very efficient shared services operation in Bulgaria.
We took a leadership decision that frankly we thought was common sense. But if you believe that the closer the
decision is made to the consumer or the customer, the better chance it is to be right and we firmly believe that.
So, we've empowered our business units a lot more. We changed our incentives, and so Nik and I were very
passionate about paying down our debt quicker than people expected and being able to do what we announced
this morning by generating a whole lot more free cash flow. And what gets measured gets done, we know that. So
we changed our incentive plans, obviously to keep profitability, obviously to include revenue because revenue
growth is a long-term objective, but critically to include free cash flow.
So, no one in this room on our team gets an incentive if we don't deliver what we committed to in free cash flow,
and that's just one example of how we're trying to continuously align the long-term objectives with our incentive
plans. We spend a lot of time sharing best practice, next week, most of us are in Amsterdam where we've got the
top 100 commercial leaders of CCEP coming together again to share experience around what's working and
what's not commercially. And that's leading to better conversations whether it's around learning from HoReCa in
Spain, discounters in Germany, or the work we're doing in GB Online. So, we continue to foster best practice, and
that's a trade-off to having a lean center.
If you have a lean center and you still want people to share, you've got to get them together. Otherwise, you build
a massive center and their job is to share across all units and generally nothing ever happens. And we've got a
great talent pool. So, we operate the business under five BUs: Great Britain; France; Iberia, obviously which
includes Spain and Portugal; Germany, where we are today; and Northern Europe. And Stephen is here from
Northern Europe, Leendert's here from GB and obviously Frank is here from Germany. And coincidentally those
three business units are having a great year. So, that's why they look happy.
So, now to Germany, so let me just share a little bit about Germany before I hand over to Frank. So, certainly a
market I know well. It's a market I'm very passionate about. It's also good that Frank is doing a better job running
it than I did. So, that's also good to know. It is the largest market in Europe. It is a Coke market. Our business in
Germany is over 85 years. It reminds me a lot of Spain. When you walk the market in Germany, you see a lot of
people drinking Coca-Cola. It's a brand that has got a lot of brand love and a lot of heritage in Germany.
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We are growing revenue, margin, and free cash flow, and Frank's going to tell you that story. It is not a
complicated business anymore. We have over a number of years, done a wonderful job simplifying our business
in Germany, and we are seeing the benefits of that in our results. That's simplifying it from reducing some of those
unprofitable brands and SKUs that we talked about earlier, simplifying our manufacturing footprint and
warehousing, and simplifying our route to market. So, we have taken a lot of complexity out of our German
business.
It is a business that is helping us at CCEP [indiscernible] (01:07:10) winners. So, it's no coincidence that the
biggest driver of our revenue outside of Germany and other markets this year has been our discounters. And it's
profitable growth and that comes on the back of learning from what we did in Germany, and we are leading the
category. We are leading the category in terms of value creation, and recently, I think last week, the year-to-date
numbers for the Retail segment in Germany put CCEP as the number one driver of customer value again in
Germany. So, we're very well relevant to our customers.
So, we've got big plans for Germany, and I'd like to hand over to Frank now who is going to share with you a little
bit more context on our German business. Thank you, Frank. No pressure. ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Frank Molthan General Manager Germany Business Unit, Coca-Cola European Partners Plc
Thank you very much, Damian. Good afternoon, everybody. Welcome in my own country. I met a few two years
ago in Spain when we presented our discount story, but to introduce me, I'm Frank Molthan, 30 years with The
Coke System in Germany. I have a finance background. I worked seven years to run the key accounts. I was
running field sales, four years I was the Head of HR, mainly responsible for the challenges and changes with our
[indiscernible] (01:08:30), I'm going to come to that later. And now, two and half years responsible here in
Germany as the GM.
I'm really proud about the success we achieved in Germany the last two years. Let me highlight three things. The
first thing is, we achieved financial turnaround in Germany. We are gaining NSR growth, we are gaining OI
growth, we took out complexity, we took out cost, and been generating cash, a strong success in Germany to
highlight, as number one.
Number two, we started the journey value before volume, and we take pricing, we work on mix, and we work on
growth across all areas, channel and packages. And third thing, we have a lot of opportunities, in the still business
and the NCB business, as well in Away From Home and I will also show that the next minutes on a few examples.
It's an exciting country. It's a really exciting place to work in Germany, and I want to highlight one number we are
the largest economy in Europe, the fourth largest in the world and it's growing. So, it's a really good place to be in
currently, that's base for our success the last two years and also good base for the coming years. We have €2.2
billion revenue in Germany from CCEP and roughly 20% of total CCEP, and we're the largest country and the
largest BU volume-wise.
On the slides, you see we are really strong dominated by CSDs, and as Damian said before, we have a strong
Coke market as well. We have strong opportunities still to grow Coke. We have two large brands with Coke Light
and Coke Zero to drive volume growth and revenue growth, and our sugar-free variances, and as well huge
opportunities in flavor as well.
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Similar to Stephen's slide, we have huge opportunities and a clear focus currently and as well [Technical
Difficulty] (01:10:35) on to grow our portfolio in NCBs and in Stills, and as well have a stronger focus on Away
From Home business. We have two really good examples, Spain and GB. We can learn a lot, we are sharing best
practice and we're going really forward to drive that business. So, clear share gains in Stills, NCBs, as well in
Away From Home is one of our key focus areas, in a €33 billion value market we are operating in.
To summarize the few success results in the finance perspective, you can see, we are growing NSR from €3.12 in
2016 to €3.43. The main achievement in 2017, we took really pricing and we changed our promotion strategy with
our key customers. This year we're having a good mix story as well, so we are driving our small packs and we are
creating again strong pricing with our customer and a very good mix story on top to that. And that brought us to
€3.43 in total. In the same time, we took out complexity and cost, and we took 5 points lower OpEx and our total
cost base in the last two and half years. And our margin is roughly coming from 8% to low double-digit as an
estimate for end of this year. So, a clear, strong value and profit story in Germany.
And on the right side, you can see we're generating a lot of cash, and I'll show it in more details on a few slides,
where we did it. All our current success and as well as the future is reflected in these four areas: Profitable
growth, cost base, revenue growth and aligned portfolio strategy and as well Away From Home footprint.
Let's go through the three things. First thing, as Damian and Stephen said, we are reducing number of SKUs.
We're coming from roughly 700 SKUs in Germany, currently we are on 450. So, we took out 250 SKUs in the
German business. Less complexity and far more profit. We have a strong way. We took out 11 million unit cases
unprofitable water business with Bonaqa, with all consequences, much of drive volume, much of drive value and
revenue. Second example, our largest package is the 1 liter crate, roughly 118 million unit cases in Germany. And
we had the promo price three years ago of €6.49 in the market for 12 bottles in a crate plus two bottles free. So,
we stopped that whole debate to go in the right direction and today and tomorrow when you are in the market, our
current promo price is €8.49, about €2 higher and no bottles free, a clear value story for our customer, as well for
our business and well-executed in the market together with our partners.
And the third example, we are really growing and dominating the discount business, and you will see tomorrow in
the market and we entered Aldi, six, seven years ago. We have three pallet places only for one package, the 1.25
liter and 5 SKUs. Tomorrow, you will see 6 pallet places in all Aldis, in all 6,000 Aldis, North and South in
Germany. The [ph] IC share (01:13:48) in Aldi is above 25% and we are creating value with Aldi in a growing
market and we're creating value for our business, a strong success and half of all pallet place you see tomorrow is
now small [ph] IC packages (01:14:03) with Aldi. And Damian mentioned before, [ph] regards to results (01:14:06)
last week, we have 6.1% growth, the strongest value driver in Germany, and also we were number two last year
and number one two years ago.
So, in the long row, we are really the strongest value creator for our partnership in Germany. Then, similar to the
example Damian showed for Coke Light, we are increasing our portfolio mainly on small packages, with a strong
focus on small cans, 0.15, 0.25, 0.3; as well RGB¸ 0.2 and 0.33 glass, and we are growing 7% with these small
packages [ph] this year (01:14:41) and we are growing 40% of our total revenue with the small packs. So, again,
a strong value story for Germany.
Second, we took out complexity and cost. 2012, we had roughly 30 plants in Germany. Today we have 16. We
have two water plants, one in [indiscernible] (01:15:03). We have aseptic line for our Fuze and Powerade
business [indiscernible] (01:15:13), and we have a strong reduction of complexity plant-wise. At the same time,
we had roughly 60, 70 distribution centers in Germany. Today we have 30. So, we reduced it by 50%, coming
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from more than 100 10 years ago in Germany when we have a fragmented bottling business, so strong
improvement to take out cost and complexity.
We are working very strong on our inventory days, we reduced it to 6, and as well on the whole cash
management with payable days and receivable days as well. So, again, a strong value story before volume and
totally different what we did years ago.
Portfolio management, you saw that as well in Stephen's presentation and highlighted by Damian. [ph] We
(01:15:52) still a strong CSD market in Germany. We are growing Coke, we're growing Coke trademark, as well
Zero and Light. We increased our portfolio in water, our Smartwater, you will see tomorrow in the market. With
Fuze, we are very, very strong and very successful. Over years we have built the brand Nestea, and when we
changed the business early this year to Fuze, we have roughly 39,000, 40,000 customers for Nestea end of last
year.
Today we have more than 43,000 customers for Fuze. So, a strong value and volume story with our customer and
very strong success, and we're still studying the honest business similar as Leendert did in GB with that brand.
And again, we are successful with Monster in a partnership in Germany and we started the business with [ph]
AdeZ (01:16:39) in the portfolio as well. Expanding footprint in Away From Home similar to the strategy Damian
and also Stephen showed you, we have roughly 1,000 salespeople in Germany. We're allocating resources in the
last 18 months. We took salespeople from home market and put it in Away From Home, the right people against
the right potential in the market. And we have today more than 700 people in Away From Home in the fragmented
new structure as you saw as well as the one and half hours. And we're going forward to deliver what's expected
and with the alliance strategy between all 13 countries.
We increased coverage, we increased calls per day, and we also increased the cooler placements in the last two
years and as well in the coming years.
In the interest of time, I could not touch these four areas, I want to highlight two. The first one is sustainability.
Maybe you heard a lot about returnable and fillable in one ways in Germany and you will see it tomorrow in the
market. We can deal with that complexity and the right thing to do. We have roughly 40% returnable, refillable in
Germany, and all packages in Germany are with deposits. So, we're getting all packages back. We have 40%
returnable, refillable, refilled and we have 60% packages, they are also coming back and we are recycling all
these packages. So, more than 99.5% of all packages are coming back and that was deposited in Germany. So,
good place to deal with.
A second example is collaboration. As you saw with all the changes in distribution center, in plants as well with
less people, we really work strong on the collaboration with our union and works council, and that builds the base
for the challenges and changes we achieved the last four years, and we have all the flexibility as well for the
coming years to go in the right direction and to execute what's needed with all the trends and also ways to change
our business.
And the last point to highlight on World Class Key Account, Stephen showed that in detail, we have as Edeka the
largest customer, roughly 130 million, 140 million unit cases in Germany. So the tool for key customer, Aldi, Lidl,
Rewe, and Edeka, are responsible for more than 80% of our total trade business. And they are growing with us,
they're driving value and we are also driving value with them together. So a strong key account story as well for
the business.
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And to finalize again, we are still going forward with our value before volume story, we will take pricing, we will
work on mix and we will grow volume overall, these are the three pillars as the base. Second, we will take out cost
and complexity. We have the flexibility with the contract [ph] we have this in (01:19:23) union to achieve what's
needed and certainly it will increase our portfolio as well our away-from-home footprint in line with our strategy for
total CCEP. And with that, I would hand over to Nik and big thank you to you. Nik? ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Manik H. Jhangiani Chief Financial Officer, Coca-Cola European Partners Plc
[audio gap] (01:19:40 – 01:22:10)
...off that cash as opposed to just moving and not making those right decisions for the business. Clearly, if we do
both those right, that generates a ton of cash. And we'll talk about that and it's great to hear everybody in the
business talk about free cash flow. As Damian said when we pull the company together and we started talking
about the metrics, operating working capital we saw as a big opportunity. But I remember having a conversation
with the board, Damian and I both positioning with them. This is not a finance initiative. This is a business
initiative. And as long as everybody understands that and we keep it simple, we will drive change. So, it was very
simple things that I'll talk about that we were able to do to be able to achieve that.
Clearly that free cash flow generation coupled with our balance sheet optionality that we have. We have a solid
balance sheet and I'll go through that in a moment, but clearly one that a lot would envy. But that balance sheet
optionality continues to give us along with that free cash flow generation, the ability to do the right things for the
business, but for all our shareowners as well.
So again just looking back, I know Damian said we're not going to dwell on the past, but it is nice to put up a
couple of charts just to remind you of where we've been and where we came from. So clearly, we grew EPS 13%
and we've indicated that we will grow 7% to 8% this year. Very proud of what we – what we collectively have been
able to achieve from a free cash flow perspective. And you can see the working capital improvements that we've
had. We've improved our payable days i.e., we're paying our suppliers later by about seven days. This is not just
about squeezing them. This is looking at the market practices, looking at our competitors and being able to see
where do we have those opportunities and actually balancing that price and that terms conversation as well.
We've been able to at the same time reduce our receivables by nine days. So that's a great achievement in two
years to be able to get down to what was a big pain point for us and partly a lot of this has been achieved without
necessarily going out in renegotiating terms and conditions with the customers because that's tough. When we're
trying to get price, when we're trying to get mix, when we're trying to get assortment in there, we also would love
to get better terms from them, but that's a challenge. So we've got to figure out where the trade-offs are. So a lot
of this was around internal housekeeping, invoicing accuracy, collecting on time, making sure disputes were
timely resolved.
So a nine-day reduction there. Today, I think we're pretty good when we look across our markets because we're
trending at about just under 50 days receivables term and then, we've reduced our inventories by six days as well.
So really pay our suppliers a little later without squeezing them. Definitely collect our money a lot faster and at the
same time, work with a lot less inventory. That coupled with everything that we're doing on the operating side
coupled with what we're doing on the CapEx and investment side still has allowed us to generate over a €1 billion
of free cash flow for 2017 and we've guided towards a €1 billion for this year. We've raised that twice. And quite
honestly, the second time has really come from improvement in operating metrics, but also working capital. The
first time was really from better working capital. So strong, strong focus on that and there will be more
opportunities going forward as well.
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When we look at our dividends, clearly, we started out this business and we had talked about a 30% to 40%
dividend payout ratio. We were at 35% in 2016, took that up to 40%, took that up to 45% in 2018 and just
announced this morning that we would be raising that to 50% as of the Q4 period. That is the intent that
management has. We will recommend that to the board, but of course, the board has to approve that.
And then, if we look at the focus on de-levering, clearly, you can see a 3.5 times net debt-to-EBITDA at the time
of the transaction have come down and we will exit 2.5 times this year, which includes the €500 million of share
repo that we will be doing in 2018. So clearly we still have opportunity if we look at that leverage range of 2.5
times to 3 times and I'll talk about that capacity that we continue to have going forward.
So again, if we now look at the opportunities going forward, you've heard from Steven, you've heard from Damian
around the big opportunity across our markets, €30 billion of revenue opportunity across our markets over the
next 10 years and we clearly believe there is an opportunity for us to get not just our fair share, I think a
disproportionately higher share. Why? Because you know if we look at the NARTD category and we are a big part
of that today, today we only have about 28% of that. We have an opportunity to grow our share within that
category. That category is growing faster than FMCG and we're very well-positioned as one of the top
manufacturers and one of the top value creators for our customers to be able to get our fair share of that growth.
We clearly have the scale, we've talked about that in supply chain, we've talked about that in terms of sales force.
So that scale is what we need to continue leveraging as we build out our brands, portfolio in the market. A great
example of that is Fuze Tea.
We launched that this year and already we're doing significantly better from a weighted average distribution
perspective in a number of markets than what we had with Nestea, which was the brand we had for several years
within the system.
So with the power behind a brand like Fuze jointly with the Coca-Cola Company and ourselves the size and scale
of our workforce in terms of our sales, sales people, the muscle and the might that we put behind it and the focus
that we put behind it, we can have success. And clearly those are the things we will continue to replicate across
as we continue to build out our portfolio of brands. We've reset our base, we've made some tough decisions,
we've got flagged from a number of you guys, concerns around the volume drops, et cetera. But those were the
right things that we have to do for the business. I think 2019 will continue to be a bit more of a resetting, right.
We've seen the large bulk of that happen. There will be the tales of some of that continuing to happen into 2019,
but clearly we feel then on we have a great growth trajectory ahead of us. And then clearly we believe that will all
help us with that low-single digit revenue growth.
When we look at that and Damian touched upon this, we've laid this out very simply to say there will be a return to
volume growth. The volume is going to come from a couple of different angles; one, SSDs are still growing. Okay.
And I think there's a lot of concern around the fact that sparkling doesn't grow. Sparkling is growing from a
revenue perspective. Transactions are growing and we'll talk about that in a moment. So we have an opportunity
to grow transactions in red Coke, mop immunization, smaller packs that's higher revenue. We have an opportunity
in lights.
Today, we are definitely at a much lower percentage relative to our full sugar portfolio in terms of the lights
portfolio and there's some great things that we're doing with the dual brand strategy that we have with Coke Zero
as well as Diet and Coke Light, it's a great opportunities there. Sparkling flavors. We are very under-indexed when
we look at that relative to the market. All right. We did a great investment around Fanta in the last couple of years.
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This year we've been growing Fanta in the high single digits, okay. That's after 10 plus years of probably no
growth. We're doing a similar thing with Sprite going forward.
And then adult mixers are a big opportunity for us where again we're under-index. So, I'm not necessarily saying
we're going to get Netflix type of growth, but clearly, we are going to get growth in the Sparkling category. Add to
that then we're growing from a very low base in the broader NCBs or stills category whether it is energy, whether
it is tea, whether it's ready-to-drink coffee, whether it's plant-based products, those are growing from a very small
base for us and clearly as you've seen, 70% of the growth is coming from those NCBs. So we will get our fair
share of that. So we clearly see volume playing at least a third of that mix on an average annual basis going
forward.
The other piece will come from price, because we do believe we continue to have headline pricing, but it's not just
about headline pricing, we've talked about opportunities that we have reset in some markets, but there's more to
go after. Frank gave you a great example of the 12 plus 2 that we were doing at €6.49, now at €8.49. All of that
wasn't just headline price, part of that was also pulling back on the promotional mechanics, right. So, better
promotional mechanics, depth and frequency of those is what's going to help us as well.
And then thirdly, mix, you've heard a lot about what we're trying to do from a small pack perspective, from a
convenience perspective, glass, small cans, small PET, all those will contribute positively to mix. So, I think again
volume growth coming from NCBs, volume growth coming from the – the sparkling categories that were under
indexed in today, clearly price opportunities in terms of headline, as well as promo efficiencies and then mix from
both a channel, brand and a pack perspective coming forward as well. So, we feel confident that we can deliver
that low-single digit revenue growth going forward.
And we've got some very early proof points but I think these are great proof points just to demonstrate our focus
and how we've been doing that consistently over the last eight quarters. So we start out with the away-from-home
business where we're under-indexed today, right. Roughly, our business is 60/40, the market is the opposite way,
right. So it's – we're 60/40 home – away-from-home, the market is 60% away-from-home, 40% home.
We have been focused on trying to grow our away-from-home business. That does not mean we are ignoring our
home business, we have a very profitable business in the home market across our territories. It is making sure we
protect and grow that, but at the same time outpace that growth with what we can get from the away-from-home.
So quarter after quarter, if you look at this since 2017, we have been growing our away-from-home faster than our
home business.
Damian touched upon this and we'll be talking a lot more about transactions going forward as opposed to just the
volume element of that revenue equation, but our transaction growth has been outpacing our volume growth
quarter after quarter. We have six datas as of this information, so we don't have that. But so it's new, but clearly
we will continue to be focused on this. And then, if we look at the premiumization piece around packs, that's a
very important part of what we're talking about from a mix perspective. So our smaller premium packs are
outpacing the PET packs. So small PET in this instance is growing faster than the large PET and that's exactly
what we want from what the consumers want, but also what is great for us from a margin and a profitability
perspective.
If we then look at our glass, our glass is growing faster than our PET and that's again where we want to be
focused, it's about premiumization, it's about better revenue realization and clearly better margins as well.
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And then finally, cans are growing faster than PET. So, again all proof points when we pulled this together around
some really good signs of our focus and how that's paying off for the business. Another set of proof points from an
angle of that consistent revenue per case growth. Damian touched upon this earlier, it was very important given
what we were going to be trying to achieve from a revenue perspective, we needed to get our pricing per case
right, and I'm not saying we're there, but we've made a tremendous progress.
But a lot of that has by – has come from what we've been doing in terms of diversification. Diversification both in
terms of our portfolio, but diversification also into smaller packs in the away-from-home. So again just to explain
this chart real quick, if we're at 100% index as average CCEP, you can see large PET clearly from a profitability
revenue perspective is lower on a per case basis. And then you can see small glass, mini cans and cans are
obviously higher. So that supports our whole focus around what we're trying to do to drive some of those smaller
packs.
And at the same time when you look outside of water all the other categories are also significantly higher in terms
of revenue per case realization versus the average of the group, and obviously where we have a large part of our
business in large PET. So hopefully these are both great proof points that we will continue to demonstrate to you
what we're trying to do across categories, across brands, across transactions to be able to drive that positive mix
and revenue realization for this business.
So moving down the P&L, clearly there's a big opportunity from a cost rationalization perspective. When we pulled
the transaction together, if you recall, we talked about the synergies of €315 million to €340 million. We did
reference to the fact that 40% of those were coming from what was, people trying to understand what was this
inflight synergy capture piece that we were talking about versus what were the combo synergies. The inflight
piece was really things that each of the businesses were doing independent of us coming together that allowed
them to drive productivity that we should be doing on an ongoing basis, right.
So, if you think about that and think about the opportunities going forward, that 40% that we highlighted was
largely focused around Germany, and largely focused around Germany because of what they had in the pipeline
from an angle of rationalization of their supply chain network primarily. So, we knew that was out and committed.
It was just about realizing that to the P&L.
But I think beyond just rationalization of supply chain from a facilities perspective, there is a big opportunity for
simplification of our network and that is something you will see going forward coming into what we will be talking
about. A good example of that is what we're doing actually in GB with the plant closure that we announced in
Milton Keynes. That's a great example of simplifying our network and you'll see more of that coming.
There's great opportunities when we think about procurement. There's a lot that we've done from a direct
procurement perspective. There's lots that we've done an indirect piece, but we've just put into place a buying
desk. We're cataloging things and we're driving people towards much more consistent buying patterns that we
can measure and track and ensure that we're getting the best price. So, there's opportunities from a procurement
perspective going forward. There's opportunities from enhancing our route-to-market. There's opportunities from a
flexible labor perspective, so there is a lot that we continue to do in supply chain areas led by Ron and the team
that is truly going to deliver some great results for us as we look at the next three to five years.
Damian touched upon the business capability program and I think that's going to be a critical game changer for us
as we continue to make the right investments from a perspective of revenue enhancing, revenue creative
activities and you'll see a lot of that in the breakouts today. It's about those data driven insights that we can
actually have, take actions on right away, and get the benefits to our P&L.
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That investment is going to help drive rationalization of the way we've got our business set up today. Not being –
not going to be able to go into a lot more details about that, just given what we need to be protective of in terms of
workers councils, et cetera, but clearly that has a big opportunity.
And then the third piece is really leveraging more what we've got in shared services. I think what we've set up
today with the 700 people is largely a finance transactions processing workshop. We've got a great team there
young and motivated as Damian said but we have just started building out some of the capabilities on HR and IT.
But again, we're still operating either through towers of order to cash or source to pay or operating in silos across
functions. We've got to change that and move much more towards end-to-end processes. End-to-end processes
will allow us to ultimately get to a global business solution.
Things that we're doing today are eliminating a lot of the work that we were doing there. We're standardizing a lot
of what we were doing, we're simplifying a lot of what we're doing and then we're automating as well. Robotics
today we've developed an in-house robotics team and Sofia, that's driving some great automations for us in 24
areas, that 12 months ago, frankly we didn't have. So those are great examples of things that we will continue to
do to be able to leverage that cost base and be able to drive more productivity and quite honestly, it's not just
productivity, it's allowing us to be competitive for the future as well, so we've got to stay ahead of the curve in that
space. So when you pull that altogether, you know, clearly we've delivered some great results in terms of our
operating margin. We've had 90 basis points of improvement in 2017 guiding for approximately a 30 basis point
improvement in 2018 as well.
Clearly supported by the top line growth and also supported by the synergy capture. We talked about the low
single-digit revenue growth going forward, strong focus around cost control, Damian put up a chart that talked
about our OpEx coming down as a percentage of our revenue, clearly that's an indication of a trend that you will
see continue. You've seen that in Germany in terms of what they've been able to achieve. So you will see a lot
more of that going forward as well. That will give us that low single-digit – that mid-single digit OI growth and we
are committing with that confidence that we will be able to deliver at least about a 20-basis point improvement
year-on-year in our operating margins.
So going forward, you will continue to see an improvement coming through that as well. And this will be across
the board in terms of the different territories having a different mix towards that, but clearly an opportunity in every
one of our markets.
Free cash flow, clearly very proud of that in terms of what we've been able to achieve and that's been able to give
us the confidence in terms of with a de-levered balance sheet being able to go out and announce the program
today and I'll come back and talk about that in a moment.
CapEx will continue at that circa 4.5% of NSR rate. It will be in the three areas that Damian talked about.
Remember we did talk about the fact that as we were doing this transaction, there were some investments that
we were making ahead of the curve, particularly as we restructured plants, optimized our networks, we needed to
enhance what we were putting into new lines. And so, you will see about a third going into each of those areas
going forward.
We expect that we can generate at least that €1 billion of free cash flow on a year-on-year basis, and I'll come
back and talk about that in a moment.
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The optimal capital structure, clearly we've de-levered. I talked about the fact that if we didn't announce a share
buyback program today, we would actually had been under that 2.5 times at year-end, just given how strong our
free cash flow generation was.
So we discussed with the board and given the fact that we don't necessarily see today or have a line of sight of
visibility around any potential acquisitions. We figured if something was to happen, it's still going to be in 2019,
announcing a share buyback program continues to give us the flexibility to be able to pause, rethink, pull back as
appropriate depending on the types of opportunities that are out there. But we have committed to doing the €500
million in 2018 or I should say up to on the €500 million subject to trading. Liquidity and what we can buy back,
but we think we should be able to achieve that.
So with that, we will then end the year at about 2.5 times, again at the low end of our range. 2019, clearly we've
indicated a program of €1.5 billion, there could be some more that could come in 2019, more to come in February
when we assess what's going on from an external market perspective, what's going on within the system, how our
plans look and we'll update you on that as well.
We've got a great debt maturity profile. If we look at our debt, in no given year, do we have a maturity that is over
our free cash flow generation. So while we've got a very strong revolving credit facility to draw upon €1.5 billion,
clearly our free cash flow generation can service the debt that we need to be able to repay in the event that we
don't go out and refinance that, for whatever reason in terms of the market availability of that.
We've got a 75-25 fixed floating mix, which is also great because we can take advantage of some of the lower
rates, but we've locked in pretty well into a great structure right now. We are committed to maintaining an
investment grade rating, but remember, our investment grade is today sitting pretty much at the top end of a BBB
plus and an A3 with S&P and Moody's.
When we've done some work trying to assess what our debt capacity is, clearly maintaining those ratings at the
levels that we're currently at gives us a debt capacity of at least €2.5 billion. So clearly we have opportunities from
an acquisition horsepower perspective to be able to go out and do something without impacting our leverage. If
we still wanted to stay investment grade and depending on how S&P and Moody's treated us, clearly we see that,
that range still at an investment grade, giving us capacity of €8 billion to €10 billion. So clearly the power that we
have in terms of our balance sheet structure at that leverage level with those – that commitment to the investment
grade debt rating gives us a lot of horsepower to go out and do the right things for the business.
And again, the 2.5 to 3 times is in no way locked out in stone. We will continue to assess that depending on the
economic and market conditions upwards or downwards, as well as what's happening from an M&A and a
landscape perspective.
We have been very disciplined around making our investments, I think as we look at our framework, we've laid out
a very clear framework to the business, we have IRRs, we have paybacks. And we're typically looking at ones
that are pretty low risk type of investment opportunities, having to deliver just a little bit north of our weighted
average cost of capital which is in that 7% to 7.5% type of range. But then clearly the returns that we're looking at
as we go on to medium and higher risk projects, with higher risk of execution might be in the mid-teens.
So clearly we're very disciplined with how we look at that but at the same time we're also focused around
ensuring that we're assessing each of our investments around alternative uses, including returning back to
shareowners.
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I touched upon geographic expansion, quite honestly we continue to be interested in expanding our territory
footprint, we're across 13 markets. We've talked a lot about what the opportunities might be, what we might be
interested in. We are interested in growing in Western Europe, and clearly that's where our focus is. But we can't
sit around and wait. So we will continue to give ourselves the optionality and the flexibility and hopefully I've
demonstrated that we have that ability with what we've announced, but also our balance sheet strength.
We will look at other adjacencies [indiscernible] (01:47:56) is a great example of that. I think you'll see more of
those coming along in terms of investments and route-to-market in terms of capabilities to be able to partner up
where appropriate. As well as what we will continue to do in terms of portfolio expansion. I think The Coke
Company has a great stable of brands that we're building on and leveraging. But there are a pocket of brands
across our European markets that we see that we might have the joint opportunity to go out and acquire.
We have a quarterly meeting between Damian and Tim and a few of us in this room, Victor and myself included,
and that's where we'll discuss those. And we assess those opportunities and see if they're the right fit and how we
might be able to leverage it not just across one market, but perhaps across CCEP or across the broader coke
network and system. We've done a great job in terms of managing those investments. And hence our returns on
invested capital over the last 2 years, 2.5 years since the merger have improved by 180 basis points. So that's a
significant improvement. And we're committing again with having that disciplined approach going forward, we will
see an improvement of at least 40 basis points in our ROIC year-on-year.
So, just pulling that back altogether, quality profit growth that we talked about, we're talking about 4% to 5% of the
mid-single digit OI growth, that gives us about a 20-basis-point improvement in our operating margins year-on-
year. We're talking about free cash flow generation of at least €1 billion with those disciplined investments that we
will make, about a 40-basis-point improvement in our ROIC and maintaining our optimal capital structure 2.5 to 3
times.
We did announce the intent to increase our dividend as I highlighted earlier, and you'll hear more about that in
October depending on the approval from the board. So, when we then looked at what we had laid out as our long-
term growth algorithm, we wanted to bring it a little bit into the mid-term, and hopefully give you the confidence
with what we've been able to lay out for your that, the revenue growth of low-single digit is achievable, and it's
going to be a balanced mix from volume, price and mix.
The operating margin expansion of 20 basis points, free cash flow, we talked about the capital ratios, ROIC and
the diluted EPS growth of mid-single digit. Clearly, depending on how we continue to use cash that will have an
impact on our EPS. Clearly, if we are able to do more share buybacks that will clearly have a positive impact on
the EPS as well. I talked about the CapEx, and I talked about the dividend payout ratio as well.
And then if we look at 2018, we have taken our guidance up. We've given clarity in terms of what we see on the
revenue growth line of 2% to 2.5% revenue growth, and that is excluding the gross up impact from the sugar tax.
We will exit 2018 with just over 80% of the synergies realized and at 100% run rate. I'm officially declaring, so
don't ask us on the call again, that we are closing down the synergy capture program at the end of this year, all
right. So, you've heard it here and that's what stays. We will talk about what the tale will be in terms of our
realized synergies for 2019 when we provide our guidance for 2019, but this will close out the synergy discussion,
hopefully move us to a much more of a normalized business going forward.
Our weighted average cost of debt is enviable. We're actually at about 1.7%. So, we've got a great weighted
average cost of debt that comes from those maturities that we have, but also the mix of the fixed and floating ratio
that we've pulled together.
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We remain committed to the effective tax rate of about 25%. And then we've taken up the operating profit
guidance to the top end of our 6% to 7% range, and we've taken up the EPS guidance from 6% to 7% to 7% to
8%. Talked about the intent of the dividend payout increase, our ROIC improvement for this year we're guiding
towards that 80 basis points, which is built into that 180 basis points that I positioned and showed you earlier.
We do expect even with the higher free cash flow generation as a higher level of CapEx, so we've guided towards
that being towards the top end of the €525 million to the €575 million. So, again, clearly operating performance as
well as our working capital benefits are paying off. And then, we've talked about working capital benefits of about
€200 million. We will execute the share buyback program actually starting tomorrow if all goes well and all the
documents are signed.
So, with that, I would just say, again, great category that we see ourselves playing in, clearly a bigger opportunity
versus what we see as broader FMCG growth. Great diversification when we look at the brands and the portfolio
piece, but great diversification when we look at the home and the away-from-home business. Our scale gives us a
great and well-advantage position within that growth curve opportunity. We've set the midterm objectives very
much in line with what we laid out. And then we will continue focusing on driving shareowner returns.
So with that, Sarah, is going to come up. She's trying to remind me, don't forget, you need to call me up. So,
Sarah's going to come up to wrap up with Damian and myself. ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Sarah Willett VP Investor Relations, Coca-Cola European Partners Plc
Is it working? Yeah, it's cool. Hi. It's not long now until you get a break. And there's a good reason why I'm doing
this, because Stephen and Frank mentioned earlier they've been in the business 30 years, I've been in the
business, it does begin with a three, but it's three months. Okay?
And as we started to build this presentation couple of months ago now, and certainly as part of my induction, I've
been sort of canvasing external perspectives on CCEP. And the following three questions really were at top of
mind for us in terms of what we needed to address. So, there are a little bit of a test as to whether these three key
takeaways actually address those external perspectives I've gathered, and I'm going to put them to Nik and
Damian to answer.
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QUESTION AND ANSWER SECTION
Sarah Willett VP Investor Relations, Coca-Cola European Partners Plc A So, without further ado, so we talked a lot about uncertainty about 10-year view. We heard that in a lot of detail
from Stephen earlier on, that you see a bright sustainable future for NARTD, but can CCEP really participate in
that growth opportunity? ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Stephen Lusk VP Commercial, Coca-Cola European Partners Plc A To me? That's a Damian. ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Sarah Willett VP Investor Relations, Coca-Cola European Partners Plc A That is for Damian. ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Damian Paul Gammell Chief Executive Officer & Director, Coca-Cola European Partners Plc A Okay. Thanks, Sarah. Before I answer the question, I mean, first of all, there was a lot of information in the last
hour and 30, 40 minutes. We have given you a copy of everything. We were quite deliberate to try and be as
transparent and open in all the detail, but not keep you here for three days. So, I hope you appreciate that we
have shared a lot. You'll have a lot of chance to ask questions later. And obviously, we'd be together today and
tomorrow. So, I'm sure we're going to get more questions in the three we're answering now. So I suppose that's
my point and we're quite happy to deal with them.
So, I think the way I think about this question is, we are actually not just participating today, but we are driving the
growth across NARTD. So, when you look at not just in Germany, I think Frank showed a picture where we're the
number one driver of value growth in the category, but that's pretty much true across our market. So, I think not
only we're participating, but we feel accountability and ownership to drive value in the category. And that's
something that we commit to our customers, something we commit to The Coca-Cola Company and it's
something we commit to the board. So we believe that as the largest player with the brands that we have and with
our scale, if the category doesn't grow and shame on us. So, we are doing it and we believe we will lead it.
There are clearly segments that we've missed like mixers and we've missed that. And Tim and I have had long
conversations about how did that happen particularly with the brand like Schweppes, which is frustrating. And
there are categories that are merging that we don't today have a brand in. I suppose what gives me confidence is
the level of detail that you saw from Stephen. And the way we're really trying to understand consumer trends and
segmentation, part of existing categories but also of the future. I believe are much better set up as a business
now to spot those opportunities earlier. And obviously if we spot them there, we can participate a lot earlier.
And I would like to highlight a point that Nik made, we're quite entrepreneurial about how we'll participate but with
the company but also through M&A. And we have scanned all of our markets to look for potential diamonds that
are not there yet, but in our system could really grow. So, you will probably hear a little bit more around the
entrepreneurial M&A in market where we look at the category, look at the opportunity to the land Stephen shared,
and clearly we figure out that the best way to participate is potentially to buy into a business.
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So, I think having those tools available with the balance sheet we have and gives me the confidence that we
cannot just participate, but we can actually lead to growth. We're also to emphasize quite pragmatic about some
of the headwinds. So, all of the growth figures that we shared with you today in that forecast, we have thought
about sugar taxes in more markets than GB. We have thought about potentially deposit systems in more markets
than Germany. So, we've also you know put what we thought was a fairly sober view on some of the headwinds
that are there today, and frankly, will be there tomorrow. And I think that also that pragmatism gives us a bit more
confidence. ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Sarah Willett VP Investor Relations, Coca-Cola European Partners Plc A Thank you. I think next question's question is actually for Nik. So, in light of that growth that you see outside of
sparkling, how do you profitably grow post the merger synergies that we're going to talk about after this year? ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Manik H. Jhangiani Chief Financial Officer, Coca-Cola European Partners Plc A Aha! So, Sarah has already got, I hope the rest of you did. We're not going to talk about synergies. But you know
quite honestly I think we've laid out a number of initiatives and this has again led under Victor who has both
strategy as well as the whole transformation initiatives of the business reporting [indiscernible] (01:58:54) small
team there that helps drive looking at some of those initiatives that will help us drive better productivity.
They will come with some cost, but we factored that cost into our cash flow guidance. But those are clearly some
of the things that I outlined and laid out for you, there's clearly an opportunity when we look at our supply chain
network in terms of simplification. We're terming some changes that we're piloting across some of our markets, so
in one of our markets called supply chain of the future, where we're really looking at what are the things that we
can simplify, what are the things that we need to digitize, where are the opportunities in terms of enhancing our
route to market, our logistics, our distribution network.
So, those are continued opportunities that don't just stop because synergy capture is complete. I talked about the
shared services center. I'm really proud about what we've been able to do and what our 700 people there have
been able to do, but they – we have a continuous improvement team in Sofia, led by one of my very high talented
individuals within the finance organization and they're continuing to look at productivity opportunities within the
Shared Services Center to be able to pull out 10%, 20% from efficiency every year, right. So, that means we can
do things a lot more effectively faster, better customer service, right.
The whole invoicing project was led out with the business units out of Sofia to be able to drive that invoicing
accuracy. When we started out that project we were at under 90% in terms of invoicing accuracy, today we're at
97%, right. That has huge efficiency gains in terms of making sure that the invoice goes out correctly the first time
and you don't need to do three more credit notes. But it also had a huge positive implication on our working
capital as I outlined.
So, we've touched upon a lot of things today on the surface for ourselves within CCEP that we see great
opportunities on. I think in five years, potentially we have a great global business services solution that is not
necessarily out of Sofia. I don't know we might have three locations. You know we're going to [ph] determine
(02:01:11) that. But clearly there's a lot more that we can be doing there than what we're doing today. And I think
the proof points are there, several of our board members have been out there, pretty much every member of our
executive leadership team has been out there and come back completely blown away, right, in terms of that
opportunity that we have.
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So, those are just some of the examples that continue to be out there in our cost base that we will continue to
attack diligently and systematically to be able to drive that leverage to the P&L. But don't forget the leverage is not
just coming from our cost base, the leverage is also going to come from our top line in terms of what we're going
to get from pricing, promotional efficiencies and better mix.
Stephen laid out for you every one of the categories that we're looking at is a higher revenue per case in terms of
that opportunity and I laid out that for you in some of the charts. That will help us drive some of that leverage
through the P&L as well. So, I think there's a dual approach in terms of making sure we get it from the top line, but
also an unrelenting focus on attacking our cost base diligently and sustainably. ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Sarah Willett VP Investor Relations, Coca-Cola European Partners Plc A Very good. Thank you. And my last question to Damian please. Actually I think you just started to touch on this
just now, so you do face structural headwinds and I hear a lot about this in terms of concerns, particularly around
sugar, plastic, and customer consolidation would be a good example. How do you feel that you are diversifying
these risks? ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Damian Paul Gammell Chief Executive Officer & Director, Coca-Cola European Partners Plc A Can I comment on Nik's answer first, am I allowed? ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Manik H. Jhangiani Chief Financial Officer, Coca-Cola European Partners Plc A Am I being graded? ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Damian Paul Gammell Chief Executive Officer & Director, Coca-Cola European Partners Plc A Yeah no, no. I think, we've had a lot of questions on when you take your underlying revenue growth, add the
synergies and our declared OI growth. Why is it not sometimes a bit higher, I think we've heard that question a
few times. ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Manik H. Jhangiani Chief Financial Officer, Coca-Cola European Partners Plc A Few times. ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Damian Paul Gammell Chief Executive Officer & Director, Coca-Cola European Partners Plc A Few times. And I think one of the things that some times we've talked about, but isn't factored in is we have taken
in the first two years of our business some bold decisions that in a given year have held back some of that growth
because some of the decision resulted in short term volume loss. We had that in 2017 with our promotional reset,
and we've had that in 2018, particularly in France.
So, I think there is a tendency on the bullish side just to look at the build without really understanding that some of
the right decisions in a 12 month calendar can pare back some of that OI growth. So, we expect most of them to
be through our business now but clearly they've been a big part of our story over the last two years. So, we are
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facing a lot of headwinds in some areas. So, I think on sugar if you would ask us when we were together in
Barcelona that you're going to face the sugar tax in GB, a change of the sugar tax in France, and some of the
Nordics where would our business be, I think we would have been very proud to be where we are today. I think
the reformulation that we've achieved, the move of our mix to over 50% out of sugar in some of our markets; I
believe is helping us deal with the sugar challenge. It's not gone away. We believe in offering choice and I
personally believe that nothing beats taste and beverages. So, and as long as we offer consumers choice on
sugar I think we're in a good place and we're doing that and all of our innovation have low or no-cal variance.
I think on customer consolidation this will continue. I think if you look at retailer margins in Europe, primarily due to
market oversupply in retail they've pretty much halved in the last five to 10 years. So retailers in Europe have
significantly come under profit pressure, and you've seen that in the results, that will continue to lead to
consolidation. What's interesting is the consolidation is moving beyond like-for-like consolidation to cross-channel
consolidation, so Tesco buying Booker. A large retailer buying a large wholesaler, so there is some new dynamics
coming up.
We're also seeing more collaboration. Tesco talked about collaborating more with other retailers and we're seeing
buying groups. So, that is part of our future. And I think a lot of what we spoke about today in terms of capability,
building so to engage with those bigger customers better is clearly something that we have to do. But in parallel
we do need to diversify our revenues, so as there is consolidation the more revenue we have in other channels
protects our P&L, protects our growth agenda and protects our margin.
So that segmentation that we talked about earlier is a critical enabler to win when the market in – and let's says
big retail continues to consolidate. So for sure we see that coming. And we're looking at – through actually
analytics, looking at what risk does that potentially create in our financials and our analytics tools allowing us to
learn a lot quicker. I think the big one is plastic. It's very difficult to sell a coke without a package. And that's the
reality. You can sell lots of cokes with or without sugar. In some ways the plastic debate has made us move on a
lot quicker from the sugar debate.
And I think it's something that we're very conscious of. We've made a lot of commitments around recyclability. We
lead the industry in that, we made a lot of commitments around reusing plastic in our packaging, we're leading the
industry with that. And we've made a bold commitment to take back all our packaging, but clearly that's not
enough. And so if you go back through a lot of what you've heard today, you'll hear a lot around glass, you'll hear
a lot around cans. So, as we look at the plastic challenge, we believe it's a sensible move to diversify our
packaging the way we talk about diversifying our channels.
So we are consciously making decisions around NPD and existing brands having a bigger role in cans and glass,
that does not mitigate the challenge on our existing plastic footprint. We are also looking at moving shrink to card,
so on a number of our markets, starting with France, we're looking at removing the plastic shrink from cans and
moving it to cardboard. We've also looked at the technology that I'm sure a lot of you heard about from Carlsberg,
where you can have cans that effectively are glued together with a small [ph] dot of (02:07:35) plastic and that's
something that Ron and the team are also exploring. But we need to have scalable solutions.
We believe that whatever we do in this arena, it's got to apply on a scale of the level. I don't think we're going to
get a whole lot of credit from the people who really matter our consumers, if we do one small thing and one small
market, and try and make it a big deal. At the end of the day, everything that we're committed to do in plastic and
packaging, we believe is scalable across our markets. But it is something that you're going to hear a lot more for
most about in the coming months and years. I think it is the right debate. Ironically, we've already started to
deemphasize plastic when we created CCEP through our PET strategy on promotions. That was very much a
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financial-driven objective, but it has in some ways, set us up to be better prepared for this challenge. So that's
something that I know our board and sol and I talk a lot about that we are concerned about. And we think we need
to do more and we probably need to do a bit faster, and that's something that we're committed to. ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Sarah Willett VP Investor Relations, Coca-Cola European Partners Plc
Great. Thank you very much. Now, those are my three questions. Now, you did have the opportunity right now to
ask questions. That will come later is as Damian said. Now, this is just move to the external audience listening
into this. This is the first of two webcasts. Just to say that we are aiming to the second webcast to start as
planned. And 5:15 that's Central European Standard Time.
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